Bucs (

21.25) at
Lions (

27.25)

Game Overview ::

By mike johnson >>

• This game is a rematch of an early season battle that Detroit won 20-6 while playing without a couple of key offensive players.
• The Bucs offense has improved significantly since that matchup while the Lions pass defense has been struggling recently.
• The Bucs blitz at the third-highest rate in the NFL, which could pose a problem for Jared Goff, who has struggled against the blitz and pressure throughout his career.
• Both run defenses rank in the top 5 in the NFL in yards per carry allowed, which could lead to increased pass rates and higher play volume from both teams.
• This game may have the greatest “shootout” potential of any of the four divisional round matchups due to the offensive tendencies of both teams and the fact the game is being played in a dome.

How tampa bay Will Try To Win ::

The Bucs have won six of their last seven games as they came from behind to win the NFC South and then had a dominant performance against the downtrodden Eagles in the Wild Card round. The Bucs offense has been rolling during their hot streak, scoring 29+ points in four of the six victories during this recent stretch. Baker Mayfield has turned the corner and shown the abilities that made him a highly touted player when he entered the league, thanks in large part to offensive coordinator Dave Canales, who previously helped rejuvenate Geno Smith’s career with the Seahawks. The Bucs offense is usually a relatively condensed unit, with workhorse RB Rachaad White and the elite WR duo of Mike Evans and Chris Godwin dominating the team’s usage. In last week’s win over the Eagles, however, it was the “other” guys who stole the show. Tight end Cade Otton saw his highest target total (11) of the season and made the most of it, with eight receptions for 89 yards. Meanwhile, wide receivers Trey Palmer and David Moore each made big plays in the receiving game with touchdown receptions of 56 and 44 yards, respectively.

This week, the Bucs face a Lions defense that has been terrific against the run all season and is coming off a game where they shut down a very good Rams rushing scheme. The Bucs have been wildly inefficient running the ball this season, ranking dead last in yards per carry, 29th in PFF run-blocking grade, and 29th in rushing offense DVOA. To put it mildly, this is not a game where Tampa Bay should be expected to have any level of success running the ball. That will leave the heavy lifting to Baker Mayfield and the Bucs passing game. The Lions play a high rate of man coverage and lead the NFL in QB pressure rate while ranking 10th in the league in blitz rate. This matchup would seemingly setup well for Mike Evans, who has been more successful than Godwin against man coverage this season and who should get chances to make plays downfield against a Lions defense that has been shredded by Puka Nacua, Justin Jefferson, and Ceedee Lamb over the last three weeks. Godwin and White will likely be heavily involved in the passing game as well, with White’s usage likely to spike in that area as an alternative to the traditional running game. The ancillary pieces of Otton, Palmer, and Moore will once again have roles, and the Bucs will likely need one of them to step up in a pass-heavy game plan. Ultimately, we should expect the Bucs to throw the ball early and often in this one, with Mike Evans likely to be the focal point of the offense. How effective they can be as a unit and whether or not they can win this game will depend on whether they can have some other players step up as well. It is worth noting that the Lions defense held the Rams, Vikings, and Cowboys offenses to 23, 20, and 20 points, respectively, despite the top receiving options for those teams accumulating a combined 601 receiving yards. The Lions will continue to play their normal style of defense and live with a few big plays from the Bucs alpha, daring Tampa Bay’s running game and other players to pick up the slack to allow them to score enough points to challenge for a victory.

How detroit Will Try To Win ::