Game Overview ::
By mike johnson >>
- San Francisco looks to bounce back after an embarrassing loss to the Ravens in primetime on Monday night.
- The 49ers will be traveling across the country to play a game in the early window on a short week (one less day of rest).
- Washington has made the change from Sam Howell to Jacoby Brissett at quarterback after Howell imploded the last couple of weeks.
- Washington’s defense ranks last in the NFL against the pass for the season while also giving up more points per game to RBs than any other team since Week 9.
- The 49ers offense scoring 30+ points in this matchup is one of the highest confidence situations you will ever find.
How San Francisco Will Try To Win ::
The 49ers have been on a tear for most of this season, especially when healthy. Their tour de force was temporarily knocked off track last week against the Ravens as Baltimore dominated on both sides of the ball and derailed the Brock Purdy for MVP hype train. After throwing only seven interceptions through the first 14 games, Purdy threw four against the Ravens and was disrupted by their pressure and coverages all night. The 49ers are a high octane offense, but are also built to play in close games or with a lead. Once they fell behind and Purdy had been made uncomfortable by the Ravens defense, it was more or less a lost cause. Purdy left the game for the second time in as many weeks due to a shoulder stinger and was replaced by Sam Darnold. He did return to a full practice on Wednesday and should be fully expected to play this week in a mouth watering matchup. Perhaps the bigger concern for the 49ers offense is the status of all pro tackle Trent Williams, who left Monday’s game with a groin injury. His absence leaves them much more vulnerable to pressure up front, although this week that should be less of an issue than it was against the Ravens. The 49ers did lose two other offensive linemen to injuries on Monday, however, so their statuses should all be tracked heading into this week’s game.
The Commanders defense is about as soft as you will find in the NFL at this point. They have given up 28 or more points in seven of their last eight games, including each of their last six – during which they have surrendered an average of 34.7 points per game. The 49ers offense, on the other hand, has been dynamite when healthy. Last week against the Ravens was the first time that a fully healthy 49ers skill corps failed to score 27 points in a game this season. Of course, the Ravens boast the NFL’s #2 ranked DVOA defense while Washington enters Week 17 ranked #31 in the same category. This is also a defense that just gave up 30 points to the Jets – not an easy feat. Said another way, this is about as pristine of a bounce back spot as you could draw up for Brock Purdy and the 49ers.
Washington ranks 32nd in pass defense DVOA and has been torched repeatedly through the air this season. They also rank dead last in the NFL in fantasy points per game allowed to running backs since Week 9. Basically, the 49ers should be able to move the ball however they want this week. San Francisco’s offense operates with Christian McCaffrey as the centerpiece and utilizes Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, and George Kittle extensively to complement him in the passing game. Those four will account for approximately 80-90% of the team’s offensive usage for at least the first three quarters of any game that isn’t completely out of hand. CMC should have plenty of room to operate against a Washington defense that gave up a monster game to Breece Hall last week. Washington plays a high percentage of zone coverage, with two-high safeties being their predominant look. That type of coverage is best suited to be attacked by Deebo Samuel and George Kittle due to the types of routes they run and their run after catch ability. Not that Brandon Aiyuk is in a bad spot this week, but the tendencies would tend to point toward Deebo and Kittle for the big game in this spot. All that being said, there should be plenty to go around for a team looking to “get right” after their setback in Week 16. I would be more surprised if the 49ers scored under 30 points in this matchup than I would be if they scored over 45.
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