Game Overview ::
By hilow >>
- First off, we don’t have a ton of information regarding injuries/practice participation out of Green Bay as the team did not practice Tuesday and held a walkthrough Wednesday (I’m writing this on Thursday morning before their practice report but will try and update late in the day).
- Packers RB AJ Dillon (thumb/neck) remained a ‘DNP’ for the first two practices this week after missing the previous two games.
- Packers CB Jaire Alexander (shoulder/ankle) was listed as limited Tuesday and ‘DNP’ Wednesday after departing from the team’s Wildcard Round win over the Cowboys. The All-Pro corner has played in only eight games this season.
- The 49ers are effectively at full health after their postseason bye.
How green bay Will Try To Win ::
The Packers won seven of their last nine contests to get to this point in the postseason, rattling off six wins in their final eight regular season games before besting the Cowboys on the road in Jerry World in the Wildcard Round. That said, that blowout win over the Cowboys was only the third time this season that Green Bay has won by more than one score. That should help to illustrate how this team has tried to win games this year, operating at a modest pace of play and neutral run-pass rates to take games into the fourth quarter. That also helps to highlight the state of their defense, which is designed to force teams to march the field against them by stringing together drives, which theoretically gives the Packers more opportunities to generate disruptive plays like sacks (45, 16th) and turnovers (1.1 per game, 23rd in the league). As you can see, they haven’t been overly successful in those endeavors this season, ranking average to poorly in the two most important metrics to that style of defensive play. What has buoyed this team to the postseason was their sharp turnaround in first half scoring after ranking near the bottom of the league in first quarter and first half points per game through the halfway point of the season. They’ll likely need to replicate that early success against the NFC’s top team this week.
AJ Dillon got in a limited session on Thursday after missing the first two practices of the week in addition to the previous two games. That said, the Packers did not practice on Tuesday and held a walkthrough on Wednesday, meaning the only official practice this week was the one where Dillon managed a limited session. It’s still too early to speculate on his expected status this weekend, with our best insights likely to come on Friday with standard elevations. That’s important to track for what Aaron Jones is to this offense in the absence of Dillon, handling snap rates of 82 percent and 63 percent (blowout against Dallas) and opportunity counts of 27 and 22 (blowout) in the previous two games without Dillon. The matchup on the ground should be considered middling against a 49ers defense allowing 4.1 yards per carry (19th) and 1.16 yards before contact but holding opposing backfields to the fourth fewest DK points per game, the last of which can also be attributed to the fewest rush attempts faced this season. Should Dillon play, we’re likeliest to see a 60-40 or 65-35 split between the two, while Jones carries legitimate upside for a McCaffrey-esque workload if Dillon is held out.
Per Jordan Vanek of The 33rd Team, there were five rookie wide receivers to average 2.0 yards per route run or higher this season. Two of those wide receivers were Packers rookies Jayden Reed and Dontayvion Wicks. That is impressive, if for nothing more than to quell the rising tides of Packers fans who have been chastising this franchise for what feels like a millennium for their handling of the position in the draft (myself included, at times). And then there’s undrafted free agent rookie Bo Melton, who has been legitimately good in his limited playing time through a myriad of Green Bay injuries. Beyond that, it’s almost fruitless to discuss the state of this pass-catching corps after all of Christian Watson, Romeo Doubs, Jayden Reed, Dontayvion Wicks, and Bo Melton played between 39 percent and 70 percent of the offensive snaps in the team’s Divisional Round upset over the Cowboys. Tight end Tucker Kraft led the team in snap rate in that game at 80 percent, while the recently activated Luke Musgrave saw his snap rate jump from 15 percent to 27 percent in his second game back from injured reserve. Volume is likely to be an issue for individual members of this pass offense. That said, all of these guys have shown flashes at various points this season and one or two are likely to return some level of production in this spot considering the matchup and likeliest game flow.
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