XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT

Week 16 kicks off with the Saints visiting the Rams. We have a healthy 46-point total with the Rams favored by 4. We also have a mostly clean injury report except for Chris Olave. As I write this on Tuesday evening, Olave returned to practice albeit in a limited fashion. While he doesn’t necessarily need a full practice to play, on a short week if he doesn’t get a full practice in, I think it’s more likely than not that he sits this one out again. I’m going to write this as if he’s out because if he’s in, it’s pretty clear who he is as a player and what his role is (Update: Olave is expected to play, more on this under the Saints write-up).

Los Angeles

On the Rams side, Kyren Williams has an absolutely massive role in this offense. He’s averaging 18.6 carries per game and 4.6 targets for a huge 23.2 running back opportunity count. Wow. The Saints have long had a reputation as a strong run defense, but they haven’t been this season as they’re 24th in run defense DVOA and 26th in yards per carry allowed. Kyren checks all the boxes: he’s a home favorite running back with a solid passing game and goal line role in a good matchup. He’s the strongest on-paper play on the slate, and he’ll be owned like it. Behind Kyren, Royce Freeman has a modest role – he got 13 carries in Week 12 in a blowout but has otherwise had one, three, and six carries in the games since Kyren returned from injury. He would need at the very least a lucky touchdown and more likely an injury to Kyren to be relevant. 

Showdown Ownership Projections!

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In the passing game, the Rams revolve around Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua. Both are awesome. Kupp has had the big games the last two weeks (last week driven by him being left COMPLETELY uncovered for one of the most ridiculous 60+ yard touchdowns you’ll ever see in the NFL), but their roles are very similar. Kupp has 31 targets in the last four weeks (since his most recent injury) for a combined 25/283/3 line while Puka has 31 targets for a combined 18/266/1 line. Kupp has a few more catches, while the yardage is almost identical. Kupp has found the end zone more often but that’s just variance. I view them as just about equal, so I’ll take the $1,400 discount with Puka. The matchup here is not a friendly one against a Saints defense that ranks 9th in pass defense DVOA, but it’s not terrible and these guys are good enough to hit in any matchup. And now . . . I have to write up DeMarcus Robinson because the DFS gods hate me. Robinson stepped into Tutu Atwell’s role when Atwell got injured, playing almost every snap. In Week 14, that resulted in an out-of-nowhere 10 targets, which led to him being (bad) chalk in Week 15 when he only saw three targets but caught a touchdown and thus paid off. I hate this dude with the fire of a thousand suns, but at $5,400, I have to admit he’s at least a reasonable option given that he’s seeing some modest volume and he’s clearly earned Stafford’s trust near the end zone, with touchdowns in each of his last three games. It’s gross and I’m going to go shower after finishing this paragraph, but he’s at least a playable option. 

At tight end, Tyler Higbee is a low floor, low upside option who has only broken double digit DK points three times this season (twice it required Kupp being out, the third time it took him scoring two touchdowns). At $5,800, I just don’t see the upside, and while I probably won’t X him out entirely, he is most definitely not a priority play for me in any way and I will be far underweight the field. Rookie TE Davis Allen filled in for Higbee when the latter missed Week 14, played well, and then played 35% of the snaps in Week 15 (his highest total of the season, by far, in a game in which Higbee also played). It’s unclear if that was because they didn’t intend Higbee to play a full workload in his first game back or if the Rams realized Higbee is terrible and wanted to work Allen in a bit more but I expect Allen is going to project for very little ownership, and if that is indeed the case, I’m willing to take a few shots here (if Allen projects under 5%, I’d probably aim for maybe 10% or so). 

New Orleans

game Overview ::

By hilow >>

• Bengals WR Ja’Marr Chase (shoulder) did not practice Wednesday and is reported to be out on Saturday.
• Steelers QB Kenny Pickett (ankle) was limited Tuesday and Wednesday as he works his way back from two missed games.
• Both teams are fighting for their playoff lives. with the Bengals currently occupying the No. 6 seed and the Steelers one game out of the playoff picture in the AFC, needing wins and some help to get in.
• The Bengals rank 31^st in yards allowed per carry and yards allowed before contact, which should allow the Steelers further opportunity to control the game via their defense and ground attack.

How cincinnati Will Try To Win ::

Bengals head coach Zac Taylor has largely kept his word that the offense wouldn’t fundamentally change in the absence of Joe Burrow, rattling off three consecutive wins behind two games with elevated pass rate over expectation (PROE) numbers and one blowout win over the Colts. The big difference in Week 16 is the expected absence of Chase, who has reportedly been ruled out against the Steelers. It wouldn’t do Chase much justice to simply say he is important to how this offense runs, typically responsible for most of the schemed usage in addition to what he can do with the ball in his hands. For comparison’s sake, Chase ranks second in the league in yards after the catch this season (512, 4.0 per target) while Tyler Boyd (2.6 YAC/target) and Tee Higgins (2.5 YAC/target) typically operate in route trees that don’t naturally aid the accrual of yards after the catch. All of that to say, it could be more difficult for Taylor to methodically move the chains without his queen chess piece on the field, particularly considering he’ll be designing an offense for a backup quarterback.

Saturday 2 Game Ownership Projections!

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Joe Mixon remains the unquestioned lead back in the Cincinnati backfield, playing 63 percent or more of the offensive snaps in every game this season. That said, the recent emergence of rookie Chase Brown has cut into his share of the workload. Since Brown returned from injury three games ago, Mixon has handled 26 of 35 running back opportunities (74.3 percent), 25 of 37 opportunities (67.6 percent), and 13 of 25 opportunities (52.0 percent). His season-long opportunity share sits at a robust 81.5 percent, third highest in the league. In other words, Mixon is ceding more work to auxiliary backs now that Brown is healthy and contributing. Look, he still saw 25 and 26 opportunities before a nightmare matchup with the Vikings in Week 15, but the fact that he is responsible for a lower share of the backfield work is non-negligible. The matchup on the ground should be considered neutral against a Pittsburgh defense allowing 4.3 yards per carry (18^th) behind 1.23 yards allowed before contact (11^th).

The primary point of uncertainty from this game is how we Zac Taylor to design the pass offense without Chase on the field. Considering the talents of Higgins, Boyd, Mixon, Trenton Irwin, Andre Iosivas and the tight end conglomerate paired with the matchup with the man-heavy Steelers defense, I expect Higgins (team-leading 27.0 percent target share against man coverage this season) and the running backs (we’ve seen both Mixon and Brown be involved through the air in recent weeks) to be the primary points of emphasis for the Cincinnati pass game here. Boyd actually sees a slight uptick in target share against man coverage when compared to zone (18.4 percent versus 16.6 percent), but we shouldn’t expect his role to grow substantially in the offense with Chase out. It’s much more likely that we see the offense shift to a more heavy emphasis on Higgins in the intermediate areas of the field and the running backs through schemed usage to get the ball into their hands in space. When the Steelers are in zone, they’re running heavy rates of Cover-2 alignments with hints of Tampa-2 techniques, which is basically a fun way of saying “they ask a lot of their linebackers when in zone.” From a conceptual standpoint, Taylor’s best chance of moving the ball in that setup is via play action, which will get the linebackers closer to the line of scrimmage in the box, after which the Bengals can get their backs out in space either on the perimeter or via chip-and-go short area routes. That’s how I would attack this spot, but it remains to be seen how Taylor will plan for another must-win game with one hand tied behind his back (through injuries to Burrow and Chase).

How pittsburgh Will Try To Win ::

Game Overview ::

By Hilow >>

• Bills RB James Cook (illness) popped on the team’s injury report Wednesday, missing practice with an illness. He’s likely to carry an injury designation into Saturday’s doubleheader but we’re unlikely to get more information regarding his health until game day. I would expect him to play.
• Chargers WR Keenan Allen (heel) was a ‘DNP’ on Tuesday and Wednesday. It appears likely that the veteran alpha wide receiver will miss his second consecutive game in Week 16. UPDATE: Allen has been ruled out for Week 16.
• The Chargers are a mess right now, leaving the Bills as likely to control the game environment from start to finish.

How BUFFALO Will Try To Win ::

The Bills departed their murderer’s row of opponents with a 2-1 record over the previous three weeks, losing in overtime to the Eagles (37-34) and beating the Chiefs (20-17) and Cowboys (31-10). That time period also roughly coincides with the departure of former offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey, who was fired prior to the team’s Week 11 game. Since the change at offensive play caller, the Bills have undergone quite the transformation on offense. They immediately went back to an offense based in 12-personnel upon the return of tight end Dawson Knox after starting the season with the highest rate of 12-personnel utilization and then transitioning to heavy rates of 11-personnel once Knox hit injured reserve. Beyond the fact that the Bills had their highest rush rate over expectation (RROE) game of the season in their Week 15 win over the Cowboys, the overall pass-rush splits have taken a smaller hit after the change in offensive coordinator than the field likely realizes, with the major differences being a higher concentration of touches in the backfield and offensive tendencies more susceptible to quick change based on game environment (these are positives). Considering the state of their opponent this week, a team limping to the end of the season down their franchise quarterback, their alpha wide receiver (Keenan will miss Week 16), their secondary pass catcher (Mike Williams), and numerous defensive players – and which also just fired their head coach – I expect the Bills to start the game with a rush-balanced approach before making alterations based on game flow. The likeliest game flow is very clearly the Bills controlling the contest throughout, which should allow them to lean heavier into their run game as the game progresses.

Saturday 2 Game Ownership Projections!

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As was mentioned above, one of the more drastic changes in this offense has been a higher touch-per-snap rate for Cook and an increase to his schemed usage through the air. After reaching 20 running back opportunities just once in the team’s first 10 games, Cook has seen opportunity counts of 21, 23, 15, and 28 over the previous four games without Dorsey. That said, his snap rates have actually taken a hit after Dorsey was removed, with snap rates of 46 percent, 43 percent, 44 percent, and 56 percent during that time. Which brings us back to his increased touch-per-snap rate, which is the major change with the backfield over the previous four games played. Latavius Murray and Ty Johnson are still going to be involved, but each plays a higher rate of empty snaps (snaps without a designed opportunity) in the new-look offense. The matchup on the ground is a good one against a Chargers defense allowing a middling 4.2 yards per carry but the most yards allowed before contact (1.90) in the league. The Bills should be able to find some level of success on the ground here.

Somewhat miraculously, Gabe Davis has two or fewer targets in three of four games after the change at offensive coordinator, all three of which resulted in goose eggs in the counting stats department. However, in the other game in that sample, the dude saw 12 targets, went over 100 yards, and scored – but that came against the pass-funnel Philadelphia defense. On a standard week, Davis and alpha wide receiver Stefon Diggs are the only near every-down pass catchers on the Bills offense, but we’ve seen this team alter its personnel groupings and snap rates to the extreme of late. Last week, when the Bills attempted just 15 passes, Diggs played a season-low 46 percent of the team’s offensive snaps as the team adopted a four-man rotation at wide receiver. That allowed Trent Sherfield to play his highest snap rate of the season at 57 percent. That is not the norm here, but it serves to highlight how much more fluid the Bills have been since the departure of Dorsey. Diggs continues to be the alpha in this pass offense, leading the team in targets in three of the previous four games since Dorsey left, receiving 11 looks to the 12 of Davis in the other.

How los angeles Will Try To Win ::

Game Overview ::

By hilow >>

• Colts WR Michael Pittman (concussion) returned to a full practice Thursday, meaning he is in the final stage of the league’s concussion protocol and only needs to pass the independent neurological test that will be compared to his baseline test from preseason.
• Colts RB Jonathan Taylor (thumb) returned to a full practice Thursday and appears set to return from three missed contests.
• Colts RB Zack Moss (forearm) appeared to aggravate the arm he broke in preseason and has yet to practice (as of Thursday).
• The Falcons appear to be getting relatively healthy after a string of injuries to impact players, particularly along the offensive line and throughout the defense. Based on this week’s practice reports, it appears as if only LB Bud Dupree (back) is in danger of missing Week 16.
• The Falcons will have another change under center with QB Desmond Ridder heading back to the bench (his second benching of the season) while Taylor Heinicke re-enters the starting lineup. 
• This game includes two very different methods of madness, with the Falcons aiming to “do what they do, and do it well” regardless of opponent and the Colts being one of the more dynamic and quick-to-react teams in the league.

How indianapolis Will Try To Win ::

We’ve talked a lot about this Colts team this season because, well, they’re pretty freaking awesome for DFS. Not only do they play with pace on offense and have an extremely predictable defense, but their head coach and offensive play caller is one of the more dynamic entities in the league, capable and willing to alter course on offense depending on what’s working and what’s not. On the season, the Colts rank 22^nd in PROE, second in pace of play (27.2 seconds per play), eighth in points per game (24.6), and 27^th in points allowed per game (24.5). Going purely off their average points scored and points allowed, this team is akin to the “game of the week” in every game they play, averaging a combined 49.1 points per game. For comparison, the Commanders allow a league-worst 30.2 points per game and have scored 20.1 points per game, which ranks first in combined points per game this year and is a large reason why we love targeting their game environments. Their opponent for Week 16, the Atlanta Falcons, ranks seventh in yards allowed per carry and 11th in net yards allowed per pass attempt, which should be viewed as something the Colts will need to overcome in their perpetual quest to send game environments to the moon.

Zack Moss played five fully healthy contests in which Jonathan Taylor was absent this season, seeing snap counts of 98, 76, 83, 94, and 84 percent in those contests. Jonathan Taylor had worked his way up to an apex of 88 percent of the offensive snaps prior to leaving Week 12 with an injured thumb. Moss is expected to miss Week 16 with an injury to the arm he broke in preseason. All of that to say, if Taylor has no issues with his thumb regarding ball security or in pass protection, it is highly likely he sees a massive snap rate and workload in this spot. That, however, is the big question here, made worse by the fact that his thumb injury is on his dominant hand. Trey Sermon and Tyler Goodson are the only other backs currently on the active roster. The pure rushing matchup is on the more difficult side on paper against a Falcons defense holding opponents to 3.9 yards per carry behind 1.23 yards allowed before contact while ceding the third-fewest DK points per game to the position (17.4). Somewhat miraculously, the Falcons are the only remaining team to have not allowed a rushing score to an opposing running back this season. Their four total touchdowns allowed to running backs (all through the air) are the fewest in the league.

Michael Pittman took a scary-looking hit to the head via a launching defender in Week 16 but appears to be in the final stage of the concussion protocol after a full practice on Thursday. He’ll now need to pass the neurological test, which will be compared to his preseason test to determine mental acuity, but it looks like he’ll be good to go on Sunday. That should leave the team with their standard high-concentration of snaps and opportunities through the air, with Pittman and Alec Pierce serving as the two near-every-down pass-catchers. Josh Downs has settled into 70-80 percent of the offensive snaps, influenced almost entirely by the team’s heavy 11-personnel rates, while the team continues to utilize a four-man rotation at tight end amongst Kylen Granson, Mo Alie-Cox, Drew Ogletree, and Will Mallory. The Falcons have utilized league-average rates of man and zone coverage this season. Pittman leads the team in most significant metrics against each primary coverage, including fantasy points per route run, TPRR, target rate, and receiving production, and should continue to be the alpha option in this offense.

How atlanta Will Try To Win ::

Game Overview ::

By hilow >>

• Those sensitive to robust injury reports should avert their eyes from the Packers’ practice report this week.
• Packers WRs Christian Watson (hamstring) and Jayden Reed (toe/chest) have yet to practice this week (as of Thursday), placing each of their game-day statuses in doubt.
• Packers RBs Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon both managed two limited sessions to start the week, in addition to WR Dontayvion Wicks.
• While the Panthers have a cleaner bill of health on the offensive side of the ball, three outside linebackers have yet to practice this week, including standout Brian Burns (illness), Yetur Gross-Matos (illness), and Marquis Haynes (back/illness).
• The Panthers face the highest overall rush rate against this season, while the Packers face the fourth highest.
• The Packers need to win out while also getting help to make the postseason, while the Panthers are playing to screw over the Bears’ draft pick.

How green bay Will Try To Win ::

The Packers rank near the middle of the pack (get it? Sorry, that was unwarranted) in PROE but average just 61.1 offensive plays per game, which leaves them at a below-average 24.4 rush attempts per game (27^th) and average 34.8 pass attempts per game (15^th). The overall identity of this team is to string together methodical drives on offense while taking sporadic shots downfield (primarily to Christian Watson, who appears unlikely to play in Week 16), with an ultra-prevent defense designed to force opponents to march the field. That has led to just 125 offensive plays per game in games involving the Packers this season. The Packers are also dealing with two major injuries on offense in wide receivers Christian Watson and Jayden Reed, each of whom has yet to practice this week. Both appear likely to miss Week 16 against the Panthers.

Both Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon started the practice week with consecutive limited sessions, leaving both likely to play but with concerns over their respective workloads. Aaron Jones returned to action in Week 15 after three consecutive missed games, handling 17 running back opportunities on just 48 percent of the team’s offensive snaps. The Packers have a proven knack for keeping their backs below 20 opportunities, which has thrust former practice squad back Patrick Taylor into an elevated role over the previous month of play (Jones missed the first three games in that span while Dillon missed Week 15). The matchup against the Panthers is only middling on paper, with the team ceding 4.0 yards per carry (11^th) behind the sixth lowest yards allowed before contact (1.10), with the glaring weakness coming in the red zone (the Panthers have allowed a touchdown on 71.11 percent of opposing red zone trips this season, second worst in the league, and have allowed a robust 22 touchdowns to opposing backs, worst in the league).

Assuming both Christian Watson and Jayden Reed miss Week 16, the Packers are likely to have a primary pass-catching corps of wide receivers Romeo Doubs, Dontayvion Wicks, and Malik Heath, with tight end Tucker Kraft in a near every-down role and Aaron Jones capable of seeing five to six looks through the air. None of those players carry immense upside against the heavy zone rates of the Carolina defense, with only Jayden Reed ranking out as above average against zone this season (solid if he plays, but appears unlikely at this time). Romeo Doubs leads the way of the remaining players, holding a sub-elite 20.4 percent target share and putrid 13.6 percent TPRR against zone this season. It’s just a smattering of mediocrity against zone from the Packers this season, which does not bode well in this matchup, considering the Panthers have utilized the third-highest rate of zone coverage in 2023.

How carolina Will Try To Win ::

Game Overview ::

By HILOW >>

• Browns OG Joel Bitonio (back, knee) has yet to practice this week (as of Thursday), which is notable considering Bitonio is one of the best pure run-blocking interior linemen in the league.
• Texans QB C.J. Stroud (concussion) has yet to practice this week, signaling that he has still not progressed past the first stage of the league’s five-step concussion protocol (which means he is likely still experiencing headaches as a player is not allowed to return to practice, in any capacity, until headaches have subsided). It is highly likely that Stroud is out in Week 16.
• Texans WRs Nico Collins (calf) and Noah Brown (knee) have each been available for two limited sessions this week – I expect both will play against the Browns.
• Texans TE Brevin Jordan and WR John Metchie missed practice on Wednesday with an illness but returned to limited sessions Thursday.
• Of the games with sub-elite game totals, this one carries the highest raw ceiling and the most intrigue (to me, anyway).

How CLEVELAND Will Try To Win ::

The Browns started the Joe Flacco Experience with a top five rush rate over expectation (RROE) on the season but have since allowed Flacco to just go out there and do Flacco things, slowly nudging their season-long PROE values higher in the process. Three consecutive games with 44 pass attempts or more will do that, but that is exactly where the Browns currently stand as a team (and I love it, and so, too, should you!). The fact that the Browns have allowed a league-high 30.7 points per game on the road this season helps bolster the expectation of a pass-heavy approach here, which gains even more credence through the likely absence of guard Bitonio, who is one of the league’s top run-blocking interior offensive linemen. The baseline expectation is for 30-40 percent of the team’s offensive snaps to come from 12-personnel, which is now paired with a tight three-man cadre at wide receiver amongst Amari Cooper, Elijah Moore and Cedric Tillman and a loose three-way timeshare at running back, with Jerome Ford the lead back, Kareem Hunt the primary change-of-pace option and green-zone back, and Pierre Strong mixing in for the leftovers.

Ford loves playing every snap on the opening drive only to be forgotten about in the second half. Mostly kidding, but there is some shred of truth to that outlandish statement. He has played between 51 percent and 57 percent of the offensive snaps in the previous three games with Flacco under center, spelled primarily by Hunt in a change-of-pace plus green-zone role, with each back responsible for one touchdown in that span. Hunt was limited in both practices this week with a groin injury but it appears as if he’ll play Sunday – even so, monitor his situation heading into the weekend. The pure rushing matchup is about as difficult as they come against a Texans defense ceding just 3.4 yards per carry (second) behind just 1.02 yards allowed before contact (second) to opposing backfields this season.

Let’s take a little journey, shall we? A total of 133 pass attempts in a three-game span for Mr. Flacco. Cooper missed most of his first game under center, seeing five targets prior to departing early with injury. Over the next two games, Cooper and David Njoku combined to account for 44 targets on 89 total pass attempts from Flacco, good for a tidy 49.4 percent combined target market share. Furthermore, the two combined for exactly 22 targets in each of those games. To make this as blunt as possible, would you pay $11,700 for a wide receiver if you knew that wide receiver was going to see 22 targets in a game? Obviously that is an extremely archaic way of highlighting what this combination of two pass catchers has done with Flacco under center, but I think it gets the points across tidily. Tillman has seen a combined 12 targets over the previous two games, Ford has seen 11, Moore has seen nine, and no other pass catcher has seen more than three during that span.

How houston Will Try To Win ::

Game Overview ::

By hilow >>

• The Lions continue to enjoy a season of relative health, with the biggest name on their injury report C Frank Ragnow (knee/back/toe), who continues to miss practice with multiple injuries. That said, he also continues to play through multiple injuries.
• Vikings RB Alexander Mattison (ankle) has not practiced in any capacity since injuring his ankle in Week 14. He appears extremely unlikely to play against the Lions.
• QB Nick Mullens will start for the Vikings for the second straight week.

How detroit Will Try To Win ::

As we continue to talk about throughout the site, the Lions have been relegated to “trying to score more points than their opponent” this season due to a relative inability to stop opponents from scoring. Their games this season have combined for 41 points, 68 points, 26 points (against the Falcons), 54 points, 68 points, 26 points (against the Buccaneers), 44 points, 40 points, 79 points, 57 points, 51 points, 61 points, 41 points, and 59 points. In other words, the Lions have played to an average of 51.1 points per game this year, with four absolute eruption game environments. They are still very much a team that aims to win with an attack biased toward the ground game, particularly in the red and green zones. Overall, the Lions rank 23^rd in PROE, second in plays per game (66.9), seventh in rush attempts per game (29.3), and 11^th in pass attempts per game 35.6).

The backfield continues to be rather straightforward to dissect, albeit with the added caveat that the split in workload between David Montgomery and electric rookie Jahmyr Gibbs is prone to influence from the game environment. Gibbs is the back likelier to see the most snaps and opportunities in negative game environments, Montgomery is the back likelier to see the most snaps and opportunities in positive game environments, and the two are likely to be near-even in neutral game environments. The opportunity split between the two in the last four games has been 19, 10, 15, 13 for Gibbs to 16, 20, 13, 20 for Montgomery, with Montgomery leading the way in both wins and Gibbs leading the way in both losses. But that split in backfield work also means that neither is likely to exceed 20 running back opportunities on a given week while sharing the 29.3 rush attempts the team averages per game. Montgomery has gone over 20 DK points on two occasions in 10 games played together while Gibbs has done so three times in 10 games where both are healthy. Montgomery has provided a GPP-worthy score just once in those shared games based on his current salary while Gibbs has done so twice. All of that to say, this backfield remains a tight timeshare and either back needs touchdown variance to work in their favor to return elite level production. The matchup is not ideal this week against a Vikings defense holding opposing backs to 3.7 yards per carry (fifth) behind 1.13 yards allowed before contact (eighth).

It’s a similar story for the Detroit pass offense, with Amon-Ra St. Brown and rookie tight end Sam LaPorta the only two players that see near every-down roles. Josh Reynolds, Jameson Williams, Kalif Raymond, and Donovan Peoples-Jones rotate through the remaining snaps at wide receiver with Williams now seeing the highest snap rate of the lot (52-68 percent since the team’s Week 9 bye). St. Brown has now gone over 100 yards or scored a touchdown in 12 of 14 games this season, doing both in the same game three times. That has left him with four instances of 26.2 DK points or more this season, which would be the threshold to classify his GPP-viable scores based on an inflated salary. LaPorta has scored 17.7 DK points or more in six of 14 games, with his salary now ballooned to a point where he has returned a 3x salary multiplier just twice this season based on his current salary. That said, nine touchdowns at tight end is noticeable, offsetting the fact that he has seen double-digit targets just three times this season. The Vikings have run top 10 rates of zone coverage this season while blitzing at the highest rate in the league, which has allowed them to hold opponents to just 5.8 net yards per pass attempt while ranking second in yards allowed per route run when in zone. In other words, this is a tough on-paper matchup for Lions pass-catchers this week. Finally, the Lions have performed worse as a team against zone in comparison to their exploits versus man, with only St. Brown and LaPorta grading as above average against zone this season.

How Minnesota Will Try To Win ::

Game Overview ::

By hilow >>

• Commanders RB Brian Robinson (hamstring) did not practice Wednesday or Thursday, which is concerning coming off of a bye and missed contest.
• Jets QB Zach Wilson (concussion) has yet to practice this week (as of Thursday) while QB Aaron Rodgers is unlikely to play for the remainder of the 2023 season.
• It appears as if QB Trevor Siemian is in line to start under center for the Jets.
• Jets WR Jason Brownlee returned to a full practice Thursday after two missed games.

How Washington Will Try To Win ::

The biggest change to this Commanders team is on the defensive side of the ball, where head coach Ron Rivera is now calling defensive plays for his franchise. Washington has allowed a league-worst 30.2 points per game this season. Guess how many they’ve allowed since the firing of Del Rio? 73, or 36.5 per game. As we talked about with this team the week after Del Rio was let go, it’s very difficult to immediately turn things around with only a week, or two, or five, of practice during the middle of an NFL season. What we’ve seen from this defense is a stark shift from above average rates of man coverage to extreme rates of Cover-2, a defensive alignments designed to instill a sense of confusion for opposing quarterbacks due to its relatively static appearance before the snap. The problem is these players have had to adjust to an entirely new scheme on the fly in the middle of a grueling NFL season, which, understandably, has not gone to plan. The Commanders have also now allowed a top five running back score in five consecutive weeks, primarily induced via extreme production allowed through the air. On the other side of the ball, nothing has appreciably changed throughout the season, with an offense that ranks third in PROE, first in pass attempts (38.9), and first in pass play rate (66.37 percent). Finally, the things that offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy was doing during the middle of the season, like designing an offense to get the ball out of quarterback Sam Howell’s hands quickly to avoid pressure and sacks, have largely dried up in recent weeks.

Lead back Brian Robinson missed Week 15 with his hamstring injury and currently projects to miss Week 16. In that Week 15 contest, Jonathan Williams came out of the woodwork to split early down work with Chris Rodriguez, with the team keeping Antonio Gibson’s role relatively static. That, outside of the sneak appearance from Williams, was discussed as a viable outcome leading into the Week 15 slate (when, as you remember, Antonio Gibson was chalk). There’s not much that we should expect to have changed between now and the team’s Week 15 preparation, leaving a likeliest scenario that mirrors what we saw last week. The Jets have faced the second highest opponent rush rate this season due to routinely negative game environments but haven’t performed terribly from a per-touch standpoint, holding opponents to 4.0 yards per carry (10^th) behind a middling 1.25 yards allowed before contact (14^th). And since we don’t all of a sudden expect the Commanders insane pass rates to dip, it doesn’t leave a ton of individual upside for any member of this backfield.

As we’ve talked about all season, an extremely unconcentrated pass offense and a demonstated inability for Bieniemy to tailor his offense to the weaknesses of an opponent has left very few instances of GPP viability from any of the primary pass-catchers in this offense. Terry McLaurin had his best statistical game of his career in Week 15 (6-141-1) while Curtis Samuel’s two touchdown game propelled him to 21.1 DK points. The caveat there is that the Commanders managed to score three touchdowns in the final 22 minutes of play against a defense that went into a prevent-shell, after being blanked on the scoreboard for the first 38 minutes. It was also backup quarterback Jacoby Brissett that led two of those touchdown drives after Sam Howell was benched entering the third quarter. This appears to still be Howell’s team, with Bieniemy explaining the benching as a learning opportunity early this week. Either way, Curtis Samuel now has two GPP-viable scores through 14 games, Terry McLaurin has one, Jahan Dotson has one, and tight end Logan Thomas has one. In other words, out of a potential for 56 combines games between the four primary pass-catchers, they have returned five GPP-viable scores. That’s an 8.9 percent hit rate, far lower than the baseline expectation of 25 percent based on the DK pricing algorithm’s output. And now they take on a Jets defense holding opponents to 5.1 net yards per pass attempt, with games already played against the Dolphins (twice), Texans, Chargers (before they were broken), Bills (twice), and Cowboys, amongst others.

How new york Will Try To Win ::

Game Overview ::

By papy324 >>

• The Seahawks are likely to get Geno Smith back after a multi-week absence due to a groin injury.
• The Titans haven’t been the same run defense since they lost DT Jeffrey Simmons and teams have started to notice.
• The Titans almost always give up one big WR stat line, but usually, it’s only one, creating an interesting choice between DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett, and Jaxon-Smith Njigba.
• Will Levis has yet to practice early in the week with an ankle injury, setting up Ryan Tannehill to start. The Titans were notably more conservative early in the season with Tannehill under center.
• Derrick Henry has been in a timeshare with Tyjae Spears. The workload split tends to favor Henry in games the Titans win. Henry has been particularly effective in Tennessee, producing large home/away splits this season.

How seattle Will Try To Win ::

The 7-7 Seahawks come into Week 16 fresh off a thrilling final drive victory courtesy of Drew Lock on Monday Night Football. Lock’s heroics kept the Seahawks season alive, as they currently sit in a four-way tie with the Vikings, Saints, and Rams for the final two NFC playoff spots. Seattle desperately needed a win, having lost their previous three games. Five of the Seahawks past six opponents have been the Ravens, the 49ers twice, the Cowboys, and the Eagles. That’s about as tough a stretch as possible, and the Titans should provide a much needed reprieve from playing the best teams in the league. Pete Carroll spent most of his career calling conservative, run-oriented game plans. Ironically, after the departure of Russell Wilson, Carroll finally changed his philosophy. The Seahawks have played fast (fifth in pace) but they’ve been noticeably slower with Lock under center. Geno Smith is expected to return, which means there is a good chance Seattle will return to their up-tempo offense. Their offensive line has been poor (27^th ranked per PFF), especially on the right side, where RG Anthony Bradford has been a turn-style the past two weeks, allowing pressure on 12.7% of pass plays. The Titans pass rush has been above average (ninth in sack rate), which means Seattle might have issues keeping Geno upright. The Seahawks want to throw as they are ranked ninth in pass rate over expectation (PROE) but the combination of leaky pass protection and Geno coming off a lower body injury may lead them to run more than usual this week. 

The Titans have been solid against the run (11^th in DVOA) and smoked through the air (27^th in DVOA). The Titans have been one of the league’s premier pass funnels for the past several seasons but that has begun to change the past month after the loss of DT Jeffrey Simmons devastated their run defense, as they’ve had the fourth worst graded run defense and surrendered the sixth highest rushing success rate since Simmons’ injury. Teams have taken notice and have started to run more against the Titans. That doesn’t mean the Titans pass defense is good. They’ve still been hit for a big game by at least one enemy receiver practically every week, but it does show that teams are reacting to how poor the Titans have been against the run without Simmons. Assuming Geno plays, the Seahawks are still likely to lean pass, but probably not with the extreme pass rates that we have seen teams go with against the Titans in the past. Expect a pass leaning, but still balanced game plan from Seattle, with a willingness to try and run out the clock if they take the lead. 

How tennessee Will Try To Win ::

Game Overview ::

By mike johnson >>

• Both of these teams enter Week 16 tied for the lead in their respective divisions.
• This is a matchup of two “pass funnel” defenses who both rank in the top 6 in the NFL in opponent pass rate.
• Trevor Lawrence is battling a concussion and seems unlikely to play after missing the first two days of practice this week.
• Tampa Bay has a relatively concentrated offense and is likely to struggle moving the ball on the ground.
• The Tampa offense should be able to put up points this week, while the Jaguars approach and efficiency will be the driving factor in whether or not we can see a high-scoring affair.

How Jacksonville Will Try To Win ::

Things are falling apart quickly for the Jaguars, who have lost three straight games and enter Week 16 in a three-way tie for the division lead while several key offensive players battle injuries. They have already lost Christian Kirk to a groin injury and now may be without WR Zay Jones and QB Trevor Lawrence as they head down the coast to face the Bucs. Lawrence reportedly suffered a concussion on the final drive of the Jaguars loss to the Ravens on Sunday night and has not practiced yet this week, as of Thursday. Given the way the NFL has handled head injuries since the Tua Tagovailoa drama from last season and the fact that Lawrence is the future of this Jacksonville franchise, it would seem likely that the Jaguars will be cautious with Lawrence and his to-date lack of activity indicates they are likely to be without him.

Assuming Lawrence is out, the Jaguars will turn to veteran backup CJ Beathard. We have seen Beathard in meaningful action only once this year, three weeks ago late in the game against the Bengals after Lawrence hurt his ankle. Jacksonville ranks fourth in pass rate over expectation (PROE) and is facing a Tampa Bay defense whose opponents pass at the fifth highest rate in the league. The interesting thing about the Bucs defense, however, is that they are starting to get healthy and have several key players potentially returning this week. Also of note is the fact that Tampa Bay is ranked 30th in PFF run defense grade. Another critical factor is that the Jaguars are set to be without Kirk and Jones, which alters the status of their receiving corps and could change their approach. If we assume Beathard is starting and is going to have limited weapons, we can also reasonably infer that Jacksonville may not attack Tampa Bay through the air as aggressively as many teams have in recent weeks. Considering the fact that Tampa’s run defense has been decent but not elite, we could see a situation unfold where the Jaguars attempt to control the game on the ground and rely on their defense to keep them in it until the fourth quarter. Given all the circumstances the Jaguars are facing and what they have on the line, it seems likely they will turn to Travis Etienne as a focal point of the offense while banking on their seventh ranked DVOA defense to make some plays and give them a chance.

How tampa bay Will Try To Win ::

game Overview ::

By MIKE JOHNSON >>

• These two teams have had rough seasons but still have a lot to play for as they look to evaluate players and build momentum for 2024.
• Dual-threat quarterbacks on both sides of the ball should help these offenses keep the chains moving
• Trey McBride has ascended to become the focal point of the Cardinals offense.
• Arizona’s defense has been abused many times this season, both on the ground and through the air, while the Chicago defense has been very good the last few weeks.
• Chicago is likely to control this game, as the Bears have been a much tougher team than their current record indicates.

How ARIZONA Will Try To Win ::

Arizona was able to put up a respectable effort against the 49ers on the scoreboard last week and managed 436 total yards of offense. Arizona scored the opening touchdown of the game and kept things within eight points heading into halftime, but San Francisco was in control the whole way en route to a 45-29 victory. The Cardinals have been more consistent offensively since the return of Kyler Murray with a 2-3 record during that stretch, but they have fallen into some very bad game scripts against teams who were able to expose their overmatched defense. The Cardinals seem likely to be without top wide receiver Marquise Brown after he left last week’s game with a heel injury. Since the Cardinals moved Trey McBride into the starting tight end position he has not disappointed and he is now clearly the top option for them in the passing game. McBride has at least nine targets in four of his last five games and has 89 or more receiving yards in four of his last seven games. For comparison’s sake, only one time in 14 games has a Cardinals wide receiver surpassed 89 receiving yards (Brown in Week 4). As for the running game, the Cardinals utilized three running backs last week, as they gave rookie Emari Demercado and veteran pass-catching back Michael Carter some work alongside veteran James Conner. 

Arizona will face a Bears defense that has been thriving recently. Weather forecasts currently predict a relatively mild day for December in Chicago, with temperatures around 50 and no excessive wind or precipitation. The Bears have been especially strong against the run and rank No. 3 in the league in both run defense DVOA and yards per carry allowed. While Arizona ranks 31st in the NFL in PROE, it is likely that they will have no choice but to raise their pass rate and/or use Kyler Murray’s legs in this matchup if they want to move the football. Arizona ranks ninth in rushing offense DVOA, but 29th in PFF run blocking grade. Their poor run blocking is unlikely to open big holes against a stout run defense, leaving the Cardinals to lean on Murray and McBride to create offense and sustain drives. The absence of Brown in the receiving corps also places some limits on what they can expect from their perimeter players in this matchup, which once again should force Murray and McBride to be focal points of the Cardinals attack.

How CHICAGO Will Try To Win ::

Game Overview ::

By MIKE JOHNSON >>

• This is a matchup of the two highest-scoring offenses in the NFL.
• Dallas operates at a quick pace and throws the ball at an extremely high rate, while Miami operates at a slower pace and runs the ball more often and efficiently.
• The ability of the Dallas defense to generate pressure will be critical to this game, as Tua Tagovailoa is extremely pressure sensitive in his efficiency.
• The Dolphins are likely to use their elite rushing scheme to attack a Cowboys defense that was torched on the ground by Buffalo last week.
• Miami’s defense has performed very well recently but has struggled against the few high-level offenses it has faced this season.

How dallas Will Try To Win ::

The Cowboys were brought back down to earth a bit in their Week 15 loss to the Bills, as Buffalo was able to dominate them in the trenches on both sides of the ball. The Bills were able to sack Dak Prescott three times and hit him seven others as Dak was held to his worst game of the season, one that marked only the second time since the team’s Week 7 bye that he failed to reach 200 passing yards. Dallas ran the ball efficiently while averaging 4.5 yards per carry, but the Cowboys were unable to stick with the run as they fell behind early and were pummeled by Buffalo’s rushing attack. This marked the fourth loss of the season for the Cowboys and the third which came at the hands of a fellow “powerhouse” among the current NFL landscape.

This week, Dallas will be tested once again as they travel to face a Dolphins team that has been dynamic and explosive offensively all year and is the only team in the NFL averaging more points than the Cowboys. Looking at the track record of the Dolphins defense, however, you can see that their recent strong performance can be largely attributed to their poor schedule of opponents. Since their Week 10 bye, they have faced the Jets (twice), Commanders, Titans, and Raiders. Those teams all rank 22nd or worse in offensive DVOA for the season, while the Cowboys rank ninth overall and have been one of the top units in the league since moving to a more pass-centric game plan after their bye week. Miami has faced three offenses this season that rank in the top 10 in offensive DVOA – Buffalo, Kansas City, and Philadelphia. Those teams combined to average 33 points per game against them, and two of the three (BUF and PHI) had wildly efficient passing games. Miami was also exposed on Monday night in Week 14 by rookie quarterback Will Levis and the Titans, as the Dolphins coughed up a two-score fourth quarter lead.

Looking at how Dallas will approach this game, we should expect them to have an aggressive mindset from the start and feel the need to be efficient and explosive when they have the ball. Dallas ranks sixth in the NFL in Pass Rate Over Expectation (PROE) for the season and should have the tools to move the ball against this Miami defense that has struggled against formidable opponents. Miami has the league’s fourth-lowest blitz rate, which should give Prescott a lot more time to throw than he had in Buffalo. A key part of that will be the health of the Cowboys’ offensive line, and we will want to monitor the status of tackle Tyron Smith and guard Zack Martin, who both missed practice on Wednesday. In any scenario, the Cowboys should be very pass heavy and are also likely to try to involve Tony Pollard more in space, as they did two weeks ago against the Eagles. If their offensive line is less than full strength, we may see their passing game concepts focus more on the short areas of the field to get the ball out of Prescott’s hands quickly. However, the Bills, Raiders, Titans and Eagles have all had success downfield against Miami, and Dallas will certainly take some shots as well. An underrated aspect of Dallas’ approach is likely to be how badly their run defense was exposed last week and how critical that makes it for them to score points early so Miami can’t just pound them on the ground like Buffalo did. Early possessions for Dallas will be critical, and the Cowboys will need to not just move the ball, but also turn those drives into touchdowns to control the game.

How miami Will Try To Win ::

XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT

Just when I thought island games couldn’t sink any lower, we have the Patriots taking on the Broncos on Sunday night. This game has an exciting 34 point total with the Broncos favored by 7, which means the Patriots are projected for a whopping 13 points. Fun. We have some injury stuff on the Pats side with Rhamondre Stevenson and JuJu Smith-Schuster ruled out, while I expect Hunter Henry will play after he was able to practice on Friday. 

Denver

On the Broncos side, we have a massive home favorite running back with a strong workload and solid passing game involvement in Javonte Williams. When the Broncos are competitive or playing from ahead, Javonte has been playing 60%+ of the snaps consistently. Since Week 7, when he looked fully ramped up from last season’s injury, Javonte has averaged 16.75 carries and 3.5 targets per game, and in Broncos wins that number goes up to 18.2 carries and 3.8 targets. That’s a healthy workload. The problem is the matchup is awful: the Patriots rank 1st in run defense DVOA and are allowing the fewest yards per carry of any defense in the NFL at just 3.1. At running back, we generally care most about volume, and while matchup is certainly relevant, volume can trump it (especially in a one-game Showdown). I’m in on Javonte as a solid play even if he doesn’t quite check every box. Part of that is just because there aren’t a ton of other really solid plays on this slate, so by comparison, Javonte stands out. Behind him, we’ll see Samaje Perine in the main RB2/passing down back role with Jaleel McLaughlin mixing in occasionally. Perine doesn’t get many carries but can be counted on for a couple of targets per game. In a game script in which the Broncos are likely to play from ahead, I’m not super into him as he’s generally only seen 2-3 targets in most Broncos wins. He fits better in rosters predicated on a Patriots upset. McLaughlin is more of a straight backup to Javonte and doesn’t see much work, though he is consistently getting a couple of targets most games which gives him some semblance of floor on Draftkings. For both Perine and McLaughlin, their passing game roles mean that if they luck into a touchdown they stand a solid chance of being optimal (i.e. they don’t need an injury to Javonte to have a chance of paying off). 

Showdown Ownership Projections!

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In the passing game, there’s Courtland Sutton and everyone else. Sutton is the only guy playing a nearly full time role in this offense while Jerry Jeudy, who was drafted well ahead of Sutton before the season, is hanging around the 65-70% snap rate most weeks. Sutton is also dominating red zone usage with 17 targets, leading the team (Jeudy has 9), though when they get in close they tend to lean more towards their tight ends (more on that in a bit). Overall, Sutton leads Jeudy in target share 22.5% to 20.2%, in air yards share 34.4% to 30.8%, in red zone usage, and in just about everything you can think of. However, their prices have (finally) diverged after being pretty close in Showdowns for most of the season with Sutton jumping up all the way to $11k while Jeudy is $8k. Sutton’s been good this year but $11k in Showdown is true alpha wide receiver territory where we normally find guys like CeeDee Lamb, Stef Diggs, Justin Jefferson, and the like. Given the context of the slate without a lot of really strong plays on it, Sutton’s still fine, but I think that for the first time this season, I prefer Jeudy to him. Behind those two we have rookie Marvin Mims, who is playing more snaps as the season goes on but who hasn’t come down with one of the long catches he was getting earlier in the year (he did get a long DPI call last week, so he’s still getting at least a bit of deep work) and then Lil’Jordan Humphrey, who appears to have eclipsed Brandon Johnson for WR3 snaps (42%, 57%, 58% the last three weeks while Johnson has all but disappeared). I want to keep taking shots on Mims because I believe in his talent, especially as ownership on him continues to be fairly modest in Showdowns (anything under 10-15% feels good to me). Humphrey is “fine” in that he’s on the field a fair bit and while he doesn’t earn many targets, at his price, if he catches a touchdown as he did last week, he’s probably viable in tournaments. 

At tight end, the position is led by Adam Trautman, who has played the second most snaps of any pass catcher on the team behind Sutton, though “pass catcher” is a somewhat flexible term when talking about Trautman as he’s averaging only slightly over two targets per game. Where Trautman shines is close to the end zone: Sutton leads the team in red zone targets, but inside the 10 yard line Trautman actually has the advantage, 8 to 7. Trautman has almost zero yardage upside and would be a TD-or-bust play. Chris Manhertz will play a few snaps but largely as a blocker – he hasn’t had a target since Week 10. Finally, Lucas Krull is interesting to me at just $800 – Krull’s snaps have climbed, up to a season-high of 45% last week, to go along with three targets. His route participation is a reasonable 41.7% and his aDOT is a very healthy 12.8 yards – he’s not on the field a ton, but when he is, he’s running routes and they aren’t little dinky short routes. He has solid per-target upside and it seems like he’s getting more involved in the offense. He’s still a thin punt play with no real floor to speak of, but if he’s coming in at low ownership than guys like Humphrey and Trautman, while at a cheaper price and with a higher aDOT, sign me up. 

New England

Game Overview ::

By mike johnson >>

• This game is a rematch of the Week 12 matchup where the Raiders jumped ahead early before the Chiefs ran away with it.
• Both defenses have been far more beatable on the ground than through the air this season.
• Kansas City should be getting back starting running back Isiah Pacheco after he missed the last two games.
• The Raiders are coming off a dominant performance against the Chargers where they scored 63 points and got Brandon Staley fired.
• Both offenses rank in the bottom 10 in seconds per play, which indicates this could be a game with low play volume.

How las vegas Will Try To Win ::

Las Vegas had an awful outing in Week 14, losing 3-0 (yes, you read that right) to the Vikings at home. Playing on a short week last Thursday it would have been easy to see them fold once again, but they had one of the more impressive outings of the season as they scored 42 first half points against the Chargers and walked away with a 63-21 victory. The Raiders played well, without question, but a lot of that performance was thanks to Los Angeles looking completely disinterested in competing and making huge mistakes that gave the Raiders several turnovers and a couple of defensive touchdowns. The Raiders have a 3-3 record since Antonio Pierce took over as head coach and all three of their losses have come against teams that would be in the playoffs if they started today. This week, Las Vegas will have its hands full again as they travel to Arrowhead in December.

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The Raiders are facing a Chiefs defense that has been extremely good against the pass this season while struggling to contain strong opposing rushing attacks. Las Vegas has not been an overly aggressive team through the air with Aidan O’Connell at quarterback and Antonio Pierce as their head coach, and this does not seem like the week where they will open things up unless they are forced to. Star running back Josh Jacobs missed last week’s game but is reportedly working his way back and Pierce expressed optimism that he will be good to go. If that is the case, we should expect Jacobs to get a big workload, and the Raiders may mix in Zamir White a decent amount as well after he had a solid outing in the absence of Jacobs. The Raiders offense hasn’t been great in any area this season, but they clearly want to be a run-focused team and it seems unlikely that they will have much success against a ferocious Chiefs secondary this week. The Chiefs blitz at the fifth highest rate in the league and have defensive backs who are very physical and make it difficult for opponents to create quick separation. That combination is likely to cause issues for the Raiders through the air, increasing the likelihood of a run-focused game plan. 

Las Vegas ranks 26th in situation neutral pace of play and ran the ball on half of their first half offensive plays the last time they faced the Chiefs. Given the way the Chiefs defense is built and the way the Raiders want to play, it seems very obvious that Las Vegas will try to turn this game into a slugfest and win behind their defense and running game. The Raiders defense has been very good since Pierce took over and only the Chiefs have been able to score more than 21 points against them during their six games under Pierce. This game will be played in the cold outdoor weather in Kansas City and the Raiders have seen the Chiefs attack once, very recently. It would stand to reason that they will be better prepared to slow down Mahomes and company this time around and they will rely on Jacobs and their offensive line to keep their very slim playoff hopes alive.

How kansas city Will Try To Win ::

Game Overview ::

By mike johnson >>

• Philadelphia looks to end a three-game losing streak and keep their hopes for an NFC East title alive.
• The Giants and Tommy DeVito were brought back to reality last week as the Saints defense shut them down in a 24-6 rout. 
• The Giants have scored more than 17 points only three times this season, and all three instances came against teams in the bottom 5 in the NFL in defensive DVOA.
• This is a prime bounce-back spot for star wide receiver AJ Brown.
• New York may not have the personnel required to attack the defensive weakness of the Eagles.

How new york Will Try To Win ::

The Giants have been a “feel good” story of late, as everyone loves to cheer for an underdog, and their current quarterback is an undrafted rookie who grew up not far away. They went on a three-game winning streak during Tommy DeVito’s run as the starting quarterback, but last week, the Saints exposed them by shutting down the running game and exploiting DeVito’s shortcomings as a passer. New Orleans sold out to stop the Giants running backs, holding them to two yards per carry on twelve attempts, and dared the Giants to beat them through the air. New York was unable to do anything of the sort, as they managed only 73 passing yards through the first three-quarters of the game.

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This week the Giants face an Eagles defense that is generally much stronger against the run than the pass and that has given up several big games through the air this season. This presents a problem for the Giants as they are likely to need to score a lot of points to keep up with the Eagles, and they are going to struggle to establish a running game, which will likely leave DeVito in tough down-and-distance situations. After watching the tape from last week, the Eagles should feel very confident that they can create trouble for the Giants by focusing on containing Saquon Barkley and betting against the Giants passing game. The Eagles secondary has struggled at times this year, but those struggles have primarily been against strong passing teams and/or teams like the Commanders, whose offense naturally operates at a high pass rate. The Giants rank 22nd in the NFL in Pass Rate Over Expectation and 19th in seconds per play. This is not a team that is built to play fast or to throw often. DeVito is a complementary player whose most successful games have come when Saquon Barkley is able to be used as an effective focal point of the offense. The Giants will certainly try to make Barkley the engine of the offense again in this spot as they hope to draw the Eagles into a low-scoring battle, but it seems unlikely that they will be successful given the context of the matchup and their struggles sustaining drives last week when they went 2 for 16 on third down conversions.

How philadelphia Will Try To Win ::

Game Overview ::

By MIKE JOHNSON >>

• We are gifted with a Christmas day matchup of the top two teams in the NFL through 15 weeks.
• The Baltimore offense and San Francisco defense are each battling some injury issues.
• Baltimore’s offense relies on Lamar Jackson’s dynamic abilities to create opportunities for them while San Francisco has a balanced unit that can beat you from a variety of angles.
• This matchup features the #1 offense in the league facing the #2 defense in the league.
• San Francisco has scored 27 or more points in every game where all their key offensive skill players were healthy, while the Ravens have allowed 27 points only twice in 14 games.

How BALTIMORE Will Try To Win ::

The Ravens have built their lead in the AFC on the back of a quietly elite season from Lamar and one of the best defenses in the NFL. After dismantling the Jaguars last Sunday night, the Ravens are set for a huge test over the next two weeks as they face the NFC’s #1 seed (49ers) followed by the AFC’s #2 seed (Dolphins). Baltimore continues to battle the injury bug, as they lost explosive running back Keaton Mitchell to a devastating knee injury last week and have been playing without All-Pro tight end Mark Andrews for a few weeks now. Things will continue to ride primarily on the back of Lamar Jackson and the elite Baltimore defense as the Ravens look to take control of an AFC that is full of contenders with issues.

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Baltimore has opened things up this year and is passing at a much higher rate than they have in past seasons. They finally gave Lamar Jackson a receiving corps that has multiple playmakers and he is making good use of it with his highest passer rating since the 2020 season. This is also the healthiest season Jackson has had since 2020, as he played in only 12 games in each of the past two seasons. The loss of Mitchell will hurt this Baltimore offense, as he had another gear and appeared to be turning into a true difference maker in the offense. Defenses were having an extremely difficult time containing him while also having to account for the threat of Jackson. Now that Mitchell is out, we should expect Justice Hill’s role as a complementary back to Gus Edwards to grow. Edwards is more of a “hammer” as a physical grinder, but we are likely to see Lamar’s rushing role be heavily utilized this week as the Ravens look to replace the explosive ability of Mitchell. Through the air, Isaiah Likely has emerged as a legitimate weekly threat as a receiving tight end as the replacement for Mark Andrews. After a couple of slow weeks immediately after the Andrews injury, Likely has had consecutive weeks as the top receiving option for the Ravens.

The wide receiver trio of rookie Zay Flowers, Odell Beckham, and Rashod Bateman has emerged over the course of the season as well. When Baltimore does pass, it’s relatively aggressive downfield with Lamar Jackson ranking fifth in the NFL in average intended air yards. Some of those passes are by design and some are the result of Jackson buying time with his legs and extending plays to find receivers downfield. The 49ers have PFF’s #2 graded pass rush and are able to get pressure on opposing quarterbacks despite blitzing at the third-lowest rate in the league. This is a critical component for this week, as being able to pressure Jackson while also leaving “spies” in coverage to keep his rushes to short gains rather than huge explosive gains is critical to slowing down this Baltimore attack. The 49ers defense got a nice little “test run” against a similar style of quarterback last week when they faced Kyler Murray, who they sacked three times and intercepted twice. The Ravens will likely try to open this game by hammering the 49ers on the ground and controlling the tempo but will eventually need to open things up and create explosive plays if they want to keep up.

How SAN FRANCISCO Will Try To Win ::