Game Overview ::
By hilow >>
- Patriots RB Ezekiel Elliott missed practice on Thursday with an illness after not appearing on the injury report Wednesday.
- Patriots WR JuJu Smith-Schuster was downgraded from limited to ‘DNP’ Thursday with his ankle injury.
- The Bills enjoy an almost entirely clean bill of health entering Week 17.
- Zeke has been a true workhorse back for the Patriots since Rhamondre Stevenson was lost for the season, handling opportunity counts of 23 (11 targets!), 17 (six targets), and 30 (eight targets!) in the last three games.
How new england Will Try To Win ::
The Patriots have resorted to starting quarterback Bailey Zappe over the last month of play. During that time, they’ve lost 6-0 to the Chargers, beat the Steelers 21-18 after being up 21-3 halfway through the second quarter, lost to the Chiefs 27-17, and beat the Broncos 26-23 on a last-second field goal as time expired after being up 23-7 entering the fourth quarter. That same four-game stretch has seen the team utilize a run-balanced approach on offense, holding a true 62 percent pass rate behind a 63 percent expected pass rate. There is no reason to expect a departure from that game plan, considering the state of this team in present form, leaving them with very little room for upside (both from a team perspective and an individual perspective).
This is now Ezekiel Elliott’s backfield. The veteran back has been a true workhorse over the previous three games since Rhamondre Stevenson was lost for the season, handling snap rates of 91, 87, and 83 percent while seeing opportunity counts of 23 (11 targets!), 17 (six targets), and 30 (eight targets!) during that time. Zeke did miss practice on Thursday with an illness after not being present on the team’s injury report Wednesday, but I’d expect him to play in Week 17. Kevin Harris has stepped into the primary change of pace role, seeing 13 and 17 percent of the offensive snaps in the previous two games. The Bills rush defense remains an enigma, allowing 4.6 yards per carry (27th) but ceding just 1.14 yards before contact (10th). The bulk of that damage has come via explosive runs allowed, which Zeke is less capable of at this point in his career (one breakaway run on 157 carries and a low 15.8 percent juke rate).
Tight end Hunter Henry appears set to return from a one-game absence after consecutive limited sessions to start the week. With Henry healthy, this offense utilizes extreme rates of 12-personnel, which is likely also influenced by the multitude of injuries they have suffered at wide receiver this season. JuJu Smith-Schuster and DeVante Parker have been in and out of the lineup all season, Demario Douglas has missed three games, and Kendrick Bourne was lost for the season in Week 8. We should see another game with Parker, Douglas, and Jalen Reagor as the primary wide receivers with increased rates of 12-personnel, assuming Smith-Schuster misses and Henry returns. Either way, the Bills have held opponents to just 5.4 net yards per pass attempt and have ceded 17 total passing scores while generating 13 interceptions. Douglas is theoretically the best on-paper play from this ragtag bunch, but his upside is rather lacking on a 7.9 aDOT.
You must be logged in to view collective notes about a game.
You must be logged in to add notes about a game.