XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT
Week 17 finishes up with a Sunday night game this week as the Packers visit the Vikings. This game gives us a 43.5 total with Minnesota favored by a point, so it should be, we hope, a close and interesting affair. We have some tricky injury stuff here as Jordan Addison is questionable after getting in two limited practices while Dontayvion Wicks is also questionable without practicing at all this week. I’m going to venture a guess that Addison plays while Wicks does not, but of course, it could go either way for either of them. Make sure to check in our Discord closer to game time if we don’t get news beforehand.
Minnesota
On the Vikings side, while Ty Chandler was terrible chalk in DFS last week, he still played 65% of the snaps to Alexander Mattison’s 9% and handled eight carries to Mattison’s two. It looks like this backfield is Chandler’s now, and this is a much better matchup for him against a Packers defense ranked 25th in run defense DVOA. There is some modest possibility that Mattison recaptures more work, but I think Chandler is more likely, and at $8,200, he just isn’t priced for that kind of role. He’s a very strong on-paper play – one of my favorites in this game. As for Mattison, you could hope the role swaps back or that he just gets lucky, but at $4,400 he’s a bit overpriced for an RB2 role – he’s not in a role in which he’s likely to get there from volume, he would probably need an injury to Chandler or a touchdown in order to return a relevant score. I will just note that there is a small chance of a role switch. Chandler had one big game against the Bengals when Mattison missed, but that’s a super soft matchup and then he struggled badly against the Lions (who are, to be fair, a good run defense). I think that Chandler is likely the guy, but don’t hate the idea of taking just a couple of shots on Mattison captained lineups in MME play just in case it plays out the other way.
Showdown Ownership Projections!
Ownership updates automatically
In the passing game, some guy named Jaren Hall will now take over for QB. Hall was a 5th-round pick in this year’s draft. He had a bit of rushing ability in college but otherwise was not an especially impressive prospect. Hall mostly helps the Vikings run game, I think, as we should believe that they will lean on the run as much as possible (keep in mind they’re still in the playoff picture, and this is also a divisional rivalry game). The one pass catcher I think we can trust here is, of course, Justin Jefferson. At $12k, Jefferson looks wildly overpriced, but at the same time, we have so much value on this slate that it’s still relatively easy to get to him, making him a strange but critical decision point. My instinct is to lean in here and just think that while QB play is a concern, Jefferson is still one of the best receivers in the league, the Packers are missing their top cornerback, and if Hall can just get the ball to him, Jefferson can do the rest. Past that, we have a somewhat shaky Addison (he was noted as having a high ankle sprain, which usually costs some time, but the practicing makes me think he plays but is perhaps not 100% effective), we have K.J. Osborn, and then Brandon Powell fills the WR4 role.
At tight end, T.J. Hockenson is done for the year (another boost to Jefferson), which leaves Josh Oliver and Johnny Mundt filling the tight end role. Oliver has played ahead of Mundt for most of the year, though Mundt was the one whose role grew last week when Hockenson exited, which is a bit confusing. Oliver has looked like a reasonably capable pass catcher this year (albeit with very limited volume), while Mundt has not, so while it’s telling that Mundt is the guy whose role grew when Hock left, I could see it going either way. I’ll lean with ownership here – whichever guy projects for fewer points (and thus less ownership) around the industry is the guy I’ll want to go heavier on, but frankly, every pass catcher in this offense after Jefferson feels really shaky.
Assuming Addison plays, I think I might still prefer Osborn to him based on their price difference and concerns over the lingering ankle injury; if Addison sits, that obviously boosts Osborn and Powell while the Vikings would also elevate a practice squad guy for the WR4 role (probably either Trishton Jackson or Lucky Jackson).
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