Bucs (

23.5) at
Bengals (

27)

BY HILOW >>

GAME OVERVIEW::

• WR Emeka Egbuka suffered a turf toe injury in August and has yet to return to full practice, instead running and rehabbing to the side this past week. His status is in doubt for Week 1.
• WR Jalen McMillan (knee) has also yet to return to full practices after missing the entirety of preseason.
• Zac Robinson takes over as offensive coordinator for the Buccaneers following the firing of Josh Grizzard.
• The Buccaneers have hinted at a near-even split at running back between Bucky Irving and Kenneth Gainwell… but, what if it’s not?
• Reports from Bengals camp this offseason seemed to indicate Zac Taylor will be looking to get Joe Burrow under center at an increased rate in 2026. That would be a massive boost to the team’s ability to effectively utilize play action passing, which has been almost nonexistent for the Bengals during Taylor’s tenure.

HOW TAMPA BAY WILL TRY TO WIN::

Todd Bowles is a defensive-minded head coach that isn’t often going to push a game environment on his own. He is also a coach that isn’t afraid to trade blows if things fall that way during the course of a game and he has typically left offensive tendencies and identity completely to his offensive coordinator. Liam Coen ran an efficient, explosive, and varied offense that finished the 2024 season ranked fourth in scoring at 29.0 points per game. He was sandwiched by not-so-great coordinators in Dave Canales (21.2 points per game – yea, go read the Panthers write-up for more thoughts on him) and Josh Grizzard (22.4 points per game – fired, while the other two before him picked up head coaching gigs). Now comes Zac Robinson, another fake-sharp offensive mind that got by in Atlanta through elite skill position talent while working with Bijan Robinson, Drake London, and Kyle Pitts. From an analytical perspective, Zac Robinson is a lot like Zac Taylor in that his situational tendencies, play-action usage, route structure, and under-center rates are entirely lacking, which is a bummer considering he hails from the Sean McVay coaching tree after coaching under him with the Rams for five seasons. Two things that Robinson does extremely well are the ground game, which utilizes unique concepts, drags, pulls, and an emphasis on outside-zone, off-tackle running to great effect in today’s game and pre-snap motion, although he becomes more predictable by not also layering in play action.

Bijan Robinson saw 35 more carries behind outside zone concepts than the next closest running back a season ago (Christian McCaffrey), and 50 more than the third back in that split (Derrick Henry). Bucky Irving saw only 35 attempts behind outside zone concepts in 2025 but averaged a solid 4.97 yards per carry in that split. That was leagues better than the 3.11 yards per carry on 38 attempts of Kenneth Gainwell and 2.32 yards per carry on 25 attempts for Sean Tucker behind outside zone concepts. We don’t know how the team will choose to allocate roles to start the season given the change at offensive coordinator and addition of Gainwell, but I expect Irving to eventually see a floor of about 65 percent of the backfield rushing workload deeper into the season. The addition of Dexter Lawrence for the Bengals gives the team a legitimate nose tackle for the first time in a long while, but his effectiveness is less likely to overly influence the run game considering the extent Robinson is likely to go to open up running lanes away from the middle of the formation. It’s a solid spot on paper for “Buccaneers run game” as a whole, and the ceiling is high for Irving should he see a larger workload than we’ve been led to believe throughout the offseason.

Bowles continues to “be optimistic” about Emeka Egbuka and Jalen McMillan, but that really means nothing as it pertains to their respective chances of suiting up against the Bengals. This looks like a situation where we might not get confirmation until inactives are released 90-minutes prior to kickoff, which isn’t a death knell considering they play during the early portion of the slate. We’ll need to track their level of participation Wednesday through Friday carefully. I wouldn’t be shocked if neither is available. Even without the injury to McMillan, I thought rookie Ted Hurst would immediately push to enter the starting lineup considering his athletic profile, abilities, testing, and college production. He is the receiver on the roster most suited to play the X, with McMillan more a prototypical Z – the position that Egbuka has reportedly been focused on this offseason after moving all over the place out of necessity during his rookie campaign. As touched on above, Robinson’s pass game scheme is fairly benign and straightforward, often focused on creating one-on-one situations for his players to go and win against rather than creating the space for them, all while failing to reap the benefits of play action, timing, and fluidity. His answer is typically to use motion to help his quarterback diagnose coverage and get him out on a bootleg to clean up throwing lanes. That has typically led to elevated first-read target rates. That screams Chris Godwin in this spot, particularly against an Al Golden defense that utilized elevated rates of Cover-2 and Cover-3 a season ago. That could also benefit Cade Otton, who is one of those “middle clogger” tight ends with limited after-the-catch upside, but has performed well when thrust into additional volume due to injury in the past.