Game Overview ::
By mike johnson >>
- If the Colts lose this game, they will need to win in Week 18 and get a lot of help to get in the AFC playoffs.
- The Raiders have clawed their way back into the playoff hunt but need to win both remaining games to have a chance.
- Indianapolis should have their offense back close to full strength as they expect to get Zack Moss and Michael Pittman back in uniform this week.
- Las Vegas should enter this game with a ton of energy and momentum after a 42-point win over the Chargers and a shocking Christmas day upset of the Chiefs.
- The Colts have a worse home record (3-4) than they do on the road (5-3), while last week’s win over the Chiefs was the first time all year the Raiders beat a team that currently has a winning record.
How las vegas Will Try To Win ::
The Raiders approach to winning games is no secret at this point. They have taken on the personality of their head coach and are playing a physical brand of football with their running game and defense leading the charge. Last week, they created two defensive touchdowns in the first half against the Chiefs and did not complete a pass for the last three-quarters of the game. Yes, you read that correctly. Rookie quarterback Aidan O’Connell completed nine passes on the Raiders opening drive and then did not complete another pass the rest of the game. The Raiders were playing without running back Josh Jacobs but just ran the ball and let the clock run while trusting their defense to contain the Chiefs, and they were able to hold on for the 20-14 victory.
What we saw in Week 16 was basically a perfect script for how the Raiders want to play. Obviously, they would have preferred that a few of their passes be completed, but they are a team that has a clear vision of how they want to play, and they are going to enter each week looking to establish the run and let their defense set the tone. Las Vegas ranks in the bottom half of the league in Pass Rate Over Expectation (PROE) and has become even more run-heavy since their mid-season coaching change. They also rank in the bottom 10 in the NFL in seconds per snap, as they take their time and milk the play clock. Make no mistake; this is an old-school smashmouth football team that is going to try to impose their will on their opponents. The Colts rank 24th in the NFL in run defense DVOA while ranking 25th in PFF run defense grade, suggesting that the film matches the statistics. Indianapolis faces the 5th lowest opponent pass rate on the season, which should continue this week. The Colts were gashed on the ground by the Falcons in Week 16, a similarly run-based offense, and there is nothing about this matchup that should alter the Las Vegas approach as they enter this must-win game. When they do take to the air, they should have more success and find easier completions than they did last week against Kansas City. The Chiefs play man coverage at the 5th highest rate in the league and rank 2nd in QB pressure rate, while the Colts rank 19th in QB pressure rate and lead the league in zone coverage rate. This is a far different matchup for the passing game, and Las Vegas should be able to create some easy passing opportunities for O’Connell on hitches, slants, and other in-breaking routes that take advantage of the holes in the Indianapolis zones.
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