Game Overview ::
By mike johnson >>
- Both of these teams enter Week 16 tied for the lead in their respective divisions.
- This is a matchup of two “pass funnel” defenses who both rank in the top 6 in the NFL in opponent pass rate.
- Trevor Lawrence is battling a concussion and seems unlikely to play after missing the first two days of practice this week.
- Tampa Bay has a relatively concentrated offense and is likely to struggle moving the ball on the ground.
- The Tampa offense should be able to put up points this week, while the Jaguars approach and efficiency will be the driving factor in whether or not we can see a high-scoring affair.
How Jacksonville Will Try To Win ::
Things are falling apart quickly for the Jaguars, who have lost three straight games and enter Week 16 in a three-way tie for the division lead while several key offensive players battle injuries. They have already lost Christian Kirk to a groin injury and now may be without WR Zay Jones and QB Trevor Lawrence as they head down the coast to face the Bucs. Lawrence reportedly suffered a concussion on the final drive of the Jaguars loss to the Ravens on Sunday night and has not practiced yet this week, as of Thursday. Given the way the NFL has handled head injuries since the Tua Tagovailoa drama from last season and the fact that Lawrence is the future of this Jacksonville franchise, it would seem likely that the Jaguars will be cautious with Lawrence and his to-date lack of activity indicates they are likely to be without him.
Assuming Lawrence is out, the Jaguars will turn to veteran backup CJ Beathard. We have seen Beathard in meaningful action only once this year, three weeks ago late in the game against the Bengals after Lawrence hurt his ankle. Jacksonville ranks fourth in pass rate over expectation (PROE) and is facing a Tampa Bay defense whose opponents pass at the fifth highest rate in the league. The interesting thing about the Bucs defense, however, is that they are starting to get healthy and have several key players potentially returning this week. Also of note is the fact that Tampa Bay is ranked 30th in PFF run defense grade. Another critical factor is that the Jaguars are set to be without Kirk and Jones, which alters the status of their receiving corps and could change their approach. If we assume Beathard is starting and is going to have limited weapons, we can also reasonably infer that Jacksonville may not attack Tampa Bay through the air as aggressively as many teams have in recent weeks. Considering the fact that Tampa’s run defense has been decent but not elite, we could see a situation unfold where the Jaguars attempt to control the game on the ground and rely on their defense to keep them in it until the fourth quarter. Given all the circumstances the Jaguars are facing and what they have on the line, it seems likely they will turn to Travis Etienne as a focal point of the offense while banking on their seventh ranked DVOA defense to make some plays and give them a chance.
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