Trying to Win another Tourney! (213.64 POINTS!!!) – Scroll down for a better description of how and why I structure my game notes in this manner.

Initial Thoughts: The SF D is still a question mark in my mind and a key to this game. If SF D is as good as in years past, D Jones and company are gonna have a hard time in this game. If Barkley is out, the SF D should be even more aggressive in their pursuit of the QB and of turnovers. I could see SF D setting up the offense to take advantage an aggressive NYG D. This one has blowout written all over it. Quick passes to Deebo and runs/screens that exploit the blitz are likely to lead to the TDs. The Giants will feature a bevy of pass catchers, but with a fierce pass rush and a swarming D, it’ll be hard to string together drives and hard to hit a big play. SF could be found running out the clock in the 4th as they did week 1 with the Steelers. Getting the TD scorers right is gonna matter (Can Juan Jennings sneak in for a TD?)

Tourney Winning Plays:

Game Environment:

My Plays:

Avoiding biases/Challenging preconceived notions:

At OWS, we look for the GAME ENVIRONMENTS that produce tourney winning scores. In addition, we need to know who the TOP PLAYS are (despite ownership) and not be afraid to play them! We look for ANGLES that allow us to fit the best plays into a lineup that is different. Finally, we need to be aware of biases that cause us to create misconceptions about the game/slate/players. That’s what I look for in this space.

Initial Thoughts: Before I read the NFL Edge I find time to do my own research and synthesize some of my thoughts about the game.

Tourney Winning Plays: Players who get enough volume and quality volume to post a tourney winning score on their own regardless of the game environment. Most DFS players will be building around these pieces.

Likely Game Environment and stacks within that environment to capitalize on in order to squeeze as many FPs as possible out of good games.

My Plays are the people I will be looking to roster from this game.

Trying to Win another Tourney! (213.64 POINTS!!!) – Scroll down for a better description of how and why I structure my game notes in this manner.

Initial Thoughts: Much like DAL, this is an obvious mismatch and KC will likely run away with this game. JM was talking about how KC is a team that looks for the TD on every play. This could be a Mahomes smash game as they put together multiple scores in the first half on way to a route. The KC D should have no problem containing Fields and company. KC offensive pieces outside of Mahomes-Kelce are always cheap but hard to predict. Justin Watson is the clear leader in air yards and I would look to him to put up a big game here at 3k.

Tourney Winning Plays: Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce could definitely make a tourney roster in this spot. (15.5k requires 60 FPs, but Kelce is a TE so you could settle for 55)

Game Environment: The Chiefs are facing a bad Bears defense. KC is at home. This is the 3rd game where good teams are starting to get rid of the kinks and dial in. The Chiefs have Mahomes. Mahomes is coming off a week where they only scored 17 points. Checks all around. Chiefs are going to score and the Bears shouldn’t limit them much. Fields has even struggled scrambling and the turnovers speak to how uncomfortable he must be. Is this a “nothing to lose” kind of spot? Mahomes is more of a sure thing, but Fields has a higher ceiling.

My Plays: I like Mahomes to get to 4x his salary at a high price. While Kelce is likely to put up points if Mahomes is to get to the tourney winning score, he is expensive and will be the natural partner on Mahomes roster. You will still have to differentiate the lineup.

Avoiding biases/Challenging preconceived notions: Living in Chicago I hear many people talking about this being Fields last year in football. I also know Fields has a super high ceiling. This is not a great spot, but maybe it doesn’t matter.

At OWS, we look for the GAME ENVIRONMENTS that produce tourney winning scores. In addition, we need to know who the TOP PLAYS are (despite ownership) and not be afraid to play them! We look for ANGLES that allow us to fit the best plays into a lineup that is different. Finally, we need to be aware of biases that cause us to create misconceptions about the game/slate/players. That’s what I look for in this space.

Initial Thoughts: Before I read the NFL Edge I find time to do my own research and synthesize some of my thoughts about the game.

Tourney Winning Plays: Players who get enough volume and quality volume to post a tourney winning score on their own regardless of the game environment. Most DFS players will be building around these pieces.

Likely Game Environment and stacks within that environment to capitalize on in order to squeeze as many FPs as possible out of good games.

My Plays are the people I will be looking to roster from this game.

Trying to Win another Tourney! (213.64 POINTS!!!) – Scroll down for a better description of how and why I structure my game notes in this manner.

Initial Thoughts: Cowboys stomp is how most people will see this game being played out and you can’t help but agree. We have a template for that in Week1 where they rushed 30 times and passed 25. ARI will put less pressure on them than NYG could, so maybe they tilt a bit more pass heavy, but the reality is, if DAL is in front they will slow the game down and rotate in different backs to steal points away from Pollard. This is a great spot for DAL to score TDs, but there is some caution should it turn into a blowout and the DAL D is the only good play.

Tourney Winning Plays: Tony Pollard has the right matchup, the right offense, and high volume on a team built to run. He has two things working against him. He is on the road and he is 8k. I think the positives outweigh the negatives, but again I could see him underwhelming at that price tag as well.

Game Environment: Cowboys should dominate and its possible the ARI D gives the Cowboys some trouble, but eventually DAL will win out and methodically march towards a road win. DAL should be able to move the ball however they see fit, and volume shouldn’t be a huge concern with them expected to control the ball and time of possession.

My Plays: Tony Pollard and Ceedee Lamb stand out as the best plays from this DAL team that should score upwards of 30 points. Both are priced around 8k and therefore need 30 FPs each to be a difference maker. Pollard has a better shot at that, but Lamb is taking on a huge role on this DAL team and should be a threat for 8/100/1 line with upside for more.

Avoiding biases/Challenging preconceived notions: Is DAL really that good defensively? Can anyone make them look beatable? Our opinion of this defense after facing NYG and NYJ is very high. Maybe they have a bad game.

At OWS, we look for the GAME ENVIRONMENTS that produce tourney winning scores. In addition, we need to know who the TOP PLAYS are (despite ownership) and not be afraid to play them! We look for ANGLES that allow us to fit the best plays into a lineup that is different. Finally, we need to be aware of biases that cause us to create misconceptions about the game/slate/players. That’s what I look for in this space.

Initial Thoughts: Before I read the NFL Edge I find time to do my own research and synthesize some of my thoughts about the game.

Tourney Winning Plays: Players who get enough volume and quality volume to post a tourney winning score on their own regardless of the game environment. Most DFS players will be building around these pieces.

Likely Game Environment and stacks within that environment to capitalize on in order to squeeze as many FPs as possible out of good games.

My Plays are the people I will be looking to roster from this game.

Trying to Win another Tourney! (213.64 POINTS!!!) – Scroll down for a better description of how and why I structure my game notes in this manner.

Initial Thoughts: The Panthers are playing on a short week in SEA (cross country) against an improving SEA D and a SEA team that would like to keep the game under control. Add in that the CAR D isnt bad and this one is probably a bit low scoring after last weeks SEA team played to a high total vs. DET. Probably leave this one alone and let others waste their money here outside of K Walker maybe.

Tourney Winning Plays: none

Game Environment: It would not be surprising to see SEA play the more traditional ball control game because it does not look like CAR has any business scoring in this game. Add into the equation that this is a home game in SEA where it is very tough to play and tough to score. I wouldn’t be surprised if SEA spent the game pinning CAR deep in their own territory and waiting for big plays to erupt from some of their playmakers while not risking too much on offense. If I am wrong, maybe I lose money in this spot, but probably not.

My Plays: I am almost certainly leaving this game alone.

Avoiding biases/Challenging preconceived notions: We like to think that SEA only pushes the tempo and gets aggressive when the other team forces them. What if that is not the case and SEA erupts for 30+ points in this spot with CAR not reaching 20. If this were the case and SEA scores 4 TDs, do we have a GPP worthy score? What if a couple players from CAR excel in a garbage time scenario, racking up PPR points at cheap prices. Could a skinny stack from this game win a tourney?

At OWS, we look for the GAME ENVIRONMENTS that produce tourney winning scores. In addition, we need to know who the TOP PLAYS are (despite ownership) and not be afraid to play them! We look for ANGLES that allow us to fit the best plays into a lineup that is different. Finally, we need to be aware of biases that cause us to create misconceptions about the game/slate/players. That’s what I look for in this space.

Initial Thoughts: Before I read the NFL Edge I find time to do my own research and synthesize some of my thoughts about the game.

Tourney Winning Plays: Players who get enough volume and quality volume to post a tourney winning score on their own regardless of the game environment. Most DFS players will be building around these pieces.

Likely Game Environment and stacks within that environment to capitalize on in order to squeeze as many FPs as possible out of good games.

My Plays are the people I will be looking to roster from this game.

Trying to Win another Tourney! (213.64 POINTS!!!) – Scroll down for a better description of how and why I structure my game notes in this manner.

Initial Thoughts: This should be fun! The Bills were rocking again in a home game vs. OAK and WAS shouldn’t pose many obstacles. In fact, what if BUF continues to have success scoring TDs in the red zone (their offense consistently excels at this) and pushes WAS to be passing against BUF? What if WAS creates a few turnover because that’s what Josh Allen does and this gives them some short fields? Could WAS give us a game here? its possible and the prices are pretty good on the WAS pass catchers here. I will caution that that WAS volume is completely spread out so far. Howell does not seem to lock onto a favorite WR.

Tourney Winning Plays: Josh Allen, Stef Diggs.

Game Environment: If the Bills are sort of allowing production inside the 20s, and their defense isn’t quite as dominating, but they limit points, doesn’t that kill the clock a bit. Josh Allen is much more of a passer than a runner in blow out wins, but all this is besides the point. Why do we care how effective Josh Allen will be? Because this is another spot where the Bills should find success and should score TDs. They are a great team inside the red zone. It sure seems like WAS will be able to move the ball, but the Bills buckle down inside the red zone and the volume is so spread out on WAS that you don’t really need to play a WAS piece if rostering Allen and Co.

My Plays: Allen + Diggs (or Davis) or all three. If one of the TEs is out, I would highly consider the other one, but we have also heard that each has an independent role on this team. I consider Kincaid to be like the Cole Beasley of old who is only worthwhile in close games where Allen is trying to pick up 8-10 yards with a soft defense in the 4th quarter. The main difference is that you can play Kincaid at TE.

Avoiding biases/Challenging preconceived notions:

At OWS, we look for the GAME ENVIRONMENTS that produce tourney winning scores. In addition, we need to know who the TOP PLAYS are (despite ownership) and not be afraid to play them! We look for ANGLES that allow us to fit the best plays into a lineup that is different. Finally, we need to be aware of biases that cause us to create misconceptions about the game/slate/players. That’s what I look for in this space.

Initial Thoughts: Before I read the NFL Edge I find time to do my own research and synthesize some of my thoughts about the game.

Tourney Winning Plays: Players who get enough volume and quality volume to post a tourney winning score on their own regardless of the game environment. Most DFS players will be building around these pieces.

Likely Game Environment and stacks within that environment to capitalize on in order to squeeze as many FPs as possible out of good games.

My Plays are the people I will be looking to roster from this game.

Trying to Win another Tourney! (213.64 POINTS!!!) – Scroll down for a better description of how and why I structure my game notes in this manner.

Initial Thoughts: I think this is one of those avoid games outside of the defense.

Tourney Winning Plays: none

Game Environment: The Jets offensive structure heavily points towards them focusing on the run and short passes, but NE will know this and be ready for it. NE will focus on the run and short passes. NYJ don’t need to know this – their defense will be able to adapt to any way NE attacks. The best spots to look in this game then are the running backs, who are pretty good here, and lucky TDs which I never build a lineup around.

My Plays: Rhamondre Stevenson might get enough volume to be considered at his price, but they have other backs and other red zone targets so its also very possible his “barely enough” volume is not productive and you end up asking yourself “why did I play the least desirable game on the slate again?”

Avoiding biases/Challenging preconceived notions: The Jets are a great defense against the pass AND the run. I think the pass D is hard to question and it will probably tilt NE to the ground. How good really is the run D of NYJ because its not surprising to think NE runs the ball 40 times here?

At OWS, we look for the GAME ENVIRONMENTS that produce tourney winning scores. In addition, we need to know who the TOP PLAYS are (despite ownership) and not be afraid to play them! We look for ANGLES that allow us to fit the best plays into a lineup that is different. Finally, we need to be aware of biases that cause us to create misconceptions about the game/slate/players. That’s what I look for in this space.

Initial Thoughts: Before I read the NFL Edge I find time to do my own research and synthesize some of my thoughts about the game.

Tourney Winning Plays: Players who get enough volume and quality volume to post a tourney winning score on their own regardless of the game environment. Most DFS players will be building around these pieces.

Likely Game Environment and stacks within that environment to capitalize on in order to squeeze as many FPs as possible out of good games.

My Plays are the people I will be looking to roster from this game.

Trying to Win another Tourney! (213.64 POINTS!!!) – Scroll down for a better description of how and why I structure my game notes in this manner.

Initial Thoughts: I peeked at the total, which annoys me, but this obviously an attractive spot for offense. LAC was able to prove right those who were predicting an up-tempo passing offense albeit without their star rusher and in a pass funnel matchup. The Vikings are gonna score points. They have plays to highlight Jefferson and other plays if LAC somehow figures out how to take that away. This game is highly likely to have 3-4 TDs per team and very possibly more for each team. Individual players will be highly owned here.

Tourney Winning Plays: a MIN pass catcher, a LAC pass catcher – Given the likelihood of these teams scoring points, the pace at which they play and the strength of the passing offenses, someone on each team is going to provide a tourney winning score. LAC – could be Keenan Allen or Mike Williams. MIN – could be Justin Jefferson (would have to go for 35+ here), Jordan Addison, or TJ Hockenson.

Game Environment: There seem to be some narratives that suggest MIN will run more on first/second down at least when they are beginning drives. I guess they feel they need to establish some continuity. However, they are still going to be passing and the TDs could very easily go to their strongest offensive weapons, pass catchers. LAC is very capable on offense and this new offensive coach is 2-2 in constructing game specific plans. I have confidence in their scheme and skill players. Don’t both teams play up-tempo? Their QBs are gunslingers who will ramp up the volume if the game stay close. Kind of a classic shootout type atmosphere.

My Plays: Herbert + M Williams + Jefferson is my gut instinct. The stack costs 22.8k so you need 90 points to stay on track for 200, which is possible, but you lose a lot of the flexibility by spending so much. Switch Jefferson for Addison and you spend 19k (need 75) but this construction is far less likely to go for 5x. Switch in Hockenson and you need to score 80 points, but at least you fill the TE position. That’s what I am considering. There are so many other good spots this week, I don’t think an over stack of this game is a good use of funds. Kirk Cousins offers a savings of $600 and might be the better play. If I go with Cousins I would definitely consider adding Josh Kelley to any stack.

Avoiding biases/Challenging preconceived notions: My bias in a game like this is that you have to fully stack the game (4/5/6 players) for it to be useful. It is very possible that 1 player form each team scores 2 TDs and the high priced guys don’t quite reach their ceiling. A skinny stack in this case of Mike Williams/TJ Hockenson could very easily be the only pieces capable of tourney winning scores. You may even play a 3 player block of Williams, Hock, and Kelley.

At OWS, we look for the GAME ENVIRONMENTS that produce tourney winning scores. In addition, we need to know who the TOP PLAYS are (despite ownership) and not be afraid to play them! We look for ANGLES that allow us to fit the best plays into a lineup that is different. Finally, we need to be aware of biases that cause us to create misconceptions about the game/slate/players. That’s what I look for in this space.

Initial Thoughts: Before I read the NFL Edge I find time to do my own research and synthesize some of my thoughts about the game.

Tourney Winning Plays: Players who get enough volume and quality volume to post a tourney winning score on their own regardless of the game environment. Most DFS players will be building around these pieces.

Likely Game Environment and stacks within that environment to capitalize on in order to squeeze as many FPs as possible out of good games.

My Plays are the people I will be looking to roster from this game.

Trying to Win another Tourney! (213.64 POINTS!!!) – Scroll down for a better description of how and why I structure my game notes in this manner.

Initial Thoughts: Russ is back to hitting some deep shots downfield, story of his career. It does make the Broncos more viable on offense, but I’m guessing MIA has a game plan to keep that ball in front of them. Considering MIA will be scoring and likely wants to play from in front, Russ should be looking to pass again as well, which will create opportunities for MIA D for sacks and turnovers. If Russ can avoid those, its possible they keep up with MIA, but more likely DEN scoring will just allow MIA to hit their ceilings.

Tourney Winning Plays: Tyreek Hill will have the opportunity to be a tourney winner. Will he live up to the hype? Raheem Mostert looks to have had his ceiling game against NE, but its a tourney winning ceiling and this spot is fine.

Game Environment: If Waddle misses, this game environment takes a hit. If he plays, its going to be fire. Russ has that big play ability that could keep them in the game and MIA has a great offense when healthy. If Waddle misses, the only way this game blows up is through Tyreek Hill – at least that’s good knowledge.

My Plays: I would like to play Tyreke Hill because I like his chances of rising to the occasion if Waddle misses and being a real deal top play if Waddle does play. I like Mostert opposite Hill and I wouldn’t mind playing a piece from Denver, but idk which one, maybe Mims at a low cost still.

Avoiding biases/Challenging preconceived notions: Russ can still cook and Russ is done are two different biases. Which one is correct or maybe neither are?

At OWS, we look for the GAME ENVIRONMENTS that produce tourney winning scores. In addition, we need to know who the TOP PLAYS are (despite ownership) and not be afraid to play them! We look for ANGLES that allow us to fit the best plays into a lineup that is different. Finally, we need to be aware of biases that cause us to create misconceptions about the game/slate/players. That’s what I look for in this space.

Initial Thoughts: Before I read the NFL Edge I find time to do my own research and synthesize some of my thoughts about the game.

Tourney Winning Plays: Players who get enough volume and quality volume to post a tourney winning score on their own regardless of the game environment. Most DFS players will be building around these pieces.

Likely Game Environment and stacks within that environment to capitalize on in order to squeeze as many FPs as possible out of good games.

My Plays are the people I will be looking to roster from this game.

Trying to Win another Tourney! (213.64 POINTS!!!) – Scroll down for a better description of how and why I structure my game notes in this manner.

Initial Thoughts: The Jags D looked pretty legit vs. Mahomes and they shouldn’t have too much trouble with this HOU offense that has Nico Collins and not much else. Trevor Lawrence should be able to limit his pass attempts while maintaining a strong offensive game if their D keeps stepping up. The Jags should also be able to score in multiple ways vs. HOU, but they rarely keep their foot on the gas pedal when leading in the 4th.

Tourney Winning Plays: Travis Etienne should get the kind of volume he saw in week 1 if predicting a positive game script, which I am. He put up 21 FPs and has more ceiling through yards and TDs and bonuses. At 6.9k he is still very capable of a 30 point score. Evan Engram is only 4.8k and if he scores a TD with his typical volume, he should be putting up 20 or 4x at TE.

Game Environment: The Jags D is going to be the key to keeping this game environment from blowing up. The HOU WR combo of Dell/Collins would be the key to breaking down the JAX D. That’s what this game environment is hinging on.

My Plays: Etienne + HOU WR (Collins 5.3k or Dell 3.6k) looks like a nice little stack. Etienne + Collins needs to score 50 points to reach 4x while Etienne/Dell only needs 42. You can simply play Evan Engram and hope he hoards all the JAX scoring.

Avoiding biases/Challenging preconceived notions:

At OWS, we look for the GAME ENVIRONMENTS that produce tourney winning scores. In addition, we need to know who the TOP PLAYS are (despite ownership) and not be afraid to play them! We look for ANGLES that allow us to fit the best plays into a lineup that is different. Finally, we need to be aware of biases that cause us to create misconceptions about the game/slate/players. That’s what I look for in this space.

Initial Thoughts: Before I read the NFL Edge I find time to do my own research and synthesize some of my thoughts about the game.

Tourney Winning Plays: Players who get enough volume and quality volume to post a tourney winning score on their own regardless of the game environment. Most DFS players will be building around these pieces.

Likely Game Environment and stacks within that environment to capitalize on in order to squeeze as many FPs as possible out of good games.

My Plays are the people I will be looking to roster from this game.

Trying to Win another Tourney! (213.64 POINTS!!!) – Scroll down for a better description of how and why I structure my game notes in this manner.

Initial Thoughts: Jordan Love may actually be really good. He was very efficient as a passer and great in the red zone. He gets a tough Saints D (they haven’t faced anyone good yet) in their first home game, and maybe he will get more than 25 attempts against a traditional pass funnel type team. If Love can keep up his efficiency in the red zone early on and score TDs, the Saints will likely let Carr open up the offense a bit with downfield shots. GB is gonna have to figure out how to stuff the run game then, or NO is content to drag this one out and play a low scoring affair.

Tourney Winning Plays: none

Game Environment: It seems that NO is very capable of hitting for downfield passes (when Carr is at QB) but they haven’t had much success yet. Let’s imagine that they do hit Olave (or Shaheed) for some big gains in the first half. If the Saints are scoring early here, GB will let Jordan Love sling the ball more. They aren’t going to get it done with AJ Dillon rushing against a NO defense here. The GB volume has been very spread out, but enter Christian Watson and we have the big play WR who can get it done on low volume. This game needs Watson to be interesting. Otherwise we see NO play Taysom Hill far more than we care to.

My Plays: I would take a stab at Christian Watson in this game. He will almost certainly get his max volume in this spot. He can also be played opposite Chris Olave who will have a similar expected volume and high equity passes and TD possibility. That’s 13k in salary for WRs that can put up 40-60 points and one’s success will positively impact the other.

Avoiding biases/Challenging preconceived notions:

At OWS, we look for the GAME ENVIRONMENTS that produce tourney winning scores. In addition, we need to know who the TOP PLAYS are (despite ownership) and not be afraid to play them! We look for ANGLES that allow us to fit the best plays into a lineup that is different. Finally, we need to be aware of biases that cause us to create misconceptions about the game/slate/players. That’s what I look for in this space.

Initial Thoughts: Before I read the NFL Edge I find time to do my own research and synthesize some of my thoughts about the game.

Tourney Winning Plays: Players who get enough volume and quality volume to post a tourney winning score on their own regardless of the game environment. Most DFS players will be building around these pieces.

Likely Game Environment and stacks within that environment to capitalize on in order to squeeze as many FPs as possible out of good games.

My Plays are the people I will be looking to roster from this game.

Trying to Win another Tourney! (213.64 POINTS!!!) – Scroll down for a better description of how and why I structure my game notes in this manner.

Initial Thoughts: We know the Falcons want to run the ball (they had 45 carries against GB), and DET has a dynamic offense that can move the ball through Jared Goff, especially at home. I think both offenses are capable, but this looks more like a middling game because ATLs over reliance on the run does not allow for a ton of plays to be run. DET is a team that needs to drive the entire field in order to score as well, not a lot of big play candidates in this one. There might be good DFS scores here and multiple TDs for each team, but the volume for any one player to hit a tourney winning score is hard to find.

Tourney Winning Plays: Jahmyr Gibbs is almost certainly a slate winner if Monty misses. He has only had 7 carries in each game but 7/9 receptions last week. What RBs get that kind of work in the pass game at 6.6k? We could easily see 100 all purpose yards, 7 receptions, and a TD (23 FPs) as a floor if Monty is out.

Game Environment: Both teams can have success moving the ball and scoring and we could still be looking long and hard for a decent DFS score outside of Gibbs. If ATL rushes 40+ times, there just isn’t much passing volume to matter and DET is not going to start attacking downfield all of a sudden against a ball control team, DET is going to attempt to control the time of possession as well. When JM talked about the Chiefs/49ers mindset of trying to find a home run on every play, I got excited, but this spot looks like the total opposite.

My Plays: Even considering the game environment, the RBs are quite interesting. Bijan Robinson is getting really great volume and even at his price, he could hit for a 100/1 6/50 kind of game (30 FPs) and Jahmyr Gibbs has a similar ceiling at a 1.5k cheaper price.

Avoiding biases/Challenging preconceived notions:

At OWS, we look for the GAME ENVIRONMENTS that produce tourney winning scores. In addition, we need to know who the TOP PLAYS are (despite ownership) and not be afraid to play them! We look for ANGLES that allow us to fit the best plays into a lineup that is different. Finally, we need to be aware of biases that cause us to create misconceptions about the game/slate/players. That’s what I look for in this space.

Initial Thoughts: Before I read the NFL Edge I find time to do my own research and synthesize some of my thoughts about the game.

Tourney Winning Plays: Players who get enough volume and quality volume to post a tourney winning score on their own regardless of the game environment. Most DFS players will be building around these pieces.

Likely Game Environment and stacks within that environment to capitalize on in order to squeeze as many FPs as possible out of good games.

My Plays are the people I will be looking to roster from this game.

Trying to Win another Tourney! (213.64 POINTS!!!) – Scroll down for a better description of how and why I structure my game notes in this manner.

Initial Thoughts: The Titans are going to remain a team who is tough to run against, and are more of a pass funnel. This may work out as Deshaun Watson has not been too successful through the air and it could be a disaster for CLE if Watson has no run game to work off of. TEN is content to ride Henry and the opportunistic Tannehill. The plays in this game are cheap so I am wary of a game environment where one of these teams gets out to a big lead and opens up the opportunities for the other to play more aggressive.

Tourney Winning Plays: none

Game Environment: I am betting that CLE will be forced to pass more than they normally would, opening up volume for some of their pass catcher, but Watson has not been an effective passer and this is still a good defense. CLE has a great defense and TEN will likely not challenge it. There are few paths towards any real goodness in this game.

My Plays: Amari Cooper, David Njoku, Elijah Moore are all guys who should see more volume than on a typical week. They are missing their #1 RB and this is a pass funnel defense.

Avoiding biases/Challenging preconceived notions:

At OWS, we look for the GAME ENVIRONMENTS that produce tourney winning scores. In addition, we need to know who the TOP PLAYS are (despite ownership) and not be afraid to play them! We look for ANGLES that allow us to fit the best plays into a lineup that is different. Finally, we need to be aware of biases that cause us to create misconceptions about the game/slate/players. That’s what I look for in this space.

Initial Thoughts: Before I read the NFL Edge I find time to do my own research and synthesize some of my thoughts about the game.

Tourney Winning Plays: Players who get enough volume and quality volume to post a tourney winning score on their own regardless of the game environment. Most DFS players will be building around these pieces.

Likely Game Environment and stacks within that environment to capitalize on in order to squeeze as many FPs as possible out of good games.

My Plays are the people I will be looking to roster from this game.

Trying to Win another Tourney! (213.64 POINTS!!!) – Scroll down for a better description of how and why I structure my game notes in this manner.

Initial Thoughts: BAL is still a rushing offense it looks like. They lost their RB1 and rattled off 37 rushing carries in a close game. Even against a Colts D that is stronger against the rush, BAL should be pretty balanced. Lamar has been very efficient in the passing game as a result so we can expect some scoring for them, possibly a lot. IND will likely start Minshew. I guess that is a net neutral for their offense (idk) but at least he is more capable in the pass game (he even has some scrambling ability, right?) and could help IND keep it close. This game has potential if you really squint, but I don’t really see BAL coming out of their shell and its likely the volume is too spread out on BAL to lead to tourney winning scores here.

Tourney Winning Plays: Lamar Jackson has been very efficient. If he is called on for more runs around the goal line, we could see him score 2 rushing TDs and approach 300 yards passing as well. 300/2 with 30/2 (38 FPs) on the ground is very reasonable considering the RBs out.

Game Environment: IND is going to have a hard time moving the ball against a BAL D playing at home with a strong rush D. Add in the probability that BAL will be able to move the ball and you have a setup where BAL is quickly building a lead. How does IND respond? Even if IND has a tilt to the air, Pittman is already playing at a 10+ target level and showing why his ceiling in DFS is limited. BAL is constantly spreading out volume and TDs, making it hard to find a pairing partner for Lamar that you can count on for a tourney winning score. It possible we see more of a shootout, and it would be the QBs who really spark that kind of a game.

My Plays: I might play some Lamar naked as his upside is closer to being realized without the bevy of goal line backs. It would make sense to pair him with a pass catcher, and Nelson Agholor is looking like someone who could benefit from weak perimeter defense. Pittman would be the natural bring back, but his likelihood of surpassing 4x is low (he would need 2 TDs).

Avoiding biases/Challenging preconceived notions:

At OWS, we look for the GAME ENVIRONMENTS that produce tourney winning scores. In addition, we need to know who the TOP PLAYS are (despite ownership) and not be afraid to play them! We look for ANGLES that allow us to fit the best plays into a lineup that is different. Finally, we need to be aware of biases that cause us to create misconceptions about the game/slate/players. That’s what I look for in this space.

Initial Thoughts: Before I read the NFL Edge I find time to do my own research and synthesize some of my thoughts about the game.

Tourney Winning Plays: Players who get enough volume and quality volume to post a tourney winning score on their own regardless of the game environment. Most DFS players will be building around these pieces.

Likely Game Environment and stacks within that environment to capitalize on in order to squeeze as many FPs as possible out of good games.

My Plays are the people I will be looking to roster from this game.

Trying to Win another Tourney! (213.64 POINTS!!!) – Scroll down for a better description of how and why I structure my game notes in this manner.

Initial Thoughts: As I stated here last week, teams do not go into Denver in the first 2 weeks of a NFL season and have good games. This will be a low scoring game again that the DEN D is just set up to win. You could play DEN D.

Tourney Winning Plays:

Game Environment:

My Plays:

Avoiding biases/Challenging preconceived notions:

At OWS, we look for the GAME ENVIRONMENTS that produce tourney winning scores. In addition, we need to know who the TOP PLAYS are (despite ownership) and not be afraid to play them! We look for ANGLES that allow us to fit the best plays into a lineup that is different. Finally, we need to be aware of biases that cause us to create misconceptions about the game/slate/players. That’s what I look for in this space.

Initial Thoughts: Before I read the NFL Edge I find time to do my own research and synthesize some of my thoughts about the game.

Tourney Winning Plays: Players who get enough volume and quality volume to post a tourney winning score on their own regardless of the game environment. Most DFS players will be building around these pieces.

Likely Game Environment and stacks within that environment to capitalize on in order to squeeze as many FPs as possible out of good games.

My Plays are the people I will be looking to roster from this game.

Trying to Win another Tourney! (213.64 POINTS!!!) – Scroll down for a better description of how and why I structure my game notes in this manner.

Initial Thoughts: Ultimate defensive battle that will coax both teams to stick to the run where both teams have some good RBs even though that will be tough sledding as well. If anything besides Cowboys D from this game is going to pop it will be B Hall (he wont see enough touches though) or T Pollard. I can’t imagine DAL wanting to pass into that Jets D if they don’t have to.

Tourney Winning Plays:

Game Environment:

My Plays:

Avoiding biases/Challenging preconceived notions:

At OWS, we look for the GAME ENVIRONMENTS that produce tourney winning scores. In addition, we need to know who the TOP PLAYS are (despite ownership) and not be afraid to play them! We look for ANGLES that allow us to fit the best plays into a lineup that is different. Finally, we need to be aware of biases that cause us to create misconceptions about the game/slate/players. That’s what I look for in this space.

Initial Thoughts: Before I read the NFL Edge I find time to do my own research and synthesize some of my thoughts about the game.

Tourney Winning Plays: Players who get enough volume and quality volume to post a tourney winning score on their own regardless of the game environment. Most DFS players will be building around these pieces.

Likely Game Environment and stacks within that environment to capitalize on in order to squeeze as many FPs as possible out of good games.

My Plays are the people I will be looking to roster from this game.

Trying to Win another Tourney! (213.64 POINTS!!!) – Scroll down for a better description of how and why I structure my game notes in this manner.

Initial Thoughts: The 49ers are the cream of the crop for the NFC West and the Rams just surprised the Seahawks with a couple great rookie WRs. The 49ers can score on or with any team so I have no concerns there. We also know the 3-4 players who benefit from a good 49ers game. The Rams should be set up to pass again and if one week (and OWS) mean anything, Nacua is set up for a big role in this offense. The Rams scored on the ground, which is interesting because the Hawks are usually good in the red zone on the ground. LAR must be committed to scoring via the run game which devalues their WRs. Playing a couple 49ers with a Nacua bring back seems sharp.

Tourney Winning Plays: Deebo Samuel, Aiyuk, Kittle, McCaffrey (kinda like the Bills, there are too many positives for all members of this pack)

Game Environment: SF will put up points through their efficient offense and LAR will try to keep up by passing. I don’t think LA will have success throughout and SF may hold onto the ball a lot. Everything sets up well for SF and the questions remains if you want to take an Atwell or Nacua as a bring back or skinny stack.

My Plays: Kittle + Nacua or Atwell, Deebo + Nacua or Atwell, and so on and so forth with Aiyuk and McCaffrey.

Avoiding biases/Challenging preconceived notions:

At OWS, we look for the GAME ENVIRONMENTS that produce tourney winning scores. In addition, we need to know who the TOP PLAYS are (despite ownership) and not be afraid to play them! We look for ANGLES that allow us to fit the best plays into a lineup that is different. Finally, we need to be aware of biases that cause us to create misconceptions about the game/slate/players. That’s what I look for in this space.

Initial Thoughts: Before I read the NFL Edge I find time to do my own research and synthesize some of my thoughts about the game.

Tourney Winning Plays: Players who get enough volume and quality volume to post a tourney winning score on their own regardless of the game environment. Most DFS players will be building around these pieces.

Likely Game Environment and stacks within that environment to capitalize on in order to squeeze as many FPs as possible out of good games.

My Plays are the people I will be looking to roster from this game.

Trying to Win another Tourney! (213.64 POINTS!!!) – Scroll down for a better description of how and why I structure my game notes in this manner.

Initial Thoughts: ARI D is gonna show up again. It is really hard to find some interest in this game, but Saquon gets rare volume, right? Waller is a TE that can rack up points. Nothing stands out here yet.

Tourney Winning Plays: yeah…none

Game Environment: ARI will be rare to get in the red zone and NYG have advantages on defense. Expect NYG to avoid giving up good field position (meaning they will punt the ball away rather than be aggressive on 4th down) and trust Saquon and short passes and legs of D Jones.

My Plays: probably nothing from this game.

Avoiding biases/Challenging preconceived notions:

At OWS, we look for the GAME ENVIRONMENTS that produce tourney winning scores. In addition, we need to know who the TOP PLAYS are (despite ownership) and not be afraid to play them! We look for ANGLES that allow us to fit the best plays into a lineup that is different. Finally, we need to be aware of biases that cause us to create misconceptions about the game/slate/players. That’s what I look for in this space.

Initial Thoughts: Before I read the NFL Edge I find time to do my own research and synthesize some of my thoughts about the game.

Tourney Winning Plays: Players who get enough volume and quality volume to post a tourney winning score on their own regardless of the game environment. Most DFS players will be building around these pieces.

Likely Game Environment and stacks within that environment to capitalize on in order to squeeze as many FPs as possible out of good games.

My Plays are the people I will be looking to roster from this game.

Trying to Win another Tourney! (213.64 POINTS!!!) – Scroll down for a better description of how and why I structure my game notes in this manner.

Initial Thoughts: Josh Allen is not a good deep ball passer. He can chuck the ball, but he is better marching down the field. Will he do that and make Allen/Diggs solid stacking partners or will he keep chucking and turning the ball over? This is an attractive game because Adams/Meyers/Jacobs are the main volume recipients in an offense that should be passing a bunch. The Bills should be able to move the ball and more importantly, score TDs vs LV. Good spot for DFS.

Tourney Winning Plays: Josh Allen, Stefon Diggs, Dawson Knox, Dalton Kincaid all get high usage in an offense that should score points and should have their foot on the gas all game (it also helps that the defense they are facing is not elite and likely very far from elite).

Game Environment: Bills should be executing on offense and winning via the pass and LV should be trying to keep up.

My Plays: I am going to play some Allen + Diggs + Kincaid, Allen + Diggs + G Davis, Allen + Kincaid, Allen + G Davis + Knox, basically any combo that makes sense. We are almost certain that BUF will score points in this spot and we know where the volume will flow.

Avoiding biases/Challenging preconceived notions:

At OWS, we look for the GAME ENVIRONMENTS that produce tourney winning scores. In addition, we need to know who the TOP PLAYS are (despite ownership) and not be afraid to play them! We look for ANGLES that allow us to fit the best plays into a lineup that is different. Finally, we need to be aware of biases that cause us to create misconceptions about the game/slate/players. That’s what I look for in this space.

Initial Thoughts: Before I read the NFL Edge I find time to do my own research and synthesize some of my thoughts about the game.

Tourney Winning Plays: Players who get enough volume and quality volume to post a tourney winning score on their own regardless of the game environment. Most DFS players will be building around these pieces.

Likely Game Environment and stacks within that environment to capitalize on in order to squeeze as many FPs as possible out of good games.

My Plays are the people I will be looking to roster from this game.

Trying to Win another Tourney! (213.64 POINTS!!!) – Scroll down for a better description of how and why I structure my game notes in this manner.

Initial Thoughts: LA has a pretty decent offense (the 35 rushes/33 passes was a bit weird) and we should expect them to score. TEN has enough weapons (Henry/Hopkins) to push the pace and possibly the scoreboard. I imagine the amount that these teams run will lead to a quicker clock, but I do think this is a space to look for offense, especially because you know where the volume will flow.

Tourney Winning Plays: Austin Ekeler is always in consideration in games that project to have high totals. He is either scoring TDs, ripping off big runs, or fielding a high number of targets (even up to 10 catches is not unreasonable) so his upside as an RB is somewhat unmatched. Derrick Henry is still the top back, he does have a few receptions each week, and the Chargers were known as a team you can rush against last year.

Game Environment: Both teams can score is the angle I am playing. The Titans often scheme their defense for a particular offense, but LAC has a good rushing game and good QB and good WRs so its hard to plan for everything they can do. My guess is they try to stop the run (as stated by others) and keep the passes short so they can find their chances to make big plays on D as LAC tries to drive the field. LAC should have some incentive to try to make the big plays in spite of TEN trying to take them away. TEN will have the mindset of trying to respond to what LAC is doing. If LAC is successful and takes a lead, TEN will have to pass and take some shots downfield to Burks. If LAC is not successful, TEN can keep to their run/short pass game.

My Plays: I don’t really want to play Herbert + K Allen or M Williams with a T Burks bring back, but that is the best play from this game. Herbert to Mike Williams provides paths to upside scores and Burks is the player TEN needs to keep up with a high scoring LAC. If avoiding the passing attacks, I could see a roster that includes D Henry. I’m not quite sure how an Ekeler play works here. I want to play him for his reception upside, but what game environment does that follow?

Avoiding biases/Challenging preconceived notions:

At OWS, we look for the GAME ENVIRONMENTS that produce tourney winning scores. In addition, we need to know who the TOP PLAYS are (despite ownership) and not be afraid to play them! We look for ANGLES that allow us to fit the best plays into a lineup that is different. Finally, we need to be aware of biases that cause us to create misconceptions about the game/slate/players. That’s what I look for in this space.

Initial Thoughts: Before I read the NFL Edge I find time to do my own research and synthesize some of my thoughts about the game.

Tourney Winning Plays: Players who get enough volume and quality volume to post a tourney winning score on their own regardless of the game environment. Most DFS players will be building around these pieces.

Likely Game Environment and stacks within that environment to capitalize on in order to squeeze as many FPs as possible out of good games.

My Plays are the people I will be looking to roster from this game.

Trying to Win another Tourney! (213.64 POINTS!!!) – Scroll down for a better description of how and why I structure my game notes in this manner.

Initial Thoughts: What looks like a slow game lacking in big play makers is likely just that. Mayfield-Evans and Fields-Moore are good connections but I don’t think they get the volume to matter in this game. While both teams should not commit to the run, the game environment and close nature of the matchup will allow both teams to play their preferred slow style.

Tourney Winning Plays: Fields…maybe…if you squint and remember last year.

Game Environment: Each team would like to be fairly evenly split (run/pass) in a close matchup. The Bucs used the run game to “wear down” the MIN D and took some 10-20 yards shots to Mike Evans which seemed to work well and get them into the red zone. The Bears have a bad passer who can run a bit and maybe break some long ones if he gets lucky. Expect either a low scoring slog it out game or a game in which the Bucs have success and Fields eventually has to go into catch up mode (against a good run D) in the second half.

My Plays: likely nothing from this game. Rashaad White has good usage for his price, but the TB run program has been broken for a while now.

Avoiding biases/Challenging preconceived notions: That TB will run the ball when throwing is so much easier. MIN showed that their pass D is somewhat legit vs. PHI, but Mayfield-Evans found some success against them. Maybe Mayfield-Evans is much more successful this week through the air and they abandon the run.

At OWS, we look for the GAME ENVIRONMENTS that produce tourney winning scores. In addition, we need to know who the TOP PLAYS are (despite ownership) and not be afraid to play them! We look for ANGLES that allow us to fit the best plays into a lineup that is different. Finally, we need to be aware of biases that cause us to create misconceptions about the game/slate/players. That’s what I look for in this space.

Initial Thoughts: Before I read the NFL Edge I find time to do my own research and synthesize some of my thoughts about the game.

Tourney Winning Plays: Players who get enough volume and quality volume to post a tourney winning score on their own regardless of the game environment. Most DFS players will be building around these pieces.

Likely Game Environment and stacks within that environment to capitalize on in order to squeeze as many FPs as possible out of good games.

My Plays are the people I will be looking to roster from this game.

Trying to Win another Tourney! (213.64 POINTS!!!) – Scroll down for a better description of how and why I structure my game notes in this manner.

Initial Thoughts: If the Chiefs can keep up in this game (!!) the Jaguars should be poised to put up the most TDs on the slate. You have to love Lawrence and Ridley and Zay Jones in this game and maybe even Evan Engram in game stacks as a second pass catcher. I could leave KC and their prices on Kelce and Mahomes alone. Choosing a WR on KC is a futile effort.

Tourney Winning Plays: Mahomes, Kelce, Ridley, Etienne, Zay Jones are all in play for me on any roster.

Game Environment: I expect offenses that are passing the ball at a high clip, gaining yards and scoring TDs. Everyone else does too so how many TDs do they score and who gets them.

My Plays: I like Trevor Lawrence. Remember, he can still gain yards on the ground and score from inside the 5. If he throws for 250 yards/3 TDs, that’s 24 points at 6.7k. He’s gonna need either a shootout or a running TD. So you pair Lawrence with 2 pass catcher and a Kelce bring back. Mahomes scored 40% more FPs last season (total) than Lawrence, but in a back and forth affair, Lawrence can match Mahomes so I probably will lean Lawrence OVER Mahomes here expecting similar production in a shootout. Ridley/Jones are the preferred 2 pass catchers. I will consider Toney because of the designed plays for him especially in the red zone.

Avoiding biases/Challenging preconceived notions: We all think this is going to be a good real life game, but how good will it be for fantasy? These are expensive player blocks and they will be high owned.

At OWS, we look for the GAME ENVIRONMENTS that produce tourney winning scores. In addition, we need to know who the TOP PLAYS are (despite ownership) and not be afraid to play them! We look for ANGLES that allow us to fit the best plays into a lineup that is different. Finally, we need to be aware of biases that cause us to create misconceptions about the game/slate/players. That’s what I look for in this space.

Initial Thoughts: Before I read the NFL Edge I find time to do my own research and synthesize some of my thoughts about the game.

Tourney Winning Plays: Players who get enough volume and quality volume to post a tourney winning score on their own regardless of the game environment. Most DFS players will be building around these pieces.

Likely Game Environment and stacks within that environment to capitalize on in order to squeeze as many FPs as possible out of good games.

My Plays are the people I will be looking to roster from this game.

Trying to Win another Tourney! (213.64 POINTS!!!) – Scroll down for a better description of how and why I structure my game notes in this manner.

Initial Thoughts: none

Tourney Winning Plays: Dameon Pierce was a lead back all last year and in a game they might be able to control, he is the most attractive piece.

Game Environment: Both teams are going to have hiccups through the air. IND is all Richardson and his elite talent, and the HOU D is pretty good. I do not expect IND to score a bunch nor score fast. HOU would like to lean on the run game and stay in the game in order to win it in the 4th. With non-elite pieces this game is not too interesting.

My Plays: Maybe Dameon Pierce because he has good floor/upside for a RB.

Avoiding biases/Challenging preconceived notions:

At OWS, we look for the GAME ENVIRONMENTS that produce tourney winning scores. In addition, we need to know who the TOP PLAYS are (despite ownership) and not be afraid to play them! We look for ANGLES that allow us to fit the best plays into a lineup that is different. Finally, we need to be aware of biases that cause us to create misconceptions about the game/slate/players. That’s what I look for in this space.

Initial Thoughts: Before I read the NFL Edge I find time to do my own research and synthesize some of my thoughts about the game.

Tourney Winning Plays: Players who get enough volume and quality volume to post a tourney winning score on their own regardless of the game environment. Most DFS players will be building around these pieces.

Likely Game Environment and stacks within that environment to capitalize on in order to squeeze as many FPs as possible out of good games.

My Plays are the people I will be looking to roster from this game.

Trying to Win another Tourney! (213.64 POINTS!!!) – Scroll down for a better description of how and why I structure my game notes in this manner.

Initial Thoughts: DET is Gonna be a popular offense to play this year and especially against the SEA pass D that just got torched by LAR. One thing to notice was how LAR scored 3 TDs on the ground AT SEA. I think DET might have a similar hope to score on the ground.

Tourney Winning Plays: Amon Ra St Brown is going to get volume and red zone looks, but he is also a better play opposite a SEA piece.

Game Environment: We are playing in a dome and DET has a great offensive line. They should have time to pass and should have success in the run game. The DET D is also pretty good. SEA is built as an offense that drives the length of the field and hopes to break a big play along the way. A couple big plays from Metcalf/Lockett/Njigba would unlock this game. A couple early TDs from DET would also unlock it. These TDs likely come from St. Brown leading the drive down the field, a Gibbs breakaway (very possible) or a Montgomery dive from the 2. It would be a surprise if these teams were back and forth all game. What worries me most is the DET D.

My Plays: I like playing G Smith with two pass catchers before I turn to Goff because I think DET will be able to score on the ground. Amon Ra is an obvious bring back but I also like throwing in a Monty or a Gibbs as well, making a 5 stack my likely path to playing this game.

Avoiding biases/Challenging preconceived notions: Jared Goff has superpowers at home in a dome (that really is the bias here)

At OWS, we look for the GAME ENVIRONMENTS that produce tourney winning scores. In addition, we need to know who the TOP PLAYS are (despite ownership) and not be afraid to play them! We look for ANGLES that allow us to fit the best plays into a lineup that is different. Finally, we need to be aware of biases that cause us to create misconceptions about the game/slate/players. That’s what I look for in this space.

Initial Thoughts: Before I read the NFL Edge I find time to do my own research and synthesize some of my thoughts about the game.

Tourney Winning Plays: Players who get enough volume and quality volume to post a tourney winning score on their own regardless of the game environment. Most DFS players will be building around these pieces.

Likely Game Environment and stacks within that environment to capitalize on in order to squeeze as many FPs as possible out of good games.

My Plays are the people I will be looking to roster from this game.

Trying to Win another Tourney! (213.64 POINTS!!!) – Scroll down for a better description of how and why I structure my game notes in this manner.

Initial Thoughts: The supposed “best” offenses of the AFC both bombed in Week 1. The Ravens didn’t really need to do much offensively but the narrative is that they wanted to pass more and Lamar had 22 attempts. If the Bengals can’t figure out their offense/BAL D, we can expect a run heavy approach from BAL. CIN needs to be the aggressor here against a tough D. If you want to go here, play Chase who can beat any D and some BAL bring backs.

Tourney Winning Plays: none

Game Environment: The Bengals are going to start off passing the ball which is a positive factor when looking to this game. Their success with this plan will dictate how the game plays out so CIN passing game pieces are the start of any game stack here. If they succeed we will probably see more Lamar/Flowers/Andrews to the extent that they might be valuable pieces as well. As JM mentioned, these two teams have 40 point games in their range of outcomes as well as low scoring slogs.

My Plays: Very unsure about this game, but it is obvious that a game stack will be a boom or bust option. I could play a Burrow double with Higgins/Boyd and some Flowers and/or Andrews as a bring back.

Avoiding biases/Challenging preconceived notions:

At OWS, we look for the GAME ENVIRONMENTS that produce tourney winning scores. In addition, we need to know who the TOP PLAYS are (despite ownership) and not be afraid to play them! We look for ANGLES that allow us to fit the best plays into a lineup that is different. Finally, we need to be aware of biases that cause us to create misconceptions about the game/slate/players. That’s what I look for in this space.

Initial Thoughts: Before I read the NFL Edge I find time to do my own research and synthesize some of my thoughts about the game.

Tourney Winning Plays: Players who get enough volume and quality volume to post a tourney winning score on their own regardless of the game environment. Most DFS players will be building around these pieces.

Likely Game Environment and stacks within that environment to capitalize on in order to squeeze as many FPs as possible out of good games.

My Plays are the people I will be looking to roster from this game.

Trying to Win another Tourney! (213.64 POINTS!!!) – Scroll down for a better description of how and why I structure my game notes in this manner.

Initial Thoughts: I just peeked at the total and that says a lot. ATL was super into running the ball and so are the Packers. We may not see the least amount of plays on the weekend, but there is also a chance for that. Both backfields are split. There are better spots.

Tourney Winning Plays: none

Game Environment: It is difficult to make the case for an interesting DFS game environment. GB can lean a little bit pass heavy, but without the big playmakers (Watson/Jones) these passes are not that explosive and it is unlikely the Packers force ATL out of its run game shell.

My Plays: I might play Musgrave in a week where he should be less coveted but probably does represent the best explosive threat for GB, a team with at least some interest in passing.

Avoiding biases/Challenging preconceived notions: The clear bias is that ATL does not throw the ball. This started last year and continued into their first game. We are also expecting GB to struggle to score points which would push ATL (at some point) to the air. Still, this game is a long way from shootout.

At OWS, we look for the GAME ENVIRONMENTS that produce tourney winning scores. In addition, we need to know who the TOP PLAYS are (despite ownership) and not be afraid to play them! We look for ANGLES that allow us to fit the best plays into a lineup that is different. Finally, we need to be aware of biases that cause us to create misconceptions about the game/slate/players. That’s what I look for in this space.

Initial Thoughts: Before I read the NFL Edge I find time to do my own research and synthesize some of my thoughts about the game.

Tourney Winning Plays: Players who get enough volume and quality volume to post a tourney winning score on their own regardless of the game environment. Most DFS players will be building around these pieces.

Likely Game Environment and stacks within that environment to capitalize on in order to squeeze as many FPs as possible out of good games.

My Plays are the people I will be looking to roster from this game.

Initial Thoughts: it’s better to think specifically of the showdown contest as we break this game down. You have 2 accomplished QBs, but Allen should be far and away the preferred option over Rogers. Rogers should still be able to lead his team to score points and we can expect more TDs to be scored through the air for NYJ with Rogers (that’s why you brought him in right?)

I imagine the BUF defense is still gonna be quite good but the Jets always seem to have the Bills number so I expect the Jets D to perform well also. So a low scoring game that is close throughout and possibly won by a field goal.

Plays to consider regardless of game environment: Josh Allen, Stefon Diggs, Garrett Wilson, Aaron Rodgers.

Game Environment: It seems we should be expecting a defensive affair. Both defenses should have enough strength and ability to make the other offense strong plays together and drive the length of the field. I wouldn’t be surprised if both defenses were more able to control their red zone D more so than their open field D, making FGs more prevalent in this game than TDs. I expect that yardage will be accumulated by both teams as these QBs are just too good to fail, but they must find ways to score. So who benefits from middle of the field looks and accumulation of stats? It’s the guys who collect the most receptions and can add some YAC (not expecting too many big plays). If there are 2-3 TDs per team, it would be nice to hit on those, and the easiest way is playing the QBs.

My Plays: The QBs are gonna be high owned and possibly both necessary even if they don’t post good price considered scores, similar to KC-DET. The big playmakers are gonna put up good scores – Diggs, Wilson (and if the yards and catches are not going to them then it will be spread out to others on the team). I like rostering one kicker on my lineups for this game. I like rostering the big red zone weapons like Knox on Buffalo. Conklin or Cobb or Lazard seem like good red zone targets for Rogers, but I also am just guessing without any prior knowledge. I would like to roster the defenses as well where it works salary wise.

Biases/Preconceptions: There are big biases here with our evaluation of the QBs. What if one is totally rusty/dusty? What was affecting Josh Allen down the stretch last year with his shoulder (is that still a problem)?

Initial Thoughts: Two teams trending in opposite directions and everyone knows it. The Seahawks are very well balanced on offense and can seemingly compete with other high octane groups, especially with the addition of another capable WR. Geno/Metcalf/Lockett are too expensive for this game environment knowing LAR cannot keep up or push the pace/scoring.

Tourney Winning Plays: none

Game Environment: There are a lot of question marks for LAR concerning who they will target if they are not successful in the run game. A lack of consistency is gonna lead to some stalled drives and SEA will dominate time of possession. When SEA holds the ball they are not necessarily concerned about scoring fast. More often than not, they plod down the field unless Metcalf or Lockett or Walker can unleash a big play.

My Plays: I am only looking to big plays in this game. At 6k, K. Walker is the most likely to break a big run that leads to him producing a had to have it score. On the Rams, Nacua (and Atwell) are interesting at 3k. I think they still need big plays to matter.

Biases and Preconceptions: My biases about the Hawks are that they will underwhelm as an offense because Pete Carrol holds them back a bit from their ceiling. They need to be pushed to have a good offensive game that matches their prices. (I think I am standing by this bias)

Trying to Win a Tourney!

Initial Thoughts: Wide range of outcomes in this game, with the most likely result being the Super Bowl Eagles find ways to put up points and NE has trouble keeping up. Eagles eventually pull away. Belichick has been known for his defensive planning and he could stop Jalen Hurts in this one. The Eagles could also pile up the points early and force NE to the air. You could probably win a tourney with that last result.

Tourney Winning Plays: Jalen Hurts has to be in the discussion given what he can do. I am also interested in Mike Gesicki given what he has done previously and considering the lack of WR options and the talent of the Eagles D.

Game Environment: This game does have that potential for a high score. Both offenses have weapons, PHI obviously more so than NE, but always be wary of the NE coach. This is a “nothing to lose” game at home against a potential super bowl contender. NE knows they will have to score points to win, and potentially needs to take some risks on defense. Maybe those risks on D lead to some turnovers by PHI which would upend the shootout, but maybe PHI excels and just runs up the score forcing NE to give Mac Jones 50 passes.

My Plays: If Mac Jones is throwing 50 times he probably gets 300 yards and a couple TDs = 23-25 points so he is an option. On the other side the WRs/TEs will be putting up big games so any of AJ Brown, D Smith or Goedert would be a solid bring back.

Biases/Preconceptions:
There is a lot of bias and ideas about these coaches that goes into thinking this game could shootout and I’m not sure anyone will be playing that angle.

Trying to Win a Tourney!

Initial Thoughts: Atlanta was a top rushing offense last year with Pitts and London as capable receivers. They should have a lot of success and be in a lot of games, but the pace of play will be slower or average at best.
Carolina is the new shiny toy in a lot of ways. I think they will struggle in week 1, playing right into the Atlanta system – good rushing O, good D.

Tourney Winning Plays: none

Game Environment: Neither QB is going to be called on to do much of anything as long as this game remains close. The real chance for separation would be due to the success of the ATL rushing game, which is shared and likely eaten into by Patterson as well. CAR could find success through Miles Sanders who is the most likely player on the team to score too.

My Plays: If I play Bijan Robinson for the ceiling, I might bring it back with Miles Sanders. I might even play Sanders as he is the best option on their team early on.

Trying to Win a Tourney!

Initial Thoughts: Miami is a fun team to stack and the Chargers are not going to stop them. LA also has some pieces to keep up. This could be another fun game to target.

Tourney Winning Plays: all of Ekeler, Mostert, Waddle or Hill could be played as one-offs expecting a tourney winning score. It will probably be more interesting to mix/match as a stack or player block.

Game Environment: This is an obvious spot for high scoring. Miami is aggressive and will play that way if the other team can put up points. The Miami D shouldn’t be able to stop LAC so a high scoring, back and forth affair with big passing plays seems likelier than any other spot this week.

My Plays: I like Mostert alone or in stacks. He may not hit a ceiling score but he likely gets a good and usable score around 4x. I like Hill or Waddle. I like Ekeler. The other pieces could be mixed in as a game stack or overstack.

Trying to Win a Tourney!

Initial Thoughts: Denver always wins these early games with defense. Enough said.

Tourney Winning Plays: none

Game Environment: It’s unlikely this game has a high total. Denver is bad and missing a top WR and RB. Las Vegas is going to be playing at altitude which will likely affect them. However, JM is saying Russ could push the deep passes which would go to Sutton and/or Mims. Do I want to be invested in that?

My Plays: I am almost certainly staying away from this game. I do not play enough lineups to take a risk on Las Vegas at Denver in Week 1 nor Russ and the weakened Denver offense.

Trying to Win a Tourney!

Initial Thoughts: Oh this could be fun. It should be a great chance for the Bears to get back at Green Bay with no Rodgers. Both offenses are capable and who knows about defense at this point in the season. It might be a good idea to play Love instead of Fields and hope he matches the production on a point per dollar pace. The 2.7k price difference is pretty big.

Tourney Winning Plays: none

Game Environment: Even without Rodgers, GB is expected to play slow and use their RBs a bunch. The Bears like to run and control the ball as well which matches up better with the GB D. We will see how many of those designed runs go to Fields in week 1. This is a game stack or nothing spot for me.

My Plays: If I stack this game I want to be on Fields who can be a slate winner. I would pair Fields with a pass catcher, but it’s hard to figure out which one. A bring back of Musgraves or Jayden Reed is likely. If the Bears are playing from behind it’s less likely the big plays of Watson or a RB and more likely the continued success of the GB offense and/or defense pushing Fields to get aggressive.

Biases/Preconceived Ideas:
We see Justin Fields as the elite QB of the latter half of last season, but it took a concerted effort by Bears to allow Fields more designed runs. Will they resort to that so early in the season? Do they need to?

Trying to Win a Tourney!

Initial Thoughts: New Orleans is a team that will likely need to be pushed in order to really meet their DFS potential, but they have a lot of great possibilities on offense including Olave or even Michael Thomas.
Of course playing opposite NO, will be the run heavy Derrick Henry team. TEN has stacked back up on offense with Hopkins and Burke at WR. They should be able to move the ball, making this game a possible shootout here in Week 1. The Tannehill/Hopkins/Henry stack costs 19.9k and their are great bring-backs like Olave or Thomas or J Williams or TE Taysom Hill.

Tourney Winning Plays: Chris Olave is seen by many as an elite WR who will get lots of targets. This is a great spot for him to shine at a low price tag.

Game Environment: This game is taking place in a dome and the passing offenses should be the preferred method of attack considering success and the opposing defense. However we also have two run heavy teams – I imagine the first half will kind of bleed away until the last part of second quarter – meaning in order for multiple pieces to hit, this game will need to be high scoring – one team will take a lead. Will that be the Saints playing against a misguided Titans offense (not likely) or the Titans landing a few big plays early by way of D Henry (also not super likely)

My Plays: I am leaning to not playing any of these guys due to the game environment I am projecting, however Olave is supposedly real good.

Trying to Win a Tourney!

Initial Thoughts: Everyone wants to play Justin Jefferson so KJ Osbourne looks like a good leverage play without reading anything.

This game has a wide range of outcomes. There are many great receivers and MIN was a high scoring team last year. Mayfield is a proven QB and, although he hasn’t been good yet, he has 2 great WRs. If it becomes a passing affair, at least you know who to target and Evans/Godwin are pretty cheap for them.

Tourney Winning Plays: Justin Jefferson is going to be high owned and for a reason but really any MIN skill position player (and very likely) one will be on tourney winning rosters given their style of play.

Game Environment: While Minnesota is a good passing offense, they like to mix in the run and will struggle to do that vs Tampa Bay. That may slow down the game a bit. Tampa will surely be slow to work in a new QB although a capable one in Mayfield who is priced cheap.

My Plays: I’ll try to fit in Jefferson but might play Osbourne at a low price instead. Hockenson makes a lot of sense as well.

Biases/Preconceptions:
We assume Evans and Godwin are gonna be good but maybe it was Brady really making those two work – maybe they are average and this offense really struggles. MIN wouldn’t need to pass for long if TB really struggles.

Trying to Win a Tourney!

Initial Thoughts: Indy has a super athletic QB and a O Coord. willing to use him, but its gonna be hard to expect much at the beginning of the year. Jacksonville is legit and if they can stall out the IND offense enough they should be able to pile up the scores and run away with this one. I like the JAX offense but price needs to be considered. Stacking them seems more optimal considering the many weapons on the team and spread out nature that we expect.

Tourney Winning Plays: Jags pass catchers are all going to be successful and especially Ridley.

Game Environment: while Indy has a good run defense and can keep teams in check, Jags are really good this year and will eventually put up points. I imagine IND will have some good drives given the running QB but also some mistakes. Jaguars D may also be a good play. Any scoring pushes the pace of play.

My Plays: I like Calvin Ridley. If I play a couple lineups of Ridley I will also look for a different pass catcher to play on a different lineup – all have good potential here. IND guys will be cheap and low owned. Richardson/Pierce is 9.4K and can go for 40 in a good game. The real plus is this play frees up money for other spots and they likely go for 25 at least. Add in Deon Jackson at 4.1k who likely won’t get too far above ten.

Biases/preconceptions:
That rookie QBs with bad accuracy are just bad is an assumption we are all dealing with. What do athletes do in todays game though?! If Richardson self destructs with turnovers that’s gonna curtail him but if he hangs onto the ball he should put up a good score.

Trying to Win a Tourney!

Initial Thoughts: Cincinnati is the same team it has been, so we can usually expect some success for them with that kind of talent. However, we have the Titans D Coord coming over to CLE and CLE spent big on their defense this offseason. With this being the first week, I wouldn’t be surprised if we saw a lower scoring game. I am guessing most fans will be looking for a back and forth affair between the promising offense of CLE with Watson and the same old same old Bengals offense.

It could either way and I would let ownership dictate where I go.

Tourney Winning Plays: Jamaar Chase against man coverage can be great!

Game Environment: Two divisional opponents that have great offensive pieces looks like a shootout but game 1 of the season is always a ? And these teams have a history of low scoring games.

My Plays: I always like Chase and would otherwise be most likely to stack this game. Burrow + Chase is first. Then the other side- Watson/Cooper/Chase or even Njoku.

Biases/Preconceptions: We all expect CIN to gel right away but they could have first game jitters and allow CLE to run the ball and run the clock.

Trying to Win a Tourney!

Initial Thoughts: This game has a lot of good mojo going for Baltimore. They usually come into the season ready to go and we have seen some big weeks from them early in the year (past 3 seasons at least) with and without the other side joining in. The offense is said to be higher powered with more big play possibility. Everything seems exciting for Lamar and a pass catcher on my lineup.

Houston has some highly questionable pieces on their offense but I suppose they could do something or BAL will just shut them out and rack up yardage and TDs.

Tourney Winning Plays: Lamar Jackson is going to be more of a passer but isn’t he always a threat for rushing upside which is what we want to see in our high priced QB.

Game Environment: This is either a BAL blowout or a nice little tidy win with not many points scored either way. If it’s a blowout, Lamar and a WR could be in play but even that has limited upside if HOU is not keeping up.

My Plays: Zay Flowers is a cheap WR that might be worth a shot. Could be paired with Lamar or just left alone.

Biases/preconceptions:
One preconceived idea of BAL is they play so many RBs. Is that still true this year? Also, is HOU going to be able to run the ball in week 1 vs BAL?

Trying to Win a Tourney!

Initial Thoughts: Arizona as a ball control offense without great players is gonna struggle to score and they have a rushing mindset.
Washington has a lot of good skill players, but the QB is a rookie.
With both offenses being unproven and raw, it’s hard to imagine a shootout here. Arizona seems likely to try to run it, given their personnel and coach. If Washington’s D has receded a bit and AZ finds success, this game will have a low play count. However, the talent is enough that a few big games could be had here, especially if some of these guys get out in space. The likeliest plays here would be the AZ RBs.

Tourney Winning Plays: none

Game Environment: It’s hard to believe that AZ will be able to score or even stop WAS given the Edge writeup. WAS should play slow and ball control.

My Plays: Sam Howell is an unknown quantity, but he is 4.9k and playing against what seems to be the worst team in the league. He is very much in my consideration as a cost saving stack that could have the ball all game.

Avoiding Biases/Challenging Preconceptions:
We assume WAS will not run up the score but maybe they will. Maybe we see 30+ points out of WAS – Howell/Dotson/Gibson is 15k and needs 60 points for 4x – 19/19/22 is really only likely in this scenario where they score 3-4TDs.

Trying to Win a Tourney!!! (I use these notes to build winning lineups, you can too)

Initial Thoughts: PIT did have a great defense last year and they are playing at home. SF has a great defense as well and a pretty dynamic offense that is not likely to be shut down. Because SF is very capable on offense and Pitt is more inclined to play into the strengths of the SF D, I see this game as being pretty one sided, but SF still is facing PIT on the road with Brock Purdy.

Tourney Winning Plays: Deebo Samuel has the skills to pay off and Aiyuk is similarly in play.

Game Environment: SF wants to play their efficient offense early and grab the lead but PIT has a good D (it is hard to start fast on the road in week 1) I can see this being a slow first half with a few big plays by SF and more of the same in the second. Deebo and Aiyuk could excel in either script.

My Plays: Deebo or Aiyuk – nothing else. My reservation is that all skill players hit an above average score but no one goes off.

Trying to win a 2 Game Slate:

Initial Thoughts: What stands out the most from this slate is the lack of WR options that are worth rostering. Davante Adams, Zay Jones, Christian Kirk (maybe Burks) are heads and tails above the rest of the WR options, but we also know they will all be highly owned. I imagine 75% of rosters have Adams plus one of Jones/Kirk. After those 4, we have Juju who has a 20 + point ceiling and then Toney, R. Woods who have 20 point ceilings if you squint and really not much below that.

At the RB position you will have every lineup (>90%) rostering 2 of the following 5: Henry, Jacobs, McKinnon, Etienne, Pacheco. Henry and Jacobs have the highest ceilings. Many will roster 3/5 considering how little assurance we can have with WRs in this game. McKinnon continues to see the receptions and TDs (with Hardman back this red-zone situation is more muddled) carry his scores and Etienne receives the workload, but is in a tough matchup for RBs. Pacheco still does not see enough volume to reach the ceilings of the other backs, but he still provides a decent floor.

It is going to be hard to get a low owned play out of this slate that feels good. It is going to be hard to get a 1st place finish that is not a duplicated lineup because so many people are going to be forced to play the same guys. As always, we have to look for ways to be different, whether that is from a salary perspective and/or from a game environment perspective and telling a different story than others are telling.

Idea #1: Fade Davante Adams (8.8k) and play Mahomes (8.4k). Plenty of people will play these two together, but doing so forces you to take on a lot of extra risk. Mahomes can easily hit for 30-40 in this spot, and if Adams has a bad game (8 games under 20 points and 7 over 30) you are essentially gaining up to 20 points more than rosters with similar constructions and if your opponent paired Adams with Stidham, who will suffer without a big game from Adams, you will gain from that choice as well. Adams gained about 120 of his 150 yards on 3 big pass plays last week. KC allows a lot of passing yardage, but it is mostly underneath and not over the top. If Adams is not hitting its likely that another LV passing piece (Renfrow, Waller, Moreau, Mack) is hitting for a decent score.

Idea #2: Overstack the JAX passing attack. TEN defends the run well and forces offenses to pass. The only offenses that have really succeeded in doing this while scoring more than 20 points are BUF, PHI, and JAX (avg. 37 points). If JAX passing attack scores 4 TDs a Lawrence + 3 pass catchers stack could work. I would play Marvin Jones w/ 2 of Kirk, Zay, Engram. If the KC-LV game finishes with no outstanding price considered scores (Adams goes for < 20 and KC continues to spread the wealth on offense), this stack would be looking pretty good going into the night game.

Trying to Win Week 18!

Initial Thoughts: As soon as Justin Fields got a little nick, they made him a pocket passer and that was no good for his health, nor his abilities. I imagine they are still going to work on him as a pocket passer. I don’t think it was totally the hip injury that kept him from running, I think it was Detroit’s offense and the Bears figuring they should work on stuff. If CHI’s offense is no good, this game will likely disappoint. MIN can easily score, but won’t they be trying to get some rest here. This game has a low probability of going off. CHI will not jump to an early lead (defense and offense are not good) and if MIN grabs a lead, CHI will not be running Fields and hoping to claw back into the game. This game most likely has one sputtering offense (CHI) and one team content to rest players after getting on the same page with Jefferson a week after he was ejected from the game.

Trying to Win Week 18!

Initial Thoughts: The Bills need/want to win. I imagine they will be emotional and that is definitely helpful in terms of production. The Pats are in the hunt for the playoffs and they are likely to run the ball and keep Josh Allen off the field. I’m not sure they are capable of that and so I like Josh Allen and company in this game!

Trying to Win Week 18!

Initial Thoughts: Bucs have clinched and the Falcons are out. TB will not be as pass centric as they have been and ATL is likely working on their offense and defense for next year. Off the top of my head, the only target here is Drake London.

Trying to Win another Tourney! (213.64 POINTS!!!) – Scroll down for a better description of how and why I structure my game notes in this manner.

Initial Thoughts: The two strengths for these offenses are their run games. The two weaknesses for the defenses are in the run game. Neither team is going to abandon the pass, especially if they feel the need to push the pace, but each pass D is tops in the league so the rushing attempts should outweigh the passing for both sides. At elevated prices it is hard to see a game stack here paying off or contributing to a 200+ point score. If Hurts does not play, Gardner Minshew is only 4.8k and Sanders is 6.2k coming off a game in which he really disappointed the 30% of people who rostered him. He will be very low owned.

NEW*** Avoiding biases/Challenging preconceived notions:

Tourney Winning Plays:

Game Environment:

My Plays:

Leverage Plays:

At OWS, we look for the GAME ENVIRONMENTS that produce tourney winning scores. In addition, we need to know who the TOP PLAYS are (despite ownership) and not be afraid to play them! We look for ANGLES that allow us to fit the best plays into a lineup that is different. Finally, we need to be considering good LEVERAGE spots that we can take advantage of. That’s what I look for in this space.

How I structure my Notes:

Initial Thoughts: Before I read the NFL Edge I find time to do my own research and synthesize some of my thoughts about the game.

Tourney Winning Plays: Players who get enough volume and quality volume to post a tourney winning score on their own regardless of the game environment. Most DFS players will be building around these pieces.

Likely Game Environment and stacks within that environment to capitalize on in order to squeeze as many FPs as possible out of good games.

My Plays are the people I will be looking to roster from this game.

Leverage plays are written later in the week, like on Saturday, after I have gotten a full feel for the slate and know where I can gain leverage off of likely high ownership or -EV chalky spots.

Trying to Win another Tourney! (213.64 POINTS!!!) – Scroll down for a better description of how and why I structure my game notes in this manner.

Initial Thoughts: The opportunity WAS has to win this game can only come through limiting SFs scoring. WAS cannot score on SF with regularity. WAS does have a pretty good run D, but SF has enough play makers on offense and enough of a dynamic offense that the WAS D shouldn’t stop them. There are not many other pathways to this game developing other than a slow game environment with SF gradually increasing taking control. Heinicke + McLaurin (11.5k) had produced solid scores before, but you take on a lot of risk (tanking your roster risk) for a possible 5x score and you only get two spots on your roster correct. Good but I’m guessing there are other spots that have a better than 10% chance of hitting. SF could always dominate like they did vs. Bucs, but that takes McCaffrey out of the game before he has a real chance to pay off his 8.8k salary. This is mostly a stay away game.

NEW*** Avoiding biases/Challenging preconceived notions:

Tourney Winning Plays:

Game Environment:

My Plays:

Leverage Plays:

At OWS, we look for the GAME ENVIRONMENTS that produce tourney winning scores. In addition, we need to know who the TOP PLAYS are (despite ownership) and not be afraid to play them! We look for ANGLES that allow us to fit the best plays into a lineup that is different. Finally, we need to be considering good LEVERAGE spots that we can take advantage of. That’s what I look for in this space.

How I structure my Notes:

Initial Thoughts: Before I read the NFL Edge I find time to do my own research and synthesize some of my thoughts about the game.

Tourney Winning Plays: Players who get enough volume and quality volume to post a tourney winning score on their own regardless of the game environment. Most DFS players will be building around these pieces.

Likely Game Environment and stacks within that environment to capitalize on in order to squeeze as many FPs as possible out of good games.

My Plays are the people I will be looking to roster from this game.

Leverage plays are written later in the week, like on Saturday, after I have gotten a full feel for the slate and know where I can gain leverage off of likely high ownership or -EV chalky spots.

Trying to Win another Tourney! (213.64 POINTS!!!) – Scroll down for a better description of how and why I structure my game notes in this manner.

Initial Thoughts: The opportunity WAS has to win this game can only come through limiting SFs scoring. WAS cannot score on SF with regularity. WAS does have a pretty good run D, but SF has enough play makers on offense and enough of a dynamic offense that the WAS D shouldn’t stop them. There are not many other pathways to this game developing other than a slow game environment with SF gradually increasing taking control. Heinicke + McLaurin (11.5k) had produced solid scores before, but you take on a lot of risk (tanking your roster risk) for a possible 5x score and you only get two spots on your roster correct. Good but I’m guessing there are other spots that have a better than 10% chance of hitting. SF could always dominate like they did vs. Bucs, but that takes McCaffrey out of the game before he has a real chance to pay off his 8.8k salary. This is mostly a stay away game.

NEW*** Avoiding biases/Challenging preconceived notions:

Tourney Winning Plays: cmc but threat of rest is real and WAS has a solid run D. Kittle at TE is solid with no Deebo and Purdy seems to agree.

Game Environment: not attractive

My Plays: Kittle.

Leverage Plays:

At OWS, we look for the GAME ENVIRONMENTS that produce tourney winning scores. In addition, we need to know who the TOP PLAYS are (despite ownership) and not be afraid to play them! We look for ANGLES that allow us to fit the best plays into a lineup that is different. Finally, we need to be considering good LEVERAGE spots that we can take advantage of. That’s what I look for in this space.

How I structure my Notes:

Initial Thoughts: Before I read the NFL Edge I find time to do my own research and synthesize some of my thoughts about the game.

Tourney Winning Plays: Players who get enough volume and quality volume to post a tourney winning score on their own regardless of the game environment. Most DFS players will be building around these pieces.

Likely Game Environment and stacks within that environment to capitalize on in order to squeeze as many FPs as possible out of good games.

My Plays are the people I will be looking to roster from this game.

Leverage plays are written later in the week, like on Saturday, after I have gotten a full feel for the slate and know where I can gain leverage off of likely high ownership or -EV chalky spots.

Trying to Win another Tourney! (213.64 POINTS!!!) – Scroll down for a better description of how and why I structure my game notes in this manner.

Initial Thoughts: none needed but Derrick Henry

NEW*** Avoiding biases/Challenging preconceived notions:

Tourney Winning Plays: The Texans have played tough against the Cowboys and Chiefs the last two weeks. They held both offenses to 57 total combined points and 900+ yards of total offense, not exactly a top tier defense, but impressive not the less. The Titans will be difficult to run the ball on and HOU doesn’t have a great passing offense, so I expect HOU to finally have a more difficult time scoring points. Besides turnovers I am not really sure how they have done it. Expect TEN to run the ball constantly through Derrick Henry and for him to clear 100 yards easily in this game. He is the only player I have any interest in here and I am sure plenty of other people will have similar interest. Henry + Titans D will be pretty chalky.

Game Environment:

My Plays:

Leverage Plays:

At OWS, we look for the GAME ENVIRONMENTS that produce tourney winning scores. In addition, we need to know who the TOP PLAYS are (despite ownership) and not be afraid to play them! We look for ANGLES that allow us to fit the best plays into a lineup that is different. Finally, we need to be considering good LEVERAGE spots that we can take advantage of. That’s what I look for in this space.

How I structure my Notes:

Initial Thoughts: Before I read the NFL Edge I find time to do my own research and synthesize some of my thoughts about the game.

Tourney Winning Plays: Players who get enough volume and quality volume to post a tourney winning score on their own regardless of the game environment. Most DFS players will be building around these pieces.

Likely Game Environment and stacks within that environment to capitalize on in order to squeeze as many FPs as possible out of good games.

My Plays are the people I will be looking to roster from this game.

Leverage plays are written later in the week, like on Saturday, after I have gotten a full feel for the slate and know where I can gain leverage off of likely high ownership or -EV chalky spots.

Trying to Win another Tourney! (213.64 POINTS!!!) – Scroll down for a better description of how and why I structure my game notes in this manner.

Initial Thoughts: CIN and Joe Burrow get another chance to get their elite passing offense going, but NE is a pretty tough D to face, especially vs. the pass. There is little expectation for the NE offense in this spot meaning CIN will have to keep their foot on the gas pedal in order to really rack up the DFS points. CIN will likely find a way to score TDs, but it is hard to lock onto one of the WRs and hope they produce a tourney winning score. It is more likely that the opportunities are spread out amongst Chase, Higgins, Boyd or that one pops off for a usable DFS score in this one.

NEW*** Avoiding biases/Challenging preconceived notions:

Tourney Winning Plays: none

Game Environment: seems fine but unlikely to shootout. Hard to pinpoint who might put up a 4x score and the ceiling isn’t much above that.

My Plays: likely none but I’ll play Chase on teams where it makes sense to grab an expensive guy who can put me over the top.

Leverage Plays:

At OWS, we look for the GAME ENVIRONMENTS that produce tourney winning scores. In addition, we need to know who the TOP PLAYS are (despite ownership) and not be afraid to play them! We look for ANGLES that allow us to fit the best plays into a lineup that is different. Finally, we need to be considering good LEVERAGE spots that we can take advantage of. That’s what I look for in this space.

How I structure my Notes:

Initial Thoughts: Before I read the NFL Edge I find time to do my own research and synthesize some of my thoughts about the game.

Tourney Winning Plays: Players who get enough volume and quality volume to post a tourney winning score on their own regardless of the game environment. Most DFS players will be building around these pieces.

Likely Game Environment and stacks within that environment to capitalize on in order to squeeze as many FPs as possible out of good games.

My Plays are the people I will be looking to roster from this game.

Leverage plays are written later in the week, like on Saturday, after I have gotten a full feel for the slate and know where I can gain leverage off of likely high ownership or -EV chalky spots.

Trying to Win another Tourney! (213.64 POINTS!!!) – Scroll down for a better description of how and why I structure my game notes in this manner.

Initial Thoughts: There is not much exceptional about the Giants. They have no players over a 16% target share (Saquon, Slayton, Richie James) and they do not pass that often except for the game they got blown out by DET. No one is going to get enough volume on their own to play outside of game stacks. Speaking of game stacks, the Vikings are another team that just seems to play to high scoring totals nearly every week. There will definitely be some offense in this game. Targets for MIN should run through Hockenson and Jefferson and the game environment should push D. Jones to the air a bit, but it also wouldn’t be surprising if the individual scores in this game fail to produce scores you need to win a tourney at the prices we are seeing. I would almost rather bet on the game environment by playing Daniel Jones + WR, realizing that NYG will probably be forced to come back at some point and Jones can either run the ball or lock on to Slayton or R. James.

NEW*** Avoiding biases/Challenging preconceived notions:

Tourney Winning Plays: Jefferson should get a lot of volume and be the first look when the blitz gets going.

Game Environment: NYG could drag down the pace of this game. They could make it very hard for MIN to sustain drives at the beginning of the game and ultimately slow things down a bit, but once MIN figures things out they can always post a tourney winning score.

My Plays: Just game stacks with Jefferson, Dalvin, D. Jones, one of Slayton/R James.

Leverage Plays:

At OWS, we look for the GAME ENVIRONMENTS that produce tourney winning scores. In addition, we need to know who the TOP PLAYS are (despite ownership) and not be afraid to play them! We look for ANGLES that allow us to fit the best plays into a lineup that is different. Finally, we need to be considering good LEVERAGE spots that we can take advantage of. That’s what I look for in this space.

How I structure my Notes:

Initial Thoughts: Before I read the NFL Edge I find time to do my own research and synthesize some of my thoughts about the game.

Tourney Winning Plays: Players who get enough volume and quality volume to post a tourney winning score on their own regardless of the game environment. Most DFS players will be building around these pieces.

Likely Game Environment and stacks within that environment to capitalize on in order to squeeze as many FPs as possible out of good games.

My Plays are the people I will be looking to roster from this game.

Leverage plays are written later in the week, like on Saturday, after I have gotten a full feel for the slate and know where I can gain leverage off of likely high ownership or -EV chalky spots.

Trying to Win another Tourney! (213.64 POINTS!!!) – Scroll down for a better description of how and why I structure my game notes in this manner.

Initial Thoughts: This looks like a very fun game to target for DFS. The Hawks are very condensed on offense with Geno/Metcalf/Walker and Goodwin I guess. They should be pressed to throw the ball and try to keep up with a KC offense that will eventually score points during the game. Juju and Kelce are the obvious target hogs with McKinnon still getting 7-8 targets nearly every game when healthy. The offense is not necessarily looking for those big plays, but seems to do fine with a more efficient passing style – racking up receptions. It might happen that the target hogs also grab the TDs one of these games making Mahomes and one of Kelce/Juju a had to have it piece this week. You might as well bring it back with Metcalf or Goodwin (or Fant) at a cheaper price.

NEW*** Avoiding biases/Challenging preconceived notions:

Tourney Winning Plays: DK Metcalf is such a sure bet for 10+ targets. Honestly so is Juju and so is Kelce. All can be considered high floor and high upside pieces. Put Geno in the same mix and Mahomes. Lots of tourney winning plays from this game.

Game Environment: it’s obviously going to be a good game environment. KC would have to fail massively and let SEA compete with a middling run game.

My Plays: Geno Smith with Marquise Goodwin and DK Metcalf could combine for 200 yards (1 bonus) and 13 receptions and 2TDs (48 points, like 4x) and Geno would be a good bet to add to that. I want Kelce and/or Juju as a run back – they are going to run into some TDs soon. I like McKinnon but I’m also wary of playing the hot hand.

Leverage Plays:

At OWS, we look for the GAME ENVIRONMENTS that produce tourney winning scores. In addition, we need to know who the TOP PLAYS are (despite ownership) and not be afraid to play them! We look for ANGLES that allow us to fit the best plays into a lineup that is different. Finally, we need to be considering good LEVERAGE spots that we can take advantage of. That’s what I look for in this space.

How I structure my Notes:

Initial Thoughts: Before I read the NFL Edge I find time to do my own research and synthesize some of my thoughts about the game.

Tourney Winning Plays: Players who get enough volume and quality volume to post a tourney winning score on their own regardless of the game environment. Most DFS players will be building around these pieces.

Likely Game Environment and stacks within that environment to capitalize on in order to squeeze as many FPs as possible out of good games.

My Plays are the people I will be looking to roster from this game.

Leverage plays are written later in the week, like on Saturday, after I have gotten a full feel for the slate and know where I can gain leverage off of likely high ownership or -EV chalky spots.