XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT

This season’s tradition of amazing island games continues as Week 17 kicks off with the Jets visiting the Browns. We have a 35-point total game with Cleveland favored by 7.5, with one of the worst offenses in the league on the road against one of the NFL’s very best defenses. The good news is that we can have high confidence in how the field is likely to build for this one. The bad news is that this is likely to be a terrible football game to watch.

Cleveland

On the Browns side, the backfield is primarily a two-way split between Jerome Ford and Kareem Hunt, with Pierre Strong mixing in a little bit. This creates kind of a gross situation. On the one hand, the best way to attack the Jets is on the ground (third in pass defense DVOA but 13th in run defense DVOA) and the Browns are large home favorites, but on the other hand, the Browns have been extremely pass-heavy since Joe Flacco took over at quarterback and we’re dealing with a split backfield. Ford has the lead over Hunt in snaps but his rushing role is wildly inconsistent with just one 20-carry game and a few more of 15+, but he’s seen 53 carries in Cleveland’s last five games. He does tend to see more carries in games that the Browns win handily (15 last week while stomping Houston), so the game script favors some extra workload. He’s also had consistently robust passing game involvement with four targets per game since Nick Chubb went down in Week 2. Hunt’s role has been much smaller, as despite his reputation as a good receiving back he’s been seeing almost no passing game work (just 19 targets in 13 games with the Browns) and generally around 8-10 carries per game but he’s leeched away a ton of Ford’s value by scoring a whopping eight touchdowns. Hunt has established a role as the red zone back, with 30 red zone carries to Ford’s 15, and 11 carries inside the 5-yard line to Ford’s four. So, Ford gets more volume but not really bell cow-type volume, while Hunt gets limited volume but has a ton of touchdown equity. That makes for a tough split. Ford is just $8,400 so it’s feasible that if he gets some decent receiving work, he could potentially pay off his salary without scoring a touchdown, while Hunt almost certainly needs a touchdown in order to be viable. Given the matchup and the likely game script, I’m in on Ford in builds predicated on the Browns winning, while Hunt is more of a tournament “touchdown or bust” dart throw. Strong isn’t seeing enough volume to be anything more than a pure punt play.

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In the passing game, we’ve seen Joe Flacco attempt between 42 to 45 passes in all four of his starts with Cleveland. He’s averaging a quite respectable 7.5 yards per pass attempt (which would tie him with Dak Prescott and Matt Stafford), though that has come in solid passing game matchups whereas this one is a certified nightmare. When Flacco joined Cleveland, the OWS team was trying to determine if Cleveland would just let Flacco be himself, or if they would tailor his role to their run heavy offense. So far, they’ve let Flacco be himself and it’s resulted in a ton of passing volume and some big games for their top receivers. But this matchup is different than the others he’s faced and leans more towards the run, so . . . will they keep letting Flacco chuck it (and keep in mind he has seven interceptions in four games)? Or, will they lean more run heavy given that’s what the matchup seems to favor? The answer is I don’t really know – rational coaching would say to take a more run heavy approach, be conservative, and focus on the weakness of the defense. After all, the Browns are 10-5 and competing for seeding so they can’t just throw things to the wind here. But, the assumption of rational coaching is a dangerous thing. For me, I’m going to just build sets of rosters under both assumptions. 

The Browns will trot out Amari Cooper, Elijah Moore, and Cedric Tillman as their primary wide receivers, with David Bell and Marquise Goodwin playing small backup roles. Amari has seen 42 targets since Flacco took over at quarterback, but is set for a date with Sauce Gardner, one of the NFL’s best cornerbacks. Normally, I don’t put a huge amount of stock into WR/CB matchups, but this is one of the most difficult ones around (especially since the Jets secondary isn’t just about Gardner – they’re elite all around). $11.2k is a lot to spend for a receiver in such a nightmare matchup, but you can make a case for paying up for ceiling and likely lower than normal ownership. Moore has done nothing all season, really. He has four games over 10 DK points, but his season-high is 15.4. That’s . . . not good. Flacco gave him 12 targets in their first game together (of which he caught just four), and then six, three, and four targets. I’m pretty out on Moore outside of a small bit of tourney exposure as a dart throw. I’d rather play Tillman due to price, as while Moore is $6,600, Tillman is just $3k. He’s averaging five targets per game since Flacco took over (vs. Moore’s 6.25), but he’s seemed capable of catching some of them, which is, you know, kind of an important trait for an NFL receiver. He’s on the field almost as much as Amari and Moore and might see some softer coverage if New York really focuses on Amari. The floor is low for any pass catcher in this game, but at his price, I think Tillman is worthy of strong consideration. Bell and Goodwin are just punt options, with Bell’s role likely getting a modest boost if Goodwin’s knee injury keeps him out. 

At tight end, David Njoku has the lead role, and it’s a big one with 70%+ of the snaps in every game this season. He’s another one who has earned Flacco’s trust with 37 targets through four games – that’s a huge workload for a tight end and it’s also come along with four touchdowns. At $7,800, Njoku just isn’t priced for that kind of volume. He can play in the short areas of the field for some easier PPR points but he can also run deep routes as he has multiple catches of 20+ yards with Flacco at QB. He’s my overall favorite pass catcher on the Browns. Harrison Bryant and Jordan Akins will play some backup TE snaps and can be included in MME player pools as punt options.

New York

XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT

We get a Saturday game this week instead of a Monday game, and it has the 11-4 Lions visiting the 10-5 Cowboys for a whopping 52-point total with Dallas favored by 5.5. Should be a fun one between two playoff bound teams loaded up with good offenses. 

Dallas

On the Cowboys side, nobody has run worse than Tony Pollard this season in terms of expected fantasy points (based on volume) vs. actual fantasy points. Some of that is luck as Pollard is second in the league in red zone rushing attempts (and tied for third in attempts inside the 5), but has just four red zone rushing touchdowns (4 TDs on 55 red zone rush attempts, while every other RB with more than 40 attempts in the red zone has at least eight TDs). Some of it is inefficiency. Pollard is averaging just four yards per carry on the season, and that goes way down to just 2.7 yards per carry inside the red zone. The matchup here is tough, as the Lions are fourth in run defense DVOA but just 16th in pass defense DVOA (and even worse against the pass lately), but at just $7,800, it’s hard to ignore Pollard’s talent and volume as a home favorite running back with solid goal line and passing game work. I expect he’ll draw a lot of ownership as a result. I think he’s fine because his price is so cheap, but I’m not especially excited to play him and will probably end up either around or a bit under the field on Pollard depending on where his ownership comes in. Behind Pollard, Rico Dowdle is out, leaving Deuce Vaughn in the RB2 role. This has been a reasonably valuable role, as Dowdle put up 9.6 or more DK points in four games this season, and that’s about what we’d probably need in order for Vaughn to have a strong chance of showing up in a winning lineup at $1k. He fits better in builds predicated on the Cowboys winning the game handily, as that’s when we saw Dowdle’s touches spike the most as Dallas cut back on Pollard’s workload once a game got out of hand. 

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In the passing game, the Cowboys are CeeDee Lamb and then everyone else. Lamb has been absolutely amazing this season: he’s third in the league in targets (151), first in receptions (109), second in receiving yards (1,424), and tied for fourth in touchdowns (9). In a matchup that leans towards the pass, everything lines up for Lamb to have a huge game. He’s priced like it, but he is very clearly the strongest on-paper play in this Showdown. You can fade him and just hope “well, football is weird” (and it is – obviously, Lamb could fail), but there are no metrics that point to failure being in any way likely. Behind Lamb, the Cowboys have Brandin Cooks in a full-time WR2 role, Michael Gallup and Jalen Tolbert splitting the WR3 role, and KaVontae Turpin playing a small gadget-type role. Cooks looks wildly underpriced to me at $5,400. I’m not sure what happened to his salary as it’s tied for the cheapest he’s been all season (and he’s normally at least $6k, more often around $7k). Everyone’s volume behind Lamb is somewhat volatile because of how much Lamb sucks up, but this is just way too cheap of a price for a talented receiver on a good offense in a good matchup. I’m very in on Cooks, but I also expect the field to realize this and he’ll be pretty highly owned. Gallup and Tolbert are splitting work, which has led to mediocrity for both. Tolbert only has one game over 10 DK points while Gallup has four, and Gallup has also out-snapped Tolbert in all but four games (and most of those were very close), so I have a slight lean his way, but both are viable value plays though I would not play them together. Turpin is interesting as a punt option as he sees very little volume (18 targets and 10 carries on the season), but he’s explosive, and he’s schemed looks around the end zone with six of his targets and two of his carries coming inside the 20. He has more red zone targets than Gallup or Tolbert and just two fewer than Cooks, which makes him a “touchdown or bust” dart throw but with a fairly reasonable chance of scoring that touchdown. 

At tight end, Jake Ferguson has an enormous red zone role: his 24 red zone targets lead the tight end position and they are second in the league to all pass catchers (behind just Lamb). Ferg doesn’t tend to get a ton of yardage and has only seen double-digit targets once on the season, so while it’s possible for him to pay off without a touchdown, in all likelihood he’s going to need one, but with so much red zone work and in a good matchup, his likelihood of getting one is strong. Backup TEs Luke Schoonmaker and Peyton Hendershot can be played as MME punt options. This passing offense really revolves around Lamb and Ferguson, then Cooks (and Pollard to an extent) in the next tier, and then everyone else. Finally, remember that while Dallas started off the season being more run-heavy, since their bye week they have had one of the highest pass rates over expectation of any team in the league: they’re throwing a ton, and doing it in almost all game scenarios (this is part of why I’m not super excited to play Pollard despite his cheap price). 

Detroit

Game Overview ::

By Hilow >>

• The Dolphins, who lead the league in points per game at 30.9, take on a Baltimore team ranked fourth in points per game a week after they faced the team ranked second in points per game (Cowboys).
• Dolphins RB Raheem Mostert (knee, ankle) has yet to practice this week (as of Thursday) but the team has said they expect him to play in Week 17.
• Dolphins WR Jaylen Waddle (ankle) has also yet to practice this week but is expected to miss Week 17 with what is being called a high ankle sprain.
• Dolphins rookie RB De’Von Achane (toe) upgraded from ‘DNP’ to limited on Thursday and appears likely to play.
• Dolphins WR Tyreek Hill (ankle) upgraded from ‘DNP’ to limited on Thursday and appears likely to play.
• Ravens rookie WR Zay Flowers (calf) has yet to practice this week and appears in jeopardy of missing Week 17.

How MIAMI Will Try To Win ::

This week’s episode of Hard Knocks with the Dolphins highlighted an interesting dynamic of this team that they largely haven’t previously had – the ability to take over a game with their defense. That isn’t to say they can’t shoot it out with the best of them, because they can (they do lead the league in points per game at 30.9). Head coach Mike McDaniel has also been much more nuanced with his play-calling tendencies this season as compared to last year where we dubbed him “the mad genius,” capable of both generating his own mismatches through his intricate offensive design and exploiting the deficiencies of his opponent. That has led to a much higher rush rate this season when compared to last year, highlighted further by the fact that the Dolphins have had the second-highest rush rate over the previous four weeks of play, behind only the Bills. That simply is a nod to the more nuanced approach from McDaniel this year.

Mostert has seen his snap rate fluctuate wildly with Achane healthy this season. We only have a six-game sample with both backs fully healthy this year, but we’ve seen Mostert handle a borderline workhorse role with Achane out and “slightly less than lead back” role with Achane present. Even so, Mostert is currently tied with Christian McCaffrey for the league lead in touchdowns at 21, having broken the Dolphins’ franchise record for touchdowns in a season in Week 15 against the Jets. He has an insane six games with multiple touchdowns this season and has scored in all but three games. The ankle and knee injuries he is currently dealing with are a legitimate concern even if the team says he’s expected to play this week, particularly considering the team held him to just 19 offensive snaps and only three second-half snaps last week. Furthermore, the team has shown a willingness to get Jeff Wilson involved if required, which further dents the floor of both Mostert and Achane here. The matchup should be considered a semi-run-funnel spot against a Ravens team no longer elite against the run, ceding 4.4 yards per carry (22^nd) while holding opponents to the fewest net yards per pass attempt this season (4.6).

We’ve talked about the fact that this offense simply gets more concentrated when one of its primary contributors misses a contest, which appears likely to be the case this week with Waddle highly unlikely to play. Pair that with the injuries in the backfield and Tyreek has a very good chance to lead the slate in targets. The matchup is far from ideal, but Hill is just that dude. He has seen an insane 31 percent target rate against man coverage and an even more insane 36 percent target rate against zone coverage this season, while the Ravens are near league average in man-zone splits this year. And that all came with Waddle in the lineup for most of the season, and he’s now expected to sit out Week 17. Hill needs 359 yards through the air to achieve his lofty preseason goal of 2,000 receiving yards, and it would not surprise me to see him as the mega focal point of the offense considering McDaniel’s demonstrated focus on individual achievements. In other words, McDaniel is also a “player’s coach” that pays attention to milestone achievements. Assuming Waddle misses Week 17, I’d expect Cedrick Wilson to step into the primary perimeter role opposite Hill while Braxton Berrios sees a slight uptick in snaps from the slot. 

How BALTIMORE Will Try To Win ::

Game Overview ::

By hilow >>

• Patriots RB Ezekiel Elliott missed practice on Thursday with an illness after not appearing on the injury report Wednesday.
• Patriots WR JuJu Smith-Schuster was downgraded from limited to ‘DNP’ Thursday with his ankle injury.
• The Bills enjoy an almost entirely clean bill of health entering Week 17.
• Zeke has been a true workhorse back for the Patriots since Rhamondre Stevenson was lost for the season, handling opportunity counts of 23 (11 targets!), 17 (six targets), and 30 (eight targets!) in the last three games.

How new england Will Try To Win ::

The Patriots have resorted to starting quarterback Bailey Zappe over the last month of play. During that time, they’ve lost 6-0 to the Chargers, beat the Steelers 21-18 after being up 21-3 halfway through the second quarter, lost to the Chiefs 27-17, and beat the Broncos 26-23 on a last-second field goal as time expired after being up 23-7 entering the fourth quarter. That same four-game stretch has seen the team utilize a run-balanced approach on offense, holding a true 62 percent pass rate behind a 63 percent expected pass rate. There is no reason to expect a departure from that game plan, considering the state of this team in present form, leaving them with very little room for upside (both from a team perspective and an individual perspective).

This is now Ezekiel Elliott’s backfield. The veteran back has been a true workhorse over the previous three games since Rhamondre Stevenson was lost for the season, handling snap rates of 91, 87, and 83 percent while seeing opportunity counts of 23 (11 targets!), 17 (six targets), and 30 (eight targets!) during that time. Zeke did miss practice on Thursday with an illness after not being present on the team’s injury report Wednesday, but I’d expect him to play in Week 17. Kevin Harris has stepped into the primary change of pace role, seeing 13 and 17 percent of the offensive snaps in the previous two games. The Bills rush defense remains an enigma, allowing 4.6 yards per carry (27^th) but ceding just 1.14 yards before contact (10^th). The bulk of that damage has come via explosive runs allowed, which Zeke is less capable of at this point in his career (one breakaway run on 157 carries and a low 15.8 percent juke rate).

Tight end Hunter Henry appears set to return from a one-game absence after consecutive limited sessions to start the week. With Henry healthy, this offense utilizes extreme rates of 12-personnel, which is likely also influenced by the multitude of injuries they have suffered at wide receiver this season. JuJu Smith-Schuster and DeVante Parker have been in and out of the lineup all season, Demario Douglas has missed three games, and Kendrick Bourne was lost for the season in Week 8. We should see another game with Parker, Douglas, and Jalen Reagor as the primary wide receivers with increased rates of 12-personnel, assuming Smith-Schuster misses and Henry returns. Either way, the Bills have held opponents to just 5.4 net yards per pass attempt and have ceded 17 total passing scores while generating 13 interceptions. Douglas is theoretically the best on-paper play from this ragtag bunch, but his upside is rather lacking on a 7.9 aDOT.

How buffalo Will Try To Win ::

Game Overview ::

By papy324 >>

• This is an elimination game for the Falcons. They are alive for the NFC South crown or a wild-card spot with a win, and likely mathematically eliminated with a loss. 
• The Bears are the only nine-loss team who hasn’t been mathematically eliminated from the playoffs. They need to win out and get a lot of help. 
• Matt Eberflus is coaching for his job, even if the Bears probably can’t make the playoffs. 
• This game pairs two teams in the bottom five in pass rate over expectation (PROE) and top five in run defense DVOA.
• Arthur Smith continues to feed touches to lesser players, rather than relying on his trio of top-10 picks. 
• DJ Moore rolled his ankle last week but might be the Bears’ only regular pass catcher who plays. Cole Kmet and Darnell Mooney both look legitimately questionable to start the week.

How atlanta Will Try To Win ::

The 7-8 Falcons come into Week 17 with a losing record but are still very much alive in the NFC playoff race. They split their head-to-head matchups with the division-leading Buccaneers and are a half-game behind them in division record. The Bucs play two division games to end the year, so any slip-up would allow the Falcons to catch them for first place. The NFC South looked like nine wins could take the division all season, but the NFC wild-card race has also gotten surprisingly tight. One of the Eagles // Cowboys look locked in as the top wild card, but the No. 6 and No. 7 seeds are less clear. There are six teams (Rams // Seahawks // Vikings // Packers // Falcons // Saints) within a game of each other for the final two playoff spots. Whichever two teams make the dance probably need to win their final two games, which makes this week an elimination game for the Falcons. OWS readers (along with anyone paying attention to fantasy football) know the deal with Atlanta by now. The Falcons want to ride their strong O-line (5^th-ranked per PFF) which benefited from the return of center Drew Dalman and guard Chris Lindstrom last week.  LT Jake Matthews went down in the fourth quarter and is questionable early in the week, but for what it’s worth, Arthur Smith said that Matthews was, “cleared to return.” The Falcons are last in the league in PROE by leaps and bounds, but they do play quickly (fourth in overall pace), which isn’t usually associated with teams that are extremely run heavy. The Bears have been stingy against the run (third in DVOA) and easier to throw against (18^th in DVOA), but that difference is unlikely to tilt the Falcons away from their preferred method of attack. Desmond Ridder is out, and Taylor Heinicke is back in at QB. Who plays QB for the Falcons matters about as much as Smith’s classmate’s mom calling the school principal to report him for giving her son a wedge. Expect the Falcons to come out with their typical run-oriented game plan, even if they’re testing the strength of the Bears defense.

How chicago Will Try To Win ::

Game Overview ::

By hilow>>

• The Titans had 16 players on their Wednesday practice report, but all 16 were listed as limited or full participants.
• The Texans had 14 players on their Wednesday practice report, with eight of those listed as ‘DNP’ including three starting members of their defensive line (Maliek Collins, Will Anderson, and Jonathan Greenard) and two starting members of their offensive line (Laremy Tunsil and Shaq Mason).
• Texans QB C.J. Stroud returned to a limited session Wednesday, indicating he has finally cleared the first step in the league’s concussion protocol (no more headaches). That also places him on track to return from a two game absence, assuming he does not experience any setbacks.
• Texans WRs Nico Collins (calf), Noah Brown (knee), and Robert Woods (not injury related – rest) all practiced in a limited fashion Wednesday and appear likely to play on Sunday.
• The Titans have been mathematically eliminated from the playoffs while the Texans currently sit in the eighth seed in the AFC, tied in record with the Colts, Steelers, and Bengals.

How tennessee Will Try To Win ::

Almost nothing has changed regarding how the Titans will try to win games this season, or over the previous three seasons, for that matter. They’re going to start the game with an extremely run heavy attack and a slow pace, aiming to shorten the game and “win dirty” late. That has been the modus operandi for this team for quite some time now. That said, that game plan has been more susceptible to matchup than in previous seasons due to a stark decline in talent along their offensive line, which has translated to some pretty insane game logs this season. Yes, we’re referring to the 20 touch, 10 yard performance from Derrick Henry the last time these two teams met just two weeks ago. That is also reinforced by looking at the recent pass attempt values from rookie quarterback Will Levis (who appears to be on track to return from a one-game absence due to an ankle injury). Levis has attempted 26, 38, 33, 28, and 17 passes in his last five starts, with all but one of those games decided by seven points or less. But that’s the thing, this defense continues to play at a level that keeps their team in games this season, taking the “bend but don’t break” Bill Belichick-ian methods to new heights while allowing a touchdown on just 38.18 percent of opposing red zone trips (second in the league).

As we’ve talked about for the better part of the previous four seasons, Derrick Henry is going to see touches in close games. That is the driving force behind his volume – not matchup and not game total. If the game is close, the Titans will feed their King. That has not changed in 2023, although the team has experienced massive turnover along their offensive line and so now they are not capable of dictating game environments through brute force. Look at the last meeting between these two teams. The game was close throughout and ended up going into overtime, where Henry finished with 20 touches (16 carries and four receptions) but managed a historically poor 10 yards gained from scrimmage. But the game was close, so Henry saw his touches. The Titans have played nine games since their Week 7 bye, during which time rookie running back Tyjae Spears has out-snapped Henry in five games while playing no fewer than 40 percent of the team’s offensive snaps. In other words, Spears is going to be involved. Spears has just one game of double-digit carries and has scored just one touchdown, but his robust pass game role has led to 15 or more running back opportunities in three of his previous five games played. The pure matchup on the ground is poor against a Texans defense ceding just 3.3 yards per carry (second) behind the fewest yards allowed before contact (0.95).

The Tennessee pass offense has become slightly more concentrated of late but a lot of that has been out of necessity, with Nick Westbrook-Ikhine missing Week 16 and subsequently being placed on injured reserve, and tight ends Trevon Wesco and Josh Whyle missing game recently. That said, Whyle returned from injury in Week 16 but didn’t see an offensive snap, so this could be a case of intent as well. Expect modest pass volume with DeAndre Hopkins, Chris Moore, Treylon Burks, and tight end Chigoziem Okonkwo serving as the primary options through the air in sub-elite snap rate roles. True to form with this offense, only Hopkins has sniffed double-digit looks throughout the season (Okonkwo has one game over six targets, Burks has one game over just four targets, Moore has not seen more than four targets all year), doing so on five separate occasions and returning a GPP-viable score three times. That makes things rather easy here – can Hopkins see double-digit looks, and if not, nobody is GPP-viable.

How houston Will Try To Win ::

Game Overview ::

By mike johnson >>

• If the Colts lose this game, they will need to win in Week 18 and get a lot of help to get in the AFC playoffs.
• The Raiders have clawed their way back into the playoff hunt but need to win both remaining games to have a chance.
• Indianapolis should have their offense back close to full strength as they expect to get Zack Moss and Michael Pittman back in uniform this week.
• Las Vegas should enter this game with a ton of energy and momentum after a 42-point win over the Chargers and a shocking Christmas day upset of the Chiefs.
• The Colts have a worse home record (3-4) than they do on the road (5-3), while last week’s win over the Chiefs was the first time all year the Raiders beat a team that currently has a winning record.

How las vegas Will Try To Win ::

The Raiders approach to winning games is no secret at this point. They have taken on the personality of their head coach and are playing a physical brand of football with their running game and defense leading the charge. Last week, they created two defensive touchdowns in the first half against the Chiefs and did not complete a pass for the last three-quarters of the game. Yes, you read that correctly. Rookie quarterback Aidan O’Connell completed nine passes on the Raiders opening drive and then did not complete another pass the rest of the game. The Raiders were playing without running back Josh Jacobs but just ran the ball and let the clock run while trusting their defense to contain the Chiefs, and they were able to hold on for the 20-14 victory.

What we saw in Week 16 was basically a perfect script for how the Raiders want to play. Obviously, they would have preferred that a few of their passes be completed, but they are a team that has a clear vision of how they want to play, and they are going to enter each week looking to establish the run and let their defense set the tone. Las Vegas ranks in the bottom half of the league in Pass Rate Over Expectation (PROE) and has become even more run-heavy since their mid-season coaching change. They also rank in the bottom 10 in the NFL in seconds per snap, as they take their time and milk the play clock. Make no mistake; this is an old-school smashmouth football team that is going to try to impose their will on their opponents. The Colts rank 24th in the NFL in run defense DVOA while ranking 25th in PFF run defense grade, suggesting that the film matches the statistics. Indianapolis faces the 5th lowest opponent pass rate on the season, which should continue this week. The Colts were gashed on the ground by the Falcons in Week 16, a similarly run-based offense, and there is nothing about this matchup that should alter the Las Vegas approach as they enter this must-win game. When they do take to the air, they should have more success and find easier completions than they did last week against Kansas City. The Chiefs play man coverage at the 5th highest rate in the league and rank 2nd in QB pressure rate, while the Colts rank 19th in QB pressure rate and lead the league in zone coverage rate. This is a far different matchup for the passing game, and Las Vegas should be able to create some easy passing opportunities for O’Connell on hitches, slants, and other in-breaking routes that take advantage of the holes in the Indianapolis zones.

How indianapolis Will Try To Win ::

Game Overview ::

By hilow >>

• The lone ‘DNP’ for the Jaguars to start the practice week was QB Trevor Lawrence (shoulder), who had been battling some sort of shoulder injury on his throwing arm over the previous three weeks and was then forced from the team’s Week 16 loss without being hit, favoring said shoulder.
• The Panthers had a laundry list of players on the first injury report of the week, most notably five defensive starters, including two members of the secondary (CB Troy Hill and CB Jaycee Horn) and two linebackers (Marquis Haynes and Frankie Luvu).
• Jaguars WR Zay Jones (hamstring, knee) returned to a limited session Wednesday, and head coach Doug Pederson expressed optimizing that the veteran wide receiver would be able to return in Week 17.

How carolina Will Try To Win ::

There is an inherent edge in DFS by staying ahead of the field through changing dynamics. There is no better example (I mean, maybe the Bills?) than this Carolina team, a team that started the season with a run-balanced approach but has been the most run-heavy team in the league since Frank Reich was fired, by PROE. Offensive coordinator Thomas Brown has said since day one that the team needs to #establishit, and they’ve attempted to do just that. Beyond that, Chuba Hubbard has emerged as the true workhorse back in this offense with Brown at the helm – more on this below.

As was mentioned above, Chuba Hubbard has operated as a true workhorse back since Thomas Brown took over play calling, playing 64 percent or more of the team’s offensive snaps in five consecutive weeks while seeing opportunity counts of 19, 25, 25, 24, and 17 during that time. He has hit double-digit DK points in each of those games but has gone for 20 or more just twice while averaging just two targets per game. Miles Sanders has been relegated to true change of pace status, seeing ten or fewer opportunities in each of the previous four games. The matchup on the ground is far from ideal against a Jaguars team ceding 4.0 yards per carry while holding opponents to a 53.06 percent red zone touchdown rate (13^th). That said, the Jaguars have allowed a robust 1.45 yards before contact, while the strength of their defense rests with their speed.

Rookie quarterback Bryce Young threw for multiple touchdowns for just the second time this season in Week 16 against the ultra-prevent Packers. His 36 pass attempts in that game tied the high mark since Brown took over the offense, and it was the first game all season where Young passed for more than 300 yards. In other words, this pass offense is not a well-oiled machine. That said, it does present the path of least resistance against the Jaguars, but that path of least resistance is primarily on the perimeter – Bryce Young has struggled to throw to the perimeter all season. One of the most interesting aspects of Brown taking over the offense is how he kept the offense heavily rooted in 11-personnel, even with the inflated rush rate over expectation (RROE) numbers. Adam Thielen, Jonathan Mingo, D.J. Chark, and Tommy Tremble all operate as near every-down pass-catchers in this offense, while Thielen and Chark have combined to catch nine of the 11 touchdown passes thrown from Young this season. If Young is tossing a touchdown, chances are good it’s going to one of Thielen or Chark. The biggest problem is that aerial touchdowns have been extremely hard to come by for this team this year. 

How jacksonville Will Try To Win ::

Game Overview ::

By hilow >>

• The Rams are healthy at the right time as they push closer and closer to securing a playoff spot out of the NFC – only DB Tre Tomlinson and OL Joe Noteboom missed practice Thursday.
• The Giants also appear relatively healthy, with no player sitting out of practice Thursday.
• The Tommy (Danny) DeVito experience appears to have (sadly) come to an end, with the team announcing that veteran quarterback Tyrod Taylor will start for the remainder of the season.
• In case you haven’t noticed, Kyren Williams has the league’s second most valuable workload and role when healthy.
• Either Cooper Kupp or Puka Nacua has gone for 100/1 or more in each of the previous four games for the Rams, each doing so twice.

How los angeles Will Try To Win ::

The Rams have had the third lowest expected pass rate over the previous month of play, which speaks volumes to the recent torrid stretch this team has been on of late. The Rams have rattled off five wins in their last six contests, with the one loss in that span being an overtime defeat at the hands of the AFC-leading Ravens. That has led to a modest 56 percent pass rate over the previous month of play, which is actually right in line with their season-long pass play rate. In other words, this is a run-balanced team that also has one of the highest rush rates in the league when playing with a lead. The Rams rank near the middle of the league in points allowed per game and red zone scoring rate allowed, which might be more impressive than their offensive exploits when considering the state of their defensive roster entering the season. Either way, the Rams have scored 32.4 points per game over their previous five contests, all of which coincide with Kyren Williams, Cooper Kupp, and Puka Nacua being fully healthy. In fact, the Rams have averaged the same yards per play value as the 49ers when all three of their primary offensive playmakers have been healthy this year – the 49ers lead the league in that category this season.

As alluded to above, the Rams prefer to attack with their ground game when playing with a lead. Since returning from injury in Week 12, Kyren Williams has played 77 percent or more of the offensive snaps four times and has seen opportunity counts of 22 (first game back from injury on a 61 percent snap rate), 26, 29, 34, and 22 in that span, going over 100 yards on the ground in four of those five games, scoring a touchdown in four of those five games, and seeing four or more targets in four of those five games. That, my friends, is elite. Kyren has a few things going for him in this spot. First off, the Rams are 5.5-point favorites on the road, and as we said previously, the Rams love to run the football when playing with a lead. Secondly, the Giants have allowed a robust 4.7 yards per carry this season, third worst in the league. And finally, the Giants have allowed 14 total touchdowns to the position this season, tied for seventh most in the league. No doubt about it, this is a solid on-paper spot for Kyren Williams this week. Rookie running back Ronnie Rivers rejoined the active roster in Week 16 and immediately reclaimed the change of pace role behind Williams, seeing six carries on 15 offensive snaps in the process.

Arguably more impressive than the concentration of volume on the ground is the concentration of volume through the air. Over their last three games played, Rams tight ends have combined to see 13 total targets, or 4.33 per game. Puke Nacua, Cooper Kupp, and Demarcus Robinson have all worked their way into every-down pass-catching roles, each playing 86 percent or more of the offensive snaps during the most recent three-game stretch. Those three wide receivers have combined for 29 targets, 19 targets, and 29 targets in that span, with at least one of them going over 100 yards through the air with a touchdown in each of those games (Kupp twice and Nacua once). Cooper Kupp also finally appears to be fully healthy. If you’ve watched their games over the previous four weeks, Kupp is back to being the motion man of this offense on every offensive snap, running more yards prior to the snap of the football than any other wide receiver in the league. That should do wonders to get Kupp in the matchup most beneficial to production against the elevated blitz rates of Wink Martindale, increased by the fact that Kupp owns a ridiculous 32 percent target rate against man coverage this season. Both Kupp and Nacua are in a solid spot this week, while Robinson has now scored in four consecutive games for the Rams.

How new york Will Try To Win ::

Game Overview ::

By MIKE JOHNSON >>

• The Eagles’ offense finally woke up in their 33-25 Week 16 victory over the Giants, which was the first time in four weeks that they had scored 20 or more points.
• Kyler Murray has not passed for more than 256 yards in any of his six games since returning from injury this year.
• Cardinals head coach Jonathan Gannon was previously the defensive coordinator for the Eagles, which should help them be prepared for Philadelphia’s offensive attack.
• The Eagles’ defense has struggled with mobile quarterbacks this year, giving up big games to Josh Allen, Dak Prescott (x2), and Sam Howell (x2).
• The Eagles’ offense has been dominant against bad defenses this season and the Cardinals rank dead last in the NFL in defensive DVOA.

How aRIZONA Will Try To Win ::

Arizona lost convincingly to the Bears last week, which marked the third time in the last four games the Cardinals lost by double digits. The lone exception to that game was their win in Pittsburgh against the Kenny Pickett- and Mitch Trubisky-led Steelers in a game played with poor weather and field conditions. The Cardinals have found ways to be competitive at times this season, but they’ve recently have been abused and the season is taking its toll as the injury count mounts and the team’s conservative and talent-ridden defensive scheme gets beat up on by opponents. This week they travel to Philadelphia, where they will face a familiar foe in Gannon’s former employer.

Murray missed practice on Wednesday and Thursday with a “holiday bug”, as he is reportedly dealing with an illness. Obviously, his presence or absence would make a huge impact on the projections for this game. We saw one game with Clayton Tune under center against the Browns, and the Cardinals’ offense was anemic in that spot and barely able to move the ball. I would expect something similar from Arizona’s offense this week if Murray were forced to miss, but I would expect him to be available. Assuming they have Murray, the Cardinals’ offense will be in a tough spot facing a solid Eagles defensive front that has been worse against the run lately than they were early in the season. Arizona will likely focus on running the ball with James Conner and targeting Trey McBride in the passing game.

The unfortunate thing for Arizona is that Philadelphia is most susceptible on the perimeter to wide receivers, the spot where the Cardinals are the least threatening – especially with Marquise Brown expected to miss another game this week. The Cardinals will look to control the ball early in the game and likely will take a couple of downfield shots off play action as well. Assuming Murray is healthy, we should expect Arizona to use his mobility to create problems for the Eagles and try to extend plays and break them down in that way to create bigger running lanes. The Cardinals know that Philadelphia is built for playing with a lead, so while their overall tendencies will likely focus on ball control, they should also realize their best chance against the Eagles will be simultaneously shortening the game and forcing Philadelphia to play from behind. Long drives that end in touchdowns. Sounds easy, right?

How PHILADELPHIA Will Try To Win ::

Game Overview ::

By hilow >>

• Saints RB Kendre Miller (ankle) got in two limited sessions to start the week following six straight missed contests.
• Saints WR Chris Olave (ankle) also got in two limited sessions to begin the practice week.
• Buccaneers CB Carlton Davis (concussion) is still not practicing following his concussion.
• The Saints have had the sixth-largest dropoff in rush defense EPA over the last four games when compared to the first 11 weeks of the season, ranking 30^th in rush defense EPA over the previous four weeks.
• The Buccaneers currently hold a game in hand over the Saints for the NFC South title. A win by the Saints in Week 17 would still require a win in Week 18 with a loss by the Buccaneers to head to the playoffs.

How new orleans Will Try To Win ::

The Saints have largely hovered right around league average in pass rate over expectation (PROE) all season, with their two outlier games this season falling well below league average PROE values. Furthermore, their 22.1 points per game (13^th), 19.8 points allowed per game (ninth), 36.3 pass attempts per game (ninth), and 27.3 rush attempts per game (13^th) all rank around league average this season. In other words, this Saints team is around league average in most statistical categories this season – entirely unremarkable – which makes a lot of sense when taken under the umbrella of their 7-8 record. That said, this game is the Saints’ season. They must win out and still get some help to make the postseason. That adds a level of desperation to this team in this spot, something that ideally could force them into increased pass rates earlier rather than later in the right environment.

The New Orleans backfield is relatively face up at this point in the season. Expect a near-even split in snap rate between Alvin Kamara and Jamaal Williams in tightly contested-to-positive game environments, while it’s Kamara that sees an increase in snap rate in negative game environments. Even so, Williams has seen double-digit running back opportunities in just one game where both backs were healthy this season and now must contend with the likely return of rookie running back Kendre Miller after his extended absence. The Buccaneers have slipped slightly in rush defense EPA of late but still remain a difficult matchup on the ground, dropping from second in that metric over the first 11 weeks of the season to 11^th over the previous four weeks. On the season, the Buccaneers have ceded just 3.9 yards per carry and 18.1 DraftKings points per game to opposing backfields. Finally, the Bucs have allowed just seven total touchdowns to opposing backfields in 2023. In other words, this is not an ideal spot for Saints running backs.

Not much has changed regarding how the Buccaneers have played defense from earlier in the season, blitzing at the league’s third-highest rate while playing almost exclusively Cover-1 and Cover-3 behind it. As we’ve talked about in the past, those two coverage shells typically allow an increased rate of first-read targets, and a solid chunk of those first-read targets this season have gone to Olave. Olave has seen eight or more targets in all but three games this year, piercing double-digits six times. He is still playing sub-elite snap rates but has been in a route at a non-terrible 94.6 percent clip on dropbacks this season. He has also been absolutely elite against man coverage, seeing a 31 percent target rate against that primary coverage shell in 2023. He should be joined by Rashid Shaheed, A.T. Perry, and tight end Juwan Johnson as the primary pass catchers, none of whom are overly likely to command targets the way Olave can and should.

How Tampa bay Will Try To Win ::

Game Overview ::

By mike johnson >>

• San Francisco looks to bounce back after an embarrassing loss to the Ravens in primetime on Monday night.
• The 49ers will be traveling across the country to play a game in the early window on a short week (one less day of rest).
• Washington has made the change from Sam Howell to Jacoby Brissett at quarterback after Howell imploded the last couple of weeks.
• Washington’s defense ranks last in the NFL against the pass for the season while also giving up more points per game to RBs than any other team since Week 9.
• The 49ers offense scoring 30+ points in this matchup is one of the highest confidence situations you will ever find.

How San Francisco Will Try To Win ::

The 49ers have been on a tear for most of this season, especially when healthy. Their tour de force was temporarily knocked off track last week against the Ravens as Baltimore dominated on both sides of the ball and derailed the Brock Purdy for MVP hype train. After throwing only seven interceptions through the first 14 games, Purdy threw four against the Ravens and was disrupted by their pressure and coverages all night. The 49ers are a high octane offense, but are also built to play in close games or with a lead. Once they fell behind and Purdy had been made uncomfortable by the Ravens defense, it was more or less a lost cause. Purdy left the game for the second time in as many weeks due to a shoulder stinger and was replaced by Sam Darnold. He did return to a full practice on Wednesday and should be fully expected to play this week in a mouth watering matchup. Perhaps the bigger concern for the 49ers offense is the status of all pro tackle Trent Williams, who left Monday’s game with a groin injury. His absence leaves them much more vulnerable to pressure up front, although this week that should be less of an issue than it was against the Ravens. The 49ers did lose two other offensive linemen to injuries on Monday, however, so their statuses should all be tracked heading into this week’s game.

The Commanders defense is about as soft as you will find in the NFL at this point. They have given up 28 or more points in seven of their last eight games, including each of their last six – during which they have surrendered an average of 34.7 points per game. The 49ers offense, on the other hand, has been dynamite when healthy. Last week against the Ravens was the first time that a fully healthy 49ers skill corps failed to score 27 points in a game this season. Of course, the Ravens boast the NFL’s #2 ranked DVOA defense while Washington enters Week 17 ranked #31 in the same category. This is also a defense that just gave up 30 points to the Jets – not an easy feat. Said another way, this is about as pristine of a bounce back spot as you could draw up for Brock Purdy and the 49ers.

Washington ranks 32nd in pass defense DVOA and has been torched repeatedly through the air this season. They also rank dead last in the NFL in fantasy points per game allowed to running backs since Week 9. Basically, the 49ers should be able to move the ball however they want this week. San Francisco’s offense operates with Christian McCaffrey as the centerpiece and utilizes Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, and George Kittle extensively to complement him in the passing game. Those four will account for approximately 80-90% of the team’s offensive usage for at least the first three quarters of any game that isn’t completely out of hand. CMC should have plenty of room to operate against a Washington defense that gave up a monster game to Breece Hall last week. Washington plays a high percentage of zone coverage, with two-high safeties being their predominant look. That type of coverage is best suited to be attacked by Deebo Samuel and George Kittle due to the types of routes they run and their run after catch ability. Not that Brandon Aiyuk is in a bad spot this week, but the tendencies would tend to point toward Deebo and Kittle for the big game in this spot. All that being said, there should be plenty to go around for a team looking to “get right” after their setback in Week 16. I would be more surprised if the 49ers scored under 30 points in this matchup than I would be if they scored over 45.

How Washington Will Try To Win ::

Game Overview ::

By mike johnson >>

• Mason Rudolph came out of nowhere to spark the Steelers offense in last week’s dominant win over the Bengals.
• Pittsburgh will need to win on the road against two very good teams – Seattle and Baltimore – if they are going to have a shot at making the playoffs.
• A win for Seattle would put them in an extremely strong position to make the playoffs.
• Seattle has lost at home only twice this season, both times to current playoff teams and division rivals, the 49ers and the Rams
• George Pickens erupted last week against the Bengals man-heavy coverage scheme but this week faces a Seahawks secondary that plays primarily zone.

How pittsburgh Will Try To Win ::

The Steelers kept head coach Mike Tomlin’s quest to never have a losing season alive with a resounding victory over the Bengals in Week 16. The Steelers still have to win both of their remaining games against two current playoff teams, Seattle and Baltimore, if they are going to have a chance to sneak into the AFC playoffs. The Steelers saw enough of Mitchell Trubisky and decided to hand the reins to Mason Rudolph as their starting quarterback. The result was a game where they finally utilized George Pickens downfield and they scored 30 points in a game for the first time all season. 

Pittsburgh plays at a methodical pace and only five teams in the NFL pass the ball at a lower rate relative to expected than the Steelers. This week they face a Seattle defense that plays zone coverage at a very high rate, rarely blitzes, and is built upon the idea that they will keep their opponents from making big plays and will swarm to the ball. Seattle’s run defense started the season very strongly but has been much more beatable lately. Despite the big plays from Pickens last week, we should expect the Steelers to be forced to the short and intermediate areas of the field in the passing game this week. This is a team that tries to win by out-executing their opponents and winning the turnover battle. Seattle’s defense is especially tough at home and should force the Steelers to march the field rather than giving up chunk plays. Pittsburgh will likely have a strong emphasis on their running game and heavily involve both Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren. Pittsburgh will play methodically and have extended drives. They should be well equipped to move the ball against Seattle but with their big plays likely limited, they will be forced to show some ability to convert red zone opportunities into touchdowns, something that they rank 27th in the NFL at this season.

How seattle Will Try To Win ::

Game Overview ::

By MIKE JOHNSON >>

• The Broncos benched quarterback Russell Wilson this week despite still having an outside chance to make the playoffs.
• Los Angeles bounced back from its embarrassing 63-21 loss to the Raiders by nearly upsetting the Bills last Saturday.
• The Chargers’ pass-catching corps continues to deal with a ton of injury issues, as Keenan Allen and Joshua Palmer may miss this game.
• The Broncos may be without their top wide receiver, Courtland Sutton, as well in this game. Sutton is dealing with a concussion and has yet to practice this week.
• These teams met two weeks ago when the Broncos won 24-7 and their defense absolutely dominated.

How LOS ANGELES Will Try To Win ::

The Chargers bounced back in a big way after their embarrassing primetime loss to the Raiders that got Brandon Staley fired. Playing in primetime again last Saturday night against the Bills, the Chargers controlled the game and kept things close for all four quarters while playing terrific complementary football in a close loss. The big key for the Chargers in that game was that they forced three turnovers from the Bills while committing none of their own. That was in stark contrast to the Raiders game, where the Chargers committed five turnovers while creating none. That swing from a -5 turnover differential to a +3 was everything for Los Angeles and showed that it definitely needs to be on the plus side to have a chance to win.

This week, the Chargers face a Broncos team that has been terrific at creating turnovers in their victories over the second half of the season. While Denver lost an ugly game to the Patriots on Sunday night in Week 16, this has been a team whose defense has improved over the course of the season and has given some weaker teams fits this season, including the Chargers just three weeks ago in the game where Justin Herbert and Allen were injured. Herbert is done for the season and Allen seems unlikely to return this week, while Palmer is also likely to miss this game due to a concussion. That leaves quarterback Easton Stick in a tough spot as the Chargers continue to lose playmakers and will be facing an opportunistic defense.

The strength of the Broncos defense is their ability to create takeaways and their perimeter defense against the pass. Where they are most vulnerable is against running backs and the short/middle areas of the field in the passing game. Austin Ekeler should be extremely busy in this game and operate as the focal point of the Los Angeles offense. Tight end Gerald Everett should also be heavily involved, as tight ends have given Denver fits at times this season. The Chargers may also look to get Stick out of the pocket to use his legs to create easier passing angles and let him run the ball when the defense allows. Mobile quarterbacks creating yards with their legs can be a bit of a cheat code for teams like this who are running out of able bodies, and Stick isn’t their long-term quarterback so they should have no issues letting him run the ball 8-12 times this week. All things considered, the Chargers are likely to keep things simple and play close to the vest early as they hope to play another low-scoring game and win the turnover battle.

How DENVER Will Try To Win ::

MIKE JOHNSON >>

• There are precisely four players I have an interest in from this game:: Stidham, Jeudy, Ekeler, and Everett.
• Stidham to Jeudy is one of my favorite cheap stacks this week. 
• Jeudy is a talented receiver who has had flashes during his career but struggled due to injuries and inconsistent QB play. Between the switch to Stidham at QB and the likely absence of Sutton, Jeudy could have the perfect storm this week against a beatable Chargers defense.
• Stidham has a very good offensive coach, is extremely cheap, and is facing a defense that has been smashed at times this season. I also am willing to bite a bit on the “narrative” angle here, as Payton is a proud man who is taking a lot of heat for benching Wilson. It has the feel of a spot where if given the opportunity, Payton will want to prove his decision was right/justified.
• Ekeler has, by far, his lowest salary of the season. The Broncos have been gashed by running backs this season. The Chargers are likely going to feature their backs and tight ends as a means of protecting the ball and adjusting to their injury issues. It wouldn’t be shocking for Ekeler to have a bit of a renaissance game in this spot. He is also an incredible leverage play against a Broncos defense that is sure to be one of the highest owned on the slate.
• The Chargers’ wide receiver corps is depleted and the Broncos defense is very tough on the perimeter. This should force a ton of volume to the backs and interior receivers, mainly Gerald Everett. 
• Brandon Johnson is a viable option to stack with Stidham as well. He saw a huge bump in snaps and usage when Sutton left the lineup last week and is near-minimum price. If Marvin Mims were to miss this game with his hamstring injury, that would only serve to increase the confidence in Jeudy and Johnson this week.

Game Overview ::

By mike johnson >>

• The Bengals must win out to have a chance at making the playoffs in the AFC.
• If the Chiefs win this week, they will clinch the AFC West and lock themselves into the #3 seed at worst, with an outside chance at the #2 seed.
• Kansas City has scored more than 21 points only twice in their last eight games.
• The Chiefs are likely to be without starting running back Isiah Pacheco due to a concussion.
• Cincinnati will once again be without the services of All-Pro wide receiver Ja’Marr Chase due to his shoulder injury.
• Cincinnati’s defense ranks 32nd in the NFL in yards per play allowed.

How Cincinnati Will Try To Win ::

The Bengals were on quite an inspiring run with Jake Browning under center before last week’s debacle with the Steelers. Browning has been very good in his three games against middling to lower pass defenses while he struggled mightily in both games against the Steelers. This week he draws a Chiefs defense that has been the constant for Kansas City this year and which should give them all they can handle once again. The Chiefs rank 2nd in the NFL in QB pressure rate and blitz at the 5th highest rate in the league. They will be bringing the heat on Browning, who is likely to once again be without the services of Ja’Marr Chase. 

The absence of Chase and the strength of the Chiefs pass defense will tighten things up considerably for the Bengals. If they want to win this game, they want it to be a 20-16 type of game, not a game where they need to score 30+ points. While the Bengals defense hasn’t been great this year, they have had their solid moments and the Chiefs offensive struggles should let them approach this game in a more conservative mindset than they would have in past years. Defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo has done very well against Kansas City in past years and the Bengals are likely to trust his ability to keep this lower-octane version of the Chiefs in check. Playing without Chase, the Bengals top wide receiver option Tee Higgins will face a very tough matchup against L’Jarius Sneed and the Chiefs secondary which notoriously slows down opposing wide receivers. The result of all of this should be a more run-leaning game plan for the Bengals and their passing game to focus on their running backs, tight ends, and slot receiver Tyler Boyd. They will try to keep Browning from making early mistakes that let the Chiefs offense off the hook and will keep their passing game concepts to the short and intermediate areas with easy first and second reads. 

How kansas city Will Try To Win ::

XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT

Week 17 finishes up with a Sunday night game this week as the Packers visit the Vikings. This game gives us a 43.5 total with Minnesota favored by a point, so it should be, we hope, a close and interesting affair. We have some tricky injury stuff here as Jordan Addison is questionable after getting in two limited practices while Dontayvion Wicks is also questionable without practicing at all this week. I’m going to venture a guess that Addison plays while Wicks does not, but of course, it could go either way for either of them. Make sure to check in our Discord closer to game time if we don’t get news beforehand.

Minnesota

On the Vikings side, while Ty Chandler was terrible chalk in DFS last week, he still played 65% of the snaps to Alexander Mattison’s 9% and handled eight carries to Mattison’s two. It looks like this backfield is Chandler’s now, and this is a much better matchup for him against a Packers defense ranked 25th in run defense DVOA. There is some modest possibility that Mattison recaptures more work, but I think Chandler is more likely, and at $8,200, he just isn’t priced for that kind of role. He’s a very strong on-paper play – one of my favorites in this game. As for Mattison, you could hope the role swaps back or that he just gets lucky, but at $4,400 he’s a bit overpriced for an RB2 role – he’s not in a role in which he’s likely to get there from volume, he would probably need an injury to Chandler or a touchdown in order to return a relevant score. I will just note that there is a small chance of a role switch. Chandler had one big game against the Bengals when Mattison missed, but that’s a super soft matchup and then he struggled badly against the Lions (who are, to be fair, a good run defense). I think that Chandler is likely the guy, but don’t hate the idea of taking just a couple of shots on Mattison captained lineups in MME play just in case it plays out the other way.

Showdown Ownership Projections!

Ownership updates automatically

In the passing game, some guy named Jaren Hall will now take over for QB. Hall was a 5th-round pick in this year’s draft. He had a bit of rushing ability in college but otherwise was not an especially impressive prospect. Hall mostly helps the Vikings run game, I think, as we should believe that they will lean on the run as much as possible (keep in mind they’re still in the playoff picture, and this is also a divisional rivalry game). The one pass catcher I think we can trust here is, of course, Justin Jefferson. At $12k, Jefferson looks wildly overpriced, but at the same time, we have so much value on this slate that it’s still relatively easy to get to him, making him a strange but critical decision point. My instinct is to lean in here and just think that while QB play is a concern, Jefferson is still one of the best receivers in the league, the Packers are missing their top cornerback, and if Hall can just get the ball to him, Jefferson can do the rest. Past that, we have a somewhat shaky Addison (he was noted as having a high ankle sprain, which usually costs some time, but the practicing makes me think he plays but is perhaps not 100% effective), we have K.J. Osborn, and then Brandon Powell fills the WR4 role. 

At tight end, T.J. Hockenson is done for the year (another boost to Jefferson), which leaves Josh Oliver and Johnny Mundt filling the tight end role. Oliver has played ahead of Mundt for most of the year, though Mundt was the one whose role grew last week when Hockenson exited, which is a bit confusing. Oliver has looked like a reasonably capable pass catcher this year (albeit with very limited volume), while Mundt has not, so while it’s telling that Mundt is the guy whose role grew when Hock left, I could see it going either way. I’ll lean with ownership here – whichever guy projects for fewer points (and thus less ownership) around the industry is the guy I’ll want to go heavier on, but frankly, every pass catcher in this offense after Jefferson feels really shaky. 

Assuming Addison plays, I think I might still prefer Osborn to him based on their price difference and concerns over the lingering ankle injury; if Addison sits, that obviously boosts Osborn and Powell while the Vikings would also elevate a practice squad guy for the WR4 role (probably either Trishton Jackson or Lucky Jackson). 

Green Bay