Game Overview ::
By hilow >>
- Colts WR Michael Pittman (concussion) returned to a full practice Thursday, meaning he is in the final stage of the league’s concussion protocol and only needs to pass the independent neurological test that will be compared to his baseline test from preseason.
- Colts RB Jonathan Taylor (thumb) returned to a full practice Thursday and appears set to return from three missed contests.
- Colts RB Zack Moss (forearm) appeared to aggravate the arm he broke in preseason and has yet to practice (as of Thursday).
- The Falcons appear to be getting relatively healthy after a string of injuries to impact players, particularly along the offensive line and throughout the defense. Based on this week’s practice reports, it appears as if only LB Bud Dupree (back) is in danger of missing Week 16.
- The Falcons will have another change under center with QB Desmond Ridder heading back to the bench (his second benching of the season) while Taylor Heinicke re-enters the starting lineup.
- This game includes two very different methods of madness, with the Falcons aiming to “do what they do, and do it well” regardless of opponent and the Colts being one of the more dynamic and quick-to-react teams in the league.
How indianapolis Will Try To Win ::
We’ve talked a lot about this Colts team this season because, well, they’re pretty freaking awesome for DFS. Not only do they play with pace on offense and have an extremely predictable defense, but their head coach and offensive play caller is one of the more dynamic entities in the league, capable and willing to alter course on offense depending on what’s working and what’s not. On the season, the Colts rank 22nd in PROE, second in pace of play (27.2 seconds per play), eighth in points per game (24.6), and 27th in points allowed per game (24.5). Going purely off their average points scored and points allowed, this team is akin to the “game of the week” in every game they play, averaging a combined 49.1 points per game. For comparison, the Commanders allow a league-worst 30.2 points per game and have scored 20.1 points per game, which ranks first in combined points per game this year and is a large reason why we love targeting their game environments. Their opponent for Week 16, the Atlanta Falcons, ranks seventh in yards allowed per carry and 11th in net yards allowed per pass attempt, which should be viewed as something the Colts will need to overcome in their perpetual quest to send game environments to the moon.
Zack Moss played five fully healthy contests in which Jonathan Taylor was absent this season, seeing snap counts of 98, 76, 83, 94, and 84 percent in those contests. Jonathan Taylor had worked his way up to an apex of 88 percent of the offensive snaps prior to leaving Week 12 with an injured thumb. Moss is expected to miss Week 16 with an injury to the arm he broke in preseason. All of that to say, if Taylor has no issues with his thumb regarding ball security or in pass protection, it is highly likely he sees a massive snap rate and workload in this spot. That, however, is the big question here, made worse by the fact that his thumb injury is on his dominant hand. Trey Sermon and Tyler Goodson are the only other backs currently on the active roster. The pure rushing matchup is on the more difficult side on paper against a Falcons defense holding opponents to 3.9 yards per carry behind 1.23 yards allowed before contact while ceding the third-fewest DK points per game to the position (17.4). Somewhat miraculously, the Falcons are the only remaining team to have not allowed a rushing score to an opposing running back this season. Their four total touchdowns allowed to running backs (all through the air) are the fewest in the league.
Michael Pittman took a scary-looking hit to the head via a launching defender in Week 16 but appears to be in the final stage of the concussion protocol after a full practice on Thursday. He’ll now need to pass the neurological test, which will be compared to his preseason test to determine mental acuity, but it looks like he’ll be good to go on Sunday. That should leave the team with their standard high-concentration of snaps and opportunities through the air, with Pittman and Alec Pierce serving as the two near-every-down pass-catchers. Josh Downs has settled into 70-80 percent of the offensive snaps, influenced almost entirely by the team’s heavy 11-personnel rates, while the team continues to utilize a four-man rotation at tight end amongst Kylen Granson, Mo Alie-Cox, Drew Ogletree, and Will Mallory. The Falcons have utilized league-average rates of man and zone coverage this season. Pittman leads the team in most significant metrics against each primary coverage, including fantasy points per route run, TPRR, target rate, and receiving production, and should continue to be the alpha option in this offense.
You must be logged in to view collective notes about a game.
You must be logged in to add notes about a game.