game Overview ::
By hilow >>
- Bengals WR Ja’Marr Chase (shoulder) did not practice Wednesday and is reported to be out on Saturday.
- Steelers QB Kenny Pickett (ankle) was limited Tuesday and Wednesday as he works his way back from two missed games.
- Both teams are fighting for their playoff lives. with the Bengals currently occupying the No. 6 seed and the Steelers one game out of the playoff picture in the AFC, needing wins and some help to get in.
- The Bengals rank 31st in yards allowed per carry and yards allowed before contact, which should allow the Steelers further opportunity to control the game via their defense and ground attack.
How cincinnati Will Try To Win ::
Bengals head coach Zac Taylor has largely kept his word that the offense wouldn’t fundamentally change in the absence of Joe Burrow, rattling off three consecutive wins behind two games with elevated pass rate over expectation (PROE) numbers and one blowout win over the Colts. The big difference in Week 16 is the expected absence of Chase, who has reportedly been ruled out against the Steelers. It wouldn’t do Chase much justice to simply say he is important to how this offense runs, typically responsible for most of the schemed usage in addition to what he can do with the ball in his hands. For comparison’s sake, Chase ranks second in the league in yards after the catch this season (512, 4.0 per target) while Tyler Boyd (2.6 YAC/target) and Tee Higgins (2.5 YAC/target) typically operate in route trees that don’t naturally aid the accrual of yards after the catch. All of that to say, it could be more difficult for Taylor to methodically move the chains without his queen chess piece on the field, particularly considering he’ll be designing an offense for a backup quarterback.
Saturday 2 Game Ownership Projections!
Ownership updates automatically
Joe Mixon remains the unquestioned lead back in the Cincinnati backfield, playing 63 percent or more of the offensive snaps in every game this season. That said, the recent emergence of rookie Chase Brown has cut into his share of the workload. Since Brown returned from injury three games ago, Mixon has handled 26 of 35 running back opportunities (74.3 percent), 25 of 37 opportunities (67.6 percent), and 13 of 25 opportunities (52.0 percent). His season-long opportunity share sits at a robust 81.5 percent, third highest in the league. In other words, Mixon is ceding more work to auxiliary backs now that Brown is healthy and contributing. Look, he still saw 25 and 26 opportunities before a nightmare matchup with the Vikings in Week 15, but the fact that he is responsible for a lower share of the backfield work is non-negligible. The matchup on the ground should be considered neutral against a Pittsburgh defense allowing 4.3 yards per carry (18th) behind 1.23 yards allowed before contact (11th).
The primary point of uncertainty from this game is how we Zac Taylor to design the pass offense without Chase on the field. Considering the talents of Higgins, Boyd, Mixon, Trenton Irwin, Andre Iosivas and the tight end conglomerate paired with the matchup with the man-heavy Steelers defense, I expect Higgins (team-leading 27.0 percent target share against man coverage this season) and the running backs (we’ve seen both Mixon and Brown be involved through the air in recent weeks) to be the primary points of emphasis for the Cincinnati pass game here. Boyd actually sees a slight uptick in target share against man coverage when compared to zone (18.4 percent versus 16.6 percent), but we shouldn’t expect his role to grow substantially in the offense with Chase out. It’s much more likely that we see the offense shift to a more heavy emphasis on Higgins in the intermediate areas of the field and the running backs through schemed usage to get the ball into their hands in space. When the Steelers are in zone, they’re running heavy rates of Cover-2 alignments with hints of Tampa-2 techniques, which is basically a fun way of saying “they ask a lot of their linebackers when in zone.” From a conceptual standpoint, Taylor’s best chance of moving the ball in that setup is via play action, which will get the linebackers closer to the line of scrimmage in the box, after which the Bengals can get their backs out in space either on the perimeter or via chip-and-go short area routes. That’s how I would attack this spot, but it remains to be seen how Taylor will plan for another must-win game with one hand tied behind his back (through injuries to Burrow and Chase).
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