Game Overview ::
By Hilow >>
- Bills RB James Cook (illness) popped on the team’s injury report Wednesday, missing practice with an illness. He’s likely to carry an injury designation into Saturday’s doubleheader but we’re unlikely to get more information regarding his health until game day. I would expect him to play.
- Chargers WR Keenan Allen (heel) was a ‘DNP’ on Tuesday and Wednesday. It appears likely that the veteran alpha wide receiver will miss his second consecutive game in Week 16. UPDATE: Allen has been ruled out for Week 16.
- The Chargers are a mess right now, leaving the Bills as likely to control the game environment from start to finish.
How BUFFALO Will Try To Win ::
The Bills departed their murderer’s row of opponents with a 2-1 record over the previous three weeks, losing in overtime to the Eagles (37-34) and beating the Chiefs (20-17) and Cowboys (31-10). That time period also roughly coincides with the departure of former offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey, who was fired prior to the team’s Week 11 game. Since the change at offensive play caller, the Bills have undergone quite the transformation on offense. They immediately went back to an offense based in 12-personnel upon the return of tight end Dawson Knox after starting the season with the highest rate of 12-personnel utilization and then transitioning to heavy rates of 11-personnel once Knox hit injured reserve. Beyond the fact that the Bills had their highest rush rate over expectation (RROE) game of the season in their Week 15 win over the Cowboys, the overall pass-rush splits have taken a smaller hit after the change in offensive coordinator than the field likely realizes, with the major differences being a higher concentration of touches in the backfield and offensive tendencies more susceptible to quick change based on game environment (these are positives). Considering the state of their opponent this week, a team limping to the end of the season down their franchise quarterback, their alpha wide receiver (Keenan will miss Week 16), their secondary pass catcher (Mike Williams), and numerous defensive players – and which also just fired their head coach – I expect the Bills to start the game with a rush-balanced approach before making alterations based on game flow. The likeliest game flow is very clearly the Bills controlling the contest throughout, which should allow them to lean heavier into their run game as the game progresses.
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As was mentioned above, one of the more drastic changes in this offense has been a higher touch-per-snap rate for Cook and an increase to his schemed usage through the air. After reaching 20 running back opportunities just once in the team’s first 10 games, Cook has seen opportunity counts of 21, 23, 15, and 28 over the previous four games without Dorsey. That said, his snap rates have actually taken a hit after Dorsey was removed, with snap rates of 46 percent, 43 percent, 44 percent, and 56 percent during that time. Which brings us back to his increased touch-per-snap rate, which is the major change with the backfield over the previous four games played. Latavius Murray and Ty Johnson are still going to be involved, but each plays a higher rate of empty snaps (snaps without a designed opportunity) in the new-look offense. The matchup on the ground is a good one against a Chargers defense allowing a middling 4.2 yards per carry but the most yards allowed before contact (1.90) in the league. The Bills should be able to find some level of success on the ground here.
Somewhat miraculously, Gabe Davis has two or fewer targets in three of four games after the change at offensive coordinator, all three of which resulted in goose eggs in the counting stats department. However, in the other game in that sample, the dude saw 12 targets, went over 100 yards, and scored – but that came against the pass-funnel Philadelphia defense. On a standard week, Davis and alpha wide receiver Stefon Diggs are the only near every-down pass catchers on the Bills offense, but we’ve seen this team alter its personnel groupings and snap rates to the extreme of late. Last week, when the Bills attempted just 15 passes, Diggs played a season-low 46 percent of the team’s offensive snaps as the team adopted a four-man rotation at wide receiver. That allowed Trent Sherfield to play his highest snap rate of the season at 57 percent. That is not the norm here, but it serves to highlight how much more fluid the Bills have been since the departure of Dorsey. Diggs continues to be the alpha in this pass offense, leading the team in targets in three of the previous four games since Dorsey left, receiving 11 looks to the 12 of Davis in the other.
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