Game Overview ::

By hilow >>

• Only three players have yet to practice (as of Wednesday) for the Browns – WR Amari Cooper (NIR – rest, heel), K Dustin Hopkins (hamstring), and WR Cedric Tillman (concussion). I currently expect Cooper to play with no limitations, Hopkins to miss with his hamstring injury (a non-negligible loss considering Hopkins is 33-for-36 in FG attempts this season; Riley Patterson would kick if Hopkins can’t), and Tillman will likely need a practice in some fashion on Thursday to play.
• Texans DE Will Anderson (ankle) and WR Noah Brown (back) have not practiced this week. WR Nico Collins (hip) went ‘DNP’ – limited through Wednesday.
• Browns WR Elijah Moore is notably absent from the team’s injury report entirely after his scary concussion in Week 17 that led to convulsions on the field.
• The Browns-Texans game pits two pass-capable offenses against two very clear pass-funnel defenses.
• Houston ranks first in yards allowed before contact on the ground (0.93), and Cleveland ranks second (1.00)

How cleveland Will Try To Win ::

The Browns had one game all season with a positive PROE before Joe Flacco. In the six games Flacco started for the Browns at the end of the season, the team held a positive PROE value in every. Single. Game. Joe Flacco attempted 42 or more passes in all but one of the five Flacco starts, with the only outlier being a 37-20 win over the hapless Jets in Week 17. To say that the Browns completely flipped their offensive game plan on its head is a vast understatement, which is an interesting realization as this game currently carries the week’s lowest spread. In other words, we should expect the Browns to let Flacco sling it around the yard when the game is close, and this game projects to be close throughout. On the season, the Browns ranked 13^th in points allowed per game at 21.3 but slipped to end the season, allowing 26.0 points per game over their final seven contests (Broncos, Rams, Jaguars, Bears, Texans, Jets, and Bengals). This could result from more possessions and more offensive plays run from scrimmage in those games as the team began passing at a much higher rate.

The Cleveland backfield has remained a frustrating three-headed timeshare through the macro shift in offensive philosophy with Flacco under center, with Jerome Ford leading the way but not playing more than 43 percent of the offensive snaps in any of the previous three games. His snap rates in the first three Flacco starts were 51, 57, and 51 percent, meaning he did not see more than 57 percent of the offensive snaps with Flacco at quarterback. Furthermore, his opportunity counts in those six games were 12, 18, 13, 17, 15, and six (a meaningless Week 18 game). In other words, Ford is highly likely to see 12-15 opportunities with slight upside for a smidge more, but is highly unlikely to see 20+ opportunities here. Kareem Hunt plays enough to be a nuisance but not enough to carry true fantasy value, with the likeliest range of opportunities being 10-12. The matchup on the ground is as difficult as they come against a Texans defense holding opposing backfields to 3.5 yards per carry behind the fewest yards allowed before contact in the league. Pierre Strong will likely be involved in some capacity, albeit with a much lower expected range of opportunities.

Wide receiver Amari Cooper played three fully healthy games with Joe Flacco at the end of the season (left early with a concussion in Week 13 and missed Weeks 17 and 18). He averaged 12.3 targets per game in those contests, which narrowly edged out CeeDee Lamb (12.0) for the most targets per game over the final five weeks of the 2023 regular season. Furthermore, tight end David Njoku averaged 9.0 targets per game during the final six weeks of the regular season (the games played with Flacco), which ranked second in the league amongst tight ends during that span (Evan Engram averaged 10.2 with Christian Kirk out). For comparison, Travis Kelce averaged 6.6 targets per game over the final six weeks of the regular season, Sam LaPorta averaged 7.2, and George Kittle averaged 5.8. In the three games with all of Flacco, Cooper, and Njoku on the field to end the season, Joe Flacco averaged 43.67 pass attempts per game, while the combination of Cooper and Njoku averaged 22.67 targets per game. Said a different way, Cooper and Njoku combined for a tidy 51.9 percent target market share in the three games where both were healthy with Joe Flacco under center. Considering Flacco attempted 42 or more passes in every game that wasn’t against the Jets (the Browns won 37-20) while under center for the Browns, there is significant upside in this pairing (but you already knew that because we hammered it in Week 15 and Week 16) against a Texans team that should push the Browns. Remember, this game carries the tightest spread of the weekend (Browns -2.0). Rookie wide receiver David Bell served as the WR4 to end the season, meaning he should be next in line for meaningful snaps with Cedric Tillman (concussion) ruled out. The WR3 role translated to anywhere between 60 percent and 90 percent of the offensive snaps to end the season, depending on game flow and personnel groupings. Elijah Moore is completely absent from the team’s injury report for the Super Wildcard Round and should be a full-go.

How houston Will Try To Win ::

Game Overview ::

By Hilow >>

• The Dolphins are rather beat up in the secondary, with CB Xavien Howard (foot) ruled out and S DeShone Elliott (calf) and S Jevon Holland (knees) listed questionable after failing to practice all week.
• WR Justyn Ross (hamstring) and WR Kadarius Toney (hip/ankle) are listed as questionable for the Chiefs after each managing limited sessions this week.
• Temperatures in Kansas City are expected to be sub-zero at kickoff and dropping throughout the game, with 10-15 mph winds making it feel like minus 20 to minus 30 degrees.

How miami Will Try To Win ::

First of all, the Miami defense is beat to shit. Cornerback Xavien Howard has been ruled out, which means perennial target magnet Eli Apple should get significant run. Both starting safeties are questionable after not practicing at all this week. The team placed three linebackers on season-ending injured reserve on Wednesday, including standout Andrew Van Ginkel, signing veterans Justin Houston and Bruce Irvin off their couch to play significant snaps in the playoffs. And then there’s the offense. All of Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, Raheem Mostert, and De’Von Achane were on the injury report in some form or another this week, with Mostert and Waddle listed as questionable after a week of limited sessions, Hill off the injury report after a week of limited sessions, and only Achane managing a full practice at any point this week (also off the injury report). And now this banged-up team has to go into Arrowhead in sub-zero temperatures and take on the stingy defense of the Chiefs, all after averaging just 18.3 points per game over their last three contests (22 against the Cowboys in Week 16, 19 against the Ravens in a blowout loss in Week 17, and 14 against the Bills in a Week 18 loss to drop to the six-seed). We know how dangerous this offense can be when it has all of its primary components, but we’ve also been recently reminded of how much it can struggle when some of those pieces are banged up. I used the last three games as our cutoff when I brought up the fact that this team had managed just 18.3 points per game recently for a very specific reason – both Mostert and Waddle were injured in Week 16 and missed the following two games.

Raheem Mostert and De’Von Achane have played only six fully healthy games together in 2023, with only three of those games occurring since Week 5. From Week 13 to Week 15, Mostert averaged 17 opportunities per game, while Achane averaged 16.33. Their snap rates went 36, 64, 54 percent for Mostert and 61, 46, 39 percent for Achane. Both Week 13 and Week 15 were blowout wins, while the team played to a 28-27 loss to the Titans in Week 14. Then add in the fact that Mostert missed the previous two games and there is very little certainty surrounding how this backfield is likeliest to shake out this week. The only thing we can say with a high degree of certainty is that Jeff Wilson is unlikely to be heavily involved with both Mostert and Achane active (played a combined 14 offensive snaps from Week 13 to Week 15). The matchup on the ground is middling against a Chiefs defense allowing 4.3 yards per carry but just 1.27 yards before contact per carry.

The combination of Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle is nothing short of a dynamic duo. That is when both are healthy. Mike McDaniel can put a ridiculous amount of pressure on opposing defenses with two players with the speed and technical route abilities these two players possess. Whether or not both are healthy and whether or not the cold will affect them throughout the game remains to be seen, but there are no better wide receiver duos in the league strictly for the space they can create in this offensive scheme. Enter Steve Spagnuolo, who is both intimately familiar with Cheetah and with designing a defensive scheme to limit explosive plays. In other words, Mike McDaniel will have his work cut out for him here. It really doesn’t matter what other tertiary pass-catchers see snaps in this offense as it is simply concentrated on the running backs, Hill and Waddle, but it should be Cedrick Wilson running as the three with Braxton Berrios in a situational role and Durham Smythe in a “stand around and be big” tight end role (obviously kidding, but he’s such a small part of this offense). 

How kansas city Will Try To Win ::

Game Overview ::

By mike johnson >>

• What an opening weekend matchup as the Packers come into town as a somewhat surprising playoff team in Jordan Love’s first season as a starter and hoping to put an end to former head coach Mike McCarthy’s magical season in Dallas.
• The Packers offense is filled with playmakers and will likely need to be aggressive to keep up in this one.
• The Dallas offense has been elite this season, particularly since shifting to a more aggressive offensive mindset after their bye week.
• The Cowboys have been held under 30 points at home only once all season (Week 17 against the Lions).
• Green Bay has won six of their last eight games to sneak into the playoffs.
• This game features two quarterbacks who finished the season ranked first and second in the NFL in passing touchdowns.

How green bay Will Try To Win ::

The Packers rank 11th in pass rate over expectation (PROE) but have progressed to a more aggressive offense over the course of the season. Jordan Love has been rolling and finished the season ranked in the top 10 in the NFL in several key passing statistics, including yards, touchdowns, QB rating, and adjusted yards per attempt. Love also ranks 5th in average intended air yards per attempt, as he has been cutting it loose downfield all season and trusting his young receivers to make plays on the ball. The Packers have also been pushed to a more pass heavy attack in recent weeks due to injuries in their backfield as star running back Aaron Jones missed several games and AJ Dillon has missed time and has been battling multiple injuries for several weeks now. 

The Packers should enter Dallas on Sunday feeling confident in their ability to be competitive but they must be realistic about their defensive limitations and the firepower of their opponent. It is important that the Packers get out to a good start offensively, as the Dallas defense has devoured teams when they are able to build a big lead this year. Love’s biggest weakness may be his struggle against teams who are able to create pressure while leaving a lot of defenders in coverage. Love does rank 6th in PFF passing grade when under pressure, but that is in large part due to him doing well against some weaker defenses that were blitzing him when the game was close or Green Bay had a lead. This Dallas defense has great pass rushers and when they get a lead where they can pin their ears back and get after the quarterback, they are able to generate a ton of pressure without giving easy reads to the quarterback. Several weeks ago the Bills showed how vulnerable the Cowboys defense can be to a solid rushing attack and also how much less potent their defense is when they are not in control of the game’s tempo. 

Early offensive success will be critical for Green Bay and we should expect Aaron Jones to be heavily involved in the game plan as the Packers look to keep the chains moving, neutralizing the Dallas pass rush, and putting Love in favorable down and distance situations. Green Bay will likely find creative ways to get the ball to explosive rookie Jayden Reed, who has emerged as the most explosive offensive player on the team. Green Bay also has several other wide receivers who have each had their moments this season and are used in various roles all over the field. Love has tremendous arm talent and extends plays with his legs, and his ability to not just lock onto one receiver makes the Packers much more difficult to defend. As noted earlier, the Packers have let Love air it out downfield this season and it would not be surprising for them to dial up a couple of long shots early in this one. A notable turning point for the Packers season came in their Thanksgiving upset win over the Lions, which was sparked by a 50-yard bomb on the opening drive from Love to Christian Watson. This feels like a similar spot with the Packers coming in as an underdog with their backs against the wall. While the running game will be critical over the course of the game, I expect the Packers to take a couple of haymaker swings early to try and get this Dallas team off-balance and on the ropes.

How dallas Will Try To Win ::

Game Overview ::

By mike johnson >>

• Matthew Stafford and the Rams surprised a lot of people this season and now head into his former home of Detroit for the Lions’ first home playoff game in 30 years.
• Lions quarterback Jared Goff has been substantially better at home and in domes throughout his career.
• Goff is also one of the most pressure-sensitive QBs in the league,and the Rams defense ranks 28th in the NFL in QB pressure rate.
• The Lions’ pass defense has been getting shredded recently and will have their hands full with Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp.
• Both of these offenses are run-based, yet are aggressive offensively with potent passing attacks.
• Lions rookie sensation tight end Sam LaPorta’s status is in question after a knee injury suffered in their Week 18 victory over the Vikings.

How LOS ANGELES Will Try To Win ::

The Rams have surprised many people with their playoff run this season and have been carried by their strong offensive core. At the heart of the offense has been Stafford, who has been playing lights out this season after rumors of a potential retirement followed him into last offseason. Kupp has been solid throughout the season, even if he hasn’t performed at the elite level he had played at in the past couple of seasons. Meanwhile, it was two newcomers in second-year running back Kyren Williams and rookie sensation Nacua who really put this offense over the top. The Rams are a team with some veterans who were on their Super Bowl team from a couple years ago but are relying on a lot of young players in their return to the postseason.

The Rams’ offense gets a lot of attention for its passing attack due to the high-profile nature of Stafford and Kupp, along with the dynamic season that Nacua has had seemingly out of nowhere. However, their offense is built primarily around their running game, with their passing concepts built as extensions off of that. Said another way, the Rams are a very potent passing offense, but their offense is not designed in a way where they can just come out firing on every play and dice up a defense, regardless of the matchup. This is an important thing to understand as this week’s opponent, Detroit, has a very good run defense but has been shredded through the air this season. The Rams rank 18th in the NFL in pass rate over expectation (PROE), throwing the ball at a 2.1% lower rate than their game scripts would predict. The Lions blitz at the 10th-highest rate in the NFL and lead the league in QB pressure rate. Detroit also plays man coverage at a top-10 rate in the league. Matthew Stafford has historically been very good against the blitz and this season has been no different, as he sees things extremely well pre-snap and is able to make checks and get the ball where it needs to go. Stafford ranks ninth in the NFL in PFF grade when under pressure. 

The Rams’ offense is likely to take some time to get things going in this one as their running game is unlikely to find big holes early in the game, but they have to stick with it to open up their playbook as the game progresses. Los Angeles will stick with its game plan early in this one and trust Stafford to convert some third-down throws to extend drives and give the Rams a chance to put points on the board. The Rams play at a middling pace and are likely to be focused on gaining a few first downs and calming down what is sure to be a raucous Ford Field crowd early in the game. The Rams’ offense is relatively condensed, with Williams, Kupp and Nacua being the focal points of almost everything they do. We should expect Williams to be heavily used on the ground and through the air on early downs, with Kupp and Nacua put in motion often and given space through play designs and formations that allow them to attack Detroit’s beatable corners in man coverage. Lions rookie slot corner Brian Branch has been outstanding this season and the Rams will likely look to shake their top receivers open through the use of motion and/or stacking them together to create free releases.

How dETROIT Will Try To Win ::

Game Overview ::

By mike johnson >>

• This game looks like it will have severe weather issues as the forecasts call for cold weather, potentially some snow, and severe winds.
• Both teams have been in playoff mode for a while now as they had to fight to the final game of the season to get into the wild AFC.
• Buffalo is on a five game winning streak since their Week 13 bye, with four of those wins being within one possession.
• Pittsburgh won three straight games to get into the playoffs, with all of those wins coming against teams that finished the season with a winning record.
• All-pro Steelers defensive end TJ Watt will miss this game with a knee injury.
• Pittsburgh is the only team playing this weekend with an implied team total of under 20 points.

How Pittsburgh Will Try To Win ::

The Steelers have reverted to their roots this season as a smash-mouth football team that relies primarily on its running game and defense to keep it competitive. They have ridden their dynamic running back duo of Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren into the AFC playoffs and are a team that is heating up at the right time. They made a change at quarterback that was necessitated by an injury to Kenny Pickett but it now looks like it was a blessing in disguise. Pittsburgh is on a three game winning streak after beating the Bengals, Seahawks, and Ravens with Mason Rudolph under center. It was announced this week that Rudolph will remain as the Steelers starter for the playoffs despite Pickett being back to full health. 

The Steelers rank 29th in pass rate over expectation (PROE) and 26th in raw pace of play. They are a run-based and methodical offense. Mason Rudolph torched the Bengals and had success against the Seahawks as well, but Buffalo’s defense has been playing great recently and the high winds are unlikely to allow Rudolph much downfield success. Pittsburgh managed to have a -20 point differential this season despite a 10-7 record. They have by all accounts overachieved based on that statistic and several other metrics. They have been able to do this by simply playing conservatively and trying to out-execute their opponents – keeping themselves in games and letting their opponents beat themselves. The matchup here with the Bills is really the dream for Pittsburgh despite how strong Buffalo looks on paper. Buffalo’s flaw is making critical mistakes – whether it be turnovers or game management – that cost them games that they should win. The weather should keep this game from turning into a shootout through the air so Pittsburgh should be able to rely on their defense – even without TJ Watt- to keep this game within reach and feel comfortable pounding the rock and hoping to give themselves a chance in the fourth quarter. Expect an extremely run-heavy approach from Pittsburgh with their few pass attempts likely to be within a few yards of the line of scrimmage against the zone heavy coverage scheme of the Bills and focusing on keeping Mason Rudolph from turning the ball over or taking other negative plays. The Steelers offensive mindset in this game is going to be moving the ball a little bit at a time and just trying to pick up first downs and keep the clock moving. They want to control field position and not give Buffalo any easy points.

How buffalo Will Try To Win ::

Game Overview ::

By hilow >>

• Eagles WR A.J. Brown has yet to practice this week (as of Friday) following a scary looking knee injury sustained in Week 18 (update: AJ Brown has been ruled out).
• Eagles QB Jalen Hurts (finger) was unable to finish the game in Week 18 due to a dislocated middle finger. He reportedly got in a full practice on Friday after missing Thursday altogether, but reports from beat writers indicated he has yet to throw a pass this week.
• Eagles RB D’Andre Swift was held out of the team’s Week 18 loss due to an illness but has practiced in full this week.
• Buccaneers QB Baker Mayfield (ankle/ribs) did not practice on Thursday before upgrading to a limited showing on Friday. This dude is beyond banged up at the moment.

How philadelphia Will Try To Win ::

Eagles head coach Nick Sirianni has come under fire this week after his alpha wide receiver sustained what appeared to be a significant knee injury in what amounted to a meaningless Week 18 game. Yes, the Eagles had about a 10 percent chance of leaping from the five-seed to the two-seed in Week 18, but they needed a Cowboys loss against the Commanders to do so. Beyond that, Brown is very clearly frustrated with his team, his situation, his coaching, or some combination of all of the above. The disgruntled veteran receiver removed all mention of the Eagles on his socials in addition to deleting his Twitter account this week. And then there’s Jalen Hurts, who dislocated his middle finger in the first half of the team’s Week 18 loss to the Giants (lolz) and was unable to finish the contest. As was noted above, he was listed as a full participant in Friday’s practice but beat reporters indicated he has yet to throw a pass this week. And then there’s the state of this team after having lost five of their last six games and dropping from the one seed in the NFC all the way down to the fifth seed in the process. In other words, this Philadelphia team does not enter the Super Wildcard Round in the greatest form.

Lead back D’Andre Swift has a clearly defined role in this offense, having played over 65 percent of the team’s offensive snaps just twice all season while ceding work to Kenneth Gainwell in a “more than change of pace” capacity. Although Swift has 41 red zone touches to go along with the fifth most rushing yards in the league this season, he saw only five goal line carries through the entirety of the regular season with basically anything inside the three left to quarterback Jalen Hurts. The matchup on the ground is far from ideal against a Buccaneers defense holding opponents to 3.8 yards per carry behind 1.09 yards allowed before contact (third best of playoff teams).

A.J. Brown’s status for this game is likely to carry massive implications for the fantasy expectations for multiple Philadelphia pass-catchers. This offense has historically behaved rather straightforward with its primary weapons, typically becoming more condensed amongst the primary pieces as opposed to allowing trickle-down volume to carry to the situational players. That makes both Dallas Goedert and Devonta Smith extremely interesting to include in builds for the full six-game slate because this is the final game of the weekend, meaning we currently have the lowest amount of information. The Buccaneers allowed 6.4 net yards per pass attempt this season (23^rd) on an 8.0 aDOT, setting the stage for a solid pass-funnel matchup for the Eagles. Finally, the fact that Hurts has an injured middle finger on his throwing hand could lead to a higher rate of short-to-intermediate passing, which bodes well for the potential upside of Goedert. The team very clearly does not want Julio Jones in a heavy snap rate role and Quez Watkins is more of a field stretcher out of the slot, meaning it would likely be Olamide Zaccheaus on the perimeter should Brown miss.

How tampa bay Will Try To Win ::