Game Overview ::
By hilow >>
- Commanders RB Brian Robinson (hamstring) did not practice Wednesday or Thursday, which is concerning coming off of a bye and missed contest.
- Jets QB Zach Wilson (concussion) has yet to practice this week (as of Thursday) while QB Aaron Rodgers is unlikely to play for the remainder of the 2023 season.
- It appears as if QB Trevor Siemian is in line to start under center for the Jets.
- Jets WR Jason Brownlee returned to a full practice Thursday after two missed games.
How Washington Will Try To Win ::
The biggest change to this Commanders team is on the defensive side of the ball, where head coach Ron Rivera is now calling defensive plays for his franchise. Washington has allowed a league-worst 30.2 points per game this season. Guess how many they’ve allowed since the firing of Del Rio? 73, or 36.5 per game. As we talked about with this team the week after Del Rio was let go, it’s very difficult to immediately turn things around with only a week, or two, or five, of practice during the middle of an NFL season. What we’ve seen from this defense is a stark shift from above average rates of man coverage to extreme rates of Cover-2, a defensive alignments designed to instill a sense of confusion for opposing quarterbacks due to its relatively static appearance before the snap. The problem is these players have had to adjust to an entirely new scheme on the fly in the middle of a grueling NFL season, which, understandably, has not gone to plan. The Commanders have also now allowed a top five running back score in five consecutive weeks, primarily induced via extreme production allowed through the air. On the other side of the ball, nothing has appreciably changed throughout the season, with an offense that ranks third in PROE, first in pass attempts (38.9), and first in pass play rate (66.37 percent). Finally, the things that offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy was doing during the middle of the season, like designing an offense to get the ball out of quarterback Sam Howell’s hands quickly to avoid pressure and sacks, have largely dried up in recent weeks.
Lead back Brian Robinson missed Week 15 with his hamstring injury and currently projects to miss Week 16. In that Week 15 contest, Jonathan Williams came out of the woodwork to split early down work with Chris Rodriguez, with the team keeping Antonio Gibson’s role relatively static. That, outside of the sneak appearance from Williams, was discussed as a viable outcome leading into the Week 15 slate (when, as you remember, Antonio Gibson was chalk). There’s not much that we should expect to have changed between now and the team’s Week 15 preparation, leaving a likeliest scenario that mirrors what we saw last week. The Jets have faced the second highest opponent rush rate this season due to routinely negative game environments but haven’t performed terribly from a per-touch standpoint, holding opponents to 4.0 yards per carry (10th) behind a middling 1.25 yards allowed before contact (14th). And since we don’t all of a sudden expect the Commanders insane pass rates to dip, it doesn’t leave a ton of individual upside for any member of this backfield.
As we’ve talked about all season, an extremely unconcentrated pass offense and a demonstated inability for Bieniemy to tailor his offense to the weaknesses of an opponent has left very few instances of GPP viability from any of the primary pass-catchers in this offense. Terry McLaurin had his best statistical game of his career in Week 15 (6-141-1) while Curtis Samuel’s two touchdown game propelled him to 21.1 DK points. The caveat there is that the Commanders managed to score three touchdowns in the final 22 minutes of play against a defense that went into a prevent-shell, after being blanked on the scoreboard for the first 38 minutes. It was also backup quarterback Jacoby Brissett that led two of those touchdown drives after Sam Howell was benched entering the third quarter. This appears to still be Howell’s team, with Bieniemy explaining the benching as a learning opportunity early this week. Either way, Curtis Samuel now has two GPP-viable scores through 14 games, Terry McLaurin has one, Jahan Dotson has one, and tight end Logan Thomas has one. In other words, out of a potential for 56 combines games between the four primary pass-catchers, they have returned five GPP-viable scores. That’s an 8.9 percent hit rate, far lower than the baseline expectation of 25 percent based on the DK pricing algorithm’s output. And now they take on a Jets defense holding opponents to 5.1 net yards per pass attempt, with games already played against the Dolphins (twice), Texans, Chargers (before they were broken), Bills (twice), and Cowboys, amongst others.
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