Game Overview ::
By hilow>>
- The Titans had 16 players on their Wednesday practice report, but all 16 were listed as limited or full participants.
- The Texans had 14 players on their Wednesday practice report, with eight of those listed as ‘DNP’ including three starting members of their defensive line (Maliek Collins, Will Anderson, and Jonathan Greenard) and two starting members of their offensive line (Laremy Tunsil and Shaq Mason).
- Texans QB C.J. Stroud returned to a limited session Wednesday, indicating he has finally cleared the first step in the league’s concussion protocol (no more headaches). That also places him on track to return from a two game absence, assuming he does not experience any setbacks.
- Texans WRs Nico Collins (calf), Noah Brown (knee), and Robert Woods (not injury related – rest) all practiced in a limited fashion Wednesday and appear likely to play on Sunday.
- The Titans have been mathematically eliminated from the playoffs while the Texans currently sit in the eighth seed in the AFC, tied in record with the Colts, Steelers, and Bengals.
How tennessee Will Try To Win ::
Almost nothing has changed regarding how the Titans will try to win games this season, or over the previous three seasons, for that matter. They’re going to start the game with an extremely run heavy attack and a slow pace, aiming to shorten the game and “win dirty” late. That has been the modus operandi for this team for quite some time now. That said, that game plan has been more susceptible to matchup than in previous seasons due to a stark decline in talent along their offensive line, which has translated to some pretty insane game logs this season. Yes, we’re referring to the 20 touch, 10 yard performance from Derrick Henry the last time these two teams met just two weeks ago. That is also reinforced by looking at the recent pass attempt values from rookie quarterback Will Levis (who appears to be on track to return from a one-game absence due to an ankle injury). Levis has attempted 26, 38, 33, 28, and 17 passes in his last five starts, with all but one of those games decided by seven points or less. But that’s the thing, this defense continues to play at a level that keeps their team in games this season, taking the “bend but don’t break” Bill Belichick-ian methods to new heights while allowing a touchdown on just 38.18 percent of opposing red zone trips (second in the league).
As we’ve talked about for the better part of the previous four seasons, Derrick Henry is going to see touches in close games. That is the driving force behind his volume – not matchup and not game total. If the game is close, the Titans will feed their King. That has not changed in 2023, although the team has experienced massive turnover along their offensive line and so now they are not capable of dictating game environments through brute force. Look at the last meeting between these two teams. The game was close throughout and ended up going into overtime, where Henry finished with 20 touches (16 carries and four receptions) but managed a historically poor 10 yards gained from scrimmage. But the game was close, so Henry saw his touches. The Titans have played nine games since their Week 7 bye, during which time rookie running back Tyjae Spears has out-snapped Henry in five games while playing no fewer than 40 percent of the team’s offensive snaps. In other words, Spears is going to be involved. Spears has just one game of double-digit carries and has scored just one touchdown, but his robust pass game role has led to 15 or more running back opportunities in three of his previous five games played. The pure matchup on the ground is poor against a Texans defense ceding just 3.3 yards per carry (second) behind the fewest yards allowed before contact (0.95).
The Tennessee pass offense has become slightly more concentrated of late but a lot of that has been out of necessity, with Nick Westbrook-Ikhine missing Week 16 and subsequently being placed on injured reserve, and tight ends Trevon Wesco and Josh Whyle missing game recently. That said, Whyle returned from injury in Week 16 but didn’t see an offensive snap, so this could be a case of intent as well. Expect modest pass volume with DeAndre Hopkins, Chris Moore, Treylon Burks, and tight end Chigoziem Okonkwo serving as the primary options through the air in sub-elite snap rate roles. True to form with this offense, only Hopkins has sniffed double-digit looks throughout the season (Okonkwo has one game over six targets, Burks has one game over just four targets, Moore has not seen more than four targets all year), doing so on five separate occasions and returning a GPP-viable score three times. That makes things rather easy here – can Hopkins see double-digit looks, and if not, nobody is GPP-viable.
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