XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT
This season’s tradition of amazing island games continues as Week 17 kicks off with the Jets visiting the Browns. We have a 35-point total game with Cleveland favored by 7.5, with one of the worst offenses in the league on the road against one of the NFL’s very best defenses. The good news is that we can have high confidence in how the field is likely to build for this one. The bad news is that this is likely to be a terrible football game to watch.
Cleveland
On the Browns side, the backfield is primarily a two-way split between Jerome Ford and Kareem Hunt, with Pierre Strong mixing in a little bit. This creates kind of a gross situation. On the one hand, the best way to attack the Jets is on the ground (third in pass defense DVOA but 13th in run defense DVOA) and the Browns are large home favorites, but on the other hand, the Browns have been extremely pass-heavy since Joe Flacco took over at quarterback and we’re dealing with a split backfield. Ford has the lead over Hunt in snaps but his rushing role is wildly inconsistent with just one 20-carry game and a few more of 15+, but he’s seen 53 carries in Cleveland’s last five games. He does tend to see more carries in games that the Browns win handily (15 last week while stomping Houston), so the game script favors some extra workload. He’s also had consistently robust passing game involvement with four targets per game since Nick Chubb went down in Week 2. Hunt’s role has been much smaller, as despite his reputation as a good receiving back he’s been seeing almost no passing game work (just 19 targets in 13 games with the Browns) and generally around 8-10 carries per game but he’s leeched away a ton of Ford’s value by scoring a whopping eight touchdowns. Hunt has established a role as the red zone back, with 30 red zone carries to Ford’s 15, and 11 carries inside the 5-yard line to Ford’s four. So, Ford gets more volume but not really bell cow-type volume, while Hunt gets limited volume but has a ton of touchdown equity. That makes for a tough split. Ford is just $8,400 so it’s feasible that if he gets some decent receiving work, he could potentially pay off his salary without scoring a touchdown, while Hunt almost certainly needs a touchdown in order to be viable. Given the matchup and the likely game script, I’m in on Ford in builds predicated on the Browns winning, while Hunt is more of a tournament “touchdown or bust” dart throw. Strong isn’t seeing enough volume to be anything more than a pure punt play.
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In the passing game, we’ve seen Joe Flacco attempt between 42 to 45 passes in all four of his starts with Cleveland. He’s averaging a quite respectable 7.5 yards per pass attempt (which would tie him with Dak Prescott and Matt Stafford), though that has come in solid passing game matchups whereas this one is a certified nightmare. When Flacco joined Cleveland, the OWS team was trying to determine if Cleveland would just let Flacco be himself, or if they would tailor his role to their run heavy offense. So far, they’ve let Flacco be himself and it’s resulted in a ton of passing volume and some big games for their top receivers. But this matchup is different than the others he’s faced and leans more towards the run, so . . . will they keep letting Flacco chuck it (and keep in mind he has seven interceptions in four games)? Or, will they lean more run heavy given that’s what the matchup seems to favor? The answer is I don’t really know – rational coaching would say to take a more run heavy approach, be conservative, and focus on the weakness of the defense. After all, the Browns are 10-5 and competing for seeding so they can’t just throw things to the wind here. But, the assumption of rational coaching is a dangerous thing. For me, I’m going to just build sets of rosters under both assumptions.
The Browns will trot out Amari Cooper, Elijah Moore, and Cedric Tillman as their primary wide receivers, with David Bell and Marquise Goodwin playing small backup roles. Amari has seen 42 targets since Flacco took over at quarterback, but is set for a date with Sauce Gardner, one of the NFL’s best cornerbacks. Normally, I don’t put a huge amount of stock into WR/CB matchups, but this is one of the most difficult ones around (especially since the Jets secondary isn’t just about Gardner – they’re elite all around). $11.2k is a lot to spend for a receiver in such a nightmare matchup, but you can make a case for paying up for ceiling and likely lower than normal ownership. Moore has done nothing all season, really. He has four games over 10 DK points, but his season-high is 15.4. That’s . . . not good. Flacco gave him 12 targets in their first game together (of which he caught just four), and then six, three, and four targets. I’m pretty out on Moore outside of a small bit of tourney exposure as a dart throw. I’d rather play Tillman due to price, as while Moore is $6,600, Tillman is just $3k. He’s averaging five targets per game since Flacco took over (vs. Moore’s 6.25), but he’s seemed capable of catching some of them, which is, you know, kind of an important trait for an NFL receiver. He’s on the field almost as much as Amari and Moore and might see some softer coverage if New York really focuses on Amari. The floor is low for any pass catcher in this game, but at his price, I think Tillman is worthy of strong consideration. Bell and Goodwin are just punt options, with Bell’s role likely getting a modest boost if Goodwin’s knee injury keeps him out.
At tight end, David Njoku has the lead role, and it’s a big one with 70%+ of the snaps in every game this season. He’s another one who has earned Flacco’s trust with 37 targets through four games – that’s a huge workload for a tight end and it’s also come along with four touchdowns. At $7,800, Njoku just isn’t priced for that kind of volume. He can play in the short areas of the field for some easier PPR points but he can also run deep routes as he has multiple catches of 20+ yards with Flacco at QB. He’s my overall favorite pass catcher on the Browns. Harrison Bryant and Jordan Akins will play some backup TE snaps and can be included in MME player pools as punt options.
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