Game Overview ::
By Hilow >>
- The Texans remain extremely beat up along the defensive line, with five defensive tackles or defensive ends missing practice this week (through Wednesday).
- Texans WR Nico Collins is not present on the injury report this week.
- Texans WR Noah Brown was placed on injured reserve and will miss the rest of the Houston playoff run.
- Ravens TE Mark Andrews (IR, ankle) returned to a limited session on Wednesday before practicing in full on Thursday. He very well could find himself active for the Ravens first playoff game this weekend after missing more than half of the season on injured reserve.
- Ravens WR/KR Devin Duvernay (IR, back) returned to two full sessions this week and could also be activated prior to Baltimore’s first playoff game.
- Ravens CB Marlon Humphrey (calf) has yet to practice this week (as of Wednesday).
- Ravens rookie WR Zay Flowers (calf) upgraded from limited Wednesday to full participant Thursday – he should be good to go on Saturday.
How houston Will Try To Win ::
The Texans had their way with the Browns in the Wildcard Round, with rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud averaging a ridiculous 13.05 yards per pass attempt and 17.13 yards per completion in the playoff rout. Lead back Devin Singletary also averaged a solid 5.1 yards per carry on the afternoon. Offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik called an elite game against the robust man coverage rates of the Browns, but he now gets an opponent that runs near league average rates of man and zone. The Ravens ranked top two in yards per coverage rate and first down plus touchdown rate allowed from man coverage this year, holding opponents to 16.5 points per game in the regular season (first). That said, the Browns entered the postseason allowing the fewest yards per game (274.9) while the Ravens ranked fifth at 301.4. Either way, this will be another difficult test for Slowik and the Houston offense as they look to continue their unlikely postseason run. To be successful against an opponent that also ranks top 10 in third down conversion rate allowed (Browns ranked first, Ravens rank eighth), Slowik is going to have to keep this team from getting behind the sticks in third-and-long situations. That is likely to require dynamic early down play calling tendencies and positive yardage on early down situations, which should translate to a pass-balanced offensive approach on paper.
Dameon Pierce has been almost entirely removed from the offensive game plan of late, playing at most 12 offensive snaps in the previous six games. That has left Devin Singletary as a true workhorse to end the season, handling opportunity counts of 16, 31, 12, 19, 26, and 16 during that span. His two outlier opportunity totals during that time came in close games (19-16 win over the Titans and 23-19 win over the Colts to clinch a postseason berth in Week 18) while the four games of 19 opportunities and below all came in blowouts in either direction. That makes it fairly straightforward in how to optimally build with and without Singletary as his opportunities are directly correlated to game environment. The pure rushing matchup is surprisingly the top on the slate of the remaining playoff teams as the Ravens have allowed 4.5 yards per carry (seventh of remaining teams), 1.35 yards before contact (last of remaining teams), and 21.0 DK points per game (sixth of remaining teams) to opposing backfields this year. Even so, it will be up to the play calling of offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik to remain unpredictable after he has been sporadic this season in his situational tendencies.
We’ve talked about this all season, but Nico Collins is this team’s unquestioned man-beater, seeing a solid 25 percent targets per route run (TPRR) and 33 percent target rate against man coverage this season – and that was mostly with Tank Dell and/or Noah Brown in the lineup. Both will be out through the end of the Texans postseason run while on injured reserve. The likely absence of Marlon Humphrey should force veteran Rock Ya-Sin into the primary perimeter cornerback role opposite Brandon Stephens, with nickel corner/floating safety Kyle Hamilton in his typical “queen chess piece” role for the Ravens. Ya-Sin brings veteran savvy to the table but he is not on the same level as a guy like Marlon Humphrey at this point in his career, having allowed almost double the passer rating in coverage this season than Humphrey. If I’m Slowik, I’m doing everything in my power to get Collins aligned opposite Ya-Sin for as many plays as possible this week, which is going to take some dynamic play calling due to the stout nature of the Baltimore pass defense. Look for Slowik to keep Collins in motion to remain more fluid and generate those mismatches. Ravens defensive coordinator Mike Macdonald is far from static as a defensive play caller himself, meaning we could see him deploy his queen chess piece (Kyle Hamilton) in a demi-shadow with additional safety help on Collins to force literally anyone else from the Texans to beat them, which would likeliest result in further pass game usage for Devin Singletary and tight end Dalton Schultz, the latter of whom has but one usable fantasy score in his last eight games (although he does have the 31.0 DK point eruption that came in a shootout against the Buccaneers in Week 9). Expect John Metchie to serve as the unquestioned WR2 while Robert Woods and Xavier Hutchinson split WR3 duties.
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