XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT

Week 15 begins with the Chargers visiting the Raiders for a 34-point total game with Las Vegas favored by three. The huge news here, of course, is that Justin Herbert will miss the rest of the season, leaving someone named Easton Stick as the quarterback for the Chargers. Fun. We have some other questionable tags to be aware of with Keenan Allen, Josh Jacobs, Gerald Everett, and Donald Parham, but it looks likely that they all play, and I will assume them as being in for this write-up. Jacobs looks like the guy at the most risk of missing, so I’ve put some notes on that situation in the Raiders run game section. I’m also expecting Josh Palmer to return from injured reserve. 

Las Vegas

On the Raiders side, Josh Jacobs’ role is still huge as he’s played 70% or more of the snaps in all but two games this season. Frequently unfavorable game scripts and general offensive ineffectiveness have held Jacobs back from putting up the kind of monster scores we were seeing last season, but he’s still managing a solid season and we can pencil him in for a floor of 16-18 touches with upside for (a lot) more. Should the game remain close, Jacobs has an upside to see touches into the mid/high 20s, making him an extremely strong play here in a matchup where it’s tough to see either team really dominating through the air. Behind Jacobs, Zamir White will play a very small backup role while Ameer Abdullah serves as a passing down back. The difference between them is that Abdullah is almost entirely limited to receiving work while White is more of Jacobs’ direct backup. Due to Jacobs getting a bit dinged up last week, both were proactively priced up by Draftkings to the point where they’re effectively unplayable except as wildly contrarian pieces. Should I be wrong about Jacobs, White would look like an elite volume play at $3k, while I don’t think Abdullah’s role would change all that much. Note: Josh Jacobs has been ruled out.

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In the passing game, we know the deal with the Raiders by now. Davante Adams and Jakobi Meyers will play almost every snap at wide receiver, while Hunter Renfrow plays a part-time slot role. Tre Tucker and DeAndre Carter will play minimal snaps in supporting roles and are thin punt options at best. For Adams and Meyers, the season has flipped since Jimmy Garoppolo was injured. Early in the year, Meyers’ role appeared to be almost equivalent to Davante’s, but with Aidan O’Connell taking over at quarterback, things have shifted back towards Adams. In the past five weeks, Adams has 50 targets while Meyers has just 25. That leaves Adams in a strong role given the matchup against a Chargers defense that can’t stop anyone (allowing the 4th most opposing passing yards per game), while Meyers looks a little overpriced based on his current role in this offense – though he does have the talent to spike in any given game, and the matchup is awesome (to be clear – I won’t be X’ing out Meyers entirely because he does have a ceiling here, but it’s a spot I will want to be underweight on because five targets a game just doesn’t really cut it at $8,600). Renfrow has barely been involved in offense all season until the last three weeks in which he’s seen 14 targets – his short-area role gives him low per-target upside, but at $4k, he’s fine as a value option. I would, however, prefer tight end Michael Mayer as a value play as he’s $800 cheaper than Renfrow, he’s on the field for almost double the snaps (80% or more the last six games), and his targets per game aren’t all that dissimilar. TE2 Austin Hooper is barely involved in the offense and has yet to see more than two targets in a game this season. I also want to note here: it’s possible Jimmy Garoppolo will start for the Raiders this week. If so, he’s a clear elite value option at $6k, who will also attract a TON of ownership. Given the matchup, I’d probably just play him. 

Los Angeles

saturday slate Overview ::

By hilow >>

• Vikings RB Alexander Mattison (ankle) has yet to practice this week (as of Wednesday), making it a strong possibility that he misses the team’s Week 15 game against the Bengals on a short week. UPDATE: Mattison has now been ruled out.
• Vikings WR Justin Jefferson (chest) got in two limited sessions to start the practice week and has told reporters that he intends to play against the Bengals.
• Bengals WR Ja’Marr Chase (ankle) started the week with a ‘DNP’ but upgraded to a limited showing on Wednesday. He also told reporters that he intends to play on Saturday.
• Bengals WR Tyler Boyd (foot/ankle) got in two limited sessions to start the practice week and appears set to play against the Vikings.
• Steelers QB Kenny Pickett (ankle) has been ruled out for Saturday, paving the way for another Mitchell Trubisky start against the Colts.
• Steelers WR Diontae Johnson (knee) did not practice Wednesday after not being on the team’s injury report Tuesday – monitor this situation moving forward.
• Steelers RB Najee Harris (knee) upgraded from a ‘DNP’ to a limited participant on Wednesday – he should be good to go against the Colts.
• Steelers LB T.J. Watt (concussion) cleared protocol and is on track to play in Week 15.
• Colts RB Jonathan Taylor (thumb) did not practice Tuesday or Wednesday and appears likely to miss his third consecutive game against the Steelers in Week 15. UPDATE: Taylor was ruled out on Thursday afternoon.
• Broncos TE Greg Dulcich (hamstring, IR) got in a full practice Wednesday for the first time since re-injuring his hamstring – notable as he works his way back from injured reserve.
• Lions C Frank Ragnow (toe/back/knee) returned to a limited practice Wednesday after missing the previous two contests.
• The Vikings-Bengals game carries the lowest game total on the slate but it also carries the widest range of outcomes with respect to expected game environment.
• The second game on the slate will be largely left up to the Colts to change from a game environment driven by the Pittsburgh defense. The Steelers continue to try to “win dirty” by shortening games into the fourth quarter, currently sitting at a 7-6 record with a -40 point differential.

How MINNESOTA Will Try To Win ::

The Vikings have been forced to undergo multiple identity shifts this season but the overarching state of this team entering Week 15 is one anchored with their defense. After starting the season surrendering 24.4 points per game to the Buccaneers (20), Eagles (34), Chargers (28), Panthers (13), and Chiefs (27), the Vikings have allowed just 15.0 points per game over the subsequent eight games, with only the Falcons, of all teams, scoring more than a relatively modest 21 points against them. Not that the Vikings played a murderer’s row of opponents during that span (Bears twice, Packers, Falcons, 49ers, Saints, Broncos and Raiders), but they did hold the 49ers to just 17 points. Either way, Brian Flores has this defense playing better than most units around the league over a significant enough sample size (half an NFL season) to warrant respect from the league. For comparison, the 49ers rank first in the league in points allowed per game at 15.8 this season. Based on the state of the offense, this is the only reason this team currently sits at a 7-6 record and in control of their playoff destiny out of the NFC. As for that offense, the Vikings are about as downright bad as can be as they limp closer to the postseason. They lost Kirk Cousins to a season-ending Achilles injury and brought in veteran journeyman Joshua Dobbs after his exploits with the Cardinals, only to bench Dobbs in favor of Mullens after the latter replaced Dobbs late in the game in their 3-0, Week 14 “win” over the Raiders. There are further injuries which should influence Minnesota’s offensive game plan, including a banged-up Jefferson, who took a nasty hit to the midsection last week on a throw that Dobbs left him out to dry on over the middle of the field, and Mattison. From a top-down level, the Vikings carry the fourth highest pass rate over expectation (PROE) value through 14 weeks and run a top-10 offense in pace of play.

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Ty Chandler has been involved in the offense in each game since Cam Akers’ potential career-ending injury in Week 9, playing 31 percent or more of the team’s offensive snaps in each of the previous four games. Considering the only depth behind Mattison and Chandler are special-teamer Kene Nwangwu and practice-teamer Myles Gaskin, it stands to reason that Chandler’s workload would be robust with Mattison missing this contest. The upside in this backfield very clearly resides in Chandler with Mattison out, the former of whom has been the more explosive back this season. The matchup on the ground is solid (4.7 yards per carry allowed is fourth worst in the league) and Chandler is capable through the air (Chandler has 15 targets on 147 offensive snaps this season, a higher target rate than Mattison’s 41 targets on 540 offensive snaps).

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Mullens targeted T.J. Hockenson on 31 percent of his pass attempts after coming on in relief of Dobbs a week ago, completing all four targets directed at the elite tight end in the process. That said, those attempts came without Jefferson on the field after he left with injury,and the alpha wide receiver is expected to play against the Bengals in Week 15. Even so, the Bengals’ heavy zone-rate defense naturally filters production to the areas of the field where Hockenson does most of his work, with their defense ranking dead last in DK points allowed per game to opposing tight ends (17.1). Paired with the extreme pass rates we expect to see from a team with the fourth-highest PROE that is without its top running back leaves Hockenson as an elite play on the Saturday slate. More theory on this in the DFS+/Game Theory discussion below. Jefferson clearly has the talent to overcome a relatively difficult matchup for perimeter wide receivers, with the biggest risk being the unknowns regarding his expected snap rates after playing only 13 snaps before leaving with another injury in his first game in nine weeks in Week 14. The Vikings have utilized 12-personnel about 40 percent of the time in recent weeks, leaving Brandon Powell and Jalen Nailor’s snaps likely reliant on the health of Jefferson. Meanwhile, K.J. Osborn is likeliest to settle into the 60-65 percent snap-rate range as a player not likely to command many targets behind Jefferson, Hockenson, and rookie Jordan Addison. On paper, it should be those three in near every-down roles, health permitting.

How cincinnati Will Try To Win ::

saturday slate Overview ::

By hilow >>

• Vikings RB Alexander Mattison (ankle) has yet to practice this week (as of Wednesday), making it a strong possibility that he misses the team’s Week 15 game against the Bengals on a short week. UPDATE: Mattison has now been ruled out.
• Vikings WR Justin Jefferson (chest) got in two limited sessions to start the practice week and has told reporters that he intends to play against the Bengals.
• Bengals WR Ja’Marr Chase (ankle) started the week with a ‘DNP’ but upgraded to a limited showing on Wednesday. He also told reporters that he intends to play on Saturday.
• Bengals WR Tyler Boyd (foot/ankle) got in two limited sessions to start the practice week and appears set to play against the Vikings.
• Steelers QB Kenny Pickett (ankle) has been ruled out for Saturday, paving the way for another Mitchell Trubisky start against the Colts.
• Steelers WR Diontae Johnson (knee) did not practice Wednesday after not being on the team’s injury report Tuesday – monitor this situation moving forward.
• Steelers RB Najee Harris (knee) upgraded from a ‘DNP’ to a limited participant on Wednesday – he should be good to go against the Colts.
• Steelers LB T.J. Watt (concussion) cleared protocol and is on track to play in Week 15.
• Colts RB Jonathan Taylor (thumb) did not practice Tuesday or Wednesday and appears likely to miss his third consecutive game against the Steelers in Week 15. UPDATE: Taylor was ruled out on Thursday afternoon.
• Broncos TE Greg Dulcich (hamstring, IR) got in a full practice Wednesday for the first time since re-injuring his hamstring – notable as he works his way back from injured reserve.
• Lions C Frank Ragnow (toe/back/knee) returned to a limited practice Wednesday after missing the previous two contests.
• The Vikings-Bengals game carries the lowest game total on the slate but it also carries the widest range of outcomes with respect to expected game environment.
• The second game on the slate will be largely left up to the Colts to change from a game environment driven by the Pittsburgh defense. The Steelers continue to try to “win dirty” by shortening games into the fourth quarter, currently sitting at a 7-6 record with a -40 point differential.

How PITTSBURGH Will Try To Win ::

We’ve talked about this for a while with Mike Tomlin but it’s even more prevalent this season – this team is going to try and win dirty. As in, the Steelers are going to do what they can to keep the game close into the fourth quarter, where they’ll then look to steal away a win. The fact that the Steelers are 7-6 with a -40 point differential should highlight that point rather emphatically. They’ve attempted to do that of late through extreme rush rates and a slow pace of play, bringing their season-long rush rate over expectation (RROE) up to the fourth highest in the league in the process. The difference for this squad recently is that their run game has been effective, which wasn’t always the case for the Steelers this season. Yes, they struggled to 2.8 yards per carry against the solid Patriots defense in Week 14, but this team had performed as one of the most efficient rushing attacks over the second half of the season prior to that clunker. Considering Pickett has already been ruled out for Saturday and the team will be forced to start Trubisky, it’s safe to say that we expect the Steelers to ride their run game for as long as possible against a Colts defense finally getting healthier. Although Trubisky is not necessarily known for his efficiency nor for his accuracy, he does bring an ability to throw downfield that the team had largely been lacking with Pickett under center. Either way, expect the Steelers to look to control this game with their defense while their offense aims to not lose the game, the chances of which are raised due to the likely return of Watt after he played sparingly in Week 14 following concussion symptoms. The historical splits with Watt on versus off the field for the Pittsburgh defense are startling, to say the least. In other words, this dude is vital to the success of Pittsburgh’s game plan here.

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It’s been three weeks since Tomlin declared Jaylen Warren the “starter,” which has resulted in a slightly lower snap rate and slightly fewer opportunities per game than he averaged prior to the anointment. Makes sense. This backfield is very much still a split backfield between Warren and Harris, with Harris the likelier back to see green-zone touches (and goal-line carries) and Warren the likelier back to see enough receiving work to offset the need for multiple touchdowns. The Colts have allowed 16 total scores to opposing backfields this season, second most in the league behind only the Panthers. The pure rushing matchup is a net positive on paper against a Colts defense allowing a moderate 4.2 yards per carry but yielding 1.41 yards allowed before contact. That said, they just got back Grover Stewart after a prolonged absence, and his presence has made a significant impact against the run this season.

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The largest impact to the expectations for this Pittsburgh passing game (beyond the hit or miss aspects invoked through Trubisky) is the status of Johnson, who missed Wednesday’s practice with a knee injury after not appearing on the injury report Tuesday. The team held a walkthrough Tuesday, which introduces further uncertainties as to when the knee injury occurred (it’s difficult to injure your knee when you don’t have a practice). That makes his situation difficult to get a read on as I write this on Thursday morning, before the team has held its practice. The Steelers have utilized a frustratingly wide rotation of pass catchers since the firing of Matt Canada, building their offense primarily around 12-personnel in the process. That has left only George Pickens with a snap rate over a modest 73 percent in any of the previous three games (twice, 80 percent and 86 percent). As such, only Pat Freiermuth (11-target game in Week 12) has seen more than a modest seven targets in a game during that span, and that came against the Bengals, who we talked about above as being an extreme tight-end-funnel defense. In other words, it’s very difficult to get a read on this pass offense in its current state (Canada gone and Trubisky under center), and even more so due to the uncertainty surrounding Johnson.

How indianapolis Will Try To Win ::

Saturday Slate Overview ::

By Hilow >>

• Vikings RB Alexander Mattison (ankle) has yet to practice this week (as of Wednesday), making it a strong possibility that he misses the team’s Week 15 game against the Bengals on a short week. UPDATE: Mattison has now been ruled out.
• Vikings WR Justin Jefferson (chest) got in two limited sessions to start the practice week and has told reporters that he intends to play against the Bengals.
• Bengals WR Ja’Marr Chase (ankle) started the week with a ‘DNP’ but upgraded to a limited showing on Wednesday. He also told reporters that he intends to play on Saturday.
• Bengals WR Tyler Boyd (foot/ankle) got in two limited sessions to start the practice week and appears set to play against the Vikings.
• Steelers QB Kenny Pickett (ankle) has been ruled out for Saturday, paving the way for another Mitchell Trubisky start against the Colts.
• Steelers WR Diontae Johnson (knee) did not practice Wednesday after not being on the team’s injury report Tuesday – monitor this situation moving forward.
• Steelers RB Najee Harris (knee) upgraded from a ‘DNP’ to a limited participant on Wednesday – he should be good to go against the Colts.
• Steelers LB T.J. Watt (concussion) cleared protocol and is on track to play in Week 15.
• Colts RB Jonathan Taylor (thumb) did not practice Tuesday or Wednesday and appears likely to miss his third consecutive game against the Steelers in Week 15. UPDATE: Taylor was ruled out on Thursday afternoon.
• Broncos TE Greg Dulcich (hamstring, IR) got in a full practice Wednesday for the first time since re-injuring his hamstring – notable as he works his way back from injured reserve.
• Lions C Frank Ragnow (toe/back/knee) returned to a limited practice Wednesday after missing the previous two contests.
• The Vikings-Bengals game carries the lowest game total on the slate but it also carries the widest range of outcomes with respect to expected game environment.
• The second game on the slate will be largely left up to the Colts to change from a game environment driven by the Pittsburgh defense. The Steelers continue to try to “win dirty” by shortening games into the fourth quarter, currently sitting at a 7-6 record with a -40 point differential.

How dENVER Will Try To Win ::

Sean Payton has done about as good of a job as could have been expected with the Broncos this year, particularly considering the way this team started the season. After starting the year 1-5 through six weeks, the Broncos have rattled off six wins in their last seven contests and have suddenly played themselves into a potential playoff spot out of the AFC. There is yet work to be done, as they currently lose tiebreakers amongst the six teams at 7-6 fighting for two playoff spots. That said, the two teams ahead of them in the standings play each other earlier in the day (Steelers and Colts). Either way, this team should be fully motivated to continue their second-half surge towards the postseason. It would take a bit of help, but the Broncos are actually not out of the running to win the AFC West, sitting just one game behind the sputtering Chiefs (they have a much worse divisional and conference record and are tied in head-to-head this season, so the path would require them to effectively make up two games over the final four weeks). As for how this team is trying to win games, most of their recent successes can and should be attributed to their defense after allowing just 15.6 points per game during their recent seven-game surge. They are also quietly tied with the Jaguars in takeaways per game (1.8), with that number being built up considerably in the past seven weeks. That has allowed them to play a more conservative style of offense while averaging just 300.8 yards of offense per game this season.

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Javonte Williams has been a 60-percent-plus snap rate back over the previous three games, which include two comfortable wins and a loss. During that stretch, Williams saw opportunity counts of 21, 16, and 24, with the tallies over 20 coming in the two wins. The 20.33 running back opportunities per game in that span is a solid 16 percent increase to his season-long opportunities per game figure of 17.6. Even so, the matchup is non-ideal against a Lions defense holding opponents to 3.9 yards per carry behind a surprisingly robust 1.55 yards allowed before contact, the latter of which ranks 30^th in the league. The Lions have held opposing backs to the second-fewest DK points per game this season at 17.1, behind only the Cowboys at 16.6. Jaleel McLaughlin has taken on a lesser role as the primary change-of-pace back, while Samaje Perine should continue to be involved in the clear passing situations in addition to the two-minute drill.

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After jumping out of the team’s bye to set career highs in route participation in three consecutive games, electric rookie wide receiver Marvin Mims has been out-snapped by Lil’Jordan Humphrey in consecutive weeks. Jerry Jeudy has a high of 71 percent of the offensive snaps in the five games since the team’s Week 9 bye. Tight end Adam Trautman has a high of 69 percent of the offensive snaps in the previous two games. Dulcich saw his 21-day practice window opened this week but remains questionable for Week 15. Even Courtland Sutton played only 75 percent of the offensive snaps last week after being a near every-down pass catcher for the first half of the season. This pass offense is an enigma, to say the least. Even so, Sutton has scored in 10 games this season and continues to churn out viable fantasy scores through his end-zone connection with quarterback Russell Wilson. The main takeaway here is that median projection is basically not a thing with any of these pass catchers outside of the elite touchdown rate from Sutton. The Lions have been near league average in net yards allowed per pass attempt at 6.3, but there’s really nobody here that jumps off the page from a median projections standpoint, leaving this unit in the realm of high variance.

How detroit Will Try To Win ::

Game Overview ::

By hilow >>

• Packers RB AJ Dillon (thumb) has yet to practice this week (as of Thursday) after reportedly breaking his thumb in the team’s Week 14 loss to the Giants.
• Packers RB Aaron Jones (knee) got in two limited sessions to begin the week after missing the previous three games.
• Packers WR Christian Watson (hamstring) has yet to practice this week after missing Week 14.
• Packers CB Eric Stokes (IR, hamstring) saw his 21-day practice window open and got in two full practices to start the week – he appears likely to return to action against the Buccaneers.
• Packers WR Dontayvion Wicks (ankle) missed practice Wednesday before returning to a limited session Thursday – he appears likely to play against the Buccaneers.
• Buccaneers WR Chris Godwin (knee) has yet to practice this week but has been on the team’s practice report for a few weeks and has yet to miss a game.
• Buccaneers CB Carlton Davis (groin) and S Ryan Neal (back) have yet to practice this week.
• There aren’t a ton of paths to this game environment erupting into something worthy of team and game stacks. That said, each offense is expected to be highly concentrated, making select pieces worthy of one-off and mini-correlation status.

How tampa bay Will Try To Win ::

The Buccaneers rank 22^nd in points per game (20.2), 22^nd in plays per game (61.5), 17^th in PROE, 19^th in pass attempts per game (33.8), and 13^th in points allowed per game (20.8). They are average in every sense of the word. It then makes sense that they currently sit at 6-7, somehow atop the tragic NFC South division. Like the Packers, the Buccaneers are typically involved in close affairs, with just two of their previous eight games decided by more than one score. As such, this team should be viewed as highly unlikely to push game environments on their own. What they lack in team upside they make up for in concentration as their five primary skill position players all play near every-down roles, including running back Rachaad White, wide receivers Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, and Trey Palmer, and tight end Cade Otton. Moreover, the offense has evolved into extreme concentration, primarily amongst White and Evans of late, providing solid paths to upside for each player.

As was mentioned above, Rachaad White has seen one of the most robust workloads of all backs in the league during the second half of the season. He has played 80 percent or more of the offensive snaps in seven of the previous eight games for the Buccaneers, averaging 20.9 running back opportunities over the previous eight games played. That has resulted in no less than 15.9 DK points in any game during that span but has increased his salary to a point where he has returned a 4x salary multiplier (on his Week 15 salary) just once in eight games, which is below the typical 25 percent hit rate for player pricing on the site. The matchup on the ground is a good one against a Packers defense allowing 4.6 yards per carry behind 1.33 yards allowed before contact this season, with recent box scores of primary backs of 20-86-2 on the ground to Saquon Barkley, 18-110-1 on the ground to Isiah Pacheco, 26-125-1 on the ground to the combination of David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs, and 10-64 on the ground to the ghost of Austin Ekeler (RIP). White averages just 3.7 yards per carry this season, but the matchup and robust workload combine to present a solid opportunity at piercing the 100-yard rushing bonus, with additional work through the air all but guaranteed (White averages 4.1 targets per game and is most definitely one of the players that can do enough through the air to negate the need for multiple touchdowns).

Mike Evans has six games of double-digit targets this season, three of which have occurred in his previous five games played. Even so, he has just three games all season over 100 yards, with all three instances seeing the veteran wide receiver go for 143 yards or more. In other words, Evans tends to hit hard when he hits, akin to a Nico Collins or DK Metcalf. As was mentioned above, the Buccaneers average “just” 33.8 pass attempts per game, making it exceedingly unlikely that a player not named Mike Evans sees double-digit targets, with Chris Godwin’s three such instances the only other times someone other than Evans has seen double-digit looks this season. The pass offense is highly concentrated from a snap rate perspective, with only Evans and White likely to garner the upside to be relevant in GPPs on a weekly basis. The matchup through the air against the ultra-prevent, Joe Barry defense provides a slight boost to the expectation for White and a slight dent to the downfield work of Mike Evans, although it should be noted that Evans has actually seen a more robust route tree this season compared to seasons’ past. 

How green bay Will Try To Win ::

Game Overview ::

By mike johnson >>

• Zach Wilson came back with a bang, posting his best game of the season in a Week 14 rout of the Texans.
• These teams met just a couple of weeks ago on a short week the day after Thanksgiving, but it should have a very different feel this week with the Jets offense looking more functional.
• There are potential weather concerns in the forecast with high winds expected in Miami over the weekend.
• Miami is playing on a short week after being upset by the Titans on Monday night in a fourth quarter meltdown.
• The Dolphins are also dealing with several injuries to key players on both sides of the ball, including their skill players.

How new york Will Try To Win ::

The Jets are still fighting this season and scored 30 points last week for only the second time all season. That game was also the first time they had scored more than 16 points since October 15th. After benching Zach Wilson a few weeks ago for the Tim Boyle experience, the Jets came crawling back, and Wilson rewarded them with one of his better games of the season, completing 75% of his passes and breaking the 300-yard mark for the first time all year. The Jets defense continued its high level of play, and that, combined with a semi-functioning offense, allowed New York to resemble the type of team that many expected entering the season. On the surface, the Jets are out of the playoff race, however, given the nature of the AFC this year and how many teams have very bad quarterback and injury situations, it is not impossible for the Jets to sneak in if they were able to rattle off four straight wins to end the year. Looking at their schedule, this is the big game that stands in their way. Remaining games against the Commanders and Patriots likely have the Jets as favorites, and they also play the Browns who are on their fourth starting quarterback with mounting defensive injuries. It isn’t likely, but stranger things have happened.

None of that will matter if the Jets can’t find a way to beat the Dolphins this week. Miami’s defense has looked very good against weaker opponents this season but had a meltdown late in the game against the Titans that cost them a victory. The recipe from the Titans could be one that the Jets try to emulate, as the Titans were able to move the ball through the air with their stud #1 WR DeAndre Hopkins and dynamic pass catching back Tyjae Spears. Garrett Wilson and Breece Hall can also fit those roles and it is easy to see the comparison of the young gunslinging and inconsistent QBs, Will Levis and Zach Wilson. Coming off his best game, a game where the Jets opened things up and let him make plays to get ahead of the sticks rather than predictable runs that left the Jets in tougher late down situations, Wilson is the type of streaky QB who could string together some nice games to end the year. Wilson, Hall, and Tyler Conklin will be the focal points of the offense once again, and we should expect New York to try to emulate what worked in Week 14 as far as trusting Wilson more on early downs. The Dolphins blitz at the 4th lowest rate in the NFL and are a team that has shown cracks recently and has several starters battling injuries after already losing star edge rusher Jaelan Phillips. Zach Wilson should have time and opportunity to make plays and the Jets should enter the game expecting to need to score some points against the elite Miami offense.

How miami Will Try To Win ::

Game Overview ::

By papy324 >>

• The Giants’ offense has found new life with Tommy DeVito. They’ve improved from an average of 11.2 points per game to 20.5 points per game in DeVito’s starts. 
• The 6-7 Saints are in a three-way tie for first place in the listless NFC South. This game has a lot of real-life importance for them.
• Derek Carr is off the injury report for the first time since Week 10. 
• Alvin Kamara and Saquon Barkley are the engines that drive their respective offenses, and both defenses are weaker against the run than against the pass. 
• The Giants’ passing game is cheap, but it draws a tough matchup against a Saints defense that has forced opponents to the ground.

How NEW YORK Will Try To Win ::

The 5-8 Giants come into Week 15 riding a three-game win streak. It seemed almost impossible that the Giants could win three straight a month ago. They were sporting the lowest total points and worst point differential in the league (dubious distinctions which now belong to the Patriots/Panthers). Enter Tommy “funny like a clown” DeVito. After getting stomped by Dallas (who look like the best team in the league) DeVito breathed new life into the left-for-dead Giants offense. The Giants have averaged a pathetic 11.2 points per game in games DeVito hasn’t started compared to 20.5 points per game with him under center. Those games have come against Dallas // Wash / /NE // GB.  That’s not a list of cupcake defenses, and while DeVito is a raw passer, he has been efficient (66% completion percentage) and a threat (4.6 40-yard dash) with his legs. The Giants have sped up under DeVito (sixth in situational neutral pace since he took over), but still rank below average (22^nd in pace) for the year.  His success has been even more impressive when factoring in how poor (30^th ranked per PFF) the Giants’ offensive line has been this year. DeVito might not end up being a great, or even good, NFL starter, but he has given the Giants’ offense the spark it has been missing all season.  

Brain Daboll might not be as sharp as he was given credit for after coaching Josh Allen, but he is generally an above-average offensive mind who is willing to attack his opposition’s weaknesses. The Saints have been tough against the pass (ninth in DVOA) and beat up on the ground (24^th in DVOA). Teams have preferred to run against the Saints, and the Giants are adaptable but prefer to run (22^nd in Pass Rate Over Expectation), which raises the chances that they use a run-heavy game plan. Daboll has limited DeVito’s attempts to 27 // 26 // 25 // 21, which has helped lead to a 3-1 record. Daboll wants to let DeVito do just enough to win and doesn’t want to risk him turning into a pumpkin. In fairness, DeVito has been ok (16^th in PFF passing grade), and the Giants’ offense has been notably more explosive (fifth in explosive play rate) since he took over as the starter. DeVito has injected life into the offense, but it’s small sample size, and Daboll is savvy enough to know that trying to win on the ground is a smart plan against the Saints. Expect a run-heavy game plan, which should also include using DeVito as a runner.  

How NEW ORLEANS Will Try To Win ::

Game Overview ::

By hilow >>

• If you like clean injury reports, I’d advise you not to look at the injury reports from these two teams.
• That said, the Titans seem to have a relatively clean bill of health for their primary skill position players. The same cannot be said of the Texans.
• WR Nico Collins (calf) has yet to practice this week (as of Thursday), QB C.J. Stroud (concussion) has yet to practice this week, OT George Fant (hip) has yet to practice this week, WR Noah Brown (knee) got in two limited sessions to start the week, and TE Dalton Schultz managed two full practices as he attempts to return from a hamstring injury.
• Noah Brown brings tantalizing ceiling to the table in this spot but there are enough uncertainties mixed in with an offense that prefers to hold its top option in the sub-80 percent snap rate range that he is by no means a smash, lock button play.

How houston Will Try To Win ::

Davis Mills season appears to be upon us after C.J. Stroud left the team’s Week 14 game with a concussion. The fact that Stroud has not practiced in any fashion this week hints at his progress through the league’s concussion protocol, likely multiple steps from earning clearance and hinting at a likely absence this week. Equally as dire for how this team wants to operate is the presence of both offensive tackles on the injury report, with George Fant appearing likely to miss and Laremy Tunsil working through a knee injury that kept him from practice on Wednesday. Tunsil did manage to upgrade to a full practice Thursday so he should play, but a large part of what makes the Texans run game so dynamic is their ability to get their athletic tackles into the second level through dynamic zone-gap blocking schemes. Nico Collins appears unlikely to play and Tank Dell is out for the rest of the season. This team got bit hard by the injury bug over the previous two weeks. That leaves us with a lot of guesswork as we try and piece together their likeliest plan of attack against a defense better attacked through the air. The Texans are near the middle of pack in PROE, plays per game (63.5, 18^th), pass attempts per game (34.5, 16^th), and rush attempts per game (26.2, 19^th).

Devin Singletary seemed to reassert himself as the unquestioned lead back for the Texans in Week 14 after Dameon Pierce played just five fewer snaps in Week 13, playing a solid 57 percent of the offensive snaps and handling 16 running back opportunities to the five of Pierce and four of Dare Ogunbowale. Even so, the poor matchup (Titans have held opposing backs to 3.8 yards per carry and limited opposing backfields to 20.1 DK points per game), uncertainties surrounding the expected efficiency of the offense, elite red zone defense of the Titans (have allowed the lowest red zone touchdown rate in the league at 37.50 percent), and likely absence of one of the team’s elite offensive tackles is enough to put a damper on expectations in this spot.

Nico Collins has yet to practice this week with a calf strain, which appears to be similar to the one that he suffered in Week 9. He would go on to miss the following game the last time, which appears likely to be the case again here. With Tank Dell done for the season, primary wide receiver duties should fall on Noah Brown’s intriguing shoulders. That should also provide significant run for John Metchie and Xavier Hutchinson, both of whom played 50 percent or more of the offensive snaps last week after Collins left after just three offensive snaps. Robert Woods’ role in the offense should not change significantly, while tight end Dalton Schultz appears set to return from a two game absence. We’ve talked about this all season, but it bears repeating here – the Texans have utilized a tight rotation of four wide receivers throughout the season, which should once again be the case here. That should limit Brown, Woods, and Hutchinson to sub-80 percent snap rates, while Metchie is the likeliest to be the primary situational pass-catcher in that group. That means, like always, these pass-catchers are primarily useful for their expected per-target efficiency, which could take a significant hit with Davis Mills under center. Nobody here is a surefire smash play while Noah Brown brings the highest ceiling of the lot in a matchup that should tilt additional volume to the air.

How Tennessee Will Try To Win ::

Game Overview ::

By mike johnson >>

• Atlanta enters this game tied for the division lead and needs a win to improve their playoff chances.
• Three of Atlanta’s final four games are on the road.
• Last week was a glimpse of what many have hoped for from the Atlanta offense, with all of their stud playmakers (Drake London, Kyle Pitts, and Bijan Robinson) getting involved with some big plays.
• Carolina’s offense continues to look terrible despite their coaching changes.
• Both teams rank in the bottom 10 in the NFL in Pass Rate Over Expectation.
• This game has the lowest over/under on the Week 15 slate.

How atlanta Will Try To Win ::

The Falcons had control of the NFC South in their grasp in Week 14 against the Bucs, but their defense failed them and let Tampa Bay march down the field for a game-winning touchdown in the 4th quarter. Atlanta is now in a three-way tie for the divisional lead with four games to play and will end the season with a showdown with New Orleans in the Superdome. The Falcons have arguably the easiest schedule remaining of the trio and are relatively healthy right now. If they can get out of their own way and take care of business, they have a great chance to advance or at least control their own destiny when they face the Saints in Week 18.

All of that will start with this week’s matchup against a Carolina team that is lapping the field at the bottom of the NFL’s standings this season. The Panthers run defense has struggled all season, and the Falcons prefer to be a run-leaning team whenever possible. They jacked up their passing rate last week against the Bucs, who everyone tries to throw on, but we should expect a ground-focused attack from Atlanta in this matchup as they should feel they can have success in that area and are unlikely to feel much pressure to force the issue through the air against an inept Carolina offense. Falcons quarterback Desmond Ridder had a nice statistical game in Week 14 and made some great plays in their comeback attempt, but has been prone to mistakes and wildly inconsistent play throughout his career. Head coach Arthur Smith is notably conservative, and the mindset of Atlanta entering this matchup is very likely to be that they just need to be solid and not give it away. When Atlanta does pass, I would expect their tight ends and running backs to be busy as they look to provide easy opportunities for Ridder and limit his need to take chances. Drake London is coming off a huge game in Week 14, but the Panthers secondary has some solid personnel on the perimeter and hasn’t been a unit that has given up a ton of production this season through the air (in large part because teams have been able to run so easily against them). Carolina plays zone coverage at the third highest rate in the league and is likely to be most susceptible on short hitch routes and slants that attack holes in the zones as well as in the flats on screens and checkdowns, making Kyle Pitts, Jonnu Smith, and Bijan Robinson likely to be heavily involved in the low-volume passing attack. The Falcons are dead-last in the NFL in Pass Rate Over Expectation (PROE) and are facing the NFL’s 32nd-ranked run defense by DVOA – we don’t need to overthink how Atlanta will approach this one.

How carolina Will Try To Win ::

Game Overview ::

By mike johnson >>

• The Bears appear to be peaking late in the season as they have won three of their last four games. 
• The Browns have won games with four different starting quarterbacks this season, which feels like it has to be some sort of record.
• Cleveland has retooled their offense with Joe Flacco under center, shifting from an incredibly run-heavy unit to a team that has attempted 89 passes in the last two weeks.
• Both of these teams rank near the bottom of the league in pass rate over expectation (PROE) but have been airing it out more recently.
• The Browns have the league’s #1 ranked defense but are battling a lot of injuries right now and have given up 63 points in the last two weeks.

How Chicago Will Try To Win ::

The Bears emerged from their Week 13 bye and were aggressive and efficient in their victory over the Lions, as they held Detroit scoreless in the second half en route to a 28-13 victory. Chicago’s defense has emerged as a strong point lately and has improved significantly since acquiring Montez Sweat at the trade deadline. Last week, the Bears also threw at a pass rate above their expected rate and found success. Their offense is starting to click as Justin Fields has found a groove late in the season once again. The Bears have also started calling more designed runs for Fields since his return from injury, which opens them up to more potentially explosive plays and opens running lanes for the running backs, and holds linebackers on play-action concepts. All things considered, the Bears are a much more formidable team at this point in the season than their 5-8 record would indicate as they have won three of their last four games with the lone loss coming to the Lions in Week 11, a game in which Chicago held a 12-point lead with 4:15 remaining.

Fields’ primary pass catching targets are DJ Moore and Cole Kmet, with Moore operating as one of the top receivers in the league with Fields under center. Last week, the Bears gave Moore some extra usage in the running game in a Deebo Samuel-type role as they experimented with new ways to get the ball in the hands of their best player. The Browns play man coverage at the highest rate in the league and will give Moore some chances to make plays down the field. It will be important to watch the status of many key Browns defensive players, as Cleveland’s injury report is littered with difference making players from their secondary and pass rush. While the Bears offensive game plan will certainly center around the talents of Fields and Moore, their backfield will not be ignored completely. We should expect three backs to be involved, which limits the expectations for each of them individually, but Chicago should be able to move the ball a bit and sustain drives on the ground to an extent because of the lanes that Fields and the Bears scheme open up. Ultimately, the Bears offense may come crashing down to earth if the Browns defense is reasonably healthy, but there is some potential for a big offensive showing if things break a certain way later in the week. Cleveland has surrendered 92 points over the last three weeks and gave up 31 to the Ravens and 38 to the Colts earlier this season.

How Cleveland Will Try To Win ::

Game Overview ::

By hilow >>

• We might have had a different view on this game two weeks ago than we do in Week 15.
• Chiefs RB Isiah Pacheco (shoulder) has yet to practice this week (as of Thursday) and appears likely to miss his second consecutive game.
• Patriots RB Rhamondre Stevenson (ankle) has yet to practice this week and also appears likely to miss his second consecutive contest.
• Patriots WR Demario Douglas (concussion) got in two limited sessions, which is still super concerning considering he has missed the previous two games with a concussion.
• Patriots WR DeVante Parker (knee) returned to two limited sessions this week after missing the team’s Week 14 contest. It appears likely he returns to action against the Chiefs.
• The Chiefs went even more pass-heavy last week in the absence of Pacheco, which should carry forward to this week considering New England’s stout run defense.
• A game involving Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs has a game total of just 37.0 points, which should highlight the likeliest game environment present here.

How KANSAS CITY Will Try To Win ::

The Chiefs cruised to a 6-1 record through their first seven games but have dropped two in a row and four of their last six, falling to the third seed in the AFC in the process and somehow now just one game ahead of the Broncos in the AFC West (they were four games ahead of the Broncos after Week 7). It feels crazy to say at this point in the season, but the Chiefs still have everything from the top  seed in the AFC to missing the playoffs entirely on the table with just four games left to play. They appear set to play without their lead back again this week after falling to the Bills in Pacheco’s absence last week. We’ve talked a lot about the fact that the Chiefs are approaching games fundamentally differently this season as compared to previous years, not necessarily aiming to outscore their opponents each week this year. A defense allowing just 17.5 points per game (third fewest) has allowed them to utilize a more nuanced offensive approach, but that does not overshadow the relatively poor offensive efficiency demonstrated from this unit. We’ve seen uncharacteristically poor efficiency brought on through drops, mental mistakes, penalties, and a little less “Mahomes magic” than in seasons’ past. Either way, the Chiefs lead the league in pass rate over expectation (PROE) and rank sixth in overall pass play rate (61.34 percent), which is likely to only increase this week in the expected absence of Pacheco. Last week against the Bills without Pacheco, Mahomes attempted 43 passes to just 15 running back carries and 18 total team rush attempts, which is likely to carry forward to their game against the Patriots here.

Clyde Edwards-Helaire and Jerick McKinnon split snaps almost down the middle last week (32 for Edwards-Helaire to 30 for McKinnon), giving us a solid idea of what to expect here should Pacheco miss his second consecutive game with a shoulder injury (again, appears likely). CEH handled 11 carries and four targets to the four carries and three targets of McKinnon, while the latter remained more involved in the red zone, scoring the only running back touchdown on the week. Expect a similar breakdown against the Patriots, with an offensive game plan likely tilted heavily in favor of the pass game due to personnel limitations and previous team tendencies. The pure rushing matchup is as difficult as they come against a Patriots defense leading the league in yards allowed per carry at 3.2 behind the fewest yards allowed before contact (1.03). The Patriots have allowed 19.8 DK points per game to the position this season behind a middling 77 targets and nine touchdowns allowed.

Rookie wide receiver Rashee Rice saw his highest snap rate and route participation rate of his young career in Week 14, emerging as the top wide receiver since the team’s Week 10 bye. He joins Travis Kelce as the only near every-down pass catchers in this offense, with both playing 85 percent or more of the team’s offensive snaps a week ago. The rotation is a mess of mediocrity behind those two, with all of Skyy Moore, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Justin Watson, Kadarius Toney, Richie James, and tight end Noah Gray seeing meaningful yet sporadic snaps and usage, and none playing more than 55 percent (Watson) of the offensive snaps a week ago. Mahomes is experiencing his lowest efficiency since his rookie season as the team struggles to find that “magic,” plagued by drops, incorrect routes, and a dip in red-zone efficiency (56.25 percent red-zone touchdown rate ranks just 14^th in the league after ranking second in 2022 at 71.08 percent). This pass offense is very much “Kelce and Rice and then everyone else.” The Patriots present a pass-funnel matchup due to their top-ranked run defense, ranking near the middle of the league in net yards allowed per pass attempt but facing a deep 8.2-yard average depth of target. In standard Belichick fashion, the Patriots are near the top of the league in red-zone touchdown rate allowed (45.95 percent), cracking down where it matters most. In other words, the Chiefs are more likely to struggle in the red zone compared to their ability to move the football through the air here.

How NEW ENGLAND Will Try To Win ::

Game Overview ::

By mike johnson >>

• This is a rematch of an early season game in which Christian McCaffrey went nuts, and the 49ers dominated.
• The 49ers continue to be an unstoppable offense at full strength, scoring 27 or more points in every game this year where all of their key skill players start and finish.
• Arizona’s defense has held its own against struggling offenses but has been destroyed by solid units with good personnel.
• The Cardinals have a 2-2 record since Kyler Murray’s return and are looking to continue growth as a franchise under first-year head coach Jonathan Gannon.
• Trey McBride has emerged as the top receiving threat for Arizona and is becoming one of the top tight ends in the league.

How san francisco Will Try To Win ::

From my Week 2 NFL Edge writeup on the 49ers:

• For most teams, when people are evaluating “how” they play, it is common to reference their run-pass splits and their tempo. To me, the 49ers are a different animal altogether. The way this team is built schematically and personnel-wise, it feels more like a basketball team than a football team. Let me explain. There are five players on a basketball court. In football, the offense has 11 players, but 5 of them are offensive linemen who can’t touch the ball, which leaves six players to share the rock. Quarterback Brock Purdy rarely, if ever, runs the ball, and the 49ers basically ignore one of the five remaining players – whoever is in as their second tight end, third wide receiver, or second running back. This leaves a situation where one of four players (Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, or George Kittle) is touching the ball on basically every play for them. To illustrate my point, in the first three-quarters of the 49ers season-opening win in Pittsburgh, one of those four players touched the ball on 48 of the 53 offensive plays that didn’t end in a sack. Brock Purdy is the “point guard” of this basketball team, and Christian McCaffrey is going to get the most shots, but the “balance” here is not about run vs. pass as much as it is about the fact that they have four game-breaking players you have to account for at all times.

Here we are in Week 14, and really nothing has changed. The 49ers had 50 combined rush and pass attempts last week against the Seahawks. Of those 50 plays, there were only seven times where the ball went to someone outside Purdy and the “Big 4” for San Francisco. Three of those seven plays were runs by backup RB Jordan Mason when the 49ers were up 12 points with less than two minutes remaining. Suffice it to say that the 49ers are going to continue rolling this way for a while.

This week the 49ers travel to play an Arizona team that they already destroyed once this season. Arizona’s defense ranks 31st in the NFL in DVOA and has been an equal opportunity unit this season, ranking bottom-5 against both the run and the pass. The Cardinals have been notably awful against elite and dynamic running backs, surrendering two of the five biggest running back games of the season to CMC and Kyren Williams. This seems to set up as a CMC smash spot, although it is impossible to rule out the 49ers passing game pieces scoring the touchdowns as well. Arizona plays a relatively conservative style of defense, ranking bottom-5 in the league in blitz rate and top-5 in the league in zone coverage rate. Deebo Samuel and George Kittle are theoretically the top options against zone coverage from a schematic standpoint, but Brandon Aiyuk also ranks top-5 in the league in fantasy points per route run against zone, and we’ve seen backs smash Arizona in the passing game as well, so really it’s just a great matchup for the entire 49ers offense. In any regard, the 49ers have scored 27+ points in every game where they were fully healthy on offense, and this week, they are healthy and facing a very bad defense. They should enter this game with their usual game plan and ride their studs to another four or five-touchdown performance.

How arizona Will Try To Win ::

Game Overview ::

By mike johnson >>

• Washington’s pass defense has been abysmal this season and there appears to be no end in sight.
• The Rams almost pulled off a huge upset in Baltimore last week and their offense appears to be clicking on all cylinders, scoring 30+ points in three straight games.
• Kyren Williams has one of the best workloads of any running back in the league.
• The Commanders offense has been extraordinarily pass-heavy so far this season but was noticeably more conservative the last time we saw them in a Week 13 loss to the Dolphins. 
• This game is one of two spots on the Week 15 slate with an over/under of 50 or higher.

How washington Will Try To Win ::

The Commanders have been a source of offensive fireworks this season thanks to their offense throwing the ball at the third highest PROE in the league and their defense being the worst in the league against the pass. In a strange turn of events, however, we saw the Commanders start running the ball at the highest frequency we’ve seen all year in their Week 13 loss to the Dolphins. Despite falling behind early and by a significant margin, the Commanders had more rush attempts than pass attempts for the first time this season. The thing that made that decision even more head scratching was the fact that starting running back Brian Robinson left the game in the first half with a hamstring injury. A pass-heavy team that trailed by 3+ scores for the last 40 minutes of the game and lost its starting running back turns into a run-heavy unit. Just when you think you’ve got the NFL figured out, something like that happens and all you can do is shrug. Zooming out, it does make a bit of sense, as there was rain in the game and the field was not in great shape. If the Commanders felt like things were beyond the point where they could make a comeback, maybe they just decided to move on and get out of there and into their Week 14 bye.

Coming out of their bye, Washington faces a Rams team that is in the thick of the NFC playoff race and has been rolling offensively in recent weeks. Brian Robinson’s status is in doubt for this matchup and Washington should be expecting to need a lot of points to have a chance in this one. The Rams defense ranks bottom-10 in PFF pass rush grade while having the worst coverage grade of any secondary in the league. Los Angeles plays a high amount of zone coverage and also ranks 27th out of 32 teams in QB pressure rate. This is helpful for the Commanders, who have given up the second most QB sacks in the NFL through Week 14. Considering the fact that Washington has been very pass-heavy for most of the season, the weather will be pristine in Los Angeles on Sunday, their best runner is likely to miss the game, and the matchup indicates they will be able to protect the QB better than usual – this sets up as a spot where the Commanders can let Sam Howell rip through the air once again. While the Commanders usage of their skill players has been frustrating for fantasy, and it is hard to project any specific players for a lot of volume, the team as a whole will almost certainly have a lot of opportunities as they are unlikely to move the ball well on the ground, and they will enter the game with a pass-heavy mindset or be pushed into that mode quickly due to their leaky defense. 

How los angeles Will Try To Win ::

Game Overview ::

By mike johnson >>

• Another week, another high-profile matchup in the late-afternoon window on an NFL Sunday.
• Two aggressive passing offenses face off in a game with enormous playoff implications for both sides.
• Dak Prescott and Josh Allen rank No. 1 and No. 2 in the NFL among QBs in “expected points added”.
• The Bills are averaging 29 points per game since changing their offensive coordinator, while the Cowboys are averaging 38 points per game since opening up their offense following their Week 7 bye.
• This game sets up well for the tight ends and running backs of the Bills, as well as the receivers for the Cowboys.

How dallas Will Try To Win ::

Dallas changed its identity coming out of its bye week, putting the ball in the hands of Prescott and raising its pass rate, as well as increasing the level of aggression with which they push the ball down the field and the tempo they play with. Dallas ranks among the league leaders in both situation-neutral pace of play and PROE. Prescott has rewarded the Cowboys for their trust in him by playing at an MVP-caliber level and putting Dallas in a three-way tie atop the NFC with the Eagles and 49ers. The Cowboys have a very difficult schedule remaining, as they face the Dolphins and Lions over the next two weeks before closing out the year against the Commanders. The Cowboys made short work of the Eagles last week and should enter Buffalo extremely confident that they can get it done once again.

The Bills defense showed its vulnerability in Week 12 against the Eagles, as their elite wide receivers made big plays to keep them in the game while Jalen Hurts made plays with his legs. CeeDee Lamb and Brandin Cooks should have opportunities to make plays against the Bills man coverage, while tight end Jake Ferguson is a perfect fit for attacking the Bills in the middle of the field when they play zone. Buffalo mixes up its coverage looks, ranking 16th in the league in man-coverage rate and 17th in zone-coverage rate. Prescott has been absolutely on point this season and should be able to identify the Bills’ coverages and attack them in the optimal way regardless of how they play them. On the ground, the Cowboys got Rico Dowdle more involved last week and moved Tony Pollard into a role that more closely resembled his 2022 role than how he has been used this year. Pollard set a season high with eight targets to go along with his 16 carries, and Dowdle also set a season high with 12 carries, including seven in the first half – it isn’t like Dallas was just feeding him once the game was in hand. This could potentially unlock yet another level for the Dallas offense if the Cowboys are able to get Pollard back to the efficient and explosive back we saw in 2022 by being more calculated in their usage of him. Buffalo’s run defense ranks 29th out of 32 teams in yards per carry allowed, and the threat of the Dallas passing game should open up lanes for both Cowboys backs. The Cowboys are in great position to finally make that elusive playoff run and it has been their aggressiveness on both sides of the ball that has gotten them this far, so we shouldn’t expect that to change now.

How BUFFALO Will Try To Win ::

XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT

Sunday night has the Ravens visiting the Jags for a rather low 41.5 total in which Baltimore is favored by 3. I’m not a sides/totals bettor, but if I were, this looks like a clear over spot to me with Baltimore averaging 28 points per game and Jacksonville 24. 

Baltimore

The Ravens backfield, as usual, is a clusterfuck with no back seeing 50% of the snaps since Week 10. All of Gus Edwards, Keaton Mitchell, and Justice Hill will see the field, though Hill’s role outside of blocking is a modest one. In a matchup that very heavily favors attacking through the air, it’s hard to get excited for the Ravens backs, but a case can always be made for backs with strong goal line roles, and that describes Gus (13 carries inside the 5 yard line all season, tied for 4th in the NFL). Still, in a split backfield and a tough matchup, it’s a hard sell to me to try and find ceiling here. If I’m going to the Ravens backfield, I’d prefer Keaton Mitchell, who is in a roughly even timeshare with Gus on the ground. He’s a much more explosive runner who gets at least a little bit of passing game work to the tune of 1-2 targets a game, and he’s also $1,600 cheaper. Neither is great, but I’ll lean to Mitchell as my preferred target here.

Showdown Ownership Projections!

Ownership updates automatically

The passing game is where we’re likeliest to find upside on Baltimore. They only really have two full-time pass catchers: wide receiver Zay Flowers and tight end Isaiah Likely. Past those guys, all of Rashod Bateman, Nelson Agholor, and Odell Beckham Jr will rotate through at wide receiver, while Charlie Kolar will back up Likely at tight end. As a disappointing season for Bateman winds on, we saw his snap count plummet down to 47% last week – his 3rd lowest mark of the season and that came after three straight games of 74%+. Obviously, that could change, but I’m thinking it’s intentional with the Ravens recognizing Bateman just has not been good. At all. Instead, they’re giving more work to Odell Beckham, who HAS been pretty good (or at least better than Bateman). After starting the season off slowly, Beckham has 7+ targets in three of the Ravens last five games, including three touchdowns and three catches of 40+ yards. There’s volatility to his role, as there is with just about any Raven, but if he sees 7+ targets in this matchup, he’s underpriced at $7,200. Nelson Agholor is also on the field quite a bit, and while we haven’t seen much production from him in the last few games, he showed some upside earlier in the season. He’s a high-risk play but at $2,400, I think he’s worth the risk on some rosters. The real gems, though, are Flowers and Likely. For much of the season, Flowers has been more floor than ceiling, but he’s gone over 20 DK points in each of his last two games, and we often see rookies improve as the season goes on and they acclimate to the NFL. Flowers has 18 targets in two games since Mark Andrews went down – he’s a WR1 but not priced like one at $8,800. 

Likely is also a very strong option and equally underpriced at $6,800 – that’s normally where we see mid-tier tight ends in Showdown, and while I don’t think Likely is a Kelce // Hockenson // Kittle type, he’s more like a back-end TE1 who justifies a price in the $7k range. Since replacing Andrews, Likely has 13 targets in two games for a combined 9/123/1 line, and that gives him non-crazy odds of being in the optimal lineup without a touchdown, and a very high probability if he finds the end zone. Lamar, Flowers, Likely is a very strong way to start a roster for this one if you expect the Ravens to pass at a higher than normal rate given the Jags robust run defense (2nd in run defense DVOA). 

Jacksonville

XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT

Monday Night Football has the Eagles visiting the Seahawks for a game that currently has the Eagles favored by 2.5 with a total of 45. All of that is meaningless at this point because not one but both starting quarterbacks are questionable . . . good grief. I expect I will have to update this article tomorrow at some point, but yeah, both Jalen Hurts and Geno Smith are legitimately questionable to play. We could feasibly see Marcus Mariota against Drew Lock here. For now, I’m going to assume both starting QBs are in but will try to put some if/then stuff to share what I’m thinking if one or both miss. If we get any news in time, I’ll update the article (if we don’t get news until inactives come out, hop in the OWS Discord where we’ll be talking through how to handle things). 

Seattle

We’ll start with Seattle. Kenneth Walker made his return last week and played 56% of the snaps against 42% for Zach Charbonnet. The bad news is he only saw 13 running back opportunities, but clearly part of that was game flow driven as the Seahawks were whomped by the 49ers. The good news is five of those opportunities were targets, tied for the most he’s ever seen in a game. The matchup here may not be as bad as it looked earlier in the year, as the Eagles have slipped down to 14th in run defense DVOA, but he is very game-script sensitive. $7,800 is a very fair price, though. If Jalen Hurts plays, Walker is a very fragile play who could be game scripted out of a role in a hurry (especially if Geno Smith is out), but if Hurts misses, Walker looks like a much stronger option, as that significantly increases the chances of the game staying competitive throughout. Charbonnet held on to a solid role with 10 opportunities of his own, and in the last games we saw Walker and Charbs together, he had 7, 5, and 11 opportunities including eight targets. At $4k, he’s playable and doesn’t necessarily need a Walker injury to pay off. 

Showdown Ownership Projections!

Ownership updates automatically

In the passing game, we saw Drew Lock throw for 269 yards and 2 touchdowns last week against a tough 49ers defense. He also threw two picks, but the point here is that I think Lock can at least support some semblance of pass catching success for Seattle in a good matchup against an Eagles secondary that is 23rd in pass defense DVOA. Geno missing would be a negative to the Seattle guys, but it’s not necessarily a death sentence. Seattle will trot out DK Metcalf, Tyler Locket, and Jaxon Smith-Njigba at wide receiver, with Jake Bobo playing a modest role. We’ve seen JSN come on lately, leading the team with 18 targets in his last two games against 14 for Lockett and 13 for Metcalf. Metcalf had his huge explosion game against Dallas, but overall I think he’s wildly overpriced at $9,600 when compared to Lockett at $6,600 and JSN at $5,600. If Jalen Hurts is in, we could see very low ownership on Metcalf as people will likely flock to AJ Brown and Devonta Smith at similar price points, so we could get an opportunity to pay up to be contrarian (as we did in the Dallas game!), but in a vacuum Metcalf is the worst on-paper play of the Seattle receiving corps. 

At tight end, Seattle uses all of Noah Fant, Colby Parkinson, and Will Dissly in a rotation, which renders them all very fragile plays. Fant can get up into the ~60% snap range but despite that is averaging only about 2.5 targets per game, so these guys along with Bobo are all MME punt options. I’d take Fant as my preferred punt because he’s on the field the most, but they’re all pretty fragile options.

Philadelphia