Saints (

17.75) at
Ravens (

26.75)

Published Sep 18, 2026 · 10:00 PM ET

HIBy HilowBioHide

ABOUT THE WRITER

Hilow is a tournament champion and game-theory specialist focused on mid- and high-stakes single-entry and three-max play. In the NFL Edge he maps how each team will try to win and where the clearest DFS leverage sits.

Go deeper: The Theory of Roster Construction→

GAME OVERVIEW::

• WR Chris Olave (hamstring) was added to the team’s injury report Thursday as a limited participant after getting in a full session Wednesday. To me, that means he was injured during Thursday’s session, introducing uncertainties surrounding his status against the Ravens.
• RB Alvin Kamara returned to full practices through two days of reporting and is expected to make his season debut.
• WR Zay Flowers was absent from practice on both Wednesday and Thursday after aggravating a hamstring injury early in the second half of the team’s win against the Colts. He appears highly unlikely to play against the Saints.
• The Saints, under Kellen Moore, have trailed by an average of 7.1 points at the half over the sample of 19 games.

HOW NEW ORLEANS WILL TRY TO WIN::

Kellen Moore continues to utilize pace and heavy pass rates as his primary weapon. The other components of his offense are uninspiring, at best. The Saints were near the middle of the pack in motion rate in Week 1 (57.5 percent) but were one of the few offenses holding the league-wide under-center rate and play action rate (15.9 percent) down in the first week of play. Situational tendencies, sequencing, and route structure remain an issue in this offense, which is one of the reasons I was handily underweight (as in, full fade) Travis Etienne in Best Ball. The pass catchers are another story because the offense is so concentrated and there is so much volume, with Devaughn Vele one of my highest exposure stances throughout the offseason. I don’t bring that up to toot my horn after one week of play, simply vocalize my read on this offense and how they operate. Which brings us back to Week 2. The Ravens have had a highly athletic, fast, and disciplined defense for some time, and they now get a defensive scheme upgrade with the introduction of head coach Jesse Minter to the equation. Minter brings a highly complex and varied system to Baltimore, one that is going to disguise coverages and alignments while forcing opponents to march the field, taking away the big plays in the process. In Week 1, his defense utilized exactly even rates of single-high and two-high, while not utilizing more than 21 percent of any one coverage. He was the only defensive play caller to utilize every single coverage, from Cover-0 to Cover-9, in Week 1. This is going to be a difficult nut for Moore to crack, and I don’t know if he’s up for the challenge, in all honesty. One final fun fact before we continue: Moore’s Saints averaged only 8.0 points in the first half of the 19 games since the start of 2025, while allowing 15.1 points in the first half. Said another way, the Saints are down by an average of a touchdown per game at the break over a 19-game sample. I would expect more of the same in this spot.

The team’s highly-paid newcomer in the backfield, Travis Etienne, did not handle the workload we expected entering the season, which was of particular concern considering the team was without veteran Alvin Kamara in Week 1. Etienne handled 58.1 percent of the backfield opportunities on a 59 percent snap rate, keeping him in “1A” territory and far from workhorse territory. Kendre Miller scored the lone backfield touchdown as the team made a feverish comeback to push the Lions into overtime, while CJ Donaldson also received snaps and opportunities. Expect Kamara to slide back into a primary passing situation role in his debut, posing an interesting question—does his return eat into Miller’s opportunity as the primary change of pace option or does Etienne’s workload suffer further? I don’t have a solid read on where that will land in this spot, but I have to question Etienne’s range of outcomes, regardless. The Ravens allowed 5.1 yards per carry against the Colts, which isn’t that farfetched considering those were accounted for by one of the great running backs in the league, after allowing 4.2 yards per carry the year prior. It’s a middling matchup on paper against a defense that will strive to keep eyes in the backfield.

This pass offense is already highly concentrated in the absence of Jordyn Tyson, and now we have concerns about the level of health of Chris Olave. Mid-week additions to the injury report are never good, especially for a key injury versus position. We never want to see ankles for running backs or hamstrings for wide receivers based on what those positions ask of their bodies on game day, and that is exactly what we have with Olave—the dreaded wide receiver hamstring. I don’t have a solid read on whether to expect him against the Ravens, but this passing game would condense even further than they already are should he miss. If that’s the case this weekend, Vele is not a player that is going to see his role materially altered into some downfield threat, likely leaving rookies Bryce Lance and Barion Brown to start on the perimeter. I would expect elevated rates of 12-personnel in that instance, with both Juwan Johnson and Noah Fant on the field at elevated rates. Volume would be most likely to concentrate on Vele and the tight ends with Olave out, considering the matchup and state of the available skill position players, making all three potential cost-considered values at current salary. Olave being able to go would obviously be a massive boost to the offense, with the schematic matchup a poor fit for how he is used in the offense.

DFS+ INTERPRETATION::