Game Overview ::
By hilow >>
- If you like clean injury reports, I’d advise you not to look at the injury reports from these two teams.
- That said, the Titans seem to have a relatively clean bill of health for their primary skill position players. The same cannot be said of the Texans.
- WR Nico Collins (calf) has yet to practice this week (as of Thursday), QB C.J. Stroud (concussion) has yet to practice this week, OT George Fant (hip) has yet to practice this week, WR Noah Brown (knee) got in two limited sessions to start the week, and TE Dalton Schultz managed two full practices as he attempts to return from a hamstring injury.
- Noah Brown brings tantalizing ceiling to the table in this spot but there are enough uncertainties mixed in with an offense that prefers to hold its top option in the sub-80 percent snap rate range that he is by no means a smash, lock button play.
How houston Will Try To Win ::
Davis Mills season appears to be upon us after C.J. Stroud left the team’s Week 14 game with a concussion. The fact that Stroud has not practiced in any fashion this week hints at his progress through the league’s concussion protocol, likely multiple steps from earning clearance and hinting at a likely absence this week. Equally as dire for how this team wants to operate is the presence of both offensive tackles on the injury report, with George Fant appearing likely to miss and Laremy Tunsil working through a knee injury that kept him from practice on Wednesday. Tunsil did manage to upgrade to a full practice Thursday so he should play, but a large part of what makes the Texans run game so dynamic is their ability to get their athletic tackles into the second level through dynamic zone-gap blocking schemes. Nico Collins appears unlikely to play and Tank Dell is out for the rest of the season. This team got bit hard by the injury bug over the previous two weeks. That leaves us with a lot of guesswork as we try and piece together their likeliest plan of attack against a defense better attacked through the air. The Texans are near the middle of pack in PROE, plays per game (63.5, 18th), pass attempts per game (34.5, 16th), and rush attempts per game (26.2, 19th).
Devin Singletary seemed to reassert himself as the unquestioned lead back for the Texans in Week 14 after Dameon Pierce played just five fewer snaps in Week 13, playing a solid 57 percent of the offensive snaps and handling 16 running back opportunities to the five of Pierce and four of Dare Ogunbowale. Even so, the poor matchup (Titans have held opposing backs to 3.8 yards per carry and limited opposing backfields to 20.1 DK points per game), uncertainties surrounding the expected efficiency of the offense, elite red zone defense of the Titans (have allowed the lowest red zone touchdown rate in the league at 37.50 percent), and likely absence of one of the team’s elite offensive tackles is enough to put a damper on expectations in this spot.
Nico Collins has yet to practice this week with a calf strain, which appears to be similar to the one that he suffered in Week 9. He would go on to miss the following game the last time, which appears likely to be the case again here. With Tank Dell done for the season, primary wide receiver duties should fall on Noah Brown’s intriguing shoulders. That should also provide significant run for John Metchie and Xavier Hutchinson, both of whom played 50 percent or more of the offensive snaps last week after Collins left after just three offensive snaps. Robert Woods’ role in the offense should not change significantly, while tight end Dalton Schultz appears set to return from a two game absence. We’ve talked about this all season, but it bears repeating here – the Texans have utilized a tight rotation of four wide receivers throughout the season, which should once again be the case here. That should limit Brown, Woods, and Hutchinson to sub-80 percent snap rates, while Metchie is the likeliest to be the primary situational pass-catcher in that group. That means, like always, these pass-catchers are primarily useful for their expected per-target efficiency, which could take a significant hit with Davis Mills under center. Nobody here is a surefire smash play while Noah Brown brings the highest ceiling of the lot in a matchup that should tilt additional volume to the air.
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