Initial Thoughts: What stands out the most from this slate is the lack of WR options that are worth rostering. Davante Adams, Zay Jones, Christian Kirk (maybe Burks) are heads and tails above the rest of the WR options, but we also know they will all be highly owned. I imagine 75% of rosters have Adams plus one of Jones/Kirk. After those 4, we have Juju who has a 20 + point ceiling and then Toney, R. Woods who have 20 point ceilings if you squint and really not much below that.
At the RB position you will have every lineup (>90%) rostering 2 of the following 5: Henry, Jacobs, McKinnon, Etienne, Pacheco. Henry and Jacobs have the highest ceilings. Many will roster 3/5 considering how little assurance we can have with WRs in this game. McKinnon continues to see the receptions and TDs (with Hardman back this red-zone situation is more muddled) carry his scores and Etienne receives the workload, but is in a tough matchup for RBs. Pacheco still does not see enough volume to reach the ceilings of the other backs, but he still provides a decent floor.
It is going to be hard to get a low owned play out of this slate that feels good. It is going to be hard to get a 1st place finish that is not a duplicated lineup because so many people are going to be forced to play the same guys. As always, we have to look for ways to be different, whether that is from a salary perspective and/or from a game environment perspective and telling a different story than others are telling.
Idea #1: Fade Davante Adams (8.8k) and play Mahomes (8.4k). Plenty of people will play these two together, but doing so forces you to take on a lot of extra risk. Mahomes can easily hit for 30-40 in this spot, and if Adams has a bad game (8 games under 20 points and 7 over 30) you are essentially gaining up to 20 points more than rosters with similar constructions and if your opponent paired Adams with Stidham, who will suffer without a big game from Adams, you will gain from that choice as well. Adams gained about 120 of his 150 yards on 3 big pass plays last week. KC allows a lot of passing yardage, but it is mostly underneath and not over the top. If Adams is not hitting its likely that another LV passing piece (Renfrow, Waller, Moreau, Mack) is hitting for a decent score.
Idea #2: Overstack the JAX passing attack. TEN defends the run well and forces offenses to pass. The only offenses that have really succeeded in doing this while scoring more than 20 points are BUF, PHI, and JAX (avg. 37 points). If JAX passing attack scores 4 TDs a Lawrence + 3 pass catchers stack could work. I would play Marvin Jones w/ 2 of Kirk, Zay, Engram. If the KC-LV game finishes with no outstanding price considered scores (Adams goes for < 20 and KC continues to spread the wealth on offense), this stack would be looking pretty good going into the night game.
Initial Thoughts: As soon as Justin Fields got a little nick, they made him a pocket passer and that was no good for his health, nor his abilities. I imagine they are still going to work on him as a pocket passer. I don’t think it was totally the hip injury that kept him from running, I think it was Detroit’s offense and the Bears figuring they should work on stuff. If CHI’s offense is no good, this game will likely disappoint. MIN can easily score, but won’t they be trying to get some rest here. This game has a low probability of going off. CHI will not jump to an early lead (defense and offense are not good) and if MIN grabs a lead, CHI will not be running Fields and hoping to claw back into the game. This game most likely has one sputtering offense (CHI) and one team content to rest players after getting on the same page with Jefferson a week after he was ejected from the game.
Initial Thoughts: The Bills need/want to win. I imagine they will be emotional and that is definitely helpful in terms of production. The Pats are in the hunt for the playoffs and they are likely to run the ball and keep Josh Allen off the field. I’m not sure they are capable of that and so I like Josh Allen and company in this game!
Initial Thoughts: Bucs have clinched and the Falcons are out. TB will not be as pass centric as they have been and ATL is likely working on their offense and defense for next year. Off the top of my head, the only target here is Drake London.
Trying to Win another Tourney! (213.64 POINTS!!!) – Scroll down for a better description of how and why I structure my game notes in this manner.
Initial Thoughts: The two strengths for these offenses are their run games. The two weaknesses for the defenses are in the run game. Neither team is going to abandon the pass, especially if they feel the need to push the pace, but each pass D is tops in the league so the rushing attempts should outweigh the passing for both sides. At elevated prices it is hard to see a game stack here paying off or contributing to a 200+ point score. If Hurts does not play, Gardner Minshew is only 4.8k and Sanders is 6.2k coming off a game in which he really disappointed the 30% of people who rostered him. He will be very low owned.
At OWS, we look for the GAME ENVIRONMENTS that produce tourney winning scores. In addition, we need to know who the TOP PLAYS are (despite ownership) and not be afraid to play them! We look for ANGLES that allow us to fit the best plays into a lineup that is different. Finally, we need to be considering good LEVERAGE spots that we can take advantage of. That’s what I look for in this space.
How I structure my Notes:
Initial Thoughts: Before I read the NFL Edge I find time to do my own research and synthesize some of my thoughts about the game.
Tourney Winning Plays: Players who get enough volume and quality volume to post a tourney winning score on their own regardless of the game environment. Most DFS players will be building around these pieces.
Likely Game Environment and stacks within that environment to capitalize on in order to squeeze as many FPs as possible out of good games.
My Plays are the people I will be looking to roster from this game.
Leverage plays are written later in the week, like on Saturday, after I have gotten a full feel for the slate and know where I can gain leverage off of likely high ownership or -EV chalky spots.
Trying to Win another Tourney! (213.64 POINTS!!!) – Scroll down for a better description of how and why I structure my game notes in this manner.
Initial Thoughts: The opportunity WAS has to win this game can only come through limiting SFs scoring. WAS cannot score on SF with regularity. WAS does have a pretty good run D, but SF has enough play makers on offense and enough of a dynamic offense that the WAS D shouldn’t stop them. There are not many other pathways to this game developing other than a slow game environment with SF gradually increasing taking control. Heinicke + McLaurin (11.5k) had produced solid scores before, but you take on a lot of risk (tanking your roster risk) for a possible 5x score and you only get two spots on your roster correct. Good but I’m guessing there are other spots that have a better than 10% chance of hitting. SF could always dominate like they did vs. Bucs, but that takes McCaffrey out of the game before he has a real chance to pay off his 8.8k salary. This is mostly a stay away game.
At OWS, we look for the GAME ENVIRONMENTS that produce tourney winning scores. In addition, we need to know who the TOP PLAYS are (despite ownership) and not be afraid to play them! We look for ANGLES that allow us to fit the best plays into a lineup that is different. Finally, we need to be considering good LEVERAGE spots that we can take advantage of. That’s what I look for in this space.
How I structure my Notes:
Initial Thoughts: Before I read the NFL Edge I find time to do my own research and synthesize some of my thoughts about the game.
Tourney Winning Plays: Players who get enough volume and quality volume to post a tourney winning score on their own regardless of the game environment. Most DFS players will be building around these pieces.
Likely Game Environment and stacks within that environment to capitalize on in order to squeeze as many FPs as possible out of good games.
My Plays are the people I will be looking to roster from this game.
Leverage plays are written later in the week, like on Saturday, after I have gotten a full feel for the slate and know where I can gain leverage off of likely high ownership or -EV chalky spots.
Trying to Win another Tourney! (213.64 POINTS!!!) – Scroll down for a better description of how and why I structure my game notes in this manner.
Initial Thoughts: The opportunity WAS has to win this game can only come through limiting SFs scoring. WAS cannot score on SF with regularity. WAS does have a pretty good run D, but SF has enough play makers on offense and enough of a dynamic offense that the WAS D shouldn’t stop them. There are not many other pathways to this game developing other than a slow game environment with SF gradually increasing taking control. Heinicke + McLaurin (11.5k) had produced solid scores before, but you take on a lot of risk (tanking your roster risk) for a possible 5x score and you only get two spots on your roster correct. Good but I’m guessing there are other spots that have a better than 10% chance of hitting. SF could always dominate like they did vs. Bucs, but that takes McCaffrey out of the game before he has a real chance to pay off his 8.8k salary. This is mostly a stay away game.
Tourney Winning Plays: cmc but threat of rest is real and WAS has a solid run D. Kittle at TE is solid with no Deebo and Purdy seems to agree.
Game Environment: not attractive
My Plays: Kittle.
Leverage Plays:
At OWS, we look for the GAME ENVIRONMENTS that produce tourney winning scores. In addition, we need to know who the TOP PLAYS are (despite ownership) and not be afraid to play them! We look for ANGLES that allow us to fit the best plays into a lineup that is different. Finally, we need to be considering good LEVERAGE spots that we can take advantage of. That’s what I look for in this space.
How I structure my Notes:
Initial Thoughts: Before I read the NFL Edge I find time to do my own research and synthesize some of my thoughts about the game.
Tourney Winning Plays: Players who get enough volume and quality volume to post a tourney winning score on their own regardless of the game environment. Most DFS players will be building around these pieces.
Likely Game Environment and stacks within that environment to capitalize on in order to squeeze as many FPs as possible out of good games.
My Plays are the people I will be looking to roster from this game.
Leverage plays are written later in the week, like on Saturday, after I have gotten a full feel for the slate and know where I can gain leverage off of likely high ownership or -EV chalky spots.
Tourney Winning Plays: The Texans have played tough against the Cowboys and Chiefs the last two weeks. They held both offenses to 57 total combined points and 900+ yards of total offense, not exactly a top tier defense, but impressive not the less. The Titans will be difficult to run the ball on and HOU doesn’t have a great passing offense, so I expect HOU to finally have a more difficult time scoring points. Besides turnovers I am not really sure how they have done it. Expect TEN to run the ball constantly through Derrick Henry and for him to clear 100 yards easily in this game. He is the only player I have any interest in here and I am sure plenty of other people will have similar interest. Henry + Titans D will be pretty chalky.
Game Environment:
My Plays:
Leverage Plays:
At OWS, we look for the GAME ENVIRONMENTS that produce tourney winning scores. In addition, we need to know who the TOP PLAYS are (despite ownership) and not be afraid to play them! We look for ANGLES that allow us to fit the best plays into a lineup that is different. Finally, we need to be considering good LEVERAGE spots that we can take advantage of. That’s what I look for in this space.
How I structure my Notes:
Initial Thoughts: Before I read the NFL Edge I find time to do my own research and synthesize some of my thoughts about the game.
Tourney Winning Plays: Players who get enough volume and quality volume to post a tourney winning score on their own regardless of the game environment. Most DFS players will be building around these pieces.
Likely Game Environment and stacks within that environment to capitalize on in order to squeeze as many FPs as possible out of good games.
My Plays are the people I will be looking to roster from this game.
Leverage plays are written later in the week, like on Saturday, after I have gotten a full feel for the slate and know where I can gain leverage off of likely high ownership or -EV chalky spots.
Trying to Win another Tourney! (213.64 POINTS!!!) – Scroll down for a better description of how and why I structure my game notes in this manner.
Initial Thoughts: CIN and Joe Burrow get another chance to get their elite passing offense going, but NE is a pretty tough D to face, especially vs. the pass. There is little expectation for the NE offense in this spot meaning CIN will have to keep their foot on the gas pedal in order to really rack up the DFS points. CIN will likely find a way to score TDs, but it is hard to lock onto one of the WRs and hope they produce a tourney winning score. It is more likely that the opportunities are spread out amongst Chase, Higgins, Boyd or that one pops off for a usable DFS score in this one.
Game Environment: seems fine but unlikely to shootout. Hard to pinpoint who might put up a 4x score and the ceiling isn’t much above that.
My Plays: likely none but I’ll play Chase on teams where it makes sense to grab an expensive guy who can put me over the top.
Leverage Plays:
At OWS, we look for the GAME ENVIRONMENTS that produce tourney winning scores. In addition, we need to know who the TOP PLAYS are (despite ownership) and not be afraid to play them! We look for ANGLES that allow us to fit the best plays into a lineup that is different. Finally, we need to be considering good LEVERAGE spots that we can take advantage of. That’s what I look for in this space.
How I structure my Notes:
Initial Thoughts: Before I read the NFL Edge I find time to do my own research and synthesize some of my thoughts about the game.
Tourney Winning Plays: Players who get enough volume and quality volume to post a tourney winning score on their own regardless of the game environment. Most DFS players will be building around these pieces.
Likely Game Environment and stacks within that environment to capitalize on in order to squeeze as many FPs as possible out of good games.
My Plays are the people I will be looking to roster from this game.
Leverage plays are written later in the week, like on Saturday, after I have gotten a full feel for the slate and know where I can gain leverage off of likely high ownership or -EV chalky spots.
Trying to Win another Tourney! (213.64 POINTS!!!) – Scroll down for a better description of how and why I structure my game notes in this manner.
Initial Thoughts: There is not much exceptional about the Giants. They have no players over a 16% target share (Saquon, Slayton, Richie James) and they do not pass that often except for the game they got blown out by DET. No one is going to get enough volume on their own to play outside of game stacks. Speaking of game stacks, the Vikings are another team that just seems to play to high scoring totals nearly every week. There will definitely be some offense in this game. Targets for MIN should run through Hockenson and Jefferson and the game environment should push D. Jones to the air a bit, but it also wouldn’t be surprising if the individual scores in this game fail to produce scores you need to win a tourney at the prices we are seeing. I would almost rather bet on the game environment by playing Daniel Jones + WR, realizing that NYG will probably be forced to come back at some point and Jones can either run the ball or lock on to Slayton or R. James.
Tourney Winning Plays: Jefferson should get a lot of volume and be the first look when the blitz gets going.
Game Environment: NYG could drag down the pace of this game. They could make it very hard for MIN to sustain drives at the beginning of the game and ultimately slow things down a bit, but once MIN figures things out they can always post a tourney winning score.
My Plays: Just game stacks with Jefferson, Dalvin, D. Jones, one of Slayton/R James.
Leverage Plays:
At OWS, we look for the GAME ENVIRONMENTS that produce tourney winning scores. In addition, we need to know who the TOP PLAYS are (despite ownership) and not be afraid to play them! We look for ANGLES that allow us to fit the best plays into a lineup that is different. Finally, we need to be considering good LEVERAGE spots that we can take advantage of. That’s what I look for in this space.
How I structure my Notes:
Initial Thoughts: Before I read the NFL Edge I find time to do my own research and synthesize some of my thoughts about the game.
Tourney Winning Plays: Players who get enough volume and quality volume to post a tourney winning score on their own regardless of the game environment. Most DFS players will be building around these pieces.
Likely Game Environment and stacks within that environment to capitalize on in order to squeeze as many FPs as possible out of good games.
My Plays are the people I will be looking to roster from this game.
Leverage plays are written later in the week, like on Saturday, after I have gotten a full feel for the slate and know where I can gain leverage off of likely high ownership or -EV chalky spots.
Trying to Win another Tourney! (213.64 POINTS!!!) – Scroll down for a better description of how and why I structure my game notes in this manner.
Initial Thoughts: This looks like a very fun game to target for DFS. The Hawks are very condensed on offense with Geno/Metcalf/Walker and Goodwin I guess. They should be pressed to throw the ball and try to keep up with a KC offense that will eventually score points during the game. Juju and Kelce are the obvious target hogs with McKinnon still getting 7-8 targets nearly every game when healthy. The offense is not necessarily looking for those big plays, but seems to do fine with a more efficient passing style – racking up receptions. It might happen that the target hogs also grab the TDs one of these games making Mahomes and one of Kelce/Juju a had to have it piece this week. You might as well bring it back with Metcalf or Goodwin (or Fant) at a cheaper price.
Tourney Winning Plays: DK Metcalf is such a sure bet for 10+ targets. Honestly so is Juju and so is Kelce. All can be considered high floor and high upside pieces. Put Geno in the same mix and Mahomes. Lots of tourney winning plays from this game.
Game Environment: it’s obviously going to be a good game environment. KC would have to fail massively and let SEA compete with a middling run game.
My Plays: Geno Smith with Marquise Goodwin and DK Metcalf could combine for 200 yards (1 bonus) and 13 receptions and 2TDs (48 points, like 4x) and Geno would be a good bet to add to that. I want Kelce and/or Juju as a run back – they are going to run into some TDs soon. I like McKinnon but I’m also wary of playing the hot hand.
Leverage Plays:
At OWS, we look for the GAME ENVIRONMENTS that produce tourney winning scores. In addition, we need to know who the TOP PLAYS are (despite ownership) and not be afraid to play them! We look for ANGLES that allow us to fit the best plays into a lineup that is different. Finally, we need to be considering good LEVERAGE spots that we can take advantage of. That’s what I look for in this space.
How I structure my Notes:
Initial Thoughts: Before I read the NFL Edge I find time to do my own research and synthesize some of my thoughts about the game.
Tourney Winning Plays: Players who get enough volume and quality volume to post a tourney winning score on their own regardless of the game environment. Most DFS players will be building around these pieces.
Likely Game Environment and stacks within that environment to capitalize on in order to squeeze as many FPs as possible out of good games.
My Plays are the people I will be looking to roster from this game.
Leverage plays are written later in the week, like on Saturday, after I have gotten a full feel for the slate and know where I can gain leverage off of likely high ownership or -EV chalky spots.
Trying to Win another Tourney! (213.64 POINTS!!!) – Scroll down for a better description of how and why I structure my game notes in this manner.
Initial Thoughts: We have two teams that are not very offensively minded and prefer to play slow and run the ball. It doesn’t seem like either team is interested in passing a ton, but if either team was forced to pass, the targets would flow to a decently condensed group of players. For NO you would distribute targets between Olave, Johnson and Shaheed. For CLE its Cooper, DPJ and Njoku (but Watson has been able to spread the ball out a bit more than that) – if a true shootout somehow develops there could be some fantasy goodness here, but I can’t figure out how it would develop outside of some fluky plays.
Game Environment: the Vegas total speaks volumes. There is a significant chance this game could end 14-10. Not much chance if weather is really bad of this game having lots of offense.
My Plays: none
Leverage Plays:
At OWS, we look for the GAME ENVIRONMENTS that produce tourney winning scores. In addition, we need to know who the TOP PLAYS are (despite ownership) and not be afraid to play them! We look for ANGLES that allow us to fit the best plays into a lineup that is different. Finally, we need to be considering good LEVERAGE spots that we can take advantage of. That’s what I look for in this space.
How I structure my Notes:
Initial Thoughts: Before I read the NFL Edge I find time to do my own research and synthesize some of my thoughts about the game.
Tourney Winning Plays: Players who get enough volume and quality volume to post a tourney winning score on their own regardless of the game environment. Most DFS players will be building around these pieces.
Likely Game Environment and stacks within that environment to capitalize on in order to squeeze as many FPs as possible out of good games.
My Plays are the people I will be looking to roster from this game.
Leverage plays are written later in the week, like on Saturday, after I have gotten a full feel for the slate and know where I can gain leverage off of likely high ownership or -EV chalky spots.
Trying to Win another Tourney! (213.64 POINTS!!!) – Scroll down for a better description of how and why I structure my game notes in this manner.
Initial Thoughts: While the Bears cannot win a shootout vs. a good defense (they do not have big passing plays or an ability to quickly drive the field) they can put up at least a few TDs and if the game is within one possession in the 4th quarter it is possible that Fields can take over the game and win it on his own much the way Josh Allen can. BUF has a much more dynamic offense and an ability to pass and run. For DFS we certainly want BUF to be pressed to score early and often against a bad Bears D. Josh Allen can always pay off his 8.5k salary (scored 39 last week) but he will need to be pressed late into the 4th quarter to attain those rushing upside points and multiple TDs.
Tourney Winning Plays: Diggs should get a ton of volume in a game where Allen throws 35+ which will depend on weather.
Game Environment: if the weather allows for it we should see a pretty good game for scoring. Fields is difficult to defend and should have some big plays. The Bills will be able to find ways to beat the Bears and will likely have success from the start. The total has accounted (maybe too much) for weather and the Bills still have 24 points. There may be room for the Bills to get to 40 points in this spot and CHI would likely also be scoring.
My Plays: I like Josh Allen in a week with lots of low scores. Allen would primarily benefit from a higher scoring game here. So would Stef Diggs whose ownership will be low with weather taken into account. I also like any BUF pass catcher. I would run a Kmet or Pringle bring back.
Leverage Plays:
At OWS, we look for the GAME ENVIRONMENTS that produce tourney winning scores. In addition, we need to know who the TOP PLAYS are (despite ownership) and not be afraid to play them! We look for ANGLES that allow us to fit the best plays into a lineup that is different. Finally, we need to be considering good LEVERAGE spots that we can take advantage of. That’s what I look for in this space.
How I structure my Notes:
Initial Thoughts: Before I read the NFL Edge I find time to do my own research and synthesize some of my thoughts about the game.
Tourney Winning Plays: Players who get enough volume and quality volume to post a tourney winning score on their own regardless of the game environment. Most DFS players will be building around these pieces.
Likely Game Environment and stacks within that environment to capitalize on in order to squeeze as many FPs as possible out of good games.
My Plays are the people I will be looking to roster from this game.
Leverage plays are written later in the week, like on Saturday, after I have gotten a full feel for the slate and know where I can gain leverage off of likely high ownership or -EV chalky spots.
Trying to Win another Tourney! (213.64 POINTS!!!) – Scroll down for a better description of how and why I structure my game notes in this manner.
Initial Thoughts: DET is probably the best TEAM in the NFL. They make it all work and I am sure that has more to do with team concepts than the individual players, but someone seems to step up for them every week. Jared Goff threw the ball 38 times vs. NYJ and did not get intercepted. He was inefficient, but that is to be expected. It just speaks to DETs confidence in their passing game. CAR is a run first and second team with a defense that seems to be putting together a good end of season run. They were out ball controlled vs. PIT and the offense was forced to watch most of the game. CAR will try to get back to their running ways vs. DET, but DETs defense on the ground is good. DET should be able to control the ball in this game and feed their WRs again. I doubt that CAR can keep up with the passing attack of DET and see DET running away with this game and forcing CAR to also turn to the air (or DJ Moore/Chubba Hubbard) once they fall behind. This game could provide decent DFS scores, but I think CAR likely holds this game back from truly shooting out.
Tourney Winning Plays: Amon Ra St Brown is likely to get 8-10 targets and connect on a bunch of them 6-8. He could go for over 100 yards and a TD (26 points) and could also go for more, but his floor is probably 6 Rec., 75 yards (13.5 points) DJ Chark should get 6 targets and can go for 4/80/1 TD very easily (18 points) and possibly will see more production with 5x firmly in play.
Game Environment: I still think people are too late to the Lions. They will be owned at least somewhat, even in a game with a 44 total. They should be passing a decent amount and Goff/Brown/Chark have shown good balance and many other pieces of the offense mix in and help keep other teams off balance. Carolina won’t be able to run enough to be effective and they will have to turn to the pass in order to keep up, which could make DJ Moore see more volume – he needs it to be relevant.
My Plays: I could see myself playing any of Goff, Brown, Chark, Moore. I could see myself looking at Swift as well but there are other RB options that are more attractive.
Leverage Plays:
At OWS, we look for the GAME ENVIRONMENTS that produce tourney winning scores. In addition, we need to know who the TOP PLAYS are (despite ownership) and not be afraid to play them! We look for ANGLES that allow us to fit the best plays into a lineup that is different. Finally, we need to be considering good LEVERAGE spots that we can take advantage of. That’s what I look for in this space.
How I structure my Notes:
Initial Thoughts: Before I read the NFL Edge I find time to do my own research and synthesize some of my thoughts about the game.
Tourney Winning Plays: Players who get enough volume and quality volume to post a tourney winning score on their own regardless of the game environment. Most DFS players will be building around these pieces.
Likely Game Environment and stacks within that environment to capitalize on in order to squeeze as many FPs as possible out of good games.
My Plays are the people I will be looking to roster from this game.
Leverage plays are written later in the week, like on Saturday, after I have gotten a full feel for the slate and know where I can gain leverage off of likely high ownership or -EV chalky spots.
Trying to Win another Tourney! (213.64 POINTS!!!) – Scroll down for a better description of how and why I structure my game notes in this manner.
Initial Thoughts: The ATL offense is still not great, but they do well with their running game and lack of passing – it just seems like they can only win if the other team plays the way they want them to, which is slow and low scoring. BAL tends to do that as well, especially if Lamar is out. You could hope for a multi TD game from one of the RBs in this game or hope a WR/TE has a huge game, but the environment for this one is not looking good for DFS.
Tourney Winning Plays: maybe Drake London if you believe the 10+ targets sticks. He is still much more likely to go 4x that 5x (isn’t everyone…lol)
Game Environment: not a great environment because there is too much rushing.
My Plays: I could use Drake London if a) low owned and b) ceiling is taken into account by other plays in the lineup.
Leverage Plays:
At OWS, we look for the GAME ENVIRONMENTS that produce tourney winning scores. In addition, we need to know who the TOP PLAYS are (despite ownership) and not be afraid to play them! We look for ANGLES that allow us to fit the best plays into a lineup that is different. Finally, we need to be considering good LEVERAGE spots that we can take advantage of. That’s what I look for in this space.
How I structure my Notes:
Initial Thoughts: Before I read the NFL Edge I find time to do my own research and synthesize some of my thoughts about the game.
Tourney Winning Plays: Players who get enough volume and quality volume to post a tourney winning score on their own regardless of the game environment. Most DFS players will be building around these pieces.
Likely Game Environment and stacks within that environment to capitalize on in order to squeeze as many FPs as possible out of good games.
My Plays are the people I will be looking to roster from this game.
Leverage plays are written later in the week, like on Saturday, after I have gotten a full feel for the slate and know where I can gain leverage off of likely high ownership or -EV chalky spots.
Trying to Win another Tourney! (213.64 POINTS!!!) – Scroll down for a better description of how and why I structure my game notes in this manner.
Initial Thoughts: The Patriots have a good defense. The Raiders do not. NE should be able to move the ball and score, just like every team that faces LV, especially in Vegas. NE should be able to hold Jacobs and Davante to a score that comes no where close to what they need to pay off their salaries. NE passing game might be a good place to take a bet on.
At OWS, we look for the GAME ENVIRONMENTS that produce tourney winning scores. In addition, we need to know who the TOP PLAYS are (despite ownership) and not be afraid to play them! We look for ANGLES that allow us to fit the best plays into a lineup that is different. Finally, we need to be considering good LEVERAGE spots that we can take advantage of. That’s what I look for in this space.
How I structure my Notes:
Initial Thoughts: Before I read the NFL Edge I find time to do my own research and synthesize some of my thoughts about the game.
Tourney Winning Plays: Players who get enough volume and quality volume to post a tourney winning score on their own regardless of the game environment. Most DFS players will be building around these pieces.
Likely Game Environment and stacks within that environment to capitalize on in order to squeeze as many FPs as possible out of good games.
My Plays are the people I will be looking to roster from this game.
Leverage plays are written later in the week, like on Saturday, after I have gotten a full feel for the slate and know where I can gain leverage off of likely high ownership or -EV chalky spots.
Trying to Win another Tourney! (213.64 POINTS!!!) – Scroll down for a better description of how and why I structure my game notes in this manner.
Initial Thoughts: CIN will probably have to be pushed in order to make them get aggressive. It seems like we have gone past the point of no return on Tom Brady and if Brady isn’t going to be effective, neither does Burrow need to. This game could easily bust.
Tourney Winning Plays: Ja’Maar Chase, especially if he is the main offensive weapon on the team, he’s got a great chance to break something and/or build up the targets and receptions throughout the game.
Game Environment:
My Plays:
Leverage Plays:
At OWS, we look for the GAME ENVIRONMENTS that produce tourney winning scores. In addition, we need to know who the TOP PLAYS are (despite ownership) and not be afraid to play them! We look for ANGLES that allow us to fit the best plays into a lineup that is different. Finally, we need to be considering good LEVERAGE spots that we can take advantage of. That’s what I look for in this space.
How I structure my Notes:
Initial Thoughts: Before I read the NFL Edge I find time to do my own research and synthesize some of my thoughts about the game.
Tourney Winning Plays: Players who get enough volume and quality volume to post a tourney winning score on their own regardless of the game environment. Most DFS players will be building around these pieces.
Likely Game Environment and stacks within that environment to capitalize on in order to squeeze as many FPs as possible out of good games.
My Plays are the people I will be looking to roster from this game.
Leverage plays are written later in the week, like on Saturday, after I have gotten a full feel for the slate and know where I can gain leverage off of likely high ownership or -EV chalky spots.
Trying to Win another Tourney! (213.64 POINTS!!!) – Scroll down for a better description of how and why I structure my game notes in this manner.
Initial Thoughts: LAC was pretty dominant vs MIA and its likely because the whole arsenal is back and healthy. LAC is going to dominate again or at least score a lot of points while moving the ball a bunch. TEN should be able to run the ball a fair bit making D Henry stand out, but its also likely that TEN finds themselves in a negative game script as the game heads into the second half and is forced to pass.
NEW*** Avoiding biases/Challenging preconceived notions: If TEN is not leading the game, it is ever worth it to play Derrick Henry at an 8k price tag. The most DFS points he can get via the passing game is (3-4 rec/20-30 yards) 5-7 points and if he really needs 30, that’s 23-25 points he needs to get through TDs and yardage and bonuses. 130 yards = 16 points, 1 TD = 6, Total 27-30 points for an exceptional game. If TEN is leading the whole way (which implies they can stop a fully functioning and healthy LAC attack and not fall behind) D Henry can reach 4x his price, but not owning him likely won’t hurt you too bad.
Tourney Winning Plays:
Game Environment:
My Plays:
Leverage Plays:
At OWS, we look for the GAME ENVIRONMENTS that produce tourney winning scores. In addition, we need to know who the TOP PLAYS are (despite ownership) and not be afraid to play them! We look for ANGLES that allow us to fit the best plays into a lineup that is different. Finally, we need to be considering good LEVERAGE spots that we can take advantage of. That’s what I look for in this space.
How I structure my Notes:
Initial Thoughts: Before I read the NFL Edge I find time to do my own research and synthesize some of my thoughts about the game.
Tourney Winning Plays: Players who get enough volume and quality volume to post a tourney winning score on their own regardless of the game environment. Most DFS players will be building around these pieces.
Likely Game Environment and stacks within that environment to capitalize on in order to squeeze as many FPs as possible out of good games.
My Plays are the people I will be looking to roster from this game.
Leverage plays are written later in the week, like on Saturday, after I have gotten a full feel for the slate and know where I can gain leverage off of likely high ownership or -EV chalky spots.
Trying to Win another Tourney! (213.64 POINTS!!!) – Scroll down for a better description of how and why I structure my game notes in this manner.
Initial Thoughts: The Broncos really do have a good D, especially vs. the pass. AZ should be operating mainly through James Connor though and they will have a backup QB. This is an unlikely place to target players from outside of James Connor himself.
At OWS, we look for the GAME ENVIRONMENTS that produce tourney winning scores. In addition, we need to know who the TOP PLAYS are (despite ownership) and not be afraid to play them! We look for ANGLES that allow us to fit the best plays into a lineup that is different. Finally, we need to be considering good LEVERAGE spots that we can take advantage of. That’s what I look for in this space.
How I structure my Notes:
Initial Thoughts: Before I read the NFL Edge I find time to do my own research and synthesize some of my thoughts about the game.
Tourney Winning Plays: Players who get enough volume and quality volume to post a tourney winning score on their own regardless of the game environment. Most DFS players will be building around these pieces.
Likely Game Environment and stacks within that environment to capitalize on in order to squeeze as many FPs as possible out of good games.
My Plays are the people I will be looking to roster from this game.
Leverage plays are written later in the week, like on Saturday, after I have gotten a full feel for the slate and know where I can gain leverage off of likely high ownership or -EV chalky spots.
Trying to Win another Tourney! (213.64 POINTS!!!) – Scroll down for a better description of how and why I structure my game notes in this manner.
Initial Thoughts: I mostly find myself wanting to punt on this game. NO is so spread out on offense that Olave is really the only player who has enough volume to post a decent score, not likely something you need to compete, but good enough to be on a roster. However, ATL will be trying to limit Mariota’s pass attempts (over 30 once this year in Week 1 vs. NO) and that does not allow for the game environment where NO will be passing much either. Note: With a new QB – Ridder – the low passing volume should continue. Both teams seem quite content to play slow. With Mark Ingram out and Kamara just not being very effective, it will be interesting to hear about what NO plans to do in order to move the ball. The reality is that too many people will likely be involved and that is bad for DFS.
At OWS, we look for the GAME ENVIRONMENTS that produce tourney winning scores. In addition, we need to know who the TOP PLAYS are (despite ownership) and not be afraid to play them! We look for ANGLES that allow us to fit the best plays into a lineup that is different. Finally, we need to be considering good LEVERAGE spots that we can take advantage of. That’s what I look for in this space.
How I structure my Notes:
Initial Thoughts: Before I read the NFL Edge I find time to do my own research and synthesize some of my thoughts about the game.
Tourney Winning Plays: Players who get enough volume and quality volume to post a tourney winning score on their own regardless of the game environment. Most DFS players will be building around these pieces.
Likely Game Environment and stacks within that environment to capitalize on in order to squeeze as many FPs as possible out of good games.
My Plays are the people I will be looking to roster from this game.
Leverage plays are written later in the week, like on Saturday, after I have gotten a full feel for the slate and know where I can gain leverage off of likely high ownership or -EV chalky spots.
Trying to Win another Tourney! (213.64 POINTS!!!) – Scroll down for a better description of how and why I structure my game notes in this manner.
Initial Thoughts: Jared Goff will not be on a tourney winning roster this week. NYJ D is legit good. NYJ will also be more likely to run the ball as a means of cementing a win in this game and DET is not awful on D. This should be a lower scoring game that is won by the team that can string efficient drives together. Not really a fantasy friendly game.
At OWS, we look for the GAME ENVIRONMENTS that produce tourney winning scores. In addition, we need to know who the TOP PLAYS are (despite ownership) and not be afraid to play them! We look for ANGLES that allow us to fit the best plays into a lineup that is different. Finally, we need to be considering good LEVERAGE spots that we can take advantage of. That’s what I look for in this space.
How I structure my Notes:
Initial Thoughts: Before I read the NFL Edge I find time to do my own research and synthesize some of my thoughts about the game.
Tourney Winning Plays: Players who get enough volume and quality volume to post a tourney winning score on their own regardless of the game environment. Most DFS players will be building around these pieces.
Likely Game Environment and stacks within that environment to capitalize on in order to squeeze as many FPs as possible out of good games.
My Plays are the people I will be looking to roster from this game.
Leverage plays are written later in the week, like on Saturday, after I have gotten a full feel for the slate and know where I can gain leverage off of likely high ownership or -EV chalky spots.
Trying to Win another Tourney! (213.64 POINTS!!!) – Scroll down for a better description of how and why I structure my game notes in this manner.
Initial Thoughts: DAL is in a good spot here. Many teams choose to pass more against the Jags than run. DAL would like to run the ball, but they also have some elite options in the passing game. DALs defense is really interesting in this spot as well, especially if they can grab a lead through the passing game and put some pressure on Trevor L. Lawrence has put together a few good games lately vs. the Titans and Ravens. DAL poses more of a threat (1st DVOA pass D) but if Lawrence can at least push JAX to compete in this spot, we could have a nice offensive explosion for the Cowboys passing game.
At OWS, we look for the GAME ENVIRONMENTS that produce tourney winning scores. In addition, we need to know who the TOP PLAYS are (despite ownership) and not be afraid to play them! We look for ANGLES that allow us to fit the best plays into a lineup that is different. Finally, we need to be considering good LEVERAGE spots that we can take advantage of. That’s what I look for in this space.
How I structure my Notes:
Initial Thoughts: Before I read the NFL Edge I find time to do my own research and synthesize some of my thoughts about the game.
Tourney Winning Plays: Players who get enough volume and quality volume to post a tourney winning score on their own regardless of the game environment. Most DFS players will be building around these pieces.
Likely Game Environment and stacks within that environment to capitalize on in order to squeeze as many FPs as possible out of good games.
My Plays are the people I will be looking to roster from this game.
Leverage plays are written later in the week, like on Saturday, after I have gotten a full feel for the slate and know where I can gain leverage off of likely high ownership or -EV chalky spots.
Trying to Win another Tourney! (213.64 POINTS!!!) – Scroll down for a better description of how and why I structure my game notes in this manner.
Initial Thoughts: Its the same story for KC. Mahomes will pass the ball and they have such a wide distribution of targets that its hard to know who to pair with him. Kelce? Juju? McKinnon? Pacheco? Toney? KC should easily light up the scoreboard so this could be a good spot to target. HOU will be playing in comeback mode and with their #1 RB out, they should be passing so maybe there is some cheap options like Moore or others who will get the targets.
Tourney Winning Plays: Mahomes could get in there as could Kelce if he ends up being the main target this week. If HOU is going to make sure KC marches the field, Kelce should get some of those targets and red zone opps.
Game Environment: KC will be scoring throughout the game. It might be FGs or it might be TDs and inevitably both. HOU will struggle to score and if you play KC you just hope HOU doesn’t take too much time off the clock in between KC possessions. Almost makes sense to have no bring bac if that’s the case.
My Plays: I could see a Mahomes-Kelce roster or a Mahomes – Juju as a starting point. There isn’t much point of an overstack, just take the guaranteed points between Kelce or Juju.
Leverage Plays:
At OWS, we look for the GAME ENVIRONMENTS that produce tourney winning scores. In addition, we need to know who the TOP PLAYS are (despite ownership) and not be afraid to play them! We look for ANGLES that allow us to fit the best plays into a lineup that is different. Finally, we need to be considering good LEVERAGE spots that we can take advantage of. That’s what I look for in this space.
How I structure my Notes:
Initial Thoughts: Before I read the NFL Edge I find time to do my own research and synthesize some of my thoughts about the game.
Tourney Winning Plays: Players who get enough volume and quality volume to post a tourney winning score on their own regardless of the game environment. Most DFS players will be building around these pieces.
Likely Game Environment and stacks within that environment to capitalize on in order to squeeze as many FPs as possible out of good games.
My Plays are the people I will be looking to roster from this game.
Leverage plays are written later in the week, like on Saturday, after I have gotten a full feel for the slate and know where I can gain leverage off of likely high ownership or -EV chalky spots.
Trying to Win another Tourney! (213.64 POINTS!!!) – Scroll down for a better description of how and why I structure my game notes in this manner.
Initial Thoughts: The Bears D is nothing special and has no way of stopping the Eagles. CHI will be able to move the ball on the ground, but I can’t imagine it will be enough to compete with PHI’s offense. Fields will need some passing yards (will garbage time allow for this?) to reach his ceiling, so Hurts + PHI WRs is likely a better play and makes Fields obsolete on this slate since they are only $800 apart in price.
At OWS, we look for the GAME ENVIRONMENTS that produce tourney winning scores. In addition, we need to know who the TOP PLAYS are (despite ownership) and not be afraid to play them! We look for ANGLES that allow us to fit the best plays into a lineup that is different. Finally, we need to be considering good LEVERAGE spots that we can take advantage of. That’s what I look for in this space.
How I structure my Notes:
Initial Thoughts: Before I read the NFL Edge I find time to do my own research and synthesize some of my thoughts about the game.
Tourney Winning Plays: Players who get enough volume and quality volume to post a tourney winning score on their own regardless of the game environment. Most DFS players will be building around these pieces.
Likely Game Environment and stacks within that environment to capitalize on in order to squeeze as many FPs as possible out of good games.
My Plays are the people I will be looking to roster from this game.
Leverage plays are written later in the week, like on Saturday, after I have gotten a full feel for the slate and know where I can gain leverage off of likely high ownership or -EV chalky spots.
Trying to Win another Tourney! (213.64 POINTS!!!) – Scroll down for a better description of how and why I structure my game notes in this manner.
Initial Thoughts: This looks like an interesting game, but not for DFS. Najee Harris is the closest thing to a high volume player on these teams. CAR has a very split backfield. Neither passing attack is prolific and no one is likely to get more than 8 targets (maybe Diontae Johnson sees more at a very low aDot) in a game that pits two good defenses playing against bad offense. No interest here.
At OWS, we look for the GAME ENVIRONMENTS that produce tourney winning scores. In addition, we need to know who the TOP PLAYS are (despite ownership) and not be afraid to play them! We look for ANGLES that allow us to fit the best plays into a lineup that is different. Finally, we need to be considering good LEVERAGE spots that we can take advantage of. That’s what I look for in this space.
How I structure my Notes:
Initial Thoughts: Before I read the NFL Edge I find time to do my own research and synthesize some of my thoughts about the game.
Tourney Winning Plays: Players who get enough volume and quality volume to post a tourney winning score on their own regardless of the game environment. Most DFS players will be building around these pieces.
Likely Game Environment and stacks within that environment to capitalize on in order to squeeze as many FPs as possible out of good games.
My Plays are the people I will be looking to roster from this game.
Leverage plays are written later in the week, like on Saturday, after I have gotten a full feel for the slate and know where I can gain leverage off of likely high ownership or -EV chalky spots.
Trying to Win a Small Slate – Scroll down for a better description of how and why I structure my game notes in this manner.
Initial Thoughts: 16, 17, 19 are the point totals for the IND offense the last 3 weeks. Not horrible, but they also allowed 17, 24, and 54. No matter the game environment, IND is struggling. THIS IS NOT LIKELY TO BE A SHOOTOUT OF ANY KIND! IND are coming off a bye week, but in a lost season I’m not sure as a team that the bye week will matter much. MIN is a top tier team and should have no problem winning this home game, but are there any angles for DFS? The most likely outcome is that MIN continues to work their pass game with some level of success and get stymied by the run matchup. In this case TJ Hock, Jefferson and Thielen will get plenty of targets and even without the TDs, they can rack up points for receptions and Jefferson is likely to go over the 100 yard bonus. IND will find some success against a weak pass rush, but putting up points without a strong run game has been difficult for them. I think this game will underwhelm and there are not a lot of paths to a high scoring affair or even a blowout.
Tourney Winning Plays: Justin Jefferson (like Tyreek Hill) has a 30% target share overall, but in weeks 12 and 9 when they faced good run Ds with heavy zone concepts like IND plans to be, Jefferson saw an increase to 50% target share. Its likely Jefferson is counted on more than usual in this spot.
State of the Slate: One major decision point for this slate is whether to play Jefferson or Hill. Diggs target share doesn’t really increase (actually decreases) in lower total games. I would expect Diggs to be higher owned than the other two, and it might make sense to jam in both Hill and Jefferson. If not playing Diggs it makes sense to also fade Josh Allen which would point me towards a lower priced QB of whom there are many interesting ones. Huntley does not seem to be in concussion protocol according to his coaches who will be calling plays and he ran 9 times before exiting the game. Matt Ryan will be in pass mode vs. the Vikings who are not great at rushing the passer (4 sacks in last 4 games) and Watson is in play as well. The best RB situation is probably Taylor, but his team could be leaning on the pass eventually, so you don’t have to roster him and his chances of hurting you are not great. Chubb is an interesting case for people who want to fade the BAL offense. He is at home, but Watson’s presence hinders him a bit. He should go pretty low owned, but again I don’t see many paths to him putting this slate out of reach. With so many weak RBs, you could pair the BAL RBs together and hope they just dominate the run game there. James Cook, Mostert, and Singletary all have similar roles and would be cheaper ways to aim for 15 points. Dalvin Cook will likely be high owned and he is facing a tough run D as well. Not much to love at RB, but also not many plays that can kill you – roster whoever you want at RB. I dont know why you would play anyone but Andrews, Hockenson or Njoku at TE. Those three just have way more upside in good spots. Cheaper WRs from IND (Pittman and Campbell), DPJ (CLE), Duvernay/Robinson (BAL), Sherfield (MIA-target share is pretty impressive for such a low price) and Bills (G Davis, McKenzie) round out the choices most people will be looking to.
My Plays: I like the high priced WRs in Jefferson and Hill. I will be playing at least one and possibly both. This will likely keep me off Allen/Diggs rosters. I don’t like Tua vs. BUF and want some correlation (QB/WR) so Cousins is a natural fit as is Ryan + WR, Watson + WR/TE, Huntley + Andrews. A 3 max team where I roll one of each seems like a good play to me.
Leverage Plays:
At OWS, we look for the GAME ENVIRONMENTS that produce tourney winning scores. In addition, we need to know who the TOP PLAYS are (despite ownership) and not be afraid to play them! We look for ANGLES that allow us to fit the best plays into a lineup that is different. Finally, we need to be considering good LEVERAGE spots that we can take advantage of. That’s what I look for in this space.
How I structure my Notes:
Initial Thoughts: Before I read the NFL Edge I find time to do my own research and synthesize some of my thoughts about the game.
Tourney Winning Plays: Players who get enough volume and quality volume to post a tourney winning score on their own regardless of the game environment. Most DFS players will be building around these pieces.
Likely Game Environment and stacks within that environment to capitalize on in order to squeeze as many FPs as possible out of good games.
My Plays are the people I will be looking to roster from this game.
Leverage plays are written later in the week, like on Saturday, after I have gotten a full feel for the slate and know where I can gain leverage off of likely high ownership or -EV chalky spots.
Trying to Win a Small Slate – Scroll down for a better description of how and why I structure my game notes in this manner.
Initial Thoughts: We will have to see what QBs are healthy for this game, but the reality is that BAL has the run game and D to manage a game like this. The most likely story is that both teams start out with the goal of dominating the run game – both good offensively (BAL also good on run D) – and whoever falls behind (likely CLE) will have to turn to the passing game. The game would likely underwhelm if this were the case as # of plays would be low, BAL would spread out its touches/TD chances, and CLE WRs/TEs (namely Njoku, Cooper, DPJ) would get modest volume. Alternatively, BAL could recognize that CLE has a decent weapon in Deshaun Watson going into his 3rd game with the team. This could be more of a back and forth affair and/or BAL could up their aggressiveness realizing that Watson can engineer comebacks and does so regularly. This would provide a much more palatable DFS game.
At OWS, we look for the GAME ENVIRONMENTS that produce tourney winning scores. In addition, we need to know who the TOP PLAYS are (despite ownership) and not be afraid to play them! We look for ANGLES that allow us to fit the best plays into a lineup that is different. Finally, we need to be considering good LEVERAGE spots that we can take advantage of. That’s what I look for in this space.
How I structure my Notes:
Initial Thoughts: Before I read the NFL Edge I find time to do my own research and synthesize some of my thoughts about the game.
Tourney Winning Plays: Players who get enough volume and quality volume to post a tourney winning score on their own regardless of the game environment. Most DFS players will be building around these pieces.
Likely Game Environment and stacks within that environment to capitalize on in order to squeeze as many FPs as possible out of good games.
My Plays are the people I will be looking to roster from this game.
Leverage plays are written later in the week, like on Saturday, after I have gotten a full feel for the slate and know where I can gain leverage off of likely high ownership or -EV chalky spots.
Trying to Win a Small Slate – Scroll down for a better description of how and why I structure my game notes in this manner.
Initial Thoughts: This is the marquee matchup of the day. Similar to Thanksgiving day when BUF played DET, this game looks pretty appetizing for DFS. The only problem is that the Bills D has started to play up to their potential with guys getting healthy and their offense has the same abilities as LAC to control the time of possession and keep MIA off the field. Josh Allen will be able to roll out and find ways to expose the MIA secondary. BUF’s run game has gained a lot of confidence and while they like to leave the ball in Allen’s hands, the run game will be a weapon as a means of keeping MIA off the field and lengthening drives for BUF. Meanwhile, the BUF D can absolutely contend with the MIA pass game. It looks like BUF will have the tools to maintain possession in this game and create a lot of scoring opportunities and MIA will have to find a way to consistently hit Hill/Waddle for chunk gains. Both sides do have explosive players and this game could absolutely smash if MIA is able to push the tempo.
NEW*** Avoiding biases/Challenging preconceived notions: This game looks the most appealing because of the ability of these two teams in the passing game. Both teams are pass heavy so how could a low scoring game transpire? DET, CHI, CLE, HOU….MIA faced those teams all in a row – did that challenge the way we think about MIA and their abilities? Tyreek Hill also challenges our thinking in this spot because he can hit for a high DFS score (30+) even without a high team total.
Tourney Winning Plays: Josh Allen is involved in all aspects of this Bills offense. Tyreek Hill has 50% of the target share in the last two weeks in games MIA has trailed (and vs. solid Ds) which is especially pertinent this week.
Game Environment:
My Plays:
Leverage Plays:
At OWS, we look for the GAME ENVIRONMENTS that produce tourney winning scores. In addition, we need to know who the TOP PLAYS are (despite ownership) and not be afraid to play them! We look for ANGLES that allow us to fit the best plays into a lineup that is different. Finally, we need to be considering good LEVERAGE spots that we can take advantage of. That’s what I look for in this space.
How I structure my Notes:
Initial Thoughts: Before I read the NFL Edge I find time to do my own research and synthesize some of my thoughts about the game.
Tourney Winning Plays: Players who get enough volume and quality volume to post a tourney winning score on their own regardless of the game environment. Most DFS players will be building around these pieces.
Likely Game Environment and stacks within that environment to capitalize on in order to squeeze as many FPs as possible out of good games.
My Plays are the people I will be looking to roster from this game.
Leverage plays are written later in the week, like on Saturday, after I have gotten a full feel for the slate and know where I can gain leverage off of likely high ownership or -EV chalky spots.
Trying to Win another Tourney! (213.64 POINTS!!!) – Scroll down for a better description of how and why I structure my game notes in this manner.
Initial Thoughts: My initial reaction is that this game is a stay away on the full slate. The Chiefs face a difficult pass D on the road and they are a hard time to get right anyways. The Broncos are just not good. Chiefs D may be the way to go?
At OWS, we look for the GAME ENVIRONMENTS that produce tourney winning scores. In addition, we need to know who the TOP PLAYS are (despite ownership) and not be afraid to play them! We look for ANGLES that allow us to fit the best plays into a lineup that is different. Finally, we need to be considering good LEVERAGE spots that we can take advantage of. That’s what I look for in this space.
How I structure my Notes:
Initial Thoughts: Before I read the NFL Edge I find time to do my own research and synthesize some of my thoughts about the game.
Tourney Winning Plays: Players who get enough volume and quality volume to post a tourney winning score on their own regardless of the game environment. Most DFS players will be building around these pieces.
Likely Game Environment and stacks within that environment to capitalize on in order to squeeze as many FPs as possible out of good games.
My Plays are the people I will be looking to roster from this game.
Leverage plays are written later in the week, like on Saturday, after I have gotten a full feel for the slate and know where I can gain leverage off of likely high ownership or -EV chalky spots.
Trying to Win another Tourney! (213.64 POINTS!!!) – Scroll down for a better description of how and why I structure my game notes in this manner.
Initial Thoughts: Who are the Panthers? Well, the one decent offense they have played in the last 6 weeks was CIN and they allowed 41 points. Otherwise they have been facing some pretty terrible offensive teams that are totally okay playing slow. Who are the Seahawks? Well, they are a team that recently travelled to play in Europe, came back to lose a crazy OT game to Josh Jacobs and handled a depleted (but strong run D) LAR team last week. Practice time has been at a bit of a premium I’m guessing. The Seahawks (and Pete Carroll) are a team that is taught to play each game according to their particular style of play and hopefully they perfect that style towards the end of the season – a style that keeps them competing in every game. It sometimes makes games against lesser opponents closer. That’s important here because the Panthers are certainly a lesser opponent. CAR will allow SEA to score a lot of points if SEA is playing in such a way. SEA does not accumulate a lot of plays per game (they don’t play fast) but CAR is last in that category. SEA will be able to control the ball early in this game. SEA will be able to force CAR into turnovers or punts early in this game. SEA should then be in control and if CAR plays up to expectations, they will allow SEA to score a bunch of points. SEA will likely allow CAR to continuously come back (or at least drive the field and accumulate yards until they get into the red zone), they are not likely to put the game out of reach.
Tourney Winning Plays: It wouldn’t surprise anyone if Geno Smith nears 5x his salary in this game. Smith will almost certainly bring a WR with him. Lockett is cheaper and healthier.
Game Environment:
My Plays: Geno Smith + Lockett (or DK) and I’m thinking of stacking the cheap RB as well. It wouldn’t surprise me if Tony Jones Jr. gets 15+ touches and some receptions should SEA be without Williams and others. DJ Moore would be an obvious bring back, but his volume is lacking in most games. I would hope for a spike here.
Leverage Plays:
At OWS, we look for the GAME ENVIRONMENTS that produce tourney winning scores. In addition, we need to know who the TOP PLAYS are (despite ownership) and not be afraid to play them! We look for ANGLES that allow us to fit the best plays into a lineup that is different. Finally, we need to be considering good LEVERAGE spots that we can take advantage of. That’s what I look for in this space.
How I structure my Notes:
Initial Thoughts: Before I read the NFL Edge I find time to do my own research and synthesize some of my thoughts about the game.
Tourney Winning Plays: Players who get enough volume and quality volume to post a tourney winning score on their own regardless of the game environment. Most DFS players will be building around these pieces.
Likely Game Environment and stacks within that environment to capitalize on in order to squeeze as many FPs as possible out of good games.
My Plays are the people I will be looking to roster from this game.
Leverage plays are written later in the week, like on Saturday, after I have gotten a full feel for the slate and know where I can gain leverage off of likely high ownership or -EV chalky spots.
Trying to Win another Tourney! (213.64 POINTS!!!) – Scroll down for a better description of how and why I structure my game notes in this manner.
Initial Thoughts: Both of these teams would prefer to run the ball, but are not averse to passing. Both Ds provide their opponents with enough reasons to simply commit to the pass. We have seen plenty of teams pass heavily against TEN and against JAX. This has the makings of a pass heavy game script both ways. This game environment smells like a shootout waiting to happen as long as JAX can jump out to some sort of lead. TEN in the lead would spell trouble for this game environment. The pass catchers are also fairly cheap. Good matchups for WRs and low prices in a game where both teams will find success in the pass game more so than running. Check.
At OWS, we look for the GAME ENVIRONMENTS that produce tourney winning scores. In addition, we need to know who the TOP PLAYS are (despite ownership) and not be afraid to play them! We look for ANGLES that allow us to fit the best plays into a lineup that is different. Finally, we need to be considering good LEVERAGE spots that we can take advantage of. That’s what I look for in this space.
How I structure my Notes:
Initial Thoughts: Before I read the NFL Edge I find time to do my own research and synthesize some of my thoughts about the game.
Tourney Winning Plays: Players who get enough volume and quality volume to post a tourney winning score on their own regardless of the game environment. Most DFS players will be building around these pieces.
Likely Game Environment and stacks within that environment to capitalize on in order to squeeze as many FPs as possible out of good games.
My Plays are the people I will be looking to roster from this game.
Leverage plays are written later in the week, like on Saturday, after I have gotten a full feel for the slate and know where I can gain leverage off of likely high ownership or -EV chalky spots.
Trying to Win another Tourney! (213.64 POINTS!!!) – Scroll down for a better description of how and why I structure my game notes in this manner.
Initial Thoughts: BAL should have the backup QB, Lamar lite, Tyler Huntley. At $5,500 he can probably do here nearly what Lamar can do. LJs highest scoring day since week 3 has been 24. The team is succeeding with slow pace of play and a dominant run game. No reason that should change much here unless THIS is the week PITs offense finally puts something together….? If PIT can create some early scoring opportunities and push BAL to get aggressive with Huntley-Andrews, this game could provide a decent scoring environment. It would look something like Pickens hitting on some big throws early, Huntley possibly turning the ball over and allowing PIT to go up 14-0 or 13-0 in the first quarter. BAL might pick up the pace and while Huntley hones in on a 100 yard rushing and 200 passing day (21 points right there) Pickens could be at 3/80/1 by halftime (17 points)
Tourney Winning Plays: Tyler Huntley (5.5k) is going to get 7-10 rushing attempts and 30+ passes most often in this game. PIT has a good defense, but it is very possible that a) BAL D shuts down PIT and is able to score enough points for Huntley to matter in tourneys or b) PIT jumps out to a lead and the pace of play speeds up a bit, helping Huntley accumulate points.
Game Environment: BAL likes to play slow if they are out in front. That type of game environment would really kill any DFS value here. Any other game environment (close game, PIT in front) would likely produce enough DFS points to matter. The ceiling for scoring isn’t that high in most environments.
My Plays: I will be looking at Huntley + 1s (Robinson, Duvernay or Andrews) likely paired with a PIT WR (Pickens with the big play upside is my favorite).
Leverage Plays:
At OWS, we look for the GAME ENVIRONMENTS that produce tourney winning scores. In addition, we need to know who the TOP PLAYS are (despite ownership) and not be afraid to play them! We look for ANGLES that allow us to fit the best plays into a lineup that is different. Finally, we need to be considering good LEVERAGE spots that we can take advantage of. That’s what I look for in this space.
How I structure my Notes:
Initial Thoughts: Before I read the NFL Edge I find time to do my own research and synthesize some of my thoughts about the game.
Tourney Winning Plays: Players who get enough volume and quality volume to post a tourney winning score on their own regardless of the game environment. Most DFS players will be building around these pieces.
Likely Game Environment and stacks within that environment to capitalize on in order to squeeze as many FPs as possible out of good games.
My Plays are the people I will be looking to roster from this game.
Leverage plays are written later in the week, like on Saturday, after I have gotten a full feel for the slate and know where I can gain leverage off of likely high ownership or -EV chalky spots.
Trying to Win another Tourney! (213.64 POINTS!!!) – Scroll down for a better description of how and why I structure my game notes in this manner.
Initial Thoughts: The NYG great offense has sputtered quite a few times this year. Perhaps being led by D Jones and Saquon B is not that dynamic. The Eagles have multiple weapons and should use pass/run and QB scrambles to move the ball and put up points. I don’t like choosing players from games at NYG – they are never high scoring. D Jones however can always put up a 30 pointer with the help of his rushing ability. I would expect an in control PHI team that doesn’t have to push it much through the air to score.
At OWS, we look for the GAME ENVIRONMENTS that produce tourney winning scores. In addition, we need to know who the TOP PLAYS are (despite ownership) and not be afraid to play them! We look for ANGLES that allow us to fit the best plays into a lineup that is different. Finally, we need to be considering good LEVERAGE spots that we can take advantage of. That’s what I look for in this space.
How I structure my Notes:
Initial Thoughts: Before I read the NFL Edge I find time to do my own research and synthesize some of my thoughts about the game.
Tourney Winning Plays: Players who get enough volume and quality volume to post a tourney winning score on their own regardless of the game environment. Most DFS players will be building around these pieces.
Likely Game Environment and stacks within that environment to capitalize on in order to squeeze as many FPs as possible out of good games.
My Plays are the people I will be looking to roster from this game.
Leverage plays are written later in the week, like on Saturday, after I have gotten a full feel for the slate and know where I can gain leverage off of likely high ownership or -EV chalky spots.
Trying to Win another Tourney! (213.64 POINTS!!!) – Scroll down for a better description of how and why I structure my game notes in this manner.
Initial Thoughts: The Lions at home have been money recently. They are emerging as a good team and I think we are behind the curve if we are just starting to realize that now. If Goff is given time to throw – and his offensive line plus MIN D should provide that – his offense will thrive. MIN is a great offensive team with a small distribution of targets and touches on offense. They should have success here. I would predict a DET win in this spot, 35-31 kinda score.
At OWS, we look for the GAME ENVIRONMENTS that produce tourney winning scores. In addition, we need to know who the TOP PLAYS are (despite ownership) and not be afraid to play them! We look for ANGLES that allow us to fit the best plays into a lineup that is different. Finally, we need to be considering good LEVERAGE spots that we can take advantage of. That’s what I look for in this space.
How I structure my Notes:
Initial Thoughts: Before I read the NFL Edge I find time to do my own research and synthesize some of my thoughts about the game.
Tourney Winning Plays: Players who get enough volume and quality volume to post a tourney winning score on their own regardless of the game environment. Most DFS players will be building around these pieces.
Likely Game Environment and stacks within that environment to capitalize on in order to squeeze as many FPs as possible out of good games.
My Plays are the people I will be looking to roster from this game.
Leverage plays are written later in the week, like on Saturday, after I have gotten a full feel for the slate and know where I can gain leverage off of likely high ownership or -EV chalky spots.
Trying to Win another Tourney! (213.64 POINTS!!!) – Scroll down for a better description of how and why I structure my game notes in this manner.
Initial Thoughts: Cowboys crush is the only possible option here. It will most likely be through their two running backs, but it also could be through the air.
At OWS, we look for the GAME ENVIRONMENTS that produce tourney winning scores. In addition, we need to know who the TOP PLAYS are (despite ownership) and not be afraid to play them! We look for ANGLES that allow us to fit the best plays into a lineup that is different. Finally, we need to be considering good LEVERAGE spots that we can take advantage of. That’s what I look for in this space.
How I structure my Notes:
Initial Thoughts: Before I read the NFL Edge I find time to do my own research and synthesize some of my thoughts about the game.
Tourney Winning Plays: Players who get enough volume and quality volume to post a tourney winning score on their own regardless of the game environment. Most DFS players will be building around these pieces.
Likely Game Environment and stacks within that environment to capitalize on in order to squeeze as many FPs as possible out of good games.
My Plays are the people I will be looking to roster from this game.
Leverage plays are written later in the week, like on Saturday, after I have gotten a full feel for the slate and know where I can gain leverage off of likely high ownership or -EV chalky spots.
Trying to Win another Tourney! (213.64 POINTS!!!) – Scroll down for a better description of how and why I structure my game notes in this manner.
Initial Thoughts: CIN is back on top and they are going to go into this game as a heavy favorite. CLE has a competitive running game, but I just don’t think they will be able to stop a healthy CIN offense. CLE will likely be passing in catch up mode. It is possible CLE has success – they have some weapons – and this game turns into a bit of a shootout. It is also highly possible CLE controls the clock or vice versa and the total plays come under the expectation and limit the offensive goodness.
NEW*** Avoiding biases/Challenging preconceived notions: Watson may have looked bad, but he is far behind the players who have been active for 13 weeks. Still, he is a professional and his second week of the season is when things will start making a little more sense. I expect Watson’s play to make a little more sense this week, meaning he should push CIN on the scoreboard, at least a little bit.
Tourney Winning Plays: Joe Burrow has put up tourney winning scores multiple times this season. He is facing a bad CLE D and should probably be in consideration every week.
Game Environment: It would be surprising if Burrow and co. did not have success again this week, but its a rivalry game in division and CLE stopped CIN last time. Still, this is a new game and CIN is at full strength. They should do well. CLE likewise has a shot at doing well, but the play of their QB is unpredictable this new into his tenure as starting QB.
My Plays:
Leverage Plays:
At OWS, we look for the GAME ENVIRONMENTS that produce tourney winning scores. In addition, we need to know who the TOP PLAYS are (despite ownership) and not be afraid to play them! We look for ANGLES that allow us to fit the best plays into a lineup that is different. Finally, we need to be considering good LEVERAGE spots that we can take advantage of. That’s what I look for in this space.
How I structure my Notes:
Initial Thoughts: Before I read the NFL Edge I find time to do my own research and synthesize some of my thoughts about the game.
Tourney Winning Plays: Players who get enough volume and quality volume to post a tourney winning score on their own regardless of the game environment. Most DFS players will be building around these pieces.
Likely Game Environment and stacks within that environment to capitalize on in order to squeeze as many FPs as possible out of good games.
My Plays are the people I will be looking to roster from this game.
Leverage plays are written later in the week, like on Saturday, after I have gotten a full feel for the slate and know where I can gain leverage off of likely high ownership or -EV chalky spots.
Trying to Win another Tourney! (213.64 POINTS!!!) – Scroll down for a better description of how and why I structure my game notes in this manner.
Initial Thoughts: The Bills D is getting back to their great/elite status with a run first, but pass heavy if the need be Jets offense. Mike White had pretty good games vs. CHI and with big volume vs. MIN. I don’t expect that to happen again. BUF will have plenty of opportunities to attack the NYJ tough D, but its the Bills and Josh Allen…they are going to do their thing.
Tourney Winning Plays: Garrett Wilson, if NYJ are indeed trailing and needing to pass, will get 8-10+ targets and has the ability to do a lot of damage in terms of yards gained with those targets. The Bills are a tough opponent, but at Wilson’s price (5.9k) he should be considered. No one would be surprised in Josh Allen puts up 40 points here and if so he is likely bringing one of his pass catchers with him. He is matchup proof, but the floor is also a mid 20s score which would make winning a tourney difficult.
Game Environment: The Bills are likely to utilize all their weapons to drive the field and put up TDs in the red zone. NYJ will quickly be forced to the air (BUF rush D is also good) and it will be hit or miss with their success. It is hard to believe that NYJ will be efficient enough to continuously beat this BUF D. On the other hand, BUF has that ability. If BUF fails to score, this game will be low scoring and likely disappoint.
My Plays: I will look at rostering Josh Allen and 1 WR with a Wilson bring back. I’m not sure that’s a particularly sharp roster, but it can definitely win you a tournament. I will also look at playing James Cook on his own. He is obviously a big part of this offense’s plans moving forward and he frees up salary at other positions.
Leverage Plays:
At OWS, we look for the GAME ENVIRONMENTS that produce tourney winning scores. In addition, we need to know who the TOP PLAYS are (despite ownership) and not be afraid to play them! We look for ANGLES that allow us to fit the best plays into a lineup that is different. Finally, we need to be considering good LEVERAGE spots that we can take advantage of. That’s what I look for in this space.
How I structure my Notes:
Initial Thoughts: Before I read the NFL Edge I find time to do my own research and synthesize some of my thoughts about the game.
Tourney Winning Plays: Players who get enough volume and quality volume to post a tourney winning score on their own regardless of the game environment. Most DFS players will be building around these pieces.
Likely Game Environment and stacks within that environment to capitalize on in order to squeeze as many FPs as possible out of good games.
My Plays are the people I will be looking to roster from this game.
Leverage plays are written later in the week, like on Saturday, after I have gotten a full feel for the slate and know where I can gain leverage off of likely high ownership or -EV chalky spots.
Trying to Win a Showdown – Scroll down for a better description of how and why I structure my game notes in this manner.
Initial Thoughts: The Rams are going to get better despite the major losses on offense. Their offense had become pretty one dimensional anyways. LV has a bad defense we keep hearing, mostly in the passing game department, but the run D isn’t very good either. LAR should find ways to move the ball and stay competitive from an offensive standpoint. LV will compete with the help of Jacobs (injury concerns and a short week lead me to want to fade him here) and Davante. LAR QB is averaged 12 yards per completion last week.
At OWS, we look for the GAME ENVIRONMENTS that produce tourney winning scores. In addition, we need to know who the TOP PLAYS are (despite ownership) and not be afraid to play them! We look for ANGLES that allow us to fit the best plays into a lineup that is different. Finally, we need to be considering good LEVERAGE spots that we can take advantage of. That’s what I look for in this space.
How I structure my Notes:
Initial Thoughts: Before I read the NFL Edge I find time to do my own research and synthesize some of my thoughts about the game.
Tourney Winning Plays: Players who get enough volume and quality volume to post a tourney winning score on their own regardless of the game environment. Most DFS players will be building around these pieces.
Likely Game Environment and stacks within that environment to capitalize on in order to squeeze as many FPs as possible out of good games.
My Plays are the people I will be looking to roster from this game.
Leverage plays are written later in the week, like on Saturday, after I have gotten a full feel for the slate and know where I can gain leverage off of likely high ownership or -EV chalky spots.
Trying to Win another Tourney! (213.64 POINTS!!!) – Scroll down for a better description of how and why I structure my game notes in this manner.
Initial Thoughts: Both offenses are capable in this game and neither defense is really that good. LV would love to exploit the bad running D of LA and LA would love to exploit the bad pass D of LV. This is a game where both teams are poised to excel offensively. We know the Raiders will look to Jacobs/Adams as a way to move the ball and score TDs. LAC has a good cast of pass catchers and all should be involved in this potentially high scoring affair.
NEW*** Avoiding biases/Challenging preconceived notions: Are there any paths to a lower scoring affair. You can look to the LAC-ATL game where ATL ran the ball 35 times and essentially shortened the game. LV could do just that.
Tourney Winning Plays:
Game Environment:
My Plays:
Leverage Plays:
At OWS, we look for the GAME ENVIRONMENTS that produce tourney winning scores. In addition, we need to know who the TOP PLAYS are (despite ownership) and not be afraid to play them! We look for ANGLES that allow us to fit the best plays into a lineup that is different. Finally, we need to be considering good LEVERAGE spots that we can take advantage of. That’s what I look for in this space.
How I structure my Notes:
Initial Thoughts: Before I read the NFL Edge I find time to do my own research and synthesize some of my thoughts about the game.
Tourney Winning Plays: Players who get enough volume and quality volume to post a tourney winning score on their own regardless of the game environment. Most DFS players will be building around these pieces.
Likely Game Environment and stacks within that environment to capitalize on in order to squeeze as many FPs as possible out of good games.
My Plays are the people I will be looking to roster from this game.
Leverage plays are written later in the week, like on Saturday, after I have gotten a full feel for the slate and know where I can gain leverage off of likely high ownership or -EV chalky spots.
Trying to Win another Tourney! (213.64 POINTS!!!) – Scroll down for a better description of how and why I structure my game notes in this manner.
Initial Thoughts: This looks like a game that a majority of rosters will be “accounting for” as they make their lineups. Both teams operate pass heavy attacks and both have defenses that can be exploited in the pass game. While KC is always pass heavy based on their QB and offensive weapons, CIN seems to take what the defense gives them and adopt to the game environment. KC spreads the ball out well between all of their pass catchers, but Mahomes/Kelce is usually heavily involved in the game plan. CIN will focus on Burrow to Chase/Higgins/Boyd and run the ball plenty with Joe Mixon (unless they are getting beat badly). As JM reminds us all the time, this game will go under the 52 total half the time. If neither team jumps out to a lead it could take till the 4th quarter for either team to get aggressive. This game does set up well for a shootout. It is not hard to imagine Mahomes getting on a roll or Burrows hitting some big plays to Chase and forcing the other team to up the aggressiveness. It is obviously a good spot, but you are spending 16k to get the guys you likely need on KC and adding 8k to get Chase. You would really need each of those players to put up 30+ to be in the hunt for a tourney winner. The game would really need to go off and might require a big over stack to vault you up the standings in a game with highly owned players.
At OWS, we look for the GAME ENVIRONMENTS that produce tourney winning scores. In addition, we need to know who the TOP PLAYS are (despite ownership) and not be afraid to play them! We look for ANGLES that allow us to fit the best plays into a lineup that is different. Finally, we need to be considering good LEVERAGE spots that we can take advantage of. That’s what I look for in this space.
How I structure my Notes:
Initial Thoughts: Before I read the NFL Edge I find time to do my own research and synthesize some of my thoughts about the game.
Tourney Winning Plays: Players who get enough volume and quality volume to post a tourney winning score on their own regardless of the game environment. Most DFS players will be building around these pieces.
Likely Game Environment and stacks within that environment to capitalize on in order to squeeze as many FPs as possible out of good games.
My Plays are the people I will be looking to roster from this game.
Leverage plays are written later in the week, like on Saturday, after I have gotten a full feel for the slate and know where I can gain leverage off of likely high ownership or -EV chalky spots.
Trying to Win another Tourney! (213.64 POINTS!!!) – Scroll down for a better description of how and why I structure my game notes in this manner.
Initial Thoughts: This could be a fun game. SF has all the weapons to compete with the MIA weapons. SF does have a good offense, but I wonder if they are able to slow down MIA. Again, we are going to be betting on which elite athletes can perform against a tough defense. The ceiling is still the same for Hill, Waddle, Tua and SF has a lot of players who will put up big scores if the volume is there. Basically, if Hill and Tua can hit some big plays or better yet, keep feeding that connection, players like CMC, Kittle, Deebo, Aiyuk will be good bets for big scores.
At OWS, we look for the GAME ENVIRONMENTS that produce tourney winning scores. In addition, we need to know who the TOP PLAYS are (despite ownership) and not be afraid to play them! We look for ANGLES that allow us to fit the best plays into a lineup that is different. Finally, we need to be considering good LEVERAGE spots that we can take advantage of. That’s what I look for in this space.
How I structure my Notes:
Initial Thoughts: Before I read the NFL Edge I find time to do my own research and synthesize some of my thoughts about the game.
Tourney Winning Plays: Players who get enough volume and quality volume to post a tourney winning score on their own regardless of the game environment. Most DFS players will be building around these pieces.
Likely Game Environment and stacks within that environment to capitalize on in order to squeeze as many FPs as possible out of good games.
My Plays are the people I will be looking to roster from this game.
Leverage plays are written later in the week, like on Saturday, after I have gotten a full feel for the slate and know where I can gain leverage off of likely high ownership or -EV chalky spots.
Trying to Win another Tourney! (213.64 POINTS!!!) – Scroll down for a better description of how and why I structure my game notes in this manner.
Initial Thoughts: The Seahawks are going to have to execute complete drives in order to score. They have the tools to do it, but they have to avoid penalties, mistakes, bad luck. It’s not going to be easy for the Hawks to score in this game. Meanwhile, LAR are not a good offense so it shouldn’t be too hard to stop them. Low scoring game?
Game Environment: slow and no incentive for Hawks to keep playing when they have the lead.
My Plays: none
Leverage Plays:
At OWS, we look for the GAME ENVIRONMENTS that produce tourney winning scores. In addition, we need to know who the TOP PLAYS are (despite ownership) and not be afraid to play them! We look for ANGLES that allow us to fit the best plays into a lineup that is different. Finally, we need to be considering good LEVERAGE spots that we can take advantage of. That’s what I look for in this space.
How I structure my Notes:
Initial Thoughts: Before I read the NFL Edge I find time to do my own research and synthesize some of my thoughts about the game.
Tourney Winning Plays: Players who get enough volume and quality volume to post a tourney winning score on their own regardless of the game environment. Most DFS players will be building around these pieces.
Likely Game Environment and stacks within that environment to capitalize on in order to squeeze as many FPs as possible out of good games.
My Plays are the people I will be looking to roster from this game.
Leverage plays are written later in the week, like on Saturday, after I have gotten a full feel for the slate and know where I can gain leverage off of likely high ownership or -EV chalky spots.
Trying to Win another Tourney! (213.64 POINTS!!!) – Scroll down for a better description of how and why I structure my game notes in this manner.
Initial Thoughts: Titans will run it and push the Eagles to defend that run. PHI is going to be forced to throw to win, but they should be able to exploit TENs defense in multiple ways. They just need to be precise. TEN has a better offense with Burks who is still only $4,600. AJ Brown is an elite athlete who I am sure wants to show off his new team to his old teammates. This is yet another game that could be higher scoring if these elite athletes can perform.
Tourney Winning Plays: Devonta Smith has dominated the target share since Goedert has been out. He is priced recently and if Hurts does throw 35+ times it seems very likely Smith is at 10+ targets. He gets red zone targets as well.
Game Environment: I am assuming the Eagles will try to attack mainly through the air or at least tilt pass heavy. They have 2 good WRs and Hurts can still scramble off the pass plays. Titans are more easily attacked through the air. PHI has to fix their run D in order for this game to provide enough fantasy goodness. PHI has to be able to stop Henry (or Henry is breaking off big chunk gains that go for TDs) in order for them to have enough possession to get to 35 passes for Hurts.
My Plays: I will strongly look at Devonta Smith at only 6.2k here. In a pass funnel matchup with a pass heavy attack he should get 10+ targets and he should be fairly efficient with his receptions, catching 7-10 balls and getting close to 100 or over. If he scores a TD (seems reasonable) he can score 26 points without even having a great day. If I have 2 Smith lineups in a 3max, I will have one AJ Brown lineup too. Burks is a good bring back and so is Derrick Henry who could break off some big gains for TDs and really send this game into overdrive.
Leverage Plays:
At OWS, we look for the GAME ENVIRONMENTS that produce tourney winning scores. In addition, we need to know who the TOP PLAYS are (despite ownership) and not be afraid to play them! We look for ANGLES that allow us to fit the best plays into a lineup that is different. Finally, we need to be considering good LEVERAGE spots that we can take advantage of. That’s what I look for in this space.
How I structure my Notes:
Initial Thoughts: Before I read the NFL Edge I find time to do my own research and synthesize some of my thoughts about the game.
Tourney Winning Plays: Players who get enough volume and quality volume to post a tourney winning score on their own regardless of the game environment. Most DFS players will be building around these pieces.
Likely Game Environment and stacks within that environment to capitalize on in order to squeeze as many FPs as possible out of good games.
My Plays are the people I will be looking to roster from this game.
Leverage plays are written later in the week, like on Saturday, after I have gotten a full feel for the slate and know where I can gain leverage off of likely high ownership or -EV chalky spots.
Trying to Win another Tourney! (213.64 POINTS!!!) – Scroll down for a better description of how and why I structure my game notes in this manner.
Initial Thoughts: I don’t like rostering players from games held in NYG. Daniel Jones is the ONLY guy I would have interest in and that would be if no other QBs stood out this week as possible 30+ point plays.
At OWS, we look for the GAME ENVIRONMENTS that produce tourney winning scores. In addition, we need to know who the TOP PLAYS are (despite ownership) and not be afraid to play them! We look for ANGLES that allow us to fit the best plays into a lineup that is different. Finally, we need to be considering good LEVERAGE spots that we can take advantage of. That’s what I look for in this space.
How I structure my Notes:
Initial Thoughts: Before I read the NFL Edge I find time to do my own research and synthesize some of my thoughts about the game.
Tourney Winning Plays: Players who get enough volume and quality volume to post a tourney winning score on their own regardless of the game environment. Most DFS players will be building around these pieces.
Likely Game Environment and stacks within that environment to capitalize on in order to squeeze as many FPs as possible out of good games.
My Plays are the people I will be looking to roster from this game.
Leverage plays are written later in the week, like on Saturday, after I have gotten a full feel for the slate and know where I can gain leverage off of likely high ownership or -EV chalky spots.
Trying to Win another Tourney! (213.64 POINTS!!!) – Scroll down for a better description of how and why I structure my game notes in this manner.
Initial Thoughts: The Jets have that good pass D and pass rush. They should give MIN and Cousins some problems. The Jets have every ability to hit for some big plays with their athletic WRs. If betting on this game to be high scoring its pretty easy to figure out. If going here you expect Mike White (5.4k) is probably throwing for 300 yards and 3 TDs again (on 30 attempts) and Wilson is going to be a big part of that. An elite athlete like Jefferson always has a high ceiling especially if the Jets are succeeding – its likely he and/or Hockenson are having good games.
Tourney Winning Plays: Justin Jefferson, TJ Hockenson. Both are primary foci in the passing game therefore getting tons of targets and usually picking up yards and sometimes TDs. Same is true even in this tougher game.
Game Environment: The Jets would like to run and throw short passes. They will probably force MIN to rely on short passes as well and they have a good defense with an ability perhaps to dictate that more. Both teams will need to sustain drives in order to score, but they both have the ability to do that. Still, the game wont be as fast paced as many others which leads to shootouts.
My Plays: maybe Garret Wilson again. TJ Hockenson is expensive but also has an ability to break the slate at TE. Who is Zonovan Knight and how will we know if he is the lead back?
Leverage Plays:
At OWS, we look for the GAME ENVIRONMENTS that produce tourney winning scores. In addition, we need to know who the TOP PLAYS are (despite ownership) and not be afraid to play them! We look for ANGLES that allow us to fit the best plays into a lineup that is different. Finally, we need to be considering good LEVERAGE spots that we can take advantage of. That’s what I look for in this space.
How I structure my Notes:
Initial Thoughts: Before I read the NFL Edge I find time to do my own research and synthesize some of my thoughts about the game.
Tourney Winning Plays: Players who get enough volume and quality volume to post a tourney winning score on their own regardless of the game environment. Most DFS players will be building around these pieces.
Likely Game Environment and stacks within that environment to capitalize on in order to squeeze as many FPs as possible out of good games.
My Plays are the people I will be looking to roster from this game.
Leverage plays are written later in the week, like on Saturday, after I have gotten a full feel for the slate and know where I can gain leverage off of likely high ownership or -EV chalky spots.
Trying to Win another Tourney! (213.64 POINTS!!!) – Scroll down for a better description of how and why I structure my game notes in this manner.
Initial Thoughts: Great run team. Bad run D. A few teams have run for over 300, and with TDs going to RBs that’s a lot of points between Chubb, Hunt. The Browns even love to run, but games are slow as a result. Chubb has to get his on chunk gains during the times he is playing, which could always happen. The Texans are facing a worse defense than themselves in terms of DVOA. Maybe the Texans are in play. Ultimately this game will run too slow to really matter.
Tourney Winning Plays: Nick Chubb has a really nice floor in this game. It would not surprise me if he finishes the first quarter with 80 rushing yards and a TD (14 points).
Game Environment: CLE will run the ball and bleed the clock as long as they can and/or need to. Watson will be given his opportunities, but given the likelihood that CEL takes a lead and the Texans are chasing them, CLE won’t need to pass much. HOU will eventually be forced to pass, but they probably won’t have the ball enough.
My Plays: Nick Chubb provides slight leverage on McCaffrey, Ekeler, Henry, Josh Jacobs owners. Chubb could easily outscore them. I don’t think I will play Watson unless I do 2 Chubb and one Watson-Amari stack.
Leverage Plays:
At OWS, we look for the GAME ENVIRONMENTS that produce tourney winning scores. In addition, we need to know who the TOP PLAYS are (despite ownership) and not be afraid to play them! We look for ANGLES that allow us to fit the best plays into a lineup that is different. Finally, we need to be considering good LEVERAGE spots that we can take advantage of. That’s what I look for in this space.
How I structure my Notes:
Initial Thoughts: Before I read the NFL Edge I find time to do my own research and synthesize some of my thoughts about the game.
Tourney Winning Plays: Players who get enough volume and quality volume to post a tourney winning score on their own regardless of the game environment. Most DFS players will be building around these pieces.
Likely Game Environment and stacks within that environment to capitalize on in order to squeeze as many FPs as possible out of good games.
My Plays are the people I will be looking to roster from this game.
Leverage plays are written later in the week, like on Saturday, after I have gotten a full feel for the slate and know where I can gain leverage off of likely high ownership or -EV chalky spots.
Trying to Win another Tourney! (213.64 POINTS!!!) – Scroll down for a better description of how and why I structure my game notes in this manner.
Initial Thoughts: The Jags have a pretty good team and they seem to be well coached. They are “in” every game because they have a pretty good defense. They can also score points on good days. The pass game is not primary for JAX, but the running game is pretty banged up right now. (Hasty becomes a strong play if Etienne is out) Detroit’s offense should find success doing what they do in a home game, but JAX is good enough to limit them from scoring too many TDs to put the slate out of reach. This looks like a possible blowup spot, but if JAX can hold DET out of the end-zone this game will likely disappoint.
Tourney Winning Plays: Amon Ra St. Brown has a lot of DK points before TDs and is cheaper than most WRs of his caliber. He needs TDs to really make a difference, so consider Trevor Lawrence as another high upside player that could go 5x.
Game Environment: This is definitely a game that could end up scoring 60 points between the teams. That would be enough to win a tourney with the right plays I think. Once one team grabs a lead, the other team will start picking up the pace. These teams are used to picking up the pace as the game wears on. I imagine they can both easily get dragged along that route again here.
My Plays: Ra St. Brown is always a fun guy to play when he’s healthy. Trevor Lawrence to Kirk or Zay is a good play opposite St. Brown.
Leverage Plays:
At OWS, we look for the GAME ENVIRONMENTS that produce tourney winning scores. In addition, we need to know who the TOP PLAYS are (despite ownership) and not be afraid to play them! We look for ANGLES that allow us to fit the best plays into a lineup that is different. Finally, we need to be considering good LEVERAGE spots that we can take advantage of. That’s what I look for in this space.
How I structure my Notes:
Initial Thoughts: Before I read the NFL Edge I find time to do my own research and synthesize some of my thoughts about the game.
Tourney Winning Plays: Players who get enough volume and quality volume to post a tourney winning score on their own regardless of the game environment. Most DFS players will be building around these pieces.
Likely Game Environment and stacks within that environment to capitalize on in order to squeeze as many FPs as possible out of good games.
My Plays are the people I will be looking to roster from this game.
Leverage plays are written later in the week, like on Saturday, after I have gotten a full feel for the slate and know where I can gain leverage off of likely high ownership or -EV chalky spots.
Trying to Win another Tourney! (213.64 POINTS!!!) – Scroll down for a better description of how and why I structure my game notes in this manner.
Initial Thoughts: Do the Bears have Fields back and healthy? It is possible they try to limit him a little bit, but this is also a great chance to finally beat the Packers. Hurts and Sanders just combined for 300 yards against GB. I don’t think they would start Fields if he couldn’t run. That is his strength. So if Fields plays, the Bears can find ways to score and GB should also find ways to score against this bottom tier D. Both teams require the run game to succeed, so a true shootout is less likely, but both teams can be efficient at scoring TDs. Great spot if ownership is low.
At OWS, we look for the GAME ENVIRONMENTS that produce tourney winning scores. In addition, we need to know who the TOP PLAYS are (despite ownership) and not be afraid to play them! We look for ANGLES that allow us to fit the best plays into a lineup that is different. Finally, we need to be considering good LEVERAGE spots that we can take advantage of. That’s what I look for in this space.
How I structure my Notes:
Initial Thoughts: Before I read the NFL Edge I find time to do my own research and synthesize some of my thoughts about the game.
Tourney Winning Plays: Players who get enough volume and quality volume to post a tourney winning score on their own regardless of the game environment. Most DFS players will be building around these pieces.
Likely Game Environment and stacks within that environment to capitalize on in order to squeeze as many FPs as possible out of good games.
My Plays are the people I will be looking to roster from this game.
Leverage plays are written later in the week, like on Saturday, after I have gotten a full feel for the slate and know where I can gain leverage off of likely high ownership or -EV chalky spots.
Trying to Win another Tourney! (213.64 POINTS!!!) – Scroll down for a better description of how and why I structure my game notes in this manner.
Initial Thoughts: This looks like an easy game plan for BAL. Commit to the run game and play action to your best targets, but you can win with your run game. DEN has a bad offense but they have succeeded in big-ish plays (8th yards per pass) and BAL has been susceptible to that. I don’t expect DEN to have consistent success, but its not out of the realm of possibility that they put up some points. I imagine DEN will be reactive in their offensive approach. The big plays could come as a result of BALs run game succeeding, which I think it will. I mean, why tempt fate by passing into the heart of the DEN D?
Game Environment: This one will be slow paced and run heavy by BAL at least. DEN is not really worth betting on. They could luck into a few big plays (and maybe you want to take a shot on a low owned and low priced guy) but there are far better bets elsewhere.
My Plays: none
Leverage Plays:
At OWS, we look for the GAME ENVIRONMENTS that produce tourney winning scores. In addition, we need to know who the TOP PLAYS are (despite ownership) and not be afraid to play them! We look for ANGLES that allow us to fit the best plays into a lineup that is different. Finally, we need to be considering good LEVERAGE spots that we can take advantage of. That’s what I look for in this space.
How I structure my Notes:
Initial Thoughts: Before I read the NFL Edge I find time to do my own research and synthesize some of my thoughts about the game.
Tourney Winning Plays: Players who get enough volume and quality volume to post a tourney winning score on their own regardless of the game environment. Most DFS players will be building around these pieces.
Likely Game Environment and stacks within that environment to capitalize on in order to squeeze as many FPs as possible out of good games.
My Plays are the people I will be looking to roster from this game.
Leverage plays are written later in the week, like on Saturday, after I have gotten a full feel for the slate and know where I can gain leverage off of likely high ownership or -EV chalky spots.
Trying to Win another Tourney! (213.64 POINTS!!!) – Scroll down for a better description of how and why I structure my game notes in this manner.
Initial Thoughts: It seems like ATL is going to be running an offense that goes into the teeth of the PIT D. Mariota is going to be forced to beat this PIT team and what PIT seems to lack on defense (statistically at least) is an ability to stop the big pass play. Who on ATL is going to provide that? Meanwhile, PITs offense is decent, but definitely not good. They may have an easier time with ATL. Looking back at their schedule, the only below average defense they have faced were the Browns and I guess the Bengals. PIT could really find the treading easier here and have a good game. If PIT jumps out to a lead which is possible, ATL will have to pass, but ATL is also the slowest team to react and change their game plan. This game probably doesn’t compete with others, but Pickett, Pickens and PIT RB could have some good games.
Game Environment: The game environment that we would be looking to exploit here is one in which PIT is finding it easier than normal to score. This would likely come through big plays to Kenny Pickens rather than sustained drives (although there certainly will be some of that). Pickett will have to be over 40 attempts to be able to find success because his normal attempts have a low aDot. Why would PIT call so many pass plays? If they are losing by a lot, they would obviously do this and its not out of the question for ATL special teams and defense to score a couple TDs, but that is a low likelihood outcome. PIT passed a bunch in a low scoring game vs. MIA. Maybe we see that here. They also had 40+ passes vs. CIN in a faster paced game. While I like PITs ability to have success here on offense, I’m not sure its a compelling case for them to have an increased # pass plays vs. a team like ATL.
My Plays: I am likely not stacking this game, but would not be surprised if a PIT WR/TE posts a great score at their price. This is the easiest matchup PIT will have had all year (by a long shot) so it wouldn’t surprise me if they scored more TDs and had a few bigger plays than normal. DJ (5.2)or Pickens (5.1) or Freiermuth (4.3) can all independently go for 7-9 receptions for 100 yards and a TD (26 points) which could be a valuable salary saver on this slate.
Leverage Plays:
At OWS, we look for the GAME ENVIRONMENTS that produce tourney winning scores. In addition, we need to know who the TOP PLAYS are (despite ownership) and not be afraid to play them! We look for ANGLES that allow us to fit the best plays into a lineup that is different. Finally, we need to be considering good LEVERAGE spots that we can take advantage of. That’s what I look for in this space.
How I structure my Notes:
Initial Thoughts: Before I read the NFL Edge I find time to do my own research and synthesize some of my thoughts about the game.
Tourney Winning Plays: Players who get enough volume and quality volume to post a tourney winning score on their own regardless of the game environment. Most DFS players will be building around these pieces.
Likely Game Environment and stacks within that environment to capitalize on in order to squeeze as many FPs as possible out of good games.
My Plays are the people I will be looking to roster from this game.
Leverage plays are written later in the week, like on Saturday, after I have gotten a full feel for the slate and know where I can gain leverage off of likely high ownership or -EV chalky spots.
Chiefs at Raiders, Week 18
Trying to win a 2 Game Slate:
Initial Thoughts: What stands out the most from this slate is the lack of WR options that are worth rostering. Davante Adams, Zay Jones, Christian Kirk (maybe Burks) are heads and tails above the rest of the WR options, but we also know they will all be highly owned. I imagine 75% of rosters have Adams plus one of Jones/Kirk. After those 4, we have Juju who has a 20 + point ceiling and then Toney, R. Woods who have 20 point ceilings if you squint and really not much below that.
At the RB position you will have every lineup (>90%) rostering 2 of the following 5: Henry, Jacobs, McKinnon, Etienne, Pacheco. Henry and Jacobs have the highest ceilings. Many will roster 3/5 considering how little assurance we can have with WRs in this game. McKinnon continues to see the receptions and TDs (with Hardman back this red-zone situation is more muddled) carry his scores and Etienne receives the workload, but is in a tough matchup for RBs. Pacheco still does not see enough volume to reach the ceilings of the other backs, but he still provides a decent floor.
It is going to be hard to get a low owned play out of this slate that feels good. It is going to be hard to get a 1st place finish that is not a duplicated lineup because so many people are going to be forced to play the same guys. As always, we have to look for ways to be different, whether that is from a salary perspective and/or from a game environment perspective and telling a different story than others are telling.
Idea #1: Fade Davante Adams (8.8k) and play Mahomes (8.4k). Plenty of people will play these two together, but doing so forces you to take on a lot of extra risk. Mahomes can easily hit for 30-40 in this spot, and if Adams has a bad game (8 games under 20 points and 7 over 30) you are essentially gaining up to 20 points more than rosters with similar constructions and if your opponent paired Adams with Stidham, who will suffer without a big game from Adams, you will gain from that choice as well. Adams gained about 120 of his 150 yards on 3 big pass plays last week. KC allows a lot of passing yardage, but it is mostly underneath and not over the top. If Adams is not hitting its likely that another LV passing piece (Renfrow, Waller, Moreau, Mack) is hitting for a decent score.
Idea #2: Overstack the JAX passing attack. TEN defends the run well and forces offenses to pass. The only offenses that have really succeeded in doing this while scoring more than 20 points are BUF, PHI, and JAX (avg. 37 points). If JAX passing attack scores 4 TDs a Lawrence + 3 pass catchers stack could work. I would play Marvin Jones w/ 2 of Kirk, Zay, Engram. If the KC-LV game finishes with no outstanding price considered scores (Adams goes for < 20 and KC continues to spread the wealth on offense), this stack would be looking pretty good going into the night game.
Vikings at Bears, Week 18
Trying to Win Week 18!
Initial Thoughts: As soon as Justin Fields got a little nick, they made him a pocket passer and that was no good for his health, nor his abilities. I imagine they are still going to work on him as a pocket passer. I don’t think it was totally the hip injury that kept him from running, I think it was Detroit’s offense and the Bears figuring they should work on stuff. If CHI’s offense is no good, this game will likely disappoint. MIN can easily score, but won’t they be trying to get some rest here. This game has a low probability of going off. CHI will not jump to an early lead (defense and offense are not good) and if MIN grabs a lead, CHI will not be running Fields and hoping to claw back into the game. This game most likely has one sputtering offense (CHI) and one team content to rest players after getting on the same page with Jefferson a week after he was ejected from the game.
Patriots at Bills, Week 18
Trying to Win Week 18!
Initial Thoughts: The Bills need/want to win. I imagine they will be emotional and that is definitely helpful in terms of production. The Pats are in the hunt for the playoffs and they are likely to run the ball and keep Josh Allen off the field. I’m not sure they are capable of that and so I like Josh Allen and company in this game!
Buccaneers at Falcons, Week 18
Trying to Win Week 18!
Initial Thoughts: Bucs have clinched and the Falcons are out. TB will not be as pass centric as they have been and ATL is likely working on their offense and defense for next year. Off the top of my head, the only target here is Drake London.
Eagles at Cowboys, Week 16
Trying to Win another Tourney! (213.64 POINTS!!!) – Scroll down for a better description of how and why I structure my game notes in this manner.
Initial Thoughts: The two strengths for these offenses are their run games. The two weaknesses for the defenses are in the run game. Neither team is going to abandon the pass, especially if they feel the need to push the pace, but each pass D is tops in the league so the rushing attempts should outweigh the passing for both sides. At elevated prices it is hard to see a game stack here paying off or contributing to a 200+ point score. If Hurts does not play, Gardner Minshew is only 4.8k and Sanders is 6.2k coming off a game in which he really disappointed the 30% of people who rostered him. He will be very low owned.
NEW*** Avoiding biases/Challenging preconceived notions:
Tourney Winning Plays:
Game Environment:
My Plays:
Leverage Plays:
At OWS, we look for the GAME ENVIRONMENTS that produce tourney winning scores. In addition, we need to know who the TOP PLAYS are (despite ownership) and not be afraid to play them! We look for ANGLES that allow us to fit the best plays into a lineup that is different. Finally, we need to be considering good LEVERAGE spots that we can take advantage of. That’s what I look for in this space.
How I structure my Notes:
Initial Thoughts: Before I read the NFL Edge I find time to do my own research and synthesize some of my thoughts about the game.
Tourney Winning Plays: Players who get enough volume and quality volume to post a tourney winning score on their own regardless of the game environment. Most DFS players will be building around these pieces.
Likely Game Environment and stacks within that environment to capitalize on in order to squeeze as many FPs as possible out of good games.
My Plays are the people I will be looking to roster from this game.
Leverage plays are written later in the week, like on Saturday, after I have gotten a full feel for the slate and know where I can gain leverage off of likely high ownership or -EV chalky spots.
Commanders at 49ers, Week 16
Trying to Win another Tourney! (213.64 POINTS!!!) – Scroll down for a better description of how and why I structure my game notes in this manner.
Initial Thoughts: The opportunity WAS has to win this game can only come through limiting SFs scoring. WAS cannot score on SF with regularity. WAS does have a pretty good run D, but SF has enough play makers on offense and enough of a dynamic offense that the WAS D shouldn’t stop them. There are not many other pathways to this game developing other than a slow game environment with SF gradually increasing taking control. Heinicke + McLaurin (11.5k) had produced solid scores before, but you take on a lot of risk (tanking your roster risk) for a possible 5x score and you only get two spots on your roster correct. Good but I’m guessing there are other spots that have a better than 10% chance of hitting. SF could always dominate like they did vs. Bucs, but that takes McCaffrey out of the game before he has a real chance to pay off his 8.8k salary. This is mostly a stay away game.
NEW*** Avoiding biases/Challenging preconceived notions:
Tourney Winning Plays:
Game Environment:
My Plays:
Leverage Plays:
At OWS, we look for the GAME ENVIRONMENTS that produce tourney winning scores. In addition, we need to know who the TOP PLAYS are (despite ownership) and not be afraid to play them! We look for ANGLES that allow us to fit the best plays into a lineup that is different. Finally, we need to be considering good LEVERAGE spots that we can take advantage of. That’s what I look for in this space.
How I structure my Notes:
Initial Thoughts: Before I read the NFL Edge I find time to do my own research and synthesize some of my thoughts about the game.
Tourney Winning Plays: Players who get enough volume and quality volume to post a tourney winning score on their own regardless of the game environment. Most DFS players will be building around these pieces.
Likely Game Environment and stacks within that environment to capitalize on in order to squeeze as many FPs as possible out of good games.
My Plays are the people I will be looking to roster from this game.
Leverage plays are written later in the week, like on Saturday, after I have gotten a full feel for the slate and know where I can gain leverage off of likely high ownership or -EV chalky spots.
Commanders at 49ers, Week 16
Trying to Win another Tourney! (213.64 POINTS!!!) – Scroll down for a better description of how and why I structure my game notes in this manner.
Initial Thoughts: The opportunity WAS has to win this game can only come through limiting SFs scoring. WAS cannot score on SF with regularity. WAS does have a pretty good run D, but SF has enough play makers on offense and enough of a dynamic offense that the WAS D shouldn’t stop them. There are not many other pathways to this game developing other than a slow game environment with SF gradually increasing taking control. Heinicke + McLaurin (11.5k) had produced solid scores before, but you take on a lot of risk (tanking your roster risk) for a possible 5x score and you only get two spots on your roster correct. Good but I’m guessing there are other spots that have a better than 10% chance of hitting. SF could always dominate like they did vs. Bucs, but that takes McCaffrey out of the game before he has a real chance to pay off his 8.8k salary. This is mostly a stay away game.
NEW*** Avoiding biases/Challenging preconceived notions:
Tourney Winning Plays: cmc but threat of rest is real and WAS has a solid run D. Kittle at TE is solid with no Deebo and Purdy seems to agree.
Game Environment: not attractive
My Plays: Kittle.
Leverage Plays:
At OWS, we look for the GAME ENVIRONMENTS that produce tourney winning scores. In addition, we need to know who the TOP PLAYS are (despite ownership) and not be afraid to play them! We look for ANGLES that allow us to fit the best plays into a lineup that is different. Finally, we need to be considering good LEVERAGE spots that we can take advantage of. That’s what I look for in this space.
How I structure my Notes:
Initial Thoughts: Before I read the NFL Edge I find time to do my own research and synthesize some of my thoughts about the game.
Tourney Winning Plays: Players who get enough volume and quality volume to post a tourney winning score on their own regardless of the game environment. Most DFS players will be building around these pieces.
Likely Game Environment and stacks within that environment to capitalize on in order to squeeze as many FPs as possible out of good games.
My Plays are the people I will be looking to roster from this game.
Leverage plays are written later in the week, like on Saturday, after I have gotten a full feel for the slate and know where I can gain leverage off of likely high ownership or -EV chalky spots.
Texans at Titans, Week 16
Trying to Win another Tourney! (213.64 POINTS!!!) – Scroll down for a better description of how and why I structure my game notes in this manner.
Initial Thoughts: none needed but Derrick Henry
NEW*** Avoiding biases/Challenging preconceived notions:
Tourney Winning Plays: The Texans have played tough against the Cowboys and Chiefs the last two weeks. They held both offenses to 57 total combined points and 900+ yards of total offense, not exactly a top tier defense, but impressive not the less. The Titans will be difficult to run the ball on and HOU doesn’t have a great passing offense, so I expect HOU to finally have a more difficult time scoring points. Besides turnovers I am not really sure how they have done it. Expect TEN to run the ball constantly through Derrick Henry and for him to clear 100 yards easily in this game. He is the only player I have any interest in here and I am sure plenty of other people will have similar interest. Henry + Titans D will be pretty chalky.
Game Environment:
My Plays:
Leverage Plays:
At OWS, we look for the GAME ENVIRONMENTS that produce tourney winning scores. In addition, we need to know who the TOP PLAYS are (despite ownership) and not be afraid to play them! We look for ANGLES that allow us to fit the best plays into a lineup that is different. Finally, we need to be considering good LEVERAGE spots that we can take advantage of. That’s what I look for in this space.
How I structure my Notes:
Initial Thoughts: Before I read the NFL Edge I find time to do my own research and synthesize some of my thoughts about the game.
Tourney Winning Plays: Players who get enough volume and quality volume to post a tourney winning score on their own regardless of the game environment. Most DFS players will be building around these pieces.
Likely Game Environment and stacks within that environment to capitalize on in order to squeeze as many FPs as possible out of good games.
My Plays are the people I will be looking to roster from this game.
Leverage plays are written later in the week, like on Saturday, after I have gotten a full feel for the slate and know where I can gain leverage off of likely high ownership or -EV chalky spots.
Bengals at Patriots, Week 16
Trying to Win another Tourney! (213.64 POINTS!!!) – Scroll down for a better description of how and why I structure my game notes in this manner.
Initial Thoughts: CIN and Joe Burrow get another chance to get their elite passing offense going, but NE is a pretty tough D to face, especially vs. the pass. There is little expectation for the NE offense in this spot meaning CIN will have to keep their foot on the gas pedal in order to really rack up the DFS points. CIN will likely find a way to score TDs, but it is hard to lock onto one of the WRs and hope they produce a tourney winning score. It is more likely that the opportunities are spread out amongst Chase, Higgins, Boyd or that one pops off for a usable DFS score in this one.
NEW*** Avoiding biases/Challenging preconceived notions:
Tourney Winning Plays: none
Game Environment: seems fine but unlikely to shootout. Hard to pinpoint who might put up a 4x score and the ceiling isn’t much above that.
My Plays: likely none but I’ll play Chase on teams where it makes sense to grab an expensive guy who can put me over the top.
Leverage Plays:
At OWS, we look for the GAME ENVIRONMENTS that produce tourney winning scores. In addition, we need to know who the TOP PLAYS are (despite ownership) and not be afraid to play them! We look for ANGLES that allow us to fit the best plays into a lineup that is different. Finally, we need to be considering good LEVERAGE spots that we can take advantage of. That’s what I look for in this space.
How I structure my Notes:
Initial Thoughts: Before I read the NFL Edge I find time to do my own research and synthesize some of my thoughts about the game.
Tourney Winning Plays: Players who get enough volume and quality volume to post a tourney winning score on their own regardless of the game environment. Most DFS players will be building around these pieces.
Likely Game Environment and stacks within that environment to capitalize on in order to squeeze as many FPs as possible out of good games.
My Plays are the people I will be looking to roster from this game.
Leverage plays are written later in the week, like on Saturday, after I have gotten a full feel for the slate and know where I can gain leverage off of likely high ownership or -EV chalky spots.
Giants at Vikings, Week 16
Trying to Win another Tourney! (213.64 POINTS!!!) – Scroll down for a better description of how and why I structure my game notes in this manner.
Initial Thoughts: There is not much exceptional about the Giants. They have no players over a 16% target share (Saquon, Slayton, Richie James) and they do not pass that often except for the game they got blown out by DET. No one is going to get enough volume on their own to play outside of game stacks. Speaking of game stacks, the Vikings are another team that just seems to play to high scoring totals nearly every week. There will definitely be some offense in this game. Targets for MIN should run through Hockenson and Jefferson and the game environment should push D. Jones to the air a bit, but it also wouldn’t be surprising if the individual scores in this game fail to produce scores you need to win a tourney at the prices we are seeing. I would almost rather bet on the game environment by playing Daniel Jones + WR, realizing that NYG will probably be forced to come back at some point and Jones can either run the ball or lock on to Slayton or R. James.
NEW*** Avoiding biases/Challenging preconceived notions:
Tourney Winning Plays: Jefferson should get a lot of volume and be the first look when the blitz gets going.
Game Environment: NYG could drag down the pace of this game. They could make it very hard for MIN to sustain drives at the beginning of the game and ultimately slow things down a bit, but once MIN figures things out they can always post a tourney winning score.
My Plays: Just game stacks with Jefferson, Dalvin, D. Jones, one of Slayton/R James.
Leverage Plays:
At OWS, we look for the GAME ENVIRONMENTS that produce tourney winning scores. In addition, we need to know who the TOP PLAYS are (despite ownership) and not be afraid to play them! We look for ANGLES that allow us to fit the best plays into a lineup that is different. Finally, we need to be considering good LEVERAGE spots that we can take advantage of. That’s what I look for in this space.
How I structure my Notes:
Initial Thoughts: Before I read the NFL Edge I find time to do my own research and synthesize some of my thoughts about the game.
Tourney Winning Plays: Players who get enough volume and quality volume to post a tourney winning score on their own regardless of the game environment. Most DFS players will be building around these pieces.
Likely Game Environment and stacks within that environment to capitalize on in order to squeeze as many FPs as possible out of good games.
My Plays are the people I will be looking to roster from this game.
Leverage plays are written later in the week, like on Saturday, after I have gotten a full feel for the slate and know where I can gain leverage off of likely high ownership or -EV chalky spots.
Seahawks at Chiefs, Week 16
Trying to Win another Tourney! (213.64 POINTS!!!) – Scroll down for a better description of how and why I structure my game notes in this manner.
Initial Thoughts: This looks like a very fun game to target for DFS. The Hawks are very condensed on offense with Geno/Metcalf/Walker and Goodwin I guess. They should be pressed to throw the ball and try to keep up with a KC offense that will eventually score points during the game. Juju and Kelce are the obvious target hogs with McKinnon still getting 7-8 targets nearly every game when healthy. The offense is not necessarily looking for those big plays, but seems to do fine with a more efficient passing style – racking up receptions. It might happen that the target hogs also grab the TDs one of these games making Mahomes and one of Kelce/Juju a had to have it piece this week. You might as well bring it back with Metcalf or Goodwin (or Fant) at a cheaper price.
NEW*** Avoiding biases/Challenging preconceived notions:
Tourney Winning Plays: DK Metcalf is such a sure bet for 10+ targets. Honestly so is Juju and so is Kelce. All can be considered high floor and high upside pieces. Put Geno in the same mix and Mahomes. Lots of tourney winning plays from this game.
Game Environment: it’s obviously going to be a good game environment. KC would have to fail massively and let SEA compete with a middling run game.
My Plays: Geno Smith with Marquise Goodwin and DK Metcalf could combine for 200 yards (1 bonus) and 13 receptions and 2TDs (48 points, like 4x) and Geno would be a good bet to add to that. I want Kelce and/or Juju as a run back – they are going to run into some TDs soon. I like McKinnon but I’m also wary of playing the hot hand.
Leverage Plays:
At OWS, we look for the GAME ENVIRONMENTS that produce tourney winning scores. In addition, we need to know who the TOP PLAYS are (despite ownership) and not be afraid to play them! We look for ANGLES that allow us to fit the best plays into a lineup that is different. Finally, we need to be considering good LEVERAGE spots that we can take advantage of. That’s what I look for in this space.
How I structure my Notes:
Initial Thoughts: Before I read the NFL Edge I find time to do my own research and synthesize some of my thoughts about the game.
Tourney Winning Plays: Players who get enough volume and quality volume to post a tourney winning score on their own regardless of the game environment. Most DFS players will be building around these pieces.
Likely Game Environment and stacks within that environment to capitalize on in order to squeeze as many FPs as possible out of good games.
My Plays are the people I will be looking to roster from this game.
Leverage plays are written later in the week, like on Saturday, after I have gotten a full feel for the slate and know where I can gain leverage off of likely high ownership or -EV chalky spots.
Saints at Browns, Week 16
Trying to Win another Tourney! (213.64 POINTS!!!) – Scroll down for a better description of how and why I structure my game notes in this manner.
Initial Thoughts: We have two teams that are not very offensively minded and prefer to play slow and run the ball. It doesn’t seem like either team is interested in passing a ton, but if either team was forced to pass, the targets would flow to a decently condensed group of players. For NO you would distribute targets between Olave, Johnson and Shaheed. For CLE its Cooper, DPJ and Njoku (but Watson has been able to spread the ball out a bit more than that) – if a true shootout somehow develops there could be some fantasy goodness here, but I can’t figure out how it would develop outside of some fluky plays.
NEW*** Avoiding biases/Challenging preconceived notions:
Tourney Winning Plays: none
Game Environment: the Vegas total speaks volumes. There is a significant chance this game could end 14-10. Not much chance if weather is really bad of this game having lots of offense.
My Plays: none
Leverage Plays:
At OWS, we look for the GAME ENVIRONMENTS that produce tourney winning scores. In addition, we need to know who the TOP PLAYS are (despite ownership) and not be afraid to play them! We look for ANGLES that allow us to fit the best plays into a lineup that is different. Finally, we need to be considering good LEVERAGE spots that we can take advantage of. That’s what I look for in this space.
How I structure my Notes:
Initial Thoughts: Before I read the NFL Edge I find time to do my own research and synthesize some of my thoughts about the game.
Tourney Winning Plays: Players who get enough volume and quality volume to post a tourney winning score on their own regardless of the game environment. Most DFS players will be building around these pieces.
Likely Game Environment and stacks within that environment to capitalize on in order to squeeze as many FPs as possible out of good games.
My Plays are the people I will be looking to roster from this game.
Leverage plays are written later in the week, like on Saturday, after I have gotten a full feel for the slate and know where I can gain leverage off of likely high ownership or -EV chalky spots.
Bills at Bears, Week 16
Trying to Win another Tourney! (213.64 POINTS!!!) – Scroll down for a better description of how and why I structure my game notes in this manner.
Initial Thoughts: While the Bears cannot win a shootout vs. a good defense (they do not have big passing plays or an ability to quickly drive the field) they can put up at least a few TDs and if the game is within one possession in the 4th quarter it is possible that Fields can take over the game and win it on his own much the way Josh Allen can. BUF has a much more dynamic offense and an ability to pass and run. For DFS we certainly want BUF to be pressed to score early and often against a bad Bears D. Josh Allen can always pay off his 8.5k salary (scored 39 last week) but he will need to be pressed late into the 4th quarter to attain those rushing upside points and multiple TDs.
NEW*** Avoiding biases/Challenging preconceived notions:
Tourney Winning Plays: Diggs should get a ton of volume in a game where Allen throws 35+ which will depend on weather.
Game Environment: if the weather allows for it we should see a pretty good game for scoring. Fields is difficult to defend and should have some big plays. The Bills will be able to find ways to beat the Bears and will likely have success from the start. The total has accounted (maybe too much) for weather and the Bills still have 24 points. There may be room for the Bills to get to 40 points in this spot and CHI would likely also be scoring.
My Plays: I like Josh Allen in a week with lots of low scores. Allen would primarily benefit from a higher scoring game here. So would Stef Diggs whose ownership will be low with weather taken into account. I also like any BUF pass catcher. I would run a Kmet or Pringle bring back.
Leverage Plays:
At OWS, we look for the GAME ENVIRONMENTS that produce tourney winning scores. In addition, we need to know who the TOP PLAYS are (despite ownership) and not be afraid to play them! We look for ANGLES that allow us to fit the best plays into a lineup that is different. Finally, we need to be considering good LEVERAGE spots that we can take advantage of. That’s what I look for in this space.
How I structure my Notes:
Initial Thoughts: Before I read the NFL Edge I find time to do my own research and synthesize some of my thoughts about the game.
Tourney Winning Plays: Players who get enough volume and quality volume to post a tourney winning score on their own regardless of the game environment. Most DFS players will be building around these pieces.
Likely Game Environment and stacks within that environment to capitalize on in order to squeeze as many FPs as possible out of good games.
My Plays are the people I will be looking to roster from this game.
Leverage plays are written later in the week, like on Saturday, after I have gotten a full feel for the slate and know where I can gain leverage off of likely high ownership or -EV chalky spots.
Lions at Panthers, Week 16
Trying to Win another Tourney! (213.64 POINTS!!!) – Scroll down for a better description of how and why I structure my game notes in this manner.
Initial Thoughts: DET is probably the best TEAM in the NFL. They make it all work and I am sure that has more to do with team concepts than the individual players, but someone seems to step up for them every week. Jared Goff threw the ball 38 times vs. NYJ and did not get intercepted. He was inefficient, but that is to be expected. It just speaks to DETs confidence in their passing game. CAR is a run first and second team with a defense that seems to be putting together a good end of season run. They were out ball controlled vs. PIT and the offense was forced to watch most of the game. CAR will try to get back to their running ways vs. DET, but DETs defense on the ground is good. DET should be able to control the ball in this game and feed their WRs again. I doubt that CAR can keep up with the passing attack of DET and see DET running away with this game and forcing CAR to also turn to the air (or DJ Moore/Chubba Hubbard) once they fall behind. This game could provide decent DFS scores, but I think CAR likely holds this game back from truly shooting out.
NEW*** Avoiding biases/Challenging preconceived notions:
Tourney Winning Plays: Amon Ra St Brown is likely to get 8-10 targets and connect on a bunch of them 6-8. He could go for over 100 yards and a TD (26 points) and could also go for more, but his floor is probably 6 Rec., 75 yards (13.5 points) DJ Chark should get 6 targets and can go for 4/80/1 TD very easily (18 points) and possibly will see more production with 5x firmly in play.
Game Environment: I still think people are too late to the Lions. They will be owned at least somewhat, even in a game with a 44 total. They should be passing a decent amount and Goff/Brown/Chark have shown good balance and many other pieces of the offense mix in and help keep other teams off balance. Carolina won’t be able to run enough to be effective and they will have to turn to the pass in order to keep up, which could make DJ Moore see more volume – he needs it to be relevant.
My Plays: I could see myself playing any of Goff, Brown, Chark, Moore. I could see myself looking at Swift as well but there are other RB options that are more attractive.
Leverage Plays:
At OWS, we look for the GAME ENVIRONMENTS that produce tourney winning scores. In addition, we need to know who the TOP PLAYS are (despite ownership) and not be afraid to play them! We look for ANGLES that allow us to fit the best plays into a lineup that is different. Finally, we need to be considering good LEVERAGE spots that we can take advantage of. That’s what I look for in this space.
How I structure my Notes:
Initial Thoughts: Before I read the NFL Edge I find time to do my own research and synthesize some of my thoughts about the game.
Tourney Winning Plays: Players who get enough volume and quality volume to post a tourney winning score on their own regardless of the game environment. Most DFS players will be building around these pieces.
Likely Game Environment and stacks within that environment to capitalize on in order to squeeze as many FPs as possible out of good games.
My Plays are the people I will be looking to roster from this game.
Leverage plays are written later in the week, like on Saturday, after I have gotten a full feel for the slate and know where I can gain leverage off of likely high ownership or -EV chalky spots.
Falcons at Ravens, Week 16
Trying to Win another Tourney! (213.64 POINTS!!!) – Scroll down for a better description of how and why I structure my game notes in this manner.
Initial Thoughts: The ATL offense is still not great, but they do well with their running game and lack of passing – it just seems like they can only win if the other team plays the way they want them to, which is slow and low scoring. BAL tends to do that as well, especially if Lamar is out. You could hope for a multi TD game from one of the RBs in this game or hope a WR/TE has a huge game, but the environment for this one is not looking good for DFS.
NEW*** Avoiding biases/Challenging preconceived notions:
Tourney Winning Plays: maybe Drake London if you believe the 10+ targets sticks. He is still much more likely to go 4x that 5x (isn’t everyone…lol)
Game Environment: not a great environment because there is too much rushing.
My Plays: I could use Drake London if a) low owned and b) ceiling is taken into account by other plays in the lineup.
Leverage Plays:
At OWS, we look for the GAME ENVIRONMENTS that produce tourney winning scores. In addition, we need to know who the TOP PLAYS are (despite ownership) and not be afraid to play them! We look for ANGLES that allow us to fit the best plays into a lineup that is different. Finally, we need to be considering good LEVERAGE spots that we can take advantage of. That’s what I look for in this space.
How I structure my Notes:
Initial Thoughts: Before I read the NFL Edge I find time to do my own research and synthesize some of my thoughts about the game.
Tourney Winning Plays: Players who get enough volume and quality volume to post a tourney winning score on their own regardless of the game environment. Most DFS players will be building around these pieces.
Likely Game Environment and stacks within that environment to capitalize on in order to squeeze as many FPs as possible out of good games.
My Plays are the people I will be looking to roster from this game.
Leverage plays are written later in the week, like on Saturday, after I have gotten a full feel for the slate and know where I can gain leverage off of likely high ownership or -EV chalky spots.
Patriots at Raiders, Week 15
Trying to Win another Tourney! (213.64 POINTS!!!) – Scroll down for a better description of how and why I structure my game notes in this manner.
Initial Thoughts: The Patriots have a good defense. The Raiders do not. NE should be able to move the ball and score, just like every team that faces LV, especially in Vegas. NE should be able to hold Jacobs and Davante to a score that comes no where close to what they need to pay off their salaries. NE passing game might be a good place to take a bet on.
NEW*** Avoiding biases/Challenging preconceived notions:
Tourney Winning Plays:
Game Environment:
My Plays:
Leverage Plays:
At OWS, we look for the GAME ENVIRONMENTS that produce tourney winning scores. In addition, we need to know who the TOP PLAYS are (despite ownership) and not be afraid to play them! We look for ANGLES that allow us to fit the best plays into a lineup that is different. Finally, we need to be considering good LEVERAGE spots that we can take advantage of. That’s what I look for in this space.
How I structure my Notes:
Initial Thoughts: Before I read the NFL Edge I find time to do my own research and synthesize some of my thoughts about the game.
Tourney Winning Plays: Players who get enough volume and quality volume to post a tourney winning score on their own regardless of the game environment. Most DFS players will be building around these pieces.
Likely Game Environment and stacks within that environment to capitalize on in order to squeeze as many FPs as possible out of good games.
My Plays are the people I will be looking to roster from this game.
Leverage plays are written later in the week, like on Saturday, after I have gotten a full feel for the slate and know where I can gain leverage off of likely high ownership or -EV chalky spots.
Bengals at Buccaneers, Week 15
Trying to Win another Tourney! (213.64 POINTS!!!) – Scroll down for a better description of how and why I structure my game notes in this manner.
Initial Thoughts: CIN will probably have to be pushed in order to make them get aggressive. It seems like we have gone past the point of no return on Tom Brady and if Brady isn’t going to be effective, neither does Burrow need to. This game could easily bust.
NEW*** Avoiding biases/Challenging preconceived notions:
Tourney Winning Plays: Ja’Maar Chase, especially if he is the main offensive weapon on the team, he’s got a great chance to break something and/or build up the targets and receptions throughout the game.
Game Environment:
My Plays:
Leverage Plays:
At OWS, we look for the GAME ENVIRONMENTS that produce tourney winning scores. In addition, we need to know who the TOP PLAYS are (despite ownership) and not be afraid to play them! We look for ANGLES that allow us to fit the best plays into a lineup that is different. Finally, we need to be considering good LEVERAGE spots that we can take advantage of. That’s what I look for in this space.
How I structure my Notes:
Initial Thoughts: Before I read the NFL Edge I find time to do my own research and synthesize some of my thoughts about the game.
Tourney Winning Plays: Players who get enough volume and quality volume to post a tourney winning score on their own regardless of the game environment. Most DFS players will be building around these pieces.
Likely Game Environment and stacks within that environment to capitalize on in order to squeeze as many FPs as possible out of good games.
My Plays are the people I will be looking to roster from this game.
Leverage plays are written later in the week, like on Saturday, after I have gotten a full feel for the slate and know where I can gain leverage off of likely high ownership or -EV chalky spots.
Titans at Chargers, Week 15
Trying to Win another Tourney! (213.64 POINTS!!!) – Scroll down for a better description of how and why I structure my game notes in this manner.
Initial Thoughts: LAC was pretty dominant vs MIA and its likely because the whole arsenal is back and healthy. LAC is going to dominate again or at least score a lot of points while moving the ball a bunch. TEN should be able to run the ball a fair bit making D Henry stand out, but its also likely that TEN finds themselves in a negative game script as the game heads into the second half and is forced to pass.
NEW*** Avoiding biases/Challenging preconceived notions: If TEN is not leading the game, it is ever worth it to play Derrick Henry at an 8k price tag. The most DFS points he can get via the passing game is (3-4 rec/20-30 yards) 5-7 points and if he really needs 30, that’s 23-25 points he needs to get through TDs and yardage and bonuses. 130 yards = 16 points, 1 TD = 6, Total 27-30 points for an exceptional game. If TEN is leading the whole way (which implies they can stop a fully functioning and healthy LAC attack and not fall behind) D Henry can reach 4x his price, but not owning him likely won’t hurt you too bad.
Tourney Winning Plays:
Game Environment:
My Plays:
Leverage Plays:
At OWS, we look for the GAME ENVIRONMENTS that produce tourney winning scores. In addition, we need to know who the TOP PLAYS are (despite ownership) and not be afraid to play them! We look for ANGLES that allow us to fit the best plays into a lineup that is different. Finally, we need to be considering good LEVERAGE spots that we can take advantage of. That’s what I look for in this space.
How I structure my Notes:
Initial Thoughts: Before I read the NFL Edge I find time to do my own research and synthesize some of my thoughts about the game.
Tourney Winning Plays: Players who get enough volume and quality volume to post a tourney winning score on their own regardless of the game environment. Most DFS players will be building around these pieces.
Likely Game Environment and stacks within that environment to capitalize on in order to squeeze as many FPs as possible out of good games.
My Plays are the people I will be looking to roster from this game.
Leverage plays are written later in the week, like on Saturday, after I have gotten a full feel for the slate and know where I can gain leverage off of likely high ownership or -EV chalky spots.
Cardinals at Broncos, Week 15
Trying to Win another Tourney! (213.64 POINTS!!!) – Scroll down for a better description of how and why I structure my game notes in this manner.
Initial Thoughts: The Broncos really do have a good D, especially vs. the pass. AZ should be operating mainly through James Connor though and they will have a backup QB. This is an unlikely place to target players from outside of James Connor himself.
NEW*** Avoiding biases/Challenging preconceived notions:
Tourney Winning Plays:
Game Environment:
My Plays:
Leverage Plays:
At OWS, we look for the GAME ENVIRONMENTS that produce tourney winning scores. In addition, we need to know who the TOP PLAYS are (despite ownership) and not be afraid to play them! We look for ANGLES that allow us to fit the best plays into a lineup that is different. Finally, we need to be considering good LEVERAGE spots that we can take advantage of. That’s what I look for in this space.
How I structure my Notes:
Initial Thoughts: Before I read the NFL Edge I find time to do my own research and synthesize some of my thoughts about the game.
Tourney Winning Plays: Players who get enough volume and quality volume to post a tourney winning score on their own regardless of the game environment. Most DFS players will be building around these pieces.
Likely Game Environment and stacks within that environment to capitalize on in order to squeeze as many FPs as possible out of good games.
My Plays are the people I will be looking to roster from this game.
Leverage plays are written later in the week, like on Saturday, after I have gotten a full feel for the slate and know where I can gain leverage off of likely high ownership or -EV chalky spots.
Falcons at Saints, Week 15
Trying to Win another Tourney! (213.64 POINTS!!!) – Scroll down for a better description of how and why I structure my game notes in this manner.
Initial Thoughts: I mostly find myself wanting to punt on this game. NO is so spread out on offense that Olave is really the only player who has enough volume to post a decent score, not likely something you need to compete, but good enough to be on a roster. However, ATL will be trying to limit Mariota’s pass attempts (over 30 once this year in Week 1 vs. NO) and that does not allow for the game environment where NO will be passing much either. Note: With a new QB – Ridder – the low passing volume should continue. Both teams seem quite content to play slow. With Mark Ingram out and Kamara just not being very effective, it will be interesting to hear about what NO plans to do in order to move the ball. The reality is that too many people will likely be involved and that is bad for DFS.
NEW*** Avoiding biases/Challenging preconceived notions:
Tourney Winning Plays:
Game Environment:
My Plays:
Leverage Plays:
At OWS, we look for the GAME ENVIRONMENTS that produce tourney winning scores. In addition, we need to know who the TOP PLAYS are (despite ownership) and not be afraid to play them! We look for ANGLES that allow us to fit the best plays into a lineup that is different. Finally, we need to be considering good LEVERAGE spots that we can take advantage of. That’s what I look for in this space.
How I structure my Notes:
Initial Thoughts: Before I read the NFL Edge I find time to do my own research and synthesize some of my thoughts about the game.
Tourney Winning Plays: Players who get enough volume and quality volume to post a tourney winning score on their own regardless of the game environment. Most DFS players will be building around these pieces.
Likely Game Environment and stacks within that environment to capitalize on in order to squeeze as many FPs as possible out of good games.
My Plays are the people I will be looking to roster from this game.
Leverage plays are written later in the week, like on Saturday, after I have gotten a full feel for the slate and know where I can gain leverage off of likely high ownership or -EV chalky spots.
Lions at Jets, Week 15
Trying to Win another Tourney! (213.64 POINTS!!!) – Scroll down for a better description of how and why I structure my game notes in this manner.
Initial Thoughts: Jared Goff will not be on a tourney winning roster this week. NYJ D is legit good. NYJ will also be more likely to run the ball as a means of cementing a win in this game and DET is not awful on D. This should be a lower scoring game that is won by the team that can string efficient drives together. Not really a fantasy friendly game.
NEW*** Avoiding biases/Challenging preconceived notions:
Tourney Winning Plays:
Game Environment:
My Plays:
Leverage Plays:
At OWS, we look for the GAME ENVIRONMENTS that produce tourney winning scores. In addition, we need to know who the TOP PLAYS are (despite ownership) and not be afraid to play them! We look for ANGLES that allow us to fit the best plays into a lineup that is different. Finally, we need to be considering good LEVERAGE spots that we can take advantage of. That’s what I look for in this space.
How I structure my Notes:
Initial Thoughts: Before I read the NFL Edge I find time to do my own research and synthesize some of my thoughts about the game.
Tourney Winning Plays: Players who get enough volume and quality volume to post a tourney winning score on their own regardless of the game environment. Most DFS players will be building around these pieces.
Likely Game Environment and stacks within that environment to capitalize on in order to squeeze as many FPs as possible out of good games.
My Plays are the people I will be looking to roster from this game.
Leverage plays are written later in the week, like on Saturday, after I have gotten a full feel for the slate and know where I can gain leverage off of likely high ownership or -EV chalky spots.
Cowboys at Jaguars, Week 15
Trying to Win another Tourney! (213.64 POINTS!!!) – Scroll down for a better description of how and why I structure my game notes in this manner.
Initial Thoughts: DAL is in a good spot here. Many teams choose to pass more against the Jags than run. DAL would like to run the ball, but they also have some elite options in the passing game. DALs defense is really interesting in this spot as well, especially if they can grab a lead through the passing game and put some pressure on Trevor L. Lawrence has put together a few good games lately vs. the Titans and Ravens. DAL poses more of a threat (1st DVOA pass D) but if Lawrence can at least push JAX to compete in this spot, we could have a nice offensive explosion for the Cowboys passing game.
NEW*** Avoiding biases/Challenging preconceived notions:
Tourney Winning Plays:
Game Environment:
My Plays:
Leverage Plays:
At OWS, we look for the GAME ENVIRONMENTS that produce tourney winning scores. In addition, we need to know who the TOP PLAYS are (despite ownership) and not be afraid to play them! We look for ANGLES that allow us to fit the best plays into a lineup that is different. Finally, we need to be considering good LEVERAGE spots that we can take advantage of. That’s what I look for in this space.
How I structure my Notes:
Initial Thoughts: Before I read the NFL Edge I find time to do my own research and synthesize some of my thoughts about the game.
Tourney Winning Plays: Players who get enough volume and quality volume to post a tourney winning score on their own regardless of the game environment. Most DFS players will be building around these pieces.
Likely Game Environment and stacks within that environment to capitalize on in order to squeeze as many FPs as possible out of good games.
My Plays are the people I will be looking to roster from this game.
Leverage plays are written later in the week, like on Saturday, after I have gotten a full feel for the slate and know where I can gain leverage off of likely high ownership or -EV chalky spots.
Chiefs at Texans, Week 15
Trying to Win another Tourney! (213.64 POINTS!!!) – Scroll down for a better description of how and why I structure my game notes in this manner.
Initial Thoughts: Its the same story for KC. Mahomes will pass the ball and they have such a wide distribution of targets that its hard to know who to pair with him. Kelce? Juju? McKinnon? Pacheco? Toney? KC should easily light up the scoreboard so this could be a good spot to target. HOU will be playing in comeback mode and with their #1 RB out, they should be passing so maybe there is some cheap options like Moore or others who will get the targets.
NEW*** Avoiding biases/Challenging preconceived notions:
Tourney Winning Plays: Mahomes could get in there as could Kelce if he ends up being the main target this week. If HOU is going to make sure KC marches the field, Kelce should get some of those targets and red zone opps.
Game Environment: KC will be scoring throughout the game. It might be FGs or it might be TDs and inevitably both. HOU will struggle to score and if you play KC you just hope HOU doesn’t take too much time off the clock in between KC possessions. Almost makes sense to have no bring bac if that’s the case.
My Plays: I could see a Mahomes-Kelce roster or a Mahomes – Juju as a starting point. There isn’t much point of an overstack, just take the guaranteed points between Kelce or Juju.
Leverage Plays:
At OWS, we look for the GAME ENVIRONMENTS that produce tourney winning scores. In addition, we need to know who the TOP PLAYS are (despite ownership) and not be afraid to play them! We look for ANGLES that allow us to fit the best plays into a lineup that is different. Finally, we need to be considering good LEVERAGE spots that we can take advantage of. That’s what I look for in this space.
How I structure my Notes:
Initial Thoughts: Before I read the NFL Edge I find time to do my own research and synthesize some of my thoughts about the game.
Tourney Winning Plays: Players who get enough volume and quality volume to post a tourney winning score on their own regardless of the game environment. Most DFS players will be building around these pieces.
Likely Game Environment and stacks within that environment to capitalize on in order to squeeze as many FPs as possible out of good games.
My Plays are the people I will be looking to roster from this game.
Leverage plays are written later in the week, like on Saturday, after I have gotten a full feel for the slate and know where I can gain leverage off of likely high ownership or -EV chalky spots.
Eagles at Bears, Week 15
Trying to Win another Tourney! (213.64 POINTS!!!) – Scroll down for a better description of how and why I structure my game notes in this manner.
Initial Thoughts: The Bears D is nothing special and has no way of stopping the Eagles. CHI will be able to move the ball on the ground, but I can’t imagine it will be enough to compete with PHI’s offense. Fields will need some passing yards (will garbage time allow for this?) to reach his ceiling, so Hurts + PHI WRs is likely a better play and makes Fields obsolete on this slate since they are only $800 apart in price.
NEW*** Avoiding biases/Challenging preconceived notions:
Tourney Winning Plays:
Game Environment:
My Plays:
Leverage Plays:
At OWS, we look for the GAME ENVIRONMENTS that produce tourney winning scores. In addition, we need to know who the TOP PLAYS are (despite ownership) and not be afraid to play them! We look for ANGLES that allow us to fit the best plays into a lineup that is different. Finally, we need to be considering good LEVERAGE spots that we can take advantage of. That’s what I look for in this space.
How I structure my Notes:
Initial Thoughts: Before I read the NFL Edge I find time to do my own research and synthesize some of my thoughts about the game.
Tourney Winning Plays: Players who get enough volume and quality volume to post a tourney winning score on their own regardless of the game environment. Most DFS players will be building around these pieces.
Likely Game Environment and stacks within that environment to capitalize on in order to squeeze as many FPs as possible out of good games.
My Plays are the people I will be looking to roster from this game.
Leverage plays are written later in the week, like on Saturday, after I have gotten a full feel for the slate and know where I can gain leverage off of likely high ownership or -EV chalky spots.
Steelers at Panthers, Week 15
Trying to Win another Tourney! (213.64 POINTS!!!) – Scroll down for a better description of how and why I structure my game notes in this manner.
Initial Thoughts: This looks like an interesting game, but not for DFS. Najee Harris is the closest thing to a high volume player on these teams. CAR has a very split backfield. Neither passing attack is prolific and no one is likely to get more than 8 targets (maybe Diontae Johnson sees more at a very low aDot) in a game that pits two good defenses playing against bad offense. No interest here.
NEW*** Avoiding biases/Challenging preconceived notions:
Tourney Winning Plays:
Game Environment:
My Plays:
Leverage Plays:
At OWS, we look for the GAME ENVIRONMENTS that produce tourney winning scores. In addition, we need to know who the TOP PLAYS are (despite ownership) and not be afraid to play them! We look for ANGLES that allow us to fit the best plays into a lineup that is different. Finally, we need to be considering good LEVERAGE spots that we can take advantage of. That’s what I look for in this space.
How I structure my Notes:
Initial Thoughts: Before I read the NFL Edge I find time to do my own research and synthesize some of my thoughts about the game.
Tourney Winning Plays: Players who get enough volume and quality volume to post a tourney winning score on their own regardless of the game environment. Most DFS players will be building around these pieces.
Likely Game Environment and stacks within that environment to capitalize on in order to squeeze as many FPs as possible out of good games.
My Plays are the people I will be looking to roster from this game.
Leverage plays are written later in the week, like on Saturday, after I have gotten a full feel for the slate and know where I can gain leverage off of likely high ownership or -EV chalky spots.
Colts at Vikings, Week 15
Trying to Win a Small Slate – Scroll down for a better description of how and why I structure my game notes in this manner.
Initial Thoughts: 16, 17, 19 are the point totals for the IND offense the last 3 weeks. Not horrible, but they also allowed 17, 24, and 54. No matter the game environment, IND is struggling. THIS IS NOT LIKELY TO BE A SHOOTOUT OF ANY KIND! IND are coming off a bye week, but in a lost season I’m not sure as a team that the bye week will matter much. MIN is a top tier team and should have no problem winning this home game, but are there any angles for DFS? The most likely outcome is that MIN continues to work their pass game with some level of success and get stymied by the run matchup. In this case TJ Hock, Jefferson and Thielen will get plenty of targets and even without the TDs, they can rack up points for receptions and Jefferson is likely to go over the 100 yard bonus. IND will find some success against a weak pass rush, but putting up points without a strong run game has been difficult for them. I think this game will underwhelm and there are not a lot of paths to a high scoring affair or even a blowout.
NEW*** Avoiding biases/Challenging preconceived notions:
Tourney Winning Plays: Justin Jefferson (like Tyreek Hill) has a 30% target share overall, but in weeks 12 and 9 when they faced good run Ds with heavy zone concepts like IND plans to be, Jefferson saw an increase to 50% target share. Its likely Jefferson is counted on more than usual in this spot.
State of the Slate: One major decision point for this slate is whether to play Jefferson or Hill. Diggs target share doesn’t really increase (actually decreases) in lower total games. I would expect Diggs to be higher owned than the other two, and it might make sense to jam in both Hill and Jefferson. If not playing Diggs it makes sense to also fade Josh Allen which would point me towards a lower priced QB of whom there are many interesting ones. Huntley does not seem to be in concussion protocol according to his coaches who will be calling plays and he ran 9 times before exiting the game. Matt Ryan will be in pass mode vs. the Vikings who are not great at rushing the passer (4 sacks in last 4 games) and Watson is in play as well. The best RB situation is probably Taylor, but his team could be leaning on the pass eventually, so you don’t have to roster him and his chances of hurting you are not great. Chubb is an interesting case for people who want to fade the BAL offense. He is at home, but Watson’s presence hinders him a bit. He should go pretty low owned, but again I don’t see many paths to him putting this slate out of reach. With so many weak RBs, you could pair the BAL RBs together and hope they just dominate the run game there. James Cook, Mostert, and Singletary all have similar roles and would be cheaper ways to aim for 15 points. Dalvin Cook will likely be high owned and he is facing a tough run D as well. Not much to love at RB, but also not many plays that can kill you – roster whoever you want at RB. I dont know why you would play anyone but Andrews, Hockenson or Njoku at TE. Those three just have way more upside in good spots. Cheaper WRs from IND (Pittman and Campbell), DPJ (CLE), Duvernay/Robinson (BAL), Sherfield (MIA-target share is pretty impressive for such a low price) and Bills (G Davis, McKenzie) round out the choices most people will be looking to.
My Plays: I like the high priced WRs in Jefferson and Hill. I will be playing at least one and possibly both. This will likely keep me off Allen/Diggs rosters. I don’t like Tua vs. BUF and want some correlation (QB/WR) so Cousins is a natural fit as is Ryan + WR, Watson + WR/TE, Huntley + Andrews. A 3 max team where I roll one of each seems like a good play to me.
Leverage Plays:
At OWS, we look for the GAME ENVIRONMENTS that produce tourney winning scores. In addition, we need to know who the TOP PLAYS are (despite ownership) and not be afraid to play them! We look for ANGLES that allow us to fit the best plays into a lineup that is different. Finally, we need to be considering good LEVERAGE spots that we can take advantage of. That’s what I look for in this space.
How I structure my Notes:
Initial Thoughts: Before I read the NFL Edge I find time to do my own research and synthesize some of my thoughts about the game.
Tourney Winning Plays: Players who get enough volume and quality volume to post a tourney winning score on their own regardless of the game environment. Most DFS players will be building around these pieces.
Likely Game Environment and stacks within that environment to capitalize on in order to squeeze as many FPs as possible out of good games.
My Plays are the people I will be looking to roster from this game.
Leverage plays are written later in the week, like on Saturday, after I have gotten a full feel for the slate and know where I can gain leverage off of likely high ownership or -EV chalky spots.
Ravens at Browns, Week 15
Trying to Win a Small Slate – Scroll down for a better description of how and why I structure my game notes in this manner.
Initial Thoughts: We will have to see what QBs are healthy for this game, but the reality is that BAL has the run game and D to manage a game like this. The most likely story is that both teams start out with the goal of dominating the run game – both good offensively (BAL also good on run D) – and whoever falls behind (likely CLE) will have to turn to the passing game. The game would likely underwhelm if this were the case as # of plays would be low, BAL would spread out its touches/TD chances, and CLE WRs/TEs (namely Njoku, Cooper, DPJ) would get modest volume. Alternatively, BAL could recognize that CLE has a decent weapon in Deshaun Watson going into his 3rd game with the team. This could be more of a back and forth affair and/or BAL could up their aggressiveness realizing that Watson can engineer comebacks and does so regularly. This would provide a much more palatable DFS game.
NEW*** Avoiding biases/Challenging preconceived notions:
Tourney Winning Plays:
Game Environment:
My Plays:
Leverage Plays:
At OWS, we look for the GAME ENVIRONMENTS that produce tourney winning scores. In addition, we need to know who the TOP PLAYS are (despite ownership) and not be afraid to play them! We look for ANGLES that allow us to fit the best plays into a lineup that is different. Finally, we need to be considering good LEVERAGE spots that we can take advantage of. That’s what I look for in this space.
How I structure my Notes:
Initial Thoughts: Before I read the NFL Edge I find time to do my own research and synthesize some of my thoughts about the game.
Tourney Winning Plays: Players who get enough volume and quality volume to post a tourney winning score on their own regardless of the game environment. Most DFS players will be building around these pieces.
Likely Game Environment and stacks within that environment to capitalize on in order to squeeze as many FPs as possible out of good games.
My Plays are the people I will be looking to roster from this game.
Leverage plays are written later in the week, like on Saturday, after I have gotten a full feel for the slate and know where I can gain leverage off of likely high ownership or -EV chalky spots.
Dolphins at Bills, Week 15
Trying to Win a Small Slate – Scroll down for a better description of how and why I structure my game notes in this manner.
Initial Thoughts: This is the marquee matchup of the day. Similar to Thanksgiving day when BUF played DET, this game looks pretty appetizing for DFS. The only problem is that the Bills D has started to play up to their potential with guys getting healthy and their offense has the same abilities as LAC to control the time of possession and keep MIA off the field. Josh Allen will be able to roll out and find ways to expose the MIA secondary. BUF’s run game has gained a lot of confidence and while they like to leave the ball in Allen’s hands, the run game will be a weapon as a means of keeping MIA off the field and lengthening drives for BUF. Meanwhile, the BUF D can absolutely contend with the MIA pass game. It looks like BUF will have the tools to maintain possession in this game and create a lot of scoring opportunities and MIA will have to find a way to consistently hit Hill/Waddle for chunk gains. Both sides do have explosive players and this game could absolutely smash if MIA is able to push the tempo.
NEW*** Avoiding biases/Challenging preconceived notions: This game looks the most appealing because of the ability of these two teams in the passing game. Both teams are pass heavy so how could a low scoring game transpire? DET, CHI, CLE, HOU….MIA faced those teams all in a row – did that challenge the way we think about MIA and their abilities? Tyreek Hill also challenges our thinking in this spot because he can hit for a high DFS score (30+) even without a high team total.
Tourney Winning Plays: Josh Allen is involved in all aspects of this Bills offense. Tyreek Hill has 50% of the target share in the last two weeks in games MIA has trailed (and vs. solid Ds) which is especially pertinent this week.
Game Environment:
My Plays:
Leverage Plays:
At OWS, we look for the GAME ENVIRONMENTS that produce tourney winning scores. In addition, we need to know who the TOP PLAYS are (despite ownership) and not be afraid to play them! We look for ANGLES that allow us to fit the best plays into a lineup that is different. Finally, we need to be considering good LEVERAGE spots that we can take advantage of. That’s what I look for in this space.
How I structure my Notes:
Initial Thoughts: Before I read the NFL Edge I find time to do my own research and synthesize some of my thoughts about the game.
Tourney Winning Plays: Players who get enough volume and quality volume to post a tourney winning score on their own regardless of the game environment. Most DFS players will be building around these pieces.
Likely Game Environment and stacks within that environment to capitalize on in order to squeeze as many FPs as possible out of good games.
My Plays are the people I will be looking to roster from this game.
Leverage plays are written later in the week, like on Saturday, after I have gotten a full feel for the slate and know where I can gain leverage off of likely high ownership or -EV chalky spots.
Chiefs at Broncos, Week 14
Trying to Win another Tourney! (213.64 POINTS!!!) – Scroll down for a better description of how and why I structure my game notes in this manner.
Initial Thoughts: My initial reaction is that this game is a stay away on the full slate. The Chiefs face a difficult pass D on the road and they are a hard time to get right anyways. The Broncos are just not good. Chiefs D may be the way to go?
NEW*** Avoiding biases/Challenging preconceived notions:
Tourney Winning Plays:
Game Environment:
My Plays:
Leverage Plays:
At OWS, we look for the GAME ENVIRONMENTS that produce tourney winning scores. In addition, we need to know who the TOP PLAYS are (despite ownership) and not be afraid to play them! We look for ANGLES that allow us to fit the best plays into a lineup that is different. Finally, we need to be considering good LEVERAGE spots that we can take advantage of. That’s what I look for in this space.
How I structure my Notes:
Initial Thoughts: Before I read the NFL Edge I find time to do my own research and synthesize some of my thoughts about the game.
Tourney Winning Plays: Players who get enough volume and quality volume to post a tourney winning score on their own regardless of the game environment. Most DFS players will be building around these pieces.
Likely Game Environment and stacks within that environment to capitalize on in order to squeeze as many FPs as possible out of good games.
My Plays are the people I will be looking to roster from this game.
Leverage plays are written later in the week, like on Saturday, after I have gotten a full feel for the slate and know where I can gain leverage off of likely high ownership or -EV chalky spots.
Panthers at Seahawks, Week 14
Trying to Win another Tourney! (213.64 POINTS!!!) – Scroll down for a better description of how and why I structure my game notes in this manner.
Initial Thoughts: Who are the Panthers? Well, the one decent offense they have played in the last 6 weeks was CIN and they allowed 41 points. Otherwise they have been facing some pretty terrible offensive teams that are totally okay playing slow. Who are the Seahawks? Well, they are a team that recently travelled to play in Europe, came back to lose a crazy OT game to Josh Jacobs and handled a depleted (but strong run D) LAR team last week. Practice time has been at a bit of a premium I’m guessing. The Seahawks (and Pete Carroll) are a team that is taught to play each game according to their particular style of play and hopefully they perfect that style towards the end of the season – a style that keeps them competing in every game. It sometimes makes games against lesser opponents closer. That’s important here because the Panthers are certainly a lesser opponent. CAR will allow SEA to score a lot of points if SEA is playing in such a way. SEA does not accumulate a lot of plays per game (they don’t play fast) but CAR is last in that category. SEA will be able to control the ball early in this game. SEA will be able to force CAR into turnovers or punts early in this game. SEA should then be in control and if CAR plays up to expectations, they will allow SEA to score a bunch of points. SEA will likely allow CAR to continuously come back (or at least drive the field and accumulate yards until they get into the red zone), they are not likely to put the game out of reach.
NEW*** Avoiding biases/Challenging preconceived notions:
Tourney Winning Plays: It wouldn’t surprise anyone if Geno Smith nears 5x his salary in this game. Smith will almost certainly bring a WR with him. Lockett is cheaper and healthier.
Game Environment:
My Plays: Geno Smith + Lockett (or DK) and I’m thinking of stacking the cheap RB as well. It wouldn’t surprise me if Tony Jones Jr. gets 15+ touches and some receptions should SEA be without Williams and others. DJ Moore would be an obvious bring back, but his volume is lacking in most games. I would hope for a spike here.
Leverage Plays:
At OWS, we look for the GAME ENVIRONMENTS that produce tourney winning scores. In addition, we need to know who the TOP PLAYS are (despite ownership) and not be afraid to play them! We look for ANGLES that allow us to fit the best plays into a lineup that is different. Finally, we need to be considering good LEVERAGE spots that we can take advantage of. That’s what I look for in this space.
How I structure my Notes:
Initial Thoughts: Before I read the NFL Edge I find time to do my own research and synthesize some of my thoughts about the game.
Tourney Winning Plays: Players who get enough volume and quality volume to post a tourney winning score on their own regardless of the game environment. Most DFS players will be building around these pieces.
Likely Game Environment and stacks within that environment to capitalize on in order to squeeze as many FPs as possible out of good games.
My Plays are the people I will be looking to roster from this game.
Leverage plays are written later in the week, like on Saturday, after I have gotten a full feel for the slate and know where I can gain leverage off of likely high ownership or -EV chalky spots.
Jaguars at Titans, Week 14
Trying to Win another Tourney! (213.64 POINTS!!!) – Scroll down for a better description of how and why I structure my game notes in this manner.
Initial Thoughts: Both of these teams would prefer to run the ball, but are not averse to passing. Both Ds provide their opponents with enough reasons to simply commit to the pass. We have seen plenty of teams pass heavily against TEN and against JAX. This has the makings of a pass heavy game script both ways. This game environment smells like a shootout waiting to happen as long as JAX can jump out to some sort of lead. TEN in the lead would spell trouble for this game environment. The pass catchers are also fairly cheap. Good matchups for WRs and low prices in a game where both teams will find success in the pass game more so than running. Check.
NEW*** Avoiding biases/Challenging preconceived notions:
Tourney Winning Plays:
Game Environment:
My Plays:
Leverage Plays:
At OWS, we look for the GAME ENVIRONMENTS that produce tourney winning scores. In addition, we need to know who the TOP PLAYS are (despite ownership) and not be afraid to play them! We look for ANGLES that allow us to fit the best plays into a lineup that is different. Finally, we need to be considering good LEVERAGE spots that we can take advantage of. That’s what I look for in this space.
How I structure my Notes:
Initial Thoughts: Before I read the NFL Edge I find time to do my own research and synthesize some of my thoughts about the game.
Tourney Winning Plays: Players who get enough volume and quality volume to post a tourney winning score on their own regardless of the game environment. Most DFS players will be building around these pieces.
Likely Game Environment and stacks within that environment to capitalize on in order to squeeze as many FPs as possible out of good games.
My Plays are the people I will be looking to roster from this game.
Leverage plays are written later in the week, like on Saturday, after I have gotten a full feel for the slate and know where I can gain leverage off of likely high ownership or -EV chalky spots.
Ravens at Steelers, Week 14
Trying to Win another Tourney! (213.64 POINTS!!!) – Scroll down for a better description of how and why I structure my game notes in this manner.
Initial Thoughts: BAL should have the backup QB, Lamar lite, Tyler Huntley. At $5,500 he can probably do here nearly what Lamar can do. LJs highest scoring day since week 3 has been 24. The team is succeeding with slow pace of play and a dominant run game. No reason that should change much here unless THIS is the week PITs offense finally puts something together….? If PIT can create some early scoring opportunities and push BAL to get aggressive with Huntley-Andrews, this game could provide a decent scoring environment. It would look something like Pickens hitting on some big throws early, Huntley possibly turning the ball over and allowing PIT to go up 14-0 or 13-0 in the first quarter. BAL might pick up the pace and while Huntley hones in on a 100 yard rushing and 200 passing day (21 points right there) Pickens could be at 3/80/1 by halftime (17 points)
NEW*** Avoiding biases/Challenging preconceived notions:
Tourney Winning Plays: Tyler Huntley (5.5k) is going to get 7-10 rushing attempts and 30+ passes most often in this game. PIT has a good defense, but it is very possible that a) BAL D shuts down PIT and is able to score enough points for Huntley to matter in tourneys or b) PIT jumps out to a lead and the pace of play speeds up a bit, helping Huntley accumulate points.
Game Environment: BAL likes to play slow if they are out in front. That type of game environment would really kill any DFS value here. Any other game environment (close game, PIT in front) would likely produce enough DFS points to matter. The ceiling for scoring isn’t that high in most environments.
My Plays: I will be looking at Huntley + 1s (Robinson, Duvernay or Andrews) likely paired with a PIT WR (Pickens with the big play upside is my favorite).
Leverage Plays:
At OWS, we look for the GAME ENVIRONMENTS that produce tourney winning scores. In addition, we need to know who the TOP PLAYS are (despite ownership) and not be afraid to play them! We look for ANGLES that allow us to fit the best plays into a lineup that is different. Finally, we need to be considering good LEVERAGE spots that we can take advantage of. That’s what I look for in this space.
How I structure my Notes:
Initial Thoughts: Before I read the NFL Edge I find time to do my own research and synthesize some of my thoughts about the game.
Tourney Winning Plays: Players who get enough volume and quality volume to post a tourney winning score on their own regardless of the game environment. Most DFS players will be building around these pieces.
Likely Game Environment and stacks within that environment to capitalize on in order to squeeze as many FPs as possible out of good games.
My Plays are the people I will be looking to roster from this game.
Leverage plays are written later in the week, like on Saturday, after I have gotten a full feel for the slate and know where I can gain leverage off of likely high ownership or -EV chalky spots.
Eagles at Giants, Week 14
Trying to Win another Tourney! (213.64 POINTS!!!) – Scroll down for a better description of how and why I structure my game notes in this manner.
Initial Thoughts: The NYG great offense has sputtered quite a few times this year. Perhaps being led by D Jones and Saquon B is not that dynamic. The Eagles have multiple weapons and should use pass/run and QB scrambles to move the ball and put up points. I don’t like choosing players from games at NYG – they are never high scoring. D Jones however can always put up a 30 pointer with the help of his rushing ability. I would expect an in control PHI team that doesn’t have to push it much through the air to score.
NEW*** Avoiding biases/Challenging preconceived notions:
Tourney Winning Plays:
Game Environment:
My Plays:
Leverage Plays:
At OWS, we look for the GAME ENVIRONMENTS that produce tourney winning scores. In addition, we need to know who the TOP PLAYS are (despite ownership) and not be afraid to play them! We look for ANGLES that allow us to fit the best plays into a lineup that is different. Finally, we need to be considering good LEVERAGE spots that we can take advantage of. That’s what I look for in this space.
How I structure my Notes:
Initial Thoughts: Before I read the NFL Edge I find time to do my own research and synthesize some of my thoughts about the game.
Tourney Winning Plays: Players who get enough volume and quality volume to post a tourney winning score on their own regardless of the game environment. Most DFS players will be building around these pieces.
Likely Game Environment and stacks within that environment to capitalize on in order to squeeze as many FPs as possible out of good games.
My Plays are the people I will be looking to roster from this game.
Leverage plays are written later in the week, like on Saturday, after I have gotten a full feel for the slate and know where I can gain leverage off of likely high ownership or -EV chalky spots.
Vikings at Lions, Week 14
Trying to Win another Tourney! (213.64 POINTS!!!) – Scroll down for a better description of how and why I structure my game notes in this manner.
Initial Thoughts: The Lions at home have been money recently. They are emerging as a good team and I think we are behind the curve if we are just starting to realize that now. If Goff is given time to throw – and his offensive line plus MIN D should provide that – his offense will thrive. MIN is a great offensive team with a small distribution of targets and touches on offense. They should have success here. I would predict a DET win in this spot, 35-31 kinda score.
NEW*** Avoiding biases/Challenging preconceived notions:
Tourney Winning Plays:
Game Environment:
My Plays:
Leverage Plays:
At OWS, we look for the GAME ENVIRONMENTS that produce tourney winning scores. In addition, we need to know who the TOP PLAYS are (despite ownership) and not be afraid to play them! We look for ANGLES that allow us to fit the best plays into a lineup that is different. Finally, we need to be considering good LEVERAGE spots that we can take advantage of. That’s what I look for in this space.
How I structure my Notes:
Initial Thoughts: Before I read the NFL Edge I find time to do my own research and synthesize some of my thoughts about the game.
Tourney Winning Plays: Players who get enough volume and quality volume to post a tourney winning score on their own regardless of the game environment. Most DFS players will be building around these pieces.
Likely Game Environment and stacks within that environment to capitalize on in order to squeeze as many FPs as possible out of good games.
My Plays are the people I will be looking to roster from this game.
Leverage plays are written later in the week, like on Saturday, after I have gotten a full feel for the slate and know where I can gain leverage off of likely high ownership or -EV chalky spots.
Texans at Cowboys, Week 14
Trying to Win another Tourney! (213.64 POINTS!!!) – Scroll down for a better description of how and why I structure my game notes in this manner.
Initial Thoughts: Cowboys crush is the only possible option here. It will most likely be through their two running backs, but it also could be through the air.
NEW*** Avoiding biases/Challenging preconceived notions:
Tourney Winning Plays:
Game Environment:
My Plays:
Leverage Plays:
At OWS, we look for the GAME ENVIRONMENTS that produce tourney winning scores. In addition, we need to know who the TOP PLAYS are (despite ownership) and not be afraid to play them! We look for ANGLES that allow us to fit the best plays into a lineup that is different. Finally, we need to be considering good LEVERAGE spots that we can take advantage of. That’s what I look for in this space.
How I structure my Notes:
Initial Thoughts: Before I read the NFL Edge I find time to do my own research and synthesize some of my thoughts about the game.
Tourney Winning Plays: Players who get enough volume and quality volume to post a tourney winning score on their own regardless of the game environment. Most DFS players will be building around these pieces.
Likely Game Environment and stacks within that environment to capitalize on in order to squeeze as many FPs as possible out of good games.
My Plays are the people I will be looking to roster from this game.
Leverage plays are written later in the week, like on Saturday, after I have gotten a full feel for the slate and know where I can gain leverage off of likely high ownership or -EV chalky spots.
Browns at Bengals, Week 14
Trying to Win another Tourney! (213.64 POINTS!!!) – Scroll down for a better description of how and why I structure my game notes in this manner.
Initial Thoughts: CIN is back on top and they are going to go into this game as a heavy favorite. CLE has a competitive running game, but I just don’t think they will be able to stop a healthy CIN offense. CLE will likely be passing in catch up mode. It is possible CLE has success – they have some weapons – and this game turns into a bit of a shootout. It is also highly possible CLE controls the clock or vice versa and the total plays come under the expectation and limit the offensive goodness.
NEW*** Avoiding biases/Challenging preconceived notions: Watson may have looked bad, but he is far behind the players who have been active for 13 weeks. Still, he is a professional and his second week of the season is when things will start making a little more sense. I expect Watson’s play to make a little more sense this week, meaning he should push CIN on the scoreboard, at least a little bit.
Tourney Winning Plays: Joe Burrow has put up tourney winning scores multiple times this season. He is facing a bad CLE D and should probably be in consideration every week.
Game Environment: It would be surprising if Burrow and co. did not have success again this week, but its a rivalry game in division and CLE stopped CIN last time. Still, this is a new game and CIN is at full strength. They should do well. CLE likewise has a shot at doing well, but the play of their QB is unpredictable this new into his tenure as starting QB.
My Plays:
Leverage Plays:
At OWS, we look for the GAME ENVIRONMENTS that produce tourney winning scores. In addition, we need to know who the TOP PLAYS are (despite ownership) and not be afraid to play them! We look for ANGLES that allow us to fit the best plays into a lineup that is different. Finally, we need to be considering good LEVERAGE spots that we can take advantage of. That’s what I look for in this space.
How I structure my Notes:
Initial Thoughts: Before I read the NFL Edge I find time to do my own research and synthesize some of my thoughts about the game.
Tourney Winning Plays: Players who get enough volume and quality volume to post a tourney winning score on their own regardless of the game environment. Most DFS players will be building around these pieces.
Likely Game Environment and stacks within that environment to capitalize on in order to squeeze as many FPs as possible out of good games.
My Plays are the people I will be looking to roster from this game.
Leverage plays are written later in the week, like on Saturday, after I have gotten a full feel for the slate and know where I can gain leverage off of likely high ownership or -EV chalky spots.
Jets at Bills, Week 14
Trying to Win another Tourney! (213.64 POINTS!!!) – Scroll down for a better description of how and why I structure my game notes in this manner.
Initial Thoughts: The Bills D is getting back to their great/elite status with a run first, but pass heavy if the need be Jets offense. Mike White had pretty good games vs. CHI and with big volume vs. MIN. I don’t expect that to happen again. BUF will have plenty of opportunities to attack the NYJ tough D, but its the Bills and Josh Allen…they are going to do their thing.
NEW*** Avoiding biases/Challenging preconceived notions:
Tourney Winning Plays: Garrett Wilson, if NYJ are indeed trailing and needing to pass, will get 8-10+ targets and has the ability to do a lot of damage in terms of yards gained with those targets. The Bills are a tough opponent, but at Wilson’s price (5.9k) he should be considered. No one would be surprised in Josh Allen puts up 40 points here and if so he is likely bringing one of his pass catchers with him. He is matchup proof, but the floor is also a mid 20s score which would make winning a tourney difficult.
Game Environment: The Bills are likely to utilize all their weapons to drive the field and put up TDs in the red zone. NYJ will quickly be forced to the air (BUF rush D is also good) and it will be hit or miss with their success. It is hard to believe that NYJ will be efficient enough to continuously beat this BUF D. On the other hand, BUF has that ability. If BUF fails to score, this game will be low scoring and likely disappoint.
My Plays: I will look at rostering Josh Allen and 1 WR with a Wilson bring back. I’m not sure that’s a particularly sharp roster, but it can definitely win you a tournament. I will also look at playing James Cook on his own. He is obviously a big part of this offense’s plans moving forward and he frees up salary at other positions.
Leverage Plays:
At OWS, we look for the GAME ENVIRONMENTS that produce tourney winning scores. In addition, we need to know who the TOP PLAYS are (despite ownership) and not be afraid to play them! We look for ANGLES that allow us to fit the best plays into a lineup that is different. Finally, we need to be considering good LEVERAGE spots that we can take advantage of. That’s what I look for in this space.
How I structure my Notes:
Initial Thoughts: Before I read the NFL Edge I find time to do my own research and synthesize some of my thoughts about the game.
Tourney Winning Plays: Players who get enough volume and quality volume to post a tourney winning score on their own regardless of the game environment. Most DFS players will be building around these pieces.
Likely Game Environment and stacks within that environment to capitalize on in order to squeeze as many FPs as possible out of good games.
My Plays are the people I will be looking to roster from this game.
Leverage plays are written later in the week, like on Saturday, after I have gotten a full feel for the slate and know where I can gain leverage off of likely high ownership or -EV chalky spots.
Raiders at Rams, Week 14
Trying to Win a Showdown – Scroll down for a better description of how and why I structure my game notes in this manner.
Initial Thoughts: The Rams are going to get better despite the major losses on offense. Their offense had become pretty one dimensional anyways. LV has a bad defense we keep hearing, mostly in the passing game department, but the run D isn’t very good either. LAR should find ways to move the ball and stay competitive from an offensive standpoint. LV will compete with the help of Jacobs (injury concerns and a short week lead me to want to fade him here) and Davante. LAR QB is averaged 12 yards per completion last week.
NEW*** Avoiding biases/Challenging preconceived notions:
Tourney Winning Plays:
Game Environment:
My Plays:
Leverage Plays:
At OWS, we look for the GAME ENVIRONMENTS that produce tourney winning scores. In addition, we need to know who the TOP PLAYS are (despite ownership) and not be afraid to play them! We look for ANGLES that allow us to fit the best plays into a lineup that is different. Finally, we need to be considering good LEVERAGE spots that we can take advantage of. That’s what I look for in this space.
How I structure my Notes:
Initial Thoughts: Before I read the NFL Edge I find time to do my own research and synthesize some of my thoughts about the game.
Tourney Winning Plays: Players who get enough volume and quality volume to post a tourney winning score on their own regardless of the game environment. Most DFS players will be building around these pieces.
Likely Game Environment and stacks within that environment to capitalize on in order to squeeze as many FPs as possible out of good games.
My Plays are the people I will be looking to roster from this game.
Leverage plays are written later in the week, like on Saturday, after I have gotten a full feel for the slate and know where I can gain leverage off of likely high ownership or -EV chalky spots.
Chargers at Raiders, Week 13
Trying to Win another Tourney! (213.64 POINTS!!!) – Scroll down for a better description of how and why I structure my game notes in this manner.
Initial Thoughts: Both offenses are capable in this game and neither defense is really that good. LV would love to exploit the bad running D of LA and LA would love to exploit the bad pass D of LV. This is a game where both teams are poised to excel offensively. We know the Raiders will look to Jacobs/Adams as a way to move the ball and score TDs. LAC has a good cast of pass catchers and all should be involved in this potentially high scoring affair.
NEW*** Avoiding biases/Challenging preconceived notions: Are there any paths to a lower scoring affair. You can look to the LAC-ATL game where ATL ran the ball 35 times and essentially shortened the game. LV could do just that.
Tourney Winning Plays:
Game Environment:
My Plays:
Leverage Plays:
At OWS, we look for the GAME ENVIRONMENTS that produce tourney winning scores. In addition, we need to know who the TOP PLAYS are (despite ownership) and not be afraid to play them! We look for ANGLES that allow us to fit the best plays into a lineup that is different. Finally, we need to be considering good LEVERAGE spots that we can take advantage of. That’s what I look for in this space.
How I structure my Notes:
Initial Thoughts: Before I read the NFL Edge I find time to do my own research and synthesize some of my thoughts about the game.
Tourney Winning Plays: Players who get enough volume and quality volume to post a tourney winning score on their own regardless of the game environment. Most DFS players will be building around these pieces.
Likely Game Environment and stacks within that environment to capitalize on in order to squeeze as many FPs as possible out of good games.
My Plays are the people I will be looking to roster from this game.
Leverage plays are written later in the week, like on Saturday, after I have gotten a full feel for the slate and know where I can gain leverage off of likely high ownership or -EV chalky spots.
Chiefs at Bengals, Week 13
Trying to Win another Tourney! (213.64 POINTS!!!) – Scroll down for a better description of how and why I structure my game notes in this manner.
Initial Thoughts: This looks like a game that a majority of rosters will be “accounting for” as they make their lineups. Both teams operate pass heavy attacks and both have defenses that can be exploited in the pass game. While KC is always pass heavy based on their QB and offensive weapons, CIN seems to take what the defense gives them and adopt to the game environment. KC spreads the ball out well between all of their pass catchers, but Mahomes/Kelce is usually heavily involved in the game plan. CIN will focus on Burrow to Chase/Higgins/Boyd and run the ball plenty with Joe Mixon (unless they are getting beat badly). As JM reminds us all the time, this game will go under the 52 total half the time. If neither team jumps out to a lead it could take till the 4th quarter for either team to get aggressive. This game does set up well for a shootout. It is not hard to imagine Mahomes getting on a roll or Burrows hitting some big plays to Chase and forcing the other team to up the aggressiveness. It is obviously a good spot, but you are spending 16k to get the guys you likely need on KC and adding 8k to get Chase. You would really need each of those players to put up 30+ to be in the hunt for a tourney winner. The game would really need to go off and might require a big over stack to vault you up the standings in a game with highly owned players.
NEW*** Avoiding biases/Challenging preconceived notions:
Tourney Winning Plays: Kelce, Juju, Burrow, Chase
Game Environment:
My Plays:
Leverage Plays:
At OWS, we look for the GAME ENVIRONMENTS that produce tourney winning scores. In addition, we need to know who the TOP PLAYS are (despite ownership) and not be afraid to play them! We look for ANGLES that allow us to fit the best plays into a lineup that is different. Finally, we need to be considering good LEVERAGE spots that we can take advantage of. That’s what I look for in this space.
How I structure my Notes:
Initial Thoughts: Before I read the NFL Edge I find time to do my own research and synthesize some of my thoughts about the game.
Tourney Winning Plays: Players who get enough volume and quality volume to post a tourney winning score on their own regardless of the game environment. Most DFS players will be building around these pieces.
Likely Game Environment and stacks within that environment to capitalize on in order to squeeze as many FPs as possible out of good games.
My Plays are the people I will be looking to roster from this game.
Leverage plays are written later in the week, like on Saturday, after I have gotten a full feel for the slate and know where I can gain leverage off of likely high ownership or -EV chalky spots.
Dolphins at 49ers, Week 13
Trying to Win another Tourney! (213.64 POINTS!!!) – Scroll down for a better description of how and why I structure my game notes in this manner.
Initial Thoughts: This could be a fun game. SF has all the weapons to compete with the MIA weapons. SF does have a good offense, but I wonder if they are able to slow down MIA. Again, we are going to be betting on which elite athletes can perform against a tough defense. The ceiling is still the same for Hill, Waddle, Tua and SF has a lot of players who will put up big scores if the volume is there. Basically, if Hill and Tua can hit some big plays or better yet, keep feeding that connection, players like CMC, Kittle, Deebo, Aiyuk will be good bets for big scores.
NEW*** Avoiding biases/Challenging preconceived notions:
Tourney Winning Plays: Hill, CMC
Game Environment:
My Plays:
Leverage Plays:
At OWS, we look for the GAME ENVIRONMENTS that produce tourney winning scores. In addition, we need to know who the TOP PLAYS are (despite ownership) and not be afraid to play them! We look for ANGLES that allow us to fit the best plays into a lineup that is different. Finally, we need to be considering good LEVERAGE spots that we can take advantage of. That’s what I look for in this space.
How I structure my Notes:
Initial Thoughts: Before I read the NFL Edge I find time to do my own research and synthesize some of my thoughts about the game.
Tourney Winning Plays: Players who get enough volume and quality volume to post a tourney winning score on their own regardless of the game environment. Most DFS players will be building around these pieces.
Likely Game Environment and stacks within that environment to capitalize on in order to squeeze as many FPs as possible out of good games.
My Plays are the people I will be looking to roster from this game.
Leverage plays are written later in the week, like on Saturday, after I have gotten a full feel for the slate and know where I can gain leverage off of likely high ownership or -EV chalky spots.
Seahawks at Rams, Week 13
Trying to Win another Tourney! (213.64 POINTS!!!) – Scroll down for a better description of how and why I structure my game notes in this manner.
Initial Thoughts: The Seahawks are going to have to execute complete drives in order to score. They have the tools to do it, but they have to avoid penalties, mistakes, bad luck. It’s not going to be easy for the Hawks to score in this game. Meanwhile, LAR are not a good offense so it shouldn’t be too hard to stop them. Low scoring game?
NEW*** Avoiding biases/Challenging preconceived notions:
Tourney Winning Plays: none
Game Environment: slow and no incentive for Hawks to keep playing when they have the lead.
My Plays: none
Leverage Plays:
At OWS, we look for the GAME ENVIRONMENTS that produce tourney winning scores. In addition, we need to know who the TOP PLAYS are (despite ownership) and not be afraid to play them! We look for ANGLES that allow us to fit the best plays into a lineup that is different. Finally, we need to be considering good LEVERAGE spots that we can take advantage of. That’s what I look for in this space.
How I structure my Notes:
Initial Thoughts: Before I read the NFL Edge I find time to do my own research and synthesize some of my thoughts about the game.
Tourney Winning Plays: Players who get enough volume and quality volume to post a tourney winning score on their own regardless of the game environment. Most DFS players will be building around these pieces.
Likely Game Environment and stacks within that environment to capitalize on in order to squeeze as many FPs as possible out of good games.
My Plays are the people I will be looking to roster from this game.
Leverage plays are written later in the week, like on Saturday, after I have gotten a full feel for the slate and know where I can gain leverage off of likely high ownership or -EV chalky spots.
Titans at Eagles, Week 13
Trying to Win another Tourney! (213.64 POINTS!!!) – Scroll down for a better description of how and why I structure my game notes in this manner.
Initial Thoughts: Titans will run it and push the Eagles to defend that run. PHI is going to be forced to throw to win, but they should be able to exploit TENs defense in multiple ways. They just need to be precise. TEN has a better offense with Burks who is still only $4,600. AJ Brown is an elite athlete who I am sure wants to show off his new team to his old teammates. This is yet another game that could be higher scoring if these elite athletes can perform.
NEW*** Avoiding biases/Challenging preconceived notions:
Tourney Winning Plays: Devonta Smith has dominated the target share since Goedert has been out. He is priced recently and if Hurts does throw 35+ times it seems very likely Smith is at 10+ targets. He gets red zone targets as well.
Game Environment: I am assuming the Eagles will try to attack mainly through the air or at least tilt pass heavy. They have 2 good WRs and Hurts can still scramble off the pass plays. Titans are more easily attacked through the air. PHI has to fix their run D in order for this game to provide enough fantasy goodness. PHI has to be able to stop Henry (or Henry is breaking off big chunk gains that go for TDs) in order for them to have enough possession to get to 35 passes for Hurts.
My Plays: I will strongly look at Devonta Smith at only 6.2k here. In a pass funnel matchup with a pass heavy attack he should get 10+ targets and he should be fairly efficient with his receptions, catching 7-10 balls and getting close to 100 or over. If he scores a TD (seems reasonable) he can score 26 points without even having a great day. If I have 2 Smith lineups in a 3max, I will have one AJ Brown lineup too. Burks is a good bring back and so is Derrick Henry who could break off some big gains for TDs and really send this game into overdrive.
Leverage Plays:
At OWS, we look for the GAME ENVIRONMENTS that produce tourney winning scores. In addition, we need to know who the TOP PLAYS are (despite ownership) and not be afraid to play them! We look for ANGLES that allow us to fit the best plays into a lineup that is different. Finally, we need to be considering good LEVERAGE spots that we can take advantage of. That’s what I look for in this space.
How I structure my Notes:
Initial Thoughts: Before I read the NFL Edge I find time to do my own research and synthesize some of my thoughts about the game.
Tourney Winning Plays: Players who get enough volume and quality volume to post a tourney winning score on their own regardless of the game environment. Most DFS players will be building around these pieces.
Likely Game Environment and stacks within that environment to capitalize on in order to squeeze as many FPs as possible out of good games.
My Plays are the people I will be looking to roster from this game.
Leverage plays are written later in the week, like on Saturday, after I have gotten a full feel for the slate and know where I can gain leverage off of likely high ownership or -EV chalky spots.
Commanders at Giants, Week 13
Trying to Win another Tourney! (213.64 POINTS!!!) – Scroll down for a better description of how and why I structure my game notes in this manner.
Initial Thoughts: I don’t like rostering players from games held in NYG. Daniel Jones is the ONLY guy I would have interest in and that would be if no other QBs stood out this week as possible 30+ point plays.
NEW*** Avoiding biases/Challenging preconceived notions:
Tourney Winning Plays:
Game Environment:
My Plays:
Leverage Plays:
At OWS, we look for the GAME ENVIRONMENTS that produce tourney winning scores. In addition, we need to know who the TOP PLAYS are (despite ownership) and not be afraid to play them! We look for ANGLES that allow us to fit the best plays into a lineup that is different. Finally, we need to be considering good LEVERAGE spots that we can take advantage of. That’s what I look for in this space.
How I structure my Notes:
Initial Thoughts: Before I read the NFL Edge I find time to do my own research and synthesize some of my thoughts about the game.
Tourney Winning Plays: Players who get enough volume and quality volume to post a tourney winning score on their own regardless of the game environment. Most DFS players will be building around these pieces.
Likely Game Environment and stacks within that environment to capitalize on in order to squeeze as many FPs as possible out of good games.
My Plays are the people I will be looking to roster from this game.
Leverage plays are written later in the week, like on Saturday, after I have gotten a full feel for the slate and know where I can gain leverage off of likely high ownership or -EV chalky spots.
Jets at Vikings, Week 13
Trying to Win another Tourney! (213.64 POINTS!!!) – Scroll down for a better description of how and why I structure my game notes in this manner.
Initial Thoughts: The Jets have that good pass D and pass rush. They should give MIN and Cousins some problems. The Jets have every ability to hit for some big plays with their athletic WRs. If betting on this game to be high scoring its pretty easy to figure out. If going here you expect Mike White (5.4k) is probably throwing for 300 yards and 3 TDs again (on 30 attempts) and Wilson is going to be a big part of that. An elite athlete like Jefferson always has a high ceiling especially if the Jets are succeeding – its likely he and/or Hockenson are having good games.
NEW*** Avoiding biases/Challenging preconceived notions:
Tourney Winning Plays: Justin Jefferson, TJ Hockenson. Both are primary foci in the passing game therefore getting tons of targets and usually picking up yards and sometimes TDs. Same is true even in this tougher game.
Game Environment: The Jets would like to run and throw short passes. They will probably force MIN to rely on short passes as well and they have a good defense with an ability perhaps to dictate that more. Both teams will need to sustain drives in order to score, but they both have the ability to do that. Still, the game wont be as fast paced as many others which leads to shootouts.
My Plays: maybe Garret Wilson again. TJ Hockenson is expensive but also has an ability to break the slate at TE. Who is Zonovan Knight and how will we know if he is the lead back?
Leverage Plays:
At OWS, we look for the GAME ENVIRONMENTS that produce tourney winning scores. In addition, we need to know who the TOP PLAYS are (despite ownership) and not be afraid to play them! We look for ANGLES that allow us to fit the best plays into a lineup that is different. Finally, we need to be considering good LEVERAGE spots that we can take advantage of. That’s what I look for in this space.
How I structure my Notes:
Initial Thoughts: Before I read the NFL Edge I find time to do my own research and synthesize some of my thoughts about the game.
Tourney Winning Plays: Players who get enough volume and quality volume to post a tourney winning score on their own regardless of the game environment. Most DFS players will be building around these pieces.
Likely Game Environment and stacks within that environment to capitalize on in order to squeeze as many FPs as possible out of good games.
My Plays are the people I will be looking to roster from this game.
Leverage plays are written later in the week, like on Saturday, after I have gotten a full feel for the slate and know where I can gain leverage off of likely high ownership or -EV chalky spots.
Browns at Texans, Week 13
Trying to Win another Tourney! (213.64 POINTS!!!) – Scroll down for a better description of how and why I structure my game notes in this manner.
Initial Thoughts: Great run team. Bad run D. A few teams have run for over 300, and with TDs going to RBs that’s a lot of points between Chubb, Hunt. The Browns even love to run, but games are slow as a result. Chubb has to get his on chunk gains during the times he is playing, which could always happen. The Texans are facing a worse defense than themselves in terms of DVOA. Maybe the Texans are in play. Ultimately this game will run too slow to really matter.
NEW*** Avoiding biases/Challenging preconceived notions:
Tourney Winning Plays: Nick Chubb has a really nice floor in this game. It would not surprise me if he finishes the first quarter with 80 rushing yards and a TD (14 points).
Game Environment: CLE will run the ball and bleed the clock as long as they can and/or need to. Watson will be given his opportunities, but given the likelihood that CEL takes a lead and the Texans are chasing them, CLE won’t need to pass much. HOU will eventually be forced to pass, but they probably won’t have the ball enough.
My Plays: Nick Chubb provides slight leverage on McCaffrey, Ekeler, Henry, Josh Jacobs owners. Chubb could easily outscore them. I don’t think I will play Watson unless I do 2 Chubb and one Watson-Amari stack.
Leverage Plays:
At OWS, we look for the GAME ENVIRONMENTS that produce tourney winning scores. In addition, we need to know who the TOP PLAYS are (despite ownership) and not be afraid to play them! We look for ANGLES that allow us to fit the best plays into a lineup that is different. Finally, we need to be considering good LEVERAGE spots that we can take advantage of. That’s what I look for in this space.
How I structure my Notes:
Initial Thoughts: Before I read the NFL Edge I find time to do my own research and synthesize some of my thoughts about the game.
Tourney Winning Plays: Players who get enough volume and quality volume to post a tourney winning score on their own regardless of the game environment. Most DFS players will be building around these pieces.
Likely Game Environment and stacks within that environment to capitalize on in order to squeeze as many FPs as possible out of good games.
My Plays are the people I will be looking to roster from this game.
Leverage plays are written later in the week, like on Saturday, after I have gotten a full feel for the slate and know where I can gain leverage off of likely high ownership or -EV chalky spots.
Jaguars at Lions, Week 13
Trying to Win another Tourney! (213.64 POINTS!!!) – Scroll down for a better description of how and why I structure my game notes in this manner.
Initial Thoughts: The Jags have a pretty good team and they seem to be well coached. They are “in” every game because they have a pretty good defense. They can also score points on good days. The pass game is not primary for JAX, but the running game is pretty banged up right now. (Hasty becomes a strong play if Etienne is out) Detroit’s offense should find success doing what they do in a home game, but JAX is good enough to limit them from scoring too many TDs to put the slate out of reach. This looks like a possible blowup spot, but if JAX can hold DET out of the end-zone this game will likely disappoint.
NEW*** Avoiding biases/Challenging preconceived notions:
Tourney Winning Plays: Amon Ra St. Brown has a lot of DK points before TDs and is cheaper than most WRs of his caliber. He needs TDs to really make a difference, so consider Trevor Lawrence as another high upside player that could go 5x.
Game Environment: This is definitely a game that could end up scoring 60 points between the teams. That would be enough to win a tourney with the right plays I think. Once one team grabs a lead, the other team will start picking up the pace. These teams are used to picking up the pace as the game wears on. I imagine they can both easily get dragged along that route again here.
My Plays: Ra St. Brown is always a fun guy to play when he’s healthy. Trevor Lawrence to Kirk or Zay is a good play opposite St. Brown.
Leverage Plays:
At OWS, we look for the GAME ENVIRONMENTS that produce tourney winning scores. In addition, we need to know who the TOP PLAYS are (despite ownership) and not be afraid to play them! We look for ANGLES that allow us to fit the best plays into a lineup that is different. Finally, we need to be considering good LEVERAGE spots that we can take advantage of. That’s what I look for in this space.
How I structure my Notes:
Initial Thoughts: Before I read the NFL Edge I find time to do my own research and synthesize some of my thoughts about the game.
Tourney Winning Plays: Players who get enough volume and quality volume to post a tourney winning score on their own regardless of the game environment. Most DFS players will be building around these pieces.
Likely Game Environment and stacks within that environment to capitalize on in order to squeeze as many FPs as possible out of good games.
My Plays are the people I will be looking to roster from this game.
Leverage plays are written later in the week, like on Saturday, after I have gotten a full feel for the slate and know where I can gain leverage off of likely high ownership or -EV chalky spots.
Packers at Bears, Week 13
Trying to Win another Tourney! (213.64 POINTS!!!) – Scroll down for a better description of how and why I structure my game notes in this manner.
Initial Thoughts: Do the Bears have Fields back and healthy? It is possible they try to limit him a little bit, but this is also a great chance to finally beat the Packers. Hurts and Sanders just combined for 300 yards against GB. I don’t think they would start Fields if he couldn’t run. That is his strength. So if Fields plays, the Bears can find ways to score and GB should also find ways to score against this bottom tier D. Both teams require the run game to succeed, so a true shootout is less likely, but both teams can be efficient at scoring TDs. Great spot if ownership is low.
NEW*** Avoiding biases/Challenging preconceived notions:
Tourney Winning Plays:
Game Environment:
My Plays:
Leverage Plays:
At OWS, we look for the GAME ENVIRONMENTS that produce tourney winning scores. In addition, we need to know who the TOP PLAYS are (despite ownership) and not be afraid to play them! We look for ANGLES that allow us to fit the best plays into a lineup that is different. Finally, we need to be considering good LEVERAGE spots that we can take advantage of. That’s what I look for in this space.
How I structure my Notes:
Initial Thoughts: Before I read the NFL Edge I find time to do my own research and synthesize some of my thoughts about the game.
Tourney Winning Plays: Players who get enough volume and quality volume to post a tourney winning score on their own regardless of the game environment. Most DFS players will be building around these pieces.
Likely Game Environment and stacks within that environment to capitalize on in order to squeeze as many FPs as possible out of good games.
My Plays are the people I will be looking to roster from this game.
Leverage plays are written later in the week, like on Saturday, after I have gotten a full feel for the slate and know where I can gain leverage off of likely high ownership or -EV chalky spots.
Broncos at Ravens, Week 13
Trying to Win another Tourney! (213.64 POINTS!!!) – Scroll down for a better description of how and why I structure my game notes in this manner.
Initial Thoughts: This looks like an easy game plan for BAL. Commit to the run game and play action to your best targets, but you can win with your run game. DEN has a bad offense but they have succeeded in big-ish plays (8th yards per pass) and BAL has been susceptible to that. I don’t expect DEN to have consistent success, but its not out of the realm of possibility that they put up some points. I imagine DEN will be reactive in their offensive approach. The big plays could come as a result of BALs run game succeeding, which I think it will. I mean, why tempt fate by passing into the heart of the DEN D?
NEW*** Avoiding biases/Challenging preconceived notions:
Tourney Winning Plays: none
Game Environment: This one will be slow paced and run heavy by BAL at least. DEN is not really worth betting on. They could luck into a few big plays (and maybe you want to take a shot on a low owned and low priced guy) but there are far better bets elsewhere.
My Plays: none
Leverage Plays:
At OWS, we look for the GAME ENVIRONMENTS that produce tourney winning scores. In addition, we need to know who the TOP PLAYS are (despite ownership) and not be afraid to play them! We look for ANGLES that allow us to fit the best plays into a lineup that is different. Finally, we need to be considering good LEVERAGE spots that we can take advantage of. That’s what I look for in this space.
How I structure my Notes:
Initial Thoughts: Before I read the NFL Edge I find time to do my own research and synthesize some of my thoughts about the game.
Tourney Winning Plays: Players who get enough volume and quality volume to post a tourney winning score on their own regardless of the game environment. Most DFS players will be building around these pieces.
Likely Game Environment and stacks within that environment to capitalize on in order to squeeze as many FPs as possible out of good games.
My Plays are the people I will be looking to roster from this game.
Leverage plays are written later in the week, like on Saturday, after I have gotten a full feel for the slate and know where I can gain leverage off of likely high ownership or -EV chalky spots.
Steelers at Falcons, Week 13
Trying to Win another Tourney! (213.64 POINTS!!!) – Scroll down for a better description of how and why I structure my game notes in this manner.
Initial Thoughts: It seems like ATL is going to be running an offense that goes into the teeth of the PIT D. Mariota is going to be forced to beat this PIT team and what PIT seems to lack on defense (statistically at least) is an ability to stop the big pass play. Who on ATL is going to provide that? Meanwhile, PITs offense is decent, but definitely not good. They may have an easier time with ATL. Looking back at their schedule, the only below average defense they have faced were the Browns and I guess the Bengals. PIT could really find the treading easier here and have a good game. If PIT jumps out to a lead which is possible, ATL will have to pass, but ATL is also the slowest team to react and change their game plan. This game probably doesn’t compete with others, but Pickett, Pickens and PIT RB could have some good games.
NEW*** Avoiding biases/Challenging preconceived notions:
Tourney Winning Plays: none
Game Environment: The game environment that we would be looking to exploit here is one in which PIT is finding it easier than normal to score. This would likely come through big plays to Kenny Pickens rather than sustained drives (although there certainly will be some of that). Pickett will have to be over 40 attempts to be able to find success because his normal attempts have a low aDot. Why would PIT call so many pass plays? If they are losing by a lot, they would obviously do this and its not out of the question for ATL special teams and defense to score a couple TDs, but that is a low likelihood outcome. PIT passed a bunch in a low scoring game vs. MIA. Maybe we see that here. They also had 40+ passes vs. CIN in a faster paced game. While I like PITs ability to have success here on offense, I’m not sure its a compelling case for them to have an increased # pass plays vs. a team like ATL.
My Plays: I am likely not stacking this game, but would not be surprised if a PIT WR/TE posts a great score at their price. This is the easiest matchup PIT will have had all year (by a long shot) so it wouldn’t surprise me if they scored more TDs and had a few bigger plays than normal. DJ (5.2)or Pickens (5.1) or Freiermuth (4.3) can all independently go for 7-9 receptions for 100 yards and a TD (26 points) which could be a valuable salary saver on this slate.
Leverage Plays:
At OWS, we look for the GAME ENVIRONMENTS that produce tourney winning scores. In addition, we need to know who the TOP PLAYS are (despite ownership) and not be afraid to play them! We look for ANGLES that allow us to fit the best plays into a lineup that is different. Finally, we need to be considering good LEVERAGE spots that we can take advantage of. That’s what I look for in this space.
How I structure my Notes:
Initial Thoughts: Before I read the NFL Edge I find time to do my own research and synthesize some of my thoughts about the game.
Tourney Winning Plays: Players who get enough volume and quality volume to post a tourney winning score on their own regardless of the game environment. Most DFS players will be building around these pieces.
Likely Game Environment and stacks within that environment to capitalize on in order to squeeze as many FPs as possible out of good games.
My Plays are the people I will be looking to roster from this game.
Leverage plays are written later in the week, like on Saturday, after I have gotten a full feel for the slate and know where I can gain leverage off of likely high ownership or -EV chalky spots.