Game Overview ::
By hilow >>
- Saints RB Kendre Miller (ankle) got in two limited sessions to start the week following six straight missed contests.
- Saints WR Chris Olave (ankle) also got in two limited sessions to begin the practice week.
- Buccaneers CB Carlton Davis (concussion) is still not practicing following his concussion.
- The Saints have had the sixth-largest dropoff in rush defense EPA over the last four games when compared to the first 11 weeks of the season, ranking 30th in rush defense EPA over the previous four weeks.
- The Buccaneers currently hold a game in hand over the Saints for the NFC South title. A win by the Saints in Week 17 would still require a win in Week 18 with a loss by the Buccaneers to head to the playoffs.
How new orleans Will Try To Win ::
The Saints have largely hovered right around league average in pass rate over expectation (PROE) all season, with their two outlier games this season falling well below league average PROE values. Furthermore, their 22.1 points per game (13th), 19.8 points allowed per game (ninth), 36.3 pass attempts per game (ninth), and 27.3 rush attempts per game (13th) all rank around league average this season. In other words, this Saints team is around league average in most statistical categories this season – entirely unremarkable – which makes a lot of sense when taken under the umbrella of their 7-8 record. That said, this game is the Saints’ season. They must win out and still get some help to make the postseason. That adds a level of desperation to this team in this spot, something that ideally could force them into increased pass rates earlier rather than later in the right environment.
The New Orleans backfield is relatively face up at this point in the season. Expect a near-even split in snap rate between Alvin Kamara and Jamaal Williams in tightly contested-to-positive game environments, while it’s Kamara that sees an increase in snap rate in negative game environments. Even so, Williams has seen double-digit running back opportunities in just one game where both backs were healthy this season and now must contend with the likely return of rookie running back Kendre Miller after his extended absence. The Buccaneers have slipped slightly in rush defense EPA of late but still remain a difficult matchup on the ground, dropping from second in that metric over the first 11 weeks of the season to 11th over the previous four weeks. On the season, the Buccaneers have ceded just 3.9 yards per carry and 18.1 DraftKings points per game to opposing backfields. Finally, the Bucs have allowed just seven total touchdowns to opposing backfields in 2023. In other words, this is not an ideal spot for Saints running backs.
Not much has changed regarding how the Buccaneers have played defense from earlier in the season, blitzing at the league’s third-highest rate while playing almost exclusively Cover-1 and Cover-3 behind it. As we’ve talked about in the past, those two coverage shells typically allow an increased rate of first-read targets, and a solid chunk of those first-read targets this season have gone to Olave. Olave has seen eight or more targets in all but three games this year, piercing double-digits six times. He is still playing sub-elite snap rates but has been in a route at a non-terrible 94.6 percent clip on dropbacks this season. He has also been absolutely elite against man coverage, seeing a 31 percent target rate against that primary coverage shell in 2023. He should be joined by Rashid Shaheed, A.T. Perry, and tight end Juwan Johnson as the primary pass catchers, none of whom are overly likely to command targets the way Olave can and should.
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