Game Overview ::
By Hilow >>
- The Dolphins are rather beat up in the secondary, with CB Xavien Howard (foot) ruled out and S DeShone Elliott (calf) and S Jevon Holland (knees) listed questionable after failing to practice all week.
- WR Justyn Ross (hamstring) and WR Kadarius Toney (hip/ankle) are listed as questionable for the Chiefs after each managing limited sessions this week.
- Temperatures in Kansas City are expected to be sub-zero at kickoff and dropping throughout the game, with 10-15 mph winds making it feel like minus 20 to minus 30 degrees.
How miami Will Try To Win ::
First of all, the Miami defense is beat to shit. Cornerback Xavien Howard has been ruled out, which means perennial target magnet Eli Apple should get significant run. Both starting safeties are questionable after not practicing at all this week. The team placed three linebackers on season-ending injured reserve on Wednesday, including standout Andrew Van Ginkel, signing veterans Justin Houston and Bruce Irvin off their couch to play significant snaps in the playoffs. And then there’s the offense. All of Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, Raheem Mostert, and De’Von Achane were on the injury report in some form or another this week, with Mostert and Waddle listed as questionable after a week of limited sessions, Hill off the injury report after a week of limited sessions, and only Achane managing a full practice at any point this week (also off the injury report). And now this banged-up team has to go into Arrowhead in sub-zero temperatures and take on the stingy defense of the Chiefs, all after averaging just 18.3 points per game over their last three contests (22 against the Cowboys in Week 16, 19 against the Ravens in a blowout loss in Week 17, and 14 against the Bills in a Week 18 loss to drop to the six-seed). We know how dangerous this offense can be when it has all of its primary components, but we’ve also been recently reminded of how much it can struggle when some of those pieces are banged up. I used the last three games as our cutoff when I brought up the fact that this team had managed just 18.3 points per game recently for a very specific reason – both Mostert and Waddle were injured in Week 16 and missed the following two games.
Raheem Mostert and De’Von Achane have played only six fully healthy games together in 2023, with only three of those games occurring since Week 5. From Week 13 to Week 15, Mostert averaged 17 opportunities per game, while Achane averaged 16.33. Their snap rates went 36, 64, 54 percent for Mostert and 61, 46, 39 percent for Achane. Both Week 13 and Week 15 were blowout wins, while the team played to a 28-27 loss to the Titans in Week 14. Then add in the fact that Mostert missed the previous two games and there is very little certainty surrounding how this backfield is likeliest to shake out this week. The only thing we can say with a high degree of certainty is that Jeff Wilson is unlikely to be heavily involved with both Mostert and Achane active (played a combined 14 offensive snaps from Week 13 to Week 15). The matchup on the ground is middling against a Chiefs defense allowing 4.3 yards per carry but just 1.27 yards before contact per carry.
The combination of Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle is nothing short of a dynamic duo. That is when both are healthy. Mike McDaniel can put a ridiculous amount of pressure on opposing defenses with two players with the speed and technical route abilities these two players possess. Whether or not both are healthy and whether or not the cold will affect them throughout the game remains to be seen, but there are no better wide receiver duos in the league strictly for the space they can create in this offensive scheme. Enter Steve Spagnuolo, who is both intimately familiar with Cheetah and with designing a defensive scheme to limit explosive plays. In other words, Mike McDaniel will have his work cut out for him here. It really doesn’t matter what other tertiary pass-catchers see snaps in this offense as it is simply concentrated on the running backs, Hill and Waddle, but it should be Cedrick Wilson running as the three with Braxton Berrios in a situational role and Durham Smythe in a “stand around and be big” tight end role (obviously kidding, but he’s such a small part of this offense).
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