Game Overview ::
By Hilow >>
- The Dolphins, who lead the league in points per game at 30.9, take on a Baltimore team ranked fourth in points per game a week after they faced the team ranked second in points per game (Cowboys).
- Dolphins RB Raheem Mostert (knee, ankle) has yet to practice this week (as of Thursday) but the team has said they expect him to play in Week 17.
- Dolphins WR Jaylen Waddle (ankle) has also yet to practice this week but is expected to miss Week 17 with what is being called a high ankle sprain.
- Dolphins rookie RB De’Von Achane (toe) upgraded from ‘DNP’ to limited on Thursday and appears likely to play.
- Dolphins WR Tyreek Hill (ankle) upgraded from ‘DNP’ to limited on Thursday and appears likely to play.
- Ravens rookie WR Zay Flowers (calf) has yet to practice this week and appears in jeopardy of missing Week 17.
How MIAMI Will Try To Win ::
This week’s episode of Hard Knocks with the Dolphins highlighted an interesting dynamic of this team that they largely haven’t previously had – the ability to take over a game with their defense. That isn’t to say they can’t shoot it out with the best of them, because they can (they do lead the league in points per game at 30.9). Head coach Mike McDaniel has also been much more nuanced with his play-calling tendencies this season as compared to last year where we dubbed him “the mad genius,” capable of both generating his own mismatches through his intricate offensive design and exploiting the deficiencies of his opponent. That has led to a much higher rush rate this season when compared to last year, highlighted further by the fact that the Dolphins have had the second-highest rush rate over the previous four weeks of play, behind only the Bills. That simply is a nod to the more nuanced approach from McDaniel this year.
Mostert has seen his snap rate fluctuate wildly with Achane healthy this season. We only have a six-game sample with both backs fully healthy this year, but we’ve seen Mostert handle a borderline workhorse role with Achane out and “slightly less than lead back” role with Achane present. Even so, Mostert is currently tied with Christian McCaffrey for the league lead in touchdowns at 21, having broken the Dolphins’ franchise record for touchdowns in a season in Week 15 against the Jets. He has an insane six games with multiple touchdowns this season and has scored in all but three games. The ankle and knee injuries he is currently dealing with are a legitimate concern even if the team says he’s expected to play this week, particularly considering the team held him to just 19 offensive snaps and only three second-half snaps last week. Furthermore, the team has shown a willingness to get Jeff Wilson involved if required, which further dents the floor of both Mostert and Achane here. The matchup should be considered a semi-run-funnel spot against a Ravens team no longer elite against the run, ceding 4.4 yards per carry (22nd) while holding opponents to the fewest net yards per pass attempt this season (4.6).
We’ve talked about the fact that this offense simply gets more concentrated when one of its primary contributors misses a contest, which appears likely to be the case this week with Waddle highly unlikely to play. Pair that with the injuries in the backfield and Tyreek has a very good chance to lead the slate in targets. The matchup is far from ideal, but Hill is just that dude. He has seen an insane 31 percent target rate against man coverage and an even more insane 36 percent target rate against zone coverage this season, while the Ravens are near league average in man-zone splits this year. And that all came with Waddle in the lineup for most of the season, and he’s now expected to sit out Week 17. Hill needs 359 yards through the air to achieve his lofty preseason goal of 2,000 receiving yards, and it would not surprise me to see him as the mega focal point of the offense considering McDaniel’s demonstrated focus on individual achievements. In other words, McDaniel is also a “player’s coach” that pays attention to milestone achievements. Assuming Waddle misses Week 17, I’d expect Cedrick Wilson to step into the primary perimeter role opposite Hill while Braxton Berrios sees a slight uptick in snaps from the slot.
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