Kickoff Sunday, Sep 20th 1:00pm Eastern

Steelers (
18.5) at

Patriots (
23)

Over/Under 41.5

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Published Sep 18, 2026 · 9:44 PM ET

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IC LITE – NFL EDGE ::

GAME SETUP ::
  • Low total (41.5) with Patriots installed as comfortable home favorites at -5.5.
  • Steelers Week 1 style resembled McCarthy Cowboys: aggressive PROE, fast pace, downfield passing.
STEELERS PATH ::
  • Rodgers and Metcalf anchor a pass-first attack with top-10 pace and high intended air yards.
  • Dowdle and Warren split snaps nearly evenly, limiting both backs without an injury.

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Game Overview

  • The Patriots passing game weapons are among the least explosive in the league after the A.J. Brown injury
  • Rhamondre Stevenson was an every down player without TreVeyon Henderson. Henderson is practicing early in the week, but his status is unconfirmed.
  • The Patriots O-line is above average, but they are better at passing blocking than they are at run blocking
  • Drake Maye looked shaky in Week 1 and there is a chance he’s not as good as he appeared last season against a historically easy schedule.
  • The Steelers threw the ball a lot, threw it down the field, and played fast Week 1. Their play style looked like the McCarthy Cowboys.
  • Rico Dowdle and Jaylen Warren split the backfield nearly down the middle.
  • D.K. Metcalf saw 10 targets and he’s going to have a lot of double-digit target games if the Steelers keep playing like they did Week 1

How Pittsburgh Will Try to Win

The 1-0 Steelers got it done in the first game of the Mike McCarthy era. It’s hard to take much away from a win over Cooper Rush, but you must win the ones you’re supposed to win and those types of games were a problem throughout Mike Tomlin’s tenure. McCarthy has been a head coach before, but the Steelers have a new offensive coordinator in Brain Angelichio. Angelichio has over 15 years of coaching experience as a TEs coach. Angelichio worked with McCarthy for several years with the Packers, so he must have liked him during their time together. Their first game looked nothing like the Tomlin led Steelers of last year. They were aggressive (1st in PROE) and played fast (7th in seconds per play). The McCarthy/Rodgers offenses of the past were efficient, but operated at a notoriously slow pace, with prime Rodgers consistently using the entire play clock. The Steelers offense moved more like McCarthy’s Cowboys teams than his Rodgers led Packers squads. The Steelers weren’t just throwing and playing at pace, they were also attacking downfield. They had one of the highest intended air yards in the league, and Rodgers perceived conservative nature might have had more to do with Tomlin’s preferences than Rodgers deciding to be a check down king. Most encouraging, the top 10 seconds per play pace and aggressive play calling came in a game that was close, which indicates this play style is going to be the Steelers preference. If the Steelers play like the McCarthy Cowboys, there are going to be weeks when their passing game pieces take off.

The Steelers O-line is sold (12th ranked by PFF) and are a young unit on the rise. Center Zach Fraizer is on his way to being the best center in the league, and RT Dylan Cook who was a big question mark had an excellent Week 1 with a 95% pass blocking win rate. The Patriots were below average against the pass (24th in DVOA) and strong (7th in DVOA) against the run in Week 1. The Patriots’ defense was expected to be an above average unit and only gave up 13 points, albeit, against Drew Lock. The Patriots surrendered 5.2 YPC to Jadarian Price, and Jaxon Smith-Njigba hit them for a big game, but they’re coming home off an extended rest and should be considered a difficult matchup. It’s reasonable to assume the Steelers are going to play with an aggressive pass first mindset in competitive games. Nothing about the matchup should tilt the Steelers away from their preferred method of play, and at this point, it’s worth throwing out any preseason expectations. Believe what they showed Week 1. Expect the Steelers to play quickly and throw downfield.

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Inside The Game Flow

With A.J. Brown sidelined and Drake Maye under pressure, the Patriots-Steelers matchup hinges on key schematic advantages. The full breakdown covers how Pittsburgh’s secondary changes…

DFS+ Interpretation

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The Steelers Stack Decision

The Rodgers-to-Pittman connection, Stevenson’s workload pivot, and a specific game script scenario could reshape your lineup construction. The final read ties it all together.