Saturday Slate Overview ::
By Hilow >>
- Vikings RB Alexander Mattison (ankle) has yet to practice this week (as of Wednesday), making it a strong possibility that he misses the team’s Week 15 game against the Bengals on a short week. UPDATE: Mattison has now been ruled out.
- Vikings WR Justin Jefferson (chest) got in two limited sessions to start the practice week and has told reporters that he intends to play against the Bengals.
- Bengals WR Ja’Marr Chase (ankle) started the week with a ‘DNP’ but upgraded to a limited showing on Wednesday. He also told reporters that he intends to play on Saturday.
- Bengals WR Tyler Boyd (foot/ankle) got in two limited sessions to start the practice week and appears set to play against the Vikings.
- Steelers QB Kenny Pickett (ankle) has been ruled out for Saturday, paving the way for another Mitchell Trubisky start against the Colts.
- Steelers WR Diontae Johnson (knee) did not practice Wednesday after not being on the team’s injury report Tuesday – monitor this situation moving forward.
- Steelers RB Najee Harris (knee) upgraded from a ‘DNP’ to a limited participant on Wednesday – he should be good to go against the Colts.
- Steelers LB T.J. Watt (concussion) cleared protocol and is on track to play in Week 15.
- Colts RB Jonathan Taylor (thumb) did not practice Tuesday or Wednesday and appears likely to miss his third consecutive game against the Steelers in Week 15. UPDATE: Taylor was ruled out on Thursday afternoon.
- Broncos TE Greg Dulcich (hamstring, IR) got in a full practice Wednesday for the first time since re-injuring his hamstring – notable as he works his way back from injured reserve.
- Lions C Frank Ragnow (toe/back/knee) returned to a limited practice Wednesday after missing the previous two contests.
- The Vikings-Bengals game carries the lowest game total on the slate but it also carries the widest range of outcomes with respect to expected game environment.
- The second game on the slate will be largely left up to the Colts to change from a game environment driven by the Pittsburgh defense. The Steelers continue to try to “win dirty” by shortening games into the fourth quarter, currently sitting at a 7-6 record with a -40 point differential.
How dENVER Will Try To Win ::
Sean Payton has done about as good of a job as could have been expected with the Broncos this year, particularly considering the way this team started the season. After starting the year 1-5 through six weeks, the Broncos have rattled off six wins in their last seven contests and have suddenly played themselves into a potential playoff spot out of the AFC. There is yet work to be done, as they currently lose tiebreakers amongst the six teams at 7-6 fighting for two playoff spots. That said, the two teams ahead of them in the standings play each other earlier in the day (Steelers and Colts). Either way, this team should be fully motivated to continue their second-half surge towards the postseason. It would take a bit of help, but the Broncos are actually not out of the running to win the AFC West, sitting just one game behind the sputtering Chiefs (they have a much worse divisional and conference record and are tied in head-to-head this season, so the path would require them to effectively make up two games over the final four weeks). As for how this team is trying to win games, most of their recent successes can and should be attributed to their defense after allowing just 15.6 points per game during their recent seven-game surge. They are also quietly tied with the Jaguars in takeaways per game (1.8), with that number being built up considerably in the past seven weeks. That has allowed them to play a more conservative style of offense while averaging just 300.8 yards of offense per game this season.
Saturday Slate Ownership Projections!
Ownership updates automatically
Javonte Williams has been a 60-percent-plus snap rate back over the previous three games, which include two comfortable wins and a loss. During that stretch, Williams saw opportunity counts of 21, 16, and 24, with the tallies over 20 coming in the two wins. The 20.33 running back opportunities per game in that span is a solid 16 percent increase to his season-long opportunities per game figure of 17.6. Even so, the matchup is non-ideal against a Lions defense holding opponents to 3.9 yards per carry behind a surprisingly robust 1.55 yards allowed before contact, the latter of which ranks 30th in the league. The Lions have held opposing backs to the second-fewest DK points per game this season at 17.1, behind only the Cowboys at 16.6. Jaleel McLaughlin has taken on a lesser role as the primary change-of-pace back, while Samaje Perine should continue to be involved in the clear passing situations in addition to the two-minute drill.
Check the Scroll for Saturday Strategy
After jumping out of the team’s bye to set career highs in route participation in three consecutive games, electric rookie wide receiver Marvin Mims has been out-snapped by Lil’Jordan Humphrey in consecutive weeks. Jerry Jeudy has a high of 71 percent of the offensive snaps in the five games since the team’s Week 9 bye. Tight end Adam Trautman has a high of 69 percent of the offensive snaps in the previous two games. Dulcich saw his 21-day practice window opened this week but remains questionable for Week 15. Even Courtland Sutton played only 75 percent of the offensive snaps last week after being a near every-down pass catcher for the first half of the season. This pass offense is an enigma, to say the least. Even so, Sutton has scored in 10 games this season and continues to churn out viable fantasy scores through his end-zone connection with quarterback Russell Wilson. The main takeaway here is that median projection is basically not a thing with any of these pass catchers outside of the elite touchdown rate from Sutton. The Lions have been near league average in net yards allowed per pass attempt at 6.3, but there’s really nobody here that jumps off the page from a median projections standpoint, leaving this unit in the realm of high variance.
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