Kickoff Sunday, Dec 17th 8:20pm Eastern

Ravens (
23.25) at

Jaguars (

Over/Under 42.5


Key Matchups
Ravens Run D
7th DVOA/27th Yards allowed per carry
Jaguars Run O
26th DVOA/30th Yards per carry
Ravens Pass D
1st DVOA/1st Yards allowed per pass
Jaguars Pass O
13th DVOA/18th Yards per pass
Jaguars Run D
6th DVOA/9th Yards allowed per carry
Ravens Run O
1st DVOA/3rd Yards per carry
Jaguars Pass D
12th DVOA/17th Yards allowed per pass
Ravens Pass O
4th DVOA/4th Yards per pass


Sunday night has the Ravens visiting the Jags for a rather low 41.5 total in which Baltimore is favored by 3. I’m not a sides/totals bettor, but if I were, this looks like a clear over spot to me with Baltimore averaging 28 points per game and Jacksonville 24. 


The Ravens backfield, as usual, is a clusterfuck with no back seeing 50% of the snaps since Week 10. All of Gus Edwards, Keaton Mitchell, and Justice Hill will see the field, though Hill’s role outside of blocking is a modest one. In a matchup that very heavily favors attacking through the air, it’s hard to get excited for the Ravens backs, but a case can always be made for backs with strong goal line roles, and that describes Gus (13 carries inside the 5 yard line all season, tied for 4th in the NFL). Still, in a split backfield and a tough matchup, it’s a hard sell to me to try and find ceiling here. If I’m going to the Ravens backfield, I’d prefer Keaton Mitchell, who is in a roughly even timeshare with Gus on the ground. He’s a much more explosive runner who gets at least a little bit of passing game work to the tune of 1-2 targets a game, and he’s also $1,600 cheaper. Neither is great, but I’ll lean to Mitchell as my preferred target here.

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The passing game is where we’re likeliest to find upside on Baltimore. They only really have two full-time pass catchers: wide receiver Zay Flowers and tight end Isaiah Likely. Past those guys, all of Rashod Bateman, Nelson Agholor, and Odell Beckham Jr will rotate through at wide receiver, while Charlie Kolar will back up Likely at tight end. As a disappointing season for Bateman winds on, we saw his snap count plummet down to 47% last week – his 3rd lowest mark of the season and that came after three straight games of 74%+. Obviously, that could change, but I’m thinking it’s intentional with the Ravens recognizing Bateman just has not been good. At all. Instead, they’re giving more work to Odell Beckham, who HAS been pretty good (or at least better than Bateman). After starting the season off slowly, Beckham has 7+ targets in three of the Ravens last five games, including three touchdowns and three catches of 40+ yards. There’s volatility to his role, as there is with just about any Raven, but if he sees 7+ targets in this matchup, he’s underpriced at $7,200. Nelson Agholor is also on the field quite a bit, and while we haven’t seen much production from him in the last few games, he showed some upside earlier in the season. He’s a high-risk play but at $2,400, I think he’s worth the risk on some rosters. The real gems, though, are Flowers and Likely. For much of the season, Flowers has been more floor than ceiling, but he’s gone over 20 DK points in each of his last two games, and we often see rookies improve as the season goes on and they acclimate to the NFL. Flowers has 18 targets in two games since Mark Andrews went down – he’s a WR1 but not priced like one at $8,800. 

Likely is also a very strong option and equally underpriced at $6,800 – that’s normally where we see mid-tier tight ends in Showdown, and while I don’t think Likely is a Kelce // Hockenson // Kittle type, he’s more like a back-end TE1 who justifies a price in the $7k range. Since replacing Andrews, Likely has 13 targets in two games for a combined 9/123/1 line, and that gives him non-crazy odds of being in the optimal lineup without a touchdown, and a very high probability if he finds the end zone. Lamar, Flowers, Likely is a very strong way to start a roster for this one if you expect the Ravens to pass at a higher than normal rate given the Jags robust run defense (2nd in run defense DVOA). 


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