Bills (

22.75) at
Texans (

21.75)

BY HILOW >>

GAME OVERVIEW::

• There are a lot of moving pieces here, but there is a legitimate chance that Super Josh is summoned more frequently than in previous seasons. For those not familiar with Super Josh, Josh Allen is the quarterback that most frequently has returned a tournament-winning score without bringing another skill position player with him. He is also capable of both taking over a game and putting a slate out of reach, achieving a score you quite simply could not win without.
• RB Ty Johnson missed all of preseason and most of camp with a knee/lower-body injury.
• The Bills don't appear to be moving away from the seven-to-eight-person revolving door amongst their pass catchers any time soon. So, that's fun.
• WR Nico Collins should absolutely dominate looks through the air for the Texans. Jayden Higgins saw his season ripped from him due to a torn ACL, Tank Dell will start the season on IR, and the rest of the roster is devoid of target-earners.

HOW BUFFALO WILL TRY TO WIN::

I'm going to be honest with you all, I have had a hell of a time hammering down this Bills team this offseason. On one hand, former head coach Sean McDermott lasted as long as he did in Buffalo due to his ability to scheme through relative personnel shortcomings on the defensive side of the ball. His replacement, Jim Leonhard, had his come-up under Vance Joseph and runs an aggressive-style hybrid defense designed to get after the quarterback and disrupt drives. That can lead to two scenarios through the course of a game: (1) the pressure is able to get home and the Bills are able to continue playing a more keep-away, ball control style of offense, or (2) teams are able to maneuver around the pressure and pick up chunk gains and explosives, which could lead to Super Josh making an appearance. I suppose that exploration leads to a more opponent-dependent setup for the Bills this year, more so than we had in recent history. In other words, we spent much of the past five seasons talking about the factors that could lead to Super Josh's appearance – those factors take on a slightly different shape in 2026, one that could result in even more Super Josh than we've grown accustomed to in recent history. Finally, we saw multiple reports from camp that the Bills were focused on passing more heading into the new season.

Ty Johnson's expected absence in Week 1 might not be as big a deal for James Cook as initially thought. Johnson missed both playoff contests last season, during which it was Ray Davis that soaked up the vacated time on the field while Cook played a "normal for him" 60 and 64 percent snap rate. That said, the prevailing theory surrounding the Bills is that they will be working to get Cook more involved in the pass game after averaging just 2.3 targets per game a season ago. There becomes an interesting case to be made for finally including Cook as a potential tournament pairing with Allen after the two returned a tourney-winning score in the same week only once in the previous four seasons. The pure rushing matchup is about as difficult as they come against DeMeco Ryans' Texans defense, who are fresh off a season in which they held opponents to 92.7 yards and 3.9 yards per carry on the ground.

DJ Moore was the subject of strong debate amongst the Best Ball crowd this offseason. He was an extremely enigmatic and polarizing player, with both sides of the discussion adamant the other side was wrong (as is so often the case, people tend to want to prove others wrong). And then the preseason happened and the Bills appeared content to continue a four-to-five receiver and two-to-three tight end rotation, which is something we are all intimately familiar with. Bringing that back to the offseason discourse regarding Moore likely leaves the discussion somewhere in the middle in that Moore appears unlikely to see more than 70-75 percent of the weekly snaps but he stands as the clear top option through the air. In other words, I don't expect a massive snap share or route participation from Moore but he is highly likely to lead the team in underlying metrics like TPRR. As such, there is no reason to treat him any different than we have any other pass catcher from the Bills since the departure of Stefon Diggs. From a fantasy standpoint, that effectively leaves us in the same position as we have been with Buffalo pass catchers, and we can cite the historic trends to make our weekly decisions. Allen is the quarterback that most frequently "does it by himself," with his blowup spots typically coming through placing the team on his back. How the targets shake out behind Moore this season is anyone's guess, with tight end Dalton Kincaid the most likely to finish second on the team in receiving despite notching only nine career games with a snap rate north of 55 percent during his three-year professional career. Keon Coleman, Khalil Shakir, James Palmer, rookie Skyler Bell, and tight end Dawson Knox will be involved in some capacity but there is currently no telling how they will be utilized.