Published Sep 18, 2026 · 9:38 PM ET

BY XANDAMERE >>

Xandamere is one of the most respected and consistently dominant Showdown players in DFS, breaking down strategy thoughts and rules for every TNF, SNF, and MNF game

XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT

After a wild, high-scoring Week 1, Week 2 opens with the Lions traveling to Buffalo for a whopping 53.5 point total game with the Bills favored by 4.5. The Bills are fresh off of putting up 36 against Houston’s elite defense, while the Lions had to go to overtime against the Saints and won when New Orleans failed to convert a two-point conversion.

BUFFALO

We’ll start with the Bills, who beat the Texans despite only having the ball for 23:43 and running just 52 offensive plays — they connected on some huge plays with Josh Allen throwing for 334 yards on just 29 pass attempts. The run game struggled to get going and James Cook only had 13 carries despite Buffalo playing from ahead for the majority of the game, which is a little concerning, but it was just one week and I don’t want to read too much into it. What is always more concerning for Cook is that Josh Allen tends to carry the ball himself when the Bills get close in — they ran two plays from the one yard line against the Texans, one was an incomplete pass and the other was Allen running the ball in for a score. Last season James Cook had 16 carries from inside the five yard line while Allen had 14. Cook is a talented back and he’s attached to an elite offense, but the lack of goal-line work really puts a damper on his floor (though his ceiling is still very robust). On a slate with a lot of high-end options, Cook is not my favorite play, but he’s certainly viable and if he gets lost in the ownership shuffle as people gravitate to other plays, he could become something of a contrarian pick. Anything under about 35-40% total ownership is too low for him. Cook played an elite 72% of the offensive snaps while Frank Gore Jr. played 19% and Ray Davis 9%, each seeing a single carry. They’re punt plays with Gore looking like he has the slightly stronger role.

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In the passing game, new acquisition DJ Moore led the team in snaps at 76% and he converted eight targets into a 5/100/1 line. Eight targets don’t jump out at you but when you consider that Allen only attempted 29 passes last week, that’s a 27.6% target share, which is very, very healthy. The Bills have a pretty long history of rotating wide receiver usage, so I don’t want to assume this usage is completely sticky just yet…but it’s definitely encouraging for Moore, and if he keeps getting this kind of target share, he’s significantly underpriced at just $7,800 in a good matchup. Behind Moore Khalil Shakir and Keon Coleman each played about half the snaps and then Josh Palmer was in a small role — in total the Bills ran two wide receivers on almost every play with a lot of heavy personnel sets, and if this continues, it’s tough to get excited about the non-Moore guys. Shakir is a solid target earner but his route tree is short and thus he has little per-target upside, and $6,400 is pretty pricey for a guy who might be a half-time kind of player. Keon Coleman was on the field about as often as Shakir but only got one target (womp womp) and is looking more and more like a bust of a draft pick, while Palmer didn’t play a lot but did catch the game-winning touchdown. Shakir is the safest of the non-Moore options but I question the upside if he doesn’t find the end zone, while Palmer and Coleman are significantly riskier options. Overall, I don’t want a ton of exposure to the non-Moore wide receivers. At tight end Dalton Kincaid saw the second-most offensive snaps of any pass catcher and caught five of six targets for 130 receiving yards. I’m in on Kincaid — I’ve always liked him as a player, the issue has always been snaps and routes as he topped out at 55% of the snaps last season. If this boost is sticky, he could be in for a big year — he was also tied for 2nd on the team in targets behind Moore. Dawson Knox has some pass-catching talent and is on the field a lot and he’s cheap, so he’s a viable value option as well. Overall, Moore and Kincaid are my favorite Bills pass catchers by quite a wide margin, and the others are all tourney viable but I don’t want a ton of exposure to any of them and I’d be careful having too many of them on one roster.

Published Sep 18, 2026 · 10:02 PM ET

GAME OVERVIEW::

• Atlanta’s QB situation is a hot mess – Tua Tagovailoa did not practice Wednesday and is trending toward a second straight absence, Michael Penix Jr. got in a full practice but is reportedly still not ready for game action, Cooper Rush has been one of the worst quarterbacks in the league the last two seasons and is experiencing back spasms, and Jack Strand is an undrafted free agent rookie. Head coach Kevin Stefanski would not speculate on the starter for Week 2 Wednesday, but most signs point to Rush getting another crack under center.
• OG Chris Lindstrom and CB A.J. Terrell also missed practice Wednesday.
• WR Jalen Coker (ankle) was limited Wednesday but is trending toward playing against the Falcons.
• Panthers OC Brad Idzik put some solid fundamentals on tape in his first game calling offensive plays in Carolina, but there were numerous areas that still need significant improvement. More on this below.

HOW CAROLINA WILL TRY TO WIN::

The Panthers ranked 14th in motion rate, 19th in play action rate, and third in CPOE+ in Week 1, with first-time offensive play caller Brad Idzik doing a solid job with structure and execution in his first game at the helm of the offense in Carolina. He received poor marks in sequencing and diversification, although some of that can be attributed to his team falling behind 21-7 early in the second quarter. Either way, what he put on tape was leagues better than what Dave Canales had the previous two seasons, giving us legitimate hope for the Panthers after two rather poor seasons. Sure, the Panthers went to the playoffs by “winning” the NFC South. The reality of the situation is they were out-scored by almost 70 points last year and managed to back their way into the postseason with a losing record (8-9). The final comment here regards the motion that was utilized in that the bulk was executed via tight ends and running backs, which has proven to lack the same impact as motioning a wide receiver. Idzik utilized wide receiver motion on only three offensive snaps, twice by Legette and once by McMillan, and he was highly predictable with the motion he did utilize. If a tight end was in motion, it was a run to the strong side. He’ll have to do better with sequencing and disguising the motion before this offense takes a significant step forward.

Chuba Hubbard operated as a borderline workhorse following an offseason dominated by Jonathon Brooks headlines. Much of that can likely be attributed to the fact that Brooks missed significant time leading up to the season, or can it? The truth is we really don’t know for certain. I’m keeping an open mind with this backfield moving forward until we see an established trend. For his part, Hubbard ran really well against the Bears, but so too would most backs because that defense is… woof. Hubbard’s 71 percent snap rate translated to a suboptimal 54.2 percent opportunity share. His 4.9 yards per carry was undersold by only 10 rush attempts due primarily to game environment, with a fantasy score buoyed by two total touchdowns. The truth likely rests somewhere in the middle, with Hubbard a middling lead back talent in an offense that should find middling success on the ground throughout the season. The Falcons just held Pittsburgh running backs to a paltry 2.8 yards per carry after allowing 4.6 yards per carry in 2025. It’s a middling spot on paper.

The Carolina pass offense was a highly concentrated unit in Week 1, with only Tetairoa McMillan (90.7 percent), Jalen Coker (81.4 percent), Xavier Legette (60.5 percent), and Chuba Hubbard (55.8 percent) in a route on more than 40 percent of the team’s dropbacks, with tight ends Darren Waller and Tommy Tremble both checking in at 39.5 percent. Things condense further considering Legette has effectively been thrown to the wolves in a sacrificial X-type role and Waller and Tremble are sharing the pass-catching tight end role. The big talking point this offseason surrounding this pass game was the desire to move McMillan around the formation more to do a better job of generating mismatches for their alpha receiver. And while his slot snap rate ticked up slightly in Week 1 compared to his rookie season (27 percent versus 20 percent), he was not utilized in motion (one snap in motion) nor did we see an expanding route tree. There is still a way to go before I view McMillan as a true alpha, like some had this offseason during Best Ball season. The matchup through the air could get a substantial boost should A.J. Terrell be unable to go as injuries continue to mount in the Atlanta secondary.

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Published Sep 18, 2026 · 10:10 PM ET

GAME OVERVIEW::

• Bears HC Ben Johnson was serious when he said he wanted to set the NFL record for scoring in a season. He’ll have an entirely different challenge against the Vikings than the one presented to him against the Panthers in Week 1.
• There is nothing in the data or on tape that gives me confidence in projecting any Bears pass-catcher over the others, outside of saying “Rome Odunze has beaten the matchup the best in a small sample.”
• Bears RBs ranked first (Swift) and sixth (Monangai) in rush EPA/play while leading the league in yards per carry in Week 1, while the offensive line ranked third in adjusted run-blocking yards (ARBY), per statrankings.com.
• Justin Jefferson is going to project extremely well in this spot.
• Another spot where it’s going to be extremely difficult to project Bears pass-catchers.
• UPDATE: RB Jordan Mason was placed on IR Wednesday.

HOW MINNESOTA WILL TRY TO WIN::

The Vikings lost their starting quarterback in Week 1 and proceeded to rank 31st in PROE+ against the Packers, a stat designed to measure both PROE and pace of play, per statrankings.com. Throwing a further wrench into expectations in Week 2 is the potential absence of running back Jordan Mason (UPDATE: Mason was placed on IR Wednesday). About two-thirds of the players who enter the concussion protocol fail to gain clearance the following week under the league’s updated protocols, meaning we should expect Kyler Murray to miss Week 2. Adding the fact that the Bears just hung 59 points on the Panthers leads to a situation in which we can be highly confident in a more possession-style, control the clock offensive stance from the Vikings to start this one.

The Vikings worked out three running backs on Tuesday, which raises concerns surrounding the expected level of health of Mason after the veteran back emerged from Week 1 with a thumb injury (UPDATE: Mason was placed on IR Wednesday). Veteran journeyman DeeJay Dallas served as the RB3 in Week 1, likely due to his contribution on special teams, while sixth-round rookie Demond Claiborne was a game-day inactive. I would expect Claiborne to be active and immediately step into the 1B role behind aging veteran Aaron Jones, should Mason be unable to go. That’s important in this spot considering the Bears allowed 5.7 yards per carry to the Panthers. I don’t expect Jones to be charged with a significant uptick in opportunities considering his age and the team’s unwillingness to give one back the bulk of the workload in the past. Finally, the Vikings ranked just 29th in ARBY in Week 1 against a Packers defense without Micah Parsons.

Jordan Addison just saw two targets on an 85.7 percent route participation as the primary deep option through the air, paving the way for Justin Jefferson to notch an elite 8-92-2 receiving line as the primary target. We’ve seen this story unfold before with Carson Wentz under center. The veteran slinger completely locks onto his top option, having fed Jefferson 10 targets per game when starting a season ago. That setup came within an offensive structure that refused to abandon the run while playing from behind deep into the third quarter, resulting in the seventh lowest PROE in Week 1. In other words, expect the Vikings to approach this game with a balanced game plan, until otherwise forced. Tight end T.J. Hockenson continues to look like he’s running through mud in routes and ran only 14 routes in Week 1, although the caveat there is that he saw a 28.57 percent TPRR in that sample. Jauan Jennings and tight end Josh Oliver were the only other players to run a route other than the backs and are both not worthy of consideration. Finally, Bears cornerback Tyrique Stevenson allowed the highest rating in coverage in Week 1, reinforcing one of our major talking points going into last week regarding the state of the Chicago secondary.

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Published Sep 18, 2026 · 9:42 PM ET

GAME OVERVIEW ::

• Philadelphia looks to get their offense going after a season opener that had mixed results.
• The Eagles offense ranked 30th in the NFL in success rate in Week 1, but ranked 10th in explosive play rate and were one of only three teams in the league to have three plays of 40+ yards.
• Tennessee’s offense continues to be a massive concern after a slow opening week.
• Tony Pollard and Tyjae Spears operated in an evenly split committee backfield in Week 1.
• It is a very narrow path for the Titans offense to move the ball in this game given their current makeup and the strengths of the Eagles defense.
• This game features two punters tied for first in the league in punts after Week 1. Good times.

HOW PHILADELPHIA WILL TRY TO WIN::

On the surface, the Eagles offense was solid in Week 1. They scored 24 points, had over 300 yards of total offense while averaging 6.0 yards per play (only the Lions and Rams averaged at least 6.0 yards per play in 2025), and won a divisional game to open their season. A deeper dive, and actually watching the game, shows a much different reality for this Philadelphia team. Saquon Barkley had a 42-yard run, Dallas Goedert caught a 43-yard touchdown pass, and Dontayvion Wicks had a 63-yard reception that ended with him being tackled inside the 10-yard line. Those three plays made the Eagles one of only three teams, along with the Packers and Ravens, to have three plays of 40+ yards in Week 1. The main difference between the Eagles and those other teams is that Philadelphia managed only 318 total yards despite those explosive plays, while the Packers finished with 419 total yards and the Ravens had 506. This fact bears out in the fact that Philadelphia was 30th in play success rate against a Commanders defense that is expected to be improved from 2025, but definitely not ranked among the league’s elite.

Looking ahead to this week, the Eagles are likely to focus on getting their running game going after a rough opening game. Saquon Barkley was visibly frustrated at various points during the game and their inability to run the ball consistently is a big part of why they were behind the chains and struggled to sustain drives. New offensive coordinator Sean Mannion comes from the Shanahan/McVay coaching tree and those offenses are built around the concept of a strong running game keeping you ahead of the sticks and creating second and third and short situations where the entire playbook is at your disposal and first downs can pile up. As drives sustain, opportunities for shot plays open up and the offense becomes very difficult to defend. Fixing the running game will be objective #1 for the Eagles entering this week. In the passing game, look for the Eagles to get DeVonta Smith more involved after a pedestrian opening week. Dontayvion Wicks made the long catch and caught a touchdown, while tight end Dallas Goedert scored twice, but Smith is the one who is likely to benefit most from the Eagles finding more success on the ground and in the long-term is likely to be their most consistent receiving threat. First round rookie WR Makai Lemon had a forgettable debut, setting the NFL record for fewest receiving yards in a first game at negative-five. Philly shouldn’t be scared of the opposing offense in this game, so look for them to get Barkley and Smith back on track while playing somewhat conservatively and gradually building their lead.

DFS+ Interpretation::

Published Sep 18, 2026 · 9:44 PM ET

Game Overview

• The Patriots passing game weapons are among the least explosive in the league after the A.J. Brown injury
• Rhamondre Stevenson was an every down player without TreVeyon Henderson. Henderson is practicing early in the week, but his status is unconfirmed.
• The Patriots O-line is above average, but they are better at passing blocking than they are at run blocking
• Drake Maye looked shaky in Week 1 and there is a chance he’s not as good as he appeared last season against a historically easy schedule.
• The Steelers threw the ball a lot, threw it down the field, and played fast Week 1. Their play style looked like the McCarthy Cowboys.
• Rico Dowdle and Jaylen Warren split the backfield nearly down the middle.
• D.K. Metcalf saw 10 targets and he’s going to have a lot of double-digit target games if the Steelers keep playing like they did Week 1

How Pittsburgh Will Try to Win

The 1-0 Steelers got it done in the first game of the Mike McCarthy era. It’s hard to take much away from a win over Cooper Rush, but you must win the ones you’re supposed to win and those types of games were a problem throughout Mike Tomlin’s tenure. McCarthy has been a head coach before, but the Steelers have a new offensive coordinator in Brain Angelichio. Angelichio has over 15 years of coaching experience as a TEs coach. Angelichio worked with McCarthy for several years with the Packers, so he must have liked him during their time together. Their first game looked nothing like the Tomlin led Steelers of last year. They were aggressive (1st in PROE) and played fast (7th in seconds per play). The McCarthy/Rodgers offenses of the past were efficient, but operated at a notoriously slow pace, with prime Rodgers consistently using the entire play clock. The Steelers offense moved more like McCarthy’s Cowboys teams than his Rodgers led Packers squads. The Steelers weren’t just throwing and playing at pace, they were also attacking downfield. They had one of the highest intended air yards in the league, and Rodgers perceived conservative nature might have had more to do with Tomlin’s preferences than Rodgers deciding to be a check down king. Most encouraging, the top 10 seconds per play pace and aggressive play calling came in a game that was close, which indicates this play style is going to be the Steelers preference. If the Steelers play like the McCarthy Cowboys, there are going to be weeks when their passing game pieces take off.

The Steelers O-line is sold (12th ranked by PFF) and are a young unit on the rise. Center Zach Fraizer is on his way to being the best center in the league, and RT Dylan Cook who was a big question mark had an excellent Week 1 with a 95% pass blocking win rate. The Patriots were below average against the pass (24th in DVOA) and strong (7th in DVOA) against the run in Week 1. The Patriots’ defense was expected to be an above average unit and only gave up 13 points, albeit, against Drew Lock. The Patriots surrendered 5.2 YPC to Jadarian Price, and Jaxon Smith-Njigba hit them for a big game, but they’re coming home off an extended rest and should be considered a difficult matchup. It’s reasonable to assume the Steelers are going to play with an aggressive pass first mindset in competitive games. Nothing about the matchup should tilt the Steelers away from their preferred method of play, and at this point, it’s worth throwing out any preseason expectations. Believe what they showed Week 1. Expect the Steelers to play quickly and throw downfield.

DFS+ Interpretation

Published Sep 18, 2026 · 10:06 PM ET

GAME OVERVIEW::

• Matthew Golden led the Packers in YPRR and first-read target rate against Cover-2 in his rookie season and now finds himself in an every-down role, running the most routes of Green Bay pass-catchers, against an opponent that deployed Cover-2 at a 42.9 percent frequency in Week 1. He finished Week 1 with the second most xFP, amongst wide receivers.
• Jets rookie WR Omar Cooper Jr. did not practice Wednesday after departing the team’s Week 1 win over the Titans with an ankle injury.
• Matt LaFleur expertly demonstrated yet another way to lose a game he was controlling against the Vikings. Packers fans, we are far too familiar with this nonsense.
• OC Frank Reich finally gives the Jets a sense of structure and offensive purpose, things this franchise has been without for quite some time.

HOW GREEN BAY WILL TRY TO WIN::

The Packers have long been a methodical offense when it comes to generating personnel mismatches, something that has slowed down their pace of play since the arrival of Matt LaFleur in 2019. Not that what we saw in Week 1 completely throws that out of the window, but this team was much more firm when it comes to personnel groupings and alignments. The decreased emphasis on personnel substitutions to take advantage of situational micro-mismatches led to a significant three-second boost in pace of play against the Vikings, with more clearly defined roles in personnel. It’s much too early to label those slight alterations in the offense as trends or noise, and the absences of both Josh Jacobs and Savion Williams could have contributed to them, but it was worth noting as start moving into the “who can identify trends quicker” portion of the DFS season. Another significant change for this team entering 2026 is an offensive line that has continued to decline, which has been more of a trickle during the previous four-to-five years but is coming to a head. The Packers now “boast” a bottom-five offensive line across the board, which influences both the efficiency and design of the offense. For example, Jordan Love had the second quickest time to throw in Week 1, behind only Patrick Mahomes and that offense’s inability to generate anything downfield, and averaged the second fewest yards per rush attempt.

Chris Brooks and MarShawn Lloyd shared the backfield in a near-even split in Week 1, which I think had more to do with the insane blitz rates exhibited by Brian Flores’ Vikings defense than anything considering Brooks is far superior in protection. Lloyd led the way in opportunities with a 63.6 percent opportunity share to the 36.4 percent of Brooks, something more telling of expected usage moving forward for as long as Josh Jacobs remains on the commissioner exempt list. The Jets somehow allowed the hapless Titans to average 4.9 yards per carry but only faced 10 running back rush attempts. Consider it a plus matchup on paper for a team that isn’t likely to get many of those this season.

Nine non-running back players ran a route for the Packers in Week 1, something we have fully grown accustomed to in recent seasons. That said, only three players were in a route on more than 60 percent of Love’s dropbacks, and only Matthew Golden, Christian Watson, Jayden Reed, Tucker Kraft, and Jonnu Smith ran more than six total routes (Bo Melton). Gone are Dontayvion Wicks and Romeo Doubs and the only two wide receivers on the game-day roster outside of the top three were a practice squad call-up in Melton and a recent signee in Skyy Moore with Savion Williams on injured reserve. This pass game is going to be much more concentrated than in previous seasons and we’re likely to get additional pass volume considering the state of their backfield and offensive line. Piggybacking on that note is a quick stat drop – Golden left Week 1 with the second most expected fantasy points at wide receiver in the league, behind only Amon-Ra St. Brown. He saw three red zone targets and led the team in route participation as the prototypical X-type receiver, with Watson the Z, and Reed stuck in a near Y-only role. Golden is still priced at only $4,700 on DraftKings. Even in a quiet rookie season, Golden led the Packers in YPRR and first-read target rate against Cover-2, which the Jets deployed at a robust 42.9 percent frequency in Week 1.

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Published Sep 18, 2026 · 10:08 PM ET

GAME OVERVIEW::

• Breaking News – Deshaun Watson is beyond cooked. More at 11.
• Raheim Sanders stepped into the vacated third down role following the departure of Dylan Sampson, the latter of whom was placed on IR Tuesday.
• The Browns were the only team in the league to average fewer yards per carry than their adjusted run-blocking yards metric suggests.
• The Buccaneers coughed the football up four times in Week 1, but otherwise did not punt. Clean up the mental errors, win the game. That is likely their focus heading into a game they are expected to handle business in.
• Both RB Sean Tucker and WR Jalen McMillan returned to full practices on Wednesday after missing Week 1.

HOW CLEVELAND WILL TRY TO WIN::

I don’t think the Browns know how they will try to win. Their offense is completely hamstrung by their quarterback situation, their defense was vanilla and predictable, there was little to no fight on either side of the ball, and they were held to three total points for over 58 minutes of the game. Poor Todd Monken. But also, why take that job? Actually, poor Browns fans. I digress. The Browns left Week 1 ranked dead last in motion rate (32.7 percent) and ranked 19th in PROE+, effectively resigned to getting through the game as quickly as possible. The thing is, I don’t know if we can expect those tendencies to change, meaning we’re likely looking at another week in which the Browns are simply trying to make it through the game without doing too many stupid things. It sounds harsh, but that’s the reality of what we were shown on the field in their opener.

The injury to Dylan Sampson created opportunity in long down-and-distance situations for someone to step into, and it was somewhat shocking to me that they chose to fill those situations with Raheim Sanders instead of trickling some scraps to lead back Quinshon Judkins. Even so, Judkins accounted for a healthy 77.8 percent team opportunity share, good for ninth highest in the league in Week 1. The Cleveland offensive line actually played pretty well in that game, leaving their opener with the fourth highest ARBY. The backs were another story, finishing the week as the only backfield to rush for fewer yards than were blocked for them. Literally nothing went right for this team against the Jaguars, and it is hard for me to get on board with anything going right for them on the ground against a Todd Bowles defense with Vita Vea clogging the middle of the field.

The Cleveland pass offense did not look like we expected coming into the regular season after a full offseason of reports that led us down the path of Kevin “Kevin Concepcion” Concepcion. Sidebar, I found out very late in the offseason that the “KC” in KC Concepcion’s name literally stands for “Kevin Concepcion.” Anywho, the rookie was in a route at a lowly 59.3 percent clip against the Jaguars, fourth on the team behind Denzel Boston, Jerry Jeudy, and Harold Fannin Jr., with 62.5 percent of his snaps coming from the slot. The offense being more rigid in structure meant that the wide receivers mostly stuck to a position, with Boston the X, Jeudy the Z, and Concepcion the Y/slot, with Fannin somewhat “relegated” to heavier inline rates (lowly 19 percent slot rate). Jeudy is toast, Fannin is effectively changing positions relative to his role from 2025, and Concepcion appears unlikely to see a role conducive to upside. That leaves Boston as the only player that realistically could see enough opportunity to matter through the air, and even then, Deshaun Watson is “throwing” him the football. I saw a lot of people talking up his late touchdown throw to Boston after Week 1, but man, his mechanics on that deep throw looked worse than Philip Rivers (love you, Phil), and it looked like that was a maximum capacity throw (it was 46 yards). I hate to say it (not really), but Watson is beyond cooked, and his time as the starter is likely to come to an end in short order. I want no part of this pass offense, even if there’s a fire.

DFS+ INTERPRETATION::

Published Sep 18, 2026 · 10:00 PM ET

GAME OVERVIEW::

• WR Chris Olave (hamstring) was added to the team’s injury report Thursday as a limited participant after getting in a full session Wednesday. To me, that means he was injured during Thursday’s session, introducing uncertainties surrounding his status against the Ravens.
• RB Alvin Kamara returned to full practices through two days of reporting and is expected to make his season debut.
• WR Zay Flowers was absent from practice on both Wednesday and Thursday after aggravating a hamstring injury early in the second half of the team’s win against the Colts. He appears highly unlikely to play against the Saints.
• The Saints, under Kellen Moore, have trailed by an average of 7.1 points at the half over the sample of 19 games.

HOW NEW ORLEANS WILL TRY TO WIN::

Kellen Moore continues to utilize pace and heavy pass rates as his primary weapon. The other components of his offense are uninspiring, at best. The Saints were near the middle of the pack in motion rate in Week 1 (57.5 percent) but were one of the few offenses holding the league-wide under-center rate and play action rate (15.9 percent) down in the first week of play. Situational tendencies, sequencing, and route structure remain an issue in this offense, which is one of the reasons I was handily underweight (as in, full fade) Travis Etienne in Best Ball. The pass catchers are another story because the offense is so concentrated and there is so much volume, with Devaughn Vele one of my highest exposure stances throughout the offseason. I don’t bring that up to toot my horn after one week of play, simply vocalize my read on this offense and how they operate. Which brings us back to Week 2. The Ravens have had a highly athletic, fast, and disciplined defense for some time, and they now get a defensive scheme upgrade with the introduction of head coach Jesse Minter to the equation. Minter brings a highly complex and varied system to Baltimore, one that is going to disguise coverages and alignments while forcing opponents to march the field, taking away the big plays in the process. In Week 1, his defense utilized exactly even rates of single-high and two-high, while not utilizing more than 21 percent of any one coverage. He was the only defensive play caller to utilize every single coverage, from Cover-0 to Cover-9, in Week 1. This is going to be a difficult nut for Moore to crack, and I don’t know if he’s up for the challenge, in all honesty. One final fun fact before we continue: Moore’s Saints averaged only 8.0 points in the first half of the 19 games since the start of 2025, while allowing 15.1 points in the first half. Said another way, the Saints are down by an average of a touchdown per game at the break over a 19-game sample. I would expect more of the same in this spot.

The team’s highly-paid newcomer in the backfield, Travis Etienne, did not handle the workload we expected entering the season, which was of particular concern considering the team was without veteran Alvin Kamara in Week 1. Etienne handled 58.1 percent of the backfield opportunities on a 59 percent snap rate, keeping him in “1A” territory and far from workhorse territory. Kendre Miller scored the lone backfield touchdown as the team made a feverish comeback to push the Lions into overtime, while CJ Donaldson also received snaps and opportunities. Expect Kamara to slide back into a primary passing situation role in his debut, posing an interesting question—does his return eat into Miller’s opportunity as the primary change of pace option or does Etienne’s workload suffer further? I don’t have a solid read on where that will land in this spot, but I have to question Etienne’s range of outcomes, regardless. The Ravens allowed 5.1 yards per carry against the Colts, which isn’t that farfetched considering those were accounted for by one of the great running backs in the league, after allowing 4.2 yards per carry the year prior. It’s a middling matchup on paper against a defense that will strive to keep eyes in the backfield.

This pass offense is already highly concentrated in the absence of Jordyn Tyson, and now we have concerns about the level of health of Chris Olave. Mid-week additions to the injury report are never good, especially for a key injury versus position. We never want to see ankles for running backs or hamstrings for wide receivers based on what those positions ask of their bodies on game day, and that is exactly what we have with Olave—the dreaded wide receiver hamstring. I don’t have a solid read on whether to expect him against the Ravens, but this passing game would condense even further than they already are should he miss. If that’s the case this weekend, Vele is not a player that is going to see his role materially altered into some downfield threat, likely leaving rookies Bryce Lance and Barion Brown to start on the perimeter. I would expect elevated rates of 12-personnel in that instance, with both Juwan Johnson and Noah Fant on the field at elevated rates. Volume would be most likely to concentrate on Vele and the tight ends with Olave out, considering the matchup and state of the available skill position players, making all three potential cost-considered values at current salary. Olave being able to go would obviously be a massive boost to the offense, with the schematic matchup a poor fit for how he is used in the offense.

DFS+ INTERPRETATION::

Published Sep 18, 2026 · 10:04 PM ET

GAME OVERVIEW::

• WR Nico Collins reportedly suffered a hamstring injury in practice Wednesday. Initial testing indicated it is unlikely to be a long-term issue but he is looking iffy to play in Week 2.
• QB Joe Burrow missed practice Wednesday with back stiffness. His quote to the media later in the day was pretty telling, effectively saying, “if I’m not having surgery, I’m playing.”
• The Cincinnati offense looked exactly the same to what we’ve grown accustomed to in recent seasons under Zac Taylor – zero under-center play for Joe Burrow, little pre-snap motion, and almost no play action. The offense is still designed to generate isolation and let his players win.
• Ja’Marr Chase against single-high since 2024: 32.43 percent TPRR, 2.74 YPRR, 0.66 FP/RR, 38.26 percent first-read target rate. The Texans led the league in single-high utilization in Week 1.

HOW CINCINNATI WILL TRY TO WIN::

All the talk throughout the offseason about Joe Burrow going under center at a higher rate to give the Bengals the ability to execute play action effectively basically fell flat on their face in Week 1. The Bengals ranked 27th in motion rate and dead last in play action rate against the Buccaneers. Watching the tape from that win, the bulk of the pre-snap motion that they did utilize was through either running back Chase Brown or the tight ends, with Andrei Iosivas utilized as the motion man on two snaps and Ja’Marr Chase utilized as the motion man on three snaps. Tee Higgins was never in motion as the X receiver. The snaps Burrow was under center mostly came in predictable situations. The offense is still almost entirely based out of shotgun, with route concepts and personnel alignment designed to generate isolation. Yea, nothing has changed in Zac Taylor’s offense, at least not based on what we saw in Week 1. Their first offensive touchdown of the day came with Higgins in the slot, who ran a quick out to isolate tight end Mike Gesicki inside, who fell into the end zone on a plodding slant. The next was a Chase Brown run from the green zone with Burrow under center. They would add a field goal before the half and three more after the break, and the scoop-and-score fumble recovery touchdown early in the game. That was it. Nothing overly inspiring. They turn the page to Week 2 in an interesting macro matchup against a Texans defense that blitzed about three times less in Week 1 but led the league in single-high utilization through a mix of Cover-1 and Cover-3. That last bit is interesting considering the Buccaneers finished Week 1 ranked second in single-high rate.

Lead back Chase Brown handled 73.3 percent of the backfield’s opportunities in Week 1 but managed just 3.5 yards per carry on 16 attempts. That should be expected against a run defense as stout as the Buccaneers. The problem is that the Texans are equally as strong against the run after holding the Bills to 4.1 yards per carry on the backs of a 2025 season in which they hold opponents to 3.9 yards per carry. Furthermore, the Texans filtered a middling 5.4 targets to opposing backfields a season ago. His level of involvement in the offense keeps his floor high but the matchup condenses the range of outcomes to the point that I won’t have much interest in Week 2.

Ja’Marr Chase against single-high since 2024: 32.43 percent TPRR, 2.74 YPRR, 0.66 FP/RR, 38.26 percent first-read target rate. You don’t need me to tell you Chase is elite, but those numbers are video-game-level elite. Furthermore, the Texans actually present an interesting matchup for the Bengals considering the static nature of their defense in Week 1. All of Derek Stingley Jr., Kamari Lassiter, and Jalen Pitre effectively played “sides,” or static positions on the field, within a defensive structure that played almost exclusively from single-high. Since Taylor is effectively aiming to generate one-on-one situations through the air through alignment and structure, it should be much easier for him to do that effectively against a more static defense. That was a lot of words to get to the conclusion that Chase carries immense upside in this spot, and I can’t currently say with certainty where his ownership will come in after disappointing massively against the Buccaneers. I have a hunch it’ll be much lower than it otherwise should be in this spot. Higgins and Mike Gesicki take meaningful backseats in underlying metrics against single-high, while Andrei Iosivas is mostly a “sacrificial-X” in this offense.

DFS+ INTERPRETATION::

Published Sep 18, 2026 · 9:51 PM ET

GAME OVERVIEW ::

• Jacksonville has won nine consecutive regular season games dating back to last season, including a 34-20 win over Denver in Week 16 of 2025.
• The Jaguars backfield was split fairly evenly in Week 1, although Bhayshul Tuten looked much more explosive and outperformed Chris Rodriguez Jr.
• The Broncos offense was an absolute train wreck in Week 1 against the Chiefs and now plays a strong Jaguars defense on a short week.
• The status of wide receiver Marvin Mims Jr. (foot) and running back RJ Harvey (hamstring) should be closely monitored heading into this week’s matchup with Jacksonville.
• Denver was one of only six teams to hold opponents under four yards per carry in 2025, but allowed the Chiefs to rip off nearly six yards per carry in Week 1.

HOW JACKSONVILLE WILL TRY TO WIN::

The Jaguars offense has been a well oiled machine for quite some time and the momentum with which they ended the 2025 season carried over into a dominant Week 1 victory over the downtrodden Browns. While it is easy to write that performance off because of the opponent, part of being a really good team is taking care of the teams you are supposed to take care of. The Jaguars were beaten handily by the Rams in Europe last October and had their bye week immediately after. Since then, they have a 10-1 regular season record and have averaged 32.9 points per game during that stretch – scoring at least 23 points in all 11 games and scoring at least 30 points in seven out of 11 games. That stretch includes a 34-20 victory in Denver last December where the Jaguars thoroughly controlled the Broncos.

Jacksonville continues to do a great job of keeping defenses on their heels. In their season opening win over the Browns, the Jaguars opening drive running plays on five of their first six plays. They followed that up by calling passing plays on 10 of their next 11 plays from scrimmage. Both of their first two drives ended in touchdowns and the Jaguars were quickly ahead 14-0 against a Browns team that showed basically zero offensive threat. Parker Washington seems to have emerged as the preferred target for quarterback Trevor Lawrence and led the team with six targets on 23 Lawrence pass attempts. Brian Thomas Jr. seems to have emerged as the second option in the passing game and through those first two drives Lawrence had nine pass attempts that were not throw-aways, with eight of them being directed at Washington or BTJ. The Jaguars spread things out a bit after that and BTJ had a minor shoulder issue that the team played it cautious with later on, but the team’s early usage and play calling seem to indicate those two as the primary receiving options. Washington ran 50% of this snaps from the slot and profiles as having the best matchup against the Broncos secondary, while BTJ and, to a lesser extent, Jakobi Meyers will have to deal with Pat Surtain II and company on the perimeter. Washington destroyed the Broncos to the tune of six receptions, 145 yards, and a touchdown when these teams met in December.

Jacksonville has good balance offensively and will test a Broncos defense that struggled to slow down the Kansas City rushing attack in Week 1. Bhayshul Tuten and Chris Rodriguez Jr. split the backfield, but Tuten was the more impressive runner and out-touched Rodriguez 16 to six. I would expect the Jaguars to continue riding Tuten going forward as his explosiveness and ability in space is an important dynamic to opening things up. The Broncos annually play man coverage at a rate near the top of the league, while the Browns last week played zone on over two-thirds of their snaps. Expect the Jaguars to mix up their play calling once again, but find balance in the aggregate. Their primary methods of moving the football will likely be the backfield and Washington, although they mix up personnel and formations well and will once again spread things around using scheme to cause confusion for a Broncos defense that wants to grind you out and win one-on-one matchups in the trenches and in coverage.

DFS+ Interpretations::

Published Sep 18, 2026 · 9:53 PM ET

GAME OVERVIEW ::

• Raiders RB Ashton Jeanty had a dominant Week 1 performance against the Dolphins and put to bed any concerns about the health of his ankle with 29 highly efficient touches.
• Tight end Brock Bowers will miss at least one more game, leaving Michael Mayer in a huge role. Mayer led the team in snap count among all RB/WR/TE in Week 1.
• Six wide receivers saw offensive snaps for the Raiders in Week 1 and none were targeted over five times in Week 1.
• The status of star Chargers WR Ladd McConkey is in question after he suffered a rib injury in Week 1 and has missed practice early in the week.
• The Chargers offense was arguably the most disappointing unit in the NFL in Week 1, turning the ball over twice, allowing three sacks, and scoring only 14 points against a middling Cardinals defense.

HOW LAS VEGAS WILL TRY TO WIN::

The Raiders debut game for new head coach Klint Kubiak went exceptionally well, as they dominated the Dolphins and gave their fans more to cheer about than they had in all of 2025. Everything starts with Ashton Jeanty, who appears to have the potential to be a league winning back this season after his ADP dropped into the second round due to a preseason injury scare. The Raiders are clearly riding their best offensive player, who touched the ball 29 times on 50 offensive snaps. Rookie RB Mike Washington Jr. is exciting in his own right, but his role at the moment is simply to spell Jeanty and even that role was split with Dylan Laube, who played 10 snaps without touching the ball. Kubiak came to Las Vegas from Seattle, where he ran an offense that was built around their running game and then used that to open up explosive plays.

If we know the Raiders are going to build their game plan around Jeanty, the question becomes what will be their primary method of passing the ball. Jeanty was a weapon in the passing game as well, but against teams besides Miami they will likely need more from their passing game. The Chargers got dusted up by Cardinals tight end Trey McBride in Week 1, but that isn’t necessarily indicative of a glaring “weakness” against the position as McBride is the league’s best at the position. That being said, Michael Mayer is in a full-time role while Brock Bowers is out and should once again see five to eight targets in the short to intermediate areas of the field. Mayer, newly acquired WR Jalen Nailor, and second year WR Jack Bech are the solid, dependable options that Kirk Cousins is likely to rely on in those areas of the field. The explosive plays are likely to come through the speedy Tre Tucker, whose role was relatively minor in Week 1 but will be necessary in more competitive situations. Tucker’s skill set is the one that can’t be replicated by others on the roster and I expect the Raiders to be dialing things up for him early in this one to open things up in the short to intermediate areas of the field. The Chargers struggled to get pressure on Jacoby Brissett last week, and it won’t be shocking if they increase their blitz rate against the statuesque Cousins. Kubiak will be tested more this week as the game plan will require more than “give it to Ashton and get out of the way,” but his overall philosophy, play calling, and usage splits are relatively predictable. Seattle had one of the league’s more explosive offenses and the Raiders had only one play of 20+ yards in Week 1 against a bad defense. They will need to find explosives early in this game to stay in control and maximize their win probability.

DFS+ Interpretation::

Published Sep 18, 2026 · 9:54 PM ET

GAME OVERVIEW ::

• Washington nearly pulled off a shocking fourth quarter comeback against the Eagles last week despite an exceedingly mediocre offensive performance in which.
• Both the backfield and receiving room are a nightmare to figure out right now for the Commanders.
• Commanders tight end Chig Okonkwo’s status is in question for this game after he sustained a hamstring injury in the season opener.
• The Cowboys offense struggled against the Giants on Sunday night, but benefitted massively from penalties.
• Dallas had only two possessions in the second half against New York as their defense struggled to get off the field all night.

HOW WASHINGTON WILL TRY TO WIN::

Football is a game of inches, they say. But really, football is a game of drives. This isn’t Madden, you can’t expect to be churning out 60-yard touchdowns. In order to score points, you need to move the ball gradually and get first downs. Obviously explosive plays are important as well, but at a foundational level if you can’t consistently get first downs then you can’t stay on the field long enough to make those explosive plays. That was the issue for Washington in Week 1 against an Eagles defense that shuts down the run and blankets the perimeter. This week the Commanders get a Cowboys defense that got gashed on the ground by the Giants and allowed New York to convert nine of 11 third down attempts. New York punted only once all night and, on the surface, this should be a spot where the Commanders are able to keep drives going much more regularly and, in turn, might actually be able to create some explosives.

The Commanders backfield is a bit of a mess. Jacory Croskey-Merritt and Rachaad White operated in basically an even split for almost the entire game, with JCM leading the team in carries and being featured on early downs while White was the passing downs and special situations back who mixed in on early downs occasionally. Then on their final drive of the game, when they were trying to force overtime, rookie Kaytron Allen got three carries without any reported injuries for JCM or White. Dicey at best, but the backs should be involved this week and find more success. Neither is likely to post a huge game, but the group should produce more touches and yards than they did against the Eagles and function more as a help to their offense’s success than they do to their own ability to post a big box score.

Through the air, Washington should also have much greater success away from the Eagles defense. Terry McLaurin is an above-average NFL receiver but isn’t equipped to win that matchup. Stefon Diggs should keep getting more comfortable in this offense. Rookie WR Antonio Williams looked terrific in Week 1 and his role should grow significantly, very quickly. Commanders tight end Chig Okonkwo is nursing a hamstring injury that kept him out of practice on Wednesday and the team doesn’t appear to have much trust at that position behind him. This should lead to increased chances for this underrated trio of receivers. Ultimately the offense’s success is going to fall primarily on the shoulders of QB Jayden Daniels. I expect Daniels and this offense as a whole to look much more functional in Week 2.

DFS+ Interpretation::

Published Sep 18, 2026 · 9:55 PM ET

GAME OVERVIEW ::

• Seattle escaped Week 1 with a home win over the Patriots but lost quarterback Sam Darnold for at least a couple of weeks. Drew Lock takes over and performed admirably in relief against New England.
• Jaxon Smith-Njigba once again dominated the team’s targets and had a massive Week 1 game, while everyone else fought for scraps.
• First round pick Jadarian Price passed the eye test in Week 1, but was splitting time with George Holani and the Seahawks appeared set to get Emanuel Wilson involved as their short yardage back.
• Arizona completed one of the more shocking upsets of Week 1 in Los Angeles over the Chargers behind strong play from their defense, QB Jacoby Brissett, and TE Trey McBride.
• The Cardinals appear to have three wide receivers involved in a relatively equal capacity, while the backfield was split very evenly between Tyler Allgeier and Jeremiyah Love.

HOW SEATTLE WILL TRY TO WIN::

The big news for the Seahawks in Week 1 was obviously the hip injury for QB Sam Darnold, who will miss at least this game and potentially more. In his absence, veteran QB Drew Lock filled in admirably and the Seattle offense looked largely the same to what we came to expect in 2025. All-world WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba had a massive 50% target share and accounted for 60% of the team’s receiving yards despite a difficult matchup with the Patriots secondary. The Seahawks backfield was once again split with Jadarian Price and George Holani rotating throughout the game, while Emanuel Wilson got involved in some short yardage work. Price looked significantly better than Holani, but the Seahawks are likely to continue to split things up similar to how they did last season with Zach Charbonnet and Kenneth Walker III.

Seattle’s offensive approach is very clear and has not changed much from last season’s Super Bowl run. They are a high volume rushing team that operates a passing attack that relies on efficiency and explosive plays, with that passing game focusing primarily on JSN and everyone else fitting into specific roles. Cooper Kupp made some nice plays in the opener, including a touchdown that was taken off the board due to an illegal shift, and in general looked better than he did for most of 2025 from an eye test perspective. Tight end AJ Barner is a legitimate threat, but volume can never be relied upon, while WR Rashid Shaheed’s touches are sporadic but he provides by far the most explosiveness in the passing game outside of JSN.

Seattle has a familiar opponent this week in divisional foe Arizona, who have a new head coach and offensive coaching staff but whose defensive coordinator, Nick Rallis, is a holdover from former head coach Jonathon Gannon’s staff. Arizona’s defense surprised many in Week 1 by shutting down the Chargers offense, although it is debatable how much of that was the Cardinals and how much was the Chargers poor execution. Arizona is not a team that gets much pressure on the quarterback and is a middling matchup on the ground. Expect Seattle to have some success running the ball and rookie Jadarian Price should improve on his debut performance as his role is likely to grow. The one bright spot for the Chargers against this Cardinals defense was Ladd McConkey torching them by moving all over the field and creating matchup problems. Expect JSN to have a field day in this one as well, with Arizona playing a high rate of zone coverage and ranking 5th in the league in cushion (how far their defensive backs play off the line of scrimmage). JSN should be getting free releases all day and create separation at will. As long as Lock can provide serviceable QB play, the Seahawks usual approach should stay intact.

DFS+ Interpretations::

Published Sep 18, 2026 · 9:56 PM ET

GAME OVERVIEW ::

• The Dolphins offense has major question marks, which was somewhat expected, after one game as they struggled to move the ball against a mediocre Raiders defense.
• QB Malik Willis had a mediocre game through the air, but salvaged his fantasy production with 39 rushing yards and a touchdown on the ground.
• Rookie WR Caleb Douglas was easily the team’s top receiving threat in Week 1 and, along with Malik Washington, played nearly every snap.
• The 49ers return from their trip across the world with 10 days of rest as they are coming off one of the more impressive Week 1 performances with their dominant win over the Rams.
• San Francisco lost TE Jake Tonges and WR De’Zhaun Stribling to major injuries in Week 1, which thrusts veterans TE George Kittle and WR Deebo Samuel Sr. into bigger roles than the team anticipated early in the season.

HOW MIAMI WILL TRY TO WIN::

Miami’s offense struggled in Week 1 and things don’t get any easier from here. After making things look very difficult against the Raiders, the Dolphins now face a healthy and talented 49ers defense that is coming off 10 days rest and dominated the Rams high-powered offense in the season opener in Australia. The Dolphins allowed five sacks and had two turnovers against Las Vegas, issues they will need to clean up if they want to have success in this game. Running back De’Von Achane is the best player on this offense, but struggled against the Raiders with only 66 total yards on 15 touches. Achane was targeted five times and involved in various ways, but it was clear that he is unlikely to have the same space to create big plays in this offense that he found with Mike McDaniel calling the shots.

The 49ers are a zone-heavy coverage unit, ranking in the bottom-10 of the league in man coverage rate for the last several seasons. They also blitz at a very low rate, instead relying on their front four to get pressure on opposing quarterbacks. This style of play, in theory, could make things more difficult for the Dolphins to move the ball as QB Malik Willis relies on his legs and the 49ers will have their defenders eyes on him often due to their low rate of man coverage (when they would turn their back on him). Likewise, the presence of LB Fred Warner should neutralize some of what Willis does on the ground. At full health, this 49ers defense is a problem. They held reigning MVP Matthew Stafford to the league’s second worst passing EPA per play in Week 1, while Willis finished the week only slightly ahead of Stafford. The schematic matchup is difficult and the road environment and personnel disadvantage Miami finds itself in leaves them with very few paths in this one, as evidenced by the nearly two-touchdown point spread. Willis and Achane will once again be relied upon heavily for Miami’s offense to move the ball, with dump offs to Achane and scrambles by Willis likely to be the main ways this team is able to get first downs. Rookie WR Caleb Douglas and veteran Malik Washington will need to make some plays in the receiving game if the Dolphins are going to stay in this game at all. The 49ers defense prevents opponents from creating explosive plays and Miami doesn’t have the vertical prowess to effectively challenge that. San Francisco is going to make them march the field and consistently gain positive yards, which will take a level of patience and execution that this Dolphins team might not be capable of.

DFS+ Interpretations::

Updated Sep 19, 2026 · 11:39 AM ET

BY XANDAMERE >>

Xandamere is one of the most respected and consistently dominant Showdown players in DFS, breaking down strategy thoughts and rules for every TNF, SNF, and MNF game

Published Sep 20, 2026 · 9:09 AM ET

BY XANDAMERE >>

Xandamere is one of the most respected and consistently dominant Showdown players in DFS, breaking down strategy thoughts and rules for every TNF, SNF, and MNF game