Game Overview ::
By hilow >>
- We might have had a different view on this game two weeks ago than we do in Week 15.
- Chiefs RB Isiah Pacheco (shoulder) has yet to practice this week (as of Thursday) and appears likely to miss his second consecutive game.
- Patriots RB Rhamondre Stevenson (ankle) has yet to practice this week and also appears likely to miss his second consecutive contest.
- Patriots WR Demario Douglas (concussion) got in two limited sessions, which is still super concerning considering he has missed the previous two games with a concussion.
- Patriots WR DeVante Parker (knee) returned to two limited sessions this week after missing the team’s Week 14 contest. It appears likely he returns to action against the Chiefs.
- The Chiefs went even more pass-heavy last week in the absence of Pacheco, which should carry forward to this week considering New England’s stout run defense.
- A game involving Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs has a game total of just 37.0 points, which should highlight the likeliest game environment present here.
How KANSAS CITY Will Try To Win ::
The Chiefs cruised to a 6-1 record through their first seven games but have dropped two in a row and four of their last six, falling to the third seed in the AFC in the process and somehow now just one game ahead of the Broncos in the AFC West (they were four games ahead of the Broncos after Week 7). It feels crazy to say at this point in the season, but the Chiefs still have everything from the top seed in the AFC to missing the playoffs entirely on the table with just four games left to play. They appear set to play without their lead back again this week after falling to the Bills in Pacheco’s absence last week. We’ve talked a lot about the fact that the Chiefs are approaching games fundamentally differently this season as compared to previous years, not necessarily aiming to outscore their opponents each week this year. A defense allowing just 17.5 points per game (third fewest) has allowed them to utilize a more nuanced offensive approach, but that does not overshadow the relatively poor offensive efficiency demonstrated from this unit. We’ve seen uncharacteristically poor efficiency brought on through drops, mental mistakes, penalties, and a little less “Mahomes magic” than in seasons’ past. Either way, the Chiefs lead the league in pass rate over expectation (PROE) and rank sixth in overall pass play rate (61.34 percent), which is likely to only increase this week in the expected absence of Pacheco. Last week against the Bills without Pacheco, Mahomes attempted 43 passes to just 15 running back carries and 18 total team rush attempts, which is likely to carry forward to their game against the Patriots here.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire and Jerick McKinnon split snaps almost down the middle last week (32 for Edwards-Helaire to 30 for McKinnon), giving us a solid idea of what to expect here should Pacheco miss his second consecutive game with a shoulder injury (again, appears likely). CEH handled 11 carries and four targets to the four carries and three targets of McKinnon, while the latter remained more involved in the red zone, scoring the only running back touchdown on the week. Expect a similar breakdown against the Patriots, with an offensive game plan likely tilted heavily in favor of the pass game due to personnel limitations and previous team tendencies. The pure rushing matchup is as difficult as they come against a Patriots defense leading the league in yards allowed per carry at 3.2 behind the fewest yards allowed before contact (1.03). The Patriots have allowed 19.8 DK points per game to the position this season behind a middling 77 targets and nine touchdowns allowed.
Rookie wide receiver Rashee Rice saw his highest snap rate and route participation rate of his young career in Week 14, emerging as the top wide receiver since the team’s Week 10 bye. He joins Travis Kelce as the only near every-down pass catchers in this offense, with both playing 85 percent or more of the team’s offensive snaps a week ago. The rotation is a mess of mediocrity behind those two, with all of Skyy Moore, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Justin Watson, Kadarius Toney, Richie James, and tight end Noah Gray seeing meaningful yet sporadic snaps and usage, and none playing more than 55 percent (Watson) of the offensive snaps a week ago. Mahomes is experiencing his lowest efficiency since his rookie season as the team struggles to find that “magic,” plagued by drops, incorrect routes, and a dip in red-zone efficiency (56.25 percent red-zone touchdown rate ranks just 14th in the league after ranking second in 2022 at 71.08 percent). This pass offense is very much “Kelce and Rice and then everyone else.” The Patriots present a pass-funnel matchup due to their top-ranked run defense, ranking near the middle of the league in net yards allowed per pass attempt but facing a deep 8.2-yard average depth of target. In standard Belichick fashion, the Patriots are near the top of the league in red-zone touchdown rate allowed (45.95 percent), cracking down where it matters most. In other words, the Chiefs are more likely to struggle in the red zone compared to their ability to move the football through the air here.
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