saturday slate Overview ::
By hilow >>
- Vikings RB Alexander Mattison (ankle) has yet to practice this week (as of Wednesday), making it a strong possibility that he misses the team’s Week 15 game against the Bengals on a short week. UPDATE: Mattison has now been ruled out.
- Vikings WR Justin Jefferson (chest) got in two limited sessions to start the practice week and has told reporters that he intends to play against the Bengals.
- Bengals WR Ja’Marr Chase (ankle) started the week with a ‘DNP’ but upgraded to a limited showing on Wednesday. He also told reporters that he intends to play on Saturday.
- Bengals WR Tyler Boyd (foot/ankle) got in two limited sessions to start the practice week and appears set to play against the Vikings.
- Steelers QB Kenny Pickett (ankle) has been ruled out for Saturday, paving the way for another Mitchell Trubisky start against the Colts.
- Steelers WR Diontae Johnson (knee) did not practice Wednesday after not being on the team’s injury report Tuesday – monitor this situation moving forward.
- Steelers RB Najee Harris (knee) upgraded from a ‘DNP’ to a limited participant on Wednesday – he should be good to go against the Colts.
- Steelers LB T.J. Watt (concussion) cleared protocol and is on track to play in Week 15.
- Colts RB Jonathan Taylor (thumb) did not practice Tuesday or Wednesday and appears likely to miss his third consecutive game against the Steelers in Week 15. UPDATE: Taylor was ruled out on Thursday afternoon.
- Broncos TE Greg Dulcich (hamstring, IR) got in a full practice Wednesday for the first time since re-injuring his hamstring – notable as he works his way back from injured reserve.
- Lions C Frank Ragnow (toe/back/knee) returned to a limited practice Wednesday after missing the previous two contests.
- The Vikings-Bengals game carries the lowest game total on the slate but it also carries the widest range of outcomes with respect to expected game environment.
- The second game on the slate will be largely left up to the Colts to change from a game environment driven by the Pittsburgh defense. The Steelers continue to try to “win dirty” by shortening games into the fourth quarter, currently sitting at a 7-6 record with a -40 point differential.
How MINNESOTA Will Try To Win ::
The Vikings have been forced to undergo multiple identity shifts this season but the overarching state of this team entering Week 15 is one anchored with their defense. After starting the season surrendering 24.4 points per game to the Buccaneers (20), Eagles (34), Chargers (28), Panthers (13), and Chiefs (27), the Vikings have allowed just 15.0 points per game over the subsequent eight games, with only the Falcons, of all teams, scoring more than a relatively modest 21 points against them. Not that the Vikings played a murderer’s row of opponents during that span (Bears twice, Packers, Falcons, 49ers, Saints, Broncos and Raiders), but they did hold the 49ers to just 17 points. Either way, Brian Flores has this defense playing better than most units around the league over a significant enough sample size (half an NFL season) to warrant respect from the league. For comparison, the 49ers rank first in the league in points allowed per game at 15.8 this season. Based on the state of the offense, this is the only reason this team currently sits at a 7-6 record and in control of their playoff destiny out of the NFC. As for that offense, the Vikings are about as downright bad as can be as they limp closer to the postseason. They lost Kirk Cousins to a season-ending Achilles injury and brought in veteran journeyman Joshua Dobbs after his exploits with the Cardinals, only to bench Dobbs in favor of Mullens after the latter replaced Dobbs late in the game in their 3-0, Week 14 “win” over the Raiders. There are further injuries which should influence Minnesota’s offensive game plan, including a banged-up Jefferson, who took a nasty hit to the midsection last week on a throw that Dobbs left him out to dry on over the middle of the field, and Mattison. From a top-down level, the Vikings carry the fourth highest pass rate over expectation (PROE) value through 14 weeks and run a top-10 offense in pace of play.
Saturday Slate Ownership Projections!
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Ty Chandler has been involved in the offense in each game since Cam Akers’ potential career-ending injury in Week 9, playing 31 percent or more of the team’s offensive snaps in each of the previous four games. Considering the only depth behind Mattison and Chandler are special-teamer Kene Nwangwu and practice-teamer Myles Gaskin, it stands to reason that Chandler’s workload would be robust with Mattison missing this contest. The upside in this backfield very clearly resides in Chandler with Mattison out, the former of whom has been the more explosive back this season. The matchup on the ground is solid (4.7 yards per carry allowed is fourth worst in the league) and Chandler is capable through the air (Chandler has 15 targets on 147 offensive snaps this season, a higher target rate than Mattison’s 41 targets on 540 offensive snaps).
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Mullens targeted T.J. Hockenson on 31 percent of his pass attempts after coming on in relief of Dobbs a week ago, completing all four targets directed at the elite tight end in the process. That said, those attempts came without Jefferson on the field after he left with injury,and the alpha wide receiver is expected to play against the Bengals in Week 15. Even so, the Bengals’ heavy zone-rate defense naturally filters production to the areas of the field where Hockenson does most of his work, with their defense ranking dead last in DK points allowed per game to opposing tight ends (17.1). Paired with the extreme pass rates we expect to see from a team with the fourth-highest PROE that is without its top running back leaves Hockenson as an elite play on the Saturday slate. More theory on this in the DFS+/Game Theory discussion below. Jefferson clearly has the talent to overcome a relatively difficult matchup for perimeter wide receivers, with the biggest risk being the unknowns regarding his expected snap rates after playing only 13 snaps before leaving with another injury in his first game in nine weeks in Week 14. The Vikings have utilized 12-personnel about 40 percent of the time in recent weeks, leaving Brandon Powell and Jalen Nailor’s snaps likely reliant on the health of Jefferson. Meanwhile, K.J. Osborn is likeliest to settle into the 60-65 percent snap-rate range as a player not likely to command many targets behind Jefferson, Hockenson, and rookie Jordan Addison. On paper, it should be those three in near every-down roles, health permitting.
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