SF has consistently demonstrated the ability to score 27+ points in games with Deebo Samuel playing. BAL was the one team that was able to stop them. KC has a pretty good D, but not of the same caliber as BAL.
KC has not allowed more than 27 points all season with only 4 teams scoring over 20.
Mahomes has such a low depth of target and depends on his players to create after the catch, very similar to Purdy who at least has some deep threats he can rely on.
Both teams have extremely condensed target trees. It is easy to identify the 6 players who will receive the most targets/touches; CMC, Pacheco, Deebo, Aiyuk, Rice, Kelce (and sometimes Kittle).
Tourney Winning Plays:
SF continues to provide at least one (often only one) score over 27 DK points per game. The most consistent player to reach that threshold is CMC, then Deebo, then Aiyuk. I am sure one of those three will serve as a good (if not great) CPT option in this game.
In games which they have won (lets look at the last 4) one and only one of Rice, Kelce, Pacheco has scored 24+ DK points. We should count on one of them producing.
Game Environment:
KC is dependent upon Mahomes slowly moving the ball down the field with his accuracy, scrambling ability and amazing poise under pressure. Until late in the season they had been having issues in the red zone, but not recently. I trust this recent success given the talent they have on the field and amongst the coaching staff.
SF is reliant on CMC to move the chains and set up big play opportunities. SF can often produce explosive plays and KCs D will be challenged to stop those as only BAL really has.
Perhaps KCs best bet is to force Purdy into turnovers, which is entirely possible but also unpredictable. More turnovers from SF will give Mahomes more chances to control the clock. SF will find success and score at some point, but more possessions could put KC above their scoring average, likely what KC needs to win this game.
My Plays:
While CMC, Deebo and Aiyuk are appropriately priced, Kelce is obviously priced for his recent success and the obvious narratives surrounding him. It seems as likely that Rice or Pacheco has the best game for KC. I will be rostering those two more than Kelce.
Mahomes and Purdy are very interesting pieces. KC has been limiting opponent’s points and thereby limiting his own ceiling. He rarely passes for over 300 yards and rarely produces big DK scores. KC is far more susceptible to the run and CMC can steal plenty of DK points from Purdy, making both QBs floor pieces in a lower scoring game that Vegas projects.
Mahomes and Purdy both become highly sought after and necessary in a game script where KC is gaining extra possessions off of turnovers and Purdy is forced to pass more to outscore KC. You can play either one for the floor, but when playing both together, recognize that you are hoping for a shootout.
You are most likely going to be rostering two players under the 6k price and there are numerous possibilities. None of these pieces are likely to score over 10 points and many will end up ruining your rosters. It wouldn’t be a bad decision to roster a $200 player and try to fit in Kittle at 6.4k. Hitting on 2 of the low probability plays is unlikely unless you are playing an MME contest.
I will experiment with cheap players or Kickers or Defense in the CPT spot in game scripts that predict a lower scoring game. The KC D has been awfully good all year.
SF is pretty good at getting close to 30 points in a game. They scored 27+ in 12/13 games with Deebo playing and 30+ in 10/13. The only game they failed offensively was vs. BAL.
One of the SF top 3 is going to eclipse 27 DK points whether it be CMC, Deebo, or Aiyuk. Kittle is a solid play when Deebo is out and sometimes he can make big plays that up his fantasy production, but his ceiling with Deebo playing is not elite.
DET splits production amongst 5 players; ARSB, both RBs, and LaPorta with lower priced WRs sometimes putting up a decent score.
Targeting the fantasy production smartly in this game is not a mystery that needs solving.
Tourney Winning Plays:
Deebo > Aiyuk > CMC based on price, matchup and ownership.
ARSB > Gibbs > Monty > LaPorta based on matchup. I don’t care about ownership or price when DET is concerned.
It has become pretty clear how each team will try to win at this point and what players can be expected to score fantasy points. Finding the right combo that is low owned is going to be the trick.
For KC, it’s Pacheco or Rice who we should expect to score points and as many assumed, Kelce is of course back. That is pretty much all you have to consider from KC.
BAL is one of those teams where the TDs could flow to any of a number of players. If BAL is pressured to score and get aggressive (the playoffs often give you that urgency) Lamar is surely going to be scoring points at a high rate.
Tourney Winning Plays:
Lamar Jackson has the highest likelihood of scoring the most points in this game because he will be running plenty with KC being so good at defending the pass.
Isaiah Pacheco should get a closer to 20+ touches if KC gets more plays, something that will likely depend on game environment and script. Pacheco will be a better play with a BAL offensive piece.
Rashee Rice will also get his fair share of looks with one of the most accurate and creative QBs in the league.
Kelce had his ceiling game vs. BUF. He can eclipse 20 points and be the highest scoring TE, but it’s no where near a lock.
Game Environment:
BAL is going to test KC with one of the best Ds in the league which is historically good. KCs offense can flow through a few players, but BAL should be able to stop them and at least make things difficult.
BAL has a good offense that really excels in the running game which includes Lamar Jackson scrambling as well. If they stick to their game plan, BAL should be able to consistently move the ball and score, forcing KC to get more aggressive downfield. The problem is that KC doesn’t really have the pieces for that.
KCs best shot is to force a defensive game and generate some turnovers to give them more opportunities vs. this very difficult BAL D.
My Plays:
I do not want any pieces from KC. Pacheco and Rice are the only KC players over the course of the season who have been putting up “had to have it” scores and they are each 40% owned on this slate.
I do want to roster all of the combinations of pieces form BAL that I can fit in. Lamar isn’t even necessary if I expect a lower scoring game in this spot.
I like Gus Edwards, Nelson Agholor, Mark Andrews, OBJ, and BAL D.
It is hard to think of this game as something other than a slugfest that stays low to modestly scoring. However, a very low owned game stack that plays off of a high scoring affair could be profitable.
BUF has not had a viable tourney scoring player outside of Josh Allen and James Cook. One or the other should do well in this spot.
KC has had tourney viable scores from Rashee Rice and Isaiah Pacheco. Those two are most likely to contribute in this spot.
Tourney Winning Plays:
Josh Allen is going to lead the team in every way possible. He has the best chance to produce the highest raw score in the game.
Isaiah Pacheco will get 20 + touches and likely more. He is going to be needed as BUF won’t want to allow Mahomes to beat them, even though KC doesn’t throw the ball very deep anymore.
Rashee Rice will get the majority of passing work for KC and he is playing with the top QB in the game. He is underpriced for this slate.
Game Environment:
Both teams have the components to run and pass the ball and they are evenly matched. Turnovers will likely affect this game and the teams were tied on giveaways per game this year.
This is an evenly matched game with a wide range of outcomes that most of people will not bet on to shootout.
My Plays:
If this game is going to be low owned I will want to stack it up. My ideal stack would include Josh Allen, Isaiah Pacheco and Rashee Rice with any cheap options thrown in with it. If its very low owned I could see myself playing a 20 max with these three players and mixing and matching everything else.
I will throw any of those three players into any lineup: Josh Allen, Rashee Rice, Isaiah Pacheco. I would even put James Cook in lineups that do not have Allen.
DET is a somewhat easy team to diagnose for fantasy scoring. If they have a decent scoring game, which is likely in this spot, the DFS points will be spread out between about 5 players, with none likely to hit for a 30 pointer, but a few likely to finish scoring between 20-30.
TB should be able to score points in this spot against a DET secondary that has been giving up big stat lines all year long. Mike Evans has been the only TB player who consistently puts up separator scores.
What type of game will this be? DET is dynamic on offense and can run or pass. Jared Goff should be able to exploit the holes in the zone and push the ball down the field.
TB will struggle to run the ball as they have most of the year, but will find ways to make big plays against this DET secondary.
This game has the greatest chance to turn into a shootout with the amount of passing both teams should be expected to do.
Tourney Winning Plays:
Mike Evans on TB should see the highest number of targets and he has had multiple games this year where he has produced ceiling scores.
ARSB is the most likely to command a big portion of the offensive targets in this spot and with PPR scoring, his points should add up quickly.
Game Environment:
TB found a way to run the ball 29 times vs. PHI and still pick up 300 yards passing. Short runs and long passes. That same recipe may be in store for this game vs. DET who has a strong run D and beatable pass D.
DET has a balanced attack that is designed well from the beginning, but kind of one dimensional. They should find success, but it is of the short variety. They have to constantly drive the field and if their run game is working they can do that well. TB is decent vs. the run.
TB also limits scoring in the red zone and they finished third in the league at that stat. If TB is successful, they can continue to play their run balanced approach.
With all of the passing that is to be expected against two teams not great at defending the pass, there should be a lot of PPR scoring by wide receivers or TEs in this game. TD scoring would be a huge bonus for the game environment.
My Plays:
I like rostering the guys in this game who will eat up a lot of yards and receptions. I think of ARSB primarily (he is the highest scoring WR this week) who will highly likely get 10+ targets, especially if DET is passing a lot.
I like Mike Evans because of his ability to post 30 point games, primarily through TDs.
I will plan to roster Chris Godwin to a lesser degree. He could be the one soaking up 10 targets in a heavy passing game.
Stacks of DET are always in play, but they are pretty expensive if DET has any trouble scoring against this good red zone D. Because their scoring is so condensed, any pairing of 2-3 DET players out of Gibbs, Monty, ARSB, LaPorta or Goff could hit for 4-5x.
If playing a few DET players I would consider running Mayfield, White, Evans knowing they can put up 75 as a concentrated player block. I do not think they are very likely to.
It has been the same script all year with SF. In weeks 11-17 they had at least one player score more than 27 DK points and often only one. Play one person from SF.
If you stack SF, play Purdy with one other player (2 is possible but less likely) and count on a good chance at a top pairing.
GB is much more difficult to predict. They have flourished with an improved run game and limited attempts from Love. The SF D is the weaker part of the D to attack.
IF the GB O line can protect and give Love time, there is no reason to think GB can’t keep up using the run to set up the pass.
If SF can break away on the scoreboard early, they can force Love to throw more than GB would like and result in some negative plays or stalled drives.
Tourney Winning Plays:
For SF it’s McCaffrey, Deebo, Aiyuk, Purdy, Kittle. They can all win you a tourney if you pick the right one.
Game Environment:
GB will look to set up the Aaron Jones run game, but will surely pass off of their success with that. A lot depends upon the success of the run. GB has been able to run on CHI and also DAL. They should have some success here.
SF will run their really well schemed offense to create big plays to big playmakers. It’s really hard to stop unless you can create turnovers. SF D will give GB a hard time and keep the chances coming on offense.
This is a good game for points to be scored if the teams can get TDs. Both teams are a bit slow, so I would stick to playing a limited number form this game.
My Plays:
I will be rostering at least one player from SF on every roster. They have been too consistent at producing 27+ point players to not take advantage. I like them Deebo > Aiyuk > CMC > Kittle based on price, ownership, and ability to hit that threshold.
I will consider pairing Brock Purdy with any of Deebo, Aiyuk or CMC.
I will consider playing Kittle with CMC.
GB had not had any player score above 23 DK points until last weekend when Aaron Jones and Romeo Doubs did it. I do not think I will be playing any GB players vs. this SF team.
BAL has a historically good pass D facing off against a remarkable rookie QB in CJ Stroud who wins with big, explosive plays.
HOU has been very good at defending the run, but Lamar brings a different dynamic to the run game and will allow BAL opportunities to extend drives when their running game puts them in difficult 2nd or 3rd down distances.
BAL should do fine in the passing game if it is needed and Lamar has been good enough when needed. He puts up big points seemingly in high scoring games. He’s kinda like Josh Allen, but with a better defense.
Tourney Winning Plays:
Besides Lamar, only Gus Johnson, Zay Flowers and Justice Hill have scored more than 20 DK points (this changes with Mark Andrews likely back)
Nico Collins will be in HOU and BALs game plans, however he should easily get the most targets on a HOU team that will need to find big plays somewhere.
Game Environment:
BAL will likely push the pace of the game only if they feel the need to, which means a good defensive game by BAL will likely lead to an underwhelming game for DFS. Still, this is the playoffs and BAL may want to flex a bit?
HOU will always be scheming the big plays, but this may be a spot they lean run heavy for as long as they can. They have lost many pass catchers and are left with a skeleton crew going up against one of the best historically.
So, this game will hinge on the success of the mediocre run offense of Houston or an explosive play team against a great defense.
The good thing is that if Houston is hitting in a meaningful way, BAL will likely be hitting in a Lamar kind of way at least.
BALs defense will be in play against a QB who likes to throw and should be leaned on if the run game doesn’t meet the need.
My Plays:
I think Devin Singletary will get a ton of usage in this game and he is cheap enough on the main slate to help even if he approaches 20 points.
I would stack this game primarily with Lamar/Zay and maybe Justice Hill, figuring BAL will choose the path of least resistance in the pass game.
Niko Collins is good enough and will get a lot of targets guaranteed if BAL does good that I would include him as a bring back in BAL stacks.
Since their bye, PHI has had a tough time and no good scoring games outside of Jalen Hurts and Devonta Smith a couple times. This TB team has been tough to score on all year and is playing at home.
TB is best played as one offs as they have only had a single person over 20 (usually Mike Evans) in any week outside of week 15 when they spiked to have 3 between 22 and 33.
This game is most likely to be a low scoring game with long drives and a few big plays that put the teams into scoring position. PHI has been much worse in the red zone and Mike Evans will surely be given his chances in the end zone to bring down a TD or two.
PHIs run D should survive in this spot because TB is not great in the run game. They will stick with it as they are usually close in score throughout the game and can afford to take time to gain 3 yards here and there.
However, it is very possible TB builds an early lead through TDs to their WRs and PHI is forced to become more aggressive in an attempt to come back. This may mean more running for Jalen Hurts which would be a nice Monday night hammer in full weekend slates.
Tourney Winning Plays:
Rachaad White has a very viable floor as he has had all season. He sees some of the best workload on the slate, but his team’s offenisve inefficiency often keeps him short of ceiling performance.
Mike Evans will see a healthy number of targets and is the primary TD threat for TB. He barely makes this list because his workload is on the fringes of the best WR plays, but his TD equity and big play ability and concentration as a part of this offense keep him here.
This is going to be a highly owned game stack in the Sunday Slate contests. Know that DET has a lot of good games between 20-30 DK points for 5 different players – Goff, ARSB, both RBs, LaPorta (TE).
LAR post plenty of good scores because they have a concentrated offense and they are very good.
This game looks like more of a shootout than any other spot and a highly concentrated group of players to choose from and likely profit from. You only need to get one thing right to get the highest upside plays on the slate hitting together.
Tourney Winning Plays:
Kyren Williams, Puka Nakua, Cooper Kupp, ARSB, Gibbs, LaPorta (TE), Monty, Goff, Stafford (in that order)
The Packers have not produced a 30 point fantasy game all year, but week 17 and 18 have produced tourney winning stacks all including Jordan Love.
CeeDee Lamb has seven games above the best GB DK score all year (28.3) often paired with Dak who had 5.
BUF was able to surprise DAL with the run and DET is a great running team, but no one else (maybe SF, ARI) have been able to run on DAL. I don’t think Aaron Jones is a great play this week. He could produce a fine score by volume, but DAL is still a great D and playing at home.
Maybe BUF was planning ahead for the cold weather playoff games when they decided to start throwing the ball less and involve their RBs and the legs of Josh Allen more? This BUF team is well equipped to drive the ball the length of the field and has multiple weapons inside the red zone.
When the rubber meets the road, Josh Allen is cutting into James Cook’s RB chances. James Cook should only be played in games that project a very comfortable win. This is that game according to Vegas – BUF has already blown out DAL, NYJ, MIA at home and WAS, on the road.
James Cook and Josh Allen have generally hit ceiling games frequently, but not on the same week. Josh Allen – 12, 16, 18…Cook – 14, 15.
PIT leans hard into the run and tries to get the ball in the hands of George Pickens when they need to. Mason Rudolph has been good, but he is also on the edge of negative plays often. He ended the year with 3 wins, but the competition was pretty weak.
PIT could compete with their pressure defense, but TJ Watt is out. PIT could compete with big plays to Pickens, but the weather significantly reduces that likelihood. Maybe PIT grabs a few turnovers and BUF gets called for a bunch of penalties, not really favorable circumstances for DFS.
Tourney Winning Plays:
Josh Allen has the highest upside of any QB on the slate because of what he does with his legs and arm. He is such a unique player because of his ability to scramble and find open receivers and his willingness to become a dominant runner.
KC has scored over 30 points 3 times this year (41, 31, 31). MIA has shown through injury and an improved defense, that outscoring opponents is not the only way they can win.
With all of MIAs core 4 having injury tags and facing a very good defense at KC, it is probable that this game plays to its Vegas total (or lower) which would likely lead to disappointing DFS scores with all of the core offensive pieces being priced up. This is for KC and MIA.
Since Week 11 (after the bye) the only KC players to score over 21 DK points were Rice (24, 27) and Pacheco (24, 26, 33). Stacking only those two players from this game would be very uncommon.
Tourney Winning Players:
Isaiah Pacheco will see over 20 touches in this game and he is heavily counted upon inside the 10. He has a great floor and pretty high ceiling as well.
Rashee Rice sees a bunch of targets (8+) from the best QB and has a large red zone role as well. He is also cheaper than other WRs with similar workloads, but he doesn’t have their same ceiling, likely the KC game script holding him back.
This sets up as a game with a lot of passing plays. HOU defends the run well and CLE has leaned into the pass with Flacco. CLE defends everything well and HOU has CJ Stroud and Co.
Most likely, CLE is able to build a lead and can defend HOU well enough to hold onto a win, but there are a lot of volatile pieces in this game. Flacco can be turnover prone. Stroud can be miraculous. This game has the potential to shoot out due to turnovers and/or stunning big plays.
CLE and HOU have shown tendencies (at times) to rely heavily on the run game. DFS players and fans would likely hate this game script, but it’s not out of the realm of possibility.
Tourney Winning Plays:
Amari Cooper should see 8+ targets and it is pretty likely he goes for even more than that. He is priced less than other players who have similar target projections, however his QB is still working off a small sample size.
David Njoku has a similar target opportunity, great YAC ability, and plays a position where his ceiling really outshines the rest.
BUF is attempting to win games with defense, ball control and the rushing game spearheaded by Josh Allen inside the red zone. Every game is different, with BUF responding to what the defense is giving them, but BUF is far less likely to simply let Josh sling it to his favorite play makers.
MIA is in the playoffs, so they may rest some of their serious injury cases. This is also a must win game for them, but getting Mostert and Waddle back for the playoffs are also big priorities.
This game depends a lot on if MIA is healthy and able to put some pressure on BUF to score points and keep up with the big play ability of MIA.
BUF is perfectly content to find shorter routes to pass to and continue feeding James Cook, but when the game is on the line, expect Josh Allen to take over by looking for big plays deep, extending plays with his scrambling, and taking off running when needed.
Tourney Winning Plays:
Josh Allen is going to be a strong play in any format and likely a must play in Showdowns. I will not play a roster without Josh Allen.
Game Environment:
If MIA is healthy, their skill position players will make this game higher scoring than it would be without them. As such, we can expect BUF to have to pass more than they might want to, leading to questions about who to pair with Josh Allen.
Any of the “core four” MIA skill players could be viable in this game and it’s likely, while one will stand out, several will be useful in creating winning lineups.
BUF will still depend largely on Josh Allen and one other player as a means of exploiting this MIA D. when they find something that works, they look to exploit that area. It could be Cook, Davis, Diggs or Kincaid.
Building Lineups:
** Waddle and Mostert not expected to play @TomPelissero
I will be looking to play Josh Allen and Achane in all my lineups. They are going to be so integral to their teams in this spot and have a high degree of skill/talent. I will run Allen with Cook on a lot of lineups, seeing as how this has a comparably high ceiling as any partner and happens more often.
I like the idea of defense playing a big part in this game so I like both Ds. BUF has been pretty conservative and/or ineffective on offense and MIA is pretty limited playing a good D. I figure that is the direction this game goes.
Tyreke Hill is a great play and highly likely to make an optimal lineup, but I could see him struggling in this spot with so much attention and his price being so high.
BUF K has been one of the higher scorers on his team and works well in these low total builds.
If I were to branch out, I would CPT Hill and play for a hot MIA to push BUF to pass and bringing Gabe Davis into play.
with one other BUF piece, while trying to include as many MIA pieces as I can out of Achane, Hill, he is not necessary by any stretch.
DALs fantasy production has been CeeDee and Dak as the only stand out performers ever since they have abandoned the run and went pass heavy.
The only plays worth rostering are CeeDee and Dak (best played together or Lamb as a one off) and perhaps the DAL D although they only have 1 sack in each of the last 5 games as teams have started to go run heavy against them.
This spot looks great on paper, but the plays worth rostering (Lamb, DAL D, Dak) are also the most expensive players at their respective positions. DAL needs to be much better in the red zone against a team playing pretty good red zone D.
Tourney Winning Plays:
CeeDee Lamb is the top raw projected player on the slate. DAL has everything to play for and should be featuring Lamb and WAS has not been good vs. the pass. WAS has been playing a more conservative D that could limit the whole offense a bit better than the last time they faced off.
Game Environment:
This game environment will depend on DALs success in the red zone early and/or WASs ability to control their possessions and not turn the ball over.
It is possible DAL has more success in the red zone and is able to convert more than 44% of the trips into TDs, thereby requiring Sam Howell to get more aggressive. That is where he is likely to make some mistakes and give the ball back to DAL with good field position.
WAS is not a good rushing team, so they will not be able to slow down DAL by running on them. DAL will get plenty of opportunities to move the ball and score. DAL will also likely get more chances to rush the passer and come up with turnovers or negative plays.
It is hard to see WAS succeeding in this spot. This looks very much like a DAL blowout. The only question is whether Lamb is worth it in a blow out win.
My Plays:
I am hoping I can afford Lamb on a fair number of rosters. He should see a good amount of work and DAL will not let up until they know they have their division locked up.
Lamb can be matched with Dak and you might as well thrown in a Cooks or Ferguson as bonus pieces, knowing that is this is a high scoring affair, its likely two pass catchers (even three) and going to be brought along.
Recognizing Bias:
Just because a game looks easy to win, it doesn’t mean it is. WAS could hang close here if DAL is getting run on. Fading DAL pieces would benefit a WAS rusher.
I have no idea what scheme Sam Darnold will be asked to run and with what weapons, but they will want to make sure he is well prepared ahead of the playoffs; I mean look what happened to them when they lost Purdy lat year.
LAR are less attractive, especially playing against a likely decent SF D and with Carson Wentz at the helm.
I will be interested to roster a piece or two of the playmakers in this SF offense. They should still be aiming for the big plays and if Darnold can simply get the ball to a playmaker in space, they can go off for some big plays. LAR struggle to pressure the passer and even less so without Donald.
Tourney Winning Plays: none
Game Environment:
LAR likely does not have a chance in the playoffs if Kyren Williams or Matt Stafford do not play, so I don’t think any of their system with Carson Wentz really matters towards the playoffs. LAR are also still facing an elite SF pass D.
SF on the other hand, does still have a chance to have a QB like Darnold step in a facilitate this offense and keep advancing. They should give him plenty of chances to connect with playmakers in space and see what he can do in preparation for a possible role in the playoffs.
SF will not have CMC to lean on so expect a number of other players to see increased volume and big play potential.
My Plays:
Depending on who is in for SF (Deebo, Aiyuk, Kittle OR Mitchell/Mason or R Bell) someone is likely to have some shots at big plays. I will be looking to put one of these cheap pieces into a roster or three.
Recognizing Bias:
Everything I said about SF is pure conjecture on my part, but it is how I am analyzing this situation that is totally uncertain.
Rarely are there a ton of points scored in NYG home games. Last week (51 total) was one of the highest point totals since…the last time PHI came to town in 2022.
PHI needs to win and needs to get back on track and this is a great spot to do that. I have no idea what went wrong last week for PHI, but in looking at the year’s data, this is still a top offense vs. a bottom tier defense.
Tourney Winning Plays:
AJ Brown is still looking at 10+ targets in this game, especially with D Smith looking iffy with an ankle injury. He is also priced like the alpha WR he is.
Dallas Goedert will get a a large number of targets in this spot and at TE he stands out as a possible “had to have it” piece, especially if Smith is out.
Game Environment:
PHI is expected to find ways to move the ball on offense especially through their passing game. The running game should supplant the big plays Jalen Hurts can make to his star wideouts and other pieces.
NYG will want to run the ball and given recent success vs. PHI, they may be able to stay in the game using only Saquon Barkley’s legs. However, should PHI jump to a lead, they will have to rely on the average arm of Taylor. NYG is not as explosive as PHI, but can match them if the score stays around what Vegas is projecting.
If PHI can hit the big plays – can this finally happen for DeAndre Swift (or happen again for Brown) – they should put NYG in a position where they will need to get aggressive and pass. Taylor has the upside to post a good score at his price and cheap WRs/TEs to go with him.
My Plays:
I like DeAndre Swift considering NYG gives up more big plays to RBs and PHI is still trying to figure out how to energize their run game ahead of the playoffs.
I also like AJ Brown as one piece that can really put a slate out of reach and who will be heavily relied upon to make plays, especially if Smith is limited.
Recognizing Bias:
Is PHI just broken? Playing against a division rival and coming off some disappointing games, maybe PHI is just best left alone again. I am obviously overrating them based on their recent form and their lack of “had to have it” scores at their elevated prices.
LV has been playing with a chip on their shoulder since the firing of their head coach and that should extend through the end of this game. LV will try to establish their strong running game and reliance on Davonte Adams in the passing game.
DEN showed their cards last week, and we should expect the same boring offense. They feature far too many pass catchers and a QB most people have never heard of against a solid D.
Tourney Winning Plays:
Whoever starts at RB for LV will be a solid play. DEN hasn’t really been as bad in terms of yardage allowed to RBs, but they still rank at the bottom DVOA vs. the run and LV is very committed to a lead RB. Jacobs or White (whoever starts) is a solid play.
Game Environment:
We can expect LV to take the path of least resistance vs. this DEN D and lean on the run. We can also, with high probability, expect LV to shut down the DEN offense, allowing LV to continue to lean on the run throughout the game. The only way they deviate from that is if DEN shows some offensive chops or is shutting down the run game.
DEN has a decent offense, but struggles especially when they get into scoring position. Behind Stidham I do not expect them to pose much of a threat to score. LV should find it easy enough to keep pace or stay well ahead of DEN. Therefore, LV will not really have to venture too far out of their comfort zone, the run game.
The way that Davonte Adams becomes playable at 7.9k is if LV struggles in the run game or DEN shows a decent offensive output.
My Plays:
I will be looking to roster Jacobs or White if Jacobs remains injured. The volume is really good for the price. Its not a must play, but a darn good one.
I will also be looking to take shots on Davante Adams in game scripts where the DEN D is taking away the run or forcing takeaways in general. He is a great upside play at his price, but he also could produce a total dud in games LV controls.
KC cannot improve their playoff position and is therefore resting their key starters including Mahomes. There are always a lot of cheap plays to pick through on KC and we have rarely hit with them, even with Mahomes behind center.
LAC shouldn’t give KCs first string defense any issue as they have no semblance of offensive playmakers with Stick at QB. I am not particularly interested in chasing any of the LAC skill position players.
Tourney Winning Plays: none
Game Environment:
This is a meaningless game for both teams, but not to the players on the field with something to prove. Still, players do not write game scripts and so the coaches who control such things will be looking to try many different pieces. This is not a spot to look for DFS goodness.
Still, with this game being played in LA, I would expect someone on LAC to have a notable game. You can spend time trying to guess who, or you could just look in other spots.
My Plays:
I will be considering Noah Gray as a very cheap TE who could see more work if Kielce is out.
Recognizing Bias:
I will admit that I have a bias when it comes to looking for plays in games that are meaningless. I know it is possible to find hidden gems, but I am not sure that I am the best person for that task. Still, taking chances in large field play is totally an acceptable strategy in spots like this.
CHI does play pretty slow and GB never runs a ton of plays, so expecting a shootout with two fairly evenly matched teams is still a somewhat muted affair.
Still, both teams have been clicking on offense and if the Packers can keep CHI pressing to score points, this game could produce a few good DFS scores.
GB will not have the luxury of leaning on their running game and will need Jordan Love to withstand the pressure and connect with his many play makers.
CHI is going to focus on the run and set up big play opportunities for DJ Moore. Fields will mix in with his legs as well.
If Love can withstand the pressure and find his receivers, this game could produce on par with SEA/ARI.
Tourney Winning Plays:
DJ Moore has seen 9+ targets in similar game set ups and he has produced big time as his connection with Fields has solidified. He should be in store for a big game again in this spot if Fields is accurate with his throws and there is no reason to think he won’t be.
If Foreman sits again, Khalil Herbert will likely see his 20+ touches at a low price and in a good offense. He would stand out as a strong value RB.
Game Environment:
CHI is trying to close out the year on a high note and will follow their script of solid D, good run game with Fields a part of it, and big plays to DJ Moore. CHI has managed to contain rushers.
GB will first have to contain the CHI offense which plays better from in front, and then hope to consistently move the ball through shorter passing to backs and TEs. It seems they have excelled in games where they can runtime ball or hit big plays to WRs. This could be a challenging spot for GB.
CHI will be hoping that Fields can keep the turnovers and negative plays from derailing their offense and GB will be hoping that they can operate without getting much help from their RBs. I have more faith in the CHI offense in this spot.
My Plays:
DJ Moore is back on the radar as a big time playmaker and I will want to roster him for his high floor and ceiling at only 7k. GB has allowed a number of good scores to top WRs and Moore should be the #1 target for Fields, especially with Kmet somewhat hobbled recently.
Tyler Kraft is in a good spot for the GB passing game since CHI filters targets there and he only costs 3.7k.
Aaron Jones may not get there on the ground, but he has a great opportunity for upside through the air in this spot. CHI has given up a 2 TDs to RBs through the air, 2 to TEs and 3 to WRs in the last 5 weeks.
ARIs offense looks pretty functional at this point in the season and fairly predictable. They want to run the ball and execute short passes and allow Murray to scramble when needed to prolong drives.
SEA is going to try to keep pace with ARI (rather than take risks that might put them ahead or behind) and create negative plays or turnovers on defense so that they can find ways to win in the 4th quarter.
This should be a fun offensive game as neither defense is that good and both offenses have the multiple weapons around the end zone. I expect a back and forth affair with multiple scoring opportunities. TDs rather than FGs could lead to a truly elite DFS spot in Week 18.
Tourney Winning Players:
James Conner should see a ton of touches as one of the primary offensive pieces in this spot. His targets are limited, but his usage when in the game and his TD equity pave a pathway to 25+ points.
Game Environment:
ARI does not have great downfield WRs, but SEA is better at taking those outside WRs away than those in the middle of the field. ARI should be able to move the ball and they are fairly concentrated on offense.
SEA is facing a porous defense that should not pressure the QB and should allow SEA the time they need to move the ball. One concern for SEAs offense is time of possession. They are not great at converting on 3rd downs and allowing ARI to bleed to clock will be detrimental to this game environment taking off.
Both teams can and should have success (#TheWorkbook shows one of the highest Combined Net Drive Success Rates for this game) which will make for an interesting 4th quarter in a must win game for SEA.
My Plays:
With a lot of uncertainty this week, this game gives us certainty around who will play and who will get most of the targets. I like game stacks here.
The ARI side is more interesting for stacking multiple flex pieces. They are cheaper and anyone from James Conner to Dortch to Wilson to McBride can put up a decent score.
Geno + 1 pass catcher is the way to generate the most upside in this spot. Metcalf has shown the ceilings this year while Lockett and JSN are cheaper and have put up good price considered scores.
Trey McBride is a bit more expensive than I would like, but he has a high ceiling and I wouldn’t be surprised if he was a big part of the ARI game plan should they be forced to come back or pass often.
Recognizing Bias:
Stacks of SEA have not been profitable this year and it’s not likely to change in this spot unless ARI puts up a big game offensively. There is a lot of safety in knowing this game will be hard fought all the way through, but let’s not overrate the safety factor.
PIT likes to play dirty, not in a devious way, but in a messy way. SEA can sometimes give into that style of game as well. I could easily see a game with big penalties and long drives that should chew up clock and keep the stats off the box scores.
Both Ds are very good. While SEA should be able to handle the pass rush and can quickly get the ball out, PIT is going to have some problems. PIT will likely lean on the run game, but SEA isn’t really weak in that area.
It’s hard to see this game competing with a lot of the other spots on the slate.
SF is going to bring one of the best and most consistent offenses with clear targets to our DFS lineups this week. We should all take note.
WAS is going to be passing a lot to come back and someone(s) is (are) going to go off for a 4x or more score.
So many other games have a wider range of outcomes than this one and we can get some assurance by rostering 49ers of a majority of our lineups.
Tourney Winning Plays:
Any of the core four for SF can hit here. Price considered I like Deebo > CMC > Aiyuk > Kittle.
Brock Purdy is also in consideration because of how many QBs have hit for big scores vs. WAS. He has a great floor in this spot and a decent ceiling. 4-5 TDs is not out of the question for Purdy here.
Game Environment:
There just isn’t much that needs to be said. SF has a historically good offense and WAS is not good on defense. SF WILL score 30+ and the + has the potential to be their biggest score of the year; > 40.
WAS will be passing a lot as well when they have the ball, which probably won’t be that often. They have so many mouths to feed on offense that predicting who hits for 4-5x is not something I will be looking to do – I am already guessing trying to get the right SF players.
My Plays:
I will be stacking Purdy and Deebo and CMC to start off a lot of lineups because in the event they are winning you a tournament you can count on 80-100 points from them. It takes a lot of salary, but that’s also a lot of points.
I will be playing one offs of Deebo and CMC as well. If playing 20 max or larger fields I will include Purdy stacks with Aiyuk and Kittle as well. This offense is just in a great spot.
NO is going to be able to move the ball through the air. They have really good short area targets when healthy and downfield targets and they have a good running game. They should be able to move the ball in this spot.
TB would like to pass the ball, but may find it difficult against NO. Mike Evans never does good against NO and his grounding would be a real loss for TB. Maybe a 6.1k Godwin will pay off here.
I don’t think either defense is going to fully stop the other and if we get a flurry of scoring in the 4th quarter we could see a real shootout here. Really good passing options with high ceilings.
Tourney Winning Plays:
Besides the week NO handily beat NO, Chris Olave has been seeing 8-9 targets and his athleticism really shines. Carr is good enough to get him the ball against this TB pass D. He is in play.
Rachaad White has the safest workload amongst RBs, the touches and targets just shines like a sparkling floor – only his ceiling is in question based on past performances, but it is there, especially in this run funnel spot.
Game Environment:
Both teams are pretty deliberate in their run/pass mix so we are not going to see some huge increase in passing. We are likeliest to see an evenly matched affair and as divisional matchups late in the season go, a lower scoring affair.
NO is the team more likely to tilt pass heavy and #TheWorkbook confirms my thinking with elevated PROE and CROE. Therefore, I imagine NOs success in the passing game could spur a higher scoring game and more aggressive TB team.
My Plays:
NO has so many pass catchers that it will be hard to pull the trigger on Chris Olave, but he truly does have a ton of upside in this matchup. He is probably best played as part of a NO stack with Carr and another pass catcher to take advantage of the game environment he will need to really hit a ceiling.
I will also be playing a TB bring back and Rachaad White is a favorite because he will be low owned and can compete with the most used RBs on the slate.
I will also consider Chris Godwin realizing that even though Marshone Latimore is not playing to shut down Mike Evans, NO has always had success against Evans and Godwin is well priced.
It will make a lot of sense for PHI to run the ball in this spot. They are also going to look for play action spots (or whatever they do on offense to create big plays) to AJ Brown et al. I am more interested in Brown because of his super high ceiling.
Smith can hit for a decent game and Goedert can always go off as well, but Brown has the chance to really put the slate out of reach if you don’t have him.
Trey McBride is deserving of his 5.9k price averaging around 10 targets, but he can easily be beat by lesser priced TEs this week. Still, a bet on PHI that goes well will necessitate McBride again and he has been real good.
Tourney Winning Plays:
AJ Brown consistently sees 10+ targets and in this matchup he can totally blow up with that usage. Brown is probably my favorite play from this game and has one of the highest ceilings on the slate.
Game Environment:
PHI should have no trouble moving the ball against ARI, they have only struggled against the best defenses when they haven’t been able to connect on big plays. This should be a spot where they can move the ball on the ground by generating chunk plays and hit for big gains in the passing game.
If PHI can hit for big plays through Brown and/or Smith, they will shorten their drives and create some urgency from ARI. Murray can use his legs and connect with McBride in an attempt to drive the length of the field, seemingly the best and only option they have.
If PHI struggles to connect for big plays, they will likely disappoint DFS players because of the clock killing nature of these two teams. If PHI isn’t scoring quick, they will chew up clock and ARI is certainly wanting to hold the ball for as long as they can.
My Plays:
I am targeting AJ Brown in this spot and consequently Jalen Hurts. If Brown is producing a “had to have it” score, this game can actually pop a bit. Brown hitting would put Swift in play.
Trey McBride is a good play on his own for his floor/ceiling as the main offensive piece for ARI, but he is a better play if Brown is hitting forcing ARI to play a bit faster and feed him more targets downfield.
I went through the scoring during last weeks Showdown matchup of Rams/NO and it became a rule to play 2 of the 4 studs on every showdown lineup. At least one should be on 80% of your DK lineups.
LAR are a very good offense playing a inconsistent NYG defense. I hate to roster DFS plays from games played at NYG stadium, but there have been a fair number of blowouts and I think we may see a blowout here.
I have some interest in Darren Waller as a cheaper TE who could really post a had to have it score.
Tourney Winning Plays:
Kyren Williams is a GREAT PLAY (TD equity, carries, ability, matchup) and he is priced appropriately for the points he is expected to put up in this spot. I worry about his lack of targets in an easy win last week.
Puka and Cupp have combined for 34 and 38 targets respectively over the last 4 games. One of them has scored 27, 28, 29, and 36 DK points in those games. Its a good idea to be playing one of Kupp or Nacua on every roster.
Game Environment:
LAR should be able to move the ball and score plenty with Kyren leading the running game and Stafford connecting with Puka and Kupp and now Demarcus Robinson. This is a dynamic offense that utilizes pre-snap movement to create space for WRs and Stafford has found a lot of success putting the ball where it needs to be.
NYG primarily like to play through Saquon Barkley, who like many RBs priced around him, will need to score TDs to meet value.
LAR do not put a ton of pressure on the QB, so it’s possible Tyrod Taylor has the time to connect with his WRs downfield and keep NYG in this game. He had nominal success against PHI and will need to hit for big plays downfield to keep up with LAR on the scoreboard.
This looks like a decent game environment for LAR mini stacks with clear NYG bring backs.
My Plays:
I want to roster Puka and Kupp on a wide variety of lineups. I will include Kyren Williams and/or Stafford, but if I am rostering more than one LAR I will include some bring backs from NYG.
My NYG bring backs will include Barkley, Slayton or Waller. Tyrod Taylor is a good option for 4x at the QB position while freeing up salary for other spots.
Recognizing Bias:
Games played at NYG stadium are often low scoring (unless there is a blowout) and I usually discount these games all together as lacking upside. I recognize that I am not harboring that bias this week and that might be a problem.
Bryce Young had a good game at home against GB after going down 30-13 in the 4th quarter. He does have a few good instances taking advantage of garbage time and 4th quarter defenses, do if JAX has taken a big lead, we can speculate on the CAR offense.
JAX should be able to run the ball effectively in this spot, but they have not been a strong running team and outside of scoring multiple TDs, which he could, Travis Etienne is not likely to be worth it at 7.2k even though 30 points is within his range in a must win game for JAX.
I don’t expect a high scoring game, but their could be some useful players to roster if things go the way I am seeing them.
Tourney Winning Plays: none
Game Environment:
Neither team is really set up well on offense to play without trepidation and caution. This is likely the reason for the low game total.
JAX has a lot of weapons, but their offense struggles due to a poor run game and injuries in the passing game. CAR also struggles at the QB position to distribute the ball and that limits their abilities.
The one angle worth considering is if JAX can create some big plays in the run game (it doesn’t have to be Etienne alone who gets carries) and force a situation in the 4th quarter where a cheap Bryce Young is hitting a cheap DJ Chark again.
My Plays:
The only plays I would consider are Etienne paired with Bryce Young and DJ Chark (15.7k combined salary). If Etienne gets a big play and a couple TDs he can hit for 25-30 points and then all you need is 30-35 points from the CAR pieces to reach 4x with upside for more.
Recognizing Bias:
I am not sure if this combo even gives you the possibility of a separator score on your lineup and it comes with a lot of downside.
IND is a much better offense with Pittman playing and they should be able to move the ball against this LV team.
LV wants to run the ball and hide their passing game while depending on their defense to create pressure and limit big plays. MIA and DET are the only big play capable teams they have played recently and they both put up over 400 yards of offense.
IND isn’t likely to be able to force LV out of their low scoring game script, but they have also allowed plenty of big rushing games which should play right into LVs plans with Josh Jacobs.
CJ Stroud can do a lot of great things on a football field and especially when his back is against the wall. HOU needs to win this game and Stroud can deliver, even against a stingy TEN D.
HOU is more susceptible to the pass than the run, and even though TEN would rather hide their passing game, they will open up the offense if forced.
TEN is always a spot that CAN shoot out, even though it is an unlikely bet. CJ Stroud and the HOU offense is a group I think can pull TEN out of their shell and lead to a shootout.
Tourney Winning Plays: none, it depends on game environment.
Game Environment:
If this game stays close throughout, expect a run heavy script from both teams. If one team jumps out to a lead, expect more passing and at least some DFS goodness from the passing attacks.
HOU seems like the team that could instigate a higher rate of passing. They use the run to create opportunities for their WRs to hit on big plays. TENs D is usually quite good at eliminating those, but HOU has multiple players (Collins, Brown) who are great at YAC.
If TEN is forced to pass more, they will likely look to Hopkins and HOU has been beat through the air by multiple teams this year. Its not a sure fire setup for “had to have it” scores, but there is a path.
My Plays:
Nico Collins has put up big games in a lot of seemingly bad spots this year. Noah Brown has a few good games against pass funnel teams (is TEN still considered that?) and CJ Stroud has considerable upside. I would play double stacks or use the WRs as one offs.
Deandre Hopkins can get 10+ targets if TEN needs to pass and HOU is better attacked through the air so he is an obvious bring back in lineups that feature HOU pieces.
Recognizing Bias:
Prices are quite high on these pieces with less assurance of them hitting than other spots we want to target (SF, LAR). Still, the ceilings are similar and the prices are a bit lower than SF, LAR.
CHI plays sound run D and should be able to hold the one receiving threat, Drake London, to a lackluster game. ATL will be forced to move the ball through their TE duo and RBs out of the backfield.
ATL plays a style of D that should keep Fields and company from making explosive plays. Coupled with their clock killing offense (they play relatively fast but keep the clock running), this game just doesn’t look like a good spot for DFS goodness.
Tourney Winning Plays: none
Game Environment:
We know ATL is going to try to run the ball and when they pass, CHI filters targets to the TEs and RBs – this is an offense that will struggle to gain big chunks even more than they usually do.
CHI is not a great offense, even with all of their weapons healthy. They will likely lean into their D and the run game in an effort to take a lead. If they fall behind, expect Fields to use his scrambling ability to keep drives alive and hope to hit some big pass plays.
If DJ Moore and Kmet were both playing and ATL was able to take a lead, you could squint and see CHI having some success in catch up mode.
My Plays:
Bijan Robinson still does get enough pass game work to be viable, but there are a lot of pathways to him failing in this spot as well.
BUF has finally realized that whoever has the ball last will win the game and anything that happens before that is just window dressing. Not exactly, but I do think BUF knows they are not at their best when aggressively attacking downfield.
BUF will continue to play a balanced offense that works in the run and the pass, hoping to find big plays while consistently moving the ball and playing sound defense. NE will struggle to score with the team they are putting out on the field.
With BUF being so spread out on offense, it wouldn’t surprise me if none of the players in this game do enough to make a tourney winning roster outside of possible Allen himself.
BAL looked like the top rated pass defense against SF and they have the potential to slow down MIA as well, especially without MIAs full complement of impact offensive players.
It looks like MIA will need to lean into the run in order to move the ball, but Tyreke Hill and the MIA offensive scheme often defy what is normal – ceilings remain in this spot.
BAL, especially Lamar Jackson, looked great under pressure and while MIA will not be providing as much pressure, he should still be able to move the ball and put up enough points to keep MIA pressing on offense.
A wide range of outcomes are possible in this game, but I would lean towards expecting the total to go over if BAL can indeed score TDs rather than FGs.
Joe Flacco continues to throw the ball and CLE continues to win. Amari and Njoku continue to dominate targets. It would seem foolish to not get in on the action in this spot.
So the NYJ pass D is really good? CLE has faced three pass funnel Ds so it wouldn’t be surprising to see them shift more run balanced and if CLE passing game is going to be well owned, this might be the right play.
NYJ pass game is really bad and Breece Hall is an up and coming talent, but the offense as a whole has been really bad lately, and especially against the CLE D, I will not have much interest.
It seems like the CLE run game is the best spot to create leverage in this spot.
Game Environment:
CLE has loosed the reigns on Flacco for the most part, letting him throw deep and risk turnovers. He has 7 INTs and 10 TDs in 4 games (3 wins, 1 loss) and has thrown the ball 40+ times in every game.
NYJ have a good defense against both the run and the pass. This will be a better test for Joe Flacco than the last three pass funnel spots and with NYJ implied for less than 14 points, it is possible that CLE takes some of those deep shots out of the hands of Flacco, deciding to cut down on the risk. It seems like good strategy to throw the ball less and call more run plays.
However, the CLE run game is not reliable, and no one has been having much success against NYJs D, so it is also very possible that CLE just sticks with the aggressive mentality that Flacco brings to the table, realizing that NYJ is going to have a really tough time scoring on the elite CLE D.
Even if you did want to target the CLE run game in this spot, CLE has 3 RBs in the mix and all of them will split the workload.
NYJ is going to find the going tough against a good CLE D playing at home. Siemian gained 217 yards on 49 pass attempts against arguably the worst D in the league. This will not be an easy spot and he is a very risky play along with the entire NYJ passing offense.
NYJ will count on big plays from Breece Hall and possibly Garrett Wilson or they will simply rely on their D to create turnovers and negative plays. Hall is the only NYJ player I am excited to roster.
Building Lineups:
Lineups with Joe Flacco should include Amari and Njoku, but after that you will have to get creative in order to differentiate. I would be looking to play a third CLE WR like Marquise Goodwin hoping he is the recipient of a big play on Flacco lineups.
Joe Flacco doubles with no Amari nor Njoku have a path to victory and will be very low owned.
One of Ford or Hunt will be looked to inside the 10 yard line. In lineups that play Flacco double stacks, I will want to roster one or the other, hoping for one of the few TDs in this game.
CLE D should be highly owned for a defense and in this spot, they should compete with a lot of the players priced even higher than them. I would consider CLE D for some CPT lineups.
NYJ D is in consideration for me, but not paired with CLE D. NYJ consistently puts their D in bad spots. If NYJ D is going to be optimal, CLE D cannot be having a strong game as well. Consider pairing NYJ D with NYJ K.
NYJ offensive pieces outside of G. Wilson and Hall will go largely unowned. If Siemian is on a winning lineup, what type of game environment is taking shape? It’s possible both offenses struggle in this spot. How can Siemian outscore Flacco?
G. Wilson and Brownlee project to play the most snaps on NYJ. Can they both be rostered together? and what story does that roster tell?
Nothing is certain, especially in showdowns, so tell a different story and hope for the best!
The Bengals really have no choice, but to play very conservative because of their personnel. PIT will be able to pressure Browning and force him to focus on a few receivers, likely those of the shorter route variety and possibly Higgins.
The PROE on this game is slightly elevated based on CINs historical tendency to remain pass heavy. I am sort of thinking they approach the game through the air, but mix in plenty of runs, especially with Chase Brown contributing more.
PIT is certainly a run leaning team in this game, especially with the long shot projection of CIN jumping out to a lead quickly.
LAR have a dynamic offense with a strong ability to run and pass, which has helped them score 28+ points in their last 4 games. The strength of the opponent doesn’t seem to matter to LAR.
NO has consistently allowed a large number of rush yards, playing into how LAR will want to focus their efforts. Will Kyren Williams be able to shoulder the heavy load having touched the ball 34 times last Sunday?
NO spreads the ball out so much in the passing game that it almost doesn’t matter who suits up, but getting Olave back would be a huge boost for their downfield passing game.
This game matches up two teams who want to ensure they are evenly mixing in the run game with short passes (aDot for both is 7.8) attempting to successfully drive the length of the field. What should help for both teams is the lack of a strong pass rush.
Judging by Air Yards data, NO is much more likely to push the ball down the field to Olave/Shaheed while LAR would much rather target Nacua/Kupp on shorter routes.
The RBs are the real gems of this game and both will be highly owned.
Game Environment:
Neither team desires to really push the pace of the game and neither team should be too excited to pass the ball. Still, the passing game is the most likely to produce big DFS games and shootouts, so a winning DFS strategy in this showdown would be to roster players integral to a successful passing game for both teams.
LAR will be more inclined by the matchup to run the ball, but NO has a slight expected benefit to their passing game via #TheWorkbook. If LAR are successful, this could lead to a higher scoring game as NO is expected to have more success through the air than on the ground.
IF NO is passing, they do like to spread the ball around to multiple pass catchers. It may be best to spread ownership out to several different NO pieces because they all get low to decent usage. Olave might be an exception and command a ton.
LAR history shows us they will commit to Williams and the run game, but he is playing on a short week after a large number of carries/targets.
Building Lineups:
LAR hold 4/5 of the top dollar spots in the player pool, but its been the case that you need 2 of the 4 to compete for top rosters in games LAR are competitive in. The two “had to have it scores” have been a rotation of Kupp, Nacua, Williams and Stafford.
It may be a spot to roster 4 NOs players and 2 LARs players to not only flip the script of the more likely builds, but to also afford better players in general and be able to dictate the game story you are telling with each lineup.
That’s really all the info you need here. I will be rotating lineups with two LAR studs on every one playing for the game script that this is a decently high scoring spot, at least from LAR.
This game matches up two of the worst performing teams in terms of defensive red zone scoring. SEA has allowed 65% of red zone possessions for their opponents to end up in a TD. PHI has been worse, allowing 70%. Both Ds have been getting worse as the season wears on.
No matter the QB, each team should be in a good spot to score TDs when they get the chances. This puts those red zone threats more into play in this game.
SEA Red Zone threats: Metcalf = Walker > Lockett.
PHI Red Zone threats: Hurts > Swift > Brown > Smith
Game Environment:
SEAs D has been fairly incapable at stopping any offenses this year. They have had occasional success vs. the run game, but generally allow teams to move the ball and score TDs. PHI is going to be moving the ball no matter who their QB is.
PHI D has been exploited recently as well, especially in the run game, which was not their weakness early in the year. SEA does not have a dynamic offense, but they will find way to move the ball as well.
This game looks more likely to feature high scores than low. We should be rostering those players with the most offensive ceiling hoping to hit on a “had to have it” score that can separate us from the portion of the field that does not roster that player.
Building Lineups:
When AJ Brown hits, one of Goedert or Smith is also having a good game, so my Brown CPT lineups will feature one of those players.
When D Smith hits, he always brings another player with him, but its been Brown x 2, Hurts, and Swift. Those CPT lineups will be a little less structured.
I will not be building for 5-1 onslaughts because the Ds are just not good enough.
A stack of 4 SEA players is cheaper and SEAs production is a bit more spread out. I think it will be easier and allow for more ceiling production to roster 4 SEA players and 2 PHI.
DAL is not an easy D to move the ball nor score against. BUF is not an easy D to move the ball nor score against. Both teams will find ways to move the ball, but they will also stall out on drives and decide to add points to the score via FGs, decisions that could keep this game from really producing the DFS scores you need.
Dak + Lamb = 17.2k (need 69 for 4x) They have reached 63 vs. SEA and @ PHI and have reached 83 vs. NYG and 76 vs. LAR (all since their bye which marks a change in offensive philosophy) They are facing a good D on the road which makes this kind of ceiling less likely to be reached.
Allen + Diggs = 16.6k (need 66 for 4x) They have reached this mark once all year @ MIA when they scored 79 together. The next closest combined score was 60 and there have been plenty of duds.
You want to play the studs in a spot like this when two good offenses are facing off against good defense, but the studs are very expensive.
Tourney Winning Plays:
CeeDee Lamb has been consistently seeing targets and producing. The only knock on him here is his price and the strength of the BUF D in preventing points.
Game Environment:
Any game played between two top caliber teams has a wide range of outcomes. Since this game is in Buffalo in December and both teams have a good pass D, we can expect the more probable outcome is NOT a shootout.
Still, we have two mobile QBs who each are tied to a WR who can be a true target hog and games like that can blow up into spots where you need to have those pieces in order to win a tourney.
The path of least resistance for LAR is definitively in the pass game and Stafford has been playing well of late with his two top WRs.
WAS has shown an ability to excel in the passing game allowing Howell to put up big scores at QB.
It looks like WAS could give up a lot of points in this spot and give Howell a lot of chances to put up a big game himself.
Tourney Winning Plays:
All of Cooper Kupp, Puka Nacua, and Kyren Williams are on the cusp of being included here. They are all too expensive and are too equitable with the pot of points, but they all have a good matchup and solid volume.
Game Environment:
We know WAS is going to be passing the ball. They will have to put up points to compete with LAR and they will know this from the outset.
LAR have a really strong and balanced offense and will likely remain that way despite WAS being so susceptible to the pass. LAR will likely run to pass.
That’s going to be a lot of passing which should lengthen the game and increase the number of plays run. LAR do not have a great defense and Howell will have the time throw in this game. I expect him to put up a good fight.
My Plays:
I will have lineups with Stafford and a pass catcher (Kupp, Nacua, Kyren!!) because this is a great spot and they should see considerable volume.
I would like to roster Sam Howell again, but he spreads the ball out between receivers, his receivers rarely produce “had to have it” scores, and he is more expensive than Stafford.
Antonio Gibson is more than interesting at 5.2k if Brian Robinson is ruled out.
Recognizing Bias:
For the last 9 weeks, playing Sam Howell has been profitable with 3 scores above 25 and most above 20. However, only 2 WRs/TEs have posted separator scores at their current price tags. Still, if Howell posts 35 points like he did vs. PHI and a WR goes for 28 like Dotson did in that game, you may need that to win a tourney.
KC has a good defense that will be able to shut down the NE passing game, which is not saying much. NE has Zeke Elliott who will have to take on the entire Chiefs D pretty much on his own.
Mahomes should have the comfort of knowing NE will not outscore them, however I don’t think Mahomes’ nerves are hurting his team. KC cannot figure out how to move the ball against certain pass coverages and their WRs cannot catch the ball. KC will have opportunities if they can cash in.
We could see a Mahomes redemption game.
Tourney Winning Plays:
Patrick Mahomes is priced under 8k so we should probably play him now.
Rashee Rice is getting nearly 10 targets a game lately and has TD equity. He belongs with all Mahomes stacks and on his own.
Game Environment:
There isn’t much more to say except NE is facing a really good D and they already struggle to move the ball and score.
KC has not been impressive and according to their past we should not really bother, however I will not be surprised if Mahomes produces a 5TD game in this spot.
My Plays:
I will be playing Mahomes-Kelce stacks and Mahomes-Rice. I will not be including bring backs, but am fine playing KC D.
I will be playing Rashee Rice on his own because of his TD equity and solid volume for his price.
Recognizing Bias:
I am biased to think of Mahomes as a SuperBowl winning MVP type that can do it all. He may just end up with a bad regular season or he may bounce back. I don’t know, but I am sort of assuming he does…?
CLE defense seems to be a shell of itself with injuries piling up, but they should still pose a threat to CHI as they are ranked high vs. the run and the pass.
CHI has been opportunistic on D lately, but they have found an ability to pressure the QB and with their run stuffing D, they can create some havoc on the opposing QB. Flacco will be the subject of some pressure if CLE can’t run.
CHI has a very useful offense with the legs of Fields, DJ Moore and Cole Kmet. They will find ways to move the ball and CLE will be forced to pass giving them paths to a big game, but also giving CHI D paths to a big game.
Tourney Winning Plays:
DJ Moore at 6.9k is still just a steal. He is the main piece of this offense and should be priced higher.
Amari Cooper will get a ton of targets vs. a beatable secondary.
Njoku and Kmet are both great players to include in any stack of this game. They are priced under 5k, but have way more ceiling than they are being priced for.
Game Environment:
CHI is playing well and Fields is playing well. They have a lot of good weapons on offense and can stretch any defense with those playmakers. If they can convert TDs in the red zone, they should be able to push CLE to be aggressive through the air.
CLE will be still express confidence in their D and may try to ride the rushing game early, but it feels like they will be forced to be more pass heavy given the defensive strengths of CHI.
This game has the potential to be a pass heavy game with plenty of under priced players. #TheWorkbook sees this in much the opposite way with PROE and CROE in negative territory for both teams. This could present a nice spot to take advantage of at low ownership.
My Plays:
JM has one negative stat that has the potential to totally alter my thinking on this game (CHI hasn’t allowed a WR to gain over 77 yards). Looking at the teams, situations, and QBs they have faced this year, there is really an explanation for every instance. I have sincere expectations that Cooper or Moore or Ford do just that.
Therefore, I will be making stacks of this game that start primarily with CHI and include one WR/TE bring back from CLE.
I like DJ Moore and will play him on many lineups. He is under priced for his skill and volume.
Recognizing Bias:
I am seeing some negative stats concerning the offensive environment on #TheWorkbook and from JM, but I refuse to believe that the future of either of these teams can be captured by their past performance. Too much has changed or developed.
This CAR team may be 1-12, but they do a few things well. They have only allowed 2 teams to pass for over 250 yards (MIA, SEA) and only 3 other teams have passed for more than 200+ yards (DAL after their bye, DET, NO). Suffice to say, ATL will not be looking to find their success in the passing game.
It is all together obvious that ATL will lean hard into the run in this game and likely have some success doing it. Good rushing teams may rack up the yards, but CAR has kept one dimensional teams from scoring many points.
CAR should have some success moving the ball which will take away from ATLs possessions and lead to this game being lower scoring. This does not look like a good spot for DFS.
Tourney Winning Plays:
This is a really good spot for Bijan Robinson. Top RB scores vs. this CAR team have come from Mostert 37, Walker 30, Monty 24, Allgiers 24 and Bijan 20 and were all 2 TD performances outside of Bijan. There is 30 point upside here if Algiers doesn’t pilfer the TDs.
Game Environment:
ATL is going to be running the ball and utilizing their RBs out of the backfield a lot. I expect CAR to focus more of their attention to stopping them, but everyone knows what ATL is trying to do and they still excel in the running game.
CAR will instead attempt to keep everything in front of them and limit scoring. They have been very successful with this, but their offense continues to struggle. It would be a surprise if Bryce Young all of a sudden got better.
My Plays:
I expect Bijan to be chalky and for good reason. I do not think you have to play him, but he has a great chance for 20+. He is the only RB getting touches inside the 10 in the last 4 weeks.
This is going to be a very lopsided game. I saw a stat about DVOA which had this 49ers team ranked as one of the top 10 teams of all time. Expect more of the same from this SF team. The only question is who to roster from SF and whether to stack them up.
Tourney Winning Plays:
Deebo, Aiyuk, CMC and Kittle. One or two of these guys is going to put up a separator score in this spot. By now, everyone knows this.
Game Environment:
ARI is coming off a bye week where they were likely busy putting in some new wrinkles. We know they will be passing the ball plenty to try to keep up, but the efficiency is going to be low vs. this really good D.
SF will put up points through their main contributors. They have plenty of big plays that result in TDs, so its really a factor of who hits for the big plays. Otherwise CMC, Samuel should get the looks inside the 10 and they will have plenty of opportunity for TD scoring.
My Plays:
I want to roster CMC and Deebo first and foremost. I also want Aiyuk and Kittle in case it is their week.
My bring back is Trey McBride and possibly Dortch (but he’s 4.1k!!?) – McBride has been getting all of the important looks and they draw up plays for him. He’s also quite good.
Recognizing Bias:
I am automatically giving SF 30 points. What if this second game of the year plus a bye week have helped ARI scheme for this game and treat it as their Superbowl? Could ARI shut them down in this spot (or outscore them!)
This seems to be a great spot for HOU. They excel in the passing game and can defend the run well, taking away what TEN likes to do.
TEN has long been a defense that stuffs the run and tries to game plan for the specific opponent to limit the passing game. They had some success with a limited MIA team who was more inclined to run the ball on Monday night after Hill went down. They may have success vs. HOU, but I doubt HOU shies away from the pass game.
If Stroud can play, this HOU passing game should have plenty of opportunities and without Dell, their volume will be condensed amongst a few players, one of who has a good likelihood of hitting for a big score.
Tourney Winning Plays:
Noah Brown or Nico Collins will likely see a spike in usage in this spot. HOU is a dynamic passing team and when one of their WRs is out, the others see increased opportunity.
I have been surprised to see how few yards the NYG D allows to opposing QBs. Only the star programs have gotten to 300+ vs. them. NO is going to struggle to get the pass game going, which is no surprise to anybody.
NO should be able to contain NYG or at least limit them. It is possible NYG is ascending behind deVito and they score early and often. I don’t think NYG success would really affect NO in this spot. They methodically move the ball and are just not that successful scoring the TDs.
This is not an exciting spot.
Tourney Winning Plays: none
Game Environment:
Unless this game turns into a 30-30 back and forth game, I do not want to touch it or the players from it. This is highly likely to be a spot where NO spreads out their limited success amongst too many players to matter. NYG is just not a good bet on a slate this large.
It turns 30-30 if the NYG are scoring on some big plays because, “Why not go for broke?” and NO is forced to chuck it downfield (maybe with Winston) peppering Olave with targets so you had to have him to win tourneys.
My Plays:
I will be avoiding this game, but would consider a lineup that focused on the NYG passing game with an Olave bring back.
MIA D has been getting better as the year has gone on until last week where MIA allowed 300+ yards for only the second time this season. I don’t think that happens against Wilson’s Jets. They just posted a ceiling game for passing last week.
NYJ have a solid D that can stop MIA, but they still may not. MIA of course is a tough team to contain and they can score in multiple ways in this spot, even against one of the top passing Ds.
Maybe the MIA RBs go off and the NYJs post a capable effort and bring either Hall or G. Wilson with them.
Tourney Winning Players:
G. Wilson will probably get 10+ targets at a very fair price, 5.8k. That is kind of hard to pass up, but he still has peaked at 23 DK points this year.
Game Environment:
NYJ are going to trying very hard to slow down the MIA passing game – they held HOU to 54 last week and NYG to -9 this year. With an injured Hill or no Hill, they can coax MIA to use the RBs more. This will not lead to as explosive a game as one where MIA is passing, but its still valuable.
MIA can score quickly and if they do, NYJ will be forced to pass the ball more. If MIA struggles to score, NYJ will probably have mistakes that limit the offense’s potential. If NYJ is forced to pass, we can be assured that Garret Wilson will get enough volume to be a really nice piece.
TB is a inconsistent team defensively. They have allowed big games to WRs and RBs alike (London, Hubbard, Pittman, Aiyuk, HOU (all), BUF (all)) in the last 7 games. It is very likely that a GB WR has a big game here (Watson or Dobbs?)
One of Rachaad White or Mike Evans is a good bet to produce a good-great score, but they are both expensive. TB doesn’t really have any other threats for a big game.
It does seem difficult to pass against GB. They have held 9/13 teams under 200 yards passing and only one over 300 yards. I imagine Rachaad White will be more likely to post the 20+ point score this week, but that’s not enough at his price.
Tourney Winning Scores:
Rachaad White is going to get elite volume in a great run matchup. His price is high and at 7k he really needs 25+ points which is his ceiling so far this year. He needs two TDs and a great game to go over 30 DK points.
Game Environment:
Both teams have been pretty inconsistent and held back by it. Jordan Love is susceptible to blitzing Ds, and I don’t know what TB D will do, but that is a known weakness so they will look to exploit it.
That being said, one GB WR will likely excel in this spot. It has happened so often so I want to play a good amount of the GB WRs.
I think GB will be able to contain Baker Mayfield and the TB rushing game, which is not well ranked. TB will be able to contain the GB rushing game – I mean AJ Dillon hasn’t done anything spectacular and barring a large shift in offensive play calling, this game seems to stay close to its Vegas lines.
GB has been playing well of late, especially behind Jordan Love (24, 27, 24 in last 3). NYG, however, have only allowed big passing games (over 229) to DAL, MIA, and SF so I don’t expect Love will have that type of game this week, especially with Christian Watson unavailable.
NYG will be trying to lead with their D and Saquon Barkley. The net offensive numbers for both teams via #TheWorkbook show a lower expected efficiency in the pass game and in terms of drive success. I foresee two teams who will realize they do not need to score a ton of points to win this one.
Tourney Winning Plays:
Saquon Barkley should get a significant amount of touches relative to the game environment and is the focal point of their offense. He is in play however his price is also the highest RB cost on the 2 game slate and he should not see significantly more workload than Dillon.
AJ Dillon is no where near as good as Saquon, but he will see a similar volume of work as the lead back.
Game Environment:
This will likely be a very low scoring game with a reduced number of plays than we see on average. Games in NYG stadium often are lower scoring, but that’s expected in this year’s NFL.
NYG has a defense that can be blitz heavy when necessary, and Jordan Love has struggled a lot with blitzing. Expect NYG D to amp up the blitzes and if they work, Jordan Love will struggle. Either way, I expect NYG to be able to bottle up the passing game a good bit making GB WRs less attractive than other teams on this slate.
If GB is not moving the ball via the pass very well, they can rely on Aj Dillon and some other schemed runs to move the ball so players like Jayden Reed may hold more value.
Ultimately, GB should be able to contain the NYG pass game and make it very difficult for them to score, thereby keeping GB more conservative so that they do not turn the ball over when NYG brings pressure.
It is hard to see this game being played too far to the extremes of its Vegas total.
My Plays:
I do like AJ Dillon as a cheap RB who may go under owned, but who is a solid home favorite with no other RB to split.
I want to roster Saquon, but his price may be prohibitive as he needs to score a TD or 2 in a game that will likely be low scoring.
WRs I like in this game: Jayden Reed because he should get the shorter looks and may be used in the run game. Dontayvion Wicks is a nice punt option because he is efficient with his catches. I think people are more likley to get things wrong when rostering NYG players and none stand out has having the potential to produce “had to have it” scores.
Recognizing Bias: I am always biased against games in NYG thinking they will be low scoring, but look at the history yourself and you will see why.
MIA has not really faced many good run Ds this year. They faced PHI at a time when they were stuffing the run and NE twice. They had a lopsided loss to PHI (scored 17) and only scored 24 and 31 points vs. NE. TEN should be worried about the passing game of MIA, but there is at least some hope that they can stay in striking distance in this game by stuffing the run.
TEN will like to feed Derrick Henry the ball, but no team other than their first opponent, LAC, has been able to ride the rushing game vs. this team. Every team has had to tilt pass heavy to keep up or has used the passing game to get out ahead early and force MIA to be one dimensional. Not many people, including me, think TEN can ride Derrick Henry to victory here.
It is interesting to see how TEN ran the ball effectively vs. IND, limited their scoring and was able to maintain their run game throughout the game. This is probably their best chance to pull off the upset or keep the game close.
Tournament Winning Plays:
MIA passing game pieces (Hill, Waddle, Tua) will be highly owned and are in great spots. If MIA succeeds, its because they scored early by way of the pass and then turned to the run or just kept passing the whole game.
Game Environment:
The most likely script is so easy to understand that it will be so heavily owned and seemingly impossible to profit from. That script involves MIA excelling in the pass game and forcing TEN to pass in order to come back. MIA D will be looking to capitalize on a one-dimensional offense with Will Levis at QB.
Angle #1: TENs run stuffing D and some big plays allow them to ride the run game into the second half. MIA stalls out on a few drives and settles for FGs. MIA will still be accumulating yards and receptions for Hill/Waddle, but they may struggle to score. TEN can manage their drives well and keep a very balanced attack that only necessitates short 3rd down conversions.
MIA may still win and come close to the Vegas total, but this angle would allow TEN to keep running the ball and if Derrick Henry gets 100 yards and 1 TD he will likely be a top scoring RB on the two game slate.
Angle #2: MIA has a ton of success throwing the ball and forgets about the run game completely, making Tua double stacks a must in order to win tournaments. Without the run plays, Tua is able to find another WR to elevate into tourney winning lineups. TEN is not able to keep up, but DeAndre Hopkins gets 10+ targets, putting him in play depending on the efficiency and scoring.
My Plays:
I will be playing a lot of Hill and Waddle on the two game slate. I will play them together with Tua (and possibly without), and I will play Hill on his own. In 3-max and SE I don’t think I will fade Tyreke for any other reason than its the easiest way to differentiate my lineup, but I will fade Waddle in lineups where I don’t play Tua.
I will play Derrick Henry on lineups that plan for Angle #1. I will likely play him with the TEN D, knowing the D needs to come up with big plays to keep Henry in the game.
I will be playing Okonkwo, but so will everyone else because TE is absurdly weak on this 2 gamer.
Recognizing Bias:
My bias here is with regards to the running game. I do not want to roster a split backfield against the top run D, but MIA has shown they are creative in play calling which could lead to them having success, especially if TEN is not scoring points.
I don’t remember totals this low and it’s definitely out of my comfort zone to analyze a game so unique, but when I encounter a difficult or unknown problem, my engineering background always calls me to start by identifying what I know.
I know that the average NFL game for PIT has between 56-68 plays. I know that for NE it’s between 51-68, but 62-68 in the last 4 games with very low game totals. When paired together it’s a zero sum game meaning if one team is running more plays, the other team will have less plays.
I know that PIT will run about 30-35 times (26-36 in the last 5 games) and throw the ball 25-30 times.
This information is helpful in conceiving how individual players can score points based on targets and touches.
PIT has had 10 drives in 3 of last 4 games and 13 drives in one. NE has 10, 11, 12 drive in their last 3. Both PIT and NE have more opportunities in the first half consistently vs. the second half.
Both teams have low Drive Success Rates, 65% or so. Because they are not likely to hit for big plays and will need to drive the length of the field there is a low probability of TDs being scored, but that’s accounted for in the Vegas total. Stringing together 4 good sets of downs that could put a team into field goal territory (if they start on their own 25) is something like a 17% chance so out of 10 drives that start from their own 25, 2 may result in a field goal and the likelihood of a TD being scored is not too good either.
Because each possession will be so valuable I would not expect either team to take on much risk when moving the ball unless they are down more than one score.
That is a lot of information and not even the best DFS players will be able to take this info and construct winning lineups tonight, so let’s exploit that edge.
Building Lineups:
The RBs are the likeliest players to score and their ceiling value takes on a lot more meaning in a spot like this. I will want to include at least one RB (Harris, Warren, Zeke) on every roster.
PIT WRs have a narrow distribution of touches, so Johnson, Pickens, Freiermuth, and Robinson should split 20-25 targets, which could mean about 5 each. The shorter area target hogs like Johnson and Freiermuth should provide a good floor in a low scoring matchup. Pickens has more upside on his fewer targets, but PIT also may not want to push the ball down the field, lowering Pickens’ floor.
The QBs do not have rushing upside (maybe a couple points per game) and will likely only meet value if they throw a TD pass. You have to pair QBs with the WR/TE they connect with in the end zone (if they do at all) so mix and match with the QBs or avoid them all together.
Trubisky has scored between 10-15 DK points when he has started games with PIT. Zappe scored 22 points last year with a similar cast of characters when facing CLE. I am gonna suggest Zappe has the upside (but lower floor) and you will have to weigh cost-benefit when rostering Trubisky vs similar point per dollar options.
Stick with CPTs who you think can score TDs; the RBs, QBs, and big play WRs.
And if you do choose to make a roster tonight, don’t return to twitter to bad mouth the game, we can still win this showdown tonight as long as we outwit our competition and get a little lucky.
SF does not rush their offensive plays and neither does PHI, so this game can easily finish with a low total of plays, but those plays are more likely than many other spots to be explosive and chew up a lot of yards. If each team can convert their drives into TDs, we should see a lot of yardage and a lot of points.
Both offenses have had a lot of success this year and have been dynamic through the air and on the ground. While one team may jump out to a lead, no lead is safe in this game. It’s the kind of spot that can easily erupt into a shootout.
Tournament Winning Plays:
SF is a different sort of team as a large number of DFS points are split largely between 4 players. One of them will post a viable score every week. In this spot the pass catchers stand out, so Aiyuk, Deebo and Kittle are all tourney winning plays.
Game Environment:
PHI is one of the easiest Ds in the league to figure out for DFS. They are solid, but push teams to the air for a number of reasons 1) opposing teams always need to score points vs. PHI 2) they have a great run D. SF also pushes teams to throw for similar reasons, but for SF the pass rush is daunting leading teams to look for shorter passes.
We always say confidently that SF will find a way to put up points. They don’t run a ton of plays because they take their time on offense and are often in the lead, but they are very efficient and explosive. It’s likely they succeed here and even keep their foot on the pedal if leading.
PHI can move the ball in multiple ways and especially if Hurts starts scrambling and getting involved in the red zone. SF D has been playing well, but PHI is one of the best all around offenses that exists in the NFL and they will put up points to challenge or at least pressure SF.
My Plays:
I will be rostering some Brock Purdy led stacks. CMC did not score a TD on the ground vs. TB and JAX, two other good rush Ds. I find it highly likely that Purdy (or a Deebo run) are needed to score in this spot.
I will be stacking Purdy with Aiyuk and Kittle and Deebo, in no particular order. PHI has been shutting down some pretty good TEs, but Kittle has a high enough ceiling at TE that he can post a separator score in any matchup.
I don’t think CMC is a good one off play, but if this game truly shoots out to where defenses are getting worn down, CMC gets enough volume that he can post the score you had to have. I’m not sure if he should be played as a bring back in Hurts led rosters or alongside Purdy and one other pass catcher…
Recognizing Bias:
Our eyes get big when thinking of all the success OWS had last week vs. this Eagles team. Try to reign in that excitement and realize that this game could still be lower scoring or one sided in many of the possible game outcomes.
49ers at Chiefs, Super Bowl
Initial Thoughts:
SF has consistently demonstrated the ability to score 27+ points in games with Deebo Samuel playing. BAL was the one team that was able to stop them. KC has a pretty good D, but not of the same caliber as BAL.
KC has not allowed more than 27 points all season with only 4 teams scoring over 20.
Mahomes has such a low depth of target and depends on his players to create after the catch, very similar to Purdy who at least has some deep threats he can rely on.
Both teams have extremely condensed target trees. It is easy to identify the 6 players who will receive the most targets/touches; CMC, Pacheco, Deebo, Aiyuk, Rice, Kelce (and sometimes Kittle).
Tourney Winning Plays:
SF continues to provide at least one (often only one) score over 27 DK points per game. The most consistent player to reach that threshold is CMC, then Deebo, then Aiyuk. I am sure one of those three will serve as a good (if not great) CPT option in this game.
In games which they have won (lets look at the last 4) one and only one of Rice, Kelce, Pacheco has scored 24+ DK points. We should count on one of them producing.
Game Environment:
KC is dependent upon Mahomes slowly moving the ball down the field with his accuracy, scrambling ability and amazing poise under pressure. Until late in the season they had been having issues in the red zone, but not recently. I trust this recent success given the talent they have on the field and amongst the coaching staff.
SF is reliant on CMC to move the chains and set up big play opportunities. SF can often produce explosive plays and KCs D will be challenged to stop those as only BAL really has.
Perhaps KCs best bet is to force Purdy into turnovers, which is entirely possible but also unpredictable. More turnovers from SF will give Mahomes more chances to control the clock. SF will find success and score at some point, but more possessions could put KC above their scoring average, likely what KC needs to win this game.
My Plays:
While CMC, Deebo and Aiyuk are appropriately priced, Kelce is obviously priced for his recent success and the obvious narratives surrounding him. It seems as likely that Rice or Pacheco has the best game for KC. I will be rostering those two more than Kelce.
Mahomes and Purdy are very interesting pieces. KC has been limiting opponent’s points and thereby limiting his own ceiling. He rarely passes for over 300 yards and rarely produces big DK scores. KC is far more susceptible to the run and CMC can steal plenty of DK points from Purdy, making both QBs floor pieces in a lower scoring game that Vegas projects.
Mahomes and Purdy both become highly sought after and necessary in a game script where KC is gaining extra possessions off of turnovers and Purdy is forced to pass more to outscore KC. You can play either one for the floor, but when playing both together, recognize that you are hoping for a shootout.
You are most likely going to be rostering two players under the 6k price and there are numerous possibilities. None of these pieces are likely to score over 10 points and many will end up ruining your rosters. It wouldn’t be a bad decision to roster a $200 player and try to fit in Kittle at 6.4k. Hitting on 2 of the low probability plays is unlikely unless you are playing an MME contest.
I will experiment with cheap players or Kickers or Defense in the CPT spot in game scripts that predict a lower scoring game. The KC D has been awfully good all year.
Lions at 49ers, Championship
Initial Thoughts:
SF is pretty good at getting close to 30 points in a game. They scored 27+ in 12/13 games with Deebo playing and 30+ in 10/13. The only game they failed offensively was vs. BAL.
One of the SF top 3 is going to eclipse 27 DK points whether it be CMC, Deebo, or Aiyuk. Kittle is a solid play when Deebo is out and sometimes he can make big plays that up his fantasy production, but his ceiling with Deebo playing is not elite.
DET splits production amongst 5 players; ARSB, both RBs, and LaPorta with lower priced WRs sometimes putting up a decent score.
Targeting the fantasy production smartly in this game is not a mystery that needs solving.
Tourney Winning Plays:
Deebo > Aiyuk > CMC based on price, matchup and ownership.
ARSB > Gibbs > Monty > LaPorta based on matchup. I don’t care about ownership or price when DET is concerned.
Game Environment:
Chiefs at Ravens, Championship
Initial Thoughts:
It has become pretty clear how each team will try to win at this point and what players can be expected to score fantasy points. Finding the right combo that is low owned is going to be the trick.
For KC, it’s Pacheco or Rice who we should expect to score points and as many assumed, Kelce is of course back. That is pretty much all you have to consider from KC.
BAL is one of those teams where the TDs could flow to any of a number of players. If BAL is pressured to score and get aggressive (the playoffs often give you that urgency) Lamar is surely going to be scoring points at a high rate.
Tourney Winning Plays:
Lamar Jackson has the highest likelihood of scoring the most points in this game because he will be running plenty with KC being so good at defending the pass.
Isaiah Pacheco should get a closer to 20+ touches if KC gets more plays, something that will likely depend on game environment and script. Pacheco will be a better play with a BAL offensive piece.
Rashee Rice will also get his fair share of looks with one of the most accurate and creative QBs in the league.
Kelce had his ceiling game vs. BUF. He can eclipse 20 points and be the highest scoring TE, but it’s no where near a lock.
Game Environment:
BAL is going to test KC with one of the best Ds in the league which is historically good. KCs offense can flow through a few players, but BAL should be able to stop them and at least make things difficult.
BAL has a good offense that really excels in the running game which includes Lamar Jackson scrambling as well. If they stick to their game plan, BAL should be able to consistently move the ball and score, forcing KC to get more aggressive downfield. The problem is that KC doesn’t really have the pieces for that.
KCs best shot is to force a defensive game and generate some turnovers to give them more opportunities vs. this very difficult BAL D.
My Plays:
I do not want any pieces from KC. Pacheco and Rice are the only KC players over the course of the season who have been putting up “had to have it” scores and they are each 40% owned on this slate.
I do want to roster all of the combinations of pieces form BAL that I can fit in. Lamar isn’t even necessary if I expect a lower scoring game in this spot.
I like Gus Edwards, Nelson Agholor, Mark Andrews, OBJ, and BAL D.
Chiefs at Bills, Divisional
Initial Thoughts:
It is hard to think of this game as something other than a slugfest that stays low to modestly scoring. However, a very low owned game stack that plays off of a high scoring affair could be profitable.
BUF has not had a viable tourney scoring player outside of Josh Allen and James Cook. One or the other should do well in this spot.
KC has had tourney viable scores from Rashee Rice and Isaiah Pacheco. Those two are most likely to contribute in this spot.
Tourney Winning Plays:
Josh Allen is going to lead the team in every way possible. He has the best chance to produce the highest raw score in the game.
Isaiah Pacheco will get 20 + touches and likely more. He is going to be needed as BUF won’t want to allow Mahomes to beat them, even though KC doesn’t throw the ball very deep anymore.
Rashee Rice will get the majority of passing work for KC and he is playing with the top QB in the game. He is underpriced for this slate.
Game Environment:
Both teams have the components to run and pass the ball and they are evenly matched. Turnovers will likely affect this game and the teams were tied on giveaways per game this year.
This is an evenly matched game with a wide range of outcomes that most of people will not bet on to shootout.
My Plays:
If this game is going to be low owned I will want to stack it up. My ideal stack would include Josh Allen, Isaiah Pacheco and Rashee Rice with any cheap options thrown in with it. If its very low owned I could see myself playing a 20 max with these three players and mixing and matching everything else.
I will throw any of those three players into any lineup: Josh Allen, Rashee Rice, Isaiah Pacheco. I would even put James Cook in lineups that do not have Allen.
Bucs at Lions, Divisional
Initial Thoughts:
DET is a somewhat easy team to diagnose for fantasy scoring. If they have a decent scoring game, which is likely in this spot, the DFS points will be spread out between about 5 players, with none likely to hit for a 30 pointer, but a few likely to finish scoring between 20-30.
TB should be able to score points in this spot against a DET secondary that has been giving up big stat lines all year long. Mike Evans has been the only TB player who consistently puts up separator scores.
What type of game will this be? DET is dynamic on offense and can run or pass. Jared Goff should be able to exploit the holes in the zone and push the ball down the field.
TB will struggle to run the ball as they have most of the year, but will find ways to make big plays against this DET secondary.
This game has the greatest chance to turn into a shootout with the amount of passing both teams should be expected to do.
Tourney Winning Plays:
Mike Evans on TB should see the highest number of targets and he has had multiple games this year where he has produced ceiling scores.
ARSB is the most likely to command a big portion of the offensive targets in this spot and with PPR scoring, his points should add up quickly.
Game Environment:
TB found a way to run the ball 29 times vs. PHI and still pick up 300 yards passing. Short runs and long passes. That same recipe may be in store for this game vs. DET who has a strong run D and beatable pass D.
DET has a balanced attack that is designed well from the beginning, but kind of one dimensional. They should find success, but it is of the short variety. They have to constantly drive the field and if their run game is working they can do that well. TB is decent vs. the run.
TB also limits scoring in the red zone and they finished third in the league at that stat. If TB is successful, they can continue to play their run balanced approach.
With all of the passing that is to be expected against two teams not great at defending the pass, there should be a lot of PPR scoring by wide receivers or TEs in this game. TD scoring would be a huge bonus for the game environment.
My Plays:
I like rostering the guys in this game who will eat up a lot of yards and receptions. I think of ARSB primarily (he is the highest scoring WR this week) who will highly likely get 10+ targets, especially if DET is passing a lot.
I like Mike Evans because of his ability to post 30 point games, primarily through TDs.
I will plan to roster Chris Godwin to a lesser degree. He could be the one soaking up 10 targets in a heavy passing game.
Stacks of DET are always in play, but they are pretty expensive if DET has any trouble scoring against this good red zone D. Because their scoring is so condensed, any pairing of 2-3 DET players out of Gibbs, Monty, ARSB, LaPorta or Goff could hit for 4-5x.
If playing a few DET players I would consider running Mayfield, White, Evans knowing they can put up 75 as a concentrated player block. I do not think they are very likely to.
Packers at 49ers, Divisional
Initial Thoughts:
It has been the same script all year with SF. In weeks 11-17 they had at least one player score more than 27 DK points and often only one. Play one person from SF.
If you stack SF, play Purdy with one other player (2 is possible but less likely) and count on a good chance at a top pairing.
GB is much more difficult to predict. They have flourished with an improved run game and limited attempts from Love. The SF D is the weaker part of the D to attack.
IF the GB O line can protect and give Love time, there is no reason to think GB can’t keep up using the run to set up the pass.
If SF can break away on the scoreboard early, they can force Love to throw more than GB would like and result in some negative plays or stalled drives.
Tourney Winning Plays:
For SF it’s McCaffrey, Deebo, Aiyuk, Purdy, Kittle. They can all win you a tourney if you pick the right one.
Game Environment:
GB will look to set up the Aaron Jones run game, but will surely pass off of their success with that. A lot depends upon the success of the run. GB has been able to run on CHI and also DAL. They should have some success here.
SF will run their really well schemed offense to create big plays to big playmakers. It’s really hard to stop unless you can create turnovers. SF D will give GB a hard time and keep the chances coming on offense.
This is a good game for points to be scored if the teams can get TDs. Both teams are a bit slow, so I would stick to playing a limited number form this game.
My Plays:
I will be rostering at least one player from SF on every roster. They have been too consistent at producing 27+ point players to not take advantage. I like them Deebo > Aiyuk > CMC > Kittle based on price, ownership, and ability to hit that threshold.
I will consider pairing Brock Purdy with any of Deebo, Aiyuk or CMC.
I will consider playing Kittle with CMC.
GB had not had any player score above 23 DK points until last weekend when Aaron Jones and Romeo Doubs did it. I do not think I will be playing any GB players vs. this SF team.
Texans at Ravens, Divisional
Initial Thoughts:
BAL has a historically good pass D facing off against a remarkable rookie QB in CJ Stroud who wins with big, explosive plays.
HOU has been very good at defending the run, but Lamar brings a different dynamic to the run game and will allow BAL opportunities to extend drives when their running game puts them in difficult 2nd or 3rd down distances.
BAL should do fine in the passing game if it is needed and Lamar has been good enough when needed. He puts up big points seemingly in high scoring games. He’s kinda like Josh Allen, but with a better defense.
Tourney Winning Plays:
Besides Lamar, only Gus Johnson, Zay Flowers and Justice Hill have scored more than 20 DK points (this changes with Mark Andrews likely back)
Nico Collins will be in HOU and BALs game plans, however he should easily get the most targets on a HOU team that will need to find big plays somewhere.
Game Environment:
BAL will likely push the pace of the game only if they feel the need to, which means a good defensive game by BAL will likely lead to an underwhelming game for DFS. Still, this is the playoffs and BAL may want to flex a bit?
HOU will always be scheming the big plays, but this may be a spot they lean run heavy for as long as they can. They have lost many pass catchers and are left with a skeleton crew going up against one of the best historically.
So, this game will hinge on the success of the mediocre run offense of Houston or an explosive play team against a great defense.
The good thing is that if Houston is hitting in a meaningful way, BAL will likely be hitting in a Lamar kind of way at least.
BALs defense will be in play against a QB who likes to throw and should be leaned on if the run game doesn’t meet the need.
My Plays:
I think Devin Singletary will get a ton of usage in this game and he is cheap enough on the main slate to help even if he approaches 20 points.
I would stack this game primarily with Lamar/Zay and maybe Justice Hill, figuring BAL will choose the path of least resistance in the pass game.
Niko Collins is good enough and will get a lot of targets guaranteed if BAL does good that I would include him as a bring back in BAL stacks.
Eagles at Buccaneers, Wild Card
Initial Thoughts:
Since their bye, PHI has had a tough time and no good scoring games outside of Jalen Hurts and Devonta Smith a couple times. This TB team has been tough to score on all year and is playing at home.
TB is best played as one offs as they have only had a single person over 20 (usually Mike Evans) in any week outside of week 15 when they spiked to have 3 between 22 and 33.
This game is most likely to be a low scoring game with long drives and a few big plays that put the teams into scoring position. PHI has been much worse in the red zone and Mike Evans will surely be given his chances in the end zone to bring down a TD or two.
PHIs run D should survive in this spot because TB is not great in the run game. They will stick with it as they are usually close in score throughout the game and can afford to take time to gain 3 yards here and there.
However, it is very possible TB builds an early lead through TDs to their WRs and PHI is forced to become more aggressive in an attempt to come back. This may mean more running for Jalen Hurts which would be a nice Monday night hammer in full weekend slates.
Tourney Winning Plays:
Rachaad White has a very viable floor as he has had all season. He sees some of the best workload on the slate, but his team’s offenisve inefficiency often keeps him short of ceiling performance.
Mike Evans will see a healthy number of targets and is the primary TD threat for TB. He barely makes this list because his workload is on the fringes of the best WR plays, but his TD equity and big play ability and concentration as a part of this offense keep him here.
Game Environment:
Rams at Lions, Wild Card
Initial Thoughts:
This is going to be a highly owned game stack in the Sunday Slate contests. Know that DET has a lot of good games between 20-30 DK points for 5 different players – Goff, ARSB, both RBs, LaPorta (TE).
LAR post plenty of good scores because they have a concentrated offense and they are very good.
This game looks like more of a shootout than any other spot and a highly concentrated group of players to choose from and likely profit from. You only need to get one thing right to get the highest upside plays on the slate hitting together.
Tourney Winning Plays:
Kyren Williams, Puka Nakua, Cooper Kupp, ARSB, Gibbs, LaPorta (TE), Monty, Goff, Stafford (in that order)
Game Environment:
Packers at Cowboys, Wild Card
Initial Thoughts:
The Packers have not produced a 30 point fantasy game all year, but week 17 and 18 have produced tourney winning stacks all including Jordan Love.
CeeDee Lamb has seven games above the best GB DK score all year (28.3) often paired with Dak who had 5.
BUF was able to surprise DAL with the run and DET is a great running team, but no one else (maybe SF, ARI) have been able to run on DAL. I don’t think Aaron Jones is a great play this week. He could produce a fine score by volume, but DAL is still a great D and playing at home.
Steelers at Bills, Wild Card
Initial Thoughts:
Maybe BUF was planning ahead for the cold weather playoff games when they decided to start throwing the ball less and involve their RBs and the legs of Josh Allen more? This BUF team is well equipped to drive the ball the length of the field and has multiple weapons inside the red zone.
When the rubber meets the road, Josh Allen is cutting into James Cook’s RB chances. James Cook should only be played in games that project a very comfortable win. This is that game according to Vegas – BUF has already blown out DAL, NYJ, MIA at home and WAS, on the road.
James Cook and Josh Allen have generally hit ceiling games frequently, but not on the same week. Josh Allen – 12, 16, 18…Cook – 14, 15.
PIT leans hard into the run and tries to get the ball in the hands of George Pickens when they need to. Mason Rudolph has been good, but he is also on the edge of negative plays often. He ended the year with 3 wins, but the competition was pretty weak.
PIT could compete with their pressure defense, but TJ Watt is out. PIT could compete with big plays to Pickens, but the weather significantly reduces that likelihood. Maybe PIT grabs a few turnovers and BUF gets called for a bunch of penalties, not really favorable circumstances for DFS.
Tourney Winning Plays:
Josh Allen has the highest upside of any QB on the slate because of what he does with his legs and arm. He is such a unique player because of his ability to scramble and find open receivers and his willingness to become a dominant runner.
Game Environment:
Dolphins at Chiefs, Wild Card
Initial Thoughts:
KC has scored over 30 points 3 times this year (41, 31, 31). MIA has shown through injury and an improved defense, that outscoring opponents is not the only way they can win.
With all of MIAs core 4 having injury tags and facing a very good defense at KC, it is probable that this game plays to its Vegas total (or lower) which would likely lead to disappointing DFS scores with all of the core offensive pieces being priced up. This is for KC and MIA.
Since Week 11 (after the bye) the only KC players to score over 21 DK points were Rice (24, 27) and Pacheco (24, 26, 33). Stacking only those two players from this game would be very uncommon.
Tourney Winning Players:
Isaiah Pacheco will see over 20 touches in this game and he is heavily counted upon inside the 10. He has a great floor and pretty high ceiling as well.
Rashee Rice sees a bunch of targets (8+) from the best QB and has a large red zone role as well. He is also cheaper than other WRs with similar workloads, but he doesn’t have their same ceiling, likely the KC game script holding him back.
Tyreke Hill – need I say more.
Game Environment:
Browns at Texans, Wild Card
Initial Thoughts:
This sets up as a game with a lot of passing plays. HOU defends the run well and CLE has leaned into the pass with Flacco. CLE defends everything well and HOU has CJ Stroud and Co.
Most likely, CLE is able to build a lead and can defend HOU well enough to hold onto a win, but there are a lot of volatile pieces in this game. Flacco can be turnover prone. Stroud can be miraculous. This game has the potential to shoot out due to turnovers and/or stunning big plays.
CLE and HOU have shown tendencies (at times) to rely heavily on the run game. DFS players and fans would likely hate this game script, but it’s not out of the realm of possibility.
Tourney Winning Plays:
Amari Cooper should see 8+ targets and it is pretty likely he goes for even more than that. He is priced less than other players who have similar target projections, however his QB is still working off a small sample size.
David Njoku has a similar target opportunity, great YAC ability, and plays a position where his ceiling really outshines the rest.
Game Environment:
Bills at Dolphins, Week 18
Initial Thoughts:
BUF is attempting to win games with defense, ball control and the rushing game spearheaded by Josh Allen inside the red zone. Every game is different, with BUF responding to what the defense is giving them, but BUF is far less likely to simply let Josh sling it to his favorite play makers.
MIA is in the playoffs, so they may rest some of their serious injury cases. This is also a must win game for them, but getting Mostert and Waddle back for the playoffs are also big priorities.
This game depends a lot on if MIA is healthy and able to put some pressure on BUF to score points and keep up with the big play ability of MIA.
BUF is perfectly content to find shorter routes to pass to and continue feeding James Cook, but when the game is on the line, expect Josh Allen to take over by looking for big plays deep, extending plays with his scrambling, and taking off running when needed.
Tourney Winning Plays:
Josh Allen is going to be a strong play in any format and likely a must play in Showdowns. I will not play a roster without Josh Allen.
Game Environment:
If MIA is healthy, their skill position players will make this game higher scoring than it would be without them. As such, we can expect BUF to have to pass more than they might want to, leading to questions about who to pair with Josh Allen.
Any of the “core four” MIA skill players could be viable in this game and it’s likely, while one will stand out, several will be useful in creating winning lineups.
BUF will still depend largely on Josh Allen and one other player as a means of exploiting this MIA D. when they find something that works, they look to exploit that area. It could be Cook, Davis, Diggs or Kincaid.
Building Lineups:
** Waddle and Mostert not expected to play @TomPelissero
I will be looking to play Josh Allen and Achane in all my lineups. They are going to be so integral to their teams in this spot and have a high degree of skill/talent. I will run Allen with Cook on a lot of lineups, seeing as how this has a comparably high ceiling as any partner and happens more often.
I like the idea of defense playing a big part in this game so I like both Ds. BUF has been pretty conservative and/or ineffective on offense and MIA is pretty limited playing a good D. I figure that is the direction this game goes.
Tyreke Hill is a great play and highly likely to make an optimal lineup, but I could see him struggling in this spot with so much attention and his price being so high.
BUF K has been one of the higher scorers on his team and works well in these low total builds.
If I were to branch out, I would CPT Hill and play for a hot MIA to push BUF to pass and bringing Gabe Davis into play.
with one other BUF piece, while trying to include as many MIA pieces as I can out of Achane, Hill, he is not necessary by any stretch.
Cowboys at Commanders, Week 18
Initial Thoughts:
DALs fantasy production has been CeeDee and Dak as the only stand out performers ever since they have abandoned the run and went pass heavy.
The only plays worth rostering are CeeDee and Dak (best played together or Lamb as a one off) and perhaps the DAL D although they only have 1 sack in each of the last 5 games as teams have started to go run heavy against them.
This spot looks great on paper, but the plays worth rostering (Lamb, DAL D, Dak) are also the most expensive players at their respective positions. DAL needs to be much better in the red zone against a team playing pretty good red zone D.
Tourney Winning Plays:
CeeDee Lamb is the top raw projected player on the slate. DAL has everything to play for and should be featuring Lamb and WAS has not been good vs. the pass. WAS has been playing a more conservative D that could limit the whole offense a bit better than the last time they faced off.
Game Environment:
This game environment will depend on DALs success in the red zone early and/or WASs ability to control their possessions and not turn the ball over.
It is possible DAL has more success in the red zone and is able to convert more than 44% of the trips into TDs, thereby requiring Sam Howell to get more aggressive. That is where he is likely to make some mistakes and give the ball back to DAL with good field position.
WAS is not a good rushing team, so they will not be able to slow down DAL by running on them. DAL will get plenty of opportunities to move the ball and score. DAL will also likely get more chances to rush the passer and come up with turnovers or negative plays.
It is hard to see WAS succeeding in this spot. This looks very much like a DAL blowout. The only question is whether Lamb is worth it in a blow out win.
My Plays:
I am hoping I can afford Lamb on a fair number of rosters. He should see a good amount of work and DAL will not let up until they know they have their division locked up.
Lamb can be matched with Dak and you might as well thrown in a Cooks or Ferguson as bonus pieces, knowing that is this is a high scoring affair, its likely two pass catchers (even three) and going to be brought along.
Recognizing Bias:
Just because a game looks easy to win, it doesn’t mean it is. WAS could hang close here if DAL is getting run on. Fading DAL pieces would benefit a WAS rusher.
Rams at 49ers, Week 18
Initial Thoughts:
I have no idea what scheme Sam Darnold will be asked to run and with what weapons, but they will want to make sure he is well prepared ahead of the playoffs; I mean look what happened to them when they lost Purdy lat year.
LAR are less attractive, especially playing against a likely decent SF D and with Carson Wentz at the helm.
I will be interested to roster a piece or two of the playmakers in this SF offense. They should still be aiming for the big plays and if Darnold can simply get the ball to a playmaker in space, they can go off for some big plays. LAR struggle to pressure the passer and even less so without Donald.
Tourney Winning Plays: none
Game Environment:
LAR likely does not have a chance in the playoffs if Kyren Williams or Matt Stafford do not play, so I don’t think any of their system with Carson Wentz really matters towards the playoffs. LAR are also still facing an elite SF pass D.
SF on the other hand, does still have a chance to have a QB like Darnold step in a facilitate this offense and keep advancing. They should give him plenty of chances to connect with playmakers in space and see what he can do in preparation for a possible role in the playoffs.
SF will not have CMC to lean on so expect a number of other players to see increased volume and big play potential.
My Plays:
Depending on who is in for SF (Deebo, Aiyuk, Kittle OR Mitchell/Mason or R Bell) someone is likely to have some shots at big plays. I will be looking to put one of these cheap pieces into a roster or three.
Recognizing Bias:
Everything I said about SF is pure conjecture on my part, but it is how I am analyzing this situation that is totally uncertain.
Eagles at Giants, Week 18
Initial Thoughts:
Rarely are there a ton of points scored in NYG home games. Last week (51 total) was one of the highest point totals since…the last time PHI came to town in 2022.
PHI needs to win and needs to get back on track and this is a great spot to do that. I have no idea what went wrong last week for PHI, but in looking at the year’s data, this is still a top offense vs. a bottom tier defense.
Tourney Winning Plays:
AJ Brown is still looking at 10+ targets in this game, especially with D Smith looking iffy with an ankle injury. He is also priced like the alpha WR he is.
Dallas Goedert will get a a large number of targets in this spot and at TE he stands out as a possible “had to have it” piece, especially if Smith is out.
Game Environment:
PHI is expected to find ways to move the ball on offense especially through their passing game. The running game should supplant the big plays Jalen Hurts can make to his star wideouts and other pieces.
NYG will want to run the ball and given recent success vs. PHI, they may be able to stay in the game using only Saquon Barkley’s legs. However, should PHI jump to a lead, they will have to rely on the average arm of Taylor. NYG is not as explosive as PHI, but can match them if the score stays around what Vegas is projecting.
If PHI can hit the big plays – can this finally happen for DeAndre Swift (or happen again for Brown) – they should put NYG in a position where they will need to get aggressive and pass. Taylor has the upside to post a good score at his price and cheap WRs/TEs to go with him.
My Plays:
I like DeAndre Swift considering NYG gives up more big plays to RBs and PHI is still trying to figure out how to energize their run game ahead of the playoffs.
I also like AJ Brown as one piece that can really put a slate out of reach and who will be heavily relied upon to make plays, especially if Smith is limited.
Recognizing Bias:
Is PHI just broken? Playing against a division rival and coming off some disappointing games, maybe PHI is just best left alone again. I am obviously overrating them based on their recent form and their lack of “had to have it” scores at their elevated prices.
Broncos at Raiders, Week 18
Initial Thoughts:
LV has been playing with a chip on their shoulder since the firing of their head coach and that should extend through the end of this game. LV will try to establish their strong running game and reliance on Davonte Adams in the passing game.
DEN showed their cards last week, and we should expect the same boring offense. They feature far too many pass catchers and a QB most people have never heard of against a solid D.
Tourney Winning Plays:
Whoever starts at RB for LV will be a solid play. DEN hasn’t really been as bad in terms of yardage allowed to RBs, but they still rank at the bottom DVOA vs. the run and LV is very committed to a lead RB. Jacobs or White (whoever starts) is a solid play.
Game Environment:
We can expect LV to take the path of least resistance vs. this DEN D and lean on the run. We can also, with high probability, expect LV to shut down the DEN offense, allowing LV to continue to lean on the run throughout the game. The only way they deviate from that is if DEN shows some offensive chops or is shutting down the run game.
DEN has a decent offense, but struggles especially when they get into scoring position. Behind Stidham I do not expect them to pose much of a threat to score. LV should find it easy enough to keep pace or stay well ahead of DEN. Therefore, LV will not really have to venture too far out of their comfort zone, the run game.
The way that Davonte Adams becomes playable at 7.9k is if LV struggles in the run game or DEN shows a decent offensive output.
My Plays:
I will be looking to roster Jacobs or White if Jacobs remains injured. The volume is really good for the price. Its not a must play, but a darn good one.
I will also be looking to take shots on Davante Adams in game scripts where the DEN D is taking away the run or forcing takeaways in general. He is a great upside play at his price, but he also could produce a total dud in games LV controls.
Recognizing Bias: none.
Chiefs at Chargers, Week 18
Initial Thoughts:
KC cannot improve their playoff position and is therefore resting their key starters including Mahomes. There are always a lot of cheap plays to pick through on KC and we have rarely hit with them, even with Mahomes behind center.
LAC shouldn’t give KCs first string defense any issue as they have no semblance of offensive playmakers with Stick at QB. I am not particularly interested in chasing any of the LAC skill position players.
Tourney Winning Plays: none
Game Environment:
This is a meaningless game for both teams, but not to the players on the field with something to prove. Still, players do not write game scripts and so the coaches who control such things will be looking to try many different pieces. This is not a spot to look for DFS goodness.
Still, with this game being played in LA, I would expect someone on LAC to have a notable game. You can spend time trying to guess who, or you could just look in other spots.
My Plays:
I will be considering Noah Gray as a very cheap TE who could see more work if Kielce is out.
Recognizing Bias:
I will admit that I have a bias when it comes to looking for plays in games that are meaningless. I know it is possible to find hidden gems, but I am not sure that I am the best person for that task. Still, taking chances in large field play is totally an acceptable strategy in spots like this.
Bears at Packers, Week 18
Initial Thoughts:
CHI does play pretty slow and GB never runs a ton of plays, so expecting a shootout with two fairly evenly matched teams is still a somewhat muted affair.
Still, both teams have been clicking on offense and if the Packers can keep CHI pressing to score points, this game could produce a few good DFS scores.
GB will not have the luxury of leaning on their running game and will need Jordan Love to withstand the pressure and connect with his many play makers.
CHI is going to focus on the run and set up big play opportunities for DJ Moore. Fields will mix in with his legs as well.
If Love can withstand the pressure and find his receivers, this game could produce on par with SEA/ARI.
Tourney Winning Plays:
DJ Moore has seen 9+ targets in similar game set ups and he has produced big time as his connection with Fields has solidified. He should be in store for a big game again in this spot if Fields is accurate with his throws and there is no reason to think he won’t be.
If Foreman sits again, Khalil Herbert will likely see his 20+ touches at a low price and in a good offense. He would stand out as a strong value RB.
Game Environment:
CHI is trying to close out the year on a high note and will follow their script of solid D, good run game with Fields a part of it, and big plays to DJ Moore. CHI has managed to contain rushers.
GB will first have to contain the CHI offense which plays better from in front, and then hope to consistently move the ball through shorter passing to backs and TEs. It seems they have excelled in games where they can runtime ball or hit big plays to WRs. This could be a challenging spot for GB.
CHI will be hoping that Fields can keep the turnovers and negative plays from derailing their offense and GB will be hoping that they can operate without getting much help from their RBs. I have more faith in the CHI offense in this spot.
My Plays:
DJ Moore is back on the radar as a big time playmaker and I will want to roster him for his high floor and ceiling at only 7k. GB has allowed a number of good scores to top WRs and Moore should be the #1 target for Fields, especially with Kmet somewhat hobbled recently.
Tyler Kraft is in a good spot for the GB passing game since CHI filters targets there and he only costs 3.7k.
Aaron Jones may not get there on the ground, but he has a great opportunity for upside through the air in this spot. CHI has given up a 2 TDs to RBs through the air, 2 to TEs and 3 to WRs in the last 5 weeks.
Recognizing Bias: none
Seahawks at Cardinals, Week 18
Initial Thoughts:
ARIs offense looks pretty functional at this point in the season and fairly predictable. They want to run the ball and execute short passes and allow Murray to scramble when needed to prolong drives.
SEA is going to try to keep pace with ARI (rather than take risks that might put them ahead or behind) and create negative plays or turnovers on defense so that they can find ways to win in the 4th quarter.
This should be a fun offensive game as neither defense is that good and both offenses have the multiple weapons around the end zone. I expect a back and forth affair with multiple scoring opportunities. TDs rather than FGs could lead to a truly elite DFS spot in Week 18.
Tourney Winning Players:
James Conner should see a ton of touches as one of the primary offensive pieces in this spot. His targets are limited, but his usage when in the game and his TD equity pave a pathway to 25+ points.
Game Environment:
ARI does not have great downfield WRs, but SEA is better at taking those outside WRs away than those in the middle of the field. ARI should be able to move the ball and they are fairly concentrated on offense.
SEA is facing a porous defense that should not pressure the QB and should allow SEA the time they need to move the ball. One concern for SEAs offense is time of possession. They are not great at converting on 3rd downs and allowing ARI to bleed to clock will be detrimental to this game environment taking off.
Both teams can and should have success (#TheWorkbook shows one of the highest Combined Net Drive Success Rates for this game) which will make for an interesting 4th quarter in a must win game for SEA.
My Plays:
With a lot of uncertainty this week, this game gives us certainty around who will play and who will get most of the targets. I like game stacks here.
The ARI side is more interesting for stacking multiple flex pieces. They are cheaper and anyone from James Conner to Dortch to Wilson to McBride can put up a decent score.
Geno + 1 pass catcher is the way to generate the most upside in this spot. Metcalf has shown the ceilings this year while Lockett and JSN are cheaper and have put up good price considered scores.
Trey McBride is a bit more expensive than I would like, but he has a high ceiling and I wouldn’t be surprised if he was a big part of the ARI game plan should they be forced to come back or pass often.
Recognizing Bias:
Stacks of SEA have not been profitable this year and it’s not likely to change in this spot unless ARI puts up a big game offensively. There is a lot of safety in knowing this game will be hard fought all the way through, but let’s not overrate the safety factor.
Steelers at Seahawks, Week 17
Initial Thoughts:
PIT likes to play dirty, not in a devious way, but in a messy way. SEA can sometimes give into that style of game as well. I could easily see a game with big penalties and long drives that should chew up clock and keep the stats off the box scores.
Both Ds are very good. While SEA should be able to handle the pass rush and can quickly get the ball out, PIT is going to have some problems. PIT will likely lean on the run game, but SEA isn’t really weak in that area.
It’s hard to see this game competing with a lot of the other spots on the slate.
Tourney Winning Plays:
49ers at Commanders, Week 17
Initial Thoughts:
SF is going to bring one of the best and most consistent offenses with clear targets to our DFS lineups this week. We should all take note.
WAS is going to be passing a lot to come back and someone(s) is (are) going to go off for a 4x or more score.
So many other games have a wider range of outcomes than this one and we can get some assurance by rostering 49ers of a majority of our lineups.
Tourney Winning Plays:
Any of the core four for SF can hit here. Price considered I like Deebo > CMC > Aiyuk > Kittle.
Brock Purdy is also in consideration because of how many QBs have hit for big scores vs. WAS. He has a great floor in this spot and a decent ceiling. 4-5 TDs is not out of the question for Purdy here.
Game Environment:
There just isn’t much that needs to be said. SF has a historically good offense and WAS is not good on defense. SF WILL score 30+ and the + has the potential to be their biggest score of the year; > 40.
WAS will be passing a lot as well when they have the ball, which probably won’t be that often. They have so many mouths to feed on offense that predicting who hits for 4-5x is not something I will be looking to do – I am already guessing trying to get the right SF players.
My Plays:
I will be stacking Purdy and Deebo and CMC to start off a lot of lineups because in the event they are winning you a tournament you can count on 80-100 points from them. It takes a lot of salary, but that’s also a lot of points.
I will be playing one offs of Deebo and CMC as well. If playing 20 max or larger fields I will include Purdy stacks with Aiyuk and Kittle as well. This offense is just in a great spot.
Recognizing Bias: none
Saints at Buccaneers, Week 17
Initial Thoughts:
NO is going to be able to move the ball through the air. They have really good short area targets when healthy and downfield targets and they have a good running game. They should be able to move the ball in this spot.
TB would like to pass the ball, but may find it difficult against NO. Mike Evans never does good against NO and his grounding would be a real loss for TB. Maybe a 6.1k Godwin will pay off here.
I don’t think either defense is going to fully stop the other and if we get a flurry of scoring in the 4th quarter we could see a real shootout here. Really good passing options with high ceilings.
Tourney Winning Plays:
Besides the week NO handily beat NO, Chris Olave has been seeing 8-9 targets and his athleticism really shines. Carr is good enough to get him the ball against this TB pass D. He is in play.
Rachaad White has the safest workload amongst RBs, the touches and targets just shines like a sparkling floor – only his ceiling is in question based on past performances, but it is there, especially in this run funnel spot.
Game Environment:
Both teams are pretty deliberate in their run/pass mix so we are not going to see some huge increase in passing. We are likeliest to see an evenly matched affair and as divisional matchups late in the season go, a lower scoring affair.
NO is the team more likely to tilt pass heavy and #TheWorkbook confirms my thinking with elevated PROE and CROE. Therefore, I imagine NOs success in the passing game could spur a higher scoring game and more aggressive TB team.
My Plays:
NO has so many pass catchers that it will be hard to pull the trigger on Chris Olave, but he truly does have a ton of upside in this matchup. He is probably best played as part of a NO stack with Carr and another pass catcher to take advantage of the game environment he will need to really hit a ceiling.
I will also be playing a TB bring back and Rachaad White is a favorite because he will be low owned and can compete with the most used RBs on the slate.
I will also consider Chris Godwin realizing that even though Marshone Latimore is not playing to shut down Mike Evans, NO has always had success against Evans and Godwin is well priced.
Recognizing Bias: none
Cardinals at Eagles, Week 17
Initial Thoughts:
It will make a lot of sense for PHI to run the ball in this spot. They are also going to look for play action spots (or whatever they do on offense to create big plays) to AJ Brown et al. I am more interested in Brown because of his super high ceiling.
Smith can hit for a decent game and Goedert can always go off as well, but Brown has the chance to really put the slate out of reach if you don’t have him.
Trey McBride is deserving of his 5.9k price averaging around 10 targets, but he can easily be beat by lesser priced TEs this week. Still, a bet on PHI that goes well will necessitate McBride again and he has been real good.
Tourney Winning Plays:
AJ Brown consistently sees 10+ targets and in this matchup he can totally blow up with that usage. Brown is probably my favorite play from this game and has one of the highest ceilings on the slate.
Game Environment:
PHI should have no trouble moving the ball against ARI, they have only struggled against the best defenses when they haven’t been able to connect on big plays. This should be a spot where they can move the ball on the ground by generating chunk plays and hit for big gains in the passing game.
If PHI can hit for big plays through Brown and/or Smith, they will shorten their drives and create some urgency from ARI. Murray can use his legs and connect with McBride in an attempt to drive the length of the field, seemingly the best and only option they have.
If PHI struggles to connect for big plays, they will likely disappoint DFS players because of the clock killing nature of these two teams. If PHI isn’t scoring quick, they will chew up clock and ARI is certainly wanting to hold the ball for as long as they can.
My Plays:
I am targeting AJ Brown in this spot and consequently Jalen Hurts. If Brown is producing a “had to have it” score, this game can actually pop a bit. Brown hitting would put Swift in play.
Trey McBride is a good play on his own for his floor/ceiling as the main offensive piece for ARI, but he is a better play if Brown is hitting forcing ARI to play a bit faster and feed him more targets downfield.
Recognizing Bias: none
Rams at Giants, Week 17
Initial Thoughts:
I went through the scoring during last weeks Showdown matchup of Rams/NO and it became a rule to play 2 of the 4 studs on every showdown lineup. At least one should be on 80% of your DK lineups.
LAR are a very good offense playing a inconsistent NYG defense. I hate to roster DFS plays from games played at NYG stadium, but there have been a fair number of blowouts and I think we may see a blowout here.
I have some interest in Darren Waller as a cheaper TE who could really post a had to have it score.
Tourney Winning Plays:
Kyren Williams is a GREAT PLAY (TD equity, carries, ability, matchup) and he is priced appropriately for the points he is expected to put up in this spot. I worry about his lack of targets in an easy win last week.
Puka and Cupp have combined for 34 and 38 targets respectively over the last 4 games. One of them has scored 27, 28, 29, and 36 DK points in those games. Its a good idea to be playing one of Kupp or Nacua on every roster.
Game Environment:
LAR should be able to move the ball and score plenty with Kyren leading the running game and Stafford connecting with Puka and Kupp and now Demarcus Robinson. This is a dynamic offense that utilizes pre-snap movement to create space for WRs and Stafford has found a lot of success putting the ball where it needs to be.
NYG primarily like to play through Saquon Barkley, who like many RBs priced around him, will need to score TDs to meet value.
LAR do not put a ton of pressure on the QB, so it’s possible Tyrod Taylor has the time to connect with his WRs downfield and keep NYG in this game. He had nominal success against PHI and will need to hit for big plays downfield to keep up with LAR on the scoreboard.
This looks like a decent game environment for LAR mini stacks with clear NYG bring backs.
My Plays:
I want to roster Puka and Kupp on a wide variety of lineups. I will include Kyren Williams and/or Stafford, but if I am rostering more than one LAR I will include some bring backs from NYG.
My NYG bring backs will include Barkley, Slayton or Waller. Tyrod Taylor is a good option for 4x at the QB position while freeing up salary for other spots.
Recognizing Bias:
Games played at NYG stadium are often low scoring (unless there is a blowout) and I usually discount these games all together as lacking upside. I recognize that I am not harboring that bias this week and that might be a problem.
Panthers at Jaguars, Week 17
Initial Thoughts:
Bryce Young had a good game at home against GB after going down 30-13 in the 4th quarter. He does have a few good instances taking advantage of garbage time and 4th quarter defenses, do if JAX has taken a big lead, we can speculate on the CAR offense.
JAX should be able to run the ball effectively in this spot, but they have not been a strong running team and outside of scoring multiple TDs, which he could, Travis Etienne is not likely to be worth it at 7.2k even though 30 points is within his range in a must win game for JAX.
I don’t expect a high scoring game, but their could be some useful players to roster if things go the way I am seeing them.
Tourney Winning Plays: none
Game Environment:
Neither team is really set up well on offense to play without trepidation and caution. This is likely the reason for the low game total.
JAX has a lot of weapons, but their offense struggles due to a poor run game and injuries in the passing game. CAR also struggles at the QB position to distribute the ball and that limits their abilities.
The one angle worth considering is if JAX can create some big plays in the run game (it doesn’t have to be Etienne alone who gets carries) and force a situation in the 4th quarter where a cheap Bryce Young is hitting a cheap DJ Chark again.
My Plays:
The only plays I would consider are Etienne paired with Bryce Young and DJ Chark (15.7k combined salary). If Etienne gets a big play and a couple TDs he can hit for 25-30 points and then all you need is 30-35 points from the CAR pieces to reach 4x with upside for more.
Recognizing Bias:
I am not sure if this combo even gives you the possibility of a separator score on your lineup and it comes with a lot of downside.
Raiders at Colts, Week 17
Initial Thoughts:
IND is a much better offense with Pittman playing and they should be able to move the ball against this LV team.
LV wants to run the ball and hide their passing game while depending on their defense to create pressure and limit big plays. MIA and DET are the only big play capable teams they have played recently and they both put up over 400 yards of offense.
IND isn’t likely to be able to force LV out of their low scoring game script, but they have also allowed plenty of big rushing games which should play right into LVs plans with Josh Jacobs.
Tourney Winning Plays:
Titans at Texans, Week 17
Initial Thoughts:
CJ Stroud can do a lot of great things on a football field and especially when his back is against the wall. HOU needs to win this game and Stroud can deliver, even against a stingy TEN D.
HOU is more susceptible to the pass than the run, and even though TEN would rather hide their passing game, they will open up the offense if forced.
TEN is always a spot that CAN shoot out, even though it is an unlikely bet. CJ Stroud and the HOU offense is a group I think can pull TEN out of their shell and lead to a shootout.
Tourney Winning Plays: none, it depends on game environment.
Game Environment:
If this game stays close throughout, expect a run heavy script from both teams. If one team jumps out to a lead, expect more passing and at least some DFS goodness from the passing attacks.
HOU seems like the team that could instigate a higher rate of passing. They use the run to create opportunities for their WRs to hit on big plays. TENs D is usually quite good at eliminating those, but HOU has multiple players (Collins, Brown) who are great at YAC.
If TEN is forced to pass more, they will likely look to Hopkins and HOU has been beat through the air by multiple teams this year. Its not a sure fire setup for “had to have it” scores, but there is a path.
My Plays:
Nico Collins has put up big games in a lot of seemingly bad spots this year. Noah Brown has a few good games against pass funnel teams (is TEN still considered that?) and CJ Stroud has considerable upside. I would play double stacks or use the WRs as one offs.
Deandre Hopkins can get 10+ targets if TEN needs to pass and HOU is better attacked through the air so he is an obvious bring back in lineups that feature HOU pieces.
Recognizing Bias:
Prices are quite high on these pieces with less assurance of them hitting than other spots we want to target (SF, LAR). Still, the ceilings are similar and the prices are a bit lower than SF, LAR.
Falcons at Bears, Week 17
Initial Thoughts:
CHI plays sound run D and should be able to hold the one receiving threat, Drake London, to a lackluster game. ATL will be forced to move the ball through their TE duo and RBs out of the backfield.
ATL plays a style of D that should keep Fields and company from making explosive plays. Coupled with their clock killing offense (they play relatively fast but keep the clock running), this game just doesn’t look like a good spot for DFS goodness.
Tourney Winning Plays: none
Game Environment:
We know ATL is going to try to run the ball and when they pass, CHI filters targets to the TEs and RBs – this is an offense that will struggle to gain big chunks even more than they usually do.
CHI is not a great offense, even with all of their weapons healthy. They will likely lean into their D and the run game in an effort to take a lead. If they fall behind, expect Fields to use his scrambling ability to keep drives alive and hope to hit some big pass plays.
If DJ Moore and Kmet were both playing and ATL was able to take a lead, you could squint and see CHI having some success in catch up mode.
My Plays:
Bijan Robinson still does get enough pass game work to be viable, but there are a lot of pathways to him failing in this spot as well.
Recognizing Bias:
Patriots at Bills, Week 17
Initial Thoughts:
BUF has finally realized that whoever has the ball last will win the game and anything that happens before that is just window dressing. Not exactly, but I do think BUF knows they are not at their best when aggressively attacking downfield.
BUF will continue to play a balanced offense that works in the run and the pass, hoping to find big plays while consistently moving the ball and playing sound defense. NE will struggle to score with the team they are putting out on the field.
With BUF being so spread out on offense, it wouldn’t surprise me if none of the players in this game do enough to make a tourney winning roster outside of possible Allen himself.
Tourney Winning Plays:
Dolphins at Ravens, Week 17
Initial Thoughts:
BAL looked like the top rated pass defense against SF and they have the potential to slow down MIA as well, especially without MIAs full complement of impact offensive players.
It looks like MIA will need to lean into the run in order to move the ball, but Tyreke Hill and the MIA offensive scheme often defy what is normal – ceilings remain in this spot.
BAL, especially Lamar Jackson, looked great under pressure and while MIA will not be providing as much pressure, he should still be able to move the ball and put up enough points to keep MIA pressing on offense.
A wide range of outcomes are possible in this game, but I would lean towards expecting the total to go over if BAL can indeed score TDs rather than FGs.
Tourney Winning Plays:
Jets at Browns, Week 17
Initial Thoughts:
Joe Flacco continues to throw the ball and CLE continues to win. Amari and Njoku continue to dominate targets. It would seem foolish to not get in on the action in this spot.
So the NYJ pass D is really good? CLE has faced three pass funnel Ds so it wouldn’t be surprising to see them shift more run balanced and if CLE passing game is going to be well owned, this might be the right play.
NYJ pass game is really bad and Breece Hall is an up and coming talent, but the offense as a whole has been really bad lately, and especially against the CLE D, I will not have much interest.
It seems like the CLE run game is the best spot to create leverage in this spot.
Game Environment:
CLE has loosed the reigns on Flacco for the most part, letting him throw deep and risk turnovers. He has 7 INTs and 10 TDs in 4 games (3 wins, 1 loss) and has thrown the ball 40+ times in every game.
NYJ have a good defense against both the run and the pass. This will be a better test for Joe Flacco than the last three pass funnel spots and with NYJ implied for less than 14 points, it is possible that CLE takes some of those deep shots out of the hands of Flacco, deciding to cut down on the risk. It seems like good strategy to throw the ball less and call more run plays.
However, the CLE run game is not reliable, and no one has been having much success against NYJs D, so it is also very possible that CLE just sticks with the aggressive mentality that Flacco brings to the table, realizing that NYJ is going to have a really tough time scoring on the elite CLE D.
Even if you did want to target the CLE run game in this spot, CLE has 3 RBs in the mix and all of them will split the workload.
NYJ is going to find the going tough against a good CLE D playing at home. Siemian gained 217 yards on 49 pass attempts against arguably the worst D in the league. This will not be an easy spot and he is a very risky play along with the entire NYJ passing offense.
NYJ will count on big plays from Breece Hall and possibly Garrett Wilson or they will simply rely on their D to create turnovers and negative plays. Hall is the only NYJ player I am excited to roster.
Building Lineups:
Lineups with Joe Flacco should include Amari and Njoku, but after that you will have to get creative in order to differentiate. I would be looking to play a third CLE WR like Marquise Goodwin hoping he is the recipient of a big play on Flacco lineups.
Joe Flacco doubles with no Amari nor Njoku have a path to victory and will be very low owned.
One of Ford or Hunt will be looked to inside the 10 yard line. In lineups that play Flacco double stacks, I will want to roster one or the other, hoping for one of the few TDs in this game.
CLE D should be highly owned for a defense and in this spot, they should compete with a lot of the players priced even higher than them. I would consider CLE D for some CPT lineups.
NYJ D is in consideration for me, but not paired with CLE D. NYJ consistently puts their D in bad spots. If NYJ D is going to be optimal, CLE D cannot be having a strong game as well. Consider pairing NYJ D with NYJ K.
NYJ offensive pieces outside of G. Wilson and Hall will go largely unowned. If Siemian is on a winning lineup, what type of game environment is taking shape? It’s possible both offenses struggle in this spot. How can Siemian outscore Flacco?
G. Wilson and Brownlee project to play the most snaps on NYJ. Can they both be rostered together? and what story does that roster tell?
Nothing is certain, especially in showdowns, so tell a different story and hope for the best!
Bengals at Steelers, Week 16
BENGALS AT STEELERS
Initial Thoughts:
The Bengals really have no choice, but to play very conservative because of their personnel. PIT will be able to pressure Browning and force him to focus on a few receivers, likely those of the shorter route variety and possibly Higgins.
The PROE on this game is slightly elevated based on CINs historical tendency to remain pass heavy. I am sort of thinking they approach the game through the air, but mix in plenty of runs, especially with Chase Brown contributing more.
PIT is certainly a run leaning team in this game, especially with the long shot projection of CIN jumping out to a lead quickly.
Saints at Rams, Week 16
Initial Thoughts:
LAR have a dynamic offense with a strong ability to run and pass, which has helped them score 28+ points in their last 4 games. The strength of the opponent doesn’t seem to matter to LAR.
NO has consistently allowed a large number of rush yards, playing into how LAR will want to focus their efforts. Will Kyren Williams be able to shoulder the heavy load having touched the ball 34 times last Sunday?
NO spreads the ball out so much in the passing game that it almost doesn’t matter who suits up, but getting Olave back would be a huge boost for their downfield passing game.
This game matches up two teams who want to ensure they are evenly mixing in the run game with short passes (aDot for both is 7.8) attempting to successfully drive the length of the field. What should help for both teams is the lack of a strong pass rush.
Judging by Air Yards data, NO is much more likely to push the ball down the field to Olave/Shaheed while LAR would much rather target Nacua/Kupp on shorter routes.
The RBs are the real gems of this game and both will be highly owned.
Game Environment:
Neither team desires to really push the pace of the game and neither team should be too excited to pass the ball. Still, the passing game is the most likely to produce big DFS games and shootouts, so a winning DFS strategy in this showdown would be to roster players integral to a successful passing game for both teams.
LAR will be more inclined by the matchup to run the ball, but NO has a slight expected benefit to their passing game via #TheWorkbook. If LAR are successful, this could lead to a higher scoring game as NO is expected to have more success through the air than on the ground.
IF NO is passing, they do like to spread the ball around to multiple pass catchers. It may be best to spread ownership out to several different NO pieces because they all get low to decent usage. Olave might be an exception and command a ton.
LAR history shows us they will commit to Williams and the run game, but he is playing on a short week after a large number of carries/targets.
Building Lineups:
LAR hold 4/5 of the top dollar spots in the player pool, but its been the case that you need 2 of the 4 to compete for top rosters in games LAR are competitive in. The two “had to have it scores” have been a rotation of Kupp, Nacua, Williams and Stafford.
It may be a spot to roster 4 NOs players and 2 LARs players to not only flip the script of the more likely builds, but to also afford better players in general and be able to dictate the game story you are telling with each lineup.
That’s really all the info you need here. I will be rotating lineups with two LAR studs on every one playing for the game script that this is a decently high scoring spot, at least from LAR.
Eagles at Seahawks, Week 15
Initial Thoughts:
This game matches up two of the worst performing teams in terms of defensive red zone scoring. SEA has allowed 65% of red zone possessions for their opponents to end up in a TD. PHI has been worse, allowing 70%. Both Ds have been getting worse as the season wears on.
No matter the QB, each team should be in a good spot to score TDs when they get the chances. This puts those red zone threats more into play in this game.
SEA Red Zone threats: Metcalf = Walker > Lockett.
PHI Red Zone threats: Hurts > Swift > Brown > Smith
Game Environment:
SEAs D has been fairly incapable at stopping any offenses this year. They have had occasional success vs. the run game, but generally allow teams to move the ball and score TDs. PHI is going to be moving the ball no matter who their QB is.
PHI D has been exploited recently as well, especially in the run game, which was not their weakness early in the year. SEA does not have a dynamic offense, but they will find way to move the ball as well.
This game looks more likely to feature high scores than low. We should be rostering those players with the most offensive ceiling hoping to hit on a “had to have it” score that can separate us from the portion of the field that does not roster that player.
Building Lineups:
When AJ Brown hits, one of Goedert or Smith is also having a good game, so my Brown CPT lineups will feature one of those players.
When D Smith hits, he always brings another player with him, but its been Brown x 2, Hurts, and Swift. Those CPT lineups will be a little less structured.
I will not be building for 5-1 onslaughts because the Ds are just not good enough.
A stack of 4 SEA players is cheaper and SEAs production is a bit more spread out. I think it will be easier and allow for more ceiling production to roster 4 SEA players and 2 PHI.
Cowboys at Bills, Week 15
Initial Thoughts:
DAL is not an easy D to move the ball nor score against. BUF is not an easy D to move the ball nor score against. Both teams will find ways to move the ball, but they will also stall out on drives and decide to add points to the score via FGs, decisions that could keep this game from really producing the DFS scores you need.
Dak + Lamb = 17.2k (need 69 for 4x) They have reached 63 vs. SEA and @ PHI and have reached 83 vs. NYG and 76 vs. LAR (all since their bye which marks a change in offensive philosophy) They are facing a good D on the road which makes this kind of ceiling less likely to be reached.
Allen + Diggs = 16.6k (need 66 for 4x) They have reached this mark once all year @ MIA when they scored 79 together. The next closest combined score was 60 and there have been plenty of duds.
You want to play the studs in a spot like this when two good offenses are facing off against good defense, but the studs are very expensive.
Tourney Winning Plays:
CeeDee Lamb has been consistently seeing targets and producing. The only knock on him here is his price and the strength of the BUF D in preventing points.
Game Environment:
Any game played between two top caliber teams has a wide range of outcomes. Since this game is in Buffalo in December and both teams have a good pass D, we can expect the more probable outcome is NOT a shootout.
Still, we have two mobile QBs who each are tied to a WR who can be a true target hog and games like that can blow up into spots where you need to have those pieces in order to win a tourney.
My Plays:
?
Commanders at Rams, Week 15
Initial Thoughts:
The path of least resistance for LAR is definitively in the pass game and Stafford has been playing well of late with his two top WRs.
WAS has shown an ability to excel in the passing game allowing Howell to put up big scores at QB.
It looks like WAS could give up a lot of points in this spot and give Howell a lot of chances to put up a big game himself.
Tourney Winning Plays:
All of Cooper Kupp, Puka Nacua, and Kyren Williams are on the cusp of being included here. They are all too expensive and are too equitable with the pot of points, but they all have a good matchup and solid volume.
Game Environment:
We know WAS is going to be passing the ball. They will have to put up points to compete with LAR and they will know this from the outset.
LAR have a really strong and balanced offense and will likely remain that way despite WAS being so susceptible to the pass. LAR will likely run to pass.
That’s going to be a lot of passing which should lengthen the game and increase the number of plays run. LAR do not have a great defense and Howell will have the time throw in this game. I expect him to put up a good fight.
My Plays:
I will have lineups with Stafford and a pass catcher (Kupp, Nacua, Kyren!!) because this is a great spot and they should see considerable volume.
I would like to roster Sam Howell again, but he spreads the ball out between receivers, his receivers rarely produce “had to have it” scores, and he is more expensive than Stafford.
Antonio Gibson is more than interesting at 5.2k if Brian Robinson is ruled out.
Recognizing Bias:
For the last 9 weeks, playing Sam Howell has been profitable with 3 scores above 25 and most above 20. However, only 2 WRs/TEs have posted separator scores at their current price tags. Still, if Howell posts 35 points like he did vs. PHI and a WR goes for 28 like Dotson did in that game, you may need that to win a tourney.
Chiefs at Patriots, Week 15
Initial Thoughts:
KC has a good defense that will be able to shut down the NE passing game, which is not saying much. NE has Zeke Elliott who will have to take on the entire Chiefs D pretty much on his own.
Mahomes should have the comfort of knowing NE will not outscore them, however I don’t think Mahomes’ nerves are hurting his team. KC cannot figure out how to move the ball against certain pass coverages and their WRs cannot catch the ball. KC will have opportunities if they can cash in.
We could see a Mahomes redemption game.
Tourney Winning Plays:
Patrick Mahomes is priced under 8k so we should probably play him now.
Rashee Rice is getting nearly 10 targets a game lately and has TD equity. He belongs with all Mahomes stacks and on his own.
Game Environment:
There isn’t much more to say except NE is facing a really good D and they already struggle to move the ball and score.
KC has not been impressive and according to their past we should not really bother, however I will not be surprised if Mahomes produces a 5TD game in this spot.
My Plays:
I will be playing Mahomes-Kelce stacks and Mahomes-Rice. I will not be including bring backs, but am fine playing KC D.
I will be playing Rashee Rice on his own because of his TD equity and solid volume for his price.
Recognizing Bias:
I am biased to think of Mahomes as a SuperBowl winning MVP type that can do it all. He may just end up with a bad regular season or he may bounce back. I don’t know, but I am sort of assuming he does…?
Bears at Browns, Week 15
Initial Thoughts:
CLE defense seems to be a shell of itself with injuries piling up, but they should still pose a threat to CHI as they are ranked high vs. the run and the pass.
CHI has been opportunistic on D lately, but they have found an ability to pressure the QB and with their run stuffing D, they can create some havoc on the opposing QB. Flacco will be the subject of some pressure if CLE can’t run.
CHI has a very useful offense with the legs of Fields, DJ Moore and Cole Kmet. They will find ways to move the ball and CLE will be forced to pass giving them paths to a big game, but also giving CHI D paths to a big game.
Tourney Winning Plays:
DJ Moore at 6.9k is still just a steal. He is the main piece of this offense and should be priced higher.
Amari Cooper will get a ton of targets vs. a beatable secondary.
Njoku and Kmet are both great players to include in any stack of this game. They are priced under 5k, but have way more ceiling than they are being priced for.
Game Environment:
CHI is playing well and Fields is playing well. They have a lot of good weapons on offense and can stretch any defense with those playmakers. If they can convert TDs in the red zone, they should be able to push CLE to be aggressive through the air.
CLE will be still express confidence in their D and may try to ride the rushing game early, but it feels like they will be forced to be more pass heavy given the defensive strengths of CHI.
This game has the potential to be a pass heavy game with plenty of under priced players. #TheWorkbook sees this in much the opposite way with PROE and CROE in negative territory for both teams. This could present a nice spot to take advantage of at low ownership.
My Plays:
JM has one negative stat that has the potential to totally alter my thinking on this game (CHI hasn’t allowed a WR to gain over 77 yards). Looking at the teams, situations, and QBs they have faced this year, there is really an explanation for every instance. I have sincere expectations that Cooper or Moore or Ford do just that.
Therefore, I will be making stacks of this game that start primarily with CHI and include one WR/TE bring back from CLE.
I like DJ Moore and will play him on many lineups. He is under priced for his skill and volume.
Recognizing Bias:
I am seeing some negative stats concerning the offensive environment on #TheWorkbook and from JM, but I refuse to believe that the future of either of these teams can be captured by their past performance. Too much has changed or developed.
Falcons at Panthers, Week 15
Initial Thoughts:
This CAR team may be 1-12, but they do a few things well. They have only allowed 2 teams to pass for over 250 yards (MIA, SEA) and only 3 other teams have passed for more than 200+ yards (DAL after their bye, DET, NO). Suffice to say, ATL will not be looking to find their success in the passing game.
It is all together obvious that ATL will lean hard into the run in this game and likely have some success doing it. Good rushing teams may rack up the yards, but CAR has kept one dimensional teams from scoring many points.
CAR should have some success moving the ball which will take away from ATLs possessions and lead to this game being lower scoring. This does not look like a good spot for DFS.
Tourney Winning Plays:
This is a really good spot for Bijan Robinson. Top RB scores vs. this CAR team have come from Mostert 37, Walker 30, Monty 24, Allgiers 24 and Bijan 20 and were all 2 TD performances outside of Bijan. There is 30 point upside here if Algiers doesn’t pilfer the TDs.
Game Environment:
ATL is going to be running the ball and utilizing their RBs out of the backfield a lot. I expect CAR to focus more of their attention to stopping them, but everyone knows what ATL is trying to do and they still excel in the running game.
CAR will instead attempt to keep everything in front of them and limit scoring. They have been very successful with this, but their offense continues to struggle. It would be a surprise if Bryce Young all of a sudden got better.
My Plays:
I expect Bijan to be chalky and for good reason. I do not think you have to play him, but he has a great chance for 20+. He is the only RB getting touches inside the 10 in the last 4 weeks.
49ers at Cardinals, Week 15
Initial Thoughts:
This is going to be a very lopsided game. I saw a stat about DVOA which had this 49ers team ranked as one of the top 10 teams of all time. Expect more of the same from this SF team. The only question is who to roster from SF and whether to stack them up.
Tourney Winning Plays:
Deebo, Aiyuk, CMC and Kittle. One or two of these guys is going to put up a separator score in this spot. By now, everyone knows this.
Game Environment:
ARI is coming off a bye week where they were likely busy putting in some new wrinkles. We know they will be passing the ball plenty to try to keep up, but the efficiency is going to be low vs. this really good D.
SF will put up points through their main contributors. They have plenty of big plays that result in TDs, so its really a factor of who hits for the big plays. Otherwise CMC, Samuel should get the looks inside the 10 and they will have plenty of opportunity for TD scoring.
My Plays:
I want to roster CMC and Deebo first and foremost. I also want Aiyuk and Kittle in case it is their week.
My bring back is Trey McBride and possibly Dortch (but he’s 4.1k!!?) – McBride has been getting all of the important looks and they draw up plays for him. He’s also quite good.
Recognizing Bias:
I am automatically giving SF 30 points. What if this second game of the year plus a bye week have helped ARI scheme for this game and treat it as their Superbowl? Could ARI shut them down in this spot (or outscore them!)
Texans at Titans, Week 15
Initial Thoughts:
This seems to be a great spot for HOU. They excel in the passing game and can defend the run well, taking away what TEN likes to do.
TEN has long been a defense that stuffs the run and tries to game plan for the specific opponent to limit the passing game. They had some success with a limited MIA team who was more inclined to run the ball on Monday night after Hill went down. They may have success vs. HOU, but I doubt HOU shies away from the pass game.
If Stroud can play, this HOU passing game should have plenty of opportunities and without Dell, their volume will be condensed amongst a few players, one of who has a good likelihood of hitting for a big score.
Tourney Winning Plays:
Noah Brown or Nico Collins will likely see a spike in usage in this spot. HOU is a dynamic passing team and when one of their WRs is out, the others see increased opportunity.
Game Environment:
Giants at Saints, Week 15
Initial Thoughts:
I have been surprised to see how few yards the NYG D allows to opposing QBs. Only the star programs have gotten to 300+ vs. them. NO is going to struggle to get the pass game going, which is no surprise to anybody.
NO should be able to contain NYG or at least limit them. It is possible NYG is ascending behind deVito and they score early and often. I don’t think NYG success would really affect NO in this spot. They methodically move the ball and are just not that successful scoring the TDs.
This is not an exciting spot.
Tourney Winning Plays: none
Game Environment:
Unless this game turns into a 30-30 back and forth game, I do not want to touch it or the players from it. This is highly likely to be a spot where NO spreads out their limited success amongst too many players to matter. NYG is just not a good bet on a slate this large.
It turns 30-30 if the NYG are scoring on some big plays because, “Why not go for broke?” and NO is forced to chuck it downfield (maybe with Winston) peppering Olave with targets so you had to have him to win tourneys.
My Plays:
I will be avoiding this game, but would consider a lineup that focused on the NYG passing game with an Olave bring back.
Jets at Dolphins, Week 15
Initial Thoughts:
MIA D has been getting better as the year has gone on until last week where MIA allowed 300+ yards for only the second time this season. I don’t think that happens against Wilson’s Jets. They just posted a ceiling game for passing last week.
NYJ have a solid D that can stop MIA, but they still may not. MIA of course is a tough team to contain and they can score in multiple ways in this spot, even against one of the top passing Ds.
Maybe the MIA RBs go off and the NYJs post a capable effort and bring either Hall or G. Wilson with them.
Tourney Winning Players:
G. Wilson will probably get 10+ targets at a very fair price, 5.8k. That is kind of hard to pass up, but he still has peaked at 23 DK points this year.
Game Environment:
NYJ are going to trying very hard to slow down the MIA passing game – they held HOU to 54 last week and NYG to -9 this year. With an injured Hill or no Hill, they can coax MIA to use the RBs more. This will not lead to as explosive a game as one where MIA is passing, but its still valuable.
MIA can score quickly and if they do, NYJ will be forced to pass the ball more. If MIA struggles to score, NYJ will probably have mistakes that limit the offense’s potential. If NYJ is forced to pass, we can be assured that Garret Wilson will get enough volume to be a really nice piece.
My Plays:
Buccaneers at Packers, Week 15
Initial Thoughts:
TB is a inconsistent team defensively. They have allowed big games to WRs and RBs alike (London, Hubbard, Pittman, Aiyuk, HOU (all), BUF (all)) in the last 7 games. It is very likely that a GB WR has a big game here (Watson or Dobbs?)
One of Rachaad White or Mike Evans is a good bet to produce a good-great score, but they are both expensive. TB doesn’t really have any other threats for a big game.
It does seem difficult to pass against GB. They have held 9/13 teams under 200 yards passing and only one over 300 yards. I imagine Rachaad White will be more likely to post the 20+ point score this week, but that’s not enough at his price.
Tourney Winning Scores:
Rachaad White is going to get elite volume in a great run matchup. His price is high and at 7k he really needs 25+ points which is his ceiling so far this year. He needs two TDs and a great game to go over 30 DK points.
Game Environment:
Both teams have been pretty inconsistent and held back by it. Jordan Love is susceptible to blitzing Ds, and I don’t know what TB D will do, but that is a known weakness so they will look to exploit it.
That being said, one GB WR will likely excel in this spot. It has happened so often so I want to play a good amount of the GB WRs.
I think GB will be able to contain Baker Mayfield and the TB rushing game, which is not well ranked. TB will be able to contain the GB rushing game – I mean AJ Dillon hasn’t done anything spectacular and barring a large shift in offensive play calling, this game seems to stay close to its Vegas lines.
My Plays:
Packers at Giants, Week 14
Initial Thoughts:
GB has been playing well of late, especially behind Jordan Love (24, 27, 24 in last 3). NYG, however, have only allowed big passing games (over 229) to DAL, MIA, and SF so I don’t expect Love will have that type of game this week, especially with Christian Watson unavailable.
NYG will be trying to lead with their D and Saquon Barkley. The net offensive numbers for both teams via #TheWorkbook show a lower expected efficiency in the pass game and in terms of drive success. I foresee two teams who will realize they do not need to score a ton of points to win this one.
Tourney Winning Plays:
Saquon Barkley should get a significant amount of touches relative to the game environment and is the focal point of their offense. He is in play however his price is also the highest RB cost on the 2 game slate and he should not see significantly more workload than Dillon.
AJ Dillon is no where near as good as Saquon, but he will see a similar volume of work as the lead back.
Game Environment:
This will likely be a very low scoring game with a reduced number of plays than we see on average. Games in NYG stadium often are lower scoring, but that’s expected in this year’s NFL.
NYG has a defense that can be blitz heavy when necessary, and Jordan Love has struggled a lot with blitzing. Expect NYG D to amp up the blitzes and if they work, Jordan Love will struggle. Either way, I expect NYG to be able to bottle up the passing game a good bit making GB WRs less attractive than other teams on this slate.
If GB is not moving the ball via the pass very well, they can rely on Aj Dillon and some other schemed runs to move the ball so players like Jayden Reed may hold more value.
Ultimately, GB should be able to contain the NYG pass game and make it very difficult for them to score, thereby keeping GB more conservative so that they do not turn the ball over when NYG brings pressure.
It is hard to see this game being played too far to the extremes of its Vegas total.
My Plays:
I do like AJ Dillon as a cheap RB who may go under owned, but who is a solid home favorite with no other RB to split.
I want to roster Saquon, but his price may be prohibitive as he needs to score a TD or 2 in a game that will likely be low scoring.
WRs I like in this game: Jayden Reed because he should get the shorter looks and may be used in the run game. Dontayvion Wicks is a nice punt option because he is efficient with his catches. I think people are more likley to get things wrong when rostering NYG players and none stand out has having the potential to produce “had to have it” scores.
Recognizing Bias: I am always biased against games in NYG thinking they will be low scoring, but look at the history yourself and you will see why.
Titans at Dolphins, Week 14
Initial Thoughts:
MIA has not really faced many good run Ds this year. They faced PHI at a time when they were stuffing the run and NE twice. They had a lopsided loss to PHI (scored 17) and only scored 24 and 31 points vs. NE. TEN should be worried about the passing game of MIA, but there is at least some hope that they can stay in striking distance in this game by stuffing the run.
TEN will like to feed Derrick Henry the ball, but no team other than their first opponent, LAC, has been able to ride the rushing game vs. this team. Every team has had to tilt pass heavy to keep up or has used the passing game to get out ahead early and force MIA to be one dimensional. Not many people, including me, think TEN can ride Derrick Henry to victory here.
It is interesting to see how TEN ran the ball effectively vs. IND, limited their scoring and was able to maintain their run game throughout the game. This is probably their best chance to pull off the upset or keep the game close.
Tournament Winning Plays:
MIA passing game pieces (Hill, Waddle, Tua) will be highly owned and are in great spots. If MIA succeeds, its because they scored early by way of the pass and then turned to the run or just kept passing the whole game.
Game Environment:
The most likely script is so easy to understand that it will be so heavily owned and seemingly impossible to profit from. That script involves MIA excelling in the pass game and forcing TEN to pass in order to come back. MIA D will be looking to capitalize on a one-dimensional offense with Will Levis at QB.
Angle #1: TENs run stuffing D and some big plays allow them to ride the run game into the second half. MIA stalls out on a few drives and settles for FGs. MIA will still be accumulating yards and receptions for Hill/Waddle, but they may struggle to score. TEN can manage their drives well and keep a very balanced attack that only necessitates short 3rd down conversions.
MIA may still win and come close to the Vegas total, but this angle would allow TEN to keep running the ball and if Derrick Henry gets 100 yards and 1 TD he will likely be a top scoring RB on the two game slate.
Angle #2: MIA has a ton of success throwing the ball and forgets about the run game completely, making Tua double stacks a must in order to win tournaments. Without the run plays, Tua is able to find another WR to elevate into tourney winning lineups. TEN is not able to keep up, but DeAndre Hopkins gets 10+ targets, putting him in play depending on the efficiency and scoring.
My Plays:
I will be playing a lot of Hill and Waddle on the two game slate. I will play them together with Tua (and possibly without), and I will play Hill on his own. In 3-max and SE I don’t think I will fade Tyreke for any other reason than its the easiest way to differentiate my lineup, but I will fade Waddle in lineups where I don’t play Tua.
I will play Derrick Henry on lineups that plan for Angle #1. I will likely play him with the TEN D, knowing the D needs to come up with big plays to keep Henry in the game.
I will be playing Okonkwo, but so will everyone else because TE is absurdly weak on this 2 gamer.
Recognizing Bias:
My bias here is with regards to the running game. I do not want to roster a split backfield against the top run D, but MIA has shown they are creative in play calling which could lead to them having success, especially if TEN is not scoring points.
Patriots at Steelers, Week 14
Initial Thoughts:
I don’t remember totals this low and it’s definitely out of my comfort zone to analyze a game so unique, but when I encounter a difficult or unknown problem, my engineering background always calls me to start by identifying what I know.
I know that the average NFL game for PIT has between 56-68 plays. I know that for NE it’s between 51-68, but 62-68 in the last 4 games with very low game totals. When paired together it’s a zero sum game meaning if one team is running more plays, the other team will have less plays.
I know that PIT will run about 30-35 times (26-36 in the last 5 games) and throw the ball 25-30 times.
This information is helpful in conceiving how individual players can score points based on targets and touches.
PIT has had 10 drives in 3 of last 4 games and 13 drives in one. NE has 10, 11, 12 drive in their last 3. Both PIT and NE have more opportunities in the first half consistently vs. the second half.
Both teams have low Drive Success Rates, 65% or so. Because they are not likely to hit for big plays and will need to drive the length of the field there is a low probability of TDs being scored, but that’s accounted for in the Vegas total. Stringing together 4 good sets of downs that could put a team into field goal territory (if they start on their own 25) is something like a 17% chance so out of 10 drives that start from their own 25, 2 may result in a field goal and the likelihood of a TD being scored is not too good either.
Because each possession will be so valuable I would not expect either team to take on much risk when moving the ball unless they are down more than one score.
That is a lot of information and not even the best DFS players will be able to take this info and construct winning lineups tonight, so let’s exploit that edge.
Building Lineups:
The RBs are the likeliest players to score and their ceiling value takes on a lot more meaning in a spot like this. I will want to include at least one RB (Harris, Warren, Zeke) on every roster.
PIT WRs have a narrow distribution of touches, so Johnson, Pickens, Freiermuth, and Robinson should split 20-25 targets, which could mean about 5 each. The shorter area target hogs like Johnson and Freiermuth should provide a good floor in a low scoring matchup. Pickens has more upside on his fewer targets, but PIT also may not want to push the ball down the field, lowering Pickens’ floor.
The QBs do not have rushing upside (maybe a couple points per game) and will likely only meet value if they throw a TD pass. You have to pair QBs with the WR/TE they connect with in the end zone (if they do at all) so mix and match with the QBs or avoid them all together.
Trubisky has scored between 10-15 DK points when he has started games with PIT. Zappe scored 22 points last year with a similar cast of characters when facing CLE. I am gonna suggest Zappe has the upside (but lower floor) and you will have to weigh cost-benefit when rostering Trubisky vs similar point per dollar options.
Stick with CPTs who you think can score TDs; the RBs, QBs, and big play WRs.
And if you do choose to make a roster tonight, don’t return to twitter to bad mouth the game, we can still win this showdown tonight as long as we outwit our competition and get a little lucky.
49ers at Eagles, Week 13
Initial Thoughts:
SF does not rush their offensive plays and neither does PHI, so this game can easily finish with a low total of plays, but those plays are more likely than many other spots to be explosive and chew up a lot of yards. If each team can convert their drives into TDs, we should see a lot of yardage and a lot of points.
Both offenses have had a lot of success this year and have been dynamic through the air and on the ground. While one team may jump out to a lead, no lead is safe in this game. It’s the kind of spot that can easily erupt into a shootout.
Tournament Winning Plays:
SF is a different sort of team as a large number of DFS points are split largely between 4 players. One of them will post a viable score every week. In this spot the pass catchers stand out, so Aiyuk, Deebo and Kittle are all tourney winning plays.
Game Environment:
PHI is one of the easiest Ds in the league to figure out for DFS. They are solid, but push teams to the air for a number of reasons 1) opposing teams always need to score points vs. PHI 2) they have a great run D. SF also pushes teams to throw for similar reasons, but for SF the pass rush is daunting leading teams to look for shorter passes.
We always say confidently that SF will find a way to put up points. They don’t run a ton of plays because they take their time on offense and are often in the lead, but they are very efficient and explosive. It’s likely they succeed here and even keep their foot on the pedal if leading.
PHI can move the ball in multiple ways and especially if Hurts starts scrambling and getting involved in the red zone. SF D has been playing well, but PHI is one of the best all around offenses that exists in the NFL and they will put up points to challenge or at least pressure SF.
My Plays:
I will be rostering some Brock Purdy led stacks. CMC did not score a TD on the ground vs. TB and JAX, two other good rush Ds. I find it highly likely that Purdy (or a Deebo run) are needed to score in this spot.
I will be stacking Purdy with Aiyuk and Kittle and Deebo, in no particular order. PHI has been shutting down some pretty good TEs, but Kittle has a high enough ceiling at TE that he can post a separator score in any matchup.
I don’t think CMC is a good one off play, but if this game truly shoots out to where defenses are getting worn down, CMC gets enough volume that he can post the score you had to have. I’m not sure if he should be played as a bring back in Hurts led rosters or alongside Purdy and one other pass catcher…
Recognizing Bias:
Our eyes get big when thinking of all the success OWS had last week vs. this Eagles team. Try to reign in that excitement and realize that this game could still be lower scoring or one sided in many of the possible game outcomes.