XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT
Just when I thought island games couldn’t sink any lower, we have the Patriots taking on the Broncos on Sunday night. This game has an exciting 34 point total with the Broncos favored by 7, which means the Patriots are projected for a whopping 13 points. Fun. We have some injury stuff on the Pats side with Rhamondre Stevenson and JuJu Smith-Schuster ruled out, while I expect Hunter Henry will play after he was able to practice on Friday.
Denver
On the Broncos side, we have a massive home favorite running back with a strong workload and solid passing game involvement in Javonte Williams. When the Broncos are competitive or playing from ahead, Javonte has been playing 60%+ of the snaps consistently. Since Week 7, when he looked fully ramped up from last season’s injury, Javonte has averaged 16.75 carries and 3.5 targets per game, and in Broncos wins that number goes up to 18.2 carries and 3.8 targets. That’s a healthy workload. The problem is the matchup is awful: the Patriots rank 1st in run defense DVOA and are allowing the fewest yards per carry of any defense in the NFL at just 3.1. At running back, we generally care most about volume, and while matchup is certainly relevant, volume can trump it (especially in a one-game Showdown). I’m in on Javonte as a solid play even if he doesn’t quite check every box. Part of that is just because there aren’t a ton of other really solid plays on this slate, so by comparison, Javonte stands out. Behind him, we’ll see Samaje Perine in the main RB2/passing down back role with Jaleel McLaughlin mixing in occasionally. Perine doesn’t get many carries but can be counted on for a couple of targets per game. In a game script in which the Broncos are likely to play from ahead, I’m not super into him as he’s generally only seen 2-3 targets in most Broncos wins. He fits better in rosters predicated on a Patriots upset. McLaughlin is more of a straight backup to Javonte and doesn’t see much work, though he is consistently getting a couple of targets most games which gives him some semblance of floor on Draftkings. For both Perine and McLaughlin, their passing game roles mean that if they luck into a touchdown they stand a solid chance of being optimal (i.e. they don’t need an injury to Javonte to have a chance of paying off).
Showdown Ownership Projections!
Ownership updates automatically
In the passing game, there’s Courtland Sutton and everyone else. Sutton is the only guy playing a nearly full time role in this offense while Jerry Jeudy, who was drafted well ahead of Sutton before the season, is hanging around the 65-70% snap rate most weeks. Sutton is also dominating red zone usage with 17 targets, leading the team (Jeudy has 9), though when they get in close they tend to lean more towards their tight ends (more on that in a bit). Overall, Sutton leads Jeudy in target share 22.5% to 20.2%, in air yards share 34.4% to 30.8%, in red zone usage, and in just about everything you can think of. However, their prices have (finally) diverged after being pretty close in Showdowns for most of the season with Sutton jumping up all the way to $11k while Jeudy is $8k. Sutton’s been good this year but $11k in Showdown is true alpha wide receiver territory where we normally find guys like CeeDee Lamb, Stef Diggs, Justin Jefferson, and the like. Given the context of the slate without a lot of really strong plays on it, Sutton’s still fine, but I think that for the first time this season, I prefer Jeudy to him. Behind those two we have rookie Marvin Mims, who is playing more snaps as the season goes on but who hasn’t come down with one of the long catches he was getting earlier in the year (he did get a long DPI call last week, so he’s still getting at least a bit of deep work) and then Lil’Jordan Humphrey, who appears to have eclipsed Brandon Johnson for WR3 snaps (42%, 57%, 58% the last three weeks while Johnson has all but disappeared). I want to keep taking shots on Mims because I believe in his talent, especially as ownership on him continues to be fairly modest in Showdowns (anything under 10-15% feels good to me). Humphrey is “fine” in that he’s on the field a fair bit and while he doesn’t earn many targets, at his price, if he catches a touchdown as he did last week, he’s probably viable in tournaments.
At tight end, the position is led by Adam Trautman, who has played the second most snaps of any pass catcher on the team behind Sutton, though “pass catcher” is a somewhat flexible term when talking about Trautman as he’s averaging only slightly over two targets per game. Where Trautman shines is close to the end zone: Sutton leads the team in red zone targets, but inside the 10 yard line Trautman actually has the advantage, 8 to 7. Trautman has almost zero yardage upside and would be a TD-or-bust play. Chris Manhertz will play a few snaps but largely as a blocker – he hasn’t had a target since Week 10. Finally, Lucas Krull is interesting to me at just $800 – Krull’s snaps have climbed, up to a season-high of 45% last week, to go along with three targets. His route participation is a reasonable 41.7% and his aDOT is a very healthy 12.8 yards – he’s not on the field a ton, but when he is, he’s running routes and they aren’t little dinky short routes. He has solid per-target upside and it seems like he’s getting more involved in the offense. He’s still a thin punt play with no real floor to speak of, but if he’s coming in at low ownership than guys like Humphrey and Trautman, while at a cheaper price and with a higher aDOT, sign me up.
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