slate Overview ::
By hilow >>
- Chiefs RB Isiah Pacheco (ankle/toe) did not practice Wednesday. I’m writing this on Thursday before the updated injury report is released, but I tentatively view this absence as more maintenance than anything that would place his availability for Sunday at risk. That said, monitor this situation closely as the weekend draws near, as an absence would have massive ramifications for this slate.
- Chiefs WR Skyy Moore (knee, IRDR) did not practice Wednesday as he works his way back from an extended absence.
- Chiefs OG Joe Thuney (pectoral) did not practice Wednesday and appears to be at significant risk of missing the Conference Championship game against the Ravens.
- LB Willie Gay (limited, neck), DT Derrick Nnadi (DNP, triceps), and S Mike Edwards (DNP, concussion) are the other injuries to monitor for the Chiefs. All three starters play vital roles in defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo’s scheme.
- Ravens TE Mark Andrews (ankle, IRDR) practiced in full on Wednesday after managing two full practices before the team’s Divisional Round win over the Texans. It appears to be highly likely that the All-Pro tight end returns for the Ravens to play the Chiefs.
- Lions TE Sam LaPorta (knee) returned to a limited session Thursday after missing practice Wednesday. He should be good to go once again after playing each of the previous two playoff games with a hyperextended knee with an associated bone bruise.
- Lions WR Kalif Raymond (knee) has yet to practice this week after missing both playoff games so far.
- C Frank Ragnow (ankle/toe/knee/back) and OG Jonah Jackson (knee) have not practiced this week. Pay close attention to the respective statuses of these two offensive linemen – the struggles of QB Jared Goff when under pressure are well documented.
- 49ers WR Deebo Samuel (shoulder) did not practice Wednesday but was seen working on the side with trainers with his jersey on. Considering the team would have an extra week of rest between the Conference Championship week and the Super Bowl with a win here, I tentatively expect him to suit up come Sunday.
- The two AFC teams finished the regular season ranked first and second in points allowed per game, with the Ravens ranking second in points per game (28.7) while the Chiefs ranked 14th (22.3).
How kansas city Will Try To Win ::
The Chiefs finished the regular season with the highest PROE in the league. They then attempted 41 passes to 31 designed running back carries in a 26-7 Wildcard win over the Dolphins and attempted just 23 passes to 17 designed running back carries in a 27-24 Divisional Round win over the Bills. They’re still passing at high rates, and they’re still moving the football well (eighth-ranked 354.8 yards per game this season), so how did they fall from first in scoring per game in 2022 (29.2 points per game) to 14th in 2023 (22.3 points per game)? Red zone efficiency – and man, how they struggled compared to previous years under Andy Reid. They ranked second in red zone touchdown rate in 2022 at 71.08 percent and experienced the second highest delta from last season to this season, falling all the way to a 19th-ranked 52.11 percent (only the Giants fell further this year in red zone touchdown rate). Furthermore, this offensive unit finally started trimming the fat, so to speak, effectively condensing their personnel decisions after their Week 10 bye. That is to say, this offense is doing many of the same things that we have grown to expect, but they spent a large portion of the season tinkering with personnel to find which pieces and looks best fit their vision of the end-game offense. What’s most interesting about that journey offensively is how those tendencies interacted with their vastly improved defense this season, which the two playoff games bring to the front of the stage. Turnovers and exceptional situational play calling between the 20s led to 79 offensive plays run from scrimmage against the Dolphins while the team was “held” to 47 offensive plays against the Bills. Digging a bit deeper, however, reveals that they averaged a massive 7.7 yards per play last week in what amounted to a deeper focus on managing the game through their defense. They saw seven possessions in that game, scoring on five of them and losing a fumble through the end zone on another. That left a one-play possession to end the first half and one single punt. That was a long journey to get to the conclusion that this team is now at a place where they can win in multiple different ways. They can shoot it out with the best of them (pending their red zone efficiency), they can play to a more possessions-style offensive approach with long, sustained drives (as they did last week against the Bills), and they can leverage their improved defense to completely wipe opponents off the field (as they did against the Dolphins).
Clyde Edwards-Helaire has seen snap rates of 30 and 26 percent in the postseason, parlaying that modest time on the field into 11 combined running back opportunities. Compare that to the 70 and 72 percent snap rates for Isiah Pacheco, which he turned into 41 combined running back opportunities, and we begin to see a clear picture of a borderline workhorse running back that has developed over the second half of the season. The Ravens are a stout defense all around but are most susceptible to allowing production on the ground, considering their elite secondary. During the regular season, Baltimore allowed 4.5 yards per carry (26th), 1.40 yards before contact, and 17.3 DK points per game to opposing backfields. Although we shouldn’t expect the Chiefs to bias their attack toward the ground game on their own, they have been known to involve Pacheco at heightened rates in positive game environments. The likeliest scenario leaves Pacheco in the 18-20 running back opportunity range, with outlier environments influencing that number in either direction. And that’s if Pacheco manages to play. If Pacheco misses, expect CEH to see the bulk of the work out of the backfield, which is likeliest to lead to an even higher pass rate than baseline expectation.
Rashee Rice and Travis Kelce combined for ten targets on 23 Patrick Mahomes pass attempts in the Divisional Round and 22 targets on 41 Mahomes pass attempts in the Wildcard round. In other words, those two Kansas City pass-catchers have combined to account for 50 percent of the team’s available targets in the postseason, which makes sense when the remaining pass-catchers on the roster include names like Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Justin Watson, Mecole Hardman, and Noah Gray. It appears Skyy Moore won’t make it back in time to play the Ravens, but the team is likely to get Kadarius Toney back after five missed games. Either way, expect Rice and Kelce to each see around 80 percent of the offensive snaps while Valdes-Scantling, Watson, Hardman, Toney, Gray, and Richie James mixed in for situational roles. Baltimore led the league in net yards per pass attempt allowed during the regular season at 4.7, holding opposing wide receivers to just 24.6 DK points per game and opposing tight ends to 8.2 DK points per game. As in, this is a difficult on-paper matchup for the Kansas City passing game.
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