Game Overview ::
By mike johnson >>
- Matthew Stafford and the Rams surprised a lot of people this season and now head into his former home of Detroit for the Lions’ first home playoff game in 30 years.
- Lions quarterback Jared Goff has been substantially better at home and in domes throughout his career.
- Goff is also one of the most pressure-sensitive QBs in the league,and the Rams defense ranks 28th in the NFL in QB pressure rate.
- The Lions’ pass defense has been getting shredded recently and will have their hands full with Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp.
- Both of these offenses are run-based, yet are aggressive offensively with potent passing attacks.
- Lions rookie sensation tight end Sam LaPorta’s status is in question after a knee injury suffered in their Week 18 victory over the Vikings.
How LOS ANGELES Will Try To Win ::
The Rams have surprised many people with their playoff run this season and have been carried by their strong offensive core. At the heart of the offense has been Stafford, who has been playing lights out this season after rumors of a potential retirement followed him into last offseason. Kupp has been solid throughout the season, even if he hasn’t performed at the elite level he had played at in the past couple of seasons. Meanwhile, it was two newcomers in second-year running back Kyren Williams and rookie sensation Nacua who really put this offense over the top. The Rams are a team with some veterans who were on their Super Bowl team from a couple years ago but are relying on a lot of young players in their return to the postseason.
The Rams’ offense gets a lot of attention for its passing attack due to the high-profile nature of Stafford and Kupp, along with the dynamic season that Nacua has had seemingly out of nowhere. However, their offense is built primarily around their running game, with their passing concepts built as extensions off of that. Said another way, the Rams are a very potent passing offense, but their offense is not designed in a way where they can just come out firing on every play and dice up a defense, regardless of the matchup. This is an important thing to understand as this week’s opponent, Detroit, has a very good run defense but has been shredded through the air this season. The Rams rank 18th in the NFL in pass rate over expectation (PROE), throwing the ball at a 2.1% lower rate than their game scripts would predict. The Lions blitz at the 10th-highest rate in the NFL and lead the league in QB pressure rate. Detroit also plays man coverage at a top-10 rate in the league. Matthew Stafford has historically been very good against the blitz and this season has been no different, as he sees things extremely well pre-snap and is able to make checks and get the ball where it needs to go. Stafford ranks ninth in the NFL in PFF grade when under pressure.
The Rams’ offense is likely to take some time to get things going in this one as their running game is unlikely to find big holes early in the game, but they have to stick with it to open up their playbook as the game progresses. Los Angeles will stick with its game plan early in this one and trust Stafford to convert some third-down throws to extend drives and give the Rams a chance to put points on the board. The Rams play at a middling pace and are likely to be focused on gaining a few first downs and calming down what is sure to be a raucous Ford Field crowd early in the game. The Rams’ offense is relatively condensed, with Williams, Kupp and Nacua being the focal points of almost everything they do. We should expect Williams to be heavily used on the ground and through the air on early downs, with Kupp and Nacua put in motion often and given space through play designs and formations that allow them to attack Detroit’s beatable corners in man coverage. Lions rookie slot corner Brian Branch has been outstanding this season and the Rams will likely look to shake their top receivers open through the use of motion and/or stacking them together to create free releases.
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