Everything I Know About Roster Construction

Lesson 1 :: DFS Theory (Or: The Truth About DFS)

• There are people who know nothing about the NFL, and who consistently make more money in DFS than all the “fantasy experts” who know the NFL inside and out
• In this lesson, we’ll explore what those people know that the “fantasy experts” don’t…
• …and more importantly, we’ll explore the edge available to those with superior NFL knowledge

Reverse-Rankings ::

These are reverse rankings of people who make the most money in NFL DFS

Least $ ::

People who “know the NFL really well”

Middle $ ::

People who know DFS really well, and know nothing about the NFL

Most $ ::

People who know DFS really well…and know the NFL really well

In this lesson, we start our journey toward that “Most $” category!

---

Lesson 2 :: One-Week Mindset

• What does your week look like?
• Position yourself to know ::
  • Players & Coaches
  • Matchups on the week’s slate
  • How you think games will play out
  • How you can build ROSTERS to account for this
  • How you can account for what others will do
• Learn how to “happen to your week,” instead of allowing your week to happen to you

---

Lesson 3 :: Play For First Place

• DFS tourneys are notorious for having top-heavy payout structures, which means that if you aren’t getting first-place finishes, you’re falling behind
• “Aim small, miss small”
  • First-place finishes don’t happen by accident!
• Know what it takes to get to first place…
• …and know what you’re doing to get there

---

Lesson 4 :: What We Talk About When We Talk About Upside

• As we build rosters, we want to give ourselves fewer things that need to go right
• If you’re trying to build the perfect roster, and you need everyone on your roster to perform at their absolute ceiling just to have a shot at first place, you’ll never get to first place!
• We don’t want players with high floors and low ceilings…
  • Optimally, we want players with high floors AND high ceilings
  • And when we can’t get that, we sacrifice floor to build in ceiling(!)
• What does upside look like?
  • Let’s “demystify DFS” in order to maximize our chances of a first-place finish

---

Lesson 5 :: Player Pricing I

• The basics of Player Pricing, and how it impacts roster construction, including ::
  • Perceptions of players based on price
  • When/where pricing actually matters

---

Lesson 6 :: Player Pricing II

• A deeper exploration of how player pricing works at…
  • Quarterback
  • Running back
• …and how we can take advantage of this knowledge

---

Lesson 7 :: Player Pricing III

• A deeper exploration of how player pricing works at…
  • Wide receiver
  • Tight End
  • DST
• …and how we can take advantage of this knowledge

---

Lesson 8 :: Rostering Quarterbacks

• A deep dive into the quarterback position in DFS, with a specific focus on ::
  • Floor
  • Ceiling

---

Lesson 9 :: Rostering Running Backs

• A deep dive into the running back position in DFS, with a specific focus on ::
  • Floor
  • Ceiling

---

Lesson 10 :: Rostering Wide Receivers

• A deep dive into the wide receiver position in DFS, with a specific focus on ::
  • Floor
  • Ceiling

---

Lesson 11 :: Rostering Tight Ends // DST

• A deep dive into the tight end position in DFS, with a specific focus on ::
  • Floor
  • Ceiling

• A deep dive into the DST position in DFS, with a specific focus on ::
  • Floor
  • Ceiling

---

Lesson 12 :: Know Your Tourney

• Your approach to player selection and roster construction should vary depending on the type of tourney you are playing
• We’ll take a deeper look at the elements that should shift in your approach based on ::
  • Single-Entry vs Multi-Entry
  • Small-Field vs Large-Field

---

Lesson 13 :: Know What Game You’re Playing I

• DFS is NOT a game of picking players…
  • This means that DFS is NOT a game of “doing a better job than your opponents at picking players”

DFS is not a game of “picking players”!

• DFS is, instead, a game of putting players onto better-built rosters than the rosters your opponents are building

---

Lesson 14 :: Know What Game You’re Playing II

(Perhaps the most important lesson in this course)

• DFS is :: A Creative Endeavor
• DFS isn’t…
  • DFS isn’t about “playing with what you know,” but is instead about playing with what you don’t know

---

Lesson 15 :: Know Your Teams // Players

• We take a deep look at what you can do EACH WEEK to ensure you know as much as you can know about teams and players
  • We want to always know what we’re rostering, and know why we’re rostering what we’re rostering

---

Lesson 16 :: Know Your Coaches

• Every NFL team makes hundreds of decisions throughout the course of a single game
• These decisions are made by human beings (like you and me!), who have unique personalities (like you and me!) and individualized ideas about the best way to A) win a game, and B) maneuver a season/schedule
• These decision-makers are funnels through which the complexion of a game is created
• By knowing your coaches, you can begin to know how a team will try to win a given game
• By knowing your coaches, you can also know what a team is likely to do when they fall behind on the scoreboard, or when they grab a big lead
• By knowing your coaches, and combining this with what you know about DFS theory (and the ins and outs of roster construction), you can gain a significant edge over those who are betting on DFS theory alone

---

Lesson 17 :: Eliminate Guesswork…

• In order to WIN a tournament in DFS, you likely need ::
  • Multiple players who put together what we like to call a “had to have it” score
• In order for a player to put together a “had to have it” score, that player likely needs one, or both, of the following ::
  • A significant spike in volume
  • A multi-touchdown effort
    • (For lower-priced players, a single long touchdown can sometimes be enough to help you toward a first-place finish)
• It’s easier to win a tourney with one or two duds and four or five guys who post a “had to have it” score than it is to win a tourney through a roster in which all nine slots come together *just right*
• Armed with this knowledge, we can begin to eliminate guesswork…

We don’t want players who “posted a big game recently.”

If they did, great. But that doesn’t help us.

what we need to do is ::

Hunt For Big Games BEFORE They Happen!

---

Lesson 18 :: …But Embrace Uncertainty

• Feeling 100% confident in your roster?
• Feel like there’s no way it can miss?
• Feel like every player is guaranteed to perform?
• Hmmm…

If you’ve played DFS for any length of time, you know that these types of rosters often turn out to be your most disappointing…

• Feel like you’re taking a leap off a cliff in a couple spots on your roster and hoping there’s water beneath you?

GOOD!

• Oftentimes, embracing a bit of uncertainty is exactly what you need in order to climb out of the “very good” rosters and into the first-place finishes

---

Lesson 19 :: Putting It All Together

• DFS is not a game of breaking down the numbers to a point where you can perfectly predict what will happen…
• …it’s a game of understanding the chaos of an NFL game/slate, and putting together a ROSTER that maximizes your long-term ROI by maximizing your chances of a first-place finish