JM’s journal will be live THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND
MONDAY, SEP 7 ::
LAMAR JACKSON + JALEN HURTS THOUGHTS ::
LAMAR JACKSON AND JALEN HURTS
I’m going to follow my thoughts here.
The next team in the logical order of what we’re working through is the Chargers. And then we’ll get to the Ravens, Eagles, and Bears, who I bucketed together at the top of the journal. I have deeper thoughts on the Eagles. I’m still very uncertain on how I want to think about and assess the Ravens. And I have thoughts around the Bears, but with lots of flags and question marks.
But before any of that I wanted to make a quick note on Jalen Hurts and Lamar Jackson in particular.
The Ravens are implied for 26 points, and the Eagles for 25.5. The three teams at the top of the list — the Chargers, the Lions, and the Bengals — are implied in the 27-28.5 point range.
What’s the difference, practically speaking, between a 25-26 implied total and a 27-28.5 implied total? Does such a small gap really make a difference?
The short answer: absolutely. Across the last five years, teams implied to score 27-28.5 will score four or more touchdowns 44.9% of the time, and five or more touchdowns 20% of the time. Teams implied to score 25-26, on the other hand, will score four or more touchdowns 32% of the time, and five or more touchdowns 13.2% of the time.
As you can see, there is a meaningful difference in touchdown scoring expectations across this relatively small gap in implied team totals.
But here’s why I’m highlighting Lamar Jackson and Jalen Hurts in particular.
I mentioned in the Buccaneers at Bengals write-up that quarterbacks without elite rushing outputs to their game average game scores of 35.8 to 27.4 in the games in which they score 30 or more DraftKings points. That’s a 63 point game. Elite rushing quarterbacks, on the other hand, average game scores of 33.1 to 23.8 in their 30 point games. That’s a 57 point game, and it is nearly a touchdown less of combined scoring that has to show up for them to get there (while also requiring less from the opponent — and from the game environment — as a whole).
So while the gap in touchdown expectations is meaningful between those top three teams and these next three teams, Jalen Hurts and Lamar Jackson in particular have a better chance at 30 DraftKings points than the quarterbacks in the games above them.
THE NUMBERS
Bucketing by rushing archetype and comparing 10 years of history against the exact implied team total and spread that each of these five is walking into this week, here are :: chance of 30 or more DraftKings points // chance of 4x the salary // chance of 4.5x the salary:
Lamar :: $6.8k // 29.6% // 36.1% // 27.4%
Hurts :: $6.6k // 23.7% // 31.9% // 23.9%
Herbert :: $6.1k // 16.0% // 37.0% // 23.8%
Goff :: $6.0k // 13.7% // 33.8% // 21.6%
Burrow :: $6.9k // 13.5% // 19.5% // 10.9%
The 4x bars, for reference, are 27.2 for Jackson, 26.4 for Hurts, 24.4 for Herbert, 24.0 for Goff, and 27.6 for Burrow.
Jackson and Hurts sit bottom two of these five in implied team total and rank one and two in chances at 30. Jackson is better than twice as likely as Burrow to get there, off an implied total a full point lower.
Herbert is the interesting one, and he is interesting in a specific/limited way. He leads all five at 4x — and he does that on price, not on ceiling. At $6.1k his bar is 24.4, which is the second lowest number any of these guys has to clear. Move the bar up to 4.5x and he falls back behind both of the elite rushers. He is the cheap access play here, not the ceiling play, and that is a real distinction when you are deciding what the rest of your roster looks like.
And with that, it’s time to swing over to Herbert and the fighting Harbaughs.
CARDINALS-CHARGERS THOUGHTS ::
CARDINALS AT CHARGERS
The Cardinals have one of the least talented rosters on paper. The Chargers have a high-end quarterback, top-tier bookends on the offensive line, a great young running back, a couple of good weapons in the pass game, and, most importantly, Mike McDaniel now scheming up the offense.
Our optimistic minds are probably magnetized toward a picture of something like a 40-20 final score. And if we do in fact get something like that, the Chargers will end up being one of the top offenses on the slate. But let’s take a step back first.
A true Shanahan offense (Mike LaFleur // Mike McDaniel) builds everything off the run, and will generally yield lower passing volume than other offenses around the NFL.
Shanahan 2023-2025
Kubiak 2024/2025 (Saints/Seahawks)
Slowik 2023-2024
Matt LaFleur 2023-2025
McDaniel 2023-2025
Across these thirteen team seasons, nine finished bottom-12 in pass play rate. And while these teams are basically league average in pass rate over expected, they call their games in a way that’s designed to avoid obvious passing situations.
Those 13 team seasons cited above? There were 56 games where those teams won by 13+, and they threw 30 or fewer times in 77% of them (median 28).
With all of this in mind, a bet on the Chargers’ passing attack is either a bet on this game playing out differently than expected (in which case your roster should account for that), or it’s a bet on efficiency from a pass catcher. And in terms of efficiency, here is what we have seen.
Six biggest DraftKings scores, and the targets it took to get there:
McConkey :: 32.1 on 6 // 29.4 on 10 // 26.0 on 9 // 23.7 on 12 // 23.7 on 6 // 21.3 on 9
Johnston :: 34.6 on 14 // 25.0 on 5 // 24.9 on 7 // 23.8 on 13 // 23.4 on 5 // 22.1 on 6
Four of McConkey’s six needed nine targets or more (and only three times in his career has he gone over 23.7). Four of Johnston’s six came on seven or fewer, but he’s topped 25.0 only once.
Now, I do think that the Chargers will score points in this game, with a really good shot at four touchdowns and a strong shot at five. (Recent history tells us that there’s a 20% or better chance that a team with the Chargers’ implied team total will score five or more touchdowns.) Which makes this a really safe offense to target, and it’s part of what makes it attractive.
But it sort of feels to me like this whole offense — or at least this whole passing attack — is in the same bucket as Chris Olave as a player. Rosters that lead with Herbert and stack him with a partner are highly unlikely to bust your roster, and there is upside attached (which is especially true at the affordable price tags where you can get these guys); but if leading with Herbert, you are covering multiple spots on your roster with “this type of player.”
All in all, I think that the Chargers’ passing attack is perfectly sharp to chase this week. And if I were playing 150 rosters, I would not only throw some darts at individual pass catchers, but would also focus specifically on David Njoku and Oronde Gadsden, each of whom is cheap, is likely to be low owned, and is capable of putting up a score out of sync with their price tag. On tighter builds I am very much still keeping Herbert and this passing attack in mind and in the mix. But I could see myself ultimately allocating somewhere between 0% to 10% of my bankroll to this passing attack, and tilting most of my focus elsewhere.
Still untouched in this exploration are the Chargers’ run game and the Cardinals’ offense. And I’ll start with the Cardinals’ offense, because this side feels low on certainty and middling on upside, which generally falls into the bucket of spots somewhat worth taking a small number of swings on in larger field tournaments, but otherwise worth leaving alone.
As people talk about the Cardinals, one thing that keeps coming up is Jacoby Brissett slinging the ball around the yard last year, with the highest pass play rate of any quarterback in the league. Arizona had a 69.9% pass play rate (highest) and 38.1 pass attempts per game (highest); but that was a team with no healthy running backs, and we now have Mike LaFleur bringing in a Shanahan system, with this veteran stopgap under center.
The power of Jacoby Brissett last year was that he was so inexpensive and throwing for so much volume, at a point in the year when price tags were at their highest and cheap producers were at a premium. But Week 1 is always our softest week of pricing on the year. And as I’ve already explored, I have to imagine that Mike LaFleur is going to lean on the run in the early going — trying (as these Shanahan-style teams do) to avoid falling into a drop-back passing game.
This feels to me like the type of game that could be 7-3 at the end of the first quarter, and 14-3 or 14-6 at halftime. And if that’s the case — if the Cardinals are competitive enough to keep this from turning into an early blowout, but not competitive enough to be keeping pace with the Chargers — then it’s the type of game that sets up a second half that opens similarly, to where it’s not until late in the third quarter, or early in the fourth quarter, that the Cardinals become more of a volume heavy dropback passing attack.
Memories of the money we made through Jacoby Brissett last year, along with the price tags on Michael Wilson and Marvin Harrison Jr., prevent this offense from falling completely off my radar. But we are looking at a team with the second-lowest implied team total on the slate, on an offense that should lean into the run in the early going.
And even if you feel comfortable placing a bet that Jeremiyah Love (assuming health) gets 20 touches in his first game, and even if you’re right, there’s still a question of how much you win when you win. Or, said differently — if he gets you 20 touches in this offense, does he put up a score that other people needed to have in order to win this week?
Trey McBride is always in the mix, even if I expect less passing volume than the Cardinals were giving us last year, and even in what is a tougher matchup in isolation against Derwin James. But outside of McBride, I don’t anticipate Cardinals’ pieces being in consideration for me on my tighter builds. Some solid scores could easily emerge from this offense. But I’m not too scared that I’ll miss out on a had-to-have-it score if I fade this team on my tighter builds altogether.
Finally, we have the Chargers’ rushing attack, which is also a little bit messy. Mike McDaniel literally put up wanted posters around the Chargers’ facilities to make sure the personnel department knew he wanted Keaton Mitchell. And McDaniel has also spoken glowingly of Kimani Vidal.
Do I really expect Vidal to take away meaningful touches from Omarion Hampton? Plainly: no, I don’t. Omarion Hampton is fast and powerful, with good vision and good balance. Said differently, Omarion Hampton is a genuinely good, high-end NFL running back.
The bigger question for me is how many touches does he get in the first game of the season, if this game plays out the way it’s expected to play out. And if he is getting 16 to 18 touches, how much efficiency do we need from him in order for him to be a strong, useful piece? Give him the 100-yard bonus and a touchdown or two, and he could genuinely be one of the stronger point-per-dollar plays on the slate. But if he falls shy of the 100-yard bonus and fails to score, he’s not adding a whole lot to your roster.
Realistically, I do feel pretty confident, given scoring expectations for this offense, in betting on Hampton having at least one score. And if we assume he falls shy of the 100-yard bonus but still rushes for 80 or 90 and adds 2 to 4 receptions, we’re looking at a pretty strong shot at 20 DraftKings points, with ceiling available from there. Put it all together and he’s not a player I’m scared to miss out on. But he is a player who will stay strongly in consideration for me.
Summing this up :: I like the Chargers’ passing attack, especially from a cost perspective — but I may not be on it too heavily // I like Chargers tight ends in large field play // I think the Cardinals are viable, but Trey McBride will probably be the only piece I’m focused on // and I don’t think Omarion Hampton puts up a score that puts the slate out of reach, but he’s a solid enough play, with a real enough opportunity for that type of score, that he’s worth keeping strongly in the mix.
COMMANDERS-EAGLES THOUGHTS ::
COMMANDERS AT EAGLES
For the first time in years, the Eagles are a bit of a mystery box, with Sean Mannion taking over as offensive coordinator.
We talked throughout the season last year about how the hate on Kevin Patullo was misguided, and that the noise coming out of the Eagles’ building was that each new offensive coordinator of the team was hamstrung by the offense that Jalen Hurts was willing to run, and by the empowerment that Howie Roseman and Jeffrey Lurie had given him to make that call. The hitches, slants, and go routes, nothing over the middle, predictable, vanilla passing attack of the past has finally run its course.
The Eagles have shipped off A.J. Brown — Hurts’ security blanket — and brought in a coordinator who himself has been empowered to bring in more layered route concepts, more snaps under center, more play action. In short, more of what the rest of the league is cycling back to, in order to combat the defenses that have been built to stop what offenses had previously been doing.
Will it work? That’s the big question — the big mystery box — and within a few weeks, we’ll likely have our answer.
But, of course, DFS isn’t won by waiting for answers. DFS is often won by boldness and a willingness to be wrong.
Where I stand on the Eagles’ offense: I have no idea.
I could paint a convincing picture of an offense that goes off the rails early in the season, and it’s back to the model of past Eagles years. I can also paint a convincing picture of a hard working quarterback in Jalen Hurts, who is obsessed with the idea of greatness, adapting to what is being forced upon him, and having his best season as a pro.
The offensive line is healthy. Saquon Barkley’s role in the passing game has been talked up throughout the summer. DeVonta Smith could easily ascend to a legit WR1 role. And Dontayvion Wicks, or Makai Lemon, could emerge as a strong WR2, with a few spiked weeks throughout the season in this offense.
I’ve learned over the years that my job as a DFS player is not to think that my edge in a situation like this is in predicting what will happen, but is instead in positioning myself in the place where the money might be made.
And in Week 1, against a weak Washington defense, with the field likely carrying the question marks and opinions that they’ve held while drafting throughout the offseason, we could see three of the highest upside pieces on the slate in Jalen Hurts, DeVonta Smith, and Saquon Barkley going under-owned relative to A) other available pieces in their respective price ranges, and B) their respective ceilings.
In short, I think this offense is worth keeping front and center in our thoughts. That’s where I’m keeping them at the moment.
The Washington side? This one is harder for me to wrap my head around. Similar to the Eagles, we have a new, young, inexperienced offensive coordinator in David Blough. (I remember rooting for him to make the Lions roster out of training camp just a few years ago on Hard Knocks.) And with a healthy Jayden Daniels, alongside Terry McLaurin and Stefon Diggs, this offense has a lot of ceiling this season, if things come together.
The difference between the way I’m viewing the Eagles in Week 1 and the way I’m viewing the Commanders is the defense each team is facing.
The Eagles have one of the best front sevens in football, one of the best secondaries in football, and one of the best defensive coordinators in the history of the game. Vic Fangio’s scheme relies heavily on communication, and we can often attack schemes like this early in the year, when the wrinkles aren’t ironed out. But the Eagles are a professional enough operation, and have enough continuity on defense, that this isn’t a card I’m particularly excited to play in this instance.
Against this defense, I’m not tremendously concerned that fading McLaurin, Diggs, and Jacory Croskey-Merritt across my tighter builds is going to come back to bite me. (Said differently: I’m not particularly concerned that any of these three will post a score I had to have in order to win this weekend.)
The one piece that scares me is Jayden Daniels, because the ceiling is so high, and the sentiment around DFS, for this team in this matchup, is likely to be similar to the sentiment I’m carrying, which means that if Jayden Daniels were to post a big game, he would probably be doing it at lower ownership than we will see him at for most weeks this season.
That said, I try my best to avoid fear-based decision making on my DFS rosters. And even more to the point, if Jayden Daniels does happen to put up an elite quarterback score, there is a pretty good chance that I will gain correlated exposure to that upside through the exposure I expect to have to the Eagles’ main pieces.
It’s early in the week, of course. But as of right now, I expect to lean into Hurts, Saquon, and DeVonta Smith, to some extent, this week. And I may play some Wicks and Goedert along the way, as well.
Wheels up on Week 1. Let’s have some fun.
OLAVE + JUWAN JOHNSON BLOCK ::
SIDE TRAIL :: A BUILDING BLOCK
A side trail, before I hit the Ravens.
I was playing around with a small-field roster that would include both Olave and Juwan Johnson, with the thinking being:
– The Lions have faced the fourth lowest opponent rush play rate (third lowest over expected) across the last two years.
– The Saints will likely be chasing points, against this pass funnel defense, with Jordyn Tyson out and Olave/Juwan sure to be the focal points of the passing attack.
This isn’t a bet on Shough having a big game (though he would work on the roster; this one in particular had Hurts, however — an upside bet), but it is a bet on a relatively high volume of concentrated targets landing on this block of salary, thus elevating a roster’s floor while providing pathways to ceiling (great for contests of, say, 500 or fewer entries). And because Olave and Juwan were the guys I was looking at for this, I started thinking, “I bet these two were near the top of the league last year in combined points per game against combined Week 1 salary.”
Filtering out pairings that don’t make sense, here’s what we have in this category for Week 1:
2.78 :: Christian Watson + Tucker Kraft // $10.4k
2.74 :: Drake London + Kyle Pitts Sr. // $11.2k
2.70 :: Chris Olave + Juwan Johnson // $10.4k
2.67 :: Amon-Ra St. Brown + Sam LaPorta // $11.9k
2.52 :: Marvin Harrison Jr. + Trey McBride // $11.8k
2.52 :: Nico Collins + Dalton Schultz // $10.4k
2.45 :: Garrett Wilson + Mason Taylor // $8.6k
2.42 :: Ja’Marr Chase + Mike Gesicki // $10.9k
2.31 :: DeVonta Smith + Dallas Goedert // $10.7k
2.30 :: Jerry Jeudy + Harold Fannin Jr. // $8.3k
2.28 :: Parker Washington + Brenton Strange // $9.2k
2.28 :: Tre Tucker + Brock Bowers // $10.9k
2.26 :: Khalil Shakir + Dalton Kincaid // $9.4k
2.24 :: DK Metcalf + Pat Freiermuth // $8.8k
2.24 :: Alec Pierce + Tyler Warren // $10.6k
2.21 :: Zay Flowers + Mark Andrews // $10.3k
2.20 :: Ladd McConkey + Oronde Gadsden II // $9.4k
1.99 :: Emeka Egbuka + Cade Otton // $9.9k
1.88 :: Justin Jefferson + T.J. Hockenson // $10.6k
1.80 :: Luther Burden III + Colston Loveland // $10.8k
1.68 :: Calvin Ridley + Gunnar Helm // $7.7k
Olave + Juwan in 2025 ::
16 games
20+ DK points in 12/16
26+ DK points in 9/16
39.7+ DK points in 4/16, with a high of 56.7
These guys also scored 42+ in three of eight with Shough (and to the point earlier: Shough scored 19.0, 20.1, and 24.9 in these games).
Here’s a list of individual WR1s who hit 3.8x or better their Week 1 salary at a higher rate than Olave + Juwan last year ::
—
No one on the list. None. Not one. Drake London hit 3.8x or better four times — matching Olave + Juwan. No one else did it more than three times.
Here’s a list of individual running backs who hit 3.8x or better their Week 1 salary at a higher rate than Olave + Juwan last year ::
Bijan Robinson (7)
Jonathan Taylor (6)
Gibbs, Cook, and Gainwell had 4 such games. No one else had more than 3.
The Saints should be trailing, against a pass funnel defense.
That’s a building block.
TUESDAY, SEP 8 ::
LAMAR + PASS CATCHERS THOUGHTS ::
HERE’S WHERE THINGS GET TRICKY WITH LAMAR: WHO DO YOU PAIR HIM WITH?
We should start with this: I think last year was a fluke. Lamar didn’t look like Lamar or perform like Lamar in 2025. But very early in the season we were echoing whispers around Lamar’s health, and treating him with caution. This year he enters the season healthy. And while he enters in a new offense, it’s an offense we have every reason to be optimistic about.
Whenever I put Lamar on a practice build for Week 1, I like the way it looks. When I add Zay Flowers to that practice build, I start to get uncomfortable.
This is also something we explored last year. But to dive into the numbers again:
Lamar and Zay Flowers rank 26th out of 26 QB + WR1 pairings across the last two years in correlation (-0.058, against a league median of +0.303), with Flowers averaging 14.8 DraftKings points per game across the 29 games these two have played together, but averaging 11.6 DraftKings points per game in Lamar’s top third of games.
Every other WR1 in the league is flat or positive in his QB’s top games.
Part of the issue? Taking wideouts in his price range ($5.8k to $6.9k) across all 16 games in Week 1, Zay ranks 13th out of 19 in targets per game, and 19th out of 19 in red zone targets. Zay has ceiling because he can hit for big plays on the targets he receives. But Lamar’s spiked games are often heavily dependent on touchdown production, and that’s the place where Zay falls off the board.
So again, who do we pair Lamar with?
This is where things get tricky.
The Ravens, surprisingly, gave Mark Andrews a three-year, $39.3 million extension in December last year, and let Isaiah Likely (and Charlie Kolar) walk this offseason. And in 40% of Lamar’s career games of 27+ DraftKings points, a tight end has been the top skill position scorer.
The thing with Andrews, however, is that he looks like dust at this point in his career. And he carries an outrageously low floor in games where he’s not scoring touchdowns.
In 2024, Andrews finished the season as TE5. But he averaged only 3.2 catches and 39.6 yards per game, and lifted his production on the back of 11 touchdowns. In 2025, he averaged 2.8 catches and 24.8 yards per game, but scored only six touchdowns and finished TE17.
Maybe in Week 1 we catch the height of health for Andrews. And we can certainly point to a potential boost in usage, when the Ravens’ wide receivers will be facing one of the top cornerback duos in the NFL. But there’s still a good chance that if Andrews fails to score touchdowns, he’s hurting your roster, even at his depressed price tag.
But then the question becomes: if not Zay, and if not Andrews, who else?
And this is where things get really scary, in that Rashod Bateman has hit with Lamar multiple times (even Tylan Wallace has hit with Lamar). But putting Bateman onto a roster in small-field play just feels like a wildly unnecessary risk.
So what then? Ja’Kobi Lane at $3.1k, and hope the rookie training camp sensation pulls out a touchdown or two in his first career game?
I absolutely love this play in large-field contests, as Lane’s game is contested catches, or basically exactly what the Ravens need opposite Zay Flowers in the red zone. But I will be playing primarily small-field contests in Week 1 — and that’s where most of my money will be — which leaves me wondering what I’m going to do if I pull the trigger on Lamar.
The play that feels most comfortable, when you look at it on a roster, is Zay Flowers. But we have a pretty good sample size that tells us that’s our lowest-EV path. It can hit, of course. But the math currently doesn’t appear to be in our favor. And you would essentially be betting on a completely new role in this new offense. (Or you would be hoping for variance to break strongly in your favor.)
Lane is the dot-connect play. But that may be an unnecessary level of risk in a small-field contest.
I’ve taken the swing on Bateman in small-field contests before, and I can promise you that never feels good.
And then, of course, we have Andrews, who has basically been touchdown or bust. Which means that if we get the elite game from Lamar, there is a pretty good chance that Andrews, with his touchdown prowess, is rising with that tide. But if Lamar puts up a solid game (the type of game that’s not directly helping you win, but is also not preventing you from winning), then Andrews could ultimately be one of the factors that drags this roster down.
So how do we play Lamar? I’m not quite sure. I’m not settled on my own answer yet. But those are the thoughts I’m working with.
BEARS-PANTHERS THOUGHTS ::
BEARS AT PANTHERS
In 2024, the Panthers were the defense we attacked the most in DFS. They ranked dead last in EPA per play allowed, yards per play allowed, success rate allowed, points allowed per drive, and third down conversions allowed, while ranking 30th in sacks.
In the first four of those categories, they moved to the middle of the pack last year. But they still ranked 32nd in third down conversion rate allowed, and 28th in sacks.
We should obviously hold in mind the fact that teams improve in the offseason, and that’s exactly what the Panthers tried to do in adding Jaelan Phillips and Devin Lloyd. But the loss of Nic Scourton is going to hurt their pass rush, and this remains a team that has struggled on third downs, taking on a coach in Ben Johnson whose entire philosophy is about staying ahead of the chains and keeping his offense in advantageous situations.
The Panthers ranked third in the NFL last year in EPA per attempt allowed on passes 20 yards or further downfield — lining up with Ejiro Evero’s philosophy of preventing big plays and forcing opponents to march the field.
Between the Panthers’ offensive approach and their tendency to force opponents to march the field, Panthers’ games in 2025 featured the second-fewest total drives per game in the league, at 18.29, which tightens up the scoring ceiling in Panthers game environments.
But if we want to bet on the Bears taking another step forward — which is essentially a bet on Caleb Williams improving in the basics (hitting the layup throws that most NFL quarterbacks can hit) — then this is a spot where we would expect them to start their season on the right foot.
So then the question becomes: which of the Bears’ weapons do we lean on?
Each of Rome Odunze, Luther Burden, and Colston Loveland is priced within $200 of each other. And each of Luther Burden, Colston Loveland, and D’Andre Swift was being drafted in the fourth round of best ball drafts at the end of the summer, with Odunze going a round or two behind them.
All of that is another way of saying: people will generally have a hard time separating one from the other, until production more clearly establishes itself in the early going this season.
We could, of course, take stands ourselves. But as you know, my approach is typically to handle the math as well as I can, and to allow that to dictate my understanding of the most +EV paths available.
Taking the math of this particular matchup, then — and removing running back from the equation for now — my order of interest for the Bears’ three main pass catchers goes Colston Loveland, then Luther Burden, then Rome Odunze.
In 2025, Loveland saw 63% of his targets between one and nine yards, and another 22% between 10 and 19 yards — areas of the field where the Panthers ranked 30th and 29th, respectively, in EPA allowed per attempt.
The Panthers also ranked dead last in EPA allowed per target to tight ends, and 31st in yards per target to the position.
Add the fact that Loveland is a featured piece on third downs for the Bears, and the fact that spiked scores from tight ends can separate your DFS roster more than spiked scores from other positions, and Loveland, on paper, is head and shoulders above his teammates.
But of course, games aren’t played on paper. And after all the training camp hype, Burden, at the very least, also draws my attention.
The Panthers are a disciplined defense that tackles well (12th in the NFL in EPA allowed per attempt on passes behind the line of scrimmage, where 25% of Burden’s targets came last year), and Burden’s big play ability, of course, doesn’t mesh as well with this defense as it will with some others. But Burden did see 63% of his targets in the short and intermediate areas; and DJ Moore, whose role Burden is largely soaking up, saw 26% of his targets 20 or more yards downfield, leaving room for him to hit for a big game this week.
downfield, leaving room for him to hit for a big game this week.
It’s Monday as I type this, and I still haven’t looked at ownership projections. But I have to imagine that the offseason hype around Burden, paired with the somewhat high implied team total on the Bears — not to mention the low price tag Burden carries — will lead to him landing somewhere in the 10% to 20% ownership range, and I’m pegging his chances of a difference-making score a bit lower than that. But he’s still a sharp play in my mind; and while I may not have him on my tighter builds, he’s a guy I would keep in consideration if building more than 10 to 15 rosters.
Finally, we have Odunze, who saw 26% of his targets 20 or more yards downfield last year, taking on a defense that faces these targets at a rate below the league average, and that performs well against these targets when they show up.
That said, Odunze disappeared for much of last year, in what was probably an injury hampered season. And the hype around Luther Burden this offseason has rendered Odunze somewhat invisible to fantasy players.
While 63% of Burden’s targets came in the short and intermediate areas last year, 71% of Odunze’s targets came in the short and intermediate areas, and I could see his ownership being half (or even a third) of what Luther Burden will carry. If that’s the case, the math makes Odunze as strong of a play as Burden — though I’ll note that I would feel more comfortable clicking on Burden’s name than I would on Odunze’s (which, I guess, is pretty much the point of what I’m getting at here)
Thoughts on Caleb? Not many. I prefer him in a game where the opponent is pushing the aggressiveness of the environment forward. But he’s also a young, ultra talented player, paired with one of the best offensive minds in the NFL. Put all of that together, and Caleb could easily be priced 700 or 800 higher in DFS a month from now than where he’s priced now. The pieces are in place for Caleb to be a steal at this price. I don’t think I’m going there myself on tighter builds this week, but I do think it’s a perfectly sharp direction to take things.
I’ve mixed D’Andre Swift into a number of my practice builds so far, simply as a way to get inexpensive exposure to an offense capable of scoring a lot of points.
Taking a step back real quickly, and talking broader DFS thought processes and roster construction strategies: two of the clearest ways we can turn the math in our favor are by A) betting on concentrated roles, and B) betting on offenses likely to score more touchdowns than most other teams on the slate.
So far, then, I have found the Chargers, Eagles, Lions, Bears, and Bengals, along with the concentrated pieces on the Falcons, Saints, and Jets (more on these guys in a bit) showing up regularly on my early practice builds.
Said differently: if I’m reaching for a player to fill an RB2 spot, or to make salary work, or to close out an otherwise complete roster, I’m reaching into this bucket of players most often — targeting offenses I expect to score touchdowns, or offenses where the roles are bankable and secure.
The Panthers’ side of this game is very interesting in tournaments as a bet on the Bears scoring efficiently and forcing the Panthers to get more aggressive than they typically like to get, against what should be an attackable Bears defense. One mistake people can make in assessing cheap quarterbacks, however, is assessing the price based on the quarterback himself, as opposed to the stack you’re betting on with that quarterback.
What I mean is, Bryce Young + Tetairoa McMillan costs $11.3k, and the two of them combined for 27.7 points per game last year. Lamar Jackson + Mark Andrews combined for 24.8 points per game last year, in what was a deeply down year for Lamar, and cost $10.7k combined. Jalen Hurts and Dallas Goedert combined for 32.1 points per game last year, with A.J. Brown now removed from the offense, thus boosting Goedert’s role, and also cost $10.7k.
Where do I have more confidence? Jalen Hurts + Dallas Goedert, or Bryce Young + Tetairoa McMillan?
Even Herbert + McConkey ($12.0k) costs only $700 more than Bryce and TMac, and combined for 31.3 points per game last year — with McConkey playing hurt, with no offensive line, and without Mike McDaniel.
A bet on Bryce Young, then, to me, is not a bet on him as a cheap quarterback, but is instead a bet on his ability, albeit rare, to post a truly elite raw score (see Week 11 last year, when he put up 32.8 DraftKings points at $4,800).
And if I’m betting on that — understanding the Panthers as we do — I am effectively betting on the Bears driving this game forward. Which means that for me, a Bryce Young roster absolutely has to include at least one piece from the Bears.
Coker and TMac are fine plays in isolation (as is Darren Waller, if you want to really take a swing). And it’s not crazy to think that Jonathon Brooks or Chuba Hubbard come out of this game having contributed a nice score as well. I’m not currently leaning in that direction on tighter builds, but I’m not in a place where I want to argue against that, either.
EARLY WEEK PLAYER POOL STATUS ::
MY EARLY-WEEK POOL
This is what I’ve been working with in my practice builds at this point in the week (Tue) ::
Near-every roster:
– one of Hurts / Saquon
– one of Bijan / Drake London
– one of Juwan Johnson / Olave
QB pool:
– Lamar (unsettled how)
– Hurts
– Herbert
– Shough (5–10% bankroll?)
– Kyler
RB is Bijan, Chase Brown, Saquon, Hampton, Swift.
WR core is Olave, London, Jefferson, McConkey, DeVonta Smith.
TE focus is Loveland, Goedert, Andrews-on-Lamar, Juwan, possibly Mason Taylor.
Interesting, not there:
– Malik Willis
– Bryce Young (Bears-stacked only)
– Geno (might still do it)
– Jonathan Taylor
– Gibbs (I’m starting to build more w him)
– Montgomery
– Coker
– Adonai Mitchell
– Burden
– Odunze
It’s Tuesday. Things will change. But that’s my range of focus at the moment.
This list is largely :: teams with with the highest implied team totals, plus the most bankably concentrated offenses.
This is primarily for smaller-field play.
For larger-field, this would be the core around which I would be mixing in lower-confidence upside swings.
I’ll also reiterate: it’s Tuesday. This is a snapshot of how I’m building at the moment.
KYLER + JEFFERSON ANGLE ::
ON KYLER AND JEFFERSON
Based on their game total and implied team total, the Vikings have a 24% chance of scoring four or more touchdowns (5+ in 8.3%). Based on pricing and percentages, other QBs (and QB+ WR) pairings are better; but I can’t shake the question of, “What if Kyler and the Vikings do score four or more touchdowns this week?” These are the questions that often decide DFS slates for us.
Not that any NFL slate would ever work like this, but if every team on the slate except the Vikings scored exactly their team total, and the Vikings scored 31, Kyler would project as the top point-per-dollar QB on the slate, and Jefferson would rank third at wideout. (If you make it a competitive game, saying the Packers score 27, then JJ jumps to the top.) This particular Cascading Projections input doesn’t tell us anything we couldn’t already guess (basically: giving the Vikings the highest implied team total on the slate makes Kyler and JJ the most valuable pieces on the slate). But it’s easy to see the slate playing out in such a way that the Vikings matter. I expect Kyler and JJ to have a really good season together.
DST THOUGHTS ::
A PEEK AT DST
In my mind, elite DFS games at DST instruct us to worry more about the QB under center than about the defense itself. Bad defenses are bad; but middling defenses can score big against bad QBs.
But last year, the top 30 DST games shook out like this:
– 20 of 30 at home
– 19 of 30 scored a DST TD (no surprise there)
– avg 4.1 sacks + 3.2 takeaways
– 25 of 30 held the opponent under 14
– Opposing QBs included: Burrow twice, Herbert, Goff, Daniels, Stroud, Maye, Rodgers, Mayfield, Lawrence
Teams with two or more games in the top 30 (DVOA rank in parentheses):
3 Seahawks (1)
3 Vikings (3)
2 Texans (2)
2 Rams (4)
2 Browns (8)
2 Steelers (11)
2 Saints (13)
2 Patriots (23)
“Top defenses at home” holds up better than “middling defenses vs bad QBs.”
Well worth noting — especially when teams are at their healthiest in Week 1, and we have fewer bad QBs to target.
WEDNESDAY, SEP 9 ::
CASCADING PROJECTIONS BREAKDOWN ::
cascading projections is not a simulation engine.
the main purpose of cascading projections is to condition projections to the correct, correlated moves based on the user’s inputs (a far more powerful purpose than just looking at percentile outputs). but looking at percentile outputs in cascading projections…
skill position players who hit 30+ 30% of the time (p70):
bijan
gibbs
ja’marr
skill position players who hit 30+ 20% of the time (p80):
st. brown
skill position players who hit 30+ 15% of the time (p85):
jonathan taylor
justin jefferson
drake london
lowering the bar slightly, skill position players who hit 27+ 15% of the time:
de’von achane
derrick henry
breece hall
chase brown
nico collins
chris olave
zay flowers
tee higgins
tetairoa mcmillan
brock bowers
WEEK 1 WHAT-IF TEAM THOUGHTS ::
Some “What if?” questions around teams I’ve mostly been ignoring:
*”What if the Titans’ passing attack looks better than expected against an aggressive, likely man-heavy defense?”*
– If this were to happen, there’s a good chance the Jets could keep pace, and stacks of this game would pay off at cheap price tags.
– I’m not working with data here; just speaking to general NFL knowledge. I’d put the chances of this happening around 8%. That’s like saying that once in every ~12 games, at this point in his career, with the weapons he has, Cam Ward would be able to click over into a more impressive version of himself. He went for 23.9 vs Seattle last year, and he went for 18+ in three of his last six full games played. Reports out of Titans camp have been negative; but what if that’s not the reality when they step on the field in Week 1?
*”What if Jacksonville has a big game against Cleveland?”*
– Then I miss out on it. I’m not planning to hit this game on tighter builds.
– Can it play in large-field play? Absolutely. But I would put the chances of this one working out at “roughtly the same as the interest the field will have,” so I wouldn’t personally be chasing here if playing MME. It’s not wrong to chase; it’s just not where I’m going, personally.
– On the Browns’ side, there are too many question marks in the way of wideout distribution, and too little chance of “had to have it” ceiling down most pathways, for me to consider this passing attack a worthwhile chase. Harold Fannin is the one guy who I was messing with in early practice builds, and I don’t have any arguments there.
*”What if C.J. Stroud pops off?”*
– I’m not nervous about missing out on had-to-have-it production from the Bills. They aren’t priced down for the matchup, so the threshold they have to exceed is high enough that “if I miss it, I miss it.” I’m fine with that.
– Stroud could genuinely sneak a 26-point game here, however, and bring Nico Collins with him. I actually really like this one in large-field play (I could fire 3% or 4% of MME rosters at a setup like this). But given my expectations for this game, I’ll stay off it on tighter builds.
*”What if the Ravens aren’t good on defense (just yet)?”*
– Minter is a good defensive coordinator. That’s largely inarguable. He’s a difference-maker on the sidelines. But so is Brandon Staley, and his defenses when he was head coach with the Chargers were not up to his standard. Being a head coach is a different job, so there’s a chance the Ravens aren’t truly “a Jesse Minter defense,” or that it takes them a few games to get their communication and assignments down. If that’s the case, Shane Steichen can put them in a bit of a blender, and Colts pieces could pop.
– In large-field play, I like this one more than the idea of the Jags, as the Colts can be played inside a game environment that could respond to them — creating a higher ceiling and more players who benefit. This is a sharp one in large-field play. Probably still not pushing for my tighter builds, but I like the idea of it.
*”What if Aaron Rodgers looks really good with Mike McCarthy?”*
– He might. But he’s thrown for 300+ yards once in the last four years. He gets the ball out quick and aims to dice up a defense on short-area throws. If he hits for a tourney-winner, I’ll be okay missing it.
– The two spots that have brought me back a few times:
– What if the run game has a day? I can see that happening, and I would assume that’s Rico Dowdle, but it’s not for the faint of heart. I’d mark it as “+EV, but not a necessary risk on tighter builds.” It’s probably not a necessary risk in large-field play either, but I wouldn’t argue too hard against it, as we have seen Dowdle go for 30+ multiple times, which would be genuinely difference-making at his price tag.
– And what if Michael Pittman Jr. is Rodgers’ new Lazard/Davante/Jordy? All different calibers of players, of course; but Pittman has similar skill sets to those guys, and is actually a really good fit for Rodgers. What if Pittman has some games this year in which he catches 10 passes and scores a touchdown? The Falcons won’t have a pass rush. Rodgers knows Ulbrich, and will know how to attack him. Pittman is genuinely interesting.
*”What if Miami and Las Vegas shoot out?”*
– Sharp DFS players often avoid bad teams, and it’s typically people “looking to be contrarian” but not understanding the pathways we can follow to be “contrarian while rostering genuinely strong plays” that end up on things like Dolphins vs Raiders. But that’s in a normal week, deeper into the season. Right now, we don’t know what these teams truly are; we just know what everyone expects them to be. What if one or both of these teams surprises this year? They don’t have to be good, even — just better than the betting public expects. These are the cheapest stacks out there, and given that it’s Week 1, it’s genuinely viable to think about going here.
– Large-field only for me, at the moment (though Malik Willis, De’Von Achane, and Raiders pieces can obviously have cases made for them on tighter builds).
*”What if Green Bay pops vs Minnesota?”*
– Completely realistic. If it happens, I’ll get exposure through the Vikings’ passing attack.
– I would rather take swings on Green Bay pass catchers than backfield, personally. Christian Watson and Tucker Kraft would be the plays for me.
*”What if Washington does really well vs the Eagles?”*
– “Really well” toward a tourney-winner? I could see it for Jayden, but I don’t think it’s worth the risk. I have a hard time seeing it for others. I’ll let them prove me wrong if they can.
CASCADING PROJECTIONS LAUNCH ::
cascading projections are live(!) – https://oneweekseason.com/cascading-projections/
from my X post around Cascading Projections:
“New game scores, who dis?”
Cascading projections are live(!).
First of its kind.
Input game scores, and redraw projections.
Pin a DFS score to one player in a game (“in a sample size of one, player X scores Y”), and redraw projections.
Assert a percentile, and redraw projections.
Hierarchy:
Pin > Game Score > Percentile
I.e., pin Burrow to 36, and projections are redrawn based on this. Set game score to 31-34, and projections are redrawn for “Burrow at 36 in a 31-34 game.” Set Ja’Marr Chase at p85, and you get 85th percentile for a 31-34 game in which Burrow scores 36.
Screenshots:
1) Game scores; nothing else added.
2) Bucs/Bengals redrawn with Burrow at 36, a game score of 31-34, Ja’Marr at p85 (85th percentile for the upstream inputs), Baker at p70 (70th percentile for the upstream inputs).
Download your redrawn projections and upload directly to the Bink Machine. (Test this with tonight’s game!)
Full guide coming today or tomorrow.
Don’t get addicted.
Let’s go!
WEEK 1 SCHEDULE + UPDATES ::
journal entries are likely (largely) bookmarked until friday,
kickoff party on discord tonight at 8 pm et
working on player grid tomorrow(!) (will be published late afternoon pt)
pods & more journal entries fri
will have winner circle pod up on saturday morning
WEEK 1 TOTALS BETTING ANGLE ::
in the kickoff party, <@1166374818283798640> mentioned week 1 games going under with teams not playing starters in preseason.
i looked it up. 65.6% under in week 1 the last two years.
+ev, it would seem
games in the last 10 years that had a total of 44.5-45.5 and 7 or fewer total points in the first 26 minutes finished with more than 32 total points 63% of the time. pats/seahawks is 31.5 at last check.
