Easily one of the ugliest Def vs Archetype matchups on the slate. The Knicks present as a big issue for Post Bigs. -4.5% in FG%, -13.9% in FGA, -14% in R, and -29.1% in A. Brutal across the board.

The Knicks rank 2nd on the season in D vs PRA allowed to Sengun’s position. Over his L11 games vs T10 D’s in PRA’s allowed to his position, Sengun is 1 – 10 vs tonight’s 33.5 line. Ouch. His avg across those games is just 25.7 PRA/g. He has played 30+ mins in all of those games except for two (24 and 28 mins) so the drag on the avg is not due to any outliers where he played maybe 5 – 10 mins and left due to injury, etc.

The NYK D is 3rd over their L15 games in Pts in the Paint allowed. In his L13 games vs D’s that are T10 in this metric, Sengun is 4 – 9 (30.8%) vs the 33.5 line and avg’s just 30.0 PRA/g across this dataset. One of the wins was by the hook and another was by one basket. Which means he 3 – 10 if you can find the 34.5 line on a smaller outlet.

Furthermore, C’s have hit their PRA prop in just 4 of their L15 tries (27% Hit Rate) vs NYK.

The Warriors are thin without Steph and Jimmy but this hasn’t necessarily meant a larger role or increased minutes for Moody. He’s averaging 24.6 min/game for the season which only rises to 24.9 without Curry. He sees a slight bump in usage but still has been less than 20% in games without Curry and Butler. He’s failed to clear this line in each of the last 10 games with Curry out. In games with both Curry and Butler out, he’s failed to clear this in 5/6 games. There is nothing particularly special about the matchup with PHI. Moody takes 40% of his shots above the break where the Sixers are the 7th best defense defending that area.

This line is priced near Mobley’s ceiling given the current roster setup. With Darius Garland out and Jarrett Allen active, Mobley’s role leans more defensive and interior-focused rather than high-usage offense or playmaking.

The under has been live in this configuration. Mobley has gone under 32.5 PRA in about half of his games with Garland out and Allen playing, with most results clustering in the mid-to-high 20s rather than pushing into the mid-30s. Even without Garland, Mobley’s usage and assist rates haven’t meaningfully spiked.

Philadelphia ranks 11th in defensive rating and around middle of the league in paint points allowed and rebounds allowed. This is also a big pace down spot for Cleveland who is ranked 5th in pace compared to Philly’s 19th.

With Allen active and no clear usage boost, 32.5 PRA requires a near-ceiling efficiency night, making the under the preferred side.

Green could be making his first appearance back, and his minutes are expected to be heavily monitored, making it unlikely he reaches normal volume or usage.

The matchup is quietly restrictive across Green’s scoring profile. Philly ranks #6 in the league at defending catch-and-shoot looks and top-15 vs pull-ups, taking away the secondary scoring looks he relies on when the ball swings. There’s also no pace help (Philly pace ranked #19), which limits total possession volume and caps PRA accumulation. Rebound and assist environments are neutral-to-negative for guards in this spot.

With a minutes cap and multiple defensive checks in place, Green needs an outlier efficiency night to clear, making the under the higher-probability outcome.