Browns (

15.75) at
Jaguars (

24.25)

BY PAPY >>

Game Overview

• The Browns have Deshaun Watson at QB, behind one of the league’s worst offensive lines, throwing to a group of rookies.
• Quinson Judkins should get 20 touches, but everything else is against him.
• K.C. Conception is the best bring back option on the Browns, but he’s unlikely to post a separator game
• The Jaguars will do enough to win, but they’ve shown a willingness to slow down when holding a significant lead in the second half
• The overall game environment isn’t appealing, but the in-game factors favor Parker Washington
• Bhayshul Tuten and Chris Rodriguez eat into each other’s value. Tuten always has upside because of his explosive play ability, but his big games will be hard to predict
• The Jaguars defense is going to be chalk, but it’s hard to fade a defense that checks all the boxes on a week with soft pricing

How Cleveland Will Try to Win

The Browns are back! Not back to being good. Just back. After a five-year run with Kevin Stefanski calling the shots, the Browns decided to turn over the coaching staff and are now led by Todd Monken, with Travis Switzer as the OC. This is a big promotion for Switzer (no relation to Barry). Switzer has spent his entire career as an assistant with the Ravens, most recently serving as their run game coordinator. He’s only 33 years old. There’s nothing to go on with Switzer, but new head coach Todd Monken must have thought highly of him during their time together in Baltimore. Monken’s coaching career is well documented, having most recently served as the Ravens’ OC, but this is his first time getting a shot as a head coach in the NFL. The Ravens played slow (30th in seconds per play) last season, and it would make sense to play slow with an obvious weakness at QB. Deshaun Watson was a disaster this preseason, but Monken named him the starter amid speculation he could get benched by Week 3. It doesn’t help the Browns’ O-line is expected to stink (31st ranked by PFF). The most likely game plan is going to be running the ball and winning on defense. That strategy was Cleveland’s best chance last year, but with Myles Garrett in LA, it’s unlikely that the defense will be able to carry the team.

The Jaguars’ defense was underrated last year, finishing strong (6th in total DVOA). They were equally tough against the pass (7th in DVOA), and on the ground (5th in DVOA). They only added DT Albert Regis in the draft and are largely running it back on defense. There is also a chance that Travis Hunter will be healthier, and more focused on playing CB. The Jaguars must hope they at least got a lock down CB if Hunter is going to play limited snaps at WR. There isn’t an obvious weakness for Monken to attack, and he’s going to have to find a way to win with Deshaun Watson at the helm. It makes sense based on Monken’s coaching career that he is going to try and win on the ground, while hiding Watson, but there is also some chance he treats this year like an experiment and plays aggressive. If Monken thinks he has job security beyond this season, he could let Switzer be creative with his young cast of weapons. Expect the Browns to try and win a slow paced, grind it out affair, but keep in mind there is some chance they decide to attack and see what happens.