Game Overview ::
By MIKE JOHNSON >>
- This is a matchup of the two highest-scoring offenses in the NFL.
- Dallas operates at a quick pace and throws the ball at an extremely high rate, while Miami operates at a slower pace and runs the ball more often and efficiently.
- The ability of the Dallas defense to generate pressure will be critical to this game, as Tua Tagovailoa is extremely pressure sensitive in his efficiency.
- The Dolphins are likely to use their elite rushing scheme to attack a Cowboys defense that was torched on the ground by Buffalo last week.
- Miami’s defense has performed very well recently but has struggled against the few high-level offenses it has faced this season.
How dallas Will Try To Win ::
The Cowboys were brought back down to earth a bit in their Week 15 loss to the Bills, as Buffalo was able to dominate them in the trenches on both sides of the ball. The Bills were able to sack Dak Prescott three times and hit him seven others as Dak was held to his worst game of the season, one that marked only the second time since the team’s Week 7 bye that he failed to reach 200 passing yards. Dallas ran the ball efficiently while averaging 4.5 yards per carry, but the Cowboys were unable to stick with the run as they fell behind early and were pummeled by Buffalo’s rushing attack. This marked the fourth loss of the season for the Cowboys and the third which came at the hands of a fellow “powerhouse” among the current NFL landscape.
This week, Dallas will be tested once again as they travel to face a Dolphins team that has been dynamic and explosive offensively all year and is the only team in the NFL averaging more points than the Cowboys. Looking at the track record of the Dolphins defense, however, you can see that their recent strong performance can be largely attributed to their poor schedule of opponents. Since their Week 10 bye, they have faced the Jets (twice), Commanders, Titans, and Raiders. Those teams all rank 22nd or worse in offensive DVOA for the season, while the Cowboys rank ninth overall and have been one of the top units in the league since moving to a more pass-centric game plan after their bye week. Miami has faced three offenses this season that rank in the top 10 in offensive DVOA – Buffalo, Kansas City, and Philadelphia. Those teams combined to average 33 points per game against them, and two of the three (BUF and PHI) had wildly efficient passing games. Miami was also exposed on Monday night in Week 14 by rookie quarterback Will Levis and the Titans, as the Dolphins coughed up a two-score fourth quarter lead.
Looking at how Dallas will approach this game, we should expect them to have an aggressive mindset from the start and feel the need to be efficient and explosive when they have the ball. Dallas ranks sixth in the NFL in Pass Rate Over Expectation (PROE) for the season and should have the tools to move the ball against this Miami defense that has struggled against formidable opponents. Miami has the league’s fourth-lowest blitz rate, which should give Prescott a lot more time to throw than he had in Buffalo. A key part of that will be the health of the Cowboys’ offensive line, and we will want to monitor the status of tackle Tyron Smith and guard Zack Martin, who both missed practice on Wednesday. In any scenario, the Cowboys should be very pass heavy and are also likely to try to involve Tony Pollard more in space, as they did two weeks ago against the Eagles. If their offensive line is less than full strength, we may see their passing game concepts focus more on the short areas of the field to get the ball out of Prescott’s hands quickly. However, the Bills, Raiders, Titans and Eagles have all had success downfield against Miami, and Dallas will certainly take some shots as well. An underrated aspect of Dallas’ approach is likely to be how badly their run defense was exposed last week and how critical that makes it for them to score points early so Miami can’t just pound them on the ground like Buffalo did. Early possessions for Dallas will be critical, and the Cowboys will need to not just move the ball, but also turn those drives into touchdowns to control the game.
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