Game Overview ::
By hilow >>
- Only three players have yet to practice (as of Wednesday) for the Browns – WR Amari Cooper (NIR – rest, heel), K Dustin Hopkins (hamstring), and WR Cedric Tillman (concussion). I currently expect Cooper to play with no limitations, Hopkins to miss with his hamstring injury (a non-negligible loss considering Hopkins is 33-for-36 in FG attempts this season; Riley Patterson would kick if Hopkins can’t), and Tillman will likely need a practice in some fashion on Thursday to play.
- Texans DE Will Anderson (ankle) and WR Noah Brown (back) have not practiced this week. WR Nico Collins (hip) went ‘DNP’ – limited through Wednesday.
- Browns WR Elijah Moore is notably absent from the team’s injury report entirely after his scary concussion in Week 17 that led to convulsions on the field.
- The Browns-Texans game pits two pass-capable offenses against two very clear pass-funnel defenses.
- Houston ranks first in yards allowed before contact on the ground (0.93), and Cleveland ranks second (1.00)
How cleveland Will Try To Win ::
The Browns had one game all season with a positive PROE before Joe Flacco. In the six games Flacco started for the Browns at the end of the season, the team held a positive PROE value in every. Single. Game. Joe Flacco attempted 42 or more passes in all but one of the five Flacco starts, with the only outlier being a 37-20 win over the hapless Jets in Week 17. To say that the Browns completely flipped their offensive game plan on its head is a vast understatement, which is an interesting realization as this game currently carries the week’s lowest spread. In other words, we should expect the Browns to let Flacco sling it around the yard when the game is close, and this game projects to be close throughout. On the season, the Browns ranked 13th in points allowed per game at 21.3 but slipped to end the season, allowing 26.0 points per game over their final seven contests (Broncos, Rams, Jaguars, Bears, Texans, Jets, and Bengals). This could result from more possessions and more offensive plays run from scrimmage in those games as the team began passing at a much higher rate.
The Cleveland backfield has remained a frustrating three-headed timeshare through the macro shift in offensive philosophy with Flacco under center, with Jerome Ford leading the way but not playing more than 43 percent of the offensive snaps in any of the previous three games. His snap rates in the first three Flacco starts were 51, 57, and 51 percent, meaning he did not see more than 57 percent of the offensive snaps with Flacco at quarterback. Furthermore, his opportunity counts in those six games were 12, 18, 13, 17, 15, and six (a meaningless Week 18 game). In other words, Ford is highly likely to see 12-15 opportunities with slight upside for a smidge more, but is highly unlikely to see 20+ opportunities here. Kareem Hunt plays enough to be a nuisance but not enough to carry true fantasy value, with the likeliest range of opportunities being 10-12. The matchup on the ground is as difficult as they come against a Texans defense holding opposing backfields to 3.5 yards per carry behind the fewest yards allowed before contact in the league. Pierre Strong will likely be involved in some capacity, albeit with a much lower expected range of opportunities.
Wide receiver Amari Cooper played three fully healthy games with Joe Flacco at the end of the season (left early with a concussion in Week 13 and missed Weeks 17 and 18). He averaged 12.3 targets per game in those contests, which narrowly edged out CeeDee Lamb (12.0) for the most targets per game over the final five weeks of the 2023 regular season. Furthermore, tight end David Njoku averaged 9.0 targets per game during the final six weeks of the regular season (the games played with Flacco), which ranked second in the league amongst tight ends during that span (Evan Engram averaged 10.2 with Christian Kirk out). For comparison, Travis Kelce averaged 6.6 targets per game over the final six weeks of the regular season, Sam LaPorta averaged 7.2, and George Kittle averaged 5.8. In the three games with all of Flacco, Cooper, and Njoku on the field to end the season, Joe Flacco averaged 43.67 pass attempts per game, while the combination of Cooper and Njoku averaged 22.67 targets per game. Said a different way, Cooper and Njoku combined for a tidy 51.9 percent target market share in the three games where both were healthy with Joe Flacco under center. Considering Flacco attempted 42 or more passes in every game that wasn’t against the Jets (the Browns won 37-20) while under center for the Browns, there is significant upside in this pairing (but you already knew that because we hammered it in Week 15 and Week 16) against a Texans team that should push the Browns. Remember, this game carries the tightest spread of the weekend (Browns -2.0). Rookie wide receiver David Bell served as the WR4 to end the season, meaning he should be next in line for meaningful snaps with Cedric Tillman (concussion) ruled out. The WR3 role translated to anywhere between 60 percent and 90 percent of the offensive snaps to end the season, depending on game flow and personnel groupings. Elijah Moore is completely absent from the team’s injury report for the Super Wildcard Round and should be a full-go.
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