Game Overview ::
By hilow >>
- The Rams are healthy at the right time as they push closer and closer to securing a playoff spot out of the NFC – only DB Tre Tomlinson and OL Joe Noteboom missed practice Thursday.
- The Giants also appear relatively healthy, with no player sitting out of practice Thursday.
- The Tommy (Danny) DeVito experience appears to have (sadly) come to an end, with the team announcing that veteran quarterback Tyrod Taylor will start for the remainder of the season.
- In case you haven’t noticed, Kyren Williams has the league’s second most valuable workload and role when healthy.
- Either Cooper Kupp or Puka Nacua has gone for 100/1 or more in each of the previous four games for the Rams, each doing so twice.
How los angeles Will Try To Win ::
The Rams have had the third lowest expected pass rate over the previous month of play, which speaks volumes to the recent torrid stretch this team has been on of late. The Rams have rattled off five wins in their last six contests, with the one loss in that span being an overtime defeat at the hands of the AFC-leading Ravens. That has led to a modest 56 percent pass rate over the previous month of play, which is actually right in line with their season-long pass play rate. In other words, this is a run-balanced team that also has one of the highest rush rates in the league when playing with a lead. The Rams rank near the middle of the league in points allowed per game and red zone scoring rate allowed, which might be more impressive than their offensive exploits when considering the state of their defensive roster entering the season. Either way, the Rams have scored 32.4 points per game over their previous five contests, all of which coincide with Kyren Williams, Cooper Kupp, and Puka Nacua being fully healthy. In fact, the Rams have averaged the same yards per play value as the 49ers when all three of their primary offensive playmakers have been healthy this year – the 49ers lead the league in that category this season.
As alluded to above, the Rams prefer to attack with their ground game when playing with a lead. Since returning from injury in Week 12, Kyren Williams has played 77 percent or more of the offensive snaps four times and has seen opportunity counts of 22 (first game back from injury on a 61 percent snap rate), 26, 29, 34, and 22 in that span, going over 100 yards on the ground in four of those five games, scoring a touchdown in four of those five games, and seeing four or more targets in four of those five games. That, my friends, is elite. Kyren has a few things going for him in this spot. First off, the Rams are 5.5-point favorites on the road, and as we said previously, the Rams love to run the football when playing with a lead. Secondly, the Giants have allowed a robust 4.7 yards per carry this season, third worst in the league. And finally, the Giants have allowed 14 total touchdowns to the position this season, tied for seventh most in the league. No doubt about it, this is a solid on-paper spot for Kyren Williams this week. Rookie running back Ronnie Rivers rejoined the active roster in Week 16 and immediately reclaimed the change of pace role behind Williams, seeing six carries on 15 offensive snaps in the process.
Arguably more impressive than the concentration of volume on the ground is the concentration of volume through the air. Over their last three games played, Rams tight ends have combined to see 13 total targets, or 4.33 per game. Puke Nacua, Cooper Kupp, and Demarcus Robinson have all worked their way into every-down pass-catching roles, each playing 86 percent or more of the offensive snaps during the most recent three-game stretch. Those three wide receivers have combined for 29 targets, 19 targets, and 29 targets in that span, with at least one of them going over 100 yards through the air with a touchdown in each of those games (Kupp twice and Nacua once). Cooper Kupp also finally appears to be fully healthy. If you’ve watched their games over the previous four weeks, Kupp is back to being the motion man of this offense on every offensive snap, running more yards prior to the snap of the football than any other wide receiver in the league. That should do wonders to get Kupp in the matchup most beneficial to production against the elevated blitz rates of Wink Martindale, increased by the fact that Kupp owns a ridiculous 32 percent target rate against man coverage this season. Both Kupp and Nacua are in a solid spot this week, while Robinson has now scored in four consecutive games for the Rams.
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