The +EV Primer
By MJohnson86 :: 2021WHY WE HAVE THIS COURSE
by JM
From Lesson 1:
- “Expected Value (EV) is something that is constantly brought up in the fantasy and DFS worlds. It is a concept that is very relevant to DFS, but also one that is very misunderstood by many — including a lot of the people who use it to give advice.”
Also From Lesson 1 (HINT: Lesson 1 is FREE):
- “This course will dive into how you can approach DFS in optimal ways that will actually improve your expected returns and are likely to be realized over short and long term time horizons.”
So often…
DFS players mask bad decisions by claiming “Variance”…
- …and this prevents them from getting better
- A deeper understanding of WHAT EXPECTED VALUE IS // HOW TO ASSESS EXPECTED VALUE // AND HOW TO FIND (and take advantage of) EXPECTED VALUE can solve this problem
Just as often…
DFS players ditch Good Process, not knowing if it’s good or not…
- …and this blocks them from big wins that were waiting in their future!
- We talk about it all the time on OWS ::You aren’t going to win a GPP every weekend
- Once you grasp this, however, it can be easy to simply say, “Oh well, it’s variance, my time is coming,” even though you might be working with a process/approach through which you have a negative expected value over time
- And once you grasp this (which — as an OWS member — you likely have: recognizing that a good process is required in order for variance to work in your favor over time), it can become easy to keep changing your process/approach, without any real comfort that you’ve found something you should settle down with
This course is a game-changer for those reasons
- Truly, I am so excited for you to get your hands on this course, as it’s a unique, highly valuable deep-dive into a misunderstood, profit-altering topic
- Similar to Hilow’s Game Theory GPP course in 2020, this course taps deeply into what OWS is all about: finding edges the field is overlooking, and exploiting these edges in such a way that profit becomes bankable over the long run
WHAT THIS COURSE INCLUDES
Click for full outline(!)
Lesson 1 ::
Understanding And Finding EV
What is EV? A lot of people in DFS think they know the answer…and don’t realize that they’re looking at things all wrong! Before we can learn to take advantage of the edges available to us, we have to first understand exactly what those edges are.
Lesson 2 ::
Player Pool :: Think Negative
From this lesson ::
- “Improving your Expected Value is about understanding and weighing BOTH risks and rewards.”
Also from this lesson ::
- “If you start your process by finding the players you “like” the most early in the week, you will often get anchored to them and find reasons to ignore warning signs. Instead, you should think negatively from the start and find the reasons you would want to avoid each player. From there, you can evaluate the player’s set-up and profile for the week and see if it is enough to “sell” you on them — despite the negatives.”
Lesson 3 ::
Going All-In
Mike dives into the concepts behind going all-in on a player, across all your rosters :: when it’s advisable to do this // why it’s sometimes advisable to do this // and how doing this properly/successfully can significantly increase your chances of a first-place finish.
Lesson 4 ::
Stop Being Punctual
From this lesson ::
- “Most DFS players focus on being contrarian or unique by finding crazy takes or strategies. In reality, many times it can be as simple as arriving at the same place as everyone else — just at a different time.”
When picking players, you have to be willing to “be wrong on the timing.” This willingness can go a long way toward improving your EV over time :: being willing to roster a player before they’ve shown the field what they can do // or being willing to roster a player after they’ve seemingly shown the field they cannot be trusted.
Lesson 5 ::
Roster Blocks And Time Horizons
From this lesson ::
- “This is perhaps the most important lesson in this course, and has been something that has helped my personal DFS performance immensely.”
Mike dives into a couple of the strategies/approaches he uses in order to ensure his EV is maximized, from a standpoint of both his “play” and his “mindset/approach,” while helping you grasp a key area of bankroll management and roster construction in which so many players fall short.
Lesson 6 ::
Scheduling Cupcakes
DFS is all about “finding and hammering edges.” In this lesson, Mike takes a look at what it means to “schedule cupcakes” — creating for yourself some of the biggest boosts to your expected value over time.
Lesson 7 ::
Staying Plugged In
How can you continue to improve your expected value and your long-term ROI throughout the entire year? Mike dives into three approaches that have helped him immensely.
Lesson 8 ::
Built With Your Bare Hands
Put your stamp on the slate! Understand what you are building, and why you are building it in order to maximize your expected value throughout your DFS career.
WHO THIS COURSE IS FOR
- If you are a highly-profitable or consistently-profitable DFS player already, you likely have a good feel for most of the elements in this course already (if you’re not sure if it’s a good fit for you, the first two lessons are free!).
- If you are a casual DFS player, you also won’t find much in this course that you will truly be able to apply to your play.
- If, however, you are still searching for those final pieces to the puzzle — for the little things that can make the difference between “almost” and “ah ha!” — this course should be right up your alley.
- This course dives not only into the deeper concepts behind “expected value” (helping you understand what it really is, and how you can really apply it to your own play), but also dives into specific angles you can take advantage of to immediately increase your EV. The theoretical elements in this course will give you the foundation required to continue discovering/understanding new aspects along this journey, and the practical elements in this course will give you edges you can apply (and start making money off of) right away!
But Don’t Take Our Word For it >>>>
THE FIRST TWO LESSONS Are Free!
Register New Account
Customer Reviews On This Course
Another excellent course from MJohnson86! This ties in perfectly with his other course Building a sharper player pool: Checking the boxes!
Definitely given me more to think about regarding my own play, to try maximize the small edges that can have a big impact over a longer time period. And thanks for the tip regarding The Special, definitely going to check that out once its available!
MJohnson86 is a great addition to the team for 2021, I cant wait to read more from him!
Yo MJohnson86! Welcome to the Fam, FAM! Or rather thanks for introducing yourself to us (seems like you been a member, but are now a contributor).
Anyways, you have broken down what has been discussed since OWS’s inception into easily digestable and actionable steps. I have tried to implement the strategies myself, but you’ve laid it out in such a way that is highly replicable for our process. Things that I have been trying to do for years are clicking in my brain! You’ve already done it…thanks for sharing!
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