Jaguars (

21.5) at
Broncos (

24)

Published Sep 18, 2026 · 9:51 PM ET

MJBy MJohnsonBioHide

ABOUT THE WRITER

Mike Johnson has earned more than $500,000 in DFS profit across a wide range of tournament formats. He combines his background in coaching and finance with years of tournament experience to identify market inefficiencies in every matchup.

Go deeper: Building A Sharper Player Pool→

GAME OVERVIEW ::

• Jacksonville has won nine consecutive regular season games dating back to last season, including a 34-20 win over Denver in Week 16 of 2025.
• The Jaguars backfield was split fairly evenly in Week 1, although Bhayshul Tuten looked much more explosive and outperformed Chris Rodriguez Jr.
• The Broncos offense was an absolute train wreck in Week 1 against the Chiefs and now plays a strong Jaguars defense on a short week.
• The status of wide receiver Marvin Mims Jr. (foot) and running back RJ Harvey (hamstring) should be closely monitored heading into this week’s matchup with Jacksonville.
• Denver was one of only six teams to hold opponents under four yards per carry in 2025, but allowed the Chiefs to rip off nearly six yards per carry in Week 1.

HOW JACKSONVILLE WILL TRY TO WIN::

The Jaguars offense has been a well oiled machine for quite some time and the momentum with which they ended the 2025 season carried over into a dominant Week 1 victory over the downtrodden Browns. While it is easy to write that performance off because of the opponent, part of being a really good team is taking care of the teams you are supposed to take care of. The Jaguars were beaten handily by the Rams in Europe last October and had their bye week immediately after. Since then, they have a 10-1 regular season record and have averaged 32.9 points per game during that stretch – scoring at least 23 points in all 11 games and scoring at least 30 points in seven out of 11 games. That stretch includes a 34-20 victory in Denver last December where the Jaguars thoroughly controlled the Broncos.

Jacksonville continues to do a great job of keeping defenses on their heels. In their season opening win over the Browns, the Jaguars opening drive running plays on five of their first six plays. They followed that up by calling passing plays on 10 of their next 11 plays from scrimmage. Both of their first two drives ended in touchdowns and the Jaguars were quickly ahead 14-0 against a Browns team that showed basically zero offensive threat. Parker Washington seems to have emerged as the preferred target for quarterback Trevor Lawrence and led the team with six targets on 23 Lawrence pass attempts. Brian Thomas Jr. seems to have emerged as the second option in the passing game and through those first two drives Lawrence had nine pass attempts that were not throw-aways, with eight of them being directed at Washington or BTJ. The Jaguars spread things out a bit after that and BTJ had a minor shoulder issue that the team played it cautious with later on, but the team’s early usage and play calling seem to indicate those two as the primary receiving options. Washington ran 50% of this snaps from the slot and profiles as having the best matchup against the Broncos secondary, while BTJ and, to a lesser extent, Jakobi Meyers will have to deal with Pat Surtain II and company on the perimeter. Washington destroyed the Broncos to the tune of six receptions, 145 yards, and a touchdown when these teams met in December.

Jacksonville has good balance offensively and will test a Broncos defense that struggled to slow down the Kansas City rushing attack in Week 1. Bhayshul Tuten and Chris Rodriguez Jr. split the backfield, but Tuten was the more impressive runner and out-touched Rodriguez 16 to six. I would expect the Jaguars to continue riding Tuten going forward as his explosiveness and ability in space is an important dynamic to opening things up. The Broncos annually play man coverage at a rate near the top of the league, while the Browns last week played zone on over two-thirds of their snaps. Expect the Jaguars to mix up their play calling once again, but find balance in the aggregate. Their primary methods of moving the football will likely be the backfield and Washington, although they mix up personnel and formations well and will once again spread things around using scheme to cause confusion for a Broncos defense that wants to grind you out and win one-on-one matchups in the trenches and in coverage.

DFS+ Interpretations::