XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT
Week 15 begins with the Chargers visiting the Raiders for a 34-point total game with Las Vegas favored by three. The huge news here, of course, is that Justin Herbert will miss the rest of the season, leaving someone named Easton Stick as the quarterback for the Chargers. Fun. We have some other questionable tags to be aware of with Keenan Allen, Josh Jacobs, Gerald Everett, and Donald Parham, but it looks likely that they all play, and I will assume them as being in for this write-up. Jacobs looks like the guy at the most risk of missing, so I’ve put some notes on that situation in the Raiders run game section. I’m also expecting Josh Palmer to return from injured reserve.
Las Vegas
On the Raiders side, Josh Jacobs’ role is still huge as he’s played 70% or more of the snaps in all but two games this season. Frequently unfavorable game scripts and general offensive ineffectiveness have held Jacobs back from putting up the kind of monster scores we were seeing last season, but he’s still managing a solid season and we can pencil him in for a floor of 16-18 touches with upside for (a lot) more. Should the game remain close, Jacobs has an upside to see touches into the mid/high 20s, making him an extremely strong play here in a matchup where it’s tough to see either team really dominating through the air. Behind Jacobs, Zamir White will play a very small backup role while Ameer Abdullah serves as a passing down back. The difference between them is that Abdullah is almost entirely limited to receiving work while White is more of Jacobs’ direct backup. Due to Jacobs getting a bit dinged up last week, both were proactively priced up by Draftkings to the point where they’re effectively unplayable except as wildly contrarian pieces. Should I be wrong about Jacobs, White would look like an elite volume play at $3k, while I don’t think Abdullah’s role would change all that much. Note: Josh Jacobs has been ruled out.
Showdown Ownership Projections!
Ownership updates automatically
In the passing game, we know the deal with the Raiders by now. Davante Adams and Jakobi Meyers will play almost every snap at wide receiver, while Hunter Renfrow plays a part-time slot role. Tre Tucker and DeAndre Carter will play minimal snaps in supporting roles and are thin punt options at best. For Adams and Meyers, the season has flipped since Jimmy Garoppolo was injured. Early in the year, Meyers’ role appeared to be almost equivalent to Davante’s, but with Aidan O’Connell taking over at quarterback, things have shifted back towards Adams. In the past five weeks, Adams has 50 targets while Meyers has just 25. That leaves Adams in a strong role given the matchup against a Chargers defense that can’t stop anyone (allowing the 4th most opposing passing yards per game), while Meyers looks a little overpriced based on his current role in this offense – though he does have the talent to spike in any given game, and the matchup is awesome (to be clear – I won’t be X’ing out Meyers entirely because he does have a ceiling here, but it’s a spot I will want to be underweight on because five targets a game just doesn’t really cut it at $8,600). Renfrow has barely been involved in offense all season until the last three weeks in which he’s seen 14 targets – his short-area role gives him low per-target upside, but at $4k, he’s fine as a value option. I would, however, prefer tight end Michael Mayer as a value play as he’s $800 cheaper than Renfrow, he’s on the field for almost double the snaps (80% or more the last six games), and his targets per game aren’t all that dissimilar. TE2 Austin Hooper is barely involved in the offense and has yet to see more than two targets in a game this season. I also want to note here: it’s possible Jimmy Garoppolo will start for the Raiders this week. If so, he’s a clear elite value option at $6k, who will also attract a TON of ownership. Given the matchup, I’d probably just play him.
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