Game Overview ::

By Hilow >>

• The Texans remain extremely beat up along the defensive line, with five defensive tackles or defensive ends missing practice this week (through Wednesday).
• Texans WR Nico Collins is not present on the injury report this week.
• Texans WR Noah Brown was placed on injured reserve and will miss the rest of the Houston playoff run.
• Ravens TE Mark Andrews (IR, ankle) returned to a limited session on Wednesday before practicing in full on Thursday. He very well could find himself active for the Ravens first playoff game this weekend after missing more than half of the season on injured reserve.
• Ravens WR/KR Devin Duvernay (IR, back) returned to two full sessions this week and could also be activated prior to Baltimore’s first playoff game.
• Ravens CB Marlon Humphrey (calf) has yet to practice this week (as of Wednesday).
• Ravens rookie WR Zay Flowers (calf) upgraded from limited Wednesday to full participant Thursday – he should be good to go on Saturday.

How houston Will Try To Win ::

The Texans had their way with the Browns in the Wildcard Round, with rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud averaging a ridiculous 13.05 yards per pass attempt and 17.13 yards per completion in the playoff rout. Lead back Devin Singletary also averaged a solid 5.1 yards per carry on the afternoon. Offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik called an elite game against the robust man coverage rates of the Browns, but he now gets an opponent that runs near league average rates of man and zone. The Ravens ranked top two in yards per coverage rate and first down plus touchdown rate allowed from man coverage this year, holding opponents to 16.5 points per game in the regular season (first). That said, the Browns entered the postseason allowing the fewest yards per game (274.9) while the Ravens ranked fifth at 301.4. Either way, this will be another difficult test for Slowik and the Houston offense as they look to continue their unlikely postseason run. To be successful against an opponent that also ranks top 10 in third down conversion rate allowed (Browns ranked first, Ravens rank eighth), Slowik is going to have to keep this team from getting behind the sticks in third-and-long situations. That is likely to require dynamic early down play calling tendencies and positive yardage on early down situations, which should translate to a pass-balanced offensive approach on paper.

Dameon Pierce has been almost entirely removed from the offensive game plan of late, playing at most 12 offensive snaps in the previous six games. That has left Devin Singletary as a true workhorse to end the season, handling opportunity counts of 16, 31, 12, 19, 26, and 16 during that span. His two outlier opportunity totals during that time came in close games (19-16 win over the Titans and 23-19 win over the Colts to clinch a postseason berth in Week 18) while the four games of 19 opportunities and below all came in blowouts in either direction. That makes it fairly straightforward in how to optimally build with and without Singletary as his opportunities are directly correlated to game environment. The pure rushing matchup is surprisingly the top on the slate of the remaining playoff teams as the Ravens have allowed 4.5 yards per carry (seventh of remaining teams), 1.35 yards before contact (last of remaining teams), and 21.0 DK points per game (sixth of remaining teams) to opposing backfields this year. Even so, it will be up to the play calling of offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik to remain unpredictable after he has been sporadic this season in his situational tendencies.

We’ve talked about this all season, but Nico Collins is this team’s unquestioned man-beater, seeing a solid 25 percent targets per route run (TPRR) and 33 percent target rate against man coverage this season – and that was mostly with Tank Dell and/or Noah Brown in the lineup. Both will be out through the end of the Texans postseason run while on injured reserve. The likely absence of Marlon Humphrey should force veteran Rock Ya-Sin into the primary perimeter cornerback role opposite Brandon Stephens, with nickel corner/floating safety Kyle Hamilton in his typical “queen chess piece” role for the Ravens. Ya-Sin brings veteran savvy to the table but he is not on the same level as a guy like Marlon Humphrey at this point in his career, having allowed almost double the passer rating in coverage this season than Humphrey. If I’m Slowik, I’m doing everything in my power to get Collins aligned opposite Ya-Sin for as many plays as possible this week, which is going to take some dynamic play calling due to the stout nature of the Baltimore pass defense. Look for Slowik to keep Collins in motion to remain more fluid and generate those mismatches. Ravens defensive coordinator Mike Macdonald is far from static as a defensive play caller himself, meaning we could see him deploy his queen chess piece (Kyle Hamilton) in a demi-shadow with additional safety help on Collins to force literally anyone else from the Texans to beat them, which would likeliest result in further pass game usage for Devin Singletary and tight end Dalton Schultz, the latter of whom has but one usable fantasy score in his last eight games (although he does have the 31.0 DK point eruption that came in a shootout against the Buccaneers in Week 9). Expect John Metchie to serve as the unquestioned WR2 while Robert Woods and Xavier Hutchinson split WR3 duties.

How Baltimore Will Try To Win ::

Game Overview ::

By hilow >>

• First off, we don’t have a ton of information regarding injuries/practice participation out of Green Bay as the team did not practice Tuesday and held a walkthrough Wednesday (I’m writing this on Thursday morning before their practice report but will try and update late in the day).
• Packers RB AJ Dillon (thumb/neck) remained a ‘DNP’ for the first two practices this week after missing the previous two games.
• Packers CB Jaire Alexander (shoulder/ankle) was listed as limited Tuesday and ‘DNP’ Wednesday after departing from the team’s Wildcard Round win over the Cowboys. The All-Pro corner has played in only eight games this season.
• The 49ers are effectively at full health after their postseason bye.

How green bay Will Try To Win ::

The Packers won seven of their last nine contests to get to this point in the postseason, rattling off six wins in their final eight regular season games before besting the Cowboys on the road in Jerry World in the Wildcard Round. That said, that blowout win over the Cowboys was only the third time this season that Green Bay has won by more than one score. That should help to illustrate how this team has tried to win games this year, operating at a modest pace of play and neutral run-pass rates to take games into the fourth quarter. That also helps to highlight the state of their defense, which is designed to force teams to march the field against them by stringing together drives, which theoretically gives the Packers more opportunities to generate disruptive plays like sacks (45, 16^th) and turnovers (1.1 per game, 23^rd in the league). As you can see, they haven’t been overly successful in those endeavors this season, ranking average to poorly in the two most important metrics to that style of defensive play. What has buoyed this team to the postseason was their sharp turnaround in first half scoring after ranking near the bottom of the league in first quarter and first half points per game through the halfway point of the season. They’ll likely need to replicate that early success against the NFC’s top team this week.

AJ Dillon got in a limited session on Thursday after missing the first two practices of the week in addition to the previous two games. That said, the Packers did not practice on Tuesday and held a walkthrough on Wednesday, meaning the only official practice this week was the one where Dillon managed a limited session. It’s still too early to speculate on his expected status this weekend, with our best insights likely to come on Friday with standard elevations. That’s important to track for what Aaron Jones is to this offense in the absence of Dillon, handling snap rates of 82 percent and 63 percent (blowout against Dallas) and opportunity counts of 27 and 22 (blowout) in the previous two games without Dillon. The matchup on the ground should be considered middling against a 49ers defense allowing 4.1 yards per carry (19^th) and 1.16 yards before contact but holding opposing backfields to the fourth fewest DK points per game, the last of which can also be attributed to the fewest rush attempts faced this season. Should Dillon play, we’re likeliest to see a 60-40 or 65-35 split between the two, while Jones carries legitimate upside for a McCaffrey-esque workload if Dillon is held out.

Per Jordan Vanek of The 33^rd Team, there were five rookie wide receivers to average 2.0 yards per route run or higher this season. Two of those wide receivers were Packers rookies Jayden Reed and Dontayvion Wicks. That is impressive, if for nothing more than to quell the rising tides of Packers fans who have been chastising this franchise for what feels like a millennium for their handling of the position in the draft (myself included, at times). And then there’s undrafted free agent rookie Bo Melton, who has been legitimately good in his limited playing time through a myriad of Green Bay injuries. Beyond that, it’s almost fruitless to discuss the state of this pass-catching corps after all of Christian Watson, Romeo Doubs, Jayden Reed, Dontayvion Wicks, and Bo Melton played between 39 percent and 70 percent of the offensive snaps in the team’s Divisional Round upset over the Cowboys. Tight end Tucker Kraft led the team in snap rate in that game at 80 percent, while the recently activated Luke Musgrave saw his snap rate jump from 15 percent to 27 percent in his second game back from injured reserve. Volume is likely to be an issue for individual members of this pass offense. That said, all of these guys have shown flashes at various points this season and one or two are likely to return some level of production in this spot considering the matchup and likeliest game flow.

How San Francisco Will Try To Win ::

Game Overview ::

By mike johnson >>

• This game is a rematch of an early season battle that Detroit won 20-6 while playing without a couple of key offensive players.
• The Bucs offense has improved significantly since that matchup while the Lions pass defense has been struggling recently.
• The Bucs blitz at the third-highest rate in the NFL, which could pose a problem for Jared Goff, who has struggled against the blitz and pressure throughout his career.
• Both run defenses rank in the top 5 in the NFL in yards per carry allowed, which could lead to increased pass rates and higher play volume from both teams.
• This game may have the greatest “shootout” potential of any of the four divisional round matchups due to the offensive tendencies of both teams and the fact the game is being played in a dome.

How tampa bay Will Try To Win ::

The Bucs have won six of their last seven games as they came from behind to win the NFC South and then had a dominant performance against the downtrodden Eagles in the Wild Card round. The Bucs offense has been rolling during their hot streak, scoring 29+ points in four of the six victories during this recent stretch. Baker Mayfield has turned the corner and shown the abilities that made him a highly touted player when he entered the league, thanks in large part to offensive coordinator Dave Canales, who previously helped rejuvenate Geno Smith’s career with the Seahawks. The Bucs offense is usually a relatively condensed unit, with workhorse RB Rachaad White and the elite WR duo of Mike Evans and Chris Godwin dominating the team’s usage. In last week’s win over the Eagles, however, it was the “other” guys who stole the show. Tight end Cade Otton saw his highest target total (11) of the season and made the most of it, with eight receptions for 89 yards. Meanwhile, wide receivers Trey Palmer and David Moore each made big plays in the receiving game with touchdown receptions of 56 and 44 yards, respectively.

This week, the Bucs face a Lions defense that has been terrific against the run all season and is coming off a game where they shut down a very good Rams rushing scheme. The Bucs have been wildly inefficient running the ball this season, ranking dead last in yards per carry, 29th in PFF run-blocking grade, and 29th in rushing offense DVOA. To put it mildly, this is not a game where Tampa Bay should be expected to have any level of success running the ball. That will leave the heavy lifting to Baker Mayfield and the Bucs passing game. The Lions play a high rate of man coverage and lead the NFL in QB pressure rate while ranking 10th in the league in blitz rate. This matchup would seemingly setup well for Mike Evans, who has been more successful than Godwin against man coverage this season and who should get chances to make plays downfield against a Lions defense that has been shredded by Puka Nacua, Justin Jefferson, and Ceedee Lamb over the last three weeks. Godwin and White will likely be heavily involved in the passing game as well, with White’s usage likely to spike in that area as an alternative to the traditional running game. The ancillary pieces of Otton, Palmer, and Moore will once again have roles, and the Bucs will likely need one of them to step up in a pass-heavy game plan. Ultimately, we should expect the Bucs to throw the ball early and often in this one, with Mike Evans likely to be the focal point of the offense. How effective they can be as a unit and whether or not they can win this game will depend on whether they can have some other players step up as well. It is worth noting that the Lions defense held the Rams, Vikings, and Cowboys offenses to 23, 20, and 20 points, respectively, despite the top receiving options for those teams accumulating a combined 601 receiving yards. The Lions will continue to play their normal style of defense and live with a few big plays from the Bucs alpha, daring Tampa Bay’s running game and other players to pick up the slack to allow them to score enough points to challenge for a victory.

How detroit Will Try To Win ::

Game Overview ::

By mike johnson >>

• The Chiefs and Bills continue their recent rivalry with a divisional showdown in Buffalo.
• This game is a rematch of the controversial “Kadarius Toney offsides” game, which the Bills won 20-17.
• The Bills have won the last three regular-season matchups between these teams, while the Chiefs have won both of the playoff matchups between Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes.
• Buffalo has won six straight games since their Week 13 bye.
• Neither defense has given up more than two offensive touchdowns in a game over their last six games.
• The Chiefs’ offense has become relatively condensed over the second half of the season while the Bills’ offense has become more run-heavy and is spreading out their usage.

How kansas city Will Try To Win ::

The Chiefs offense has evolved over the course of the season and functions primarily through the usage of three players: Isiah Pacheco, Travis Kelce, and Rashee Rice. Pacheco had 25 opportunities (24 carries and one target), while Rice and Kelce combined for 22 of the team’s 34 intended targets – a massive 64.7% combined target share. The Chiefs mix and match a lot of personnel groupings and formations and spread the rest of the touches around among a variety of skill players, but their offense is overwhelmingly run through those three players. It is important to understand that fact when assessing how they will approach this game in Buffalo for two distinct reasons. First, if we know they want to play through those three specific players, we can look at what areas those players are strongest in. Second, the Bills defense showed us in the Wild Card round that they are willing to be diverse and alter their approach based on their opponents. In their matchup against the Steelers, who had been running the ball often and effectively coming into the game, Buffalo altered from their usual “two-high” deep shell coverage looks by going with single-high safeties at a much higher rate than we had seen from them for most of the season. They did this to bring extra men into the box to counter the Steelers running attack and dare them to throw the ball. Pittsburgh didn’t adjust well and struggled offensively.

There will be quite a chess match when the Chiefs have the ball as Andy Reid is terrific on the offensive side of the ball, and Sean McDermott has been adjusting very well with the Bills’ defense this season. Travis Kelce has taken a step back this season regarding overall production, but he is still PFF’s #1 graded tight end when facing zone coverage while ranking 9th against man coverage. Likewise, Rashee Rice ranks 9th in the NFL in PFF receiving grade when facing zone coverage while dropping to 35th in the same category when facing man coverage. The Bills have mixed up their coverages this season and rank in the middle of the league in both man and zone coverage rates. The Chiefs also lead the league in pass rate over expectation (PROE). If we stopped right there, it would seem obvious that the Bills defensive recipe should be to play a high rate of man coverage with their usual two-high safety looks as that would limit the effectiveness of the Chiefs top receiving options and make things difficult for an extremely pass-heavy offense. This is where things get tricky, however, as the Chiefs have shown a willingness to ride Pacheco recently, and he has been pretty effective during the later part of the season. Likewise, Patrick Mahomes is incredible at extending plays with his legs and scrambling for yards. Generally speaking, playing man coverage can be a risky proposition. 

The Chiefs offensive approach will largely be dictated by Buffalos defensive approach. When we consider how Buffalo approached last week’s game and the history between these teams, it would seem likely that the Bills will identify Mahomes and the Chiefs passing game as the most important thing to slow down, and they will play an increased rate of man coverage with two-high safeties and likely assign a “spy” to Mahomes to limit his scrambles to modest gains. Basically, it seems likely that they will dare the Chiefs to pound the ball on the ground all game rather than opening themselves up on the backside against a quarterback who has diced them up in the playoffs in the past. Expect the Chiefs to run the ball at a higher-than-normal rate early in this game, as the Bills defensive scheme will likely dictate that, and the Chiefs will have to make adjustments and set up plays to exploit the Bills defense as the game goes on.

How buffalo Will Try To Win ::