Game Overview ::
By mike johnson >>
- The Chiefs and Bills continue their recent rivalry with a divisional showdown in Buffalo.
- This game is a rematch of the controversial “Kadarius Toney offsides” game, which the Bills won 20-17.
- The Bills have won the last three regular-season matchups between these teams, while the Chiefs have won both of the playoff matchups between Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes.
- Buffalo has won six straight games since their Week 13 bye.
- Neither defense has given up more than two offensive touchdowns in a game over their last six games.
- The Chiefs’ offense has become relatively condensed over the second half of the season while the Bills’ offense has become more run-heavy and is spreading out their usage.
How kansas city Will Try To Win ::
The Chiefs offense has evolved over the course of the season and functions primarily through the usage of three players: Isiah Pacheco, Travis Kelce, and Rashee Rice. Pacheco had 25 opportunities (24 carries and one target), while Rice and Kelce combined for 22 of the team’s 34 intended targets – a massive 64.7% combined target share. The Chiefs mix and match a lot of personnel groupings and formations and spread the rest of the touches around among a variety of skill players, but their offense is overwhelmingly run through those three players. It is important to understand that fact when assessing how they will approach this game in Buffalo for two distinct reasons. First, if we know they want to play through those three specific players, we can look at what areas those players are strongest in. Second, the Bills defense showed us in the Wild Card round that they are willing to be diverse and alter their approach based on their opponents. In their matchup against the Steelers, who had been running the ball often and effectively coming into the game, Buffalo altered from their usual “two-high” deep shell coverage looks by going with single-high safeties at a much higher rate than we had seen from them for most of the season. They did this to bring extra men into the box to counter the Steelers running attack and dare them to throw the ball. Pittsburgh didn’t adjust well and struggled offensively.
There will be quite a chess match when the Chiefs have the ball as Andy Reid is terrific on the offensive side of the ball, and Sean McDermott has been adjusting very well with the Bills’ defense this season. Travis Kelce has taken a step back this season regarding overall production, but he is still PFF’s #1 graded tight end when facing zone coverage while ranking 9th against man coverage. Likewise, Rashee Rice ranks 9th in the NFL in PFF receiving grade when facing zone coverage while dropping to 35th in the same category when facing man coverage. The Bills have mixed up their coverages this season and rank in the middle of the league in both man and zone coverage rates. The Chiefs also lead the league in pass rate over expectation (PROE). If we stopped right there, it would seem obvious that the Bills defensive recipe should be to play a high rate of man coverage with their usual two-high safety looks as that would limit the effectiveness of the Chiefs top receiving options and make things difficult for an extremely pass-heavy offense. This is where things get tricky, however, as the Chiefs have shown a willingness to ride Pacheco recently, and he has been pretty effective during the later part of the season. Likewise, Patrick Mahomes is incredible at extending plays with his legs and scrambling for yards. Generally speaking, playing man coverage can be a risky proposition.
The Chiefs offensive approach will largely be dictated by Buffalos defensive approach. When we consider how Buffalo approached last week’s game and the history between these teams, it would seem likely that the Bills will identify Mahomes and the Chiefs passing game as the most important thing to slow down, and they will play an increased rate of man coverage with two-high safeties and likely assign a “spy” to Mahomes to limit his scrambles to modest gains. Basically, it seems likely that they will dare the Chiefs to pound the ball on the ground all game rather than opening themselves up on the backside against a quarterback who has diced them up in the playoffs in the past. Expect the Chiefs to run the ball at a higher-than-normal rate early in this game, as the Bills defensive scheme will likely dictate that, and the Chiefs will have to make adjustments and set up plays to exploit the Bills defense as the game goes on.
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