Game Overview ::
By hilow >>
- Packers RB AJ Dillon (thumb) has yet to practice this week (as of Thursday) after reportedly breaking his thumb in the team’s Week 14 loss to the Giants.
- Packers RB Aaron Jones (knee) got in two limited sessions to begin the week after missing the previous three games.
- Packers WR Christian Watson (hamstring) has yet to practice this week after missing Week 14.
- Packers CB Eric Stokes (IR, hamstring) saw his 21-day practice window open and got in two full practices to start the week – he appears likely to return to action against the Buccaneers.
- Packers WR Dontayvion Wicks (ankle) missed practice Wednesday before returning to a limited session Thursday – he appears likely to play against the Buccaneers.
- Buccaneers WR Chris Godwin (knee) has yet to practice this week but has been on the team’s practice report for a few weeks and has yet to miss a game.
- Buccaneers CB Carlton Davis (groin) and S Ryan Neal (back) have yet to practice this week.
- There aren’t a ton of paths to this game environment erupting into something worthy of team and game stacks. That said, each offense is expected to be highly concentrated, making select pieces worthy of one-off and mini-correlation status.
How tampa bay Will Try To Win ::
The Buccaneers rank 22nd in points per game (20.2), 22nd in plays per game (61.5), 17th in PROE, 19th in pass attempts per game (33.8), and 13th in points allowed per game (20.8). They are average in every sense of the word. It then makes sense that they currently sit at 6-7, somehow atop the tragic NFC South division. Like the Packers, the Buccaneers are typically involved in close affairs, with just two of their previous eight games decided by more than one score. As such, this team should be viewed as highly unlikely to push game environments on their own. What they lack in team upside they make up for in concentration as their five primary skill position players all play near every-down roles, including running back Rachaad White, wide receivers Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, and Trey Palmer, and tight end Cade Otton. Moreover, the offense has evolved into extreme concentration, primarily amongst White and Evans of late, providing solid paths to upside for each player.
As was mentioned above, Rachaad White has seen one of the most robust workloads of all backs in the league during the second half of the season. He has played 80 percent or more of the offensive snaps in seven of the previous eight games for the Buccaneers, averaging 20.9 running back opportunities over the previous eight games played. That has resulted in no less than 15.9 DK points in any game during that span but has increased his salary to a point where he has returned a 4x salary multiplier (on his Week 15 salary) just once in eight games, which is below the typical 25 percent hit rate for player pricing on the site. The matchup on the ground is a good one against a Packers defense allowing 4.6 yards per carry behind 1.33 yards allowed before contact this season, with recent box scores of primary backs of 20-86-2 on the ground to Saquon Barkley, 18-110-1 on the ground to Isiah Pacheco, 26-125-1 on the ground to the combination of David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs, and 10-64 on the ground to the ghost of Austin Ekeler (RIP). White averages just 3.7 yards per carry this season, but the matchup and robust workload combine to present a solid opportunity at piercing the 100-yard rushing bonus, with additional work through the air all but guaranteed (White averages 4.1 targets per game and is most definitely one of the players that can do enough through the air to negate the need for multiple touchdowns).
Mike Evans has six games of double-digit targets this season, three of which have occurred in his previous five games played. Even so, he has just three games all season over 100 yards, with all three instances seeing the veteran wide receiver go for 143 yards or more. In other words, Evans tends to hit hard when he hits, akin to a Nico Collins or DK Metcalf. As was mentioned above, the Buccaneers average “just” 33.8 pass attempts per game, making it exceedingly unlikely that a player not named Mike Evans sees double-digit targets, with Chris Godwin’s three such instances the only other times someone other than Evans has seen double-digit looks this season. The pass offense is highly concentrated from a snap rate perspective, with only Evans and White likely to garner the upside to be relevant in GPPs on a weekly basis. The matchup through the air against the ultra-prevent, Joe Barry defense provides a slight boost to the expectation for White and a slight dent to the downfield work of Mike Evans, although it should be noted that Evans has actually seen a more robust route tree this season compared to seasons’ past.
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