Saints (

20.75) at
Rams (

24.75)

XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT

Week 16 kicks off with the Saints visiting the Rams. We have a healthy 46-point total with the Rams favored by 4. We also have a mostly clean injury report except for Chris Olave. As I write this on Tuesday evening, Olave returned to practice albeit in a limited fashion. While he doesn’t necessarily need a full practice to play, on a short week if he doesn’t get a full practice in, I think it’s more likely than not that he sits this one out again. I’m going to write this as if he’s out because if he’s in, it’s pretty clear who he is as a player and what his role is (Update: Olave is expected to play, more on this under the Saints write-up).

Los Angeles

On the Rams side, Kyren Williams has an absolutely massive role in this offense. He’s averaging 18.6 carries per game and 4.6 targets for a huge 23.2 running back opportunity count. Wow. The Saints have long had a reputation as a strong run defense, but they haven’t been this season as they’re 24th in run defense DVOA and 26th in yards per carry allowed. Kyren checks all the boxes: he’s a home favorite running back with a solid passing game and goal line role in a good matchup. He’s the strongest on-paper play on the slate, and he’ll be owned like it. Behind Kyren, Royce Freeman has a modest role – he got 13 carries in Week 12 in a blowout but has otherwise had one, three, and six carries in the games since Kyren returned from injury. He would need at the very least a lucky touchdown and more likely an injury to Kyren to be relevant. 

Showdown Ownership Projections!

Ownership updates automatically

In the passing game, the Rams revolve around Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua. Both are awesome. Kupp has had the big games the last two weeks (last week driven by him being left COMPLETELY uncovered for one of the most ridiculous 60+ yard touchdowns you’ll ever see in the NFL), but their roles are very similar. Kupp has 31 targets in the last four weeks (since his most recent injury) for a combined 25/283/3 line while Puka has 31 targets for a combined 18/266/1 line. Kupp has a few more catches, while the yardage is almost identical. Kupp has found the end zone more often but that’s just variance. I view them as just about equal, so I’ll take the $1,400 discount with Puka. The matchup here is not a friendly one against a Saints defense that ranks 9th in pass defense DVOA, but it’s not terrible and these guys are good enough to hit in any matchup. And now . . . I have to write up DeMarcus Robinson because the DFS gods hate me. Robinson stepped into Tutu Atwell’s role when Atwell got injured, playing almost every snap. In Week 14, that resulted in an out-of-nowhere 10 targets, which led to him being (bad) chalk in Week 15 when he only saw three targets but caught a touchdown and thus paid off. I hate this dude with the fire of a thousand suns, but at $5,400, I have to admit he’s at least a reasonable option given that he’s seeing some modest volume and he’s clearly earned Stafford’s trust near the end zone, with touchdowns in each of his last three games. It’s gross and I’m going to go shower after finishing this paragraph, but he’s at least a playable option. 

At tight end, Tyler Higbee is a low floor, low upside option who has only broken double digit DK points three times this season (twice it required Kupp being out, the third time it took him scoring two touchdowns). At $5,800, I just don’t see the upside, and while I probably won’t X him out entirely, he is most definitely not a priority play for me in any way and I will be far underweight the field. Rookie TE Davis Allen filled in for Higbee when the latter missed Week 14, played well, and then played 35% of the snaps in Week 15 (his highest total of the season, by far, in a game in which Higbee also played). It’s unclear if that was because they didn’t intend Higbee to play a full workload in his first game back or if the Rams realized Higbee is terrible and wanted to work Allen in a bit more but I expect Allen is going to project for very little ownership, and if that is indeed the case, I’m willing to take a few shots here (if Allen projects under 5%, I’d probably aim for maybe 10% or so). 

New Orleans