Packers (

23.5) at
Jets (

20.5)

Published Sep 18, 2026 · 10:06 PM ET

HIBy HilowBioHide

ABOUT THE WRITER

Hilow is a tournament champion and game-theory specialist focused on mid- and high-stakes single-entry and three-max play. In the NFL Edge he maps how each team will try to win and where the clearest DFS leverage sits.

Go deeper: The Theory of Roster Construction→

GAME OVERVIEW::

• Matthew Golden led the Packers in YPRR and first-read target rate against Cover-2 in his rookie season and now finds himself in an every-down role, running the most routes of Green Bay pass-catchers, against an opponent that deployed Cover-2 at a 42.9 percent frequency in Week 1. He finished Week 1 with the second most xFP, amongst wide receivers.
• Jets rookie WR Omar Cooper Jr. did not practice Wednesday after departing the team’s Week 1 win over the Titans with an ankle injury.
• Matt LaFleur expertly demonstrated yet another way to lose a game he was controlling against the Vikings. Packers fans, we are far too familiar with this nonsense.
• OC Frank Reich finally gives the Jets a sense of structure and offensive purpose, things this franchise has been without for quite some time.

HOW GREEN BAY WILL TRY TO WIN::

The Packers have long been a methodical offense when it comes to generating personnel mismatches, something that has slowed down their pace of play since the arrival of Matt LaFleur in 2019. Not that what we saw in Week 1 completely throws that out of the window, but this team was much more firm when it comes to personnel groupings and alignments. The decreased emphasis on personnel substitutions to take advantage of situational micro-mismatches led to a significant three-second boost in pace of play against the Vikings, with more clearly defined roles in personnel. It’s much too early to label those slight alterations in the offense as trends or noise, and the absences of both Josh Jacobs and Savion Williams could have contributed to them, but it was worth noting as start moving into the “who can identify trends quicker” portion of the DFS season. Another significant change for this team entering 2026 is an offensive line that has continued to decline, which has been more of a trickle during the previous four-to-five years but is coming to a head. The Packers now “boast” a bottom-five offensive line across the board, which influences both the efficiency and design of the offense. For example, Jordan Love had the second quickest time to throw in Week 1, behind only Patrick Mahomes and that offense’s inability to generate anything downfield, and averaged the second fewest yards per rush attempt.

Chris Brooks and MarShawn Lloyd shared the backfield in a near-even split in Week 1, which I think had more to do with the insane blitz rates exhibited by Brian Flores’ Vikings defense than anything considering Brooks is far superior in protection. Lloyd led the way in opportunities with a 63.6 percent opportunity share to the 36.4 percent of Brooks, something more telling of expected usage moving forward for as long as Josh Jacobs remains on the commissioner exempt list. The Jets somehow allowed the hapless Titans to average 4.9 yards per carry but only faced 10 running back rush attempts. Consider it a plus matchup on paper for a team that isn’t likely to get many of those this season.

Nine non-running back players ran a route for the Packers in Week 1, something we have fully grown accustomed to in recent seasons. That said, only three players were in a route on more than 60 percent of Love’s dropbacks, and only Matthew Golden, Christian Watson, Jayden Reed, Tucker Kraft, and Jonnu Smith ran more than six total routes (Bo Melton). Gone are Dontayvion Wicks and Romeo Doubs and the only two wide receivers on the game-day roster outside of the top three were a practice squad call-up in Melton and a recent signee in Skyy Moore with Savion Williams on injured reserve. This pass game is going to be much more concentrated than in previous seasons and we’re likely to get additional pass volume considering the state of their backfield and offensive line. Piggybacking on that note is a quick stat drop – Golden left Week 1 with the second most expected fantasy points at wide receiver in the league, behind only Amon-Ra St. Brown. He saw three red zone targets and led the team in route participation as the prototypical X-type receiver, with Watson the Z, and Reed stuck in a near Y-only role. Golden is still priced at only $4,700 on DraftKings. Even in a quiet rookie season, Golden led the Packers in YPRR and first-read target rate against Cover-2, which the Jets deployed at a robust 42.9 percent frequency in Week 1.

DFS+ INTERPRETATION::